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AIDS - risk-analysis for life and disability insurance.
Abstracts and Reviews the one hand and competing risk models and their representation via latent life spans as statistical concepts on the other hand are equivalent notions. (Author) Keywords: Cumulative Partial Failure Rates, Survival Analyses. 053018 (MlO, M12) Volldynamische Bausparen (Absolutely dynamic German bauspar-system). Blatter der Deutsche Laux H., Ludwigsburg, Gesellschaft fur Versicherungsmathematik, Band Xu, Heft 4, oktober 1992, pp. 457-476. Based on earlier investigations, this paper considers such contracts of a building society which follow proven German models under the assumption that constant annual escalation of the face values, of the standard saving rates and of the minimum amortization rates in front of a systematically increasing volume of new business is allowed for. This test shows that increasing escalation (i.e. inflation) rates will substantially - lengthen the required savings periods and - shorten the amortization periods of the contract which is counterproductive in the light of the market experience in periods of high inflation. (Author) Keywords: Building Society Inflation Rates. 053019 (MlO, BlO) AIDS - Risikoanalyse ftir Lebens- und Berufsunfahigkeitsversicherung (AIDS - Risk-analysis for life and disability insurance). Weyer J., Holzwarth A., Kbln, Blatter der Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Versicherungsmathematik, Band Xx, Heft 4, oktober 1992, pp. 483-516. The article starts with a short epidemiological survey: The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported 206.392 cases of mll-blown AIDS in the USA at the end of 1991. The corresponding figures for Europe and Germany were 69.979 and 7.533 cases, respectively. Considering a large quantity of epidemiological data, the author presents a complex multigroup-model in the form of 1.650 coupled differential equations, modelling both the epidemiological dynamics of AIDS and the demographic development of the age structure of a population with age-specific risks. Compared with former investigations, these refined considerations lead to more favorable conclusions, as the model shows a wide variance in the age distribution of the AIDS cases. Compared with his former study the author observes an higher rate of case in ages 125 and 240, whereas the impact on the age-groups from 30 to 40 has decreased.
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This leads to a relatively favorable influence on the rating, as - in particular - the concentration of all AIDS cases in only a few age-groups would be disastrous for the rate structure. Nevertheless, the author expects heavy charges for life and disability insurance further on. If there is no striking success in the medical treatment of AIDS, he expects that massive adjustments of the rating structure will be necessary until the end of the century. In consequence of AIDS, the premium in term and life insurance could increase for some ages by 25%. (Authors) Keywords: AIDS, Multigroupmodel. 053020 (MlO, M30, BlO) Die Ableitung der neuen Pflegefallwahrscheinlichkeiten fur die Pflegerentenversicherung (The determination of new probabilities for the long-term care insurance). Grupp J., Richter H., Wolfsdorf K., Stuttgart, Hamburg, Blatter der Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Versicherungsmathematik, Band XX, Heft 4, oktober 1992, pp. 517-534. The calculation bases for the German life insurance tariffs with long-term nursing benefits are ending with age 84. These tariffs include compulsory an annuity beginning with age 85. The claim rates are based on investigations of the NCHS (USA). This paper is establishing claim rates for whole-life tariffs with longterm care insurance benefits only. The influence of long-term care insurance claim rates on mortality of sick and healthy insured persons and vice versa as well as the influence of security loadings on premiums are discussed. The dependence of different calculation bases on net- and risk-premiums as well as on reserves is demonstrated. (Authors) Keywords: Long-term Care, Mortality, Security Loadings. 053021 (MlO, Mll, BlO) A note on random survivor-ship group benefits. Ramsay C.M., University of Nebraska, Lincoln, USA, Astin Bulletin 23, nr. I, 1993, pp. 149-156. Consider a group of n independent lives aged x where each life puts $1 in a fund at time 0. The fund earns interest rate i, and at the end of t years the accumulated value of the fund is divided equally among the survivors. The traditional approach to calculating the expected lump sum benefit per survivor from the initial group of n lives is based on the concept of a deterministic survivorship group. This approach ignores
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This leads to a relatively favorable influence on the rating, as - in particular - the concentration of all AIDS cases in only a few age-groups would be disastrous for the rate structure. Nevertheless, the author expects heavy charges for life and disability insurance further on. If there is no striking success in the medical treatment of AIDS, he expects that massive adjustments of the rating structure will be necessary until the end of the century. In consequence of AIDS, the premium in term and life insurance could increase for some ages by 25%. (Authors) Keywords: AIDS, Multigroupmodel. 053020 (MlO, M30, BlO) Die Ableitung der neuen Pflegefallwahrscheinlichkeiten fur die Pflegerentenversicherung (The determination of new probabilities for the long-term care insurance). Grupp J., Richter H., Wolfsdorf K., Stuttgart, Hamburg, Blatter der Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Versicherungsmathematik, Band XX, Heft 4, oktober 1992, pp. 517-534. The calculation bases for the German life insurance tariffs with long-term nursing benefits are ending with age 84. These tariffs include compulsory an annuity beginning with age 85. The claim rates are based on investigations of the NCHS (USA). This paper is establishing claim rates for whole-life tariffs with longterm care insurance benefits only. The influence of long-term care insurance claim rates on mortality of sick and healthy insured persons and vice versa as well as the influence of security loadings on premiums are discussed. The dependence of different calculation bases on net- and risk-premiums as well as on reserves is demonstrated. (Authors) Keywords: Long-term Care, Mortality, Security Loadings. 053021 (MlO, Mll, BlO) A note on random survivor-ship group benefits. Ramsay C.M., University of Nebraska, Lincoln, USA, Astin Bulletin 23, nr. I, 1993, pp. 149-156. Consider a group of n independent lives aged x where each life puts $1 in a fund at time 0. The fund earns interest rate i, and at the end of t years the accumulated value of the fund is divided equally among the survivors. The traditional approach to calculating the expected lump sum benefit per survivor from the initial group of n lives is based on the concept of a deterministic survivorship group. This approach ignores