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Agriculture: the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the United States
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS Agricultural Systems 81 (2004) 177–184 www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy
Book reviews Agriculture: the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the United States John M. Reilly (Editor). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2002, 136 pp. Price: $30 (paperback). ISBN 0-521-01628-2 This book, comprised of six parts of equal length, provides an overview of assessments of potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on United States agriculture, on its geographic variability as well as on sectors beyond agriculture. The book provides a synthesis report for non-specialists including resource and policy managers who are interested in an integrated approach to the problem of climate change and its impacts on agriculture. A clear and concise summary of climate change, climate variability and its consequences on American agriculture is provided at the beginning of the book. Chapter 1, which addresses the changing climate and changing agriculture, sets the tone by identifying key questions important to stakeholders interested in the climate change and agriculture arena using state-of-the-art climate models. This chapter begins by assuming that climate change is and will be the corner stone issue of past, present and future generations, and by acknowledging that agriculture in North America has changed rapidly and will continue to change in the near future. This chapter also provides an overview of American agriculture: its past and current conditions, and trends and forces that will shape our future, particularly the role of changing technologies such as biotechnology and precision agriculture that will improve the farm managerÕs ability to manage resources and adapt more rapidly to changing climatic and socioeconomic conditions. The second chapter, assessment approach: building on existing knowledge, provides a review and summary of previous assessments of climate change impacts on US agriculture, links between climate and agriculture, gaps in previous assessments, and approaches used in the current assessment. A clear and concise conclusion from each of several previous assessments provides non-specialists a summary of various assessments, and consensus among various studies. The approaches used in the present assessment, including strengths and deficiencies, are also presented providing the reader with knowledge of both the strengths and limitations of the methods used. Chapter 3, impacts of climate change on production agriculture and the US economy, discusses issues dealing with the effects of climate change on crop yields, irrigated crop water use, irrigation water supply, livestock performance and grazing/pasture supply, pesticide use and international trade. In this chapter an informed reader will sense the inadequacy of the models and assumptions that are made for the analysis.
178
Book reviews / Agricultural Systems 81 (2004) 177–184
Since crop yields are the result of many different factors, limitations of crop yields by extreme weather events are the most likely associated with climate change. Increased frequency and severity of storms, droughts, floods and frosts early or late season are thought to be associated with climate change. Chapter 4 discusses impacts of variability on major US agricultural crops by documenting numerous ways in which variability can affect crops and how it may change in the future. Chapter, agriculture and the environment: interactions with climate, examines various case studies, each of which answers specific issues such as agriculture and water quality, the Chesapeake Bay, interaction between climate change and pesticide use, intersectorial water reallocation using an example of the water scarce region around San Antonio, and interactions between climate and soil properties. The case studies presented here on environmental impacts are highly dependent on the specific character of climate change, providing an opportunity for various advocacy groups to respond to policies and advocate their cases. The final chapter provides conclusions and implications of climate change and agriculture. The review team acknowledges that they have only scratched the surface of understanding climate change and its likely impacts on agriculture. They conclude that climate change will be positive on the agriculture in the country as a whole. However, the southern portions of the US could suffer substantial losses due to more severe climate changes, including projected increases in climate variability, whereas northern regions may benefit. They conclude that the ability to foresee the future with great resolution is limited by the knowledge of how the whole system functions. For example, nearly all models require that certain assumptions be made based on unknown facts or relationships. When these are known, the investigators often make a ‘‘best guess’’ based on their knowledge of the system. When knowledge is limited and a ‘‘best guess’’ is wrong the simulation will likely be wrong. Validation with many scenarios is often not possible resulting in wrong conclusions. The book is appropriate for specialists including students and non-specialists. The policy makers, who need information based on scientific studies of a rigorous and quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on US agriculture over the 21st century, will particularly benefit from reading this book. It offers a clear direction and advice to politicians and the public on the consequences of climate change, directions for future research and implications for agricultural policy. K. Raja Reddy Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Mississippi State University 117 Dorman Hall Box 9555, Mississippi State Mississippi MS 39762, USA Tel.: +1-662-325-9463; fax: +1-662-325-9461 E-mail address: [email protected] doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2003.10.003
Book reviews Agriculture: the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the United States John M. Reilly (Editor). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2002, 136 pp. Price: $30 (paperback). ISBN 0-521-01628-2 This book, comprised of six parts of equal length, provides an overview of assessments of potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on United States agriculture, on its geographic variability as well as on sectors beyond agriculture. The book provides a synthesis report for non-specialists including resource and policy managers who are interested in an integrated approach to the problem of climate change and its impacts on agriculture. A clear and concise summary of climate change, climate variability and its consequences on American agriculture is provided at the beginning of the book. Chapter 1, which addresses the changing climate and changing agriculture, sets the tone by identifying key questions important to stakeholders interested in the climate change and agriculture arena using state-of-the-art climate models. This chapter begins by assuming that climate change is and will be the corner stone issue of past, present and future generations, and by acknowledging that agriculture in North America has changed rapidly and will continue to change in the near future. This chapter also provides an overview of American agriculture: its past and current conditions, and trends and forces that will shape our future, particularly the role of changing technologies such as biotechnology and precision agriculture that will improve the farm managerÕs ability to manage resources and adapt more rapidly to changing climatic and socioeconomic conditions. The second chapter, assessment approach: building on existing knowledge, provides a review and summary of previous assessments of climate change impacts on US agriculture, links between climate and agriculture, gaps in previous assessments, and approaches used in the current assessment. A clear and concise conclusion from each of several previous assessments provides non-specialists a summary of various assessments, and consensus among various studies. The approaches used in the present assessment, including strengths and deficiencies, are also presented providing the reader with knowledge of both the strengths and limitations of the methods used. Chapter 3, impacts of climate change on production agriculture and the US economy, discusses issues dealing with the effects of climate change on crop yields, irrigated crop water use, irrigation water supply, livestock performance and grazing/pasture supply, pesticide use and international trade. In this chapter an informed reader will sense the inadequacy of the models and assumptions that are made for the analysis.
178
Book reviews / Agricultural Systems 81 (2004) 177–184
Since crop yields are the result of many different factors, limitations of crop yields by extreme weather events are the most likely associated with climate change. Increased frequency and severity of storms, droughts, floods and frosts early or late season are thought to be associated with climate change. Chapter 4 discusses impacts of variability on major US agricultural crops by documenting numerous ways in which variability can affect crops and how it may change in the future. Chapter, agriculture and the environment: interactions with climate, examines various case studies, each of which answers specific issues such as agriculture and water quality, the Chesapeake Bay, interaction between climate change and pesticide use, intersectorial water reallocation using an example of the water scarce region around San Antonio, and interactions between climate and soil properties. The case studies presented here on environmental impacts are highly dependent on the specific character of climate change, providing an opportunity for various advocacy groups to respond to policies and advocate their cases. The final chapter provides conclusions and implications of climate change and agriculture. The review team acknowledges that they have only scratched the surface of understanding climate change and its likely impacts on agriculture. They conclude that climate change will be positive on the agriculture in the country as a whole. However, the southern portions of the US could suffer substantial losses due to more severe climate changes, including projected increases in climate variability, whereas northern regions may benefit. They conclude that the ability to foresee the future with great resolution is limited by the knowledge of how the whole system functions. For example, nearly all models require that certain assumptions be made based on unknown facts or relationships. When these are known, the investigators often make a ‘‘best guess’’ based on their knowledge of the system. When knowledge is limited and a ‘‘best guess’’ is wrong the simulation will likely be wrong. Validation with many scenarios is often not possible resulting in wrong conclusions. The book is appropriate for specialists including students and non-specialists. The policy makers, who need information based on scientific studies of a rigorous and quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on US agriculture over the 21st century, will particularly benefit from reading this book. It offers a clear direction and advice to politicians and the public on the consequences of climate change, directions for future research and implications for agricultural policy. K. Raja Reddy Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Mississippi State University 117 Dorman Hall Box 9555, Mississippi State Mississippi MS 39762, USA Tel.: +1-662-325-9463; fax: +1-662-325-9461 E-mail address: [email protected] doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2003.10.003