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All babies the same
Toby Melville/Reuters
Upfront
Taking Scotland’s polls IS SCOTLAND poised to withdraw from the UK? Two opinion polls published this week suggest the “yes” campaign has passed the 50 per cent mark and could be on track to win the Scottish referendum on independence on 18 September. But headlines aside, it is too close to call, and polling realities suggest either side could be the true leaders at this stage. Opinion polls are typically based on a sample of 1000 people, which means that even if the sample is randomised and representative of the voting population, statistical theories say the margin of error is 3 per cent. In other words, a 50-50 poll split could easily emerge as 47-53 in the real vote. And while many polls shoot for randomness, there may well be biases in the polled sample, meaning the
margin of error is even greater. “If someone asks us for a margin of error we’ll say 3 per cent,” says Anthony Wells of polling firm YouGov, but he adds that a variety of factors mean that this can only be a rule of thumb. YouGov published the first yes-leading poll on Saturday, with a 51-49 split. Undecided voters are also a key factor missing from the headlines. YouGov’s poll actually showed “yes” on 47 per cent, “no” on 45 per cent and “don’t know” on 8 per cent. A TNS poll published Tuesday shows a 50-50 split with “don’t knows” excluded, but the firm places them at 23 per cent. Undecided voters don’t usually make it into the headlines but they will probably tip the balance in determining Scotland’s future.
Attacking Ebola
developers and African health authorities approved the plan on 5 September in Geneva, Switzerland. “We must move as fast as possible.” Ethical guidelines allow treatments that haven’t been fully tested and approved to be used to try and save lives – as long as information is gathered to help establish whether the treatment works. The Geneva meeting agreed to test two experimental vaccines and a handful of other treatments on this basis, including giving patients blood from Ebola survivors.
–Border patrol–
Low-carbon payout
says a study by consultants at Cambridge Econometrics. About half the gain would come from cheap running costs for fuelefficient cars, with 190,000 new green jobs and higher wages also helping. The average household would be £565 a year better off. The findings chime with a study by the Institute for Public Policy Research in London. The IPPR says the European Union could end its dependence on gas from Russia through better energy efficiency. The EU pays Russia €31 billion a year for gas, much of it coming along pipelines through Ukraine.
“YOU can go green and continue to prosper and develop,” said Ed Davey, the UK secretary for energy and climate, on 9 September. And the evidence is on his side. Economists say that, despite the
expense, drastic cuts in the UK’s carbon dioxide emissions will boost the country’s economy. The finding should encourage action to reduce CO2 levels, which reached a new high in 2013, according to a report by the World Meteorological Organization. The growth from 2012 was the biggest jump since 1984, and may be partly down to plants and other organisms taking in less CO2. If climate change isn’t incentive enough to cut emissions, try this: if the UK cut its carbon emissions by 60 per cent from 1990 levels by 2030, as it has promised, its GDP would be 1.1 per cent bigger than if it stuck with fossil fuels, 6 | NewScientist | 13 September 2014
Carlos Garcia Rawlins / Reuters
“If the UK cut its carbon emissions by 60 per cent by 2030, its GDP would rise 1.1 per cent”
SCIENCE to the rescue in West Africa? The World Health Organization is launching an emergency programme to test experimental treatments on people who have Ebola, in a bid to stem the epidemic. The move will get round regulatory barriers that have so far stopped one promising drug that is almost fully tested from being used in the epidemic. “This is absolutely unprecedented,” said Marie-Paule Kieny, head of innovation at the WHO, after a meeting of drug
All babies the same BABIES come in all shapes and sizes – or so you might imagine. According to new international growth charts, all newborns should be broadly the same size, regardless of ethnicity or their mother’s size. Nutrition and health are the only factors that make a difference. Standardised charts already exist for a child’s growth from birth to age 5, but until now, there –Only one size available– was no internationally agreed
For new stories every day, visit newscientist.com/news
BP was negligent
equivalent for fetal development. The INTERGROWTH-21st project pooled data from thousands of healthy, well-fed mothers from the US, UK, India, China, Brazil, Oman, Kenya and Italy. Each had regular measurements made of their fetus and newborn baby. These were then used to plot standard growth charts for fetuses in ideal conditions. Provided the mother is healthy, “all babies grow in a similar way and achieve a similar size at birth”, says Stephen Kennedy at the University of Oxford, who led some of the research (The Lancet, doi.org/f2tx39, doi.org/f2tx4b).
60 Seconds
“BP’s conduct was reckless,” Barbier wrote. Bob Cavnar, author of a book on the accident, says the ruling is BP’s “worst-case scenario”. The company intends to appeal. However, the judgment looks
GUILTY as charged. Last week a US court found BP grossly negligent in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, one of the worst environmental disasters in US history. It could be fined $18 billion. But the industry “BP was reckless. The ruling may not have learned any lessons. is the company’s ‘worstcase scenario’ and it could When the Deepwater Horizon be fined $18 billion” rig exploded in 2010, 11 people died and millions of barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf of Mexico. unlikely to bring significant US district judge Carl Barbier changes in the industry. “I don’t found BP 67 per cent responsible see anything in there that would for the spill, with contractors change the way we fundamentally Transocean and Halliburton also operate,” says John Hughett, who partly to blame. was an expert witness for the case.
More whaling please, asks Japan
Quantum Google
he Asahi Shimbun via Getty Images
GOOGLE has announced plans A BAR on whaling in the Antarctic could prove short-lived, if Japan to build its own quantum has its way. It is drawing up a new computer, despite having “scientific” whaling scheme. purchased one from D-Wave In March, the International Court of Burnaby, Canada, last year. of Justice in The Hague, Netherlands, D-Wave’s computers, which ruled that Japan’s scientific whaling are based on superconducting in Antarctic waters from 2005 to 2014 quantum circuits, display was illegal. Conservationists had quantum behaviour, but it argued the “JARPA II” scheme was a isn’t clear whether their design front for banned commercial whaling. can actually take advantage of The ruling will be debated next quantum mechanics to calculate week by the International Whaling faster than an ordinary PC. Commission in Portoroz, Slovenia. Now Google has hired John The IWC had long allowed JARPA II to Martinis of the University of proceed, but the court overruled that California, Santa Barbara, to build when it said the scheme was “not its own quantum processors, for ‘purposes of scientific research’”. following the D-Wave approach. The IWC’s criteria for judging research Martinis is also working on plans are now under scrutiny. quantum error-correcting techniques, which are likely to be necessary for a working machine. Google says the two projects will run in parallel. “We will continue to collaborate with D-Wave scientists,” said Google’s Hartmut Neven in a blog post. Google plans to upgrade its D-Wave machine. It is no surprise that Google wants to get into the quantum business. A computer that can successfully exploit its quantum nature could theoretically revolutionise certain applications, such as searching large databases –Scientific whaling?– very quickly.
“The credibility of the whole organisation is at stake,” says Vassili Papastavrou of the International Fund for Animal Welfare. “Is the IWC up to the task of making sure future permits for research are legal?” Japan is trying to get around the ruling. In June it caught minke whales off its north-east coast, an area not covered by the ruling. It will ask the IWC to let four coastal communities catch 17 minke whales for local use. It is also drafting a new research plan, JARPA III, that it hopes will comply with the March ruling. If it does, “scientific” whaling could resume in the Antarctic by late 2015. But a resolution proposed by New Zealand could stop this, by making the IWC’s assessment tougher.
The genes of Oz Your genes are patentable in Australia… for now. The country’s Federal Court has ruled that genes isolated from the body are patentable even though they occur in nature because the act of isolating them makes them artificial. Last year, the US Supreme Court ruled the opposite way. The Australian case may go to the country's High Court.
Aircraft was shot down A blizzard of high-energy impacts tore apart the fuselage of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine on 17 July, a preliminary Dutch air investigation report has concluded. The finding is consistent with the theory that a ground-to-air missile downed the Boeing 777 airliner, killing all 298 people on board.
Creaking muscles Starting to slow down? Blame your calves. Deficits in these muscles contribute the most to age-related movement problems, shows a study of muscle output in old age. Hip muscle deficits also cause difficulties, but knee muscles tend to stay as efficient as they are in middle age (Journal of the Royal Society Interface, DOI: 10.1098/ rsif.2014.0858).
Monstrous gibbons Gibbons are kings of gene shuffling. Their genome, now sequenced, seems to have exploded and been put back together in the wrong order (Nature, DOI: 10.1038/nature13679). Over time these reshuffles may have created new species by making offspring with genomes very different to those of their parents.
Smoking gateway? Tobacco experts have described the World Health Organization’s guidelines on e-cigarattes as misguided, calling into question its claims that they act as a gateway drug to smoking (Addiction, doi.org/ vjx). They warn that the stance could have negative health consequences.
13 September 2014 | NewScientist | 7
Upfront
Taking Scotland’s polls IS SCOTLAND poised to withdraw from the UK? Two opinion polls published this week suggest the “yes” campaign has passed the 50 per cent mark and could be on track to win the Scottish referendum on independence on 18 September. But headlines aside, it is too close to call, and polling realities suggest either side could be the true leaders at this stage. Opinion polls are typically based on a sample of 1000 people, which means that even if the sample is randomised and representative of the voting population, statistical theories say the margin of error is 3 per cent. In other words, a 50-50 poll split could easily emerge as 47-53 in the real vote. And while many polls shoot for randomness, there may well be biases in the polled sample, meaning the
margin of error is even greater. “If someone asks us for a margin of error we’ll say 3 per cent,” says Anthony Wells of polling firm YouGov, but he adds that a variety of factors mean that this can only be a rule of thumb. YouGov published the first yes-leading poll on Saturday, with a 51-49 split. Undecided voters are also a key factor missing from the headlines. YouGov’s poll actually showed “yes” on 47 per cent, “no” on 45 per cent and “don’t know” on 8 per cent. A TNS poll published Tuesday shows a 50-50 split with “don’t knows” excluded, but the firm places them at 23 per cent. Undecided voters don’t usually make it into the headlines but they will probably tip the balance in determining Scotland’s future.
Attacking Ebola
developers and African health authorities approved the plan on 5 September in Geneva, Switzerland. “We must move as fast as possible.” Ethical guidelines allow treatments that haven’t been fully tested and approved to be used to try and save lives – as long as information is gathered to help establish whether the treatment works. The Geneva meeting agreed to test two experimental vaccines and a handful of other treatments on this basis, including giving patients blood from Ebola survivors.
–Border patrol–
Low-carbon payout
says a study by consultants at Cambridge Econometrics. About half the gain would come from cheap running costs for fuelefficient cars, with 190,000 new green jobs and higher wages also helping. The average household would be £565 a year better off. The findings chime with a study by the Institute for Public Policy Research in London. The IPPR says the European Union could end its dependence on gas from Russia through better energy efficiency. The EU pays Russia €31 billion a year for gas, much of it coming along pipelines through Ukraine.
“YOU can go green and continue to prosper and develop,” said Ed Davey, the UK secretary for energy and climate, on 9 September. And the evidence is on his side. Economists say that, despite the
expense, drastic cuts in the UK’s carbon dioxide emissions will boost the country’s economy. The finding should encourage action to reduce CO2 levels, which reached a new high in 2013, according to a report by the World Meteorological Organization. The growth from 2012 was the biggest jump since 1984, and may be partly down to plants and other organisms taking in less CO2. If climate change isn’t incentive enough to cut emissions, try this: if the UK cut its carbon emissions by 60 per cent from 1990 levels by 2030, as it has promised, its GDP would be 1.1 per cent bigger than if it stuck with fossil fuels, 6 | NewScientist | 13 September 2014
Carlos Garcia Rawlins / Reuters
“If the UK cut its carbon emissions by 60 per cent by 2030, its GDP would rise 1.1 per cent”
SCIENCE to the rescue in West Africa? The World Health Organization is launching an emergency programme to test experimental treatments on people who have Ebola, in a bid to stem the epidemic. The move will get round regulatory barriers that have so far stopped one promising drug that is almost fully tested from being used in the epidemic. “This is absolutely unprecedented,” said Marie-Paule Kieny, head of innovation at the WHO, after a meeting of drug
All babies the same BABIES come in all shapes and sizes – or so you might imagine. According to new international growth charts, all newborns should be broadly the same size, regardless of ethnicity or their mother’s size. Nutrition and health are the only factors that make a difference. Standardised charts already exist for a child’s growth from birth to age 5, but until now, there –Only one size available– was no internationally agreed
For new stories every day, visit newscientist.com/news
BP was negligent
equivalent for fetal development. The INTERGROWTH-21st project pooled data from thousands of healthy, well-fed mothers from the US, UK, India, China, Brazil, Oman, Kenya and Italy. Each had regular measurements made of their fetus and newborn baby. These were then used to plot standard growth charts for fetuses in ideal conditions. Provided the mother is healthy, “all babies grow in a similar way and achieve a similar size at birth”, says Stephen Kennedy at the University of Oxford, who led some of the research (The Lancet, doi.org/f2tx39, doi.org/f2tx4b).
60 Seconds
“BP’s conduct was reckless,” Barbier wrote. Bob Cavnar, author of a book on the accident, says the ruling is BP’s “worst-case scenario”. The company intends to appeal. However, the judgment looks
GUILTY as charged. Last week a US court found BP grossly negligent in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, one of the worst environmental disasters in US history. It could be fined $18 billion. But the industry “BP was reckless. The ruling may not have learned any lessons. is the company’s ‘worstcase scenario’ and it could When the Deepwater Horizon be fined $18 billion” rig exploded in 2010, 11 people died and millions of barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf of Mexico. unlikely to bring significant US district judge Carl Barbier changes in the industry. “I don’t found BP 67 per cent responsible see anything in there that would for the spill, with contractors change the way we fundamentally Transocean and Halliburton also operate,” says John Hughett, who partly to blame. was an expert witness for the case.
More whaling please, asks Japan
Quantum Google
he Asahi Shimbun via Getty Images
GOOGLE has announced plans A BAR on whaling in the Antarctic could prove short-lived, if Japan to build its own quantum has its way. It is drawing up a new computer, despite having “scientific” whaling scheme. purchased one from D-Wave In March, the International Court of Burnaby, Canada, last year. of Justice in The Hague, Netherlands, D-Wave’s computers, which ruled that Japan’s scientific whaling are based on superconducting in Antarctic waters from 2005 to 2014 quantum circuits, display was illegal. Conservationists had quantum behaviour, but it argued the “JARPA II” scheme was a isn’t clear whether their design front for banned commercial whaling. can actually take advantage of The ruling will be debated next quantum mechanics to calculate week by the International Whaling faster than an ordinary PC. Commission in Portoroz, Slovenia. Now Google has hired John The IWC had long allowed JARPA II to Martinis of the University of proceed, but the court overruled that California, Santa Barbara, to build when it said the scheme was “not its own quantum processors, for ‘purposes of scientific research’”. following the D-Wave approach. The IWC’s criteria for judging research Martinis is also working on plans are now under scrutiny. quantum error-correcting techniques, which are likely to be necessary for a working machine. Google says the two projects will run in parallel. “We will continue to collaborate with D-Wave scientists,” said Google’s Hartmut Neven in a blog post. Google plans to upgrade its D-Wave machine. It is no surprise that Google wants to get into the quantum business. A computer that can successfully exploit its quantum nature could theoretically revolutionise certain applications, such as searching large databases –Scientific whaling?– very quickly.
“The credibility of the whole organisation is at stake,” says Vassili Papastavrou of the International Fund for Animal Welfare. “Is the IWC up to the task of making sure future permits for research are legal?” Japan is trying to get around the ruling. In June it caught minke whales off its north-east coast, an area not covered by the ruling. It will ask the IWC to let four coastal communities catch 17 minke whales for local use. It is also drafting a new research plan, JARPA III, that it hopes will comply with the March ruling. If it does, “scientific” whaling could resume in the Antarctic by late 2015. But a resolution proposed by New Zealand could stop this, by making the IWC’s assessment tougher.
The genes of Oz Your genes are patentable in Australia… for now. The country’s Federal Court has ruled that genes isolated from the body are patentable even though they occur in nature because the act of isolating them makes them artificial. Last year, the US Supreme Court ruled the opposite way. The Australian case may go to the country's High Court.
Aircraft was shot down A blizzard of high-energy impacts tore apart the fuselage of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine on 17 July, a preliminary Dutch air investigation report has concluded. The finding is consistent with the theory that a ground-to-air missile downed the Boeing 777 airliner, killing all 298 people on board.
Creaking muscles Starting to slow down? Blame your calves. Deficits in these muscles contribute the most to age-related movement problems, shows a study of muscle output in old age. Hip muscle deficits also cause difficulties, but knee muscles tend to stay as efficient as they are in middle age (Journal of the Royal Society Interface, DOI: 10.1098/ rsif.2014.0858).
Monstrous gibbons Gibbons are kings of gene shuffling. Their genome, now sequenced, seems to have exploded and been put back together in the wrong order (Nature, DOI: 10.1038/nature13679). Over time these reshuffles may have created new species by making offspring with genomes very different to those of their parents.
Smoking gateway? Tobacco experts have described the World Health Organization’s guidelines on e-cigarattes as misguided, calling into question its claims that they act as a gateway drug to smoking (Addiction, doi.org/ vjx). They warn that the stance could have negative health consequences.
13 September 2014 | NewScientist | 7