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Age distribution, education and societal structure
Sock+&on.
Ph.
Sci. Vol. 7, pp. 599610
(1973). Pergamon Press. Printed in Great Britain
AGE DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION SOCIETAL STRUCTURE GEORGE C. THEODORIDIS
AND
and ERNST 0. ATTINGER
Division of Biomedical Engineering, School of Engineering and Applied Science and School of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22901 (Received 5 March 1973)
Age distribution, educational distribution and societal structure are interrelated parameters that, in the past, were adjusted to each other in an equilibrium that was only perturbed by rather small and slow changes. Built-in trial and error control mechanisms were evidently capable of containing these minor perturbations without excessive instabilities. Recently, major and fast changes have been occurring in the age distribution through the substantial extension of human life expectancy, and in the educational distribution through the wide availability of educational opportunities. The existing trial and error control mechanisms seem to be inadequate for such major perturbations, and new controls will have to be introduced in order to avoid serious instability and disruption. While the age distribution cannot becontrolled through morally acceptable means, ways must be found to control the educational distribution, and to match it to existing societal needs. INTRODUCTION of an average person’s life is devoted to his role as a part of a societal structure that consists of institutions such as the state, the church, as well as various other organizations that produce and distribute goods and services. The smooth operation of the societal system, as well as the personal satisfaction and fulfillment of its constituents depends to a substantial extent on the successful matching of individuals with appropriate positions within the societal structure. Two basic characteristics of a population are its distribution vs age and its distribution vs educational level; these characteristics should be adequately matched to the features of the societal structure so that the population should contain a number of individuals of a given age and educational level that is comparable to the number of positions within the societal structure that are appropriate to that age and educational level. The age distribution and the educational distribution in most societies are currently undergoing substantial and rapid changes toward age distributions with a higher precentage of mature people and toward educational distributions with a higher percentage of educated people. These rapid changes are continuously upsetting the matching of the available human resources to the existing needs within the societal structure. The process through which this matching is effected must be flexible enough in order to adapt smoothly to the changing conditions without excessive imbalances between resources and needs. In this article we shall examine some of the factors behind the current rapid changes in the age and educational distributions, and discuss the possibility of controlling some of these factors as a means toward a better matching of human resources to societal needs.
A MAJOR segment
599
600
GEORGEC.
THEODORIDIS
and ERNST0. A-ITINGER
The schematic diagram in Fig. 1 summarizes the main elements that enter into the process of matching human resources to the societal structure. The basic parameters that define the problem are on the one hand the characteristics of the human resources and on the other hand the spectrum of various positions that constitute the societal structure. The main characteristics of the human resources are broadly summarized by the age and educational distributions of the population; the pertinent feature of the societal structure is the distribution of the existing positions according to the capiibility, knowledge and experience that they require.
Mortality rates
_
Age distribution
\
Matching Human resources
retirement Age d~str~butm; flnonclal status.
process:
Educotionol and age requirements; policies
m
Societal structure
occepvxl values and standards
FIG. 1. Schematic diagram of the process of matching human resources to the societal structure.
To achieve a satisfactory solution to the matching problem requires that procedures and criteria must be devised through which each position within the societal structure is filled by an individual with adequate capabilities, education and experience. Also, the criteria will have to guarantee that each individual should have the opportunity to fill a position which makes reasonably full use of his potential. Solutions that have been used by various societies include some where an individual’s role and place in society is to a large degree determined by his birth (strict social classes and castes, or hereditary professional guilds), some where age seniority and educational titles are predominant criteria of advancement in the societal structure, and others where performance is given considerable weight, often overshadowing birth, seniority, education or experience. The placing of individuals into the societal structure is accomplished using a combinaton of laws, traditions, customs, or principles that determine the value and prestige attached to education, seniority or birth. Many of these principles are part of the value system, and are often accepted by an individual as part of his cultural heritage, without knowledge of the real function they serve in society. The result is a very slowly responding system which is not adapting at a rate corresponding to that of the occurring changes. In the past, changes in the age and educational distribution or in the societal structure occurred slov3 and covered periods of time spanning several generations. The matching of the age and educational distribution to the societal structure could adjust to such slow changes through a gradual trial and error process. Today changes are rapid and there is not sufficient time for adapting through trial and error. During the last few decades lower mortality rates have drastically changed the age distribution of many advanced societies, increasing substantially the proportion of mature
Age Distribution and Societal Structure
601
In most contemporary societies the mortality rate has been substantially reduced, and most deaths are caused by degenerative diseases that affect predominantly the older people. This change in the mortality rate has two distinct effects:
people.
(a) If the birth rate is not reduced to match the lower total mortality rate, explosive population growth will result. This effect is currently arousing much concern, and various measures are being considered as a way of limiting the birth rate. (b) The new distribution of mortality vs age leads to a drastic change in the age distribution of the population toward a higher ratio of mature to young people. This effect would not be eliminated by reducing the birth rate to the level of the new mortality rate. The opposite holds true, this effect being most pronounced in precisely such steady state populations. Concurrently with the changing age distribution, there are rapid changes in the educational distribution of contemporary populations towards a higher proportion of educated individuals. Higher numbers of people have become able to provide their children with educational opportunities for longer periods of time. The waste of human capital that was due to excessive premature deaths of parents and of children has been reduced and, in turn, this partly resulted in a larger educational investment and a higher level of education. The concurrent changes in the age and the educational distributions are altering the basic features of the human resources that are to fill the existing positions within the societal structure. The process of matching human resources to societal needs is thus perturbed to the extent where correction by slow, triai and error adjustment of existing laws, habits, and values is unlikely to bring about an equilibrium within a reasonable time. It will be necessary, therefore, to study and understand the processes involved, in order that the needed adjustments can be designed and engineered so that adequate and fast results can be obtained. AGE
DISTRIBUTION
Figure 2 illustrates some relationships between the demographic variables that determine the shape of an age distribution. Figures 2(b) and 2(d) show the stationary age distribution curves for two different distributions of the death rate (Figs. 2(a) and 2(c) respectively). In Fig. 2(a) deaths are distributed evenly over all ages. The distributed death rate is expressed in deaths/yr within a I-yr age interval, i.e. in deaths/y?. The birth rate is B births/yr and the maximum lifetime is L yr. The steady state condition is :
B=Ld
(1) and the resulting stationary age distribution P(x) decreases linearly with age x between x = 0 and x = L (Fig. 2b). The distribution function P(x) can be expressed in numbers of people or percentage of the total population within a I-yr age interval (people/yr or per cent/yr). In Fig. 2(c), all deaths are assumed to occur at the end of the maximum lifetime L. The concentrated death rate is D deaths&. The steady state condition is : D=B (2) and the stationary age distribution P(x) in constant (Fig. 2d). Figures 2(f), 2(g) and 2(h) illustrate time dependent age distributions for a population with birth rate B(t) that grows linearly with time t: B(t) = b t.
(3)
602
GEORGEC. THZODORIDIS and ERNST0. AI-TINGER
D = concentrated death rate
Age x
L
Age x
L
FIG. 2
(a,b). Stationary age distribution for distributed death rate. (c,d) Stationary age distribution for concentrated death rate. (e,f,g,h) Time dependent age distributions for growing birth rate and concentrated death rate.
Deaths are assumed to be concentrated at the end of the maximum lifetime L (Fig. 2e). The age distribution function P(Q), denoting the number of people of age x at a time t, is given by the equation : P(x,t) = B(t-x)
= (t--x)b.
(4)
Figures 2(f), 2(g) and 2(h) illustrate the shape of P(x,t) at time t < L, t = L and t > L. Note that the transient age distributions in the case of a growing birth rate and a concentrated death rate resemble the stationary age distribution in the case of a constant birth rate and a distributed death rate (Fig. 2b). Figure 3 displays some data on the death rates and the age distributions in the United Kingdom and in the United States. Figure 3(a) compares the distribution of deaths in the U.K. for the years 1871 and 1963. The distribution curve for 1871, with the exception of the age bracket of O-5 years, is rather evenly distributed with age, approximating the case of a distributed death rate in Fig. 2(a). The curve for 1963 shows a marked concentration of deaths around the age bracket of 60-90 years, approximating the case of a concentrated death rate of Fig. 2(c). Figure 3(b) compares the age distribution histograms for the U.K. in 1871 and 1963. The two distributions show the general features of the theoretical age distribution functions of Fig. 2. It should be noted that the distributions of Fig. 3(b) are not stationary age distributions since they do not refer to a steady state population. Figures 3(d) and 3(e) compare the actual age distributions of Fig. 3(b) with the corresponding stationary age distribution curves, derived under the assumption that the prevailing mortality rates vs age are preserved and the birth rate is adjusted accordingly to achieve steady state. The actual age distribution for 1963 is rather close to the stationary one (Fig. 3e), while the actual distribution for 1871
Age Distribution
603
and Societal Structure
us
UK
I
(d)
(e)
U.K. 1871
U.K. 1963
I
(f)
I
U.S. 1964
i’~~~~~~~ 0
10 2030405060706090
0 102030405060706090
Am
FIG. 3 (a). Death rate distributions
0
102030405060709090
Yr
in the United Kingdom. (b-f) Age distributions and the United States [l].
in the United Kingdom
deviates appreciably from the stationary distribution (Fig. 3d), indicating a rapidly growing population. Figure 3(c) compares the age distributions for the United States in 1870 and 1964. While the change is again quite pronounced, the distribution for 1964 is obviously still far from approaching the stationary distribution. Figure 3(f) compares the age distribution for the United States in 1964 with the corresponding stationary distribution, derived under the premises described above. We note a substantial excess of the actual young population above the stationary level, indicative of fast growth. The marked dip around the 30 yr age bracket reflects the severe drop in births during the depression decade of the 30’s. The alternating periods of very high and severely depressed birth rates, as they are reflected in the 1964 age distribution for the U.S., are an indication of a substantial oscillation around the level of equilibrium. In the U.K. the system seems to operate in a more stable mode, remaining closer to the equilibrium level. An interesting consideration is related to the fact that the transient age distribution of a growing population with a concentrated death rate (Figs. Zf, 2g and 2h) is sloped with age in a manner resembling the stationary age distribution of a steady population with a distributed death rate (Fig. 2b). This makes it possible that an abrupt change, such as the one that has been occurring in recent times, from a distributed to a concentrated death rate (Fig. 3a) may generate forces enhancing population growth as an indirect way of temporarily preserving a sloped age distribution and thus postponing the necessity to readjust the societal structure so as to match a flat age distribution.
604
GEORGEC. THEO~RIDISand ERNST0. AXTINGER EDUCATION
Of the different subsystems that are operating within a society, the educational system is probably, next to the economy, the most amenable to quantitative treatment and analysis. Data on its size, costs and output are relatively accessible for contemporary societies as well as for some societies in the past. Several studies have examined the relationship between education viewed as an investment and its returns in personal earnings, productivity, and economic output [2]. A study of educational and economic data for several countries [3] examines the functional relationship between the educational level in a societal system and the economic output as measured by the GNP per capita. The educational process is directly related to the operation and survival of a society. The relationship to societal well-being and survival is as direct and important in the case of education as it is for societal functions such as government, defense, health care or economic activity in the production and distribution of goods and services. The function of the educational process is to reproduce from generation to generation the skills, behavioral patterns and other forms of knowledge that are not reproduced genetically and constitute the reservoir of human culture. As this reservoir of cultural information has been gradually expanding, the reproductive task of the educational system has also expanded. The number of people who can be supported within a society depends on the size of the available cultural reservoir in the same direct manner as it depends on the available land and other natural resources. The addition of agriculture, for instance, to human culture increased substantially the size of the population that can be supported; a similar effect has resulted from the addition of other cultural features, such as the use of money in commercial transactions, or the adoption of laws regulating various aspects of human relationships. If the educational process is incapable of reproducing the entire cultural reservoir, some cultural feature will become entirely or partly unavailable, and the size of the population that can be adequately supported will become correspondingly smaller. The resulting destruction of life or lowering of living standards will be similar to the results of a loss of land or of other essential natural resources. The effects of the educational process are usually slower to appear than the effects of abundance or lack of food, of an epidemic, or of economic prosperity or depression. Due, perhaps, to this long time constant, the educational process is frequently thought of in personal terms rather than in terms of its societal function. Education is regarded as a good in its own right and as an improvement in the quality of an individual, as well as in his professional ability and earning capacity, and it is considered desirable that everyone be given the opportunity to acquire as much education as possible. An adequate analysis and understanding of the educational system requires, however, a more detached and objective perspective, identifying its function and purpose, the forces that propel it, the existing constraints and limitations, as well as the optimum educational level under existing circumstances and the available controls that seek to prevent excessive upward or downward fluctuations. The specific and well defined objective of education to reproduce the reservoir of cultural information is somewhat blurred by the high degree pf redundancy in the propagation of knowledge. We often learn things, especially in the domain of general education, that we may never need to use. In a complex system however, some duplication and redundancy is necessary in order to insure reliability and flexibility, as well as to simplify the educational system by allowing the use of a few standardized and wide curricula rather than a multitude of narrow ones. This type of redundancy is not an indication of inefficiency in the educational process. An educational system that would attempt to provide only useful knowledge
Age Distribution and Societal Structure
605
by anticipating exactly what each individual will use would be as wasteful and inefficient as a system that would teach all knowledge to everyone, without any specialization. The most efficient and economical way lies between the two extremes and includes necessarily some redundancy in the distribution of knowledge. The moving force behind part of the educational effort of an individual is the inborn natural desire to learn. This desire is particularly strong in children, who learn new things by observing and imitating adults, and by inquiring about everything new that they see in their environment. The magnitude of this natural motivational force is probably adequate to make an individual generate the effort necessary to learn the average amount of knowledge that a primitive man needed in order to function in his natural environment. As the amount of knowledge that had to be learned increased with the development of human culture, the natural motivational force became inadequate, and additional incentives and pressures were needed in order to sustain the educational process. These added motivational forces take the form of parental pressure, educational requirements for social acceptance, as well as high prestige and the prospect of higher earnings for educated individuals. Although education may continue in some form and to some degree throughout a person’s life, the main part of the educational process is confined within a certain age range. Education is the main preoccupation of an individual from birth and until an upper age limit that varies substantially from perhaps 10-12 years for primitive cultures to 20-25 years for complex societies. Around the point of maturation, physical and psychological needs become directed toward the achievement of genetic reproduction, and the average individual feels happier when functioning as an independent, protective adult rather than in the dependent, receiving role that the educational process would assign him. Although no exact age can be set as the upper limit for educational availability, it is clear that as an individual passes the point of physical maturation, continued educational efforts will produce increasingly stronger conflict with his natural motivation and will require the presence of powerful external pressures. If a substantial percentage of the youth of a population find themselves in such a situation, the resulting conflict and frustration may become a major disruptive force in the societal system. The temporal constraints imposed by the length of the age bracket of educational availability combined with the existing technological capability for the transmission and storage of information set a limit on the amount of knowledge that an individual can acquire through education. This limit determines in turn the maximum size of the cultural reservoir that can be maintained and reproduced without overloading the educational system. If a new technological development allows a more efficient transfer and storage of information, the educational process will be subject to a new set of more relaxed constraints, and the adequate maintenance and reproduction of a larger cultural reservoir will become possible. Such technological developments have been the use of the alphabet and the printing process; a future development of similar importance would be, for instance, the capability to bypass the learning process and to directly introduce knowledge into an individual’s brain through chemical or other means. In addition to the requirement that the educational system should not be overloaded beyond its maximum capacity under the prevailing circumstances, the output of the educational system should be also kept in balance with the existing need for educated people and the possibility to position them within the societal structure. These considerations indicate that an increase in education and culture may not necessarily be always desirable, and that the educational output should be controlled and maintained close to the optimum level that corresponds to the prevailing circumstances. seps716-c
GEORGE C. THEODORIDIS and ERNST0. AT-UNGER
606
The stability and smooth performance of the educational system depend on the adequacy of the control mechanisms that operate on it and seek to adjust the system output to the existing demand. The output of the educational system consists of the number of individuals who graduate at various levels, and its input consists of the number of individuals who are willing to devote a part of their life in order to obtain an education, as well as of the resources (teachers, educational funds) that society is willing to invest into education. The system output is aimed at satisfying the demand for educated people who are needed for the operation of the societal system. The system input is influenced by a variety of factors; some are related to the degree to which the system output matches the existing demand, while several factors are governed by other prevailing conditions. To the extent that the balance between the system output and the existing educational demand affects the system input in a corrective manner, the educational system has some capacity for controlling itself. Figure 4 illustrates in schematic form the outline of the educational system as discussed above. Among the ‘feedback factors’ that allow the balance between system output and existing demand to
Educationa
I
output
system (t~;u”;~;s expenses
1
Feedback (employment,
I\
factors salaries,
professional
status,
enviromental
pressure,
incentives)
Non- feed back factors (economic situation, average I lfe expectancy, NO. of children/family)
FIG.
4.
Schematic diagram of factors that control the educational system.
influence the system input one should count the employment situation and the resulting salaries, job security, the available choice of satisfying jobs, and the social status enjoyed by particular professions and by educated people in general. Other such feedback factors include the willingness of society to provide educational funds, incentives to encourage education, such as scholarships or draft exemptions, as well as subtle or overt pressures from parental expectations or peer group competition that motivate young people toward education. The ‘non-feedback’ factors are those that affect the system input without depending in any substantial way on the balance between the system output and the existing demand. Prominent among such factors are those affecting the capability of parents to finance the education of their children; this capability is critically dependent on such parameters as average lifetime, and average parent age at childbirth (which determine the
Age Distribution
and Societal Structure
607
length of the period during which the parents are alive and able to support their children), the average number of children per family, as well as the general level of economic prosperity. It appears that the existing feedback loops that provide corrective adjustments are much more effective and prompt in instances when the demand exceeds the output of the educational system than in the case when the imbalance is in the opposite direction. Increased demand generates crash training programs supported by scholarships and other incentives, and creates employment conditions that will attract educated individuals from other countries by offering exciting and rewarding opportunities. These mechanisms can yield substantial results within periods of the order of a few years. While the response to a lack of educated people leads to a correction of the deficiency, and can produce results in a relatively short time, the correction of an oversupply of education is not easily achieved since it seems to be easier to increase rather than to decrease the number of educated people. Once a highly educated person has been produced, he will, belong to the societal system for his entire lifetime, unless he chooses to emigrate. If he is not needed in a capacity that makes full use of his education, he cannot be easily utilized in a different capacity since most people will feel frustrated and unhappy and will be inefficient in a job substantially below their capabilities. Furthermore, people who have reached a high educational level, frequently urge and expect their children to reach at least a similar level, and will usually be able to provide them with the necessary material means. An oversupply of educated people will result in a scarcity of desirable jobs and in a generally unpleasant situation that will offer them few opportunities and little satisfaction. This situation, however, will not, at least in the short run, discourage people from acquiring an education. It may cause a switch from one area of study to another if the oversupply is limited to certain fields while others experience shortages. If, however, the oversupply covers all fields, adverse employment conditions may actually motivate some people to study even further in order to be better equipped for the tough job competition, thus causing an increase in the average level of education rather than a decrease. This type of educational inflation may lead to an artificially high level of formal educational qualifications required for various positions, far beyond the functional requirements of the job and solely justified as a means of disqualifying the excess of available candidates. A societal system that forces its members to acquire education substantially beyond what they will use in their lives is promoting inefficiency and may be overpowered and replaced by a more efficient system. An analogous situation in the business world would be a company that trains its own employees for the tasks that they are expected to perform; while some duplication and redundancy may give the company added flexibility in utilizing its employees, if the training program teaches everyone much more than he will ever use it is obvious that the company is adding unnecessary costs to its product and will not be able to survive in competition. During the last few decades, the output of the U.S. educational system has increased dramatically as illustrated in Fig. 5 by the graphs of high school graduates and of people enrolled in college as a percentage of the 17-yr-old and of the 1%21-yr-old population [4]. These graphs show that at the start of the century less than 2-3 per cent of the population had received a college education and less than 3-4 per cent had completed high school; if we assume that the present enrollment percentages will remain unchanged, the corresponding percentages of college and high school graduates will be about 45 and 80 per cent within a few decades.
608
GE~RGEC.THEODORIDLS
90
and ERNSTO. ATTINGER
U.S.
,t
4 e 60cn al g 50% + 5 40ii a
30-
i650
1900
1950
2000
FIG. 5. High school graduates and college enrollment
in the United States as a percentage of the 17-yr-old and the 18-21-yr-old population respectively [4].
Among the main factors that have produced this spectacular increase in educational output one must include the rise in economic affluence and the extension of the average life expectancy; in turn, the higher educational level has further enhanced these same factors by improving productivity and health care. An increase of the average lifespan makes it easier for young people to reach a higher level of education, since their parents, who usually finance their studies, are alive and active for a longer time. In addition, the inducements offered by society in order to motivate people toward education obtain a higher value if the average life expectancy is extended; the social status and the higher earnings that an educated person can expect to enjoy will extend over his lifetime, and are worth more the longer he can expect to live. Thus, an extended life expectancy will make education both more accessible and more attractive for an individual, and can be therefore expected to lead to a higher average level of education. While, for instance, the average person could hardly be expected to invest about 20 yr in order to obtain a college education when the average lifespan was 30 or 40 yrs, such an investment may be both feasible and reasonable if the average individual can expect to live and enjoy the resulting benefits up to an age of 70 3r more. Inadequate control and excessive instabilities in the educational process do not just inconvenience the individuals involved, but can cause a lasting disruption of the entire process. A massive educational overproduction may permanently blunt the forces that propel the educational process by diminishing the high regard in which education is held and by eliminating some of the financial and social incentives that motivate people toward education. The situation is analogous to that of an economy that lacks adequate control mechanisms and reaches a point of excessive overproduction of goods. The resulting low prices may actually ruin a large fraction of the producers and permanently eliminate a substantial part of the existing means of production. A similar effect in the field of education may cripple the
Age Distribution
and Societal Structure
609
existing machinery for the reproduction of the cultural reservoir and lead to a serious cultural reverse. Much caution is necessary in trying to avoid such developments because we are dealing with a system whose operational characteristics, response time constants and capacity for safe recovery are largely unknown. It is thus difficult to assess if at a given time the system is merely undergoing a normal and safe perturbation from which it can recover through its own self-regulating control mechanisms, or whether it has started on a runaway course leading to disastrous consequences. DISCUSSION
The substantial changes that are occurring in the age and educational distribution of contemporary populations are creating a widening gap between the type of positions that will be available in the societal structure and the type of individuals who will be seeking them. The magnitude of the change that is to be expected in the age distribution is illustrated by comparing the age distributions for the U.K. in 1871 and 1963 (Fig. 3b). The population in the O-30 age group has decreased by about 30 per cent while in the 40-70 age group it has increased about 70 per cent. The magnitude of the change in the educational distribution was discussed in the preceding section; the percentage of college and high school graduates in the U.S. population can be expected to become about twenty times higher than at the start of the century. The societal structure is also changing, and there are increasing numbers of leadership positions requiring education and experience. It is clear, however, that several decades ago an individual of a certain level of education and seniority would have expected a position of a much higher importance and responsibility within the societal structure than he would obtain today with similar education and seniority. The congestion of qualified candidates around the scarce positions at the top of the societal structure can be relieved to some extent through a widespread policy of early retirement. This approach, however, will become increasingly inefficient and wasteful, as improving health care can be expected to enable people to enjoy good health and be active until later in life. Through premature retirement society loses human resources that were produced at a high cost, and the individuals involved are deprived of the opportunity to lead a productive and satisfying life. An alternative approach is to control and shape the characteristics of the available human resources so as to match as closely as possible the spectrum of positions in the societal structure. The age distribution of the population is directly determined by the mortality rate and cannot therefore be controlled or adjusted in any manner that would be morally acceptable. The educational distribution, however, is susceptible to external controls and can conceivably be shaped to better conform to existing societal needs. In the past, the educational system has been controlled almost exclusively through its own built-in control mechanisms, based on a trial and error adjustment of supply and demand. These mechanisms seem to be too weak and too slow to adequately control the present massive and rapid changes. The introduction of additional control mechanisms in the educational process would parallel a similar development in the economic sector; when the built-in control mechanisms of supply and demand proved inadequate to control a vast economy and prevent excessive fluctuations and instabilities, additional controls were introduced which allow us to stimulate or restrain the economy through the adjustment of the money supply, the level of government spending or the level of taxation. Economic incentives can be effective and have been used in the past in order to increase the educational output (e.g. scholarship programs, financial support for educational insti-
610
GEORGEC. THEOD~RJDIS and ERNST0. ATTINGER
tutions). It is doubtful, however, if economic controls can or should be used in order to reduce the educational output. Financial burdens or penalties would tend to limit education to the rich with serious social consequences, Effective control can be exercised through factors that exert a substantial influence on an individual’s decision on whether to pursue an education or on the choice of speciality. A possible approach would be to introduce as a prerequisite for college admission a certain period of work experience. The length of this period could be different for various fields according to the anticipated demand, and could be used as a powerful lever in order to direct the flow of students toward the areas where they are most needed, and to adjust the total educational output to the existing demand. A disadvantage in this scheme would be the disruption of an individual’s educational effort through the imposed interruption, and the fact that college education would be postponed until an age when the learning capacity of the individual may be diminished. In addition, the societal investment in an individual’s education will be yielding returns for a shorter period of time. This loss, however, would be preferable to the loss of productive years through early retirement; the period of precollege employment would be more productive and less frustrating than the period of inaction of a prematurely retired person. Acknowledgements-We thank Dr. I. Priban for extremely helpful discussions, and Mrs. Beverly S. McGeady for valuable help in the collection and organization of the data. This work was in part supported through a NIH Biomedical Sciences Support Grant. REFERENCES 1. N. KEYFITZand W. FLIEGER, World Population: An Analysis of Vital Data. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1968). 2. H. P. MILLER, Annual and lifetime income in relation to education: 1939-1959, Am. Econ. Rev, L, 962 (1960); H. S. HOUTHAKKER,Education and income, Rev. Econ. Statist. 4, 24 (1959); GIORA HANOCH, An economic analysis of earnings and schooling, J. Human Res. 2, 310 (1967); W. LEE HANSEN,Total and private rates of return to investment in schooling, .7. Polit. Econ. 81, 128, (1963); B.A. WEISSBRODEducation and investment in human capital, J. Polit. Econ. 70, 106 (1962); B. W. WILKINSON, Present values of lifetime earnings for different occuaations. J. Polit. Econ. 84, 556 (1966); F. WELCH, Education in production, J. Polit. Econ.?8, 35 (1970). 3. H. MILLENDORFER and E. 0. ATTINGER, Global systems dynamics, Medical Care 6, 467 (1968): H. MILLENDORFER,Input-output relations between social systems, Global Systems byna’hics (Ed. by E. 0. ATTI~GER)py 161. S. Karger, Base1 (1970). 4. U. S. BUREAUOFTHECENSUS,Historical Statistics of the U.S., Colonial Times to 1957, pp. 207, 210. Washington, D.C. (1960); U.S. BUREAUOFTHECENSUS, Statistical Abstract of the U.S., 1970, p. 127. Washington, DC. (1970).
Ph.
Sci. Vol. 7, pp. 599610
(1973). Pergamon Press. Printed in Great Britain
AGE DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION SOCIETAL STRUCTURE GEORGE C. THEODORIDIS
AND
and ERNST 0. ATTINGER
Division of Biomedical Engineering, School of Engineering and Applied Science and School of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22901 (Received 5 March 1973)
Age distribution, educational distribution and societal structure are interrelated parameters that, in the past, were adjusted to each other in an equilibrium that was only perturbed by rather small and slow changes. Built-in trial and error control mechanisms were evidently capable of containing these minor perturbations without excessive instabilities. Recently, major and fast changes have been occurring in the age distribution through the substantial extension of human life expectancy, and in the educational distribution through the wide availability of educational opportunities. The existing trial and error control mechanisms seem to be inadequate for such major perturbations, and new controls will have to be introduced in order to avoid serious instability and disruption. While the age distribution cannot becontrolled through morally acceptable means, ways must be found to control the educational distribution, and to match it to existing societal needs. INTRODUCTION of an average person’s life is devoted to his role as a part of a societal structure that consists of institutions such as the state, the church, as well as various other organizations that produce and distribute goods and services. The smooth operation of the societal system, as well as the personal satisfaction and fulfillment of its constituents depends to a substantial extent on the successful matching of individuals with appropriate positions within the societal structure. Two basic characteristics of a population are its distribution vs age and its distribution vs educational level; these characteristics should be adequately matched to the features of the societal structure so that the population should contain a number of individuals of a given age and educational level that is comparable to the number of positions within the societal structure that are appropriate to that age and educational level. The age distribution and the educational distribution in most societies are currently undergoing substantial and rapid changes toward age distributions with a higher precentage of mature people and toward educational distributions with a higher percentage of educated people. These rapid changes are continuously upsetting the matching of the available human resources to the existing needs within the societal structure. The process through which this matching is effected must be flexible enough in order to adapt smoothly to the changing conditions without excessive imbalances between resources and needs. In this article we shall examine some of the factors behind the current rapid changes in the age and educational distributions, and discuss the possibility of controlling some of these factors as a means toward a better matching of human resources to societal needs.
A MAJOR segment
599
600
GEORGEC.
THEODORIDIS
and ERNST0. A-ITINGER
The schematic diagram in Fig. 1 summarizes the main elements that enter into the process of matching human resources to the societal structure. The basic parameters that define the problem are on the one hand the characteristics of the human resources and on the other hand the spectrum of various positions that constitute the societal structure. The main characteristics of the human resources are broadly summarized by the age and educational distributions of the population; the pertinent feature of the societal structure is the distribution of the existing positions according to the capiibility, knowledge and experience that they require.
Mortality rates
_
Age distribution
\
Matching Human resources
retirement Age d~str~butm; flnonclal status.
process:
Educotionol and age requirements; policies
m
Societal structure
occepvxl values and standards
FIG. 1. Schematic diagram of the process of matching human resources to the societal structure.
To achieve a satisfactory solution to the matching problem requires that procedures and criteria must be devised through which each position within the societal structure is filled by an individual with adequate capabilities, education and experience. Also, the criteria will have to guarantee that each individual should have the opportunity to fill a position which makes reasonably full use of his potential. Solutions that have been used by various societies include some where an individual’s role and place in society is to a large degree determined by his birth (strict social classes and castes, or hereditary professional guilds), some where age seniority and educational titles are predominant criteria of advancement in the societal structure, and others where performance is given considerable weight, often overshadowing birth, seniority, education or experience. The placing of individuals into the societal structure is accomplished using a combinaton of laws, traditions, customs, or principles that determine the value and prestige attached to education, seniority or birth. Many of these principles are part of the value system, and are often accepted by an individual as part of his cultural heritage, without knowledge of the real function they serve in society. The result is a very slowly responding system which is not adapting at a rate corresponding to that of the occurring changes. In the past, changes in the age and educational distribution or in the societal structure occurred slov3 and covered periods of time spanning several generations. The matching of the age and educational distribution to the societal structure could adjust to such slow changes through a gradual trial and error process. Today changes are rapid and there is not sufficient time for adapting through trial and error. During the last few decades lower mortality rates have drastically changed the age distribution of many advanced societies, increasing substantially the proportion of mature
Age Distribution and Societal Structure
601
In most contemporary societies the mortality rate has been substantially reduced, and most deaths are caused by degenerative diseases that affect predominantly the older people. This change in the mortality rate has two distinct effects:
people.
(a) If the birth rate is not reduced to match the lower total mortality rate, explosive population growth will result. This effect is currently arousing much concern, and various measures are being considered as a way of limiting the birth rate. (b) The new distribution of mortality vs age leads to a drastic change in the age distribution of the population toward a higher ratio of mature to young people. This effect would not be eliminated by reducing the birth rate to the level of the new mortality rate. The opposite holds true, this effect being most pronounced in precisely such steady state populations. Concurrently with the changing age distribution, there are rapid changes in the educational distribution of contemporary populations towards a higher proportion of educated individuals. Higher numbers of people have become able to provide their children with educational opportunities for longer periods of time. The waste of human capital that was due to excessive premature deaths of parents and of children has been reduced and, in turn, this partly resulted in a larger educational investment and a higher level of education. The concurrent changes in the age and the educational distributions are altering the basic features of the human resources that are to fill the existing positions within the societal structure. The process of matching human resources to societal needs is thus perturbed to the extent where correction by slow, triai and error adjustment of existing laws, habits, and values is unlikely to bring about an equilibrium within a reasonable time. It will be necessary, therefore, to study and understand the processes involved, in order that the needed adjustments can be designed and engineered so that adequate and fast results can be obtained. AGE
DISTRIBUTION
Figure 2 illustrates some relationships between the demographic variables that determine the shape of an age distribution. Figures 2(b) and 2(d) show the stationary age distribution curves for two different distributions of the death rate (Figs. 2(a) and 2(c) respectively). In Fig. 2(a) deaths are distributed evenly over all ages. The distributed death rate is expressed in deaths/yr within a I-yr age interval, i.e. in deaths/y?. The birth rate is B births/yr and the maximum lifetime is L yr. The steady state condition is :
B=Ld
(1) and the resulting stationary age distribution P(x) decreases linearly with age x between x = 0 and x = L (Fig. 2b). The distribution function P(x) can be expressed in numbers of people or percentage of the total population within a I-yr age interval (people/yr or per cent/yr). In Fig. 2(c), all deaths are assumed to occur at the end of the maximum lifetime L. The concentrated death rate is D deaths&. The steady state condition is : D=B (2) and the stationary age distribution P(x) in constant (Fig. 2d). Figures 2(f), 2(g) and 2(h) illustrate time dependent age distributions for a population with birth rate B(t) that grows linearly with time t: B(t) = b t.
(3)
602
GEORGEC. THZODORIDIS and ERNST0. AI-TINGER
D = concentrated death rate
Age x
L
Age x
L
FIG. 2
(a,b). Stationary age distribution for distributed death rate. (c,d) Stationary age distribution for concentrated death rate. (e,f,g,h) Time dependent age distributions for growing birth rate and concentrated death rate.
Deaths are assumed to be concentrated at the end of the maximum lifetime L (Fig. 2e). The age distribution function P(Q), denoting the number of people of age x at a time t, is given by the equation : P(x,t) = B(t-x)
= (t--x)b.
(4)
Figures 2(f), 2(g) and 2(h) illustrate the shape of P(x,t) at time t < L, t = L and t > L. Note that the transient age distributions in the case of a growing birth rate and a concentrated death rate resemble the stationary age distribution in the case of a constant birth rate and a distributed death rate (Fig. 2b). Figure 3 displays some data on the death rates and the age distributions in the United Kingdom and in the United States. Figure 3(a) compares the distribution of deaths in the U.K. for the years 1871 and 1963. The distribution curve for 1871, with the exception of the age bracket of O-5 years, is rather evenly distributed with age, approximating the case of a distributed death rate in Fig. 2(a). The curve for 1963 shows a marked concentration of deaths around the age bracket of 60-90 years, approximating the case of a concentrated death rate of Fig. 2(c). Figure 3(b) compares the age distribution histograms for the U.K. in 1871 and 1963. The two distributions show the general features of the theoretical age distribution functions of Fig. 2. It should be noted that the distributions of Fig. 3(b) are not stationary age distributions since they do not refer to a steady state population. Figures 3(d) and 3(e) compare the actual age distributions of Fig. 3(b) with the corresponding stationary age distribution curves, derived under the assumption that the prevailing mortality rates vs age are preserved and the birth rate is adjusted accordingly to achieve steady state. The actual age distribution for 1963 is rather close to the stationary one (Fig. 3e), while the actual distribution for 1871
Age Distribution
603
and Societal Structure
us
UK
I
(d)
(e)
U.K. 1871
U.K. 1963
I
(f)
I
U.S. 1964
i’~~~~~~~ 0
10 2030405060706090
0 102030405060706090
Am
FIG. 3 (a). Death rate distributions
0
102030405060709090
Yr
in the United Kingdom. (b-f) Age distributions and the United States [l].
in the United Kingdom
deviates appreciably from the stationary distribution (Fig. 3d), indicating a rapidly growing population. Figure 3(c) compares the age distributions for the United States in 1870 and 1964. While the change is again quite pronounced, the distribution for 1964 is obviously still far from approaching the stationary distribution. Figure 3(f) compares the age distribution for the United States in 1964 with the corresponding stationary distribution, derived under the premises described above. We note a substantial excess of the actual young population above the stationary level, indicative of fast growth. The marked dip around the 30 yr age bracket reflects the severe drop in births during the depression decade of the 30’s. The alternating periods of very high and severely depressed birth rates, as they are reflected in the 1964 age distribution for the U.S., are an indication of a substantial oscillation around the level of equilibrium. In the U.K. the system seems to operate in a more stable mode, remaining closer to the equilibrium level. An interesting consideration is related to the fact that the transient age distribution of a growing population with a concentrated death rate (Figs. Zf, 2g and 2h) is sloped with age in a manner resembling the stationary age distribution of a steady population with a distributed death rate (Fig. 2b). This makes it possible that an abrupt change, such as the one that has been occurring in recent times, from a distributed to a concentrated death rate (Fig. 3a) may generate forces enhancing population growth as an indirect way of temporarily preserving a sloped age distribution and thus postponing the necessity to readjust the societal structure so as to match a flat age distribution.
604
GEORGEC. THEO~RIDISand ERNST0. AXTINGER EDUCATION
Of the different subsystems that are operating within a society, the educational system is probably, next to the economy, the most amenable to quantitative treatment and analysis. Data on its size, costs and output are relatively accessible for contemporary societies as well as for some societies in the past. Several studies have examined the relationship between education viewed as an investment and its returns in personal earnings, productivity, and economic output [2]. A study of educational and economic data for several countries [3] examines the functional relationship between the educational level in a societal system and the economic output as measured by the GNP per capita. The educational process is directly related to the operation and survival of a society. The relationship to societal well-being and survival is as direct and important in the case of education as it is for societal functions such as government, defense, health care or economic activity in the production and distribution of goods and services. The function of the educational process is to reproduce from generation to generation the skills, behavioral patterns and other forms of knowledge that are not reproduced genetically and constitute the reservoir of human culture. As this reservoir of cultural information has been gradually expanding, the reproductive task of the educational system has also expanded. The number of people who can be supported within a society depends on the size of the available cultural reservoir in the same direct manner as it depends on the available land and other natural resources. The addition of agriculture, for instance, to human culture increased substantially the size of the population that can be supported; a similar effect has resulted from the addition of other cultural features, such as the use of money in commercial transactions, or the adoption of laws regulating various aspects of human relationships. If the educational process is incapable of reproducing the entire cultural reservoir, some cultural feature will become entirely or partly unavailable, and the size of the population that can be adequately supported will become correspondingly smaller. The resulting destruction of life or lowering of living standards will be similar to the results of a loss of land or of other essential natural resources. The effects of the educational process are usually slower to appear than the effects of abundance or lack of food, of an epidemic, or of economic prosperity or depression. Due, perhaps, to this long time constant, the educational process is frequently thought of in personal terms rather than in terms of its societal function. Education is regarded as a good in its own right and as an improvement in the quality of an individual, as well as in his professional ability and earning capacity, and it is considered desirable that everyone be given the opportunity to acquire as much education as possible. An adequate analysis and understanding of the educational system requires, however, a more detached and objective perspective, identifying its function and purpose, the forces that propel it, the existing constraints and limitations, as well as the optimum educational level under existing circumstances and the available controls that seek to prevent excessive upward or downward fluctuations. The specific and well defined objective of education to reproduce the reservoir of cultural information is somewhat blurred by the high degree pf redundancy in the propagation of knowledge. We often learn things, especially in the domain of general education, that we may never need to use. In a complex system however, some duplication and redundancy is necessary in order to insure reliability and flexibility, as well as to simplify the educational system by allowing the use of a few standardized and wide curricula rather than a multitude of narrow ones. This type of redundancy is not an indication of inefficiency in the educational process. An educational system that would attempt to provide only useful knowledge
Age Distribution and Societal Structure
605
by anticipating exactly what each individual will use would be as wasteful and inefficient as a system that would teach all knowledge to everyone, without any specialization. The most efficient and economical way lies between the two extremes and includes necessarily some redundancy in the distribution of knowledge. The moving force behind part of the educational effort of an individual is the inborn natural desire to learn. This desire is particularly strong in children, who learn new things by observing and imitating adults, and by inquiring about everything new that they see in their environment. The magnitude of this natural motivational force is probably adequate to make an individual generate the effort necessary to learn the average amount of knowledge that a primitive man needed in order to function in his natural environment. As the amount of knowledge that had to be learned increased with the development of human culture, the natural motivational force became inadequate, and additional incentives and pressures were needed in order to sustain the educational process. These added motivational forces take the form of parental pressure, educational requirements for social acceptance, as well as high prestige and the prospect of higher earnings for educated individuals. Although education may continue in some form and to some degree throughout a person’s life, the main part of the educational process is confined within a certain age range. Education is the main preoccupation of an individual from birth and until an upper age limit that varies substantially from perhaps 10-12 years for primitive cultures to 20-25 years for complex societies. Around the point of maturation, physical and psychological needs become directed toward the achievement of genetic reproduction, and the average individual feels happier when functioning as an independent, protective adult rather than in the dependent, receiving role that the educational process would assign him. Although no exact age can be set as the upper limit for educational availability, it is clear that as an individual passes the point of physical maturation, continued educational efforts will produce increasingly stronger conflict with his natural motivation and will require the presence of powerful external pressures. If a substantial percentage of the youth of a population find themselves in such a situation, the resulting conflict and frustration may become a major disruptive force in the societal system. The temporal constraints imposed by the length of the age bracket of educational availability combined with the existing technological capability for the transmission and storage of information set a limit on the amount of knowledge that an individual can acquire through education. This limit determines in turn the maximum size of the cultural reservoir that can be maintained and reproduced without overloading the educational system. If a new technological development allows a more efficient transfer and storage of information, the educational process will be subject to a new set of more relaxed constraints, and the adequate maintenance and reproduction of a larger cultural reservoir will become possible. Such technological developments have been the use of the alphabet and the printing process; a future development of similar importance would be, for instance, the capability to bypass the learning process and to directly introduce knowledge into an individual’s brain through chemical or other means. In addition to the requirement that the educational system should not be overloaded beyond its maximum capacity under the prevailing circumstances, the output of the educational system should be also kept in balance with the existing need for educated people and the possibility to position them within the societal structure. These considerations indicate that an increase in education and culture may not necessarily be always desirable, and that the educational output should be controlled and maintained close to the optimum level that corresponds to the prevailing circumstances. seps716-c
GEORGE C. THEODORIDIS and ERNST0. AT-UNGER
606
The stability and smooth performance of the educational system depend on the adequacy of the control mechanisms that operate on it and seek to adjust the system output to the existing demand. The output of the educational system consists of the number of individuals who graduate at various levels, and its input consists of the number of individuals who are willing to devote a part of their life in order to obtain an education, as well as of the resources (teachers, educational funds) that society is willing to invest into education. The system output is aimed at satisfying the demand for educated people who are needed for the operation of the societal system. The system input is influenced by a variety of factors; some are related to the degree to which the system output matches the existing demand, while several factors are governed by other prevailing conditions. To the extent that the balance between the system output and the existing educational demand affects the system input in a corrective manner, the educational system has some capacity for controlling itself. Figure 4 illustrates in schematic form the outline of the educational system as discussed above. Among the ‘feedback factors’ that allow the balance between system output and existing demand to
Educationa
I
output
system (t~;u”;~;s expenses
1
Feedback (employment,
I\
factors salaries,
professional
status,
enviromental
pressure,
incentives)
Non- feed back factors (economic situation, average I lfe expectancy, NO. of children/family)
FIG.
4.
Schematic diagram of factors that control the educational system.
influence the system input one should count the employment situation and the resulting salaries, job security, the available choice of satisfying jobs, and the social status enjoyed by particular professions and by educated people in general. Other such feedback factors include the willingness of society to provide educational funds, incentives to encourage education, such as scholarships or draft exemptions, as well as subtle or overt pressures from parental expectations or peer group competition that motivate young people toward education. The ‘non-feedback’ factors are those that affect the system input without depending in any substantial way on the balance between the system output and the existing demand. Prominent among such factors are those affecting the capability of parents to finance the education of their children; this capability is critically dependent on such parameters as average lifetime, and average parent age at childbirth (which determine the
Age Distribution
and Societal Structure
607
length of the period during which the parents are alive and able to support their children), the average number of children per family, as well as the general level of economic prosperity. It appears that the existing feedback loops that provide corrective adjustments are much more effective and prompt in instances when the demand exceeds the output of the educational system than in the case when the imbalance is in the opposite direction. Increased demand generates crash training programs supported by scholarships and other incentives, and creates employment conditions that will attract educated individuals from other countries by offering exciting and rewarding opportunities. These mechanisms can yield substantial results within periods of the order of a few years. While the response to a lack of educated people leads to a correction of the deficiency, and can produce results in a relatively short time, the correction of an oversupply of education is not easily achieved since it seems to be easier to increase rather than to decrease the number of educated people. Once a highly educated person has been produced, he will, belong to the societal system for his entire lifetime, unless he chooses to emigrate. If he is not needed in a capacity that makes full use of his education, he cannot be easily utilized in a different capacity since most people will feel frustrated and unhappy and will be inefficient in a job substantially below their capabilities. Furthermore, people who have reached a high educational level, frequently urge and expect their children to reach at least a similar level, and will usually be able to provide them with the necessary material means. An oversupply of educated people will result in a scarcity of desirable jobs and in a generally unpleasant situation that will offer them few opportunities and little satisfaction. This situation, however, will not, at least in the short run, discourage people from acquiring an education. It may cause a switch from one area of study to another if the oversupply is limited to certain fields while others experience shortages. If, however, the oversupply covers all fields, adverse employment conditions may actually motivate some people to study even further in order to be better equipped for the tough job competition, thus causing an increase in the average level of education rather than a decrease. This type of educational inflation may lead to an artificially high level of formal educational qualifications required for various positions, far beyond the functional requirements of the job and solely justified as a means of disqualifying the excess of available candidates. A societal system that forces its members to acquire education substantially beyond what they will use in their lives is promoting inefficiency and may be overpowered and replaced by a more efficient system. An analogous situation in the business world would be a company that trains its own employees for the tasks that they are expected to perform; while some duplication and redundancy may give the company added flexibility in utilizing its employees, if the training program teaches everyone much more than he will ever use it is obvious that the company is adding unnecessary costs to its product and will not be able to survive in competition. During the last few decades, the output of the U.S. educational system has increased dramatically as illustrated in Fig. 5 by the graphs of high school graduates and of people enrolled in college as a percentage of the 17-yr-old and of the 1%21-yr-old population [4]. These graphs show that at the start of the century less than 2-3 per cent of the population had received a college education and less than 3-4 per cent had completed high school; if we assume that the present enrollment percentages will remain unchanged, the corresponding percentages of college and high school graduates will be about 45 and 80 per cent within a few decades.
608
GE~RGEC.THEODORIDLS
90
and ERNSTO. ATTINGER
U.S.
,t
4 e 60cn al g 50% + 5 40ii a
30-
i650
1900
1950
2000
FIG. 5. High school graduates and college enrollment
in the United States as a percentage of the 17-yr-old and the 18-21-yr-old population respectively [4].
Among the main factors that have produced this spectacular increase in educational output one must include the rise in economic affluence and the extension of the average life expectancy; in turn, the higher educational level has further enhanced these same factors by improving productivity and health care. An increase of the average lifespan makes it easier for young people to reach a higher level of education, since their parents, who usually finance their studies, are alive and active for a longer time. In addition, the inducements offered by society in order to motivate people toward education obtain a higher value if the average life expectancy is extended; the social status and the higher earnings that an educated person can expect to enjoy will extend over his lifetime, and are worth more the longer he can expect to live. Thus, an extended life expectancy will make education both more accessible and more attractive for an individual, and can be therefore expected to lead to a higher average level of education. While, for instance, the average person could hardly be expected to invest about 20 yr in order to obtain a college education when the average lifespan was 30 or 40 yrs, such an investment may be both feasible and reasonable if the average individual can expect to live and enjoy the resulting benefits up to an age of 70 3r more. Inadequate control and excessive instabilities in the educational process do not just inconvenience the individuals involved, but can cause a lasting disruption of the entire process. A massive educational overproduction may permanently blunt the forces that propel the educational process by diminishing the high regard in which education is held and by eliminating some of the financial and social incentives that motivate people toward education. The situation is analogous to that of an economy that lacks adequate control mechanisms and reaches a point of excessive overproduction of goods. The resulting low prices may actually ruin a large fraction of the producers and permanently eliminate a substantial part of the existing means of production. A similar effect in the field of education may cripple the
Age Distribution
and Societal Structure
609
existing machinery for the reproduction of the cultural reservoir and lead to a serious cultural reverse. Much caution is necessary in trying to avoid such developments because we are dealing with a system whose operational characteristics, response time constants and capacity for safe recovery are largely unknown. It is thus difficult to assess if at a given time the system is merely undergoing a normal and safe perturbation from which it can recover through its own self-regulating control mechanisms, or whether it has started on a runaway course leading to disastrous consequences. DISCUSSION
The substantial changes that are occurring in the age and educational distribution of contemporary populations are creating a widening gap between the type of positions that will be available in the societal structure and the type of individuals who will be seeking them. The magnitude of the change that is to be expected in the age distribution is illustrated by comparing the age distributions for the U.K. in 1871 and 1963 (Fig. 3b). The population in the O-30 age group has decreased by about 30 per cent while in the 40-70 age group it has increased about 70 per cent. The magnitude of the change in the educational distribution was discussed in the preceding section; the percentage of college and high school graduates in the U.S. population can be expected to become about twenty times higher than at the start of the century. The societal structure is also changing, and there are increasing numbers of leadership positions requiring education and experience. It is clear, however, that several decades ago an individual of a certain level of education and seniority would have expected a position of a much higher importance and responsibility within the societal structure than he would obtain today with similar education and seniority. The congestion of qualified candidates around the scarce positions at the top of the societal structure can be relieved to some extent through a widespread policy of early retirement. This approach, however, will become increasingly inefficient and wasteful, as improving health care can be expected to enable people to enjoy good health and be active until later in life. Through premature retirement society loses human resources that were produced at a high cost, and the individuals involved are deprived of the opportunity to lead a productive and satisfying life. An alternative approach is to control and shape the characteristics of the available human resources so as to match as closely as possible the spectrum of positions in the societal structure. The age distribution of the population is directly determined by the mortality rate and cannot therefore be controlled or adjusted in any manner that would be morally acceptable. The educational distribution, however, is susceptible to external controls and can conceivably be shaped to better conform to existing societal needs. In the past, the educational system has been controlled almost exclusively through its own built-in control mechanisms, based on a trial and error adjustment of supply and demand. These mechanisms seem to be too weak and too slow to adequately control the present massive and rapid changes. The introduction of additional control mechanisms in the educational process would parallel a similar development in the economic sector; when the built-in control mechanisms of supply and demand proved inadequate to control a vast economy and prevent excessive fluctuations and instabilities, additional controls were introduced which allow us to stimulate or restrain the economy through the adjustment of the money supply, the level of government spending or the level of taxation. Economic incentives can be effective and have been used in the past in order to increase the educational output (e.g. scholarship programs, financial support for educational insti-
610
GEORGEC. THEOD~RJDIS and ERNST0. ATTINGER
tutions). It is doubtful, however, if economic controls can or should be used in order to reduce the educational output. Financial burdens or penalties would tend to limit education to the rich with serious social consequences, Effective control can be exercised through factors that exert a substantial influence on an individual’s decision on whether to pursue an education or on the choice of speciality. A possible approach would be to introduce as a prerequisite for college admission a certain period of work experience. The length of this period could be different for various fields according to the anticipated demand, and could be used as a powerful lever in order to direct the flow of students toward the areas where they are most needed, and to adjust the total educational output to the existing demand. A disadvantage in this scheme would be the disruption of an individual’s educational effort through the imposed interruption, and the fact that college education would be postponed until an age when the learning capacity of the individual may be diminished. In addition, the societal investment in an individual’s education will be yielding returns for a shorter period of time. This loss, however, would be preferable to the loss of productive years through early retirement; the period of precollege employment would be more productive and less frustrating than the period of inaction of a prematurely retired person. Acknowledgements-We thank Dr. I. Priban for extremely helpful discussions, and Mrs. Beverly S. McGeady for valuable help in the collection and organization of the data. This work was in part supported through a NIH Biomedical Sciences Support Grant. REFERENCES 1. N. KEYFITZand W. FLIEGER, World Population: An Analysis of Vital Data. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1968). 2. H. P. MILLER, Annual and lifetime income in relation to education: 1939-1959, Am. Econ. Rev, L, 962 (1960); H. S. HOUTHAKKER,Education and income, Rev. Econ. Statist. 4, 24 (1959); GIORA HANOCH, An economic analysis of earnings and schooling, J. Human Res. 2, 310 (1967); W. LEE HANSEN,Total and private rates of return to investment in schooling, .7. Polit. Econ. 81, 128, (1963); B.A. WEISSBRODEducation and investment in human capital, J. Polit. Econ. 70, 106 (1962); B. W. WILKINSON, Present values of lifetime earnings for different occuaations. J. Polit. Econ. 84, 556 (1966); F. WELCH, Education in production, J. Polit. Econ.?8, 35 (1970). 3. H. MILLENDORFER and E. 0. ATTINGER, Global systems dynamics, Medical Care 6, 467 (1968): H. MILLENDORFER,Input-output relations between social systems, Global Systems byna’hics (Ed. by E. 0. ATTI~GER)py 161. S. Karger, Base1 (1970). 4. U. S. BUREAUOFTHECENSUS,Historical Statistics of the U.S., Colonial Times to 1957, pp. 207, 210. Washington, D.C. (1960); U.S. BUREAUOFTHECENSUS, Statistical Abstract of the U.S., 1970, p. 127. Washington, DC. (1970).