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Analysis of energy consumption in Jordan
Energy Convers. Mgmt Vol. 36, No. I I, pp. 1063-1065, 1995
Pergamon
0196-8904(94)00080-8
ANALYSIS
OF
ENERGY
Copyright ~? 1995 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 0196-8904/95 $9.50 + 0.00
CONSUMPTION
IN JORDAN
A. T A M I M I College of Engineering, Jordan University of Science and Technology,Irbid, Jordan (Received 18 January 1994; receivedfor publication 15 December 1994)
Abstract--Energy consumption in Jordan was analysed and correlated over the last seven years for the period 1985-1992. The results were presented fairly by second or third degreepolynominalswith less than _+5% error. Jordan
Energy
Oil consumption
INTRODUCTION Jordan imports oil from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The oil is refined and processed in the Zarka Refinery which produces liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), gasoline, naphtha, jet fuel (avtur and avtag), kerosine, light gas oil (LGO) or Diesel, fuel oil and asphalt. The consumption of these fractions varies from year to year according to the socio-economic activities in the sectors of transportation (land and air), industry, electricity generation, space heating and road pavement. Jordan's energy situation and consumption were analysed and modeled in previous studies for the purpose of determining the doubling time and assessment of future needs [1, 2]. In this work, the primary energy consumption in Jordan over the period 1985-1992, was analysed and correlated with respect to the year 1985 as a reference year. The consumption of various oil fractions and sectors during this period is given in Tables 1 and 2 and Figs 1 and 2. The raw data were reported by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources in Jordan [3]. DATA ANALYSIS AND D I S C U S S I O N Energy consumption in the various sectors was expressed in units of equivalent-oil ton to make it easy for analysis and comparison. If the present population of Jordan is assumed to be 3.5 millions, then the annual per capita of primary energy consumption would be about one equivalent-oil ton, of which about one-third is consumed in the transportation sector, one-quarter in electricity generation and one-eighth in each of industrial and household applications. The rest represents the Zarka Refinery use and other miscellaneous applications. The average percentages of oil consumption in the sectors of transportation, illumination, household, industry, refinery use and miscellaneous applications are 32.1, 27.4, 9.7, 12.1, 6.1 and 12.6, respectively, as shown in Fig. 3. The transportation sector represents the major energy consuming sector, consuming about one-third (32.1%) of the oil bill. The electricity generation sector ranks second after the transportation sector. The industrial sector consumes about one-eighth (12.1%) of the oil bill, the same order of magnitude for the household and miscellaneous applications. The consumption of total energy, various oil fractions and the sectors of transportation, electricity generation, household and industry were correlated well by polynomials of the second or third order using a polynomial least squares fit generated by a computer. The error is less than _+5%. These correlations are expressed as follows: = A0 + Aj (Year) + A2(Year) 2. • - + &,(Year)" where Q is the annual energy consumption, the A~s are the polynomial coefficients and (Year) is the number of years counted starting from the reference year 1985. The values of the Ais are summarized in Table 3. 1063
TAMIMI:
1064
A N A L Y S I S O F E N E R G Y C O N S U M P T I O N IN J O R D A N
Table 1. Oil-fraction consumption over the period 1985-1992 ( x 103 ton) Year
LPG
Gasoline
Jet fuel
Kerosine
Diesel
Fuel oil
Asphalt
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
87.2 96.2 104.2 111.3 112.4 121.6 131.0 155.1
359.1 361.2 335.8 341.1 345.4 360.6 384.2 420.1
245.6 198.8 190.5 190.5 240.7 223.5 162.3 209.0
142.6 152.0 142.1 158.7 146.1 151.0 166.6 283.8
765.3 813.2 772.0 796.7 800.3 830.0 833.0 844.0
899.3 1100.4 1142.0 1107.7 1090.0 1142.0 1165.0 1417.0
125.4 128.3 142.2 135.1 99.2 52.0 109.0 120.0
Table 2. Energy consumption by various sectors (× 103 equ. oil ton) Year
Transportation
Industrial
Household
Electricity generation
Refinery use
Miscellaneous
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
972 939 957 969 1069 1077 1010 1093
338 355 368 381 355 394 394 488
245 263 270 294 289 304 343 463
692 748 834 829 868 920 957 1145
191 163 185 201 194 208 188 208
405 408 417 413 360 405 384 408
Table 3. The values of polynomial coefficients A0 Total energy Transportation Electricity generation Industry Household
At
A2
A3
-4.4865 2.5698 -3.4693 -1.6103 -1.399
× × × x x
107 107 107 107 107
9.783 -3.748 6.1906 3.0941 3.2066
x x × x x
104 104 104 104 10 -4
-64.41 18.194 -35.97 -18.91 -21.65
2,982 9.5632 2,116 1.125 1,4948
x × x x x
106 106 107 106 107
-3.007 -5.65 2.13 -2.92 -1,508
x × x x x
103 103 104 102 104
0.758 - 1.191 5.358 -0.564 3.8
LPG Gasoline Kerosine Diesel (LGO) Fuel oil
0.013 - 2 . 9 4 x 10 -3 6.845 x 10 -3 3.7 x 10 -3 4.56 x 10 -3
8.76 2.15 x 10 -4
1500 Fuel Oil
f 1000
Diesel (LGO)
o
.O' 500 -~ a
0~'0--
Gasoline •
O
~
0
~0~.._
~ 0
Kerosine Jet fuel Asphalt
0 1984
I
1986
1988
1990 Year
Fig. 1. Consumption of various oil fractions.
1992
1994
TAMIMI:
ANALYSIS OF E N E R G Y C O N S U M P T I O N IN J O R D A N
4000 --
/
3500 --
1065
Total
3000 -0 ~
2
2500 --
O
2000 --
% "0'
1500 -Electricity 1000
--
O ~ O ~ O ~ O
~A/A
~-O
..~ao~r~
~ Transportation
A' - ' ' ' ' - - A ~
" ~ 500
Industry
-~__--'-"- ~
0 1984
~
~>------~
Miscellaneous o Refinery
o
I
I
I
I
r
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
Year Fig. 2. Consumption of primary energy by various sectors. 12.6 Miscellaneous 32.1 Transportation 6.1 Refi
27.4 Electricity Gen I2.1
lnOustrial
9.7 Household Fig. 3. Sectorial percentage total energy.
The consumption of asphalt and jet fuel are widely scattered during the period of this study. Thus, no correlation was found to fit well the transient-consumption levels of these fractions. The same applies to the energy consumption by miscellaneous applications and refinery use. Acknowledgment--The author would like to thank Mr. Sameeh O'jailat, the Manager of the Jordanian rural Electrification Project, for his efforts in providing the raw data of energy consumption in Jordan.
REFERENCES
1. A. Tamimi and Z. Kodah Energy Convers. Mgmt 34, 427 (1993). 2. A. Tamimi, Energy Convers. Mgmt 34, 519 (1993). 3. Annual Report (draft), (1992).
Pergamon
0196-8904(94)00080-8
ANALYSIS
OF
ENERGY
Copyright ~? 1995 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 0196-8904/95 $9.50 + 0.00
CONSUMPTION
IN JORDAN
A. T A M I M I College of Engineering, Jordan University of Science and Technology,Irbid, Jordan (Received 18 January 1994; receivedfor publication 15 December 1994)
Abstract--Energy consumption in Jordan was analysed and correlated over the last seven years for the period 1985-1992. The results were presented fairly by second or third degreepolynominalswith less than _+5% error. Jordan
Energy
Oil consumption
INTRODUCTION Jordan imports oil from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The oil is refined and processed in the Zarka Refinery which produces liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), gasoline, naphtha, jet fuel (avtur and avtag), kerosine, light gas oil (LGO) or Diesel, fuel oil and asphalt. The consumption of these fractions varies from year to year according to the socio-economic activities in the sectors of transportation (land and air), industry, electricity generation, space heating and road pavement. Jordan's energy situation and consumption were analysed and modeled in previous studies for the purpose of determining the doubling time and assessment of future needs [1, 2]. In this work, the primary energy consumption in Jordan over the period 1985-1992, was analysed and correlated with respect to the year 1985 as a reference year. The consumption of various oil fractions and sectors during this period is given in Tables 1 and 2 and Figs 1 and 2. The raw data were reported by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources in Jordan [3]. DATA ANALYSIS AND D I S C U S S I O N Energy consumption in the various sectors was expressed in units of equivalent-oil ton to make it easy for analysis and comparison. If the present population of Jordan is assumed to be 3.5 millions, then the annual per capita of primary energy consumption would be about one equivalent-oil ton, of which about one-third is consumed in the transportation sector, one-quarter in electricity generation and one-eighth in each of industrial and household applications. The rest represents the Zarka Refinery use and other miscellaneous applications. The average percentages of oil consumption in the sectors of transportation, illumination, household, industry, refinery use and miscellaneous applications are 32.1, 27.4, 9.7, 12.1, 6.1 and 12.6, respectively, as shown in Fig. 3. The transportation sector represents the major energy consuming sector, consuming about one-third (32.1%) of the oil bill. The electricity generation sector ranks second after the transportation sector. The industrial sector consumes about one-eighth (12.1%) of the oil bill, the same order of magnitude for the household and miscellaneous applications. The consumption of total energy, various oil fractions and the sectors of transportation, electricity generation, household and industry were correlated well by polynomials of the second or third order using a polynomial least squares fit generated by a computer. The error is less than _+5%. These correlations are expressed as follows: = A0 + Aj (Year) + A2(Year) 2. • - + &,(Year)" where Q is the annual energy consumption, the A~s are the polynomial coefficients and (Year) is the number of years counted starting from the reference year 1985. The values of the Ais are summarized in Table 3. 1063
TAMIMI:
1064
A N A L Y S I S O F E N E R G Y C O N S U M P T I O N IN J O R D A N
Table 1. Oil-fraction consumption over the period 1985-1992 ( x 103 ton) Year
LPG
Gasoline
Jet fuel
Kerosine
Diesel
Fuel oil
Asphalt
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
87.2 96.2 104.2 111.3 112.4 121.6 131.0 155.1
359.1 361.2 335.8 341.1 345.4 360.6 384.2 420.1
245.6 198.8 190.5 190.5 240.7 223.5 162.3 209.0
142.6 152.0 142.1 158.7 146.1 151.0 166.6 283.8
765.3 813.2 772.0 796.7 800.3 830.0 833.0 844.0
899.3 1100.4 1142.0 1107.7 1090.0 1142.0 1165.0 1417.0
125.4 128.3 142.2 135.1 99.2 52.0 109.0 120.0
Table 2. Energy consumption by various sectors (× 103 equ. oil ton) Year
Transportation
Industrial
Household
Electricity generation
Refinery use
Miscellaneous
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
972 939 957 969 1069 1077 1010 1093
338 355 368 381 355 394 394 488
245 263 270 294 289 304 343 463
692 748 834 829 868 920 957 1145
191 163 185 201 194 208 188 208
405 408 417 413 360 405 384 408
Table 3. The values of polynomial coefficients A0 Total energy Transportation Electricity generation Industry Household
At
A2
A3
-4.4865 2.5698 -3.4693 -1.6103 -1.399
× × × x x
107 107 107 107 107
9.783 -3.748 6.1906 3.0941 3.2066
x x × x x
104 104 104 104 10 -4
-64.41 18.194 -35.97 -18.91 -21.65
2,982 9.5632 2,116 1.125 1,4948
x × x x x
106 106 107 106 107
-3.007 -5.65 2.13 -2.92 -1,508
x × x x x
103 103 104 102 104
0.758 - 1.191 5.358 -0.564 3.8
LPG Gasoline Kerosine Diesel (LGO) Fuel oil
0.013 - 2 . 9 4 x 10 -3 6.845 x 10 -3 3.7 x 10 -3 4.56 x 10 -3
8.76 2.15 x 10 -4
1500 Fuel Oil
f 1000
Diesel (LGO)
o
.O' 500 -~ a
0~'0--
Gasoline •
O
~
0
~0~.._
~ 0
Kerosine Jet fuel Asphalt
0 1984
I
1986
1988
1990 Year
Fig. 1. Consumption of various oil fractions.
1992
1994
TAMIMI:
ANALYSIS OF E N E R G Y C O N S U M P T I O N IN J O R D A N
4000 --
/
3500 --
1065
Total
3000 -0 ~
2
2500 --
O
2000 --
% "0'
1500 -Electricity 1000
--
O ~ O ~ O ~ O
~A/A
~-O
..~ao~r~
~ Transportation
A' - ' ' ' ' - - A ~
" ~ 500
Industry
-~__--'-"- ~
0 1984
~
~>------~
Miscellaneous o Refinery
o
I
I
I
I
r
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
Year Fig. 2. Consumption of primary energy by various sectors. 12.6 Miscellaneous 32.1 Transportation 6.1 Refi
27.4 Electricity Gen I2.1
lnOustrial
9.7 Household Fig. 3. Sectorial percentage total energy.
The consumption of asphalt and jet fuel are widely scattered during the period of this study. Thus, no correlation was found to fit well the transient-consumption levels of these fractions. The same applies to the energy consumption by miscellaneous applications and refinery use. Acknowledgment--The author would like to thank Mr. Sameeh O'jailat, the Manager of the Jordanian rural Electrification Project, for his efforts in providing the raw data of energy consumption in Jordan.
REFERENCES
1. A. Tamimi and Z. Kodah Energy Convers. Mgmt 34, 427 (1993). 2. A. Tamimi, Energy Convers. Mgmt 34, 519 (1993). 3. Annual Report (draft), (1992).