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Age-related Lifecycles
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Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 801–818, 2002 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved Printed in Great Britain 0160-7383/02/$22.00
PII: S0160-7383(01)00081-0
AGE-RELATED LIFECYCLES Purpose Variations Darrian Collins Clem Tisdell The University of Queensland, Australia Abstract: By describing and discussing Australian data on outbound tourism, this paper investigates the bimodal (double peaked) lifecycle pattern predicted and observed in the literature. These theories are primarily based on demand for holiday tourism, but tourists do not just go overseas for this purpose, with visiting friends and relatives, business, convention and conference, employment and educational tourism relevant purposes also. Trips overseas by Australians are split into these groups, enabling the age-related lifecycles of each to be examined separately. Unlike holiday tourism, all other purposes are unimodal, although they vary with respect to the age groups at which they peak and their relative positions. Keywords: lifecycle, purpose, age-related functions, Australia, outbound. 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Re´sume´: Cet article e´tudie, en de´crivant et discutant des donne´es australiennes au sujet du tourisme sortant, le mode`le bimodal (a` deux apoge´es) qui est pre´vu et observe´ dans la litte´rature. Ces the´ories sont base´es surtout sur la demande pour le tourisme de vacances. Mais les touristes vont a` l’e´tranger non seulement pour les vacances mais aussi pour voir des amis et de la famille; pour le commerce, des congre`s et des confe´rences; et pour travailler ou e´tudier. Les voyages a` l’e´tranger par des Australiens se partagent entre ces six groupes, ` la diffe´rence ce qui permet d’examiner se´pare´ment les cycles de vie lie´s a` l’aˆge de chacun. A du tourisme de vacances, toutes les autres raisons sont unimodales, quoiqu’elles varient selon les groupes d’aˆge auxquels elles atteignent leur maximum et leur position relative. Motscle´s: cycle de vie, intention, fonction lie´e a` l’aˆge, Australie, sortant. 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
INTRODUCTION Becker (1992) and Lawson (1991) were probably the first scholars to argue that the distances traveled by tourists vary systematically with their age. This relationship is influenced to some extent by the family lifecycle. Oppermann (1995a) further explored these relationships. However, in developing their hypothesis, these authors concentrate only on tourism for holiday vaction purposes and not surprisingly suggest that such a lifecycle as a function of age is bimodal. In doing so, they ignore the fact that a significant proportion of tourism occurs for
Darrian Collins is Lecturer in the School of Economics, The University of Queensland (Brisbane, 4072, Australia. Email). Her main research interests include all aspects of tourism demand and applied econometrics. Clem Tisdell is Professor of Economics in the School of Economics, The University of Queensland. His research interests include tourism economics, especially in respect to the environment. 801
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purposes other than a holiday, and that for some, the age-related tourism pattern is not bimodal. The main contention of this article is that it is important to specify age-related lifecycles by tourism purpose. For some of these, such as business, a bimodal cycle does not occur—in fact, a unimodal relationship is present. A study of age-related overseas tourism patterns of Australian residents by Collins and Tisdell (2000) suggested that the bimodal lifecycle hypothesis of Becker (1992) and Lawson (1991) may need to be modified or qualified. In the 1991–94 data, no evidence is found of a bimodal (double peaked) outbound pattern when total overseas departures of Australian residents are examined. It was speculated that this might be due to reasons other than holidays, such as business tourism. Since data for Australian outbound tourists were unavailable at the time of the earlier study, this hypothesis could not be examined. Data have now come to hand enabling this hypothesis to be tested. These data also allow cross-sectioned cycles to be specified for different groups. These cycles are found to vary considerably with the purpose of going overseas. Existing lifecycle hypotheses are modified in this article. This is done by observing the relative frequency of outbound tourists, each expressed as a function of age. In the short to medium-term, age and the family lifecycle are highly correlated. Consequently, age can be used to speculate about the connections between family lifecycle and the age-related tourism functions. The purposes considered are holidays, visiting friends and relatives, business, convention or conference, employment, and education. This paper briefly reviews existing hypotheses about age-related tourism lifecycles, outlines previous empirical results, reviews hypotheses about family lifecycles, and considers connections between these two types. It suggests that while the nature of age-related lifecycles is influenced by the traditional family lifecycle, it is not completely dependent on it. Australian data are then used to specify outbound age-related cycles. Using the chi-squared test of independence, these cycles are shown to differ considerably depending on the purpose of visit. AGE-RELATED LIFECYCLES AND PURPOSES Becker (1992) and Lawson (1991) observed that the lifecycle pattern for holiday tourism has two peaks (is bimodal). They found that the distance traveled declined in the 34–48 age group. In 1998, only about 47% of short-term outbound departures from Australia were for holiday purposes. The remainder included trips to visit friends and relatives (24%), business, employment, or to attend a convention or conference (22.2%), educational purposes (1.3%) and other unspecified reasons. Although individually these are smaller than the holiday market, in terms of the total number of tourists combined they are important, especially the first two components. It is commonly believed that the demand for tourism is affected by demographic and socioeconomic relationships such as age, marital status, family size, gender, occupation, and educational background
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(Lawson 1994; Mieczkowski 1990). Zimmerman (1982) adds to this perspective by claiming there are three temporal dimensions or time horizons that could affect tourism patterns. These include the general changes over time due to seasonal events and other specific events like wars and acts of terrorism (period effects), changes in family or destination tastes, and changes between successive generations known as the cohort effects. Some of these factors need to be considered. Family Lifecycle and Tourism One of the most important demographic variables influencing demand is age and the stage in the lifecycle. In fact, the age structure of the population and its changes are of vital interest to tourism and recreation planners (Mieczkowski 1990:157).
The family lifecycle is used to explain tourism patterns through life, starting when individuals are young and single and ending on the death of the last partner. This pattern depends not only on age but also on other factors such as marital status, family size, employment status, and discretionary income. Wells and Gubar (1966) pioneered family lifecycle theory. Theirs consists of nine stages: bachelor, newly married, full nest I (preschool children), full nest II (school-age children), full nest III (older/nondependent children), empty nest I (still working), empty nest II (retired), solitary survivor in labor force, and solitary survivor retired. The bachelor and newly married groups are both children free, with the latter groups being financially better off. Both these groups prefer a good social life, do not like being “tied down” and prefer to purchase basic durables, cars, and vacations. The full nest groups, in particular groups I and II, have dependent children and mortgages. Hence they are in a worse financial position than earlier groups. Full nest III and empty nest I are in the best financial positions, because they have no dependent children and few financial debts. They have a stable and a relatively high level of income. They are able to purchase vacations and other luxury items. Further, the empty nest III consists of retired people who are using their past savings to help meet their current expenses (dissaving). They are usually concerned about their health. Lawson (1991) suggests that the tourism industry does not adequately distinguish between family lifecycle and age when marketing destinations. This may be the case in the long-term, but in the short to medium-term, one would expect age and the family lifecycle to be closely correlated. Hence, it may not be as necessary to distinguish between them if only broad patterns are being considered. For instance, if a relatively large number of children (under 15) are going to a destination, they are most likely to accompany a family, which would be equivalent to full nest I and II. Similarly, if individuals over the age of 55 are taking vacations, it can be safely assumed that they mostly belong to empty nest categories. Of course there are exceptions to these relationships. Wells and Gubar’s (1966) theory is based on a traditional or nuclear family (couple family with dependent children). Recent studies that have
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used this definition have, however, had classification problems when attempting to classify all cases into one of their stages. For example, Lawson (1991) found in a study on tourists to New Zealand that 40% of the cases could not be classified into any of Wells and Gubar’s (1966) categories. In Australia, the number of traditional or nuclear families decreased from 45.7 to 40.8% (expressed as a percentage of all families) in the ten-year period ending in 1997. The percentage of single-parent families and those without dependent children (this includes childless families and those with independent children), on the other hand, has increased from 8.0 to 10.4% and 30.7 to 33.6%, respectively, during the same period (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1998b) Similar patterns are evident in other countries. Hence attempts have been made to modernize the family lifecycle theory (Bojanic 1992; Gilly and Enis 1981; Murphy and Staples 1979; Oppermann 1995b; Zimmerman 1982). All modernized versions include extra stages for single-parents (divorced/separated) and middle-aged couples without children. Oppermann (1995b) includes an extra classification for single persons, aged 15 to 25 still dependent on their parents. These individuals include those still living at home and taking vacations with their parents. These modernized versions reduce the classification problem quite significantly. These changes are relevant to today’s world and will affect tourism lifecycle patterns. For instance, a single person with children will be less likely to tour overseas compared to a middle-aged couple without children. This is because the single-parent family will have less discretionary income at their disposal. If anything, however, this “modern” pattern may reinforce the bimodal pattern for holidays as observed by Becker (1992). A study that allows the relationships between a range of family types and each purpose of tourism would be ideal. Unfortunately, data of this type are not available in Australia and would be quite expensive and time consuming to compile. Furthermore, child-bearing and rearing of children out of wedlock follows a similar age pattern and has similar social and economic consequences to that of traditional families as envisaged by Wells and Gubar (1966). For these reasons, traditional families closely following their theory are mostly assumed. While age-related cycles seem (as far as traveling for leisure is concerned) to be related to the traditional type as described by Wells and Gubar, they do not depend entirely on these cycles. For instance, single-parent families may be just as tied down (maybe even more so) by children and financial constraints, as nuclear parents in the fullnest II stage. This may similarly restrict their leisure trips or restrict it even more than for nuclear families for the corresponding ages involved. Long-term changes in the age structure of a population can provide useful information to market researchers. A particular part of a cohort, such as size or historic background, can be useful in determining current trends as well as predicting future changes. For example, the “baby boomers” are aged 35 to 55 years now and make up a large share
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of the total population. Pairing this with the low mortality rates and declining birth rates of modern times would mean that in the next 20 to 30 years a larger proportion of the total population would be seniors. This will significantly affect future tourism patterns. Other population cohorts in Australia contain large numbers of recent immigrants from the United Kingdom, Ireland, and some other parts of Europe. Nowadays, there has been an increase in immigration from Asia and the Middle East (Tisdell 1998). These may affect current and future outbound tourism, especially for the purpose of visiting friends and relatives. Empirical Studies and Data Sources Usually lifecycle effects are empirically determined through crosssectional analyses, using surveys conducted by country tourism councils and the researchers themselves. Generally, studies have concluded that there are systematic changes in the tourism patterns of individuals throughout their life. These changes are reported with respect to various demographic and socioeconomic factors (Bojanic 1992; Lawson 1991; Rapoport and Rapoport 1975; Zimmerman 1982) and the dominant decision-maker (male or female) in the family (Cosenza and Davis 1981; Fodness 1992). Becker (1992) and Oppermann (1995a) both complete longitudinal analyses enabling the cohort and period effects to be examined. A longitudinal analysis views the demand for tourism as being generated by broad events and lifecycles. These authors relied on single surveys requesting information from individuals about all trips they have undertaken in their lifespans. Becker (1992) studies German patterns and finds that the family lifecycle is bimodal with a decline in the distance traveled in the 34–48 year group, followed by slight recovery and then a continuing decline as a person gets older. Lawson (1991) supports this conclusion. Oppermann (1995a) feels that tourism destinations and, thus, experiences gathered by the younger generations of today are different from those of previous generations. Consequently, as today’s younger generations become older, they may display different patterns than today’s older generations. In other words, shifts in lifecycle functions may occur in the long-term. While such changes can occur, the fundamental patterns are less likely to alter, or can be expected to change very slowly. The need for this research became apparent because of an earlier study (Collins and Tisdell 2000), which finds that total Australian outbound tourism does not conform to Becker’s (1992) hypothesis. This suggests that the age-related pattern might vary by purpose and that while Becker’s hypothesis might hold for holiday tourism, it clearly does not hold for some other purposes. Using 1991–94 Australian data, Collins and Tisdell (2000) conclude that there is a distinct pattern of a lifecycle function, which increases with age, peaks for the 45–54 age group, and then steadily declines afterwards. Updating the pattern for 1998 (the short-term departures from Australia are expressed as a percentage of the Australian population for each group), a similar pattern
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is found (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1994, 1998a). This unimodal (single peak) function for the general pattern contrasts with the bimodal type of function Becker (1992) and Lawson (1991) predict on the basis of their longitudinal analyses. The reason for this unimodal pattern may be that Becker and Lawsons’ theories primarily consider the demand for holiday tourism. However, as already discussed, Australians do not merely go overseas for this purpose. Travel for business, conferences, and education can also be important. The trend for business, for example, may offset the bimodal pattern that could occur for holiday tourism. An aim of this article is to provide an independent test of the lifecycle patterns predicted and observed by Becker and Lawson. Trips overseas by Australians are classified into groups based on the purpose of tourism enabling the age-related lifecycles of each group to be examined separately. This classification can be used not only to see if a bimodal pattern exists in holiday tourism, but also to determine what patterns exist for other purposes. Yet no comparative studies of changing age-related trip frequencies according to purpose could be found. Such relationships are of interest from a general theoretical viewpoint, as well as business applications, and provide systematic information about the nature of outbound tourism. Unpublished tourism data purchased by the authors from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for 1998 are used. The data are based on the departure cards filled out by short-term Australian residents departing for less than 12 months. The data collected includes age, country of intended stay, and main purpose of the journey. The data are split into seven age groups: under 15, 15–24, 25–34, 35–44, 45–54, 55–64, and 65 and over, and each age group is split into seven reasons for travel: visiting friends and relatives, holiday, convention/conference, business, employment, education, and other (these are mutually exclusive groups). The data acquired are not raw, are displayed in frequency tables, and represent the full population of short-term outbound tourism. For these reasons, inferential statistical tests are irrelevant in many cases. Therefore, this study used mainly descriptive statistics. As already mentioned, 40.8% of families in Australia are of the nuclear type. In 1998, the median age of men at first marriage was 27.9 and for women 26.2 years. The median age of the mother at first birth was 27.3 (1997 statistic), and 79.2% of births were to mothers aged between 20 and 35 (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2000). Combining these social statistics with those given earlier, Wells and Gubar’s (1966) family lifecycle stages broadly mirror these age groups. The under 15 age category has no defined stage; 15–24 is equivalent to the bachelor and newly married groups; 25–34, the newly married and full nest I groups; 35–44, the full nest I and full nest II groups; 45–54, the full nest III and empty nest I groups; 55–64 empty nest I, empty nest II, and solitary survivor (working), and 65 and over are equivalent to the empty nest II and solitary survivor (retired) groups. To obtain relative frequencies of overseas patterns of Australian residents by age groups and tourism purpose, the total population for each age group
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Table 1. Short-term Departures from Australia by Age in 1998 Age Group
Total Departures
Relative to the Growth Rate Population (%) (%)
Under 15 15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 54–64 Over 65
305540 354790 620960 653500 659000 356060 211180
7.8 13.3 21.5 22.5 26.7 22.0 9.2
70.1 62.4 4.8 18.5 ⫺17.5 ⫺58.0
is required (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1998a). The estimated resident populations for June 1998 are used, allowing relative frequencies to be graphed as a function of age for all outbound residents. Study Results Before presenting and analyzing the data, the general lifecycle in relation to age will be closely examined. Table 1 (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1998a) summarizes the percentage of short-term departures in each group. The largest relative percentage is in the 45–54 year old age group with 26.7% of Australians in that group taking a journey overseas for a short period in 1998. They also accounted for the largest number of departures in the same year. The second largest relative proportion is for the 35–44 group (22.5%), closely followed by the 55–64 and 25–34 groups, with 22.0 and 21.5% of individuals in these groups going overseas. The rates of change between successive groups, calculated using the relative departures, are also displayed in Table 1. Observing these, there are comparatively large changes in short-term departures from under 15 to the 15–24 group and then from the 15–24 to 25–34 groups. The rate of change then declines for the 35–44 group, increases again for the 45–54 group and then drops off very quickly, decreasing at an increasing rate. Despite the presence of a unimodal pattern, the results support the general view of Becker (1992) and Lawson (1991). That is the relative frequency of more distant tourism (in this case overseas) rises rapidly in the teenage years until the early 30s and declines from about 55 years onwards. At the same time, in terms of proportions of total departures, the 55–64 year old market exceeds the young 15–24 year old market and it is likely that expenditure per capita in the former group will exceed that in the latter. Even though there is not a decrease in overseas visits for the 35–44 group, there is an obvious decline in the rate of change of such tourism. In Table 2, each purpose of tourism is expressed as a percentage of total short-term departures by age groups, so the general composition of Australian outbound tourism can be examined. Total departures by
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Table 2. Relationship between Purpose for Travel and Age, Australia, 1998a Purpose of Travel
Age Group (years)
Under 15 15–24
Holiday 52.9 VFR 38.5 Business 0 Convention/ 0 Conference Employment 0 Education 1.8 Other 6.8 100% a
% of total short– term departures
25–34
35–44
45–54
55–64
65 and over
60.1 22.2 3.4 1.3
50.1 19.0 17.3 3.4
39.2 20.4 25.2 5.6
41.8 20.6 23.6 5.3
46.2 26.6 15.6 4.3
53.1 35.9 3.6 1.6
47.3 23.8 15.9 3.7
2.4 5.0 5.6 100%
4.0 1.1 5.2 100%
3.6 0.6 5.5 100%
2.8 0.8 5.0 100%
1.4 0.5 5.4 100%
0.4 0.3 5.0 100%
2.6 1.3 5.4 100%
Chi-squared=347378; df=32; p=0.000.
purpose are also specified. Generally, holidays are the most frequent cause for going overseas for a short period, making up about 47.3% of short-term departures, more than double the percentage for other specific purposes. The next most frequent purpose is to visit friends and relatives, making up about 23.8%, followed by business, which accounts for about 15.9% of overseas trips. The main purpose for the other 13% of overseas trips are for convention and conference (3.7%), employment (2.6%), education (1.3%) and other reasons or not stated (5.4%). However, large variations occur in the composition of outbound visits by purpose as age varies. Table 2 also shows the conditional probabilities (expressed as a percentage) for each purpose given that the tourist is from a particular age group. Those with a conditional probability greater than that for total departures are highlighted in bold. The results for the chisquared test of independence are reported at the foot of Table 2. This makes it possible to test whether a relationship exists between the age groups and the various purposes for tourism. The chi-squared test for independence strongly rejects the null hypothesis that the age group and the purpose for tourism are independent. However, the use of such a test is of limited relevance when the data purports to be a population, as is the case here. As Table 2 shows, holidays account for the largest proportion of all groups, even though it is less than average for the 35 to 64 category. Visiting friends and relatives is the second most frequent cause for travel for all groups except for individuals in the 35 to 54 bracket, even though it is less than its average for ages 15 to 54. Overall business is the third most common cause, but for those between 35 and 54 it is the second most common. All other categories make up a relatively small proportion of departures in these groups, but a few interesting comparisons can be made. A journey abroad for education is higher
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Figure 1. Age-related Tourism Cycles for Business Tourism and to Attend a Convention
than the average up to 24, for employment between 25 to 54, and for those attending convention and conferences between the ages 35 to 64. Figures 1 to 3 (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1998a) show the lifecycle patterns for the various purposes for tourism. For each category, the short-term departures are expressed as a percentage of the total population for each group (rather than the total departures for each group as in Table 2). This enables comparisons of patterns among groups to be made as well as comparisons to be made among tourism patterns (the exact values are of little interest, just the relative shapes of the cycles). Hypothesis tests to examine whether significant differences exist between age groups would be beneficial, but are not possible due to the data limitations as discussed earlier. Conventions, conferences, and business visits (Figure 1) display almost identical patterns in terms of shape. They both start increasing steadily from about 15–24 years of age, slow down at the 35–44 age group, before peaking at the 45–54 age group. There is an observable decrease in these types after that. Both patterns are slightly skewed to the left, with most of the activity occurring in the middle-age groups.
Figure 2. Age-related Tourism Cycles for Holidays and to Visit Friends and Relatives
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Figure 3. Age-related Tourism Cycles for Employment and Education Purposes
The relationship between these series is not surprising given that many journeys for conventions and conferences are business or professionally related. Figure 2 displays the pattern for holidays. The pattern is bimodal (two peaks), supporting Becker’s (1992) and Lawson’s (1991) hypothesis. There is an increase in the relative frequency of holiday tourism up to the 25–34 age group. It then decreases for the 35–45 group (comparable to Becker’s decline at 34–48), before increasing to an even higher peak for the 45–54 group. It declines quickly after that. It may at first glance seem rather surprising that going overseas to visit friends and relatives (Figure 2) displays a different pattern from that for holiday purposes. It is not bimodal and the pattern is skewed to the left, increasing steadily before peaking for the 55–64 group. It drops off rapidly after that. A journey overseas for educational purposes (Figure 3) is skewed to the opposite direction (right) from visiting friends and relatives, with the majority of individuals traveling for this purpose being in the younger age groups. The peak occurs for the 15–24 group. It drops off sharply after that, but there is a very small second peak in the 45– 54 year group. Employment travel (Figure 3) is almost symmetric, but has a different peak to business and convention or conference purposes. It peaks for the 25–34 group, decreases slightly, before a very quick decline takes place for the 55–64 group. Generally, all outbound patterns decline for the elderly, paralleling Becker’s and Lawson’s conclusions. Comparing these patterns to the unimodal general pattern for 1998, business and convention or conference tourism are the only ones that display a similar pattern. As suspected by Collins and Tisdell (2000), the bimodal pattern predicted from the theoretical and empirical work of Becker (1992) and Lawson (1991), is offset by business, convention and conference visits. The decline in rates of change in the general pattern at the 35–44 group further supports this. These conclusions allow modifications to be made to the lifecycle hypothesis, based on the purpose for tourism.
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Furthermore, notably visiting frends and relatives tourism does not reinforce the bimodal pattern for holidays. In fact, its pattern provides another offset to the bimodal holiday pattern as suggested by Becker and Lawson. Different Age-Related Tourism Functions It can be concluded from the above empirical results that age-related tourism patterns vary according to the purpose of tourism. The variations in these patterns may be explained by various sociological and economic theories. Possible explanations for each purpose should be considered. Business and Convention/Conference Tourism. The outbound pattern for business or to attend a convention or conference is slightly skewed to the left, with a decrease at retirement age. The increase begins when individuals enter the workforce and peaks for individuals in their late 30s or early 40s. In terms of Wells and Gubar’s (1966) family lifecycle theory, this peak occurs around the full nest group. Individuals in the full nest group are expected to have less discretionary expenditure, but this has little if any impact on people traveling for business or to attend a convention, or conference, since such tourism is usually financed by the individual’s business or workplace. The decline in business visits at 65 and over is expected, because by this stage most individuals have retired and there is less need for trips for this and related purposes. However, a decline occurs at pre-retirement for the 55–64 year group. This category will also consist of some retirees. However, the main reason is that overseas trips for business or conferences are a work-related investment, and employers require an adequate return on their investment (Hartley and Tisdell 1981). Prior to retirement, the time left to recoup this investment and obtain a return on it falls. Hence, employers may be less inclined to finance the overseas journeys of these employees. For similar reasons, the selfemployed may be less willing to finance their business trips. Thus, economic considerations may help to explain the fall off in relative frequency of employees traveling in the 55–64 year group, as well as early retirement. The fact that those of younger age take relatively fewer businessrelated trips than those of mature age may partly have an economic and a sociological basis. Younger persons in business may not yet have completely established their credentials, may still be learning about their business, and may not have reached senior positions in their workplace. Business trips by experienced senior personnel could be more effective in providing higher economic returns to the business than such trips by “juniors”. Furthermore, senior personnel are usually in a better position to judge business opportunities than the junior. Senior employees are in a superior position to implement decisions made on business trips. Therefore, any information gained by them as a result of an overseas visit is more likely to be widely utilized by the business because they usually have more subordinates than juniors.
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In addition, up to a point, overseas business-related trips may be considered to be rewards or “perks”. Those higher in the business hierarchy may try to appropriate a larger share of such trips for themselves. Thus, there are several contributory factors to the pattern of agerelated business tourism. In the long-term, these overall patterns of business tourism are not expected to change dramatically. Nevertheless, some variations in these lifecycles may occur if the proportion of females in the workforce continues to escalate. Furthermore, the age for retirement is altering and good health is being maintained later in life. Therefore future lifecycles may vary somewhat from the present trends. Holiday Tourism. Tourism for holiday purposes follows a distinct bimodal pattern as Becker (1992) found in his German study. The first peak parallels Wells and Gubar’s (1966) bachelor and newly married categories. Individuals in these categories are young and adventurous with no dependent children. Their disposable incomes are likely to be spent on luxuries such as holidays. The dip in holiday tourism occurs for individuals when they are married, have dependent children, and their net savings position is at its lowest due to a housing mortgage and other family-related financial commitments. Single-parents (now more common) also experience a similar and probably deeper financial dip at about the same age. The second peak for tourism is in the empty nest period, where individuals enjoy a positive net financial position and have no dependent children. This peak is higher than the first one, as most individuals have a well-established financial position, including the accumulation of assets and savings. As persons grow older, even though they have more time available for tourism and other activities, there is a decline (and possibly distance) in their number of journeys due to increasing health concerns and dissaving; that is, the running down of previously accumulated assets in order to meet personal needs (Ando and Modigliani 1963; Modigliani 1986). In the long-term, as birth and marriage rates decline, the dip in tourism for the full nest group may become less marked, with the patterns becoming closer to unimodal. Past studies have concluded that the actual distance traveled for a holiday is also likely to decline with age. However, Collins and Tisdell (2000) show this is not so for Australian outbound tourists. For the age group 55 and over, the most popular countries/regions are European countries, in particular the United Kingdom and Ireland. In 1998, 30.2% of 55–64 year olds and 32.8% of individuals aged 65 and over undertook a journey to Europe. The next most popular destination country was New Zealand with 14.2 and 14.6% in the respective groups, followed by the United States with 8.6 and 8.8%. Elderly outbound tourists seem to prefer Western-type cultures, which they consider to be politically stable and technologically and socially advanced, and do not mind traveling the extra distance to visit countries with these cultures.
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Tourism to Visit Friends and Relatives. This tourism type has a definite skew to the left with the majority of individuals going abroad for this purpose in the older groups, peaking at 55–64 years. As mentioned earlier, past immigration to Australia is likely to have a considerable impact on this group. Migrants and their families often return to their country of origin to visit friends and relatives or to seek information on their heritage. Between 1961 and 1980, more than 60% of the total migration to Australia was from Europe. In 1998, 43.5% of individuals aged over 55 who departed from Australia for a short-term trip, went to Europe to visit friends and relatives. Thus, elderly Australians not only prefer Western countries such as those in Europe, as already noted, but also because of their cultural and family ties with those countries. In the long-term, the pattern of this outbound tourism is not expected to change significantly. In recent times though, Asian and Middle Eastern migration to Australia has grown and European migration has shrunk relatively (Tisdell 1998). This may influence future visits to Asia and the Middle East by Australians for the purpose of visiting friends and relatives. Further relationships can be detected by considering the ratio of this type of outbound tourism as a function of age. It has already been established that for all groups, holidays are the most frequent overseas purpose for a short period. When the ratio for each group is considered, there is an increase in those visiting friends and relatives compared to those going on a holiday in some age groups. This is highest for the under 15 group (0.73:1) and for those aged 65 and over (0.68:1). It also shows a slight rise for the full nest, 35–44 years group (0.52:1). One might expect the ratio to be higher for one or more of the following reasons. The tourists may need special care or supervision or other personal assistance, which can be provided by friends or relatives. Second, the tourists and/or their immediate families may be relatively short of finance. Although not tested in this study for lack of data, it may be that single-parent families tend to have a higher relative frequency of visiting friends and relatives compared to nuclear families when the above three factors are considered. Usually it is less expensive to travel if one stays with friends or relatives. Financial considerations may be especially relevant to younger and older groups, but may also be an important factor for the full nest group and single-parents. Supervision and personal assistance may be particularly relevant to the under 15 age group and for some in the 65 and over group. Those in the full nest group and single-parents, if traveling with children, may also appreciate personal assistance from friends and relatives. The low ratio of visiting friends and relatives to holiday tourism in the 15–24 and 25–34 year groups is partially explained by observing the large number of Australians going to Indonesia for a holiday, relative to other destinations. In 1998, Indonesia was the most popular destination for the 15–24 year group and the second most popular for the 25–34 year group. This destination is relatively inexpensive due to such factors as a favorable exchange rate as well as the wide range of cheap packages available including accommodation, meals, and air-
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fares. This combined with the low discretionary income of individuals in these groups and their inclination to experiment with different cultures compared to older age groups (Collins and Tisdell 2000), may assist in explaining why Indonesia is popular in these groups. Now considering that over 90% of 15–24 year olds traveling to Indonesia go for a holiday (80% for 25–34 year olds) and only 2.3% go to visit friends and relatives, may explain the small VFR to holiday ratio in these groups. There may also be a tendency for individuals in this group to want to be independent of their relatives. To some extent, these factors help to explain changes in the ratio as a function of age. Educational Tourism. The skew for educational visits is to the right, with the majority of them being less than 25 years of age. The peak occurs for the 15–24 group and this includes individuals going abroad for secondary or college education. Many individuals would be studying full-time and generally be single with no children. This is considered to be the bachelor stage of the family lifecycle and usually individuals are financially dependent. This implies that financial backing is required through scholarships or grants or from their parents. After 24 years of age, there is a sharp decline in visits for educational purposes. However, a very small increase occurs for the 45–54 group. Factors like no dependent children and a good financial position, attributes of the full nest III and empty nest stages of the family lifecycle, might help explain the second peak. Because education is an investment and there may be disadvantages in delaying permanent employment to an older age, the peak in the younger age group can be readily explained. For example, human capital theory (Becker 1975; Blaug 1972; Mincer 1974; Psacharopoulos 1994; World Bank 1995) suggests that the lifetime return on investment in education is likely to be greater if made earlier in life. Furthermore, the importance of portsof-entry into employment for subsequent avenues of promotion, as well as the significance of on-the-job learning and training makes it important for youth not to unduly delay their entry into the workforce. Employment Tourism. This category displays another unique pattern. There is a relatively constant proportion of Australians leaving to work abroad for short periods between the ages of 25 and 54, even though this represents a heterogeneous range of people. Age restrictions (usually less than 30) are applicable when seeking working visas for many overseas countries if work is being sought, explaining why there is slightly more traveling for employment in the 25–34 group. The under 30 group are likely to be unsettled with fewer skills and those who have any higher level education would have received little if any benefits from their status through employment. Thus, a temporary move abroad for casual work may be a chosen option for financial reasons or to obtain experience and contacts. Globalization of the world economy has increased foreign direct investment allowing multinational firms to develop. These companies require the skill of individuals from all countries, so the company can develop its worldwide market (So¨ dersten and Read 1994). This helps
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to explain the relatively large number participating in employment tourism after 35 years of age. By this time, individuals become relatively familiar with their business, and their business abilities are likely to be well known. Hence they may be selected to work abroad in a multinational firm. The reasons for the decline in the number of individuals going abroad after 54 years of age may be similar to those for the decline in the business and convention or conference tourists of the same age.
CONCLUSION This study emphasizes the importance of specifying tourism cycles according to tourism purposes. The bimodal (double peaked) pattern of overseas tourism proposed by Becker (1992) and Lawson (1994) is only evident for outbound tourists for the purpose of holidays. From Australian data, it was found that strong and similar unimodal (single peaked) age-related functions exist for outbound business tourism and for attendance at conventions and conferences. Although the relative frequency of outbound visits to friends and relatives is unimodal (unlike that for holiday tourism) and that for education almost unimodal when related to age, these functions are skewed in opposite directions. In relation to age, outbound tourism for the purpose of shortterm employment is almost symmetric. Although tourism for the purpose of holidays, and to some extent for visiting friends and relatives, was linked to the family lifecycle, connection with the traditional family cycle is not an essential one. A dip in holiday tourism for single-parents with dependent children can, as was argued, be expected. This, however, is unlikely to occur for individual adults in the corresponding age groups without children. While the number of childless adults is increasing, this has not occurred to such an extent as to eliminate the holiday dip-effect for the 35–44 year old group. The dip-effect is, however, not present for other major purposes, although it is present for education, a minor purpose for tourism. Note that the duration of the holiday dip-effect could be reduced if the number of children in a family is reduced with similar spacing between children. The location of the dip can vary depending upon whether children are born to parents at a young or older age. Comparing the 90s to the 60s, Australian statistics show that “women are starting child-bearing later in life and are having fewer children” (Department of Family and Community Services 2000:2). Furthermore, according to this source, the average size of households has declined considerably. In 1961, there were 3.65 persons per household compared to 2.7 in 1996. While the lifecycle cross-sectional tourism functions specified here are likely to shift with the passing of time, for example due to economic variations, it is believed that they are likely to remain relatively stable in their general characteristics. In other words, the age groups at which they peak and the relative position of the age groups are unlikely to change substantially. However, some secular change is poss-
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ible as the structure of society and its demographics alter, as technology alters. But such changes are likely to be slow and may only bring about minor variations in the patterns already observed. In the four-year period from 1994 to 1998, there is a noticeable upward shift in all groups in the relative frequency with which Australians go overseas (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1994, 1998a). Nevertheless, while the outbound tourism function shifted upward, its broad pattern did not change. The reasons for such shifts are worthy of further investigation, as well as long-term variations in the pattern of age-related cycles. In 1998, males made 82% of outbound business trips and 67% of trips to attend a convention or conference. This may imply that these patterns may differ between male and females. For instance, the peak for females on business or attending a convention or conference may occur at an earlier age than for males. In other words, before they have children, or at a later age, that is after their children become independent. This is another area that needs to be investigated. It is discussed to some extent in Collins and Tisdell (forthcoming). The general patterns observed for Australia could be applicable to culturally similar countries such as Canada, New Zealand, and the United States. In fact, the general patterns of lifecycle tourism for holidays and business purposes are expected to apply to most countries. Studies linking the family lifecycle and tourism have mainly been concerned with holiday tourism. Many tourism sectors like transport and accommodation sometimes benefit more from business and workrelated tourists than those on a holiday, for example, in terms of expenditure. Thus, destinations which attract business and workrelated tourists need to be aware of such tourism lifecycles. For example, the types of facilities that attract such tourists are likely to depend on their age-distribution.왎 Acknowledgements—Thanks go to Clevo Wilson for his helpful comments and suggestions.
REFERENCES Ando, A., and F. Modigliani 1963 The “Life Cycle” Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests. American Economic Review 53:55–84. Australian Bureau of Statistics 1994 Overseas Arrivals and Departures Cat. No. 3402.0. Canberra: ABS. 1998a Australian Demographic Statistics Cat. No. 3101.0. Canberra: ABS. 1998b Australian Social Trends Cat. No. 4102.0. Canberra: ABS. 2000 Australian Social Trends Cat. No. 4102.0. Canberra: ABS. Becker, C. 1992 Lebenbslanges Urlaubsreiseverhalten: Erste Ergebnisse einer Pilotstudie. Materialien zur Fremdenverkehrgeographie 25:70–82. Becker, G. 1975 Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special References to Education. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research. Blaug, M. 1972 An Introduction to the Economics of Education. Harmondsworth: Penguin Books.
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Bojanic, D. 1992 A Look at a Modernised Family Life Cycle and Overseas Travel. Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing 1(1):61–79. Collins, D., and C. Tisdell 2000 Changing Travel Patterns with Age: Australian Evidence and the Need to Modify Current Theories. Australian Journal of Hospitality Management 7(1):15–25. forthcoming Gender Differences in Travel Life Cycles. Journal of Travel Research. Cosenza, R., and D. Davis 1981 Family Vacation Decision making over the Family Life Cycle: A Decision and Influence Structure Analysis. Journal of Travel Research 20(2):17–23. Department of Family and Community Services 2000 Australian Families: Circumstances and Trends. Research FaCS Sheet 6. Canberra: Department of Family and Community Services. Fodness, D. 1992 The Impact of Family Life Cycle on the Vacation Decision-making Process. Journal of Travel Research 31(2):8–13. Gilly, M., and B. Enis 1981 Recycling the Family Life Cycle: A Proposal for Redefinition. Advances in Consumer Research 9:271–276. Hartley, K., and C. Tisdell 1981 Micro-Economic Policy. Chichester: Wiley. Lawson, R. 1991 Patterns of Tourist Expenditure and Types of Vacation Across the Family Life Cycle. Journal of Travel Research 29(4):12–18. 1994 Demographic Segmentation. In Tourism, Marketing and Management Handbook, S. Witt and L. Moutinho, eds., 2nd ed., pp. 311–315. New York: Prentice-Hall. Mieczkowski, Z. 1990 World Trends in Tourism and Recreation. In. American University Studies Series XXV Geography, Vol. 3. New York: Peter Lang. Mincer, J. 1974 Schooling, Experience, and Earnings. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research. Modigliani, F. 1986 Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations. American Economic Review 76(3):297–313. Murphy, P., and W. Staples 1979 A Modernized Family Life Cycle. Journal of Consumer Research 6:12–22. Oppermann, M. 1995a Travel Life Cycle. Annals of Tourism Research 22:535–552. 1995b Family Life Cycle and Cohort Effects: A Study of Travel Patterns of German Residents. Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing 4(1):23–44. Psacharopoulos, G. 1994 Returns to Investment in Education: A Global Update. World Development 22:1325–1343. Rapoport, R., and R. Rapoport 1975 Leisure and the Family Life Cycle. London: Routledge. So¨ dersten, B., and G. Read 1994 International Economics, Vol. 3. London: Macmillan. Tisdell, C. 1998 Migration to Australia with Particular Reference to Asian Migration. In International Migration in Southeast Asia: Trends, Consequences, Issues and Policy Measures, C. Firdausy, ed., pp. 45–71. Jakarta: Toyota Foundation and Indonesian Institute of Sciences. Wells, W., and G. Gubar 1966 The Life Cycle Concept in Marketing Research. Journal of Marketing Research 3:355–363. World Bank
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1995 Priorities and Strategies for Education A World Bank Review. Washington DC: World Bank. Zimmerman, C. 1982 The Life Cycle Concept as a Tool for Travel Research. Transportation 11:51–69.
Submitted 3 May 2000. Resubmitted 18 November 2000. Resubmitted 21 April 2001. Accepted 30 May 2001. Final Version 13 August 2001. Refereed anonymously. Coordinating Editor: Muzzo Uysal
Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 801–818, 2002 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved Printed in Great Britain 0160-7383/02/$22.00
PII: S0160-7383(01)00081-0
AGE-RELATED LIFECYCLES Purpose Variations Darrian Collins Clem Tisdell The University of Queensland, Australia Abstract: By describing and discussing Australian data on outbound tourism, this paper investigates the bimodal (double peaked) lifecycle pattern predicted and observed in the literature. These theories are primarily based on demand for holiday tourism, but tourists do not just go overseas for this purpose, with visiting friends and relatives, business, convention and conference, employment and educational tourism relevant purposes also. Trips overseas by Australians are split into these groups, enabling the age-related lifecycles of each to be examined separately. Unlike holiday tourism, all other purposes are unimodal, although they vary with respect to the age groups at which they peak and their relative positions. Keywords: lifecycle, purpose, age-related functions, Australia, outbound. 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Re´sume´: Cet article e´tudie, en de´crivant et discutant des donne´es australiennes au sujet du tourisme sortant, le mode`le bimodal (a` deux apoge´es) qui est pre´vu et observe´ dans la litte´rature. Ces the´ories sont base´es surtout sur la demande pour le tourisme de vacances. Mais les touristes vont a` l’e´tranger non seulement pour les vacances mais aussi pour voir des amis et de la famille; pour le commerce, des congre`s et des confe´rences; et pour travailler ou e´tudier. Les voyages a` l’e´tranger par des Australiens se partagent entre ces six groupes, ` la diffe´rence ce qui permet d’examiner se´pare´ment les cycles de vie lie´s a` l’aˆge de chacun. A du tourisme de vacances, toutes les autres raisons sont unimodales, quoiqu’elles varient selon les groupes d’aˆge auxquels elles atteignent leur maximum et leur position relative. Motscle´s: cycle de vie, intention, fonction lie´e a` l’aˆge, Australie, sortant. 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
INTRODUCTION Becker (1992) and Lawson (1991) were probably the first scholars to argue that the distances traveled by tourists vary systematically with their age. This relationship is influenced to some extent by the family lifecycle. Oppermann (1995a) further explored these relationships. However, in developing their hypothesis, these authors concentrate only on tourism for holiday vaction purposes and not surprisingly suggest that such a lifecycle as a function of age is bimodal. In doing so, they ignore the fact that a significant proportion of tourism occurs for
Darrian Collins is Lecturer in the School of Economics, The University of Queensland (Brisbane, 4072, Australia. Email
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purposes other than a holiday, and that for some, the age-related tourism pattern is not bimodal. The main contention of this article is that it is important to specify age-related lifecycles by tourism purpose. For some of these, such as business, a bimodal cycle does not occur—in fact, a unimodal relationship is present. A study of age-related overseas tourism patterns of Australian residents by Collins and Tisdell (2000) suggested that the bimodal lifecycle hypothesis of Becker (1992) and Lawson (1991) may need to be modified or qualified. In the 1991–94 data, no evidence is found of a bimodal (double peaked) outbound pattern when total overseas departures of Australian residents are examined. It was speculated that this might be due to reasons other than holidays, such as business tourism. Since data for Australian outbound tourists were unavailable at the time of the earlier study, this hypothesis could not be examined. Data have now come to hand enabling this hypothesis to be tested. These data also allow cross-sectioned cycles to be specified for different groups. These cycles are found to vary considerably with the purpose of going overseas. Existing lifecycle hypotheses are modified in this article. This is done by observing the relative frequency of outbound tourists, each expressed as a function of age. In the short to medium-term, age and the family lifecycle are highly correlated. Consequently, age can be used to speculate about the connections between family lifecycle and the age-related tourism functions. The purposes considered are holidays, visiting friends and relatives, business, convention or conference, employment, and education. This paper briefly reviews existing hypotheses about age-related tourism lifecycles, outlines previous empirical results, reviews hypotheses about family lifecycles, and considers connections between these two types. It suggests that while the nature of age-related lifecycles is influenced by the traditional family lifecycle, it is not completely dependent on it. Australian data are then used to specify outbound age-related cycles. Using the chi-squared test of independence, these cycles are shown to differ considerably depending on the purpose of visit. AGE-RELATED LIFECYCLES AND PURPOSES Becker (1992) and Lawson (1991) observed that the lifecycle pattern for holiday tourism has two peaks (is bimodal). They found that the distance traveled declined in the 34–48 age group. In 1998, only about 47% of short-term outbound departures from Australia were for holiday purposes. The remainder included trips to visit friends and relatives (24%), business, employment, or to attend a convention or conference (22.2%), educational purposes (1.3%) and other unspecified reasons. Although individually these are smaller than the holiday market, in terms of the total number of tourists combined they are important, especially the first two components. It is commonly believed that the demand for tourism is affected by demographic and socioeconomic relationships such as age, marital status, family size, gender, occupation, and educational background
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(Lawson 1994; Mieczkowski 1990). Zimmerman (1982) adds to this perspective by claiming there are three temporal dimensions or time horizons that could affect tourism patterns. These include the general changes over time due to seasonal events and other specific events like wars and acts of terrorism (period effects), changes in family or destination tastes, and changes between successive generations known as the cohort effects. Some of these factors need to be considered. Family Lifecycle and Tourism One of the most important demographic variables influencing demand is age and the stage in the lifecycle. In fact, the age structure of the population and its changes are of vital interest to tourism and recreation planners (Mieczkowski 1990:157).
The family lifecycle is used to explain tourism patterns through life, starting when individuals are young and single and ending on the death of the last partner. This pattern depends not only on age but also on other factors such as marital status, family size, employment status, and discretionary income. Wells and Gubar (1966) pioneered family lifecycle theory. Theirs consists of nine stages: bachelor, newly married, full nest I (preschool children), full nest II (school-age children), full nest III (older/nondependent children), empty nest I (still working), empty nest II (retired), solitary survivor in labor force, and solitary survivor retired. The bachelor and newly married groups are both children free, with the latter groups being financially better off. Both these groups prefer a good social life, do not like being “tied down” and prefer to purchase basic durables, cars, and vacations. The full nest groups, in particular groups I and II, have dependent children and mortgages. Hence they are in a worse financial position than earlier groups. Full nest III and empty nest I are in the best financial positions, because they have no dependent children and few financial debts. They have a stable and a relatively high level of income. They are able to purchase vacations and other luxury items. Further, the empty nest III consists of retired people who are using their past savings to help meet their current expenses (dissaving). They are usually concerned about their health. Lawson (1991) suggests that the tourism industry does not adequately distinguish between family lifecycle and age when marketing destinations. This may be the case in the long-term, but in the short to medium-term, one would expect age and the family lifecycle to be closely correlated. Hence, it may not be as necessary to distinguish between them if only broad patterns are being considered. For instance, if a relatively large number of children (under 15) are going to a destination, they are most likely to accompany a family, which would be equivalent to full nest I and II. Similarly, if individuals over the age of 55 are taking vacations, it can be safely assumed that they mostly belong to empty nest categories. Of course there are exceptions to these relationships. Wells and Gubar’s (1966) theory is based on a traditional or nuclear family (couple family with dependent children). Recent studies that have
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used this definition have, however, had classification problems when attempting to classify all cases into one of their stages. For example, Lawson (1991) found in a study on tourists to New Zealand that 40% of the cases could not be classified into any of Wells and Gubar’s (1966) categories. In Australia, the number of traditional or nuclear families decreased from 45.7 to 40.8% (expressed as a percentage of all families) in the ten-year period ending in 1997. The percentage of single-parent families and those without dependent children (this includes childless families and those with independent children), on the other hand, has increased from 8.0 to 10.4% and 30.7 to 33.6%, respectively, during the same period (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1998b) Similar patterns are evident in other countries. Hence attempts have been made to modernize the family lifecycle theory (Bojanic 1992; Gilly and Enis 1981; Murphy and Staples 1979; Oppermann 1995b; Zimmerman 1982). All modernized versions include extra stages for single-parents (divorced/separated) and middle-aged couples without children. Oppermann (1995b) includes an extra classification for single persons, aged 15 to 25 still dependent on their parents. These individuals include those still living at home and taking vacations with their parents. These modernized versions reduce the classification problem quite significantly. These changes are relevant to today’s world and will affect tourism lifecycle patterns. For instance, a single person with children will be less likely to tour overseas compared to a middle-aged couple without children. This is because the single-parent family will have less discretionary income at their disposal. If anything, however, this “modern” pattern may reinforce the bimodal pattern for holidays as observed by Becker (1992). A study that allows the relationships between a range of family types and each purpose of tourism would be ideal. Unfortunately, data of this type are not available in Australia and would be quite expensive and time consuming to compile. Furthermore, child-bearing and rearing of children out of wedlock follows a similar age pattern and has similar social and economic consequences to that of traditional families as envisaged by Wells and Gubar (1966). For these reasons, traditional families closely following their theory are mostly assumed. While age-related cycles seem (as far as traveling for leisure is concerned) to be related to the traditional type as described by Wells and Gubar, they do not depend entirely on these cycles. For instance, single-parent families may be just as tied down (maybe even more so) by children and financial constraints, as nuclear parents in the fullnest II stage. This may similarly restrict their leisure trips or restrict it even more than for nuclear families for the corresponding ages involved. Long-term changes in the age structure of a population can provide useful information to market researchers. A particular part of a cohort, such as size or historic background, can be useful in determining current trends as well as predicting future changes. For example, the “baby boomers” are aged 35 to 55 years now and make up a large share
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of the total population. Pairing this with the low mortality rates and declining birth rates of modern times would mean that in the next 20 to 30 years a larger proportion of the total population would be seniors. This will significantly affect future tourism patterns. Other population cohorts in Australia contain large numbers of recent immigrants from the United Kingdom, Ireland, and some other parts of Europe. Nowadays, there has been an increase in immigration from Asia and the Middle East (Tisdell 1998). These may affect current and future outbound tourism, especially for the purpose of visiting friends and relatives. Empirical Studies and Data Sources Usually lifecycle effects are empirically determined through crosssectional analyses, using surveys conducted by country tourism councils and the researchers themselves. Generally, studies have concluded that there are systematic changes in the tourism patterns of individuals throughout their life. These changes are reported with respect to various demographic and socioeconomic factors (Bojanic 1992; Lawson 1991; Rapoport and Rapoport 1975; Zimmerman 1982) and the dominant decision-maker (male or female) in the family (Cosenza and Davis 1981; Fodness 1992). Becker (1992) and Oppermann (1995a) both complete longitudinal analyses enabling the cohort and period effects to be examined. A longitudinal analysis views the demand for tourism as being generated by broad events and lifecycles. These authors relied on single surveys requesting information from individuals about all trips they have undertaken in their lifespans. Becker (1992) studies German patterns and finds that the family lifecycle is bimodal with a decline in the distance traveled in the 34–48 year group, followed by slight recovery and then a continuing decline as a person gets older. Lawson (1991) supports this conclusion. Oppermann (1995a) feels that tourism destinations and, thus, experiences gathered by the younger generations of today are different from those of previous generations. Consequently, as today’s younger generations become older, they may display different patterns than today’s older generations. In other words, shifts in lifecycle functions may occur in the long-term. While such changes can occur, the fundamental patterns are less likely to alter, or can be expected to change very slowly. The need for this research became apparent because of an earlier study (Collins and Tisdell 2000), which finds that total Australian outbound tourism does not conform to Becker’s (1992) hypothesis. This suggests that the age-related pattern might vary by purpose and that while Becker’s hypothesis might hold for holiday tourism, it clearly does not hold for some other purposes. Using 1991–94 Australian data, Collins and Tisdell (2000) conclude that there is a distinct pattern of a lifecycle function, which increases with age, peaks for the 45–54 age group, and then steadily declines afterwards. Updating the pattern for 1998 (the short-term departures from Australia are expressed as a percentage of the Australian population for each group), a similar pattern
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is found (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1994, 1998a). This unimodal (single peak) function for the general pattern contrasts with the bimodal type of function Becker (1992) and Lawson (1991) predict on the basis of their longitudinal analyses. The reason for this unimodal pattern may be that Becker and Lawsons’ theories primarily consider the demand for holiday tourism. However, as already discussed, Australians do not merely go overseas for this purpose. Travel for business, conferences, and education can also be important. The trend for business, for example, may offset the bimodal pattern that could occur for holiday tourism. An aim of this article is to provide an independent test of the lifecycle patterns predicted and observed by Becker and Lawson. Trips overseas by Australians are classified into groups based on the purpose of tourism enabling the age-related lifecycles of each group to be examined separately. This classification can be used not only to see if a bimodal pattern exists in holiday tourism, but also to determine what patterns exist for other purposes. Yet no comparative studies of changing age-related trip frequencies according to purpose could be found. Such relationships are of interest from a general theoretical viewpoint, as well as business applications, and provide systematic information about the nature of outbound tourism. Unpublished tourism data purchased by the authors from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for 1998 are used. The data are based on the departure cards filled out by short-term Australian residents departing for less than 12 months. The data collected includes age, country of intended stay, and main purpose of the journey. The data are split into seven age groups: under 15, 15–24, 25–34, 35–44, 45–54, 55–64, and 65 and over, and each age group is split into seven reasons for travel: visiting friends and relatives, holiday, convention/conference, business, employment, education, and other (these are mutually exclusive groups). The data acquired are not raw, are displayed in frequency tables, and represent the full population of short-term outbound tourism. For these reasons, inferential statistical tests are irrelevant in many cases. Therefore, this study used mainly descriptive statistics. As already mentioned, 40.8% of families in Australia are of the nuclear type. In 1998, the median age of men at first marriage was 27.9 and for women 26.2 years. The median age of the mother at first birth was 27.3 (1997 statistic), and 79.2% of births were to mothers aged between 20 and 35 (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2000). Combining these social statistics with those given earlier, Wells and Gubar’s (1966) family lifecycle stages broadly mirror these age groups. The under 15 age category has no defined stage; 15–24 is equivalent to the bachelor and newly married groups; 25–34, the newly married and full nest I groups; 35–44, the full nest I and full nest II groups; 45–54, the full nest III and empty nest I groups; 55–64 empty nest I, empty nest II, and solitary survivor (working), and 65 and over are equivalent to the empty nest II and solitary survivor (retired) groups. To obtain relative frequencies of overseas patterns of Australian residents by age groups and tourism purpose, the total population for each age group
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Table 1. Short-term Departures from Australia by Age in 1998 Age Group
Total Departures
Relative to the Growth Rate Population (%) (%)
Under 15 15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 54–64 Over 65
305540 354790 620960 653500 659000 356060 211180
7.8 13.3 21.5 22.5 26.7 22.0 9.2
70.1 62.4 4.8 18.5 ⫺17.5 ⫺58.0
is required (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1998a). The estimated resident populations for June 1998 are used, allowing relative frequencies to be graphed as a function of age for all outbound residents. Study Results Before presenting and analyzing the data, the general lifecycle in relation to age will be closely examined. Table 1 (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1998a) summarizes the percentage of short-term departures in each group. The largest relative percentage is in the 45–54 year old age group with 26.7% of Australians in that group taking a journey overseas for a short period in 1998. They also accounted for the largest number of departures in the same year. The second largest relative proportion is for the 35–44 group (22.5%), closely followed by the 55–64 and 25–34 groups, with 22.0 and 21.5% of individuals in these groups going overseas. The rates of change between successive groups, calculated using the relative departures, are also displayed in Table 1. Observing these, there are comparatively large changes in short-term departures from under 15 to the 15–24 group and then from the 15–24 to 25–34 groups. The rate of change then declines for the 35–44 group, increases again for the 45–54 group and then drops off very quickly, decreasing at an increasing rate. Despite the presence of a unimodal pattern, the results support the general view of Becker (1992) and Lawson (1991). That is the relative frequency of more distant tourism (in this case overseas) rises rapidly in the teenage years until the early 30s and declines from about 55 years onwards. At the same time, in terms of proportions of total departures, the 55–64 year old market exceeds the young 15–24 year old market and it is likely that expenditure per capita in the former group will exceed that in the latter. Even though there is not a decrease in overseas visits for the 35–44 group, there is an obvious decline in the rate of change of such tourism. In Table 2, each purpose of tourism is expressed as a percentage of total short-term departures by age groups, so the general composition of Australian outbound tourism can be examined. Total departures by
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Table 2. Relationship between Purpose for Travel and Age, Australia, 1998a Purpose of Travel
Age Group (years)
Under 15 15–24
Holiday 52.9 VFR 38.5 Business 0 Convention/ 0 Conference Employment 0 Education 1.8 Other 6.8 100% a
% of total short– term departures
25–34
35–44
45–54
55–64
65 and over
60.1 22.2 3.4 1.3
50.1 19.0 17.3 3.4
39.2 20.4 25.2 5.6
41.8 20.6 23.6 5.3
46.2 26.6 15.6 4.3
53.1 35.9 3.6 1.6
47.3 23.8 15.9 3.7
2.4 5.0 5.6 100%
4.0 1.1 5.2 100%
3.6 0.6 5.5 100%
2.8 0.8 5.0 100%
1.4 0.5 5.4 100%
0.4 0.3 5.0 100%
2.6 1.3 5.4 100%
Chi-squared=347378; df=32; p=0.000.
purpose are also specified. Generally, holidays are the most frequent cause for going overseas for a short period, making up about 47.3% of short-term departures, more than double the percentage for other specific purposes. The next most frequent purpose is to visit friends and relatives, making up about 23.8%, followed by business, which accounts for about 15.9% of overseas trips. The main purpose for the other 13% of overseas trips are for convention and conference (3.7%), employment (2.6%), education (1.3%) and other reasons or not stated (5.4%). However, large variations occur in the composition of outbound visits by purpose as age varies. Table 2 also shows the conditional probabilities (expressed as a percentage) for each purpose given that the tourist is from a particular age group. Those with a conditional probability greater than that for total departures are highlighted in bold. The results for the chisquared test of independence are reported at the foot of Table 2. This makes it possible to test whether a relationship exists between the age groups and the various purposes for tourism. The chi-squared test for independence strongly rejects the null hypothesis that the age group and the purpose for tourism are independent. However, the use of such a test is of limited relevance when the data purports to be a population, as is the case here. As Table 2 shows, holidays account for the largest proportion of all groups, even though it is less than average for the 35 to 64 category. Visiting friends and relatives is the second most frequent cause for travel for all groups except for individuals in the 35 to 54 bracket, even though it is less than its average for ages 15 to 54. Overall business is the third most common cause, but for those between 35 and 54 it is the second most common. All other categories make up a relatively small proportion of departures in these groups, but a few interesting comparisons can be made. A journey abroad for education is higher
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Figure 1. Age-related Tourism Cycles for Business Tourism and to Attend a Convention
than the average up to 24, for employment between 25 to 54, and for those attending convention and conferences between the ages 35 to 64. Figures 1 to 3 (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1998a) show the lifecycle patterns for the various purposes for tourism. For each category, the short-term departures are expressed as a percentage of the total population for each group (rather than the total departures for each group as in Table 2). This enables comparisons of patterns among groups to be made as well as comparisons to be made among tourism patterns (the exact values are of little interest, just the relative shapes of the cycles). Hypothesis tests to examine whether significant differences exist between age groups would be beneficial, but are not possible due to the data limitations as discussed earlier. Conventions, conferences, and business visits (Figure 1) display almost identical patterns in terms of shape. They both start increasing steadily from about 15–24 years of age, slow down at the 35–44 age group, before peaking at the 45–54 age group. There is an observable decrease in these types after that. Both patterns are slightly skewed to the left, with most of the activity occurring in the middle-age groups.
Figure 2. Age-related Tourism Cycles for Holidays and to Visit Friends and Relatives
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Figure 3. Age-related Tourism Cycles for Employment and Education Purposes
The relationship between these series is not surprising given that many journeys for conventions and conferences are business or professionally related. Figure 2 displays the pattern for holidays. The pattern is bimodal (two peaks), supporting Becker’s (1992) and Lawson’s (1991) hypothesis. There is an increase in the relative frequency of holiday tourism up to the 25–34 age group. It then decreases for the 35–45 group (comparable to Becker’s decline at 34–48), before increasing to an even higher peak for the 45–54 group. It declines quickly after that. It may at first glance seem rather surprising that going overseas to visit friends and relatives (Figure 2) displays a different pattern from that for holiday purposes. It is not bimodal and the pattern is skewed to the left, increasing steadily before peaking for the 55–64 group. It drops off rapidly after that. A journey overseas for educational purposes (Figure 3) is skewed to the opposite direction (right) from visiting friends and relatives, with the majority of individuals traveling for this purpose being in the younger age groups. The peak occurs for the 15–24 group. It drops off sharply after that, but there is a very small second peak in the 45– 54 year group. Employment travel (Figure 3) is almost symmetric, but has a different peak to business and convention or conference purposes. It peaks for the 25–34 group, decreases slightly, before a very quick decline takes place for the 55–64 group. Generally, all outbound patterns decline for the elderly, paralleling Becker’s and Lawson’s conclusions. Comparing these patterns to the unimodal general pattern for 1998, business and convention or conference tourism are the only ones that display a similar pattern. As suspected by Collins and Tisdell (2000), the bimodal pattern predicted from the theoretical and empirical work of Becker (1992) and Lawson (1991), is offset by business, convention and conference visits. The decline in rates of change in the general pattern at the 35–44 group further supports this. These conclusions allow modifications to be made to the lifecycle hypothesis, based on the purpose for tourism.
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Furthermore, notably visiting frends and relatives tourism does not reinforce the bimodal pattern for holidays. In fact, its pattern provides another offset to the bimodal holiday pattern as suggested by Becker and Lawson. Different Age-Related Tourism Functions It can be concluded from the above empirical results that age-related tourism patterns vary according to the purpose of tourism. The variations in these patterns may be explained by various sociological and economic theories. Possible explanations for each purpose should be considered. Business and Convention/Conference Tourism. The outbound pattern for business or to attend a convention or conference is slightly skewed to the left, with a decrease at retirement age. The increase begins when individuals enter the workforce and peaks for individuals in their late 30s or early 40s. In terms of Wells and Gubar’s (1966) family lifecycle theory, this peak occurs around the full nest group. Individuals in the full nest group are expected to have less discretionary expenditure, but this has little if any impact on people traveling for business or to attend a convention, or conference, since such tourism is usually financed by the individual’s business or workplace. The decline in business visits at 65 and over is expected, because by this stage most individuals have retired and there is less need for trips for this and related purposes. However, a decline occurs at pre-retirement for the 55–64 year group. This category will also consist of some retirees. However, the main reason is that overseas trips for business or conferences are a work-related investment, and employers require an adequate return on their investment (Hartley and Tisdell 1981). Prior to retirement, the time left to recoup this investment and obtain a return on it falls. Hence, employers may be less inclined to finance the overseas journeys of these employees. For similar reasons, the selfemployed may be less willing to finance their business trips. Thus, economic considerations may help to explain the fall off in relative frequency of employees traveling in the 55–64 year group, as well as early retirement. The fact that those of younger age take relatively fewer businessrelated trips than those of mature age may partly have an economic and a sociological basis. Younger persons in business may not yet have completely established their credentials, may still be learning about their business, and may not have reached senior positions in their workplace. Business trips by experienced senior personnel could be more effective in providing higher economic returns to the business than such trips by “juniors”. Furthermore, senior personnel are usually in a better position to judge business opportunities than the junior. Senior employees are in a superior position to implement decisions made on business trips. Therefore, any information gained by them as a result of an overseas visit is more likely to be widely utilized by the business because they usually have more subordinates than juniors.
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In addition, up to a point, overseas business-related trips may be considered to be rewards or “perks”. Those higher in the business hierarchy may try to appropriate a larger share of such trips for themselves. Thus, there are several contributory factors to the pattern of agerelated business tourism. In the long-term, these overall patterns of business tourism are not expected to change dramatically. Nevertheless, some variations in these lifecycles may occur if the proportion of females in the workforce continues to escalate. Furthermore, the age for retirement is altering and good health is being maintained later in life. Therefore future lifecycles may vary somewhat from the present trends. Holiday Tourism. Tourism for holiday purposes follows a distinct bimodal pattern as Becker (1992) found in his German study. The first peak parallels Wells and Gubar’s (1966) bachelor and newly married categories. Individuals in these categories are young and adventurous with no dependent children. Their disposable incomes are likely to be spent on luxuries such as holidays. The dip in holiday tourism occurs for individuals when they are married, have dependent children, and their net savings position is at its lowest due to a housing mortgage and other family-related financial commitments. Single-parents (now more common) also experience a similar and probably deeper financial dip at about the same age. The second peak for tourism is in the empty nest period, where individuals enjoy a positive net financial position and have no dependent children. This peak is higher than the first one, as most individuals have a well-established financial position, including the accumulation of assets and savings. As persons grow older, even though they have more time available for tourism and other activities, there is a decline (and possibly distance) in their number of journeys due to increasing health concerns and dissaving; that is, the running down of previously accumulated assets in order to meet personal needs (Ando and Modigliani 1963; Modigliani 1986). In the long-term, as birth and marriage rates decline, the dip in tourism for the full nest group may become less marked, with the patterns becoming closer to unimodal. Past studies have concluded that the actual distance traveled for a holiday is also likely to decline with age. However, Collins and Tisdell (2000) show this is not so for Australian outbound tourists. For the age group 55 and over, the most popular countries/regions are European countries, in particular the United Kingdom and Ireland. In 1998, 30.2% of 55–64 year olds and 32.8% of individuals aged 65 and over undertook a journey to Europe. The next most popular destination country was New Zealand with 14.2 and 14.6% in the respective groups, followed by the United States with 8.6 and 8.8%. Elderly outbound tourists seem to prefer Western-type cultures, which they consider to be politically stable and technologically and socially advanced, and do not mind traveling the extra distance to visit countries with these cultures.
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Tourism to Visit Friends and Relatives. This tourism type has a definite skew to the left with the majority of individuals going abroad for this purpose in the older groups, peaking at 55–64 years. As mentioned earlier, past immigration to Australia is likely to have a considerable impact on this group. Migrants and their families often return to their country of origin to visit friends and relatives or to seek information on their heritage. Between 1961 and 1980, more than 60% of the total migration to Australia was from Europe. In 1998, 43.5% of individuals aged over 55 who departed from Australia for a short-term trip, went to Europe to visit friends and relatives. Thus, elderly Australians not only prefer Western countries such as those in Europe, as already noted, but also because of their cultural and family ties with those countries. In the long-term, the pattern of this outbound tourism is not expected to change significantly. In recent times though, Asian and Middle Eastern migration to Australia has grown and European migration has shrunk relatively (Tisdell 1998). This may influence future visits to Asia and the Middle East by Australians for the purpose of visiting friends and relatives. Further relationships can be detected by considering the ratio of this type of outbound tourism as a function of age. It has already been established that for all groups, holidays are the most frequent overseas purpose for a short period. When the ratio for each group is considered, there is an increase in those visiting friends and relatives compared to those going on a holiday in some age groups. This is highest for the under 15 group (0.73:1) and for those aged 65 and over (0.68:1). It also shows a slight rise for the full nest, 35–44 years group (0.52:1). One might expect the ratio to be higher for one or more of the following reasons. The tourists may need special care or supervision or other personal assistance, which can be provided by friends or relatives. Second, the tourists and/or their immediate families may be relatively short of finance. Although not tested in this study for lack of data, it may be that single-parent families tend to have a higher relative frequency of visiting friends and relatives compared to nuclear families when the above three factors are considered. Usually it is less expensive to travel if one stays with friends or relatives. Financial considerations may be especially relevant to younger and older groups, but may also be an important factor for the full nest group and single-parents. Supervision and personal assistance may be particularly relevant to the under 15 age group and for some in the 65 and over group. Those in the full nest group and single-parents, if traveling with children, may also appreciate personal assistance from friends and relatives. The low ratio of visiting friends and relatives to holiday tourism in the 15–24 and 25–34 year groups is partially explained by observing the large number of Australians going to Indonesia for a holiday, relative to other destinations. In 1998, Indonesia was the most popular destination for the 15–24 year group and the second most popular for the 25–34 year group. This destination is relatively inexpensive due to such factors as a favorable exchange rate as well as the wide range of cheap packages available including accommodation, meals, and air-
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fares. This combined with the low discretionary income of individuals in these groups and their inclination to experiment with different cultures compared to older age groups (Collins and Tisdell 2000), may assist in explaining why Indonesia is popular in these groups. Now considering that over 90% of 15–24 year olds traveling to Indonesia go for a holiday (80% for 25–34 year olds) and only 2.3% go to visit friends and relatives, may explain the small VFR to holiday ratio in these groups. There may also be a tendency for individuals in this group to want to be independent of their relatives. To some extent, these factors help to explain changes in the ratio as a function of age. Educational Tourism. The skew for educational visits is to the right, with the majority of them being less than 25 years of age. The peak occurs for the 15–24 group and this includes individuals going abroad for secondary or college education. Many individuals would be studying full-time and generally be single with no children. This is considered to be the bachelor stage of the family lifecycle and usually individuals are financially dependent. This implies that financial backing is required through scholarships or grants or from their parents. After 24 years of age, there is a sharp decline in visits for educational purposes. However, a very small increase occurs for the 45–54 group. Factors like no dependent children and a good financial position, attributes of the full nest III and empty nest stages of the family lifecycle, might help explain the second peak. Because education is an investment and there may be disadvantages in delaying permanent employment to an older age, the peak in the younger age group can be readily explained. For example, human capital theory (Becker 1975; Blaug 1972; Mincer 1974; Psacharopoulos 1994; World Bank 1995) suggests that the lifetime return on investment in education is likely to be greater if made earlier in life. Furthermore, the importance of portsof-entry into employment for subsequent avenues of promotion, as well as the significance of on-the-job learning and training makes it important for youth not to unduly delay their entry into the workforce. Employment Tourism. This category displays another unique pattern. There is a relatively constant proportion of Australians leaving to work abroad for short periods between the ages of 25 and 54, even though this represents a heterogeneous range of people. Age restrictions (usually less than 30) are applicable when seeking working visas for many overseas countries if work is being sought, explaining why there is slightly more traveling for employment in the 25–34 group. The under 30 group are likely to be unsettled with fewer skills and those who have any higher level education would have received little if any benefits from their status through employment. Thus, a temporary move abroad for casual work may be a chosen option for financial reasons or to obtain experience and contacts. Globalization of the world economy has increased foreign direct investment allowing multinational firms to develop. These companies require the skill of individuals from all countries, so the company can develop its worldwide market (So¨ dersten and Read 1994). This helps
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to explain the relatively large number participating in employment tourism after 35 years of age. By this time, individuals become relatively familiar with their business, and their business abilities are likely to be well known. Hence they may be selected to work abroad in a multinational firm. The reasons for the decline in the number of individuals going abroad after 54 years of age may be similar to those for the decline in the business and convention or conference tourists of the same age.
CONCLUSION This study emphasizes the importance of specifying tourism cycles according to tourism purposes. The bimodal (double peaked) pattern of overseas tourism proposed by Becker (1992) and Lawson (1994) is only evident for outbound tourists for the purpose of holidays. From Australian data, it was found that strong and similar unimodal (single peaked) age-related functions exist for outbound business tourism and for attendance at conventions and conferences. Although the relative frequency of outbound visits to friends and relatives is unimodal (unlike that for holiday tourism) and that for education almost unimodal when related to age, these functions are skewed in opposite directions. In relation to age, outbound tourism for the purpose of shortterm employment is almost symmetric. Although tourism for the purpose of holidays, and to some extent for visiting friends and relatives, was linked to the family lifecycle, connection with the traditional family cycle is not an essential one. A dip in holiday tourism for single-parents with dependent children can, as was argued, be expected. This, however, is unlikely to occur for individual adults in the corresponding age groups without children. While the number of childless adults is increasing, this has not occurred to such an extent as to eliminate the holiday dip-effect for the 35–44 year old group. The dip-effect is, however, not present for other major purposes, although it is present for education, a minor purpose for tourism. Note that the duration of the holiday dip-effect could be reduced if the number of children in a family is reduced with similar spacing between children. The location of the dip can vary depending upon whether children are born to parents at a young or older age. Comparing the 90s to the 60s, Australian statistics show that “women are starting child-bearing later in life and are having fewer children” (Department of Family and Community Services 2000:2). Furthermore, according to this source, the average size of households has declined considerably. In 1961, there were 3.65 persons per household compared to 2.7 in 1996. While the lifecycle cross-sectional tourism functions specified here are likely to shift with the passing of time, for example due to economic variations, it is believed that they are likely to remain relatively stable in their general characteristics. In other words, the age groups at which they peak and the relative position of the age groups are unlikely to change substantially. However, some secular change is poss-
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ible as the structure of society and its demographics alter, as technology alters. But such changes are likely to be slow and may only bring about minor variations in the patterns already observed. In the four-year period from 1994 to 1998, there is a noticeable upward shift in all groups in the relative frequency with which Australians go overseas (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1994, 1998a). Nevertheless, while the outbound tourism function shifted upward, its broad pattern did not change. The reasons for such shifts are worthy of further investigation, as well as long-term variations in the pattern of age-related cycles. In 1998, males made 82% of outbound business trips and 67% of trips to attend a convention or conference. This may imply that these patterns may differ between male and females. For instance, the peak for females on business or attending a convention or conference may occur at an earlier age than for males. In other words, before they have children, or at a later age, that is after their children become independent. This is another area that needs to be investigated. It is discussed to some extent in Collins and Tisdell (forthcoming). The general patterns observed for Australia could be applicable to culturally similar countries such as Canada, New Zealand, and the United States. In fact, the general patterns of lifecycle tourism for holidays and business purposes are expected to apply to most countries. Studies linking the family lifecycle and tourism have mainly been concerned with holiday tourism. Many tourism sectors like transport and accommodation sometimes benefit more from business and workrelated tourists than those on a holiday, for example, in terms of expenditure. Thus, destinations which attract business and workrelated tourists need to be aware of such tourism lifecycles. For example, the types of facilities that attract such tourists are likely to depend on their age-distribution.왎 Acknowledgements—Thanks go to Clevo Wilson for his helpful comments and suggestions.
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Submitted 3 May 2000. Resubmitted 18 November 2000. Resubmitted 21 April 2001. Accepted 30 May 2001. Final Version 13 August 2001. Refereed anonymously. Coordinating Editor: Muzzo Uysal