An analysis of short-term prediction of solar proton events in the ascending phase of solar cycle 23

Abstmcts

*Outflow in IRAS

activity

/ Chinese

Astronomy

of a young

23385+6053

YANG

and Astrophysics

stellar

object

Chuan-yi

24 (2000)

and thermal

& WU Yue-fang

397

394-398

properties

Shanghai

of the gas CAS,

Observatory,

Shanghai 200030 i2C0 J = 1 - 0 mapping observations were made towards IRAS 23385-l-6053. The broad line wings observed revealed the presence of high-velocity gas activity in this source, which is identified as an outflow for the first time. The outflow parameters derived and the analysis of its driving source show it to be a massive, energetic outflow associated with a young stellar object (YSO) of very high mass. Using CO line measurements aa a 2’~ probe, the thermal properties of the ambient gas are also investigated. A comparison between TIC and TD shows that near this IRAS source the standard Goldreich-Kwan picture of energetic is not satisfied. Therefore alternative heating mechanisms are discussed. (Full English text in AApS 2000, 20, 141~-147) Power spectrum

YANG

Zhi-liang,

analysis

TIAN

UrGersit y, Beijing

of magnetic

Li-rong

fields in a solar quiet region

& TONG

Yi Department

of Astronomy,

JING Hai-rong, Beijing

Normal

1008 75

Using the high quality magnetograms acquired at Huairou Solar Observing Station of Beijing Astronomical Observatory on 1998 Oct. 3, we constructed the power spectrum for small-scale obvious peaks

magnetic fields in a specified quiet region. The results in the spatial power spectrum at scales of supergranules

show that there are and mesogranules.

These peaks correspond to network and intranetwork magnetic fields with spatial periodic structure. The results also show that the negative polarity magnetic fields are dominant on the sides of supergranules. From the temporal power spectra we obtain the relationship between the lifetimes of network and intranetwork magnetic consistent with that between supergranules and mesogranules (AApS

fields, which we find to be obtained by other authors.

2000, 20, 164-170)

Prediction

of the developing

& GU Xiao-ma Prediction the Moscow

trend

of solar activity

of solar cycle 23

LI Ke-jun

Yunnan Observatory, CAS, Kunming 650011 of the developing trend of solar activity of solar cycle 23 has been done with

Neutron

Monitor

Pressure-Corrected

Values

(MNMPCV)

in this paper,

and

it is inferred here that solar cycle 23 should be one of moderate activity, similar to solar cycle 22. Here we predict that the solar activity should peak around 2001 with a maximum smoothed monthly mean sunspot number of 151 f 16. (AApS 2000, 20, 189-193) An

analysis

phase

of short-term

of solar cycle 23

prediction

ZHU Cui-lian

of solar proton Beijing

Astronomical

events

in the

Observatory,

ascending CAS, Beijing

100012 Six proton events are predicted in the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 23 (1997.111998.12), based on the results of a correlation analysis between the proton events and active regions in the descending phase of Solar Cycle 22 (1993-1995). Of the 6 events, 3 were predicted correctly, 1 was a false prediction, 1 was missed (event on the far side of the solar surface) and the last one has an uncertain status. The predictions of RWC-Beijing and WWA are compared and the result shows that the method of prediction used by us is very effective for the short-term prediction of proton events. ( AApS 2000, 20, 194-202)