Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – Africa’s diplomatic capital

Cities 35 (2013) 255–269

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Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – Africa’s diplomatic capital Mulatu Wubneh ⇑ Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history: Received 14 January 2013 Received in revised form 24 May 2013 Accepted 9 August 2013 Available online 9 September 2013 Keywords: Urban development Primacy Housing Infrastructure services Sustainability Urbanization in Ethiopia

a b s t r a c t As the national capital, Addis Ababa remains the economic, political and administrative hub of Ethiopia. In the last 50 years, the city has gained international significance as the headquarter of the African Union (AU), UN Economic Commission for Africa (UN-ECA) and a regional office for a number of international organizations including UNDP, UNESCO and the European Economic Commission (EEC). However, like many cities in the developing world, Addis Ababa is facing a number of problems related to population growth, lack of economic opportunities, inadequate infrastructure, shortage of housing, and large areas of informal development with major environmental problems. This profile identifies some of the strategic planning elements that the city could adopt as Addis Ababa strives to develop into a premier metropolitan area for a sustainable community and a diplomatic capital. Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction As the head quarter of the African Union (AU) and the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UN-ECA), Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, is emerging as an international center with diverse economic and cultural characteristics. The city has evolved from a relatively modest size where pack animals and pedestrians shared main highways with modern automobiles to a cosmopolitan center where freeways; high rise buildings for office, shopping, hotel and restaurants; condominiums and exclusive neighborhoods with gated communities have become a common scene. Located in the central part of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa is about 5 h flight from Europe and about 3–4 h flight from many African cities as well as the Middle East. This central location together with being the headquarter of AU and UN-ECA has given Addis Ababa a significant advantage in serving as Africa’s diplomatic capital and in attracting millions of visitors that come for conferences and other site visits. Thanks to the Ethiopian Airlines, one of the most successful airlines in Africa, many of the visitors can get direct connection to Addis Ababa (Fig. 1). In terms of geography, Addis Ababa lies on the western edge of the Rift Valley escarpment at Latitude 9°20 N and 36°450 E. The city is at the foot of the Entoto range (altitude 2,900 meters) dropping down to 2300 m in the southern periphery toward the Akaki Plains. The general climate is of sub-tropical with an average temperature range of 10 °C. Beginning in mid-November temperatures are cooler (10–15 °C) particularly at night and in the early morning, rising ⇑ Tel.: +1 (252) 328 1272; fax: +1 (252) 737 1527. E-mail address: [email protected] 0264-2751/$ - see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2013.08.002

to 20–23 °C in the day time. February to May is the warm season with temperatures climbing to over 23 °C in the afternoon. June to mid-September is the long wet season when temperatures are often mild. Addis Ababa, whose name means ‘New Flower’, is indeed blooming by the day, and is undergoing rapid changes in physical structure of buildings as well as layout of streets and neighborhoods. This transformation, however, is not without challenges. Despite the dynamic growth in population and the tremendous change in physical structure of the city, there are a number of issues related to the spike in population and the capacity of the municipality to provide services such as housing, transportation, water and sanitation; land and housing; economic development; governance; environment and quality of life; and overall sustainability of the community. Many of these problems are challenging the capacity of the local government to manage growth and to provide services for a sustainable community. The objective of this paper is to analyze how these challenges are impacting the development of Addis Ababa, specifically the growth of the city as an international center. Addis Ababa is quickly becoming a focal point of international organizations. In the last ten years, several international organizations have located in the city. The municipal government has made a major stride to change the characteristics of the city through massive infrastructure investment and engaging in major revitalization programs. However, despite the effort, Addis Ababa is one of the poorest cities in Africa and the government is facing the daunting task of trying to meet the needs of the rising population. Thousands and perhaps millions of its residents are without jobs, housing or better quality services. This study will identify some of the major options that the

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Fig. 1. Addis Ababa, international connections. Source: Ethiopian Airlines.

municipal government must consider if Addis Ababa is to manage its growth and develop as a sustainable international city. This paper is organized as follows. After briefly reviewing the foundation and early development of Addis Ababa, the analysis presents an overview of the economic, social and physical characteristics of the city. It also identifies the major challenges the city faces by focusing on the demographic, housing, infrastructure and quality of life of the modern city. The conclusion outlines some of the major strategic planning objectives that the city must adopt in future directions of its development. Foundation and development in an historical context Established only about 125 years ago, Addis Ababa is a relatively young city compared to some of the major historic towns of Ethiopia such as Axum, Lalibela and Gondar. Addis Ababa is the last of the roaming capitals of Ethiopia’s emperors going back to the Axumite period in the 7th Century A.D. In 1886, Menelik II established Addis Ababa as his permanent capital. Soon the city that was initially selected for its warm climate, rich forest reserves

Fig. 2. The first municipal building of Addis Ababa.

for wood, and hot springs, became a thriving community. The establishment of permanent structures including the palace

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Fig. 3. The current municipal building of Addis Ababa.

compound (Ghibi), churches and the railway connection with Djibouti gave Addis Ababa a permanent location as the capital of the monarch (Figs. 2 and 3). The physical layout of the town was based on a cluster of settlements established on land grants given to government officials and their followers. These clusters, known as sefer (military camps) were named after the various officials of Menelik – Ras (Duke), Dejazmach, Fitawrari.1 Hence, to this day, we have neighborhoods named after Ras Kassa, Dejazmach Balcha, Fitawrari Habte Giyorgis, etc. Fig. 4 illustrates some of the early settlements of Addis Ababa. This settlement system is sometimes referred to as ‘‘Taytu’s Plan’’, after Menelik’s wife who is credited for convincing her husband to move his capital from Entoto Mountains to Finfinni (old name for Addis Ababa) where there was a large tract of land.2 The period 1900 to 1935 is characterized by the introduction of modern infrastructure including new schools, telecommunication network, and banking systems. Some of the schools such as Menelik, Tefferi Mekonnen and Empress Menen School for girls were opened during this period. Other modern facilities introduced included the postal system, banking and hospitals. Two leaders that deserve credit for the foundation and early development of Addis Ababa are Menelik II (Fig. 5) and Haile Selassie I (Fig. 6). Menelik was responsible for the establishment of the city as Ethiopia’s permanent capital, and Haile Selassie was responsible for the designation of Addis Ababa as the site of the headquarter of the Organization of African unity (OAU) that gave the city an international significance (Figs. 7 and 8). The Italian period (1936–1941), despite its short-lived colonial influence, left an indelible mark on the physical layout of Addis Ababa. Major architects and planners such as Le Corbusier (the prominent French planner) and I. Guidi and C. Valle (prominent Italian architects) worked on Addis Ababa’s plan. The Italian government had a vision of building a colonial capital to serve as a seat for Italy’s grand empire of Africa Orientale Italiana (Italian East Africa). The Italian plans proposed the development of a commercial axis (connecting Arada Ghiorgis area to the railway station) and a political axis (linking Sidest Kilo to the Imperial Palace – Ghibi, and Meskale Square), squares and open spaces connected by roads based on the Radiant City concept and the gridiron street network system. They also proposed segregated neighborhoods as the

1 These are military titles given to loyal commanders of the monarch. Their equivalent translation in the West would be Ras (Head of the military), Dejazmach (Commander of the force), Fitawrari (commander of the Advance force). 2 For a historical treatment of the founding of Addis Ababa, see works by Pankhurst (1982), Garreston (2000), Zekaria et al. (1988) and Zewde (2001).

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native and European quarters, located to the western and eastern part of the city, respectively. At the height of the Italian occupation, Addis Ababa’s population was estimated at 300,000 (CTI, 1938). The post-Italian period was a time of reconstruction and consolidation of power as Atse (King of Kings) Haile Selassie toyed with the idea of building a major city that would be a model for the rest of Africa. In 1956, Haile Selassie invited Sir Patrick Abercrombie (the planner of Greater London) to prepare a master plan for Addis Ababa. Abercrombie’s plan recommended the formation of neighborhood units as city organizing concepts with access to green areas, and the development of satellite towns connected by ring roads to accommodate the growing population of Addis Ababa. Other plans developed during the Haile Selassie period included those by Bolton Hennessy and Partners (Britain) and Louis De Marien (France) that recommended further expansion of the boundary of the city. In 1974, a military group known as Derg (committee) took control of the government. The new government declared socialism as its major philosophy guiding its political ideology and economic policies. It nationalized all rural and urban land and thereby eliminated the free-hold land system. It also instituted a registration system that controlled the movement of people, particularly those that were unemployed; individuals had to secure a permit from local administrators to move from one city to another. In 1978, the socialist government invited the Hungarian planner (C.K. Polony) to develop a ‘socialist plan’ for Addis Ababa. Polony’s plan redesigned Meskel Square (used for celebration of the True Cross) as ‘‘Revolutionary Square’’ suitable for the celebration of the socialist victory. In 1986, another master plan of Addis Ababa was prepared by an Italian technical cooperation team. This new plan focused on integrating the growth of Addis Ababa with the surrounding regions and the development of major urban centers in the periphery to provide services to the surrounding areas. In 1991, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Force (EPRDF) overthrew the socialist government and took control of the country. The new government created the federal system based on ethnic groups that decentralized power to the regions. According to the new Constitution, state sovereignty is attributed to ‘Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ rather than to the Ethiopian people as is commonly found in many liberal constitutions. Addis Ababa was given a federal status with full representation at the House of Representatives. In December 2003, the Addis Ababa municipality developed a revised master plan based on the 1986 master plan that covered the period 2001–2010. The plan focused on developing a strategic framework, action plans and local development plans (LDPs) with the objective of promoting infrastructure investment and revitalization of neighborhoods (ORAAMP, 2000).

Governance Until 1991, the governmental structure of urban areas in Ethiopia was centralized. Mayors were appointed and municipalities were directly responsible to the central government. In 1991, the EPRDF created an ethnic-based federal system and Addis Ababa was designated as a federal capital with its own governmental structure and representation at the House of Representatives at the federal level. The governmental structure includes a hierarchy of organs at the city, sub-city and woreda levels.3 At the city level, the city government includes the City Council, the Mayor, a City Cabinet, a Judicial Body and the Chief Auditor. At the sub-city and woreda levels, the organs of government include the Council, Chief Executive and a Standing Committee. 3 Until very recently, the name kebeles was used for woredas representing the lowest administrative units.

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Fig. 4. Addis Ababa and its neighborhoods during Menelik’s reign. Source: De Castro (1909).

Fig. 5. Menelik II, Founder of Addis Ababa.

According to the revised Municipal Charter, the City government has legislative power including power to levy taxes and to carry out other executive functions. The judicial body comprises city courts and woreda social committees with the authority to adjudicate matters related to land use conflict, land development,

Fig. 6. Haile Selassie I with the Lion of Judea in the background.

permits, tax appeals, municipal services and other local matters. Council members are elected every five years and they are responsible both to the city and the federal government. The executive

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Addis Ababa as a primate city

Fig. 7. Flags of African countries.

Fig. 8. The African Union (AU) Headquarter inaugurated in May 2012.

organ includes the Mayor and his/her deputy, the City Cabinet, and the City Manager and his/her deputy. Member of the executive body are drawn from the political party occupying the majority seats of the council or coalition of political parties. The sub-cities and woredas function as municipalities within their jurisdiction as set by the City Council. Sub-city and woreda council members are accountable to the residents in their respective areas and the City Council. For more on the organs of city government and their respective functions, see Proclamation No. 361/2003. Addis Ababa has ten sub-cities (kifle ketema) representing the ten administrative areas and 99 woredas (the smallest administrative units). The municipal area of the city has increased from 222 km2 in 1984 to 540 km2 in 2010. This significant growth in municipal area is the result of the incorporation of surrounding small communities and rural areas. The peri-urban area of the city has continued to expand in a spontaneous or unplanned way, which is a distinctive characteristic of the growth of Addis Ababa (Fig. 9). Although Addis Ababa has a well-structured governing system, there are often complaints of the city failing to practice the principles of good governance – transparency, effectiveness, accountability and responsiveness to meet the needs of residents. Citizens complain of corruption among officials, poor municipal service including delays in securing permits (building permits, license), unreasonable tax assessment, offices being staffed with employees selected based on party affiliation and loyalty rather than professional competence, and overwhelming traffic congestion that sometimes brings traffic to a halt. For more on corruption and poor city services, see Plummer (2012), pp. 302–305 and Teshome and et al. (2012).

When Ethiopia conducted its First Census in 1984, Addis Ababa’s population was estimated at 1.42 million (CSA, 1987). By the time of the Third Census in 2007, the population had almost doubled to 2.7 million, representing an increase of about 4.3% per annum (CSA, 2007a). The 2010 CSA estimate of the population of Addis Ababa is 3.3 million while the UN-Habitat maintains that the population is close to 4 million (UN-Habitat, 2008, p. 7). Regardless of the various estimates, with a population of about 12 times the second largest city (Dire Dawa), Addis Ababa remains Ethiopia’s primate city par excellence (Fig. 10). The population growth of Addis Ababa as well as the many urban areas in Ethiopia is largely fueled by in-migration, primarily from rural areas. The social and political upheaval following the 1974 revolution, the change in government in 1991 and the prolonged drought that occurred repeatedly since 1974 forced many families to move to the urban areas, and Addis Ababa was a major destination. However, although Addis Ababa’s population continues to grow, we are seeing a slowing down of the rate of growth of population, particularly in the last two decades. For more on general trends, see Appendix A. Two factors may explain this trend. First, the federal system that has decentralized power and resources to the regional governments has encouraged the growth of regional towns. Cities such as Dire Dawa, Bahir Dar, Mekele and Hawassa, have experienced a phenomenal growth in the last two decades.4 Second, Addis Ababa’s limited capacity to expand its infrastructure and provide services such as housing, water, transportation, as well as the shortage of employment opportunities seems to have slowed down the rate of movement of migrants into Addis Ababa. According to the 1984 Census, over 51.5% of the residents of Addis Ababa were migrants; this number declined to 46.7% in the 1994 Census, slightly picking up to 47.6% in 2007 Census.5 However, in absolute terms, the number of migrants continues to increase significantly. Over 328,000 people migrated between the second and the third census (1994– 2007); the corresponding figure for the previous decade (1984– 1994) was 242,000.6 Land and housing Until about 1974, land in Ethiopia was owned and controlled under two major land holding systems – the rist and gebbar system.7 Under the rist system, found in many of the northern provinces, individuals had the right to a piece of property as long as they can trace their decent in a community. Those that cannot trace use land as tenants. Under the gebbar system, which existed in many of the southern provinces, land was individually owned with tenancy as a major land holding practice. In 1962, as much as 58% of the land in Addis Ababa was supposedly owned by only 1,768 individuals, leading to 55% of the housing units being rental (Abate, 2001; Kebbede & Jacob, 1985).8 4 Some of the urban areas in Ethiopia have grown at a much higher rate than the growth rate of Addis Ababa. For instance, between 1984 (1st Census) and 2007 (3rd Census), the growth rate of some of the major towns was as follows. Hawasa – 335%, Mekele – 196%, Bahir Dar – 184%, Gondar – 156%, Dire Dawa – 138%. The corresponding growth rate for Addis Ababa was 94%. 5 See CSA, 1999, p. 161 and CSA 2007a, p. 125. Appendix A presents a general overview of trends since the 1960s. 6 5. See CSA, Census of 1984, 1994 and 2007. 7 This classification shows the main categories. There are several variations of ownership type under each category. 8 Land ownership figures in Ethiopia are quiet unreliable and sometimes misleading, and readers have to exercise caution in using land ownership data. For instance, Kebbede and Jacob (1985) maintain that prior to 1974, as much as 70% of the land in Ethiopia was owned by one percent of the population. This figure is questionable given that the northern half of the country had the rist system where land was communally owned.

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Fig. 9. Addis Ababa – Administrative structure. Source:a. CSA (2011b), Ethiopia’s Facilities and Services Atlas, Vol. 10. b. Daniel (2010).

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Table 1 Housing tenure in Addis Ababa. Source: Census of Population and Housing – 1984 (p. 323); 1994 (p. 253) and 2007 (p. 161) Item

a

Percent 1984

1994

2007

Owner occupied

33.60

34.40

32.60

Rental units Kebele rental Private rental Other rental (AARH)a

54.10 – 6.70

37.92 16.35 3.08

23.60 35.40 2.40

Rent free and other units Total (%) Total housing units (#)

6.20 100.0 259,555

8.24 100.0 347,742

5.90 100.0 628,986

AARH – Agency for the administration of rental housing.

Fig. 10. Addis Ababa’s population growth, 1961–2010. Source: CSA population census and estimates.

During this period, as the government failed to develop an effective housing policy that can address the shortage of housing, informal (unauthorized) housing including ‘yechereka bet’ (moon house – often built at night with moon light to evade government detection) proliferated. On the eve of the revolution in 1974, it is believed that as much as three-fourths of the housing units in Addis Ababa had no municipal permits (UN-Habitat, 2007, p. 8). Yet, although the houses had no permit and were very small and sub-standard, it is believed that there was no pressing housing shortage when the revolution broke out in 1974 (UNHabitat, 2007, p. 8). The 1974 Revolution and subsequent nationalization of urban and rural land by the military government transformed the land and housing situation in Ethiopia. Proclamation No. 47/1975 nationalized all urban land and extra houses (for a list of legislations, see FDRE). Property owners were allowed to retain one house of their choice for residence or any other use and all extra houses were put under the administration of kebeles (the neighborhood administrative units) or the Agency for the Administration of Rental Houses (AARH). A major consequence of the nationalization of urban land and extra houses was the creation of a critical shortage of housing as the private sector was effectively excluded from participating in housing investment, and the government lacked the capacity and the resources to meet the rising need for housing. In 1986, the government enacted Proclamation No. 292/1986 that prevented large-scale private housing development, which further exacerbated the housing shortage problem. The Proclamation specified that ‘‘residential buildings could be produced only by state enterprises, municipal governments, housing cooperatives and individuals who build dwellings for their personal consumption.’’ (Mulugeta, 1995, p. 71) By mid-1980s, 60.80% of the housing stock in Addis Ababa was rental (see Table 1). Similarly, housing quality was poor and about 44.4% of the housing units were overcrowded.9 In 1991, the EPRDF that took control of the government, initially adopted the land and housing policies of the previous government. It also instituted major reforms including the formation of a federal system that decentralized power to local governments. Addis Ababa was given self-governing authority (the only other city that was given self-governing authority was Dire Dawa). More importantly, Addis Ababa was given a new charter that made it directly accountable to the federal government and the residents of Addis Ababa (Proclamation 87/1997). The private sector was encouraged 9 According to the UN, housing units with one or more rooms occupied on the average by 2.5 or more persons per room could be classified as overcrowded. See UN (1994), Methods of Estimating Housing Needs, Series F, N-12, pp. 47–52. For information on overcrowding, see CSA 1987, p. 319.

to participate in housing development on land provided by the government. However, despite the efforts of the government, housing supply was sluggish as the private sector remained cautious. Government owned rental housing run by kebeles remained the dominant source of low-income housing. Meanwhile, the demand for affordable housing continued to rise. In 2002, the EPRDF government enacted Proclamation No.272/ 2002, which introduced the land lease system. The government also defined on how individuals can acquire a piece of land – through auction, lottery and the award system. The 1994 Constitution subsumes that every Ethiopian has the right to own private property, but the provision for private ownership of land is not specifically stated. On the contrary, Article 40, sub-section 3 of the 1994 Constitution states that, ‘‘land is exclusively vested in the state and the peoples of Ethiopia.’’ It further stipulates that ‘‘land is a common property of the Nations, Nationalities and Peoples of Ethiopia and shall not be subject to sale or to other means of transfer.’’ Furthermore, according to Proclamation 272/2002, while the leaseholder of an urban land is free to dispose-off the property (interest) by sale or other means of exchange, the lessee is prohibited from obligating the land by entering into a contract that binds the land. Also, under Proclamation 455/2005, the government retains the right to take land for public use with payment of compensation. The latest proclamation is Proclamation No.721/2011, which created further complications by requiring all property to be consolidated under the lease system, that is, the use right of land should be defined under a contract for a specified period. The duration under the lease system is 99 years for residential housing, 70 years for industry, 60 years for commerce and 15 years for urban agriculture. Article 5, sub-section 1 states that ‘‘no person may acquire urban land other than (in accordance with) the lease-hold system.’’ This stipulation basically eliminates the transfer of land by inheritance or by direct purchase of land from another owner unless it complies with the terms of the lease system.10 The lease system has become a major income generator for the Municipality of Addis Ababa. The revenue is used for construction of infrastructure, development of land and subsidizing housing construction for the poor. Conversely, investors are complaining that the lease price is becoming too high, new land available for leasing is lacking infrastructure, and the city does not hold its

10 Although the government maintains that the law does not prohibit someone from passing their land to their children through inheritance and consolidation into the lease system would not occur until the administrative guidelines are developed, the public is very skeptical of the explanations given by the government. The public believes that the government is eventually going to take private land and give it to others through a lease system.

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commitment on land transacted through the lease system (for example, delays in providing basic infrastructure).11 Key players in the housing sector and tenure The dominant player in the housing sector today is the municipal government through its sub-districts and woredas. The municipality of Addis Ababa is directly involved in the supply of land through the auction system and the construction of housing, including building of condominiums to alleviate the housing shortage. Conversely, the role of the private sector in construction and overall real estate development to respond to the rising housing demand for affordable housing is limited; the few private developers tend to focus on the construction of housing for the high-income group where the margins of profit are much higher. Another group that historically has played a major role in expanding home ownership is the housing cooperatives. In the late 1970s, the military government began to encourage individuals to form cooperatives and start building homes. To legitimize the process, in 1978 the government enacted Proclamation No. 138/1978 that allowed citizens to organize into small groups and register as cooperatives to receive plots for the construction of homes. Many individuals took advantage of this program, and according to some estimates, between 1975 and 1992, cooperative housing programs produced 40,539 units (Tesfaye, 2007, p. 31). Perhaps the largest contributor to the supply of housing in Addis Ababa is the informal or unplanned housing sector. This group accounted for 34.1% of the housing supply between 1996 and 2002. Cooperatives accounted for 28.2% and individual (planned) housing for 25.3% during the same period (Haregewoin, M., 2007, p. 5). In terms of ownership, private housing accounted for 32.6% of the housing stock in 2007. Owner occupied housing declined from 34.4% in 1984 (2nd Census) to 32.6% in 2007 (3rd Census) as shown in Table 1. The sector that has experienced the largest growth is the private rental – this sector has more than doubled in the last two decades. Housing need estimates by the government in 1998 indicated that as many as 300,000 housing units are required to meet the deficit in Addis Ababa (Haregewoin M., 2007, p. 32). This estimate is significantly lower than this author’s estimate based on the conventional housing accounting model. My estimate shows that Addis Ababa would need between 406,000 and 530,000 units to meet the current housing deficit.12 This target can be met only if the government is successful in unleashing the great potential of the private sector. Unfortunately, the private sector will continue to play a limited role in participating in the housing sector until the government clarifies the currently confusing land ownership system – either by changing land from a lease to a free-hold system or by granting unlimited usufructs right including the right to pass to children and the right to mortgage land freely. A critical area in assessing housing shortage is determining the level of effective demand for housing. As opposed to housing need, effective demand for housing refers to the ability and willingness 11 For more on urban land policy and its problems, see Yirsaw (2010). The lease system is becoming one of the most irrational land acquisition systems in Addis Ababa. Because of bidding, prices on some lots in town are increasing to a level that seems to make little economic sense. For instance, a recent report by Addis Fortune indicates that an auction for some pieces of property in the Bole area, with a starting price of 191 Birr/sq. mts. fetched a bidding price of over 10,000 Birr/sq. mts. At this rate, one would pay a price of 3.5 million Birr for a 350 sq. mt. of residential property. Such a price range virtually eliminates a majority of the residents in Addis Ababa for access to land. See ‘‘Residents Complain of Residential Home land lease price.’’ Reporter, May 8, 2013 (in Amharic). 12 The estimates are based on a conventional housing accounting method assuming a population of 3 million, average household size of 4.1 persons per household and a 30% and 50% respectively ‘fair to good housing condition’. ORAAMP’s estimate of housing need for 2010 Plan was 446,000 (ORAAMP, 2000).

to pay for housing. Based on effective demand, a majority of the households in Ethiopia do not have the income to afford a ‘decent’ home. According to the 2004/05 Household Income and Expenditure Survey, the average annual household income of the top quintile (top 20%) in Addis Ababa was $22,602 Birr (CSA, 2007b). If we assume that this group could carry a cost burden of 30% of its income for housing (6,781 birr per year) and also assume that it could make a down payment of 20% of the cost of housing (40,095 birr), it would take more than 24 years to pay back the mortgage loan on the house.13 Urban upgrading, condominiums and their unintended consequences Beginning in 2003 the Addis Ababa Municipality put urban upgrading/urban renewal as its top development agenda. The city endorsed urban upgrading as key to addressing urban poverty and improving the image of Addis Ababa. It also believed that the program would address problems of slum areas, covering a large part of the central city, and shortage of housing and infrastructure services. According to the Ministry of Urban Development and Construction (MoUDC), about 70% of Addis Ababa will need urban upgrading (MWUD, 2008, p. 2). As part of the upgrading program, Addis Ababa initiated two major action plans to be implemented sequentially, and sometimes simultaneously. The first action plan focused on redevelopment of land in high density areas with an objective of utilizing urban land and services more efficiently and cost-effectively. This means that most of the slums and structurally deteriorated homes in the central part of the city had to be cleared to give space to large commercial development and office space. Accordingly, the city started to relocate thousands of residents from the densely built neighborhoods in the central city to the periphery of Addis Ababa. This action of the municipality has dislocated the lives of many individuals. For more on the problems caused by relocation and the marginalization of the poor for access to land and housing, see (Mehretu & Gebre-Egziabher, 2012). For a mix of the old and the new residential, office and commercial developments and some areas awaiting upgrading, see Figs. 11–13. The second action plan focused on a housing program largely to accommodate those that were relocated from the central city and those displaced from areas designated for large-scale commercial and office development under the land lease system. It initiated a housing program known as the Integrated Housing Development Program (IHDP). The primary objective of the program was to improve the standard of living of citizens, particularly low income citizens, by providing employment opportunities and affordable housing. The target groups of this project were tenants of kebele homes and those displaced because of the land lease system. Based on experience gained in the early 1990s on successfully implemented projects in Sheraton and ECA-Kazanchiz areas, Addis Ababa decided on the condominium housing program as the most ‘‘effective’’ strategy to reduce cost and provide more housing. The Addis Ababa Integrated Housing Program is one of the most ambitious housing programs in Africa. It is massive, far reaching 13 A household is considered cost burdened if the household income needed to pay for housing exceeds 30% of the adjusted mean income. According to the Addis Ababa Municipality, the average price of a two bed room, 75 Sq. ft., and government built housing is 200,475 birr (US $1.00 = 18.5 Birr). An Individual would have to pay a down payment of 40,095 birr and an annual mortgage of 10,692 birr (45% of the household income) to qualify for a two-bed room housing purchase and payback the loan in 15 years. Such a housing payment schedule, given the inflation rate and the high cost of food and non-food items in Addis Ababa, would be onerous on the household. For prices of government built homes see ‘‘Announcement on construction of new low cost housing by the Municipality of Addis Ababa.’’ Reporter, Sunday, July 22, 2012 (in Amharic).

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Fig. 11. Unplanned housing in a major residential neighborhood.

Fig. 12. A mix of the old and the new developments in a major commercial area.

Fig. 13. An office complex with a modern design – Radio Fana Complex.

and bold. For instance, Jemo 1 Project is believed to have over 10,000 units. Between 2003 and 2010, the city built over 80,245 homes spread in 30 different sites, and currently preparations are underway to build another 95,000 units (Addis Fortune, April 7,

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2013a). In May 2013, the Addis Ababa Municipality announced a new housing registration program targeting various income groups. The program includes 10/90 (for lower income group), 20/80 (for the middle income groups and government employees), 40/60 (for high income groups) and 50/50 (for cooperatives). The 10/90 and 20/80 programs will receive government subsidies while the other two will not (Reporter May 19, 2013). The condominium projects are giant complexes, most of which are located in the periphery, away from the central city. Some of the complexes are so large, that one would have to use a Bajaj or taxi to move from one part of the complex to the other (see Fig. 14). Residents, who are relocated from the central city or those that were displaced due to the lease system, can choose a studio or 1 or 2 or 3 – bed rooms depending on their ability to pay. The actual allocation of a specific unit is done by a lottery system. Families are expected to pay between 10 and 20% of the cost (depending on income) as down payment, and the balance is to be paid in the next 20 years. Table 2 illustrates the cost and payment structurre of a condominium program announced by the Housing Development Office in 2010. The condominium housing program, despite its success in building a large number of homes in a short period of time, is riddled with numerous problems that are likely to chock its future growth unless the city takes appropriate measures. First, residents complain of problems related to shoddy construction, cracks (in walls as well as foundations), stairs with uneven rise in steps and work left unfinished. Homes are often transferred to prospective owners with only 80–90% of the work completed, with home owners to do the finishing work. The density and layout of the buildings is such that one is quickly reminded of Projects in the West on entering some of these premises. Second, although residents are required to hold on homes for a minimum of five years, some are already selling their units at an exorbitant price [through all kinds of contracts consummated outside of the law such as borrowing money from individuals for almost twice the price unofficially collateralizing the house). Third, some owners rent the homes at a hefty rate (taking advantage of the housing shortage problem), and as some critics put it, the Addis Ababa Municipality is contributing to the creation of a class of ‘rent seekers’ (kiray sebsabi), families who virtually had no assets prior to getting these condos but have now become land lords. The current rate shows that studios are renting for about 2,500 Birr/month and 1 to 3-berdrooms from 3000 to 7000 Birr/ month. According to Addis Fortune, at the Rwanda Condominium Site, 75% of the owners have rented out their units and moved to cheaper places in the outskirts (Addis Fortune, April 21, 2013b). These property owners move to other sites, usually in the periphery, and start competing for rental units, defeating the initial purpose of the housing program, which was to create a cadre of home owners, not land lords.14 Fourth, there are other social and economic problems related to residents being dislocated from their jobs, losing community ties (such as Edir and Equb), children having to relocate to a different school, rising transportation cost, and lack of

14 The situation has created a major debate among some residents. There are some who argue that despite its limitations, the condominium program should be commended for helping the poor to own property. Critics of the program maintain that the condominium program is ‘‘unfair’’ in that it is helping some at the expense of many because the price of the homes do not reflect the true value of the homes. Their argument is that condominium homes are highly subsidized in that owners are given free land; construction companies working on condominiums are given priority in receiving construction materials directly from producers or importers often at a lower rate than the market price while the rest of the community pays a premium price for construction materials that are often scarce in the market. Hence, condo owners are enjoying the benefits created by the program while the rest of the community has to fend off for itself to find shelter. Other criticisms are related to the high rent they charge or the windfall profit they receive when they sell their homes.

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Fig. 14. Condominium Characteristics – (a) Bajaj is a favored transport means; (b) a site ready to be occupied by residents; (c) a community service quadrant – notice the two storied building to the left used as a community facility; (d) a leaking roof with exposed wires and ducts in disrepair.

Table 2 Price range of condominium homes. Source: Addis Ababa, office of housing development brochure, 2010 (in Amharic). Home type

Area in Sq. mts.

Down payment (birr)

Total price of homes (birr)

Studio One-bed room Two-bed room Three-bed room

30.58 42.57 66.68 78.04

8,868 15,879 30,406 37,225

44,341 79,393 152,030 186,125

Note: These prices vary based on location and year when project was implemented. U.S. $1.00 = 18.5 birr.

safety and security associated with large-scale housing development projects.15

Employment and economic characteristics The 2010 National Employment Survey indicates that 60.8% of the population in Addis Ababa is economically active and unemployment runs around 27% (CSA, 2011a). Compared to the 1984 Census, the unemployment rate in 2010 has almost doubled, although it is about 8.0% and 4.3% lower than the 1994 and 2005 figures respectively (see Table 3). The general trend shows that unemployment rate in Addis Ababa is on the decline, particularly since 2005. This is partly due to the newly instituted innovative Micro and Small Enterprises 15 Although there are some preliminary works on the effect of the relocation programs on residents, a comprehensive assessment of the social and economic impact of the condominium program is yet to come.

Table 3 Economic characteristics of Addis Ababa, 1984–2010. Sources: 1984 and 1994 – Census of population and houssing 1984, 1994, 2005 and 2010 – CSA, Report on 2005 National Labor Force survey and National Employment Survey of 2010 (Analytical Report). Economic characteristics

1984

1994

2005

2010

Economically active population (No.) Employed (%) Unemployed (%)

470,308

903,476

1,161,525

1,597,712

86.8 13.2

65.3 34.7

64.5 31.2

73.1 26.9

(MSE) development programs organized at regional levels. In 2005 the Addis Ababa Municipality established the Bureau of MSEs with a mandate to create employment opportunities for the unemployed youth and women; prior to that MSE programs were administered by the federal government. The program focuses on a few sectors identified as strategic and growth oriented and targets them for maximum support. Some of these sectors include manufacturing (textile, leather, garment, wood work, and handicrafts), construction including the widely publicized cobblestone laying program, urban agriculture, trade and service sectors (waste collection, recycling). Under this program unemployed workers are organized into small groups of 10 – 15 members and they receive different kinds of services such as technical support, product display space, market linkage, and access to technology. Also, MSEs have tax-exemption privileges for the first three years. According to the Addis Ababa MSE Bureau, between 2003 and 2010, more than 22,000 MSEs have received business licenses and over 686,000 unemployed youth and women have become beneficiaries of this program. In terms of funding, several microenterprise

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Fig. 15. Occupational category of Addis Ababa (in %), 2007. Fig. 16. Traffic on a major square. http://www.rediff.com.

financing institutions have given out over 1.4 billion Birr as business loan with 40% of the loan going to women enterprises (Dubale, 2011). The three major sources of employment in Addis Ababa are the services, sales and production and operation sectors. These three sectors account for about 75% of the employment in Addis Ababa (Fig. 15). Some of these sectors, for instance, service workers, tend to be in low-wage employment activities. Most workers in the service sector could be categorized as the ‘‘working poor’’ because of their low wages. Although these workers have a job, their wages are so low that they hardly have enough income to make ends meet. This kind of employment characteristics accounts for the high rate of poverty in the city. Infrastructure, environment and quality of life Transportation Addis Ababa does not have a rail network that transports a large volume of traffic from the central part of the city to the suburbs or the vise versa. Consequently, most residents use private automobile or public transportation to move from one part of the city to another. Providing adequate transportation is one of the major challenges of the municipality of Addis Ababa. The city has developed a series of development plans with the objective of expanding the capacity of the city’s road network, but many of the development plans have been delayed because of cost overrun and construction delays. In 2000 the City of Addis Ababa completed the first 33 kms. ring road; the idea of developing a ring road connecting Addis Ababa with satellite towns was first entertained in the 1956 plan of Sir Patrick Abercombie. The ring road has helped in redirecting heavy traffic from the suburbs to move around the periphery rather than crossing the central part of the city. However, the central parts of the city as well as the major intersections radiating from the center still face major problems. On some of the major highways, traffic backs up for hours, particularly during rush hours. There are several explanations why transportation in Addis Ababa has remained a major problem. For more on some of these problems, see Haregewoin Y., 2010. First, despite the major effort by the municipality to improve the road network, Addis Ababa is one of the major cities of its size that has limited mileage of arterial road (primary road) to handle the large volume of traffic. In 2001, Addis Ababa had 2,841 km of major road, by 2010 that number had increased to 3,192 kms. but over 50% of this network is of stone pavement and gravel serving mainly neighborhoods and surrounding areas. Arterial or primary roads (roads that can handle as much as 20,000 vehicles a day) and sub-arterial roads account for only about 30.7% of the

Fig. 17. Flooding on one of the major highways of Addis Ababa.

road (Haregewoin Y., 2010, p. 35). This limited capacity creates a major constraint on the road network to handle a large volume of traffic. A related problem is the lack of good drainage system. It is estimated that only about 39% of the roads in Addis Ababa have proper drainage leaving much of the road network clogged during the rainy season (see Figs. 16 and 17). Work on developing a light-rail system has started. Two major lines that intersect east to west (Ayat to Tor Hayloch – 17.5 km.) and north to south (Menelik Square to Kality – 34.0 km) will soon come into operation. The two systems will have a combined capacity of 60,000 people/h; and the first section of the two lines is anticipated to start operation as early as 2015. Second, the increase in the number of vehicles far exceeds the capacity of the road network to handle the traffic. In 2010, Addis Ababa had about 185,000 vehicles, and this number is projected to increase to 486,000 vehicles by 2020. About 38,000 vehicles are being added every year (Haregewoin Y., 2010). More importantly, about 82% of these vehicles are private automobiles with the remaining 12% accounting for taxi cabs, mini and large buses and trucks. The high percentage of private automobile is one of the major factors contributing to the large volume of traffic in the city. Third, many of the vehicles are very old and mechanically poorly maintained. It is estimated that about 46% of the vehicles in Addis Ababa are between 21 and 30 years old and mechanically unfit to be on the road, another 22% are between 31 and 40 years

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old and 9% are over 41 years old. Only 23% of the vehicles are less than 10 years old (Haregewoin Y., 2010, p. 32). Fourth, public transportation is largely provided by Anbesa City Bus Service and a large group of taxis and minivans (weyiyits) run privately. A second private bus system known as Haeger Bus system supplements the service provided by Anbess City Bus. Both the bus and the taxi service systems have failed to provide adequate public transportation service, particularly in the morning and evening hours when the demand for transportation services is very high. Both systems often carry passengers in excess of their capacity (for instance, many of the Anbesa buses have a nominal capacity of 50 to 75 passengers, but they often may carry as many as one and half or double that number during rush hours). Also, the number of buses available to serve commuters compared to the demand for services is very low. A related problem impacting public transportation users is the unauthorized price increase that taxi drivers charge their customers (prices that taxis can charge are fixed by sector based on kilometers travelled; however taxi drivers may artificially break their routes to make passengers pay more). Fifth, Addis Ababa lacks an integrated land use system that synchronizes the traffic flow with the spatial distribution of activities. Because of lack of zoning provisions, different land uses are haphazardly scattered all over the city. There is often a mix of commercial, institutional and residential land uses existing side by side in one neighborhood (Fig. 18). Conversely, some land use types are limited to one part of the city creating a funneling of traffic to that area. For instance, the two main city markets are Mercato in the western part of the city and Shiro Meda in the north (although there are other smaller shopping areas throughout the

city), and individuals who want to take advantage of the wide choice of goods available would have to travel to either Mercato or Shiro Meda regardless of where they live. This pattern of land use does not lend itself to an optimal use of the transportation network vis-à-vis the distribution of activities. The Municipality of Addis Ababa is making a concerted effort to alleviate the transportation problems of the city, although it is moving at a very slow pace. To be effective, the municipality needs to adopt a series of measures including expanding the road network, enhancing the capacity of existing arterial and sub-arterial roads, enforcing a strict regulation on maintenance of old vehicles, improving the public transportation system, encouraging private and public organizations to institute a flexible working schedule, introducing an effective land use management system, and adopting a strict traffic regulation that monitors the carrying capacity of public transportation system and the prices that they charge, regulating parking systems, quickly removing disabled vehicles and eliminating other types of road hazards. Implementing these measures requires a sustained effort on the part of the municipality of Addis Ababa. Water supply and waste disposal The first public water supply system for Addis Ababa was established 15 years after the founding of the city (Kebbede & Jacob, 2004). Despite this early start in developing a water supply system, Addis Ababa always suffered from shortage of available potable water supply in adequate quantity and quality. For many decades, the demand for clean water exceeded the supply. The Addis Ababa water system draws its water from several sources – from Akaki

Fig. 18. Land use Plan of Addis Ababa, 2003. Source: ORAAMP.

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well fields (14%), scattered wells and protected springs (21%), Gefersa Dam (10%) and from Dire and Legadadi Dams (55%). The total water capacity of the system is 300,000 m3/day; however, this capacity is below that needed for a city of over 3 million people. Estimates indicate that gross water supply (excluding loss through leakage) is 50 liters per capita per day (pcd); most comparable cities in Africa are provided with at least 100 pcd (Ndaruzaniye 2011, p.7). There are plans to construct two more reservoirs, one at Sibilu in Sululta and the other at Gerbi in Chancho area. The official statistics from the CSA shows that as many as 97.7% of the households receive water from a piped water supply system, but the actual system serviced is close to 70% (UN Habitat 2007, p. 38). According to the 2011 Welfare Monitoring survey (CSA, 2012a,b), about 60% of the households receive water from public taps (bonos). One of the major problems affecting the water supply system is the condition of the aging distribution infrastructure. It is estimated that about 30–40% of the water supply does not reach consumers because of leaking pipes and an aging distribution system (Daniel et al., 2010, p. 399; Teshome et al., 2012). Another problem is the periodic disruption of water supply by the municipality; a 2002 urban inequities survey indicated that about 28.6% of the households reported of frequent water supply disruption by the municipality [cited in Bihon, 2007, p. 5). The Addis Ababa Water and Sewer Authority (AAWSA), an autonomous public agency created in 1971, is responsible for water supply and waste disposal services. AAWSA has been working to expand the capacity of the city water system by developing new plans and programs. The projected demand for public water for Addis Ababa for 2020 is over 500,000 m3/day. AAWSA has developed a series of water plans including impounding surface water from surrounding rivers located 40– 50 km from Addis Ababa, improving the capacity of existing dams, replacing old distribution systems to eliminate waste through leakage. However, implementation is constrained because of budget problems. Solid waste Building a system that can handle the waste generated by residents is a major challenge of many cities in the developing world. According to the Municipality of Addis Ababa, in 2010 Addis Ababa generated about 550 tons of waste per day of which 80% is collected by vehicles or other types of containers located in different parts of the city. The remaining 20% is disposed off through informal means such as disposing in streams, drainage channels, burning locally or dumping in open sites (Addis Ababa City Administration, 2010). The biggest factor for the informal dumping of waste is the lack of solid waste services (containers) particularly in crowed neighborhoods where the quantity of waste is high. The open top metallic containers scattered in different pats of the city, are several miles apart which discourages residents from carrying waste to the sites. In some locations, there is only one container for a neighborhood that may require as many as three to handle the waste generated. As a result, containers often overflow and waste is scattered along roads and in open areas. The municipality waste disposal site was at Reppi/Koshe, about 13 km away from the city center. This site served for more than 43 years and is now in the process of closing. A new site is secured near Sendafa, which is still under construction. Quality of life and sustainability Addis Ababa prides in being a safe city and one with the lowest cost of living index among African major cities. These are two important qualities of life that bode well for Addis Aba-

Table 4 Urban service coverage, 2007. Source: Population and housing survey, 2007. Service Category

Coverage

Gap

Housing Ownership – units owned Water – housing units with tap water (private and shared) Toilet – units with no toilet facilities Electricity – units with electricity for light Telephone – units with telephone

67.4 97.7 85.7 98.1 40.8

32.6 3.3 14.3 1.9 59.2

ba in its effort to attract foreign visitors and be recognized as a welcoming international city. The 2011 Mercer Cost of Living Survey ranked Addis Ababa as number 208 out of 214 cities in the world [Mercer Survey., 2011). This comparatively low cost of living may be an advantage for expatriates, but when it comes to local residents conditions are different: Addis Ababa is one of the poorest cities in Africa with limited capacity to meet the basic needs (food, shelter and sanitation) of its residents. Table 4 gives a general overview of the public service coverage based on the 2007 Census, but actual overages are believed to be much lower than the figures shown in Table 4. More importantly, the quality of service provided is extremely poor. For instance, a 2011 survey on power supply indicated that more than 41% of the households reported power failure/interruption more than three times a week (CSA, 2012a). In terms of living conditions, many of the local residents believe that life in Addis Ababa is difficult. A 2011 survey of residents showed that 17% of the households felt that living standards in Addis Ababa with respect to food are about the same over the five years prior to the survey while 55% felt that it was worse. Only 14% indicated that living conditions were getting better (CSA, 2012a,b, p. 382). The numbers that indicated ‘‘worse’’ ranged from 43% in Nefas Silk to 74% in Akaki Kality. Similarly, the Addis Ababa Consumer price Index jumped from 100.0 in 2000 to 207.1 in 2010/11; and the price for food item jumped from 100.0 in 2000 to 227.8 in 2010/11 (CSA, 2012b). As Addis Ababa continues to grow, more and more people are likely to move into the city, and with more people moving, there will be a strain on its infrastructure. Roadways, power lines, water systems, public transportation and communications will be under pressure to meet the increasing demand for services. The challenge for Addis Ababa is whether it would be able to satisfy the increasing demand for services in order to create a sustainable community. Conclusion Addis Ababa has undergone through major transformation particularly in the last decade. The demographic as well as infrastructure changes are unprecedented in its history. From a small town of less than half a million people in the early 1960s, it is now home to close to 4 million inhabitants. It is also the seat of major international organizations including AU and UN-ECA. As the city aspires to be a major international/diplomatic capital decision makers have to realize that the quality of services the city provides will be held to higher standards. More importantly, the city must provide opportunities to millions that are without jobs, address the problem of poor infrastructure services, specifically water, electricity, housing, transportation and communication that the residents are enduring daily. There are vast areas occupied by informal settlements beset by poor infrastructure and lack of social and economic opportunities Despite the progress it has made, Addis Ababa still faces many major challenges that test the resilience of the local

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government. Efforts are underway to deal with some of the challenges by building infrastructure, providing housing and attracting investment, although with mixed results. It is obvious that much remains to be done in these and other areas. More importantly, the efforts made by the local government must incorporate some of the following elements of strategic planning. First, the decision makers must build a partnership between the private and public sectors. Most of the initiatives taken by the city in the last decades had very little participation of the private sector. The task of improving the living standard of the residents is so daunting that the public sector alone cannot address the problem, no matter how hard it tries. In this connection, the government has to eliminate the uncertainty of ownership of land-based assets. The state ownership of land and the ever changing laws and regulations regarding usufruct rights have become problematic for land-based development in Addis Ababa. Second, the planning efforts of the city must incorporate the major elements of sustainable development. These elements include the principles of smart growth (optimizing the use of available infrastructure and other resources), inclusivity (ensuring that those that are at the lower economic ladder are part of the decision making process), equity (ensuring that the benefits of development are shared equitably by everyone), and balance (maintaining balance among the economic, environmental and social objectives of the community). Third, the decision makers must embrace elements of good governance (accountability, predictability, transparence and participation). In this vein, the governance structure must change the conventional approach of making top-down decisions; instead, the structure should be open to a bottom-up governance system. Fourth, Addis Ababa is in the process of developing a new city development plan (structure plan). In contrast to the previous plans, the new plan has a regional focus, with the geographic coverage extending over 100 kms., all the way to Adama (Nazreth). The plan is expected to be completed by 2014. The plan incorporates the leading land use concepts and future developments of the city. This process would transition Addis Ababa from a major city into a metropolitan area that transcends several jurisdictional boundaries (part of the area would be in the Oromo administrative region). Development plans that transcend jurisdictional boundaries often run into problems of definition of power and responsibility, governance, service provision and resource sharing. The process of negotiating these delicate regional issues and establishing a unit that can receive sufficient support and cooperation from established institutions/governments is often a major challenge. Whether Addis Ababa will succeed in developing a sustainable community and in becoming a major international center will depend on how much the decision makers are willing to incorporate some of the strategic planning elements outlined above. Acknowledgements I want to thank Professor Assefa Mehretu of Michigan State University for reviewing an earlier draft of this paper and the reviewers for their helpful suggestions and comments. My special thanks to the U.S. Fulbright Program for giving me the opportunity to teach and conduct research in Addis Ababa. I was able to update the material for this article while I was in Addis Ababa as 2012– 2013 Fulbright Scholar. Appendix A

Fig. 19. Addis Ababa as a ratio of total urban population of Ethiopia Computation by author.

Table 5 Regression results – Ethiopian urban system, 1984–2010. Y Year

Intercept

1984 1994 2007 2010

6.292 13.929 16.029 16.505

B Change

Slope

Change

7.637 2.100 0.476

0.283 1.031 1.173 1.198

0.748 0.142 0.025

R2 = .833; df = 400; N = 408.

on the other, the increasing homogeneity of urban growth in Ethiopia. As illustrated in Fig. 19, Addis Ababa in 1978 accounted for about 40% of the urban population in Ethiopia. From then on this percentage started to show a downward trend to where it has remained around 21–23% between 2007 and 2010. This trend of slowing down of the dominance of Addis Ababa as a primate city and the corresponding homogeneity of urban growth in Ethiopia can be empirically investigated by examining the dynamics of urban growth in Ethiopia based on the rank-size city model. The rank-size model can be expressed as:

PqR ¼ P1 =R

ð1Þ

where R = the rank of the city, PR = the population of the city rank R, P1 = the population of the largest city or first-ranking city, and q = a constant. After transforming into logarithms, the relationship becomes,

Log R ¼ Log P1  q Long PR

ð2Þ

Graphically, plotting rank against size on double logarithmic paper gives a straight line with a slope of q. Since the objective is to determine the dynamics of urban growth over time, specifically to examine if the Ethiopian urban system has experienced a hierarchical growth pattern that has accelerated the growth of small and medium-size cities while it has slowed the dominance of the primate city Addis Ababa, we can look at growth trends of the Ethiopian urban system by using an augmented regression model. The model estimates the change in the parameters of the relationship between rank and size of cities over time. A full model that can capture the growth trend over the period 1984 to 2010 can be expressed as follows:

Y i ¼ Bo þ B1 D1 þ B2 D2 þ B3 D3 þ B4 X þ B5 D1 X þ B6 D2 X Addis Ababa’s demographic trend shows, on one hand the slowing down of the dominance of Addis Ababa as a primate city, and

þ B7 D3 X

ð3Þ

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M. Wubneh / Cities 35 (2013) 255–269

where Yi is the log of rank of city i; Xi is log of population of rank y; Bi is estimated parameters; D1 is 1, if observation is for 2010; 0, otherwise; D2 is 1, if observation is for 2007; 0, otherwise; D3 is 1, if observation is for 1994; 0, otherwise. Using the full model (Eq. (3)), the parameters are estimated by the method of ordinary least squares (OLS), The regression results are16

Dubale, Konjit. (2011). Women in the development of micro and small enterprises to ensure sustainable development and food security. Addis Ababa City Administration MSE Bureau. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE), Federal Negarit Gazeta. Proc. 47/ 1974 – Government Ownership of Land and Extra Houses. Proc. 292/1986 Construction and Use of Urban Houses. Proc. 138/1978 - Cooperative Societies Proclamation. Proc. 87/1997 – Addis Ababa City Government Charter. Proc. 272/ 2002 – Re-Enactment of Urban Lands Lease Holding Proclamation. Proc. 361/ 2003 – Addis Ababa’s Revised Charter Proclamation. Proc. 455/2005 –

Y 0 ¼ 6:292 þ 10:213D1 þ 9:737D2 þ 7:637D3  0:283X  0:915D5  0:890D6  0:748D7 ð16:823Þ

ð16:379Þ

ð15:114Þ

ð8:383Þ

R2 = .833; adjusted R2 = .830; df = 7, 400. The estimated regression equation for the period 1984 to 2010 shows significant changes both for the intercept and the slope.17 The changes both in the intercept and the slope for the different periods are shown in Table 5, and the values reflect the growing homogeneity in the growth of the urban system over time. This trend suggests that the city ranks by size was much more pronounced in the past than they are today. The implication is that the extensive revolution in communication and transportation and the deliberate government emphasis on the development of federal regional capitals has slackened polarization in the urban system.18

References Abate, M. (2001). Housing the Poor in Addis Ababa: Trends and opportunities, final report, no. 2961 for workshop on urban management: And finance. In 79th ICHUD, HIS, Rotterdam: The Netherlands. Addis Ababa City Administration. (2010). Overview of the Addis Ababa City solid waste management system. Addis Ababa. . Addis Fortune. (2013a). City to transfer 10,000 condominium houses, 07.04.13. Addis Fortune. (2013b). Supply gaps fuel rental increases, 07.21.13. Bihon Azeb Kelemwork (2007). Housing for the poor in Addis Ababa. . Central Statistical Agency. (1987). Census of population and housing, 1984. Analytical Report. Central Statistical Agency. (1999). Census of population and housing, 1994. Analytical Report. Central Statistical Agency. (2005). Report on 2005 national labor force survey. Central Statistical Agency. (2007a). Census of population and housing, 2007. Central Statistical Agency. (2007b). 2004/05 Household income, consumption and expenditure survey (Vol. 2).Statistical Bulletin No. 304, Addis Ababa. Central Statistical Agency. (2011a). National employment survey of 2010. Analytical Report, Addis Ababa. Central Statistical Agency. (2011b). Ethiopia’s facilities and services atlas (Vol. 10). Addis Ababa. Central Statistical Agency. (2012a). Welfare monitoring survey 2011. Statistical Report (Vol. II). Addis Ababa. Central Statistical Agency. (2012b). Country and regional level consumer price indices. Addis Ababa. Conosociazione Turistica Italiana (CTI). ed. 1938. Guida dell’Africa Orientale Italiano, Milan. Daniel, Dubale et al. (2010). Urban environmental challenges in developing cities: The case of Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa. World academy of science. Engineering and Technology, 66, 397–402. De Castro, Lincoln. (1909). Note ethiopiche. Roma (Bollettino della Societa Geografica Italiana), Annex ill. 16 The t-values used for testing the significance of differences are below each coefficient. All coefficients are significant at .001 level. 17 The estimated equation was based on the size and rank of cities for the following years: 1984 – 89 cities, 1994 – 103 cities, 2007 – 108 cities and 2010 – 108 cities. 18 To determine whether the changes are significant or not, one can set the hypothesis of Bi = Bj against the hypothesis of Bi – Bj and test the set of coefficients by using the t-test. The tests indicate that the changes both in the intercept and the slope are statistically significant. For more on the rank-size analysis of Ethiopian cities, see Wubneh (1980).

ð15:501Þ

ð15:199Þ

ð14:501Þ

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