Alternative water policies for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

Alternative Water Policies for the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries W A L E E D K. AL-ZUBARI Desert and Arid Zones Sciences Program, College of Graduate Studies, Arabian Gulf University, PO Box 26671, Bahrain. E-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT: The Gulf Cooperation Council countries are characterized by extremely arid climate and are in general devoid of reliable surface water supplies and depend primarily on groundwater (90%) and desalination (7.8%) of seawater to meet their water requirements. Since the early 1970s, these countries have experienced rapid population growth, and an accelerated social, agricultural, and industrial development, resulting from the sudden increase in oil revenues. Accompanying this growth has been substantial increase in water demands, which has placed great pressures on the region's limited water resources. Currently, all Gulf Cooperation Council countries are experiencing water deficits totaling more than 15 billion cubic meters (Bcm). Three scenarios are considered in this paper for the period 1995-2025: 1) business as usual, 2) supply augmentation, and 3) supply augmentation and policy remedies. In the third scenario, a major review and shift in water policies, emphasizing conservation and demand management, are suggested and outlined, with the overall objective of securing long term water supplies while meeting strict criteria for socio-economic, financial and environmental sustainability and public health requirements. The results of this study indicate that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries would continue to experience a deficit in their water resources for all three scenarios, although it is lesser in the third scenario, if their targets of maximum food security are adhered to, and their population growth rates continue as projected. However, the successful implementation of the proposed policies in the third scenario would be the milestone for paving the long intricate path towards coping with the water scarcity in this arid region.

INTRODUCTION The Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates), comprising with Yemen the Arabian Peninsula, occupy an area of about 2.8 million Km 2 (UNSPD, 1997). Most of the region is characterized by an extremely arid climate that is devoid of reliable surface water supplies, and depend entirely on groundwater and desalination to meet their water requirements. These countries have experienced an accelerated development growth since the early 1970s, due to the sudden increase in oil revenues, which have led to a rapid increase in their economic base and improvement in the standard of living. During the last five decades the total population in the countries of the region has increased about five folds, from about 5 million in 1950 to 25.5 million in 1995 (UNSPD, 1997). The average population growth rate in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries at present is over 3.5%, which is the highest in the world. The rapid increase in population, along with social, agricultural, and industrial development, has resulted in substantial increase in water demands, placing great pressures on the region's limited water resources. Total annual water demand has increased

from 6 billion cubic meters in 1980 (A1-Alawi and Abdulrazzak, 1994) to 26 Bcm in 1995. Food selfsufficiency has been a goal of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and with the agricultural sector being the main water consumer (85%). Currently, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries are suffering from a huge deficit in their water resources reaching about 15 Bcm annually. This deficit is met mainly by over-drafting of groundwater resources, by desalinization of seawater, and by reuse of treated wastewater. If current population growth rates and water use practices and patterns continue, annual water demand may reach 49 billion cubic meters by the year 2025. It is anticipated that this projected increase in water demand will be met mainly by further mining of groundwater. Unless major review and shifts in the current policies of population and adopted food self-sufficiency are made, and an appropriate and drastic measures in water conservation are implemented, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries are headed for a future major water crisis. In the 21 st century, it is anticipated that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will experience a series of major environmental problems resulting from:

Water ResourcesPerspectives:Evaluation, Management and Policy. Edited by A.S. Alsharhan and W.W. Wood. Published in 2003 by Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, p. 155-167.

w. K. AL-ZUBARI

physiographic features are given elsewhere (e.g., A1Alawi and Abdulrazzak, 1994).

9 Escalating water demands and lack of conservation measures; 9 Slow rate of water resources augmentation due to limited opportunities; 9 Continuous deterioration of water quality and reduction in the yield of heavily exploited aquifers; 9 Modest programs for the treatment of wastewater from rapidly developing urban communities; 9 Inefficient methods of wastewater treatment and solid waste disposal; and 9 Lack of a solution to the issue of rapid population growth.

Surface Water The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have very little surface water resources. The only areas receiving enough rainfall to generate reasonable amounts of runoff are the southwestem parts of Saudi Arabia, the southern parts of United Arab Emirates, and the southern parts of Oman. Annual surface runoff volume in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries is estimated to average 4.8 Bcm annually, with very high temporal and spatial variation that it is typical of arid regions. The limited surface water that does occur is used in flood irrigation, and impounded behind dams, and recharge to alluvial aquifers beneath wadis.

This study presents the available water resources in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, discusses the problem of population growth and adopted agricultural policies and their impacts on water demands, and looks at the anticipated future water demands in these countries. Alternative policies towards sustainable development and use of water resources from a regional perspective are presented and discussed, and proposed policy remedies and other course of actions are outlined.

Groundwater The Gulf Cooperation Council countries depend primarily on groundwater to meet their water requirements. Groundwater is divided into two types. The first is the shallow aquifers, developed in the alluvial deposits along the main wadi channels and the flood plains of drainage basins. Shallow aquifers are the only renewable water source in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, with an approximate annual recharge of 3.5 Bcm, with an estimated combined reserves of about 117.3 Bcm for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (A1-Alawi and Abdulrazzak, 1994). The shallow alluvial groundwater is used extensively for domestic and irrigation purposes. Along coastal areas, seawater intrusion is a common problem.

WATER RESOURCES

Prevailing Climate The Arabian Peninsula is characterized by extremely arid climate. With the exception of the coastal strips and mountain ranges, the Peninsula is largely desert. It is characterized by irregular, scanty rainfall of less than 100 mm/y and high evaporation rates exceeding 3,000 mm/y (Table 1). More details on the Arabian Peninsula climate and its

Table 1: Available water rresources in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (1995).

Country

Bahrain Kuwait

Annual Rainfall (mm)

Annual Evaporation (mm)

Conventional (Mcm) Surface Groundwater Runoff 1 Recharge 2 Used

Non-Conventional (Mcm) Desalination Treated Wastewater Agricultural Drainage Capacity Produced Capacity Produced 3 Water

80 110

1,650-2,050 1,900-3,500

-

-2 -2

239 405

75 475

56 402

58.4 193

55.2 95

20-300 75

1,900-3,000 2,000-2,700

1,450 -

955 50

1,223 286

51 185

34 126

>30 >105

26 103

Saudi Arabia 70-500 3,500-4,500 UAE 89 3,900-4,050

3,210 150

3,850 125

17,000 1,615

>875 704

795 385

>667 >108

526 102

30

Total

4,8101

4,980

20,768

2,365

1,798

>1,161

907

30

Oman Qatar

(1) Most are seasonalflow of wadi systems;(2) Rechargeto aquifers occurs by underflowfromequivalentaquifers in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain = 90-110 Mcm/y, Kuwait= 58-117 Mcm/y;and (3) Reusedtreated wastewatervolumeis only 392 Mcm,used mainlyin irrigation,the remainsare used eitherfor recharge purposes or disposed off to the sea. Sources: compiled data from Al-Alawi and Abdulrazzak 1994; FAO 1997; Al-Zubari 1997; and official country reports for the period 1996-1999.

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Groundwater also occurs in the deep sedimentary aquifers. This deep groundwater is non renewable fossil groundwater that is thousands of years old dating from the rainy Pleistocene and Pliocene geological periods. Deep groundwater reserves are estimated at about 2,175 Bcm with the major part (1,919 Bcm) located in Saudi Arabia. Annual recharge to deep aquifers in the Gulf Cooperation Council is estimated at 1.5 Bcm per year (A1-Alawi and Abdulrazzak, 1994). The quality of the deep aquifers varies greatly, being suitable for domestic use in only few areas. Most of the water from these deep aquifers is used for agricultural purposes. At present, annual groundwater abstraction from groundwater is about 21 Bcm (Table 1), with annual groundwater recharge of about 5 Bcm. A1-Turbak and A1-Dhowalia (1996) estimated that as of 1995 about 35% of the non-renewable groundwater resources in Saudi Arabia have been depleted. Mining of the groundwater has resulted in continuous and sharp declines in groundwater levels and severe quality deterioration due to seawater intrusion and deep brines up-flow (UNESCWA 1999a; FAO, 1997). In addition, over-irrigation and surface dumping of partially treated and untreated wastewater has generated large volumes of contaminated waters that have increased the pollution levels of shallow aquifers (A1-Zubari, 2000).

Desalination Desalination of seawater began in the mid fifties and has expanded very rapidly. At present, municipal water supplies in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries rely mainly on desalinized seawater, which is used either directly or blended with groundwater. As of 1995 total capacity of desalination plants (including those under-construction) was more than 2.36 Bcm/y (Table 1), with total actual produced water of about 1.8 Bcm/y. Desalination costs range from 0.25-1.0 US$/m 3 for brackish groundwater and 1.4-8.0 US$/m 3 for seawater (UNESCWA, 1999b). It is expected that the total desalination capacity of the region will be more than 3 Bcm by the year 2020 (Ismail, 1995). Desalinization has several major disadvantages: relatively high cost, short operational life (15-25 years) and dependence on fossil fuel. Additionally, desalination negatively impacts the environment through air pollution by emitted oxides and seawater and marine life pollution by rejected brines, which have elevated temperatures, increased salt concentration and may

contain residual elements.

treatment chemicals

and trace

Treated Wastewater

Wastewater treatment in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries constitutes an increasing water source. In the early eighties, most of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries completed sewage water treatment facilities and urban sewage networks for most of the large cities. Almost all of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries now have modern treatment facilities with tertiary and advanced treatment capabilities. The total design capacity of the major wastewater treatment facilities is about 1.2 Bcm/y. This represents no more than 31% of the total municipal water usage of about 3.6 Bcm/y. Wastewater losses to the groundwater cause water table rise in urban areas (e.g., Riyadh and Kuwait Cities) and pollution of the shallow aquifer. Discharge of untreated wastewater represents a health hazards to the coastlines and the marine environment. Total treated wastewater in 1995 was about 0.9 Bcm/y. Reused treated wastewater is approximately 0.4 Bcm/y, i.e., about 45% of total treated, and about 10% of all wastewater resources available. Treated wastewater are used mainly for urban uses (irrigating gardens, parks, and road ornamentals), fodder crops irrigation, and highway landscaping (A1-Zubari, 1997). The remainder is dumped at wadis to infiltrate the shallow aquifers or to the sea. All of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries have ambitious plans for the expansion in the utilization of reclaimed wastewater as a strategically alternative source to meet their future demands of irrigation water and to reduce groundwater abstraction (A1Zubari, 1997).

Agricultural Drainage Water In general, recycled agricultural drainage water is not included within the water resources management programs in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The exception is Saudi Arabia. At A1-Hassa Oasis in Saudi Arabia, about 30 Mcm/y of drainage water mixed with groundwater is reused for agriculture purposes. This has had the advantage that it helped in alleviating the stress on groundwater, increased water use efficiency, and helped in solving the problem of water logging in the Oasis (A1-Kuwaiti et al., 1999). Agricultural drainage water reuse has future potential. It is anticipated that more recycled drainage water will be used in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

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STATUS OF POPULATION G R O W T H A N D

example, in Saudi Arabia the Agricultural sector grew at a rate of 12% per annum between 1979 and 1991 (A1-Sheikh, 2001). This growth was made possible through governmental subsidy and incentive programs. The water requirements to satisfy this increased level of agricultural production was met through groundwater mining of the deep aquifers. Unregulated pumping coupled with lack of enforcement of rules against unlawful drilling, poor irrigation practices (irrigation efficiency 30-50%), and lack of agricultural water tariffs has resulted in excessive agricultural water consumption. Furthermore, population increase and urbanisation in the past three decades have caused municipal water needs to increase at rates that have exceeded the rate of increase of desalinized seawater production. These needs are exaggerated by the lack of effective conservation programs, inadequate tariffs and charges for water use, and excessive leakage from municipal supply networks, leading to high per capita water consumption rates in the domestic sector. The total water used for all purposes in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in 1995 amounted to about 26 Bcm (Table 3). Currently the agricultural sector takes about 85% of the available water resources, followed by the municipal sector at 14%, and industry accounting for less than 2%. In terms of resources share, these requirements are satisfied mainly by groundwater resources by about 90%, and are supplemented by desalinated water by about 7.8%, and treated wastewater by about 1.7%.

WATER DEMAND

Population growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries is a major issue affecting all sustainable socio-economic development. The estimated total population of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in 1995 was about 25.5 million (UNSPD, 1997), with an average growth rate of 3.7% (Arab Fund, 1995). This thought to be the highest in the world. The large increase in the population is due to marked improvement in the standard of living and better health of the population as well the influx of a large number of expatriates. Latest figures (1997) on expatriate population in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries range from 25% to 85% of the total population. Furthermore, population policies that have been adopted in some countries of the region during the last three decades encouraged population growth through various forms of subsidies and incentives. Social traditions, appropriate economic climate and religious beliefs played an important role in population growth, which became difficult to control at later stage. Population projections for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries over the period of 1995-2025 are given in Table 2. It is anticipated that the total population of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will reach about 57 million by the year 2025 (UNSPD, 1997). In the past two decades, food security, or food self-sufficiency desires have prompted decisionmakers in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries to encourage increased agriculture production. For

Table 2. Projected population in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Year Country

Percentage 2025/1995)

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Bahrain

557

618

671

717

766

816

863

155

Kuwait

1 691

1 966

2 192

2 390

2 576

2 752

2 904

172

Oman

2 207

2 717

3 302

3 986

4 752

5 610

6 538

296

Qatar

548

599

648

693

734

764

782

143

Saudi Arabia

18 255

21 661

25 255

29 222

33 483

37 919

42 363

232

UAE

2 210

2 444

2 660

2 869

3 049

3 185

3 297

149

Total

25 468

30 005

34 728

39 877

45 360

51 046

56 747

223

Source: UNSPD 1997.

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Table 3. Water use in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (1995). Country

Municipal Industry Agriculture Total (Mcm) (Mcm) ( M c m ) (Mcm)

Bahrain

107

19

161

287

Kuwait

297

13

323

633

Oman

85

6

1,150

1,241

Qatar

85

17

337

439

2,387

193

18,575

21,155

UAE

600

73

1,539

2,212

Total

3,561

321

22,085

25,967

383

34.5

2,376

2,793

13.7

1.3

85.0

Saudi Arabia

Rate of water use (L/d/cap) % of water use

Sources: Data from verified Country reports, GCC 1996, UNSPD 1997, FAO 1997.

Except for Oman, all Gulf Cooperation Council countries have renewable water of less than 1000 m3/y per capita, the benchmark established to identify chronic water scarcity (WRI/UNEP/UNDP/WB, 1996). The overall average for renewable water for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries is about 466 m3/y per capita (Table 4) versus the per capita water use of

1,020 m3/y (1995). The per capita water deficit is about 554 m3/y provided mainly by mining groundwater reserves. The water stress index (defined as percentage of renewable water resources versus actually used), is over 100% in five of the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Estimated groundwater mining rates, in Mcm, are in Bahrain at 100, Kuwait 200, Oman 240, Qatar 140, Saudi Arabia 13,558, and United Arab Emirates 1,495 (FAO, 1997). Comprehensive water policies and plans to assess, develop, protect, and manage water resources (with the exception of Oman) are still lacking in most of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The present policies are fragmented and stress economic development without consideration to water deficit issue. Agriculture was greatly expanded to promote food self-sufficiency, without regard to the limited availability of water. Furthermore, water supplies were developed and augmented without concurrent conservation programs to reduce water consumption, or cost recovery plans. This was compounded by the institutional weakness of water and land management authorities, multiplication and overlap of water agencies and lack of coordination among them, inadequate technical and financial resources, and lack of public participation. It should be noted that some countries have recently started preparing their national water resources management strategy plans (e.g., Saudi Arabia).

Table 4. Per capita water share and water use in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (1995).

Population (1000)

Available water resources (1000Mcm)

Exploited water resource (1000Mcm)

Bahrain

557

0.243

0.287

437

Kuwait

1,691

0.616

0.633

Oman

2,207

2.486

Qatar

548

Saudi Arabia

Country

Per Capita water share (m3/year)

Per Capita water use (m3/year)

Deficit (m3/year)

Water Stress Index (%)

515

-78

118

364

374

-10

103

1.241

1,126

562

564

50

0.340

0.439

620

801

-181

130

18,255

7.092

21.155

388

1,159

-770

300

UAE

2,210

1.087

2.212

492

1,001

-509

203

Total

25,468

11.864

25.967

466

1,020

-554

219

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W. K. AL-ZUBARI

FUTURE WATER DEMAND Projections of the total water demand in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries are that the 1995 total annual water demand of 26 Bcm will grow to about 49.4 Bcm by the year 2025 (Figure 1). Future available water resources in 2025 will under the most optimistic projections not exceed 17 Bcm (groundwater recharge = 5 Bcm/y; desalinated seawater = 3 Bcm/y; reuse of treated wastewater =4.2 Bcm/y assuming that 50% of treated wastewater is reused; surface water = 4.8 Bcrn/y assuming that all surface waters will be harvested and utilized). It is clear that available water resources cannot satisfy future water demands, and that the water deficit will continue to increase and may reach about 31 Bcm by the year 2025, if the present trends of population growth and water consumption persisted. Under these conditions, further over-exploitation and mining of groundwater resources will become inevitable to satisfy the increasing water requirements in the region, with the negative impacts of rapid depletion of aquifer storage and deteriorating water quality and salinization of agricultural lands, leading eventually to the loss of these resources. Under these circumstances it will be difficult, if not impossible, to maintain the present emphasis on maximum food production and selfsufficiency, and that widespread import of foodstuffs will become necessary. Clearly, there is a need for a review of the present water resources policies in the region, to be followed by positive steps towards managing and rationalizing water demands, and imposing realistic controls on water use. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have been making great efforts in developing additional water sources and augmenting their conventional and non-conventional water supply. These efforts are represented by the extensive installation of desalination plants, expansion in wastewater reuse, and constructing dams to capture and store surface runoff for irrigation and enhancing shallow aquifer recharge. Almost all the efforts to date have been on the supply side. On the other hand, conservation and demand management have not received much attention. Conservation measures should be enforced on the agricultural sector, the largest water consumer in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and where major

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and effective saving can be achieved. Irrigation efficiencies are very low at 30-45% levels, resulting from the widespread use of traditional irrigation practices, lack of monitoring and tariffs for irrigation water, and the planting of crops with high water requirements. In the domestic sector, present per capita water use is considered high, averaging 383 L/d, and reaches in some countries more than 740 L/d, mainly due to lack of public awareness and low water tariffs that do not discourage excessive water use or waste. These issues are aggravated by a general weakness among the institutions dealing with water affairs, inadequate technical capabilities and training, and from unsatisfactory coordination with other concerned water authorities. Table 5 summarizes the prevailing problems and critical issues in the water sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Programs related to demand management and conservation as well as institutional reforms have been implemented recently by some Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Example conservation measures implemented include: in Saudi Arabia reduction of fuel and agricultural subsidies, and consolidating water resources agencies under one responsible authority; in Bahrain, metering of groundwater wells and approval of plans for implementing irrigation water tariff, changing crop pattem to higher water use efficiencies; in Oman, groundwater wells regulations and stringent permitting system. Additionally, most Gulf Cooperation Council countries subsidize modem irrigation techniques and protected agriculture in addition to public awareness campaigns. These demand management efforts remain as fragmented measures and are not consistent with the requirement of an integrated water resources management approach. Figure 2 illustrates the observed trends in per capita total water consumption for the period 1980-2000, as a percentage change to 1980 consumption rates. The figure indicates per capita total water consumption has stabilized in most Gulf Cooperation Council countries and has even dropped in Saudi Arabia and Oman. However, total water consumption continues to increase (Figure 1). There is an obvious need for water policy and strategy formulation as well as an appropriate drastic measures and major shifts in the current policies of population and food security.

Alternative Water Policies for the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

Table 5. Summary of the prevailing problems and critical issues in the water sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries Problem/Issue

Evidence

Source

Impact

Limited Water Resources

9 Decrease of per capita available water with time

9 Prevailing Aridity 9 Fast population growth 9 Adopted food self-sufficiency policies

9 Slows down socioeconomic development plans

Inefficient Water Use

9 Irrigation losses reaching up to 55% 9 Excessive leakage from supply networks 9 Wasteful water use in the domestic sector

9 Extensive traditional irrigation practices/Agricultural lands tenure system/inappropriate cropping patterns 9 Lack of consumer awareness and participation 9 Lack of realistic pricing and stringent regulation 9 Old water supply networks/No sufficient funds and programs for maintenance and leak detection

9 Excessive losses of available water

Internal Water Allocation Conflicts

9 Increasing competition among sectorial users, particularly between the agricultural and municipal sectors

9 Growing sectorial water demands 9 Limited water resources

9 Increasing water scarcity

Water Quality Deterioration with Time

9 Groundwater levels decline 9 Groundwater quality deterioration by seawater and deep connate water intrusion 9 Contamination of shallow aquifers by untreated/partially treated wastewaters and irrigation water agro-chemicals 9 Agricultural lands salinization

9 Loss of groundwater resources 9 Spread of water related diseases 9 Land degradation and loss 9 General negative impact on environment

Inferior Quality of Services

9 Lack of sewage collection system in large urban areas and lack of treatment capacity 9 Shallow water table in urban areas 9 Water related diseases 9 Groundwater pollution 9 Duplication of efforts and conflict in decisions 9 Inefficient water development and management

9 Over-exploitation of groundwater 9 Discharge of domestic and industrial untreated/partially treated affluents 9 Discharge of industrial affluent in domestic wastewater networks 9 Lack of strict penalties on polluters 9 Insufficient studies for the management and protection of groundwater resources 9 Excessive irrigation techniques 9 Shortage of financial allocations 9 Growing population 9 Fast pace of Urbanization

9 Fragmented water authorities and lack of coordination 9 Ill defined responsibilities 9 Incompetent water authorities, and inadequate technical capabilities and training

9 Weak sectorial water policies 9 Poor water development plans and action programs 9 Inferior water services

Weak Water Institutions

ALTERNATIVE WATER POLICIES TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Three alternative water management scenarios are analyzed in this paper and evaluated as to their effect on the water balance required to ensure sustainable water development in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries for the period 1995-

9 Negative general impact on development and welfare

2025. The year 1995 was used as reference year due to the availability of consistent data for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. In the three scenarios the assumption is made that there will be no change in the population policies in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The UN population projections are used (UNSPD, 1997). The three scenarios are as follows:

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W. K. AL-ZUBARI

Scenario 1- B a s e l i n e (Business as Usual)

9 No change in the pattern of the per capita water use in the domestic and industrial sectors, i.e. the increase in the per capita water consumption in these two sectors will continue to grow. 9 No further development of current water resources (1995). 9 Continuation of agricultural policies aimed at maximum food production. 9 Improving agricultural productivity per unit of water to achieve 20% saving in agricultural water demand by 2025. Scenario 2 - S u p p l y

Augmentation

9 Increase surface and groundwater resources for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries by 100 Mcrn/y through artificial recharge and water harvesting yielding a total increase of 3 Bcm by the year 2025. 9 Increase desalination capacity gradually to reach 3.26 Bcrn/y by the year 2025. 9 Increase recycled wastewater gradually to 4.2 Bcrn/y by the year 2025 (50% of domestic water demand in 2025). 9 Increase reuse of agricultural drainage water by 5% every 5 years, to reach about 40 Mcm by the year 2025. 9 Other assumptions of water consumption rates increase in the domestic and industrial sectors, policies of maximum food self-sufficiency, improvement in agricultural productivity per unit of water, as in Scenario 1. Scenario

3 - Supply

Augmentation and Policy

Remedies 9 Development and increase of surface and groundwater resources as in scenario 2. 9 Maintaining the 1995 rates of per capita water use in the domestic and industrial sectors, and achieving gradual decrease in per capita water use in the municipal sector to reach 300 L/d through rationalization measures, review of water tariffs, and awareness. This would result in a saving of 3.2 Bcm by the year 2025 as compared to Scenario 1. 9 Further, gradual decrease in the agricultural sector water consumption is achieved by increasing the efficiency of irrigation, changing crop pattern to crops with less water requirements, metering and reviewing the price of irrigation water, and improving wastewater management. This would

162

result in a decrease in the agricultural total water demand by about 5.2 Bcm by the year 2025 and a total water demand reduction in all sectors of about 8.4 Bcm by the year 2025. Scenario 1 represents business as usual and is the most pessimistic scenario. It represents the worstcase scenario. Justification for its consideration is based on: 1) most of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries are located in an extremely arid climate and that most of the easy and promising water sources have been exploited. Additional water resource development will require heavy investments, laborious investigations and intensive research programs; 2) the Gulf Cooperation Council countries have been affected strongly by two regional wars in the last two decades (Iraqi-Iranian war, Iraqi-Kuwaiti war). No permanent settlement has been reached and these wars have drastically affected the economy of the region and have upset many socio-economic development plans. This has resulted in the postponement of many water development schemes (added to that the current US-Afghanistan war); and 3) The national economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries depend on oil and oil-related industries that are sensitive to the fluctuating international oil prices and which may impact negatively their socio-economic development planning. The major water saving in this scenario is a reduction of 20% in the agricultural water demand by 2025. This saving would be accomplished by agricultural research in the field of maximizing agricultural productivity per unit of water, and applications of appropriate technologies, including biotechnology. Scenario 2 represents the supply augmentation strategy. It takes into consideration the intensive efforts in increasing and augmenting water supply in both conventional and non-conventional water resources in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. These efforts could eventually yield an additional 7.8 Bcm (3 Bcm conventional water resources and 4.8 Bcm non-conventional water resources) by the year 2025. Scenario 3 is the supply augmentation and policy remedies strategy. In scenario 3 water demands are reduced through formulated water policies that emphasis conservation and demand management. Scenario 3 requires extensive research, investigation, development, and reform programs for implementation of desired actions in the various areas of integrated water resources management (analysis and planning, legal and institutional, and

Alternative Water Policies for the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

economic considerations and tools), in addition to needed associated programs and projects (Table 6). The overall objective of the proposed water policies outlined in Table 6 is to secure long term water supplies while meeting strict criteria for socioeconomic, financial and environmental sustainability and public health requirements. It should be noted that all scenarios do not take into account the impact of groundwater overdraft on the quality of groundwater withdrawn, i.e., it assumes withdrawn water will be usable. Mining and over-exploitation of shallow and deep aquifers will be associated with an inevitable deterioration of water quality and loss of groundwater usefulness, in addition to salinization of agricultural lands. The results of the three Scenarios are shown in Table (7). In Scenario 1 (Business as Usual), the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will suffer from acute water shortages. The water deficit will increase to about 36 Bcm by the year 2025. Percentage of deficit to water demand will increase f r o m - 4 7 . 8 % in 1995 to -72.5% in 2025. In scenario 2 (Supply Augmentation), the water deficit will be slightly

reduced to 28 Bcm in 2025, while the percentage deficit in the water balance to total demand will increase f r o m - 4 7 . 8 % in 1995 to -56.7% in 2025. In scenario 3 (Supply augmentation and policy remedies), the water deficit will continue to experience an increasing water deficit, from 11.2 Bcm in 1995 to 16.5 Bcm by 2025. The percentage water balance to demand will, more or less, level off at 45%. It is evident that scenario 3 is to be preferred and constitutes an appropriate base for an alternative strategy to secure a degree of sustainable development of water resources. Even so, it is clear that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will continue to experience a deficit in their water resources if the goal of food security are adhered to, and population growth rates continue as projected. This will result in mining about 400 Bcm of shallow and deep groundwater resources during the study period. This will also result in the deterioration of pumped groundwater quality and may limit the uses of this water.

Table 6. Proposed policy matrix for the water sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

Policy

Planning and analysis Aspects

Legal and Institutional Aspects

Priority of Water Supply for Domestic, Agriculture, and Industry, respectively

Water resources assessment& development; Population growth projection; Water demand projections; Water quantity and quality monitoring and prediction

Protection zones for surface water, domestic supply wellfields, springs, and catchment areas; Training and capacity building of staff; New competent authorities; Controlling illicit connections; groundwater wells regulation

Rational Water Use

Mapping municipal and industrial water supply connections to control consumption and leakage; Mapping domestic wastewater collection and distribution networks; Determining and locating abstraction wells for agricultural, industrial, and domestic purposes

Regulation to support water saving and protection measures; Detection and control of illicit connections; Full application of metering system; Adequate institutions and staff training for efficient and proper water use control

Economic considerations and Instruments

Water viewed as an economic commodity as much as possible; Wide application of metering system; Increasing water tariffs for high segments of water demands; Provision funds for M&O and new water facilities; Strict regulation and penalties; Full stakeholders participation Proper water pricing in all consuming sectors; Rotational check of metering system; Periodic review of water supply costing

Projects and programs

Hydrological & hydrogeological studies; Continuous maintenance of water facilities and networks; Construction of water purification plants and desalination plants for future needs; Planned information and education campaign to change consumers behaviour

Application of water saving technologies; Studies for rational water utilisation in different consuming sectors; Planned information and education campaigns to change consumer behaviour; Regular calibration of meters; Leakage detection and control; Regular maintenance and rehabilitation of network

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W. K. AL-ZUBARI

Groundwater Management and Protection

Comprehensive monitoring of groundwater quality and water levels; Use of mathematical modeling studies in the management and protection of groundwater resources

Increasing Water Use Continuous monitoring Efficiency of Water use for different sectors; Conducting studies on consumptive use in agricultural sector; Extensive application of water saving agricultural schemes

Water Pollution Control and Environmental Protection

Standardisation of drinking water quality compatible with the region conditions, and industrial effluents discharged; Improving water quality monitoring systems; Provision of funds for studies

Institutional Capacity Human resources Building development and training of staff; Support research institutes & universities capabilities in the field of water resources; Application of new technologies for administration and management affairs; Modelling for water resources development & management

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Controlling pumping rate to prevent mining the reserve; Coordination between concerned institutions for efficient management; Application of wells metering system; Adoptation of detailed well drilling licensing; Stringent penalties for groundwater contamination; Training in the field of groundwater resources management and protection and mathematical modelling tools Metering system for different water uses; Licensing system of well drilling and abstraction rates; Strict regulations and penalties to control illegal abstraction; User Group/community participation

Stringent legislation for water pollution; Restrict activities in watershed areas and wellfield zones (defining wellhead protection areas); Regulations for the treatment of industrial effluents before discharge; Competent authority for water pollution control Consolidation of water authorities in one agency; Updating water legislation and enforcement; Coordination between water-related administrations; Defining clear responsibilities and duties of water administrations and minimizing overlaps; Integrated programs for water use management

Changing irrigation charge system to be based on volume of drawn water; Cancellation of subsidies for well drilling; Incentives for application of appropriate agricultural water-saving schemes (crops, techniques, and water use efficiency); Reviewing water tariff for commercial, domestic, and industrial abstraction

Application of agricultural water-saving schemes; Update studies on groundwater availability for sustainable water management; Artificial recharge studies and projects; Public awareness campaigns and educational programs for farmers (major groundwater users)

Irrigation charges to be based on water use efficiencies; Incentives for modem irrigation techniques; Periodic review of irrigation charges; Increasing domestic water supply tariff for high segments of domestic and industrial water consumption

Choice of appropriate crops,; Application of water saving and reuse technologies; Increasing the efficiency of distribution networks & irrigation conveyance; Extension services and awareness programs; Reuse of wastewater and irrigation drainage water; Regular maintenance of water supply networks Expansion and improving of wastewater collection networks; Environmental impact assessment for water projects; Education and public awareness campaigns; Wastewater treatment plants in big communities & industrial complexes

Applying the "polluter pays" principle; Pollution charges to be assessed proportional to volume and quality of effluents discharged to the environment; Control of industrial intake & discharge points; Economicenvironmental research on wastewater treatment and reuse Financial support for upgrading institutional capability; Modifying employment regulations, incentives should replace the current civil service rules; Improving Accounting and costing systems; Budget control systems

Training program for skilled technicians and professionals; Looking at options for privatising certain services to increase water use efficiency and public participation

Alternative Water Policies for the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

Increasing Water Use Efficiency

Continuous monitoring of Water use for different sectors; Conducting studies on consumptive use in agricultural sector; Extensive application of water saving agricultural schemes

Metering system for different water uses; Licensing system of well drilling and abstraction rates; Strict regulations and penalties to control illegal abstraction; User Group/community participation

Irrigation charges to be based on water use efficiencies; Incentives for modern irrigation techniques; Periodic review of irrigation charges; Increasing domestic water supply tariff for high segments of domestic and industrial water consumption

Water Pollution Control and Environmental Protection

Standardisation of drinking water quality compatible with the region conditions, and industrial effluents discharged; Improving water quality monitoring systems; Provision of funds for studies

Stringent legislation for water pollution; Restrict activities in watershed areas and wellfield zones (defining wellhead protection areas); Regulations for the treatment of industrial effluents before discharge; Competent authority for water pollution control

Applying the "polluter pays" principle; Pollution charges to be assessed proportional to volume and quality of effluents discharged to the environment; Control of industrial intake & discharge points; Economicenvironmental research on wastewater treatment and reuse Financial support for upgrading institutional capability; Modifying employment regulations, incentives should replace the current civil service rules; Improving Accounting and costing systems; Budget control systems

Institutional Capacity Human resources Building development and training of staff; Support research institutes & universities capabilities in the field of water resources; Application of new technologies for administration and management affairs; Modelling for water resources development & management

Consolidation of water authorities in one agency; Updating water legislation and enforcement; Coordination between water-related administrations; Defining clear responsibilities and duties of water administrations and minimizing overlaps; Integrated programs for water use management

Choice of appropriate crops,; Application of water saving and reuse technologies; Increasing the efficiency of distribution networks & irrigation conveyance; Extension services and awareness programs; Reuse of wastewater and irrigation drainage water; Regular maintenance of water supply networks Expansion and improving of wastewater collection networks; Environmental impact assessment for water projects; Education and public awareness campaigns; Wastewater treatment plants in big communities & industrial complexes

Training program for skilled technicians and professionals; Looking at options for privatising certain services to increase water use efficiency and public participation

Table 7. Water balance in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Bcm), alternative water policies results. Scenario / Y e a r

1995

2000

Scenario 1: Baseline scenario (business as usual) Available Water Resources 13.57 13.57 Total Water Demand 26.00 29.22 Water Balance -12.43 -15.66 % W.Balance/Demand -47.81 -53.58

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

13.57 32.52 -18.96 -58.29

13.57 36.19 -22.63 -62.52

13.57 40.24 -26.67 -66.29

13.57 44.86 -31.30 -69.76

13.57 49.38 -35.82 -72.53

15.85 32.52 -16.67 -51.26

17.10 36.19 -19.09 -52.74

18.44 40.24 -21.79 -54.16

19.87 44.86 -25.00 -55.72

21.36 49.38 -28.02 -56.74

15.85 29.02 -13.17 -45.38

17.10 30.81 -13.71 -44.48

18.44 32.88 -14.43 -43.90

19.87 35.44 -15.57 43.94

21.36 37.81 -16.45 -43.50

Scenario 2: Supply Augmentation Available Water Resources Total Water Demand Water Balance % W.Balance/Demand

13.57 26.00 -12.43 -47.81

14.68 29.22 -14.54 -49.77

Scenario 3: Supply Augmentation and Policy Remedies Available Water Resources Total Water Demand Water Balance % W.Balance/Demand

13.57 26.00 -12.43 -47.81

14.68 27.51 -12.84 -46.65

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W. K. AL-ZUBARI

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Population pressures and current agricultural policies for food self-sufficiency constitute the core problem in the management of water resources in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Currently, all the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council are experiencing large water deficits compensated for by mining of groundwater resources, installation of expensive desalination plant, and the expansion in the reuse of treated wastewater. The present imbalance between the available water resources and water demands is chronic, and is expected to escalate in the future, unless positive and major positive steps are taken soon to rationalize and manage water demands, increase and augment water supply, and impose realistic controls on water use. A major review and shift in water policies in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, emphasizing conservation and demand management, are suggested and outlined in this paper, with the overall objectives of securing long term water supplies while meeting strict criteria for socio-economic, financial and environmental sustainability and public health requirements. The successful implementation of these policies would be a milestone for paving the long intricate path towards coping with the water scarcity in this arid region. However, failure to adequately address the problem of the growing water imbalance would result in severe negative impacts in both the quantity and quality of water supplies, widening food deficits, and deterioration of the standard of living. Furthermore, unless major shift in the population policies are implemented, the water problem will become one of the major constraints in future development of the countries of the region. In this study, a general water resources policy with its main management components is outlined for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. It is suggested that each country in the Gulf Cooperation Council appoint a national water council (if not existing yet) whose members are ministers responsible for water resources development, management, and utilization, to coordinate at the highest political level, and to formulate the overall national water policy of the country. A technical body (secretariat/committee), to be suggested by the council, and composed of senior scientists, economists, engineers, lawyers from concerned ministries and authorities, university and research institutes, and public agencies and stakeholders including (if the country political system permits) representatives of water users would help the council

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and ensure fair institutional and inter-ministerial coordination at the national level. The water strategy should consider the water sector development, demand, protection, and sustainable use in the medium and long term (15-30 years). Data and information are needed to adequately form the base on which the strategy would be formulated with possible suitable options. The work plan would include several stages with a number of parameters relevant to each stage. These are: 1) Collection and review of existing data and information; 2) Review and evaluation of previous development studies; 3) Current conditions of water resources, population growth, socio-economic conditions, land use, and water utilization and related legislation in force; 4) Evaluation of water resources potential; 5) Water demands forecast; 6) Water resources development planning framework; 7) Water resources management, institutional reform, water facilities; 8) estimate of total cost; 9) Evaluation of strategy formulation: financial, economic, and social analyses. According to the evaluation results, the selected options and alternatives for strategy formulation could be decided and programs, water projects, tariffs, new technologies, and legal and institutional reforms could be recommended. Water policies are usually projected over longer time periods and have normally unforeseen impacts which is difficult to measure in details and my not be implemented as proposed, but respond to current need and priorities. Water policies may require continuous monitoring for progress, re-evaluation or even revision of priorities that meet obstacles, and therefore, monitoring policy actions would benefit policy management. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This study was prepared within the framework of UNEP Global Environmental Outlook (GEO) Project, and was funded by the United Nations Environment Program, The Regional Office for West Asia (UNEP/ROWA). The author would like to thank the water professionals in the Arab Center for Studies of Arid Zones and Deserts (ACSAD) and the Arabian Gulf University (AGU) for their contribution and help towards completing this study. REFERENCES

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Arab Fund, 1995. the Economic Arabic Report, September 1995. FAO, 1997. Irrigation in the Near East in Figures. Water Report No.9, Rome. Gulf Cooperation Council, 1996, Economic Report. No. 11. GCC General Secretariat, Saudi Arabia. Intemational Desalination Association (IDA), 2000. IDA Worldwide Desalting Plants Inventory CDPAM2000. Wangnick Consulting. Ismail, N., 1995. Strategic projection for planning and management of water resources in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Attaawun, vol. 10, pp. 47-62 (in Arabic). UNESCWA, 1999a. Groundwater Quality Control and Conservation in the ESCWA Region. Report No. E/ESCWA/ENR/1999/1, ESCWA, Beirut. UNESCWA, 1999b. Development of Freshwater Resources in the Rural Areas of the ESCWA Region Using Non-Conventional Techniques. Report No. E/ESCWA/ENR/1999/16, UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, Beirut. UNSPD, 1997. World Urbanization Prospects: The 1996 Revision (Annex Tables). United Nations Secretariat Population Division. New York. WRI/UNEP/UNDP/WB, 1996, World Resources 19961997. World Resources Institute, UNEP, UNDP, and the World Bank. Oxford University Press, New York and London.

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