Alternative carbon feedstock for the chemical industry? - Assessing the challenges posed by the human dimension in the carbon transition

Journal of Cleaner Production 219 (2019) 786e796

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Cleaner Production journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro

Alternative carbon feedstock for the chemical industry? - Assessing the challenges posed by the human dimension in the carbon transition Roh Pin Lee* TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Institute of Energy Process Engineering and Chemical Engineering, Germany

a r t i c l e i n f o

a b s t r a c t

Article history: Received 3 September 2018 Received in revised form 10 January 2019 Accepted 29 January 2019 Available online 1 February 2019

Our society faces a carbon dilemma whereby there is an imbalance between our need for carbon and the dark side of its utilization. Unlike electricity, heat and mobility sectors where a transition towards renewable energy sources is possible, the chemical industry has no alternative to carbon sources for its production. This paper carried out a case analysis of the German chemical industry. The objective is to identify challenges posed by the human dimension for its carbon transition from a dependence on imported carbon resources towards cleaner and sustainable production using domestic primary and secondary carbon feedstock alternatives. Findings from a representative survey study carried out in Germany in October 2017 showed widespread public misconceptions regarding what are carbon sources and a lack of mental associations regarding the use of domestic biomass, coal, waste and CO2 as feedstock alternatives for chemical production. Furthermore, significant regional difference in support/resistance for coal-to-chemicals as a carbon transition route is also observed. This paper represents a first effort to bridge the gap between transition and circular economy research to facilitate the early identification of human-related barriers to a carbon transition for the chemical industry. © 2019 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Keywords: Carbon transition Chemical industry Alternative carbon feedstock Circular carbon economy Public perception

1. Introduction Global warming, natural resource depletion, economic growth, the growing waste problem and associated environmental and human impacts are key challenges that the global community face in the 21st century. The transformation of energy systems from fossil fuels to renewable energies, the reduction in primary resource consumption and increased utilization of secondary resources are therefore central objectives for politics, industry and society in numerous countries (Lee et al., 2017). In response to these challenges, two major trends can be identified. On the one hand, efforts to promote sustainable development in many nations have focused on an electricity transition i.e. shift from fossil-based electricity production towards renewables (Araujo, 2014). The key objective being the achievement of a low-carbon transformation, in particular in the energy intensive electricity generation sector which is dependent on fossil carbon resources (Araujo, 2014;

* TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Institute of Energy Process Engineering and Chemical Engineering (IEC), Fuchsmuehlenweg 9, 09599, Freiberg, Germany. E-mail address: [email protected].

Fouquet and Pearson, 2012; Markard et al., 2012; Wang and Watson, 2010; Zhao et al., 2017). On the other hand, the concept of the circular economy has gained importance e in particularly in China and the European Union e and captured increasing political, industry and scientific attention (Geissdoerfer et al., 2017; Ghisellini et al., 2016; Korhonen et al., 2018; Murray et al., 2017; Prieto-Sandoval et al., 2018). Taken together, these two trends point to the need to extend the scope of investigation from a predominant and separate focus on an electricity transition and a circular economy towards a carbon transition in our society. A carbon transition, as referred to in this article, is defined as an intelligent and sustainable utilization of primary and secondary carbon resources. This includes not only a transformation from a linear to circular carbon economy. It also requires a fundamental rethink of how domestic carbon resources are utilized. Currently neglected in the agenda of policymakers in most countries, a carbon transition represents an essential building block to a holistic sustainability transition. In the dominant linear economy, carbon resources go through the cycle of extraction, production, distribution and consumption before ending up ultimately as waste (either physically or in the

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.01.316 0959-6526/© 2019 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

R.P. Lee / Journal of Cleaner Production 219 (2019) 786e796

form of CO2 through combustion). In such a linear carbon economy, there is thus an imbalance between our need for carbon and the adverse environmental impacts associated with its utilization i.e. the dark side of carbon utilization. Besides fossil resource depletion and mining-associated environmental damages, the significant amount of CO2 emissions from the combustion of carbon resources for electricity, heat and mobility pose a huge problem. Scientists have identified such anthropological CO2 emissions as a key contributor to global warming and the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events. Moreover, the indiscriminate dumping of carbon waste such as plastics is also leading to a global waste crisis (Lee, 2018a). All these issues associated with the utilization of carbon resources represent a carbon dilemma for our society. Increasingly, the global community is recognizing that a carbon transition whereby our need for carbon can be balanced with climate protection and resource conservation is integral to achieving the sustainable development goals. To facilitate such a transformation, the chemical industry e as the producer of numerous carbon-based products essential for the functioning of our daily life e plays a critical role. Unlike the electricity, heat and mobility sectors where a transition towards renewable energy sources is possible, the chemical industry is essentially carbon-based and has no alternative to carbon sources as feedstock for its chemical production. In Germany, the chemical industry is predominantly dependent on imported crude oil as its main carbon feedstock. Therefore, the question is how this carbon intensive industry can achieve a carbon transition from a dependence on imported carbon resources towards cleaner and sustainable production using domestic primary and secondary carbon feedstock alternatives. A carbon transition in the German chemical industry will require a change from business as usual not only for the chemical sector, but also for other carbon intensive industries such as the energy and waste management sectors. For the chemical industry, the transition involves a shift from a reliance on imported oil to using primary and secondary domestic resources as chemical feedstock. For the energy sector, this means a change from combusting domestic primary carbon carriers such as biomass and lignite for energy to using them chemically. As for the waste and recycling sectors, integrating chemical recycling of secondary carbon carriers i.e. carbon-containing waste as a step before incineration in the waste hierarchy will be necessary (Lee, 2018a). The slow progress of Germany's energy transition project shows that a transformation of the modus operandi for such mature and established industrial sectors from the existing linear carbon economy is highly challenging. This is because such industries are operating in large socio-technical systems that are made up of interrelated components and stakeholders connected in complex networks and infrastructures (Unruh, 2000). A carbon transition would thus require not only a change in “hardware” i.e. technologies and infrastructure to facilitate chemical production from alternative carbon feedstock; a corresponding public support and acceptance for such changes is also necessary. This paper aims to identify challenges posed by the human dimension in carbon transition processes. While significant research has been carried out to understand this aspect and its implications for energy transitions (Jones and Eiser, 2010; Keller et al., 2012; Lee, 2015, 2016; Lee and Gloaguen, 2015; Olazabal and Pascual, 2015; Pidgeon et al., 2008; Truelove, 2012), reviews of extant literature on circular economy have highlighted the predominant focus on quantifiable data and a lack of insights into the human dimension (Geissdoerfer et al., 2017; Korhonen et al., 2018; Murray et al., 2017). Researchers have attempted to address this gap by investigating public awareness and

787

stakeholders’ perspectives of the circular economy (Guo et al., 2017; Leipold and Petit-Boix, 2018; Smol et al., 2018). However, there is a lack of studies providing similar insights for a transition in carbon intensive industries. To support an early identification of human-related barriers to a transformation in the chemical industry, this study presents empirical results from a representative survey study on public knowledge, perception and support of German citizens for domestic carbon resources identified as feedstock alternatives for chemical production. Due to dynamic developments in Germany to promote both an energy transition and a circular economy, insights into public awareness and support/resistance for a transformation of the German chemical industry represents a rich case study on the human-related challenges of such transformation processes. The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 presents the research context and provides a brief descriptive and qualitative overview of alternative carbon feedstock options for the German chemical industry as well as policy drivers and obstacles associated with the different options. Section 3 introduces the theoretical framework, research questions and research design. The results from a representative survey carried out in Germany in October 2017 are presented and discussed in Section 4. The paper concludes with final remarks on the contribution of this research and implications for policy and industry decision-makers working at the forefront of the carbon transition, its limitations and directions for future research.

2. Carbon feedstock alternatives for the German chemical industry In Germany, crude oil is traditionally used as the main carbon feedstock for the chemical industry for the production of platform chemicals and basic feedstock (e.g. methanol, ethylene, H2, NH3, synthetic natural gas). These are in turn essential starting materials for the production of other value-added products and fuels (e.g. household, packaging and pharmaceutical products, gasoline etc.). However, concerns about environmental impacts, carbon leakages along international supply chains, depleting resources and the concentration of oil reserves in politically instable regions have led to the search for alternative feedstock for chemical production (Lee et al., 2018b). In Germany, domestic primary and secondary carbon resources e in particularly biomass, coal, CO2 and waste e are increasingly gaining the attention of policy and industry decisionmakers as viable feedstock alternatives for chemical production. Currently, coal and waste e and biomass to a significant extent e are generally combusted in Germany mainly for electricity generation. While electricity is a valuable and desired product, 100% of the carbon atoms in these carbon carriers are converted through the combustion process into the waste product CO2 which is then emitted into the atmosphere (Meyer and Lee, 2018). Such linear cradle-to-grave model is not only associated with significant greenhouse gas emissions, it also represents a waste of domestic carbon resources (Lee et al., 2018a). With the accelerating pace of the energy transition in the country, these domestic carbon resources will be increasingly displaced by renewable sources for electricity production. This opens up an opportunity to develop innovative carbon value chains to chemically utilize such domestic carbon carriers. Additionally, the utilization of the significant amount of CO2 emissions which will continue to be emitted from carbon intensive industries (e.g. from power generation, chemical, steel, cement industries) as a chemical feedstock can also contribute to achieving a circular carbon economy. In the following paragraphs, policy drivers and obstacles for using domestic carbon carriers as alternative feedstock for chemical production will be reviewed.

788

R.P. Lee / Journal of Cleaner Production 219 (2019) 786e796

2.1. Biomass The key motivations for German policymakers to support the chemical utilization of biomass are to increase supply security, reduce CO2 emissions and boost competitiveness of the German industry (BMEL, 2009). While limited by land/water availability and other constraints, as a renewable carbon source, the chemical utilization of biomass can potentially contribute to supply security in two ways namely import independence as well as availability. While the chemical production process in itself will emit more CO2 compared to conventional oil-based chemical production process, life-cycle analyses have shown that biomass-based chemical production leads to neutral, even negative emissions (Keller, 2018; Lee et al., 2018b). Hence, the German chemical industry is becoming one of the key targets of promotional policies to use biomass chemically (BMEL, 2009, 2014 and 2015). However, there is significant competition between the use of biomass for power and heat production (i.e. energetic utilization) and using it for other non-energetic purposes. Germany's Renewable Energy Sources Act or EEG (Eneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz) currently distorts the competition in favor of an energetic utilization (BMEL & BMU, 2010). Furthermore, a critical concern regarding the use of biomass for either energy or chemical production relates to its competition with the production of food and animal feed using available agricultural areas (BMEL, 2014). As such, policymakers have to consider this food vs. utilization trade-off carefully in their promotion of biomass as a carbon transition option. 2.2. Coal Coal as a chemical feedstock is especially relevant in China and South Africa (Majozi and Veldhuizen, 2015; Minchener, 2011). Although chemical coal utilization emits less CO2 compared to its combustion for electricity production (Lee et al., 2018a), CO2 is nevertheless emitted at a level higher than conventional oil-based chemical production (Keller, 2018; Lee et al., 2018b). Despite this, there are diverse motivations to consider coal as a feedstock for the German chemical industry. First, Germany possesses significant amount of domestic lignite (brown coal), with geological reserves of 72.7 billion t, of which 36.2 billion t are deemed economically minable (DEBRIV, 2016). It is thus independent of lignite imports, with domestic availability projected at 232 years (Prognos, 2011). Not only is the projected global oil reserves less than that of German domestic lignite, oil resources are also generally concentrated in geographical zones that are political hotspots (BP, 2018; Lee et al., 2018b). Germany currently imports oil from 33 countries, many of which are associated with a high political risk rating (BGR, 2016; World Bank, 2017). Hence, using domestic coal to replace imported oil as feedstock for chemical production contributes to supply security. Moreover, it also contributes to reducing carbon leakages along international supply chains. Another key consideration is that the stepwise release of lignite from power generation as part of Germany's energy transition project will result in significant socio-economic impacts for German lignite regions where coal mining, power generation and associated industries are major employers (Lee et al., 2017). Using lignite as a chemical feedstock could offer such coal regions a viable perspective and support their structural change. The German federal government has thus set up a Commission for Growth, Structural Change and Employment €ftigung) to pro(Kommission Wachstum, Strukturwandel und Bescha vide policy recommendations for structural programs to support these regions in their economic, social and infrastructure transitions. Within such programs, instruments could be developed to support the use of lignite as a chemical feedstock. Political support for such chemical utilization of lignite are already observable from

regional governments e.g. in Saxony-Anhalt and North RhineWestphalia (Meyer et al., 2015; Wolfskaempf, 2018). 2.3. Waste Currently, besides landfill and dumping, waste incineration remains the predominant form of waste treatment in many countries. In using waste as feedstock to generate electricity and heat, waste incinerators act as waste-to-energy plants. As with biomass and coal power plants, they represent the end of a linear model whereby carbon atoms in the waste feedstock are emitted as CO2 at the end of their lifespan (Lee et al., 2017; Meyer and Lee, 2018). In Germany's circular economy law (Kreislaufwirtschaftsgesetz e KrWG), the waste hierarchy is defined in terms of (1) reduce, (2) reuse, (3) recycling, (4) other utilization, in particularly energetic utilization and backfilling, and (5) disposal (BMU, 2012). Hence, before incineration, waste should be reused and recycled when possible. In the case of recycling e a key building block to achieve a circular carbon economy e while Germany is at the forefront of material recycling, chemical recycling continues to play an insignificant role (Consultic, 2016; Lee et al., 2017). In recent years, dynamic developments both globally and nationally have highlighted the need to build up the country's capacity for chemical recycling to channel carbon waste back into the carbon cycle. In particularly the plastic disposal challenge has captured global attention. The plastic crisis illustrated vividly by images of giant ocean garbage patches (NOAA, 2018), China's ban on plastic waste imports (Lee, 2018b), the European strategy for plastics in a circular economy (EU Commission, 2018), the potential ban on single-use plastics and the recycling of all plastic bottles by 2025 currently deliberated by the European Union (BBC, 2018), as well as the new German Packaging Law (Verpackungsgesetz) (German Bundestag, 2018) are all drivers to reduce plastic utilization and plastic waste. They also open up new possibilities for using plastic waste as a chemical feedstock. This carbon transition route is highly attractive as it makes it possible to kill multiple birds with one stone. These include resolving the global plastic waste problem, conserving primary carbon resources, reducing dependency on imported oil and a corresponding reduction in carbon leakages, not to mention achieving a circular economy for carbon waste i.e. closing the carbon cycle. It is therefore not surprising that waste-tochemicals is gaining increasing traction both in Germany and also globally (AkzoNobel, 2018; Hornyak, 2017; Kloth, 2018; Miles, 2016). 2.4. CO2 The utilization of CO2 from point sources (e.g. emissions from power plants, chemical, cement and steel industries) as a raw material e also known as carbon capture and utilization (CCU) e is also attracting increasing global interest. Germany has committed itself to reducing the country's CO2 emissions by 80e95% by 2050 (BMUB, 2016). A key building block of its strategy to achieve this goal is via CO2 utilization. Germany has initiated as one of the first nations in the world a major research program in CCU titled “Technologies for Sustainability and Climate Protection: Chemical Processes and Use of CO2” to promote R&D including the use of CO2 for chemical production (Mennicken et al., 2016). Additionally, the German government is also funding large-scale R&D initiatives/ projects where CO2 utilization plays a major role. These include projects for hydrogen power storage & solutions (HYPOS1), using renewable electricity to generate chemical energy carriers

1

http://www.hypos-eastgermany.de/en/.

R.P. Lee / Journal of Cleaner Production 219 (2019) 786e796

(Kopernikus Power-to-X2) to using emissions from steel production as raw materials for chemicals (Carbon2Chem3) (Mennicken et al., 2016; ThyssenKrupp, 2018). At first glance, this “end-of-life” solution for carbon resources appear highly attractive as it promises business as usual for the current linear carbon economy. However, scientists have cautioned that high levels of energy are required to reanimate CO2 at the end of its lifespan so that it could be used as a chemical raw material. Moreover, the total CO2 emissions in Germany also exceed the carbon requirements of the chemical industry by more than a factor 10 (Lee et al., 2018a; Manz, 2017; Meyer et al., 2018). Nevertheless, with the potential to contribute to Germany's CO2 emission reduction targets in addition to increasing supply security and conserving natural resources, efforts to realize this transition route for the chemical industry so as to promote a circular carbon economy are anticipated to intensify. 3. Methods and data 3.1. Theoretical framework and research questions Studies on carbon intensive industries have shown that carbon emission reduction is sensitive to changes in alternative fuels (Zhao et al., 2017). As mentioned in the introduction, the transition from a dependence on imported crude oil to domestic carbon feedstock alternatives for the German chemical industry would require a change from business as usual not only for the chemical sector but also for the energy and waste management sectors. Such mature and established industries are operating in large-scale socio-technical systems. Hence, a key issue is the problem of inertia. Path dependence scholars have identified how socio-technical systems are characterized by path dependence and lock-in along multiple dimensions (Verbong and Geels, 2007; Walker, 2000). Along technological and institutional dimensions, once investment have been made into particular technologies and infrastructures, increasing returns could occur and make it less costly to proceed on that path rather than to reverse or change it. Moreover, sunk investments and development of technical and institutional complementarities between diverse system components further reinforce this phenomenon (Patalano, 2007; Unruh, 2000; Verbong and Geels, 2007; Walker, 2000). For these reasons, proceeding with the existing oil-based chemical production route would seem the path of least resistance. Correspondingly, there would be significant inertia along technological and institutional dimensions to transit to other carbon feedstock options. Additionally, lock-in effects extend beyond the technological and institutional environments to the human dimension. Researchers have detected behavioral and perceptual lock-ins in the energy context (Axon et al., 2018; Keller et al., 2012; Lee, 2016; chal, 2009, 2010; Truelove, 2012). Increasingly, policymakers Mare and industry decision-makers are recognizing that in order to achieve sustainable success in transition processes, it is no longer sufficient to focus predominantly on addressing the technological and institutional dimensions associated with changing the “hardware” (e.g. technologies, infrastructures, logistics). Attention must also be channeled to address barriers that are contributing to a lock-in in the human dimension i.e. “stickiness” in how carbon resources are viewed and accepted in a society (Hirsh and Jones, 2014; Lee and Gloaguen, 2015). To support such efforts, insights into factors contributing to lock-in and inertia in the human dimension are essential.

2

https://www.kopernikus-projekte.de/en/projects/power2x. https://www.fona.de/de/carbon2chem-21137.html; https://www.thyssenkrupp. com/en/carbon2chem/. 3

789

Firstly, misconceptions/false beliefs about what is a carboncontaining resource could lead to inertia in the public realm to support development of domestic carbon resources as alternative chemical feedstock. In the case of energy, though Germany's energy mix is a topic intensively discussed in the politics and in the media, the majority of German citizens are observed to have considerable misconceptions about the role of diverse energy sources in the country's energy mix (EU Commission, 2007; Lee, 2016; Nippa et al., 2013). Hence, it cannot be assumed that Germans are aware that biomass, coal, waste and CO2 are carbon carriers and thus potential feedstock material for the chemical industry. Without this awareness that domestic carbon resources are available, they may be reluctant, even resistant to support carbon transition processes in the German chemical industry. This leads to the first research question: Do German citizens know what are carbon-containing resources that can potentially be used as raw material for chemical production? Secondly, Taylor (1982) noted that “one's judgments are always based on what comes to mind” (in Schwarz and Vaughn, 2009, p.104). Hence, when faced with diverse carbon feedstock options, a person's judgment may be based on imageries that readily come to his/her mind. Judgments and decisions based on the ease with which mental associations come to mind have been termed the availability heuristic by Tversky and Kahneman (1974). Moreover, people's imagery associations are not neutral. The reliance on spontaneously generated affect towards a stimulus object in judgment and decision processes have been termed “affect referral” by Wright, the “how-do-I-feel-about it” heuristic by Schwarz and Clore, and the “affect heuristic” by Slovic, Finucane, Peters and MacGregor (Frederick, 2009, p.550). In the complex environment where decision-making takes place, people generally have finite amount of time, knowledge, motivation or money to spend on considering whether biomass, coal, waste and CO2 are desirable feedstock alternative for the chemical industry. Hence, the reliance on spontaneously generated affect towards mental imageries associated with different carbon sources could act as an effective “fast and frugal” decision heuristic (Gigerenzer and Gaissmaier, 2011; Gigerenzer and Todd, 1999) to facilitate quick, easy and efficient judgment/decisions. Studies carried out in various countries not only observed a strong association of energy sources with specific energy imageries and affect (Keller et al., 2012; Slovic et al., 1990; Truelove, 2012), a German study also found that affective imageries associated with diverse energy sources remained relatively stable even in the aftermath of a significant catastrophe such as the Fukushima nuclear accident (Lee, 2015). This points to a lock-in in energy perception. As perceptual lock-in effects relating to carbon resources could pose significant barriers to efforts to transform the German chemical industry, it is important to identify what the public thinks about the use of domestic carbon resources as chemical feedstock. This leads to the second research question: What mental imageries do German citizens commonly associate with the use of domestic carbon carriers for chemical production and how are these mental imageries affectively evaluated (i.e. imagery-specific affect)? Thirdly, of the four domestic carbon resources investigated, coal is especially controversial in Germany (Lee, 2013). It is unclear whether the German public is willing to support its continual mining and utilization for other purposes following its phase-out for power generation. A lack of public support would lead to significant inertia in the human dimension of transition processes, as illustrated by the example of the failed deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in Germany due to a lack of political and public support (Donath, 2010; DW, 2010). This highlights the importance of gaining insights into public support for

790

R.P. Lee / Journal of Cleaner Production 219 (2019) 786e796

chemical coal utilization. In view of the current deliberations by the German Commission for Growth, Structural Change and Employment regarding possible transition routes for coal-mining regions, such insights would be invaluable in supporting policy and industry decision-makers in their evaluation of whether coal-to-chemicals would be a viable and socially-accepted perspective for such regions. This is the focus of the third research question: How supportive are German citizens for the utilization of coal as raw material for chemical production following the phase-out of coal for power production? 3.2. Survey design and implementation To gain first insights into public awareness, perception and acceptance of domestic biomass, coal, CO2 and waste as chemical feedstock, a questionnaire was designed and implemented as a telephone survey in Germany in October 2017 with the support of a professional survey company Kantar EMNID. Using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI), Kantar EMNID interviewed 1002 German citizens above the age of 14 years old. The sample is oriented towards the distribution of households and sociodemographic structures of the total German population. To address the three research questions, the questionnaire focused on three key issues namely (1) What do people know about carbon sources as feedstock for the chemical industry?, (2) What do people associate with the use of domestic carbon resources for chemical production?, and (3) What is their acceptance for further coal utilization as feedstock for the chemical industry? 3.2.1. Participants 1002 German citizens (55.2% females, 44.8% males) took part in the telephone survey. Figs. 1e3 summarize the age, education background and regional distribution of participants. 3.2.2. Survey questions and analysis What do people know? e The first survey question aimed to determine whether German citizens know what are carboncontaining resources that can be used as chemical feedstock. Participants are asked to indicate in a simple “yes” and “no” question whether they think diverse energy sources/resources are potential carbon raw materials for the chemical industry. An option “do not know” was also available. What do people think? e In the second survey question, participants are asked to provide their mental associations and their affective evaluation of such associations when thinking about using

imported crude oil (conventional carbon feedstock) for chemical production, and when thinking about using domestic carbon resources as alternative chemical feedstock. The word association technique is used to elicit participants' mental associations. This method has been widely utilized by risk perception and decision researchers to gain a deeper understanding of the nature of people's energy evaluation and the motivations/concerns underlying their support/resistance for specific energy sources (Keller et al., 2012; Lee, 2015; Slovic et al., 1991; Truelove, 2012). During the survey, following the first question, participants are informed that imported crude oil and diverse domestic resources are carbon raw materials for the chemical industry. They are then asked to provide the first mental imagery association that came to their mind when they think about the use of crude oil as a raw material for chemical production. Following that, they are asked to rate their feeling/ affect towards this image on a scale from very negative (
3) to very positive (þ3). Participants are then asked to provide the first image that came to their mind as well as the associated affect/feeling when they think about the use of domestic (i) biomass, (ii) lignite, (iii) municipal waste, and (iv) CO2 emitted from industrial production, as carbon raw materials for the chemical industry. The order of presentation for carbon sources (i)-(iv) is randomized among participants to prevent systematic errors. An option “do not know” was also available. For the qualitative analysis, imageries generated by participants are translated from German to English by a translator and the translation double-checked by a bilingual researcher. The English imageries formed the basis for imagery coding. Using the same approach as earlier studies (Keller et al., 2012; Lee, 2015; Truelove, 2012), similar imageries are coded together. Two coders worked independently from each other. Disagreement about coding is settled by an experienced coder through either assignment to existing coded categories or to a new category. Following the completion of coding of generated imageries into categories, an index of affect/feeling toward each image category is obtained by averaging the affective ratings for imageries that were coded together. This allowed for an examination of mean affect associated with a specific imagery (imagery-specific affect) and therefore enabled additional insights into participants’ affective perception of multiple aspects associated with the utilization of each carbon source for chemical production. In the quantitative analysis, the normal probability plot is used to test for normality in the distribution of affective ratings for each imagery. Analysis indicated that not all values are normally distributed. Hence, the non-parametric method Kruskal-Wallis test

Fig. 1. Age distribution of participants.

R.P. Lee / Journal of Cleaner Production 219 (2019) 786e796

791

Fig. 2. Education background of participants.

Fig. 3. Regional distribution of participants.

is used to test whether participants differentiated in their affective evaluation of diverse imageries associated with the chemical utilization of each carbon source. Acceptance for further coal utilization? e The third survey question aimed to determine public support for chemical coal utilization in Germany. Participants are presented with the sentence that the use of domestic lignite as a carbon raw material for the chemical industry would offer people in the German lignite regions employment and thus a future perspective following the end of coal power generation. They are asked to indicate whether they agree or disagree with this sentence on a four point scale (strongly agree, agree, disagree, strongly disagree). An option “do not know” was also available. To obtain insights into regional differences in participants' support for the chemical utilization of domestic lignite, responses are differentiated between (i) the four German states with coal deposits (i.e. Brandenburg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt) and the other twelve states without and (ii) between the coal mining regions i.e. within 50 km of a lignite mine versus those situated outside these zones in the four German states with coal. The normal probability plot is used to test for normality in the distribution of public support for the chemical utilization of coal. As responses are not normally distributed, the non-parametric

method Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is used to test for differences in the distribution of participants’ responses between (i) states with and without coal and (ii) coal mining and non-mining regions in the four German coal states. 4. Results and discussion What do people know? e To answer the first research question, a deliberately simple question requested participants to indicate their beliefs about whether an energy source/resource is a carbon source. Biomass, coal, CO2, natural gas, oil and waste are carbon carriers and are thus viable chemical feedstock. However, nuclear, solar and wind are not carbon carriers. They therefore cannot be used as raw materials for chemical production. This question thus supports an examination of whether and to what extent misconceptions regarding carbon carriers exist. Findings show that misconceptions are not unique to the energy context (Bodzin, 2012; EU Commission, 2007; Lee, 2016; Nippa et al., 2013). Similarly, a large proportion of participants are found to be wrong in their beliefs regarding what is a carbon source and constitutes a potential raw material for chemical production. As illustrated in Fig. 4, while slightly over half the German participants accurately identified biomass, natural gas, oil and waste as carbon

792

R.P. Lee / Journal of Cleaner Production 219 (2019) 786e796

Fig. 4. Knowledge about carbon carriers.

sources which can be used for chemical production; only about one third of them were conscious that coal and CO2 have the same potential. Moreover, while about two-third of the participants correctly indicated that nuclear is not a carbon raw material, only about one-third was able to identify wind and solar correctly as non-carbon sources. Furthermore, a significant proportion of participants (between 10 and 20%) responded that they did not know whether the questioned energy sources/resources are carbon sources or not. Insights into such mistaken beliefs are important as they could influence public support/resistance toward proposals to develop diverse domestic carbon resources as feedstock alternatives for the chemical industry. Consider the following example, participant X mistakenly thinks that it is possible to use wind and solar, but not coal or CO2, as a chemical feedstock. Hence, he believes that with the increasing proportion of wind and solar energy being generated as part of Germany's energy transition, it is possible to replace imported oil with these clean and renewable energy sources to produce chemical products. As such, he is likely to oppose any proposals to develop domestic lignite or CO2 captured from point sources for chemical utilization, and may think of it as a “trick” by vested interests to extend coal utilization. Moreover, he may make unreasonable demands to “clean up” the chemical industry and is frustrated when such demands are not been addressed by the policymakers and key industry players, thus setting the stage for potential conflicts. Results thus point to the need to address such misconceptions in the German society to prevent escalations of frustrations and conflicts that are based on mistaken beliefs. What do people think? e A strong association of carbon carriers with specific imageries and affect could act as a “fast and frugal” heuristic to facilitate quick, easy and efficient judgment and decision-making. Hence, the second research question aims to identify aspects of investigated carbon resources that could function as mental short-cuts to underpin support/resistance towards policies and developments for their chemical utilization. The top five affective imageries that participants commonly associated with investigated carbon carriers are presented in Table 1. A key finding

from the survey is that the majority of the German participants had no dominant mental associations with either oil, biomass, coal, waste or CO2 as chemical feedstock. Specifically, about two-third of participants had no immediate mental associations with the use of oil, biomass, coal and waste as chemical feedstock. For CO2, this lack increased to almost 80%. This lack of association with said carbon sources strongly suggests that German citizens are missing experience and exposure to this issue, which is indicative of an absence of discourse about a carbon transition in the public arena. A closer examination of participants who did associate the carbon sources with specific imageries shows that each imagery also generated a particular feeling of “goodness” or “badness”. An analysis of such imagery-specific affect shows that participants significantly differentiated in their affective evaluation of different imageries associated with a specific carbon source. In general, affective evaluation towards oil imageries were slightly negative, with environmental impacts being most negatively perceived. The evaluation of coal-related imageries was comparatively more negative than that of oil imageries, with environmental impacts and feelings of its chemical utilization being most critically evaluated. In contrast, biomass- and waste-related imageries are evaluated positively. For biomass, especially feelings towards its chemical utilization as well as the association with secondary biomass feedstock are positively perceived. For waste, feelings towards its chemical utilization as well as associations with composting, recycling, waste separation and collection are positively evaluated. In contrast, affect towards CO2 imageries were ambivalent, with negative associations with environmental impacts and positive associations with technology and R&D. Results thus provide empirical evidence that a carbon source is not perceived as “good” or “bad” per se. Rather, there are differentiated aspects underpinning support/resistance for it. Now consider how affective imageries could function as a “fast and frugal” decision heuristic (Gigerenzer and Todd, 1999; Gigerenzer and Gaissmaier, 2011) based on the example of coal. When a person is faced with the decision problem whether or not to support the use of domestic coal for chemical production in

R.P. Lee / Journal of Cleaner Production 219 (2019) 786e796

793

Table 1 Imageries and associated affect. Carbon Source

Imagery 1 Imagery 2

Imagery 3

Imagery 4

Imagery 5

Imagery 6 Kruskal- Wallis Testa

Crude Oil Imageries % of Imageries (N ¼ 1002) Mean Affect (S.D.)

Do not know 64.08%

Plastics & chemical products 10.58%

Oil producers

Environmental impacts

Fuel

Others

5.49%

2.99%

2.79%

14.07%

e


0.06 (2.11)


0.73 (1.68)


1.30 (1.95)


0.04 (1.99)

e

0.00

0.00


2.00

0.00


0.72 (2.12)
1.00

Median Affect Biomass Imageries % of Imageries (N ¼ 1002) Mean Affect (S.D.)

Do not know 68.77%

Feelings

Secondary biomass feedstock

7.98%

Primary biomass sources 4.59%

3.39%

Environmental impacts 3.39%

e

1.05 (2.06)

0.15 (1.98)

1.21 (1.57)

0.50 (2.15)

Median Affect

e

2.00

0.00

1.00

1.00

Coal Imageries

Do not know 65.87%

Environmental impacts 11.18%

Feelings 8.48%

Combustion, electricity & heat production 3.79

Coal regions & companies 2.30

e


1.99 (1.62)


0.97 (2.26)


0.05 (1.99)


0.52 (1.73)

Median Affect

e


3.00


2.00

0.00

0.00

Waste Imageries

Do not know 64.28%

Types of waste

Feelings

Composting & recycling

9.58%

8.18%

5.39%

Waste separation & collection 4.09%

e

0.15 (2.23)

1.10 (2.03)

1.72 (1.53)

1.68 (1.37)

Median Affect

e

0.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

0.71 (2.05) 1.00

CO2 Imageries

Do not know 77.83%

Sources of CO2

Feelings

Environmental impacts

Technology & R&D

Others

7.19%

5.99%

5.79%

2.00%

1.20%

e


0.54 (1.98)


0.37 (2.39)


1.36 (2.02)

1.50 (1.43)

0.00


0.50


2.00

2.00

1.00 (2.49) 2.50

% of Imageries (N ¼ 1002) Mean Affect (S.D.)

% of Imageries (N ¼ 1002) Mean Affect (S.D.)

% of Imageries (N ¼ 1002) Mean Affect (S.D.) Median Affect a

13.55**

Others 11.88% 1.10 (1.87) 2.00

10.90*

Others 8.38%
0.49 (2.00)
1.00

48.68***

Others 8.48%

26.33***

29.12***

The Kruskal-Wallis test tests for significant differences between affect associated with diverse imageries for each carbon source. *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.

Germany, he/she searches in his/her memory and spontaneously generates a mental imagery of environmental impacts. He/she stops looking for other information once this image comes to his/ her mind (stopping rule). He/she then uses his/her affective evaluation of this imagery to make a quick and effective decision to support/not support the proposed coal-to-chemicals project (decision rule). This example illustrates how affective imagery, in providing a basis for decision, could discourage an individual from considering the issue more carefully and facilitate a quick decision regarding the decision problem. This is in line with Frederick’s (2009) observation that affective response, through providing a basis for decision, could discourage further analysis as judgment and decision may be anchored on one's initial affective evaluations despite attempts to supplement this with additional information. Despite the above initial insights into aspects of carbon sources underpinning support and resistance to their chemical utilization, the key conclusion from the study in response to research questions one and two is that the German public does not appear to have an awareness or knowledge of this issue. Hence, it points to the need to engage the public in discourse as well as develop communication and engagement measures to raise public awareness about this topic. Such efforts to engage the human dimension in the sociotechnical system are necessary to accompany developments along the technical and institutional dimensions to promote public understanding and acceptance for the implementation of carbon

transition measures. Acceptance for further coal utilization? e Of the four domestic carbon carriers investigated as carbon transition options, coal is especially controversial. On the one hand, coal-to-chemicals contributes to increasing supply security (in terms of both resource availability and price stability), reducing carbon leakages along international supply chains and employment in domestic lignite regions. On the other hand, its chemical utilization following coal phase-out for electricity generation in Germany translates into the continuation of coal mining in the country with all its associated environmental impacts. Balancing between supply security, competitiveness, sustainable development, structural change in coal mining areas and societal acceptance is a highly challenging task for policymakers and key industry players. Hence, insights into not just the general level of public support, but identifying where support and resistance for such a transition route lie, can contribute to decision-making processes regarding whether German citizens will accept coal as a chemical feedstock. Fig. 5(a) illustrates the four German states with coal deposits in light grey and presents the results of participants’ support and resistance towards coal-to-chemical activities in Germany. Not surprisingly, participants from states with coal deposits are observed to be more supportive of using domestic coal as a chemical feedstock than those living in states without coal (51% vs. 43%, KeS statistic ¼ 3.84, p < 0.05).

794

R.P. Lee / Journal of Cleaner Production 219 (2019) 786e796

Fig. 5. a: Support for coal-to-chemicals (states with coal vs. states without coal).b: Support for coal-to-chemicals in states with coal (coal mining regions vs. areas outside coal mining regions).

Focusing on the four German states with coal deposits, participants’ responses are further distinguished between the coal mining regions i.e. within 50 km of a lignite mine in the Lausitz, Middle Saxony and Rhineland areas versus those situated outside these zones. The coal mining regions are illustrated in dark grey within the states with coal in Fig. 5(b). Support for coal-to-chemicals is found to be considerably higher in the Lausitz, Middle Saxony and Rhineland regions at 61%, compared to other parts of the German coal states at 47% (KeS statistic ¼ 1.69, p < 0.01). In the four German coal states outside the coal mining regions, support for coal-tochemicals was closer to the 43% observed for the rest of Germany. Moreover, the proportion of undecided participants in the four coal states was also much higher compared to the rest of Germany. Survey findings thus indicate a stronger support for coal-tochemicals in coal mining regions. This is not surprising considering the direct positive effects in terms of employment and future perspective that its chemical utilization can bring to these regions. Interesting, while similar lower levels of support for using domestic coal as chemical feedstock are observed in participants from the twelve German states without coal and those living outside of the 50 km radius of coal mining regions in the four German states with coal, the later exhibited a stronger ambivalence towards coal-tochemicals. This observation has two important implications, in particular in view of the current deliberations by the German Commission for Growth, Structural Change and Employment to develop policy recommendations for structural programs to support coal mining regions in their transition processes. First, less than a fifth of the participants from coal mining regions disagreed that using coal as a chemical feedstock can support their structural change and provide a viable perspective following coal phase-out for electricity production (Fig. 5b). Hence, a neglect of this option by the Commission as one possible transition routes for the coal mining areas Lausitz, Middle Saxony and Rhineland may lead to frustration that not all avenues are being explored by the politics, thus setting the stage for potential conflicts. Second, German citizens in general appear to be conflicted about coal-to-chemicals. Taken together with the insights gained from above whereby the

majority of the participants are found to be unaware that coal is a carbon feedstock alternative as well as having no mental associations for coal-to-chemicals, study results suggest that there is an urgent need to increase the topic's salience in public discourse. Initiating public discussion about a carbon transition for carbonintensive industries that have no alternatives to carbon raw materials for their production could contribute to clearing up existing misconceptions. Encouraging public debates about this issue could enable the German public to gather enough information and experience relating to domestic primary and secondary carbon carriers so that they are equipped to make an informed decision regarding their preferred carbon transition option.

5. Conclusion This is the first study to investigate human-related challenges to a transition in carbon intensive industrial sectors that are dependent on carbon resources for their production. The key research objective is to identify barriers that are contributing to lock-in and inertia in the human dimension with respect to a carbon transition for the chemical industry from a dependence on imported crude oil towards domestic primary and secondary carbon feedstock alternatives. Study findings provide initial insights into (1) public misconceptions relating to carbon sources as feedstock alternatives for the chemical industry, (2) imageries and imagery-specific affect that are spontaneously associated with the use of imported crude oil and domestic biomass, coal, waste and CO2 for chemical production, and (3) regional differences in German citizens’ support for coal-to-chemicals activities following its phase-out for power production in the country. Study findings have implications for policy and managerial decision-makers who are using surveys to investigate public citizens' perception and acceptance for diverse energy sources and natural resources in order to support their decision-making process. Generally, a one item quantitative measure is used to provide an indication of the level of support or opposition that an energy source or natural resource elicit. For example, the EU Barometer used the

R.P. Lee / Journal of Cleaner Production 219 (2019) 786e796

question “Are you in favor or opposed to the use of these different sources of energy in (OUR COUNTRY)?” to assess people's level of energy acceptance on a scale from 1 (strongly opposed) to 7 (strongly in favor) (EU Commission, 2007, p. 25). While such one item quantitative measures could provide an indication of the level of support and opposition that an energy source or natural resource elicit, it is not able to provide policymakers or industry decisionmakers with insights into human-related barriers that may lead to inertia in the public realm to support carbon transition measures. The investigations in this study show that a simple question about whether people are aware what are carbon sources is an effective way to gain information about the misconceptions that the public hold regarding viable carbon feedstock alternatives for the chemical industry. Clearing up such misconceptions would be the first step towards promoting informed decision-making for a carbon transition in the society. Moreover, although it is more effortful to analyze the content of spontaneously generated imageries and imagery-specific affect, such insights provide policymakers and industry decisionmakers with valuable information regarding aspects of a carbon source that are eliciting concern. This can facilitate the timely development of communication and engagement measures to accompany technological and institutional developments in order to support the successful implementation of carbon transition measures. Last but not least, study findings have implications for policy and industry decision-makers who use aggregated data to obtain a mean value to reflect the view of an “average” citizen to inform their decision-making. Mean analyses are popular especially in large-scale studies to obtain an overview of citizens' view of a particular issue (e.g. EU Commission, 2007; Nippa et al., 2013). The subgroup analyses used in this study to investigate regional differences in support for coal-to-chemical activities enabled more specific insights into group differences in support and resistance for such a carbon transition route. Identifying such divergence in preferences between regions and subgroups represents an integral building block in the development of targeted measures to align different stakeholders’ interests for a sustainable carbon transition in the chemical industry. While valuable lessons can be drawn from this study, its focus on the specific case of Germany e an industrialized country with ambitious targets for its energy transition project and in developing its circular economy e limits the generalizability of findings to other national contexts. Moreover, while affective imageries commonly associated with the chemical utilization of investigated domestic carbon sources are identified, it is important to keep in mind that these associations are only provided by a small proportion of the participants. Additionally, as their energetic utilization for electricity production have received significant media coverage in the course of Germany's energy transition project, strong associations of domestic carbon carriers with electricity production e rather than actual issues relating to their chemical utilization e could be driving responses to a carbon transition for the chemical industry. More research is therefore needed to investigate the transferability of study insights to other contexts, and assess how perceptual lock-ins and its diffusion across sectors could lead to support and resistance for different carbon transition options. To conclude, this paper represents a first effort to bridge the gap between transition and circular economy research. In assessing the challenges posed by the human dimension of a carbon transition based on the case analysis of the German chemical industry, it illustrates how the transition of carbon intensive industries towards sustainable and cleaner production is a subject worthy of much closer research and policy attention. Acknowledgements This research is supported by the German Federal Ministry of

795

Education and Research (BMBF) through the research project grant no. 01LN1713A to the research group Global Change: STEEPCarbonTrans. Any opinions, findings, conclusions and recommendations in the document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the BMBF. The author gratefully acknowledges the support by Anna Seidl in the data analyses. Appendix A. Supplementary data Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.01.316. References AkzoNobel, 2018. Partners Agree on Initial Funding to Kick off Waste-To-Chemistry Project in Rotterdam. https://www.akzonobel.com/en/for-media/mediareleases-and-features/partners-agree-initial-funding-kick-waste-chemistryproject. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Araujo, K., 2014. The emerging field of energy transitions: progress, challenges, and opportunities. Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 1, 112e121. Axon, S., Morrissey, J., Aiesha, R., Hillman, J., Revez, A., Lennon, B., Salel, M., Dunphy, N., Boo, E., 2018. The human factor: classification of European community-based behavior change initiatives. J. Clean. Prod. 182, 567e586. BBC, 2018. The EU is proposing a ban on straws and other single-use plastics. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44280532. (Accessed 22 August 2018). BGR, 2016. Energiestudie 2016. https://www.bgr.bund.de/DE/Themen/Energie/ Downloads/Energiestudie_2016.pdf?__blob¼publicationFile&v¼3. (Accessed 22 August 2018). BMEL, 2009. Aktionsplan der Bundesregierung zur stofflichen Nutzung nachwachsender Rohstoffe. https://www.bmel.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/ Broschueren/AktionsplanNaWaRo.pdf?__blob¼publicationFile. (Accessed 22 August 2018). €konomie. Nachwachsende Ressourcen BMEL, 2014. Nationale Politikstrategie Bioo und biotechnologische Verfahren als Basis für Ern€ ahrung, Industrie und Energie. https://www.bmbf.de/files/BioOekonomiestrategie.pdf. (Accessed 22 August 2018). €rderprogramm nachwachsende rohstoffe. https://www.bmel.de/ BMEL, 2015. Fo SharedDocs/Downloads/Landwirtschaft/Bioenergie-NachwachsendeRohstoffe/ FoerderprogrammNWR2015.pdf?__blob¼publicationFile. (Accessed 22 August 2018). BMEL & BMU, 2010. Nationaler Biomasseaktionsplan für Deutschland. Beitrag der Biomasse für eine nachhaltige Energieversorgung. https://www.bmbf.de/files/ BiomasseaktionsplanNational.pdf. (Accessed 22 August 2018). €rderung der Kreislaufwirtschaft und Sicherung der BMU, 2012. Gesetz zur Fo €glichen Bewritschaftung von Abfa €llen. https://www.gesetze-imumweltvertra internet.de/krwg/KrWG.pdf. (Accessed 22 August 2018). €tze und Ziele BMUB, 2016. Klimaschutzplan 2050. Klimaschutzpoliitsche Grundsa der Bundesregierung. http://www.bmub.bund.de/fileadmin/Daten_BMU/ Download_PDF/Klimaschutz/klimaschutzplan_2050_bf.pdf. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Bodzin, A., 2012. Investigating urban eighth-grade students' knowledge of energy resources. Int. J. Sci. Educ. 34 (8), 1255e1275. BP, 2018. Tatistical review of world energy June 2018. S. https://www.bp.com/ content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bpstats-review-2018-full-report.pdf. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Consultic, 2016. Produktion, Verarbeitung und Verwertung von Kunststoffen in Deutschland 2015 - Kurzfassung. http://www.bkv-gmbh.de/fileadmin/ documents/Studien/Consultic_2015__23.09.2016__Kurzfassung.pdf. (Accessed 1 October 2016). DEBRIV, 2016. Lignite in Germany 2015 Facts and Figures. Statistic Flyer published by Bundesverband Braunkohle. Donath, J., 2010. Not under my backyard: one German town's fight against CO2 capture technology. http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/not-undermy-backyard-one-german-town-s-fight-against-co2-capture-technology-a710573.html. (Accessed 5 June 2011). DW, 2010. German town resists carbon capture and storage scheme. http://www. dw.de/german-town-resists-carbon-capture-and-storage-scheme/a-6051835-1. (Accessed 6 February 2011). EU Commission, 2007. Energy technologies: knowledge, perception, measures: special barometer 262. Special eurobarometer. http://ec.europa.eu/public_ opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_262_en.pdf. (Accessed 2 February 2012). EU Commission, 2018. European strategy for plastics. http://ec.europa.eu/ environment/waste/plastic_waste.htm. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Fouquet, R., Pearson, Peter, J.G., 2012. Past and prospective energy transitions: insights from history. Energy Policy 50, 1e7. Frederick, S., 2009. Automated choice heuristics. In: Gilovich, T., Griffin, D.W., Kahneman, D. (Eds.), Heuristics and Biases: the Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge University Press, New York (USA), pp. 548e558. Geissdoerfer, M., Savaget, P., Bocken, Bocken, Nancy, M.P., Hultink, E.J., 2017. The circular economy - a new sustainability paradigm? J. Clean. Prod. 143, 757e768.

796

R.P. Lee / Journal of Cleaner Production 219 (2019) 786e796

German Bundestag, 2018. Neuregelungen durch das Verpackungsgesetz gegenüber der Verpackungsverordnung. WD 8 - 3000 -051/17. https://www.bundestag.de/ blob/543812/e1f20553870a923ce83b9a4b174f4a4a/wd-8-051-17-pdf-data.pdf. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Ghisellini, P., Cialani, C., Ulgiati, S., 2016. A review on circular economy: the expected transition to a balanced interplay of environmental and economic systems. J. Clean. Prod. 114, 11e32. Gigerenzer, G., Gaissmaier, W., 2011. Heuristic decision making. Annu. Rev. Psychol. 62 (1), 451e482. Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P.M., 1999. Fast and frugal heuristics: the adaptive toolbox. In: Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P.M., the ABC Research Group (Eds.), Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart. Oxford University Press, Inc, New York (USA), pp. 3e34. Guo, B., Geng, Y., Sterr, T., Zhu, Q.H., Liu, Y.X., 2017. Investigating public awareness on circular economy in western China: a case of Urumqi Midong. J. Clean. Prod. 142, 2177e2186. Hirsh, R.R., Jones, C.F., 2014. History's contributions to energy research and policy. Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 106e111. Hornyak, T., 2017. Plastic fantastic: how does Tokyo recycle its waste? https://www. japantimes.co.jp/life/2017/06/10/environment/plastic-fantastic-tokyo-recyclewaste/#.W31ekH-0W3A. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Jones, C.R., Eiser, J.R., 2010. Understanding "local" opposition to wind development in the UK: how big is a backyard? Energy Policy 38, 3106e3117. Keller, F., 2018. Environmental evaluation of the production of platform chemicals from different feedstock. In: 9th International Freiberg Conference on IGCC & XtL Technologies, 3-8 June, Berlin, Germany. Abstract in Conference Proceeding. https://tu-freiberg.de/fakult4/iec/evt/environmental-evaluation-of-theproduction-of-platform-chemicals-from-different-feed, 2363e8702. Keller, C., Visschers, V., Siegrist, M., 2012. Affective imagery and acceptance of replacing nuclear power plants. Risk Anal. 32 (3), 464e477. Kloth, M., 2018. Durchbruch bei Plastikmüll-Recycling. https://www.sz-online.de/ sachsen/durchbruch-bei-plastikmuell-recycling–3961307.html. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Korhonen, J., Nuur, C., Feldmann, A., Birkie, S.E., 2018. Circular economy as an essentially contested concept. J. Clean. Prod. 175, 544e552. Lee, R.P., 2013. Germany's coal dilemma. ESI Bulletin 6 (2), 5e7. Lee, R.P., 2015. Stability of energy imageries and affect following shocks to the global energy system: the case of Fukushima. J. Risk Res. 18 (7), 965e988. Lee, R.P., 2016. Misconceptions and biases in German students' perception of multiple energy sources: implications for science education. Int. J. Sci. Educ. 38 (6), 1036e1056. Lee, R.P., 2018a. Alternative carbon feedstock for the chemical industry: challenges posed by the human dimension in the social-technical system, 9th International Freiberg Conference on IGCC & XtL Technologies, 3-8 June, Berlin, Germany. Abstract in conference proceeding. https://tu-freiberg.de/fakult4/iec/evt/ alternative-carbon-feedstock-for-the-chemical-industry-challenges-posed-bythe-human, 2363e8702. Lee, Y.N., 2018b. The world is scrambling now that China is refusing to be a trash dumping ground. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/16/climate-change-chinabans-import-of-foreign-waste-to-stop-pollution.html. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Lee, R.P., Gloaguen, S., 2015. Path-dependence, lock-in, and student perceptions of nuclear energy in France: implications from a pilot study. Energy Research & Social Science 8, 86e99. Lee, R., Laugwitz, A., Keller, F., Wolfersdorf, C., Mehlhose, F., Meyer, B., 2017. Achieving a closed carbon & circular economy for the waste management sector - net zero emissions, resource efficiency and conservation by coupling -Kozmiensky, K.J., the energy, chemical and recycling sectors. In: Thome -Kozmiensky, E., Winter, F., Juchelkova , D. (Eds.), Waste ManThiel, S., Thome -Kozmiensky, agement, Volume 7 e Waste-To-Energy. TK Verlag Karl Thome Nietwerder, Germany, pp. 343e354. Lee, R.P., Keller, F., Meyer, B., 2018a. A concept to support the transformation from a linear to a circular carbon economy - net zero emissions, resource efficiency and conservation through a coupling of the energy, chemical and waste management sectors. Clean Energy 1, 102e113. Lee, R.P., Reinhardt, R., Keller, F., Gurtner, S., Schiffer, L., 2018b. A raw materials transition for a low-carbon economy: challenges and opportunities for management in addressing the trilemma of competitiveness, supply security and sustainability. In: George, G., Schillebeeckx, S. (Eds.), Managing Natural Resources: Organizational Strategy, Behavior and Dynamics. Edward Elgar Publishing, London, UK, pp. 61e87. Leipold, S., Petit-Boix, A., 2018. The circular economy and the bio-based sector e perspectives of European and German stakeholders. J. Clean. Prod. 201, 1125e1137. Majozi, T., Veldhuizen, P., 2015. The chemicals industry in South Africa. https:// www.aiche.org/sites/default/files/cep/20150746.pdf. (Accessed 22 August 2018). €ger - fluch oder segen? https://tuManz, H.H., 2017. Heimische kohlenstofftra freiberg.de/sites/default/files/media/steep-carbontrans-28749/News/ brennstoffspiegel_12-2017_steep.pdf. (Accessed 22 August 2018). chal, K., 2009. An evolutionary perspective on the economics of energy conMare sumption: the crucial role of habits. J. Econ. Issues 43 (1), 69e88. chal, K., 2010. Not irrational but habitual: the importance of "behavioral lockMare in" in energy consumption. Ecol. Econ. 69, 1104e1114. Markard, J., Raven, R., Truffer, B., 2012. Sustainability transitions: an emerging field of research and its prospects. Res. Pol. 41, 955e967.

Mennicken, L., Janz, A., Roth, S., 2016. The German R&D program for CO2 utilization - innovations for a green economy. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Control Ser. 23, 11389e11392. Meyer, B., Lee, R.P., 2018. Demands on conversion technologies for the sustainability utilization of carbon sources. In: 9th International Freiberg Conference on IGCC & XtL Technologies, 3-8 June, Berlin, Germany. Abstract in Conference Proceeding. ISSN: 2363e8702. https://tu-freiberg.de/fakult4/iec/evt/demands-onconversion-technologies-for-the-sustainable-utilization-of-carbon-sources. Meyer, B., Appelt, J., Baitalow, F., Boblenz, K., Gutte, H., Keller, F., Krzack, S., Laugwitz, A., 2015. Stoffliche Nutzung von Braunkohle. Gutachten für den Landtag Nordrhein-Westfalen, Enquetekommission 11, zur Zukunft der chemischen Industrie in Nordrhein-Westfalen im Hinblick auf nachhaltige Rohstoffbasen, Produkte und Produktionsverfahren. https://www.landtag.nrw.de/ portal/WWW/GB_I/I.1/EK/16.WP/EK_II/EK_II_-_Info_16-402-TU_Freiberg.pdf. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Meyer, B., Keller, F., Wolfersdorf, C., Lee, R.P., 2018. Ein Konzept für die Kohlenstoffkreislaufwirtschaft. Sektorkopplung zwischen Energie, Chemie & Abfall. Chem. Ing. Tech. 90 (1e2), 241e248. Miles, A., 2016. Enerkem biorefineries: setting a new global standard in biofuels, chemicals and waste management. https://www.nepic.co.uk/wp-content/ uploads/2016/09/AlexMiles-ENERKEM.pdf. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Minchener, Andrew, J., 2011. Coal-to-oil, gas and chemicals in China. https://www. usea.org/sites/default/files/022011_Coal-to-oil,%20gas%20and%20chemicals% 20in%20China_ccc181.pdf. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Murray, A., Skene, K., Haynes, K., 2017. The circular economy: an interdisciplinary exploration of the concept and application in a global context. J. Bus. Ethics 140, 369e380. Nippa, M., Lee, R.P., Gloaguen, S., Meschke, S., Hanebuth, A., 2013. Kohle - akzep€ ße aus der Wistanzdiskussionen im Zeichen der Energiewende. Denkansto senschaft. http://energierohstoffzentrum.com/assets/Uploads/Media/Studien/ Studie-Kohle-Akzeptanzdiskussionen-Auflage-2.pdf. (Accessed 12 September 2013). NOAA, 2018. Garbage Patches: How Gyres Take Our Trash Out to Sea. https:// oceanservice.noaa.gov/podcast/mar18/nop14-ocean-garbage-patches.html. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Olazabal, M., Pascual, U., 2015. Urban low-carbon transitions: cognitive barriers and opportunities. J. Clean. Prod. 109, 336e346. Patalano, R., 2007. Mind-dependence. The past in the grip of the present. J. Bioecon. 9, 85e107. Pidgeon, N., Lorenzoni, I., Poortinga, W., 2008. Climate change or nuclear power No thanks! A quantitative study of public perceptions and risk framing in Britain. Glob. Environ. Chang. 18 (1), 69e85. Prieto-Sandoval, V., Jaca, C., Ormazabal, M., 2018. Towards a consensus on the circular economy. J. Clean. Prod. 179, 605e615. €renergietra €ger zur Stromerzeugung. https:// Prognos, 2011. Bewertung der Prima www.metropoleruhr.de/fileadmin/user_upload/metropoleruhr.de/ Regionalplanung/Energiewirtschaft_Fernwaerme/Ordn_04a_EnergiewirtschaftFernwaerme_R04_Bewertung_der_Primaerenergietraeger_zur_ Stromerzeugung_April_2011.pdf. (Accessed 21 August 2016). Schwarz, N., Vaughn, L.A., 2009. The availability heuristic revisited: ease of recall and content of recall as distinct sources of information. In: Gilovich, T., Griffin, D.W., Kahneman, D. (Eds.), Heuristics and Biases. The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge University Press, New York (USA), pp. 103e119. Slovic, P., Layman, M., Flynn, J.H., 1990. What comes to mind when you hear the words “nuclear waste repository”? A study of 10,000 imageries. Report for Nevada Agency for Nuclear Projects e yucca Mountain Socioeconomic Project. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id¼1589823. (Accessed 15 November 2011). Slovic, P., Layman, M., Flynn, J., 1991. Risk perception, trust, and nuclear waste. Lessons from Yucca Mountain. Environment 33 (3), 6e30. Smol, M., Avdiushchenko, A., Kulczycka, J., Nowaczek, A., 2018. Public awareness of circular economy in southern Poland: case of the Malopolska region. J. Clean. Prod. 197, 1035e1045. ThyssenKrupp, 2018. Carbon2Chem®. https://www.thyssenkrupp.com/en/ carbon2chem/. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Truelove, H.B., 2012. Energy source perceptions and policy support: image associations, emotional evaluations, and cognitive beliefs. Energy Policy 45, 478e489. Tversky, A., Kahneman, D., 1974. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185 (4157), 1124e1131. Unruh, G.C., 2000. Understanding carbon lock-in. Energy Policy 28, 817e830. Verbong, G., Geels, F.W., 2007. The ongoing energy transition: lessons from a sociotechnical, multi-level analysis of the Dutch electricity system (1960-2004). Energy Policy 35, 1025e1037. Walker, W., 2000. Entrapment in large technical systems: institutional commitment and power relations. Res. Pol. 29, 833e846. Wang, T., Watson, J., 2010. Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition. Energy Policy 38, 3537e3546. Wolfskaempf, V., 2018. Braunkohleausstieg: was kommt danach? https://www.mdr. de/nachrichten/wirtschaft/regional/was-kommt-nach-der-braunkohle-100. html. (Accessed 22 August 2018). World Bank, 2017. The worldwide governance indicators project. http://info. worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#home. (Accessed 22 August 2018). Zhao, L., Guozhu, Mao, Wang, Y., Du, H., Zou, H., Zuo, J., Liu, Y., Huisingh, D., 2017. How to achieve low/no-fossil carbon transformations: with a special focus upon mechanisms, technologies and policies. J. Clean. Prod. 163, 15e23.