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Achieving the 2025 WHO global health body-mass index targets: a modelling study on progress of the 53 countries in the WHO European region
Meeting Abstracts
Achieving the 2025 WHO global health body-mass index targets: a modelling study on progress of the 53 countries in the WHO European region Elisa Pineda*, Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero*, Martin Brown, Abbygail Jaccard, Laura Webber, Jo Jewell, João Breda
Abstract Published Online November 25, 2016 *Joint first authors Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK (E Pineda MSc, L M Sanchez-Romero PhD); UK Health Forum, London, UK (L Webber PhD, M Brown PhD, A Jaccard PhD); and Division of Non-communicable Diseases & Health Promotion through the Lifecourse, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark (J Jewell MPH, J Breda, PhD) Correspondence to: Dr Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK [email protected]
Background Obesity in the European region has more than tripled since 1980, making it one of the 21st century’s main public health challenges. To monitor the prevention and control of major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) WHO and its member states designed an NCD global monitoring framework in which countries agreed to halt obesity levels by 2025. To monitor the feasibility of achieving this goal, we aimed to project the future trends of obesity (body-mass index [BMI] ≥30 kg/m²) to 2025 for each of the 53 WHO European Region Member States. Methods We extrapolated past BMI trends using a non-linear, multivariate, categorical regression model to estimate country-specific projected prevalence of obesity in adults by 2025. We fitted the model to both measured and self-reported data from cross-sectional country-specific BMI data from nationally representative surveys collected between 1990 and 2015. BMI data were obtained from the WHO BMI database, country statistical databases, health reports, and information collected via personal communication. Findings By 2025, obesity is predicted to increase in 44 countries. If present trends continue, 33 of the 53 countries will have an obesity prevalence of 20% or more. The highest projected obesity prevalence is predicted for Ireland (43%, 95% CI 28–58). The smallest absolute increase in the projected obesity prevalence from 2015 to 2025 was in Finland (20% by 2025, 95% CI 11–29), Lithuania (24%, 10–38), and the Netherlands (14%, 10–18), each of them with an estimated absolute increase in obesity prevalence of 2% by 2025. Interpretation Despite efforts from governments, the prevalence of obesity in the European region continues to increase, and with it the health and economic burden of its associated diseases. This paints a concerning picture of the future burden of obesity-related NCDs across the region. Greater and continued effort for the implementation of effective preventive policies and interventions is required from governments if they are to halt obesity prevalence in 10 years’. The data presented by this study could be used to assess or set country-specific obesity reduction targets, as well as provide leverage for investment in obesity prevention and monitoring programmes. Funding WHO Regional Office for Europe. Contributors EP and LMS-R worked on the review of relevant literature and analyses of secondary data and modelling, and led the drafting of this abstract in consultation with coauthors. LW led the conceptualisation and shaping of this study. She drafted the outline of the abstract, and guided the analysis of secondary data and use of the model. AJ supported the development of the technical methods and interpretation of results. MB developed the extrapolation method for the projections and supported the analysis of results. JJ helped draft and review the abstract. JB conceptualised the study and helped draft the abstract. All the authors have seen and approved the final version of this abstract for publication. Declaration of interests We declare that we have no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments JB and JJ are staff members of the WHO Regional Office for Europe. The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this publication and they do not necessarily represent the decisions or the stated policy of WHO.
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Achieving the 2025 WHO global health body-mass index targets: a modelling study on progress of the 53 countries in the WHO European region Elisa Pineda*, Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero*, Martin Brown, Abbygail Jaccard, Laura Webber, Jo Jewell, João Breda
Abstract Published Online November 25, 2016 *Joint first authors Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK (E Pineda MSc, L M Sanchez-Romero PhD); UK Health Forum, London, UK (L Webber PhD, M Brown PhD, A Jaccard PhD); and Division of Non-communicable Diseases & Health Promotion through the Lifecourse, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark (J Jewell MPH, J Breda, PhD) Correspondence to: Dr Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK [email protected]
Background Obesity in the European region has more than tripled since 1980, making it one of the 21st century’s main public health challenges. To monitor the prevention and control of major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) WHO and its member states designed an NCD global monitoring framework in which countries agreed to halt obesity levels by 2025. To monitor the feasibility of achieving this goal, we aimed to project the future trends of obesity (body-mass index [BMI] ≥30 kg/m²) to 2025 for each of the 53 WHO European Region Member States. Methods We extrapolated past BMI trends using a non-linear, multivariate, categorical regression model to estimate country-specific projected prevalence of obesity in adults by 2025. We fitted the model to both measured and self-reported data from cross-sectional country-specific BMI data from nationally representative surveys collected between 1990 and 2015. BMI data were obtained from the WHO BMI database, country statistical databases, health reports, and information collected via personal communication. Findings By 2025, obesity is predicted to increase in 44 countries. If present trends continue, 33 of the 53 countries will have an obesity prevalence of 20% or more. The highest projected obesity prevalence is predicted for Ireland (43%, 95% CI 28–58). The smallest absolute increase in the projected obesity prevalence from 2015 to 2025 was in Finland (20% by 2025, 95% CI 11–29), Lithuania (24%, 10–38), and the Netherlands (14%, 10–18), each of them with an estimated absolute increase in obesity prevalence of 2% by 2025. Interpretation Despite efforts from governments, the prevalence of obesity in the European region continues to increase, and with it the health and economic burden of its associated diseases. This paints a concerning picture of the future burden of obesity-related NCDs across the region. Greater and continued effort for the implementation of effective preventive policies and interventions is required from governments if they are to halt obesity prevalence in 10 years’. The data presented by this study could be used to assess or set country-specific obesity reduction targets, as well as provide leverage for investment in obesity prevention and monitoring programmes. Funding WHO Regional Office for Europe. Contributors EP and LMS-R worked on the review of relevant literature and analyses of secondary data and modelling, and led the drafting of this abstract in consultation with coauthors. LW led the conceptualisation and shaping of this study. She drafted the outline of the abstract, and guided the analysis of secondary data and use of the model. AJ supported the development of the technical methods and interpretation of results. MB developed the extrapolation method for the projections and supported the analysis of results. JJ helped draft and review the abstract. JB conceptualised the study and helped draft the abstract. All the authors have seen and approved the final version of this abstract for publication. Declaration of interests We declare that we have no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments JB and JJ are staff members of the WHO Regional Office for Europe. The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this publication and they do not necessarily represent the decisions or the stated policy of WHO.
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