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Analysis of over-consumption of natural resources and the ecological trade deficit in China based on ecological footprints
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Analysis of over-consumption of natural resources and the ecological trade deficit in China based on ecological footprints Jixi Gao ∗ , Meirong Tian Nanjing Institute of Environmental Science, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Nanjing 210042, China
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history: Received 8 September 2014 Received in revised form 19 October 2015 Accepted 19 October 2015 Available online xxx Keywords: Ecological footprint Biological capacity Ecological deficit Ecological overshoot Nature resources
a b s t r a c t China has experienced unprecedented economic development in recent years and is now facing severe challenges caused by the over-consumption of resources and by ecological and environmental degradation. To assess the influence of resource exploitation and ecological trade, we have developed an index of excessive resource consumption based on the concepts of ecological deficit and ecological over-shoot, and we have used the ecological trade deficit to assess the pressure created by the export and import of resources and products. Our analysis indicated that China’s consumption footprint surpassed its biocapacity in 1983, leading to an ecological deficit, and the production footprint surpassed its biocapacity in 1986, leading to an ecological over-shoot, as the over-consumption of natural resources grew. By 2010, 3.6 times the current area of bioproductive land was needed to provide sufficient resources to meet the consumption. China has been encouraging the development of exporting enterprises by implementing a series of financial and tax incentives, which have stimulated the economy in the short-term but have gradually increased the ecological trade deficit since 2000. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction China has been on the road of industrialisation and urbanisation since the structural reform and policy of openness that began in 1978, which has since transformed the country from a low-income developing country to the second largest global economy. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income have increased more than 110- and 50-fold, respectively. The total energy consumption was 3.25 billion tonnes of standard coal in 2010, which was 6-fold higher than the 0.57 billion tonnes in 1978. In 2007, China consumed 36.4% of the world’s iron and steel production, 51.7% of the cement production, and 15.9% of the energy production, but its GDP accounted for only 6% of the gross global product (Li and Yu, 2011). Despite substantial socioeconomic achievements, concerns are growing over water availability and pollution, land degradation, and depletion of exhaustible resources (Pan, 2012). High resource consumption increases air, water, and soil pollution, and the environmental problems that developed countries have faced for nearly 100 years have emerged rapidly and intensely in China in the last 20 years. The existing extensive mode of economic development – rapid industrialisation and urbanisation – is thus considered to
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +86 02585287278. E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Gao).
be unsustainable, and supporting the ambitious goals of building an economically viable and environmentally sustainable society is difficult over the long term. The continuous rapid consumption of resources in China has also drawn global attention; some arguments have been raised on the potential negative impact of Chinese consumption on global natural resources. The ability of these resources to meet the next stage of development would be a great challenge for China and the world. The Rio + 20 document “The Future We Want” acknowledged in 2012 the need to further mainstream sustainable development at all levels, integrating economic, social, and environmental aspects. Developing countries such as China will play increasingly important roles in shaping the future of humanity, thus the evaluation of the sustainability of China’s use of natural resources is very important. Ecological footprint (EF) and biocapacity (BC) are simple tools for measuring ecological sustainability (Wackernagel et al., 1999). These can be used to assess the status of a country’s or a region’s development by comparing the consumption and production of resources in the region, thereby identifying the status of the regional ecological security and the potential for sustainable development (Chen et al., 2010; Liu et al., 2011). The ecological footprint (EF) is a simple but comprehensive measure of the fundamental conditions necessary for sustainability, which might be used to set up national ecological asset accounts (Monfreda et al., 2004) and evaluate the human appropriation of land (Salvo et al., 2015).
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Also it is a resource and emission accounting tool for measuring the direct and indirect human demands on the planet’s regenerative capacity for comparison with the global BC (Wackernagel et al., 1999; Herendeen, 2000; Monfreda et al., 2004; Galli et al., 2012a,b). Ecological footprint have attracted the attention of many scholars and have become important indicators of the demands on ecological carrying capacities (Rees and Wackernagel, 1994; Wackernagel and Rees, 1996; Rees, 2000; Zhang et al., 2000; Lenzen and Murray, 2001, 2003; Lewan and Simmons, 2001; Aall and Norland, 2005; Vuuren and Bouwman, 2005; Gao and Liu, 2011; Bastianoni et al., 2012; Shao et al., 2013). Relationship of EF and BC can be compared, and two results can be drawn, an EF > BC represents an ecological deficit (ED), so ED countries are ecological debtors; an EF < BC represents an ecological surplus (ES), so ES countries are ecological creditors (Rugani et al., 2014). Furthermore, based on the relationship of EF and BC, some indicators have been developed, including external biocapacity dependence (EBD), external resource dependence (ERD) (Galli et al., 2015), and Ecological footprint contribution index (EFCI) (Li et al., 2014), which are indicators to evaluate an area’s dependence and ecological pressure on the outside area in terms of resources and ecological services. These indicators further extended the application of EF and BC in different study areas and provided a clearer description to consider the sustainability of development on local level. However, given the indicators above, it is still in lack of an indicator to clarify the ways by which ecological deficit can be compensated. Generally speaking, ecological deficit, if occurred in a country or region, need to be compensated by over consumption of local resources (ecological overshoot) or importing resources from other countries (ecological trade deficit). Therefore, we have applied the concepts of ecological deficit (ED) and ecological overshoot (EO) based on the comparison of EF and BC to calculate the resource excessive consumption index (RECI) which can be applied on local scale. Through the analysis of RECI, we evaluated the overconsumption of natural resources in China and the potential impact of international trade on China’s EF and BC. With the increase in international trade, the importation of resources may be able to compensate the consumption of native natural resources, and products could be exported, indicating the potential influence of the national EF at global scale. The indicators will also be helpful for practitioners at a given national scale to evaluate their natural resources consumption and production, and potential trade ‘threat’ to the other countries. 2. Methods 2.1. Ecological footprint and biocapacity The EF relates to a population or to the production of economic goods or services is the total area of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems required to produce all the resources consumed and to absorb all the wastes generated (Bagliani and Martini, 2012) and can be compared to the available global BC (Wackernagel et al., 1999; Monfreda et al., 2004; Galli et al., 2012a). There are six land-use types for measuring the ecological footprint: cropland, forestland, grazing land, fishing grounds, built-up land, and carbon uptake land which is always called carbon footprints (EFcarbon ) (Borucke et al., 2013; Cheng et al., 2011). The EF and EFcarbon are calculated as in Eqs. (1) and (2): EF =
Q ×Y ×r Yn
EFcarbon =
Pc (1 − Socean ) ×r Yc
(1)
(2)
where Q is the amount of a product harvested or CO2 emitted, Yn is the national average yield of product Q (or its carbon uptake capacity for carbon dioxide emission), Y and r are the yield and equivalence factors, respectively, for the land-use type in question, Pc is the annual anthropogenic emission (production) of carbon dioxide, Socean is the fraction of anthropogenic emissions sequestered by oceans (approximately one-third; IPCC, 2001), and Yc is the average annual rate of carbon uptake per hectare of global forests. BC reflects the entire biologically productive area and represents the maximum level of resource supply, which is the counterpart of the footprint (Wackernagel and Rees, 1996; Wackernagel et al., 1999; Monfreda et al., 2004). BC is calculated as: BC =
n
ai × ri × Yi
(3)
i=1
where ai is the area of land type i (global hectares, gha), Yi is the yield factor of land type i, and ri is the equivalence factor of land type i. The EF of consumption (EFC ) was calculated to properly allocate the embodied footprints of product trade flows and to track the BC (Galli et al., 2012; Borucke et al., 2013): EFC = EFP + EFI − EFE
(4)
where EFP is the EF embedded in locally produced products, EFI is the EF of imported or input products, and EFE is the EF of exported or output products. The data used in the calculation of ecological footprints (include EFC , EFP , EFI , EFE ) and biocapacity were drawn from the Statistical Yearbooks of China published by the government from 1980 to 2011. The yield and equivalence factors may vary annually with land-use pattern and regional technological development, but the variation normally has a small effect on the total time series of EFs. We thus adopted previously published yield factors (Xu et al., 2003; Wackernagel et al., 1999). The calculation of Pc was based on the accounting methods of carbon dioxide emissions published in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007; Li, 2013), and Yc was obtained from Venetoulis and Talberth (2008). 2.2. Recourses excessive consumption index and ecological trade deficit The EF is usually calculated using data for consumption, but globalisation and international trade has reduced the consumption of native commodities, which has forced the calculation of EFP . If EFC < BC, the consumption of a country is below its capacity. If EFC > BC, the country has an ED, which must be compensated by importation or by over-consumption of native natural resources. Increasing ED have increased ecological pressures caused by the consumption of resources and the sequestration of carbon dioxide emissions by industry and the daily life of local residents (Li et al., 2014). This relationship is described by: ED = EFC − BC
(5)
Ecological deficits can be compensated in two ways: either the deficit is balanced through imports (ecological trade deficit); or the deficit is met through over consumption of domestic resources, leading to natural capital depletion (ecological overshoot). The domestic ecological overshoot (EO) has connect with footprint of production and biocapacity (Monfreda et al., 2004). If EFP < BC, the natural resources consumed by production in a country is below its capacity and will not produce excessive ecological pressures, but if EFP > BC, then the production in the country is
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EO = EFP − BC
(6)
The ecological trade deficit (ETD) equals the footprint of consumption (ED) subtracts the footprint of production (EO). ETD could be calculated as: ETD = EFC − EFP = ED − EO
(7)
The ecological deficit is the prerequisite for ecological trade deficit, If EO = ED, ETD is zero, indicating that there is no ETD, the ecological deficit is only compensated by ecological overshoot; if EO is zero, the ecological deficit is only compensated by ecological trade deficit. If 0 < EO < ED, then both EO and ETD will contribute for the compensation of ED. In order to be clearer to present the proportion of over consumption of domestic resources to reimburse the ecological deficit, and identify the pressure of domestic ecological overshoot, we therefore developed resource excessive consumption index (RECI) to present the proportion of over consumption of domestic resources to reimburse the ecological deficit, so, we think ED divided by EO could illustrate the means of RECI more clearly than the other possible combinations or ratios. RECI is calculated as: RECI =
EO EFP − BC = ED EFC − BC
EFc EF of consumpon and producon and biocapacity (106 global hectares)
overusing its natural resources, which will lead to an EO. Increasing EO has gradually increased the pressure for producing food and generating electricity (Li et al., 2014). This relationship is described by:
3
EFp
BC
3000.00 2500.00 2000.00 1500.00 1000.00 500.00 Years
0.00
19781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010
Fig. 1. China’s biocapacity (BC), consumption ecological footprint (EFC ), and production footprint (EFP ) during 1978–2010.
international trade in order to satisfy their demands. Therefore, the RECI we develop in the study applies on local scale. In the paper, the data used in the calculation of ecological deficit and ecological overshoot and ecological trade deficit was based on the results of EF and BC in China, and the data used in the calculation of Resource excessive consumption index (RECI) came from the results of ED and EO. 3. Results
(8) 3.1. Changes in the EF and BC
A higher RECI indicates a higher level of over-consumption of local resources, an RECI = 1 indicates that the over-consumption of local resources will completely compensate the ED, when RECI < 1, EFP < EFC , indicating that ED must be compensated by importation, and when RECI > 1, EFP > EFC , indicating that the over-consumption of natural resources will not be able to compensate the local ED, and the over-produced commodities must be exported to contribute to the global ecological balance. Every index has its scope of application. On global scale (or no geographical boundary), the calculation of EF only reflects the depletion of resources by human activities, EFC equals EFP , therefore, only global ecological deficit will occur in case the global EF surpasses BC, since no trade will be counted on global level. On local (certain geographical boundary) scale, such as a nation, it is believed that when consumption exceeds local availability, countries either resort to depletion of ecological assets or turn to
Both the EFC and EFP have increased rapidly for more than 20 years, and the BC has maintained a relatively stable level (Fig. 1). The annual average growth rate of the EFC and EFP reached 5.5 and 5.6%, respectively, except during the financial crisis from 1998 to 2001. Based on the analysis of the changes in the consumption and production footprints of different land-use types from 1978 to 2010 (Fig. 2a and b), the proportion of cropland has always been the largest component of the production footprint, but it was also the largest component of the consumption footprint until 2004. China has long been known as an agricultural country. Production and consumption has been higher for agricultural products than for other products, but diets are changing with socioeconomic development. The proportion of grains is decreasing, and the proportions of meat, dairy products, and fish are increasing. The footprint of
Fig. 2. Changes in the production (a) and consumption (b) footprints of land-use types during 1978–2010.
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cropland is thus decreasing, and the footprints of forests and grazing land are increasing. The area of land required for carbon uptake increased from 0.2 to 1.1 billion gha, and the consumption footprint of this land had increased and surpassed cropland to become the largest by 2005, which had increased by up to 35% by 2010, which was mainly caused by the increase of energy consumption from 0.2 to 3.3 billion tonnes of standard coal, leading to the higher emissions of carbon dioxide during the socioeconomic development. Meanwhile, the carbon footprint which comes from consuming energy to produce commodities for export needs to be deducted from the EF account, and the carbon footprint embodied in import goods should be added (Li et al., 2014).
0.80
Resource excessive consumption index
4
0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 Years 0.00 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Fig. 4. Resource excessive consumption index during 1986–2010.
3.2. Variation in the ETD and RECI The EFC surpassed the BC in 1983, indicating the onset of an ED. The EO appeared in 1986, and the EFP had exceeded BC ever since. The ED increased nearly 66-fold between 1983 and 2010, from 32.5 to 2135.5 million gha (Fig. 2), and the ED in 2010 was 2.6-fold higher than the BC, indicating that 3.6 times the current area of bioproductive land were needed to provide the resources to meet the consumption. The EO also increased 8-fold during the same period, 145.6 to 1166.7 million gha. In order to compensate the ecological deficit since 1983, China had to import biocapacity which lead to ecological trade deficit (ETD). The calculation showed that ETD had generally been increasing dramatically for more than 20 years (Fig. 3). ED had emerged since 1983, which required to be compensated by trade or over consumption of domestic resources. There was no EO between 1983 and 1985, indicating ED was compensated by ETD only, therefore ED = ETD; EO had been emerging and increasing since 1986, ETD also presented an increasing trend while ED increased annual too. ETD had reached up to 9.7 million gha in 2010, which was approximately 5 times than that of 2.3 million gha in 1986. The increase in ETD indicated that China was not only over-consuming its own resources but also importing more and more resources from abroad. Meanwhile, over-consumption of domestic resources has emerged since 1986 as the EFP surpassed the BC. Therefore, ED of China had been reimbursed by ecological trade and over consumption of local resources since then. The RECI has tended to increase from 1986 to 2010 but has remained below unity, with a peak at approximately 0.7 in 1998 (Fig. 4). The RECI indicated that the over-consumption of resources has increased to compensate the ED.
Fig. 3. China’s ecological deficit (ED) and ecological overshoot (EO) and ecological trade deficit (ETD) during 1978–2010.
4. Discussion As reiterated in the Rio + 20 conference, the world is still facing tremendous challenges towards realising sustainable development. Development is the frontline defence, but traditional approaches are no longer sufficient (Alex, 2012). China, with one of the largest developing economies, will undoubtedly play a key role in global sustainable development. By analyzing the trends in BC and EF, “scissor” profiles were identified, the main feature of this profiles was the growing gap between an increasing EFC and a decreasing or stable BC over time (Niccolucci et al., 2012), showing the so-called ecological deficit, which emerged since 1983 when the EFC surpassed the BC. Population growth and the level of per capita consumption are important factors increasing the growth of the ED. The population increased more than 2.5-fold between 1978 and 2010, from 5.4 × 108 to 13.4 × 108 , the per capita BC decreased slightly, from 0.9 to 0.6 gha, and the per capita EFC gradually increased, from 0.7 to 2.2 gha. China is now facing an increasing discrepancy between the per capita EFC and BC. Therefore, Population growth and socioeconomic development in China have been accompanied by an excessive consumption of nature resources (Dai et al., 2010) and ETD. The ETD fluctuated between 1978 and 2000, and increased after 2000, indicating that the development of foreign trade still relied mainly on inputs of energy and resources. In 2009, China accounted for 46% of global steel consumption, 45% of global coal consumption, and 48% of global cement consumption, and more than 50% of the consumption of important energy resources such as oil and iron, bauxite, and copper ores depended on imports. Energy consumption per GDP was 2.9, 4.9, and 4.3 fold higher than those of the United States, Japan, and the European Union, respectively, and the total recovery rate of mineral resources was approximately 20% lower than the global advanced level. China thus faces large challenges in foreign trade, and the pressure on resources and the environment is very high. Footprint analysis is not dynamic and has no predictive capability. But we can use it in a time-series study of ecological footprint to assess alternative “what if” scenarios on the road to sustainability (Rees, 1996). In other words, scenarios can be assessed of what would be the consequences if a given set of conditions are met. Assuming the Chinese population and energy consumption keep on growing by an annual rate at 1.1% and 5.5% respectively, scissor development paths are irreversible, and the ecological deficit will grow, leading to an unsustainable development. In these contexts, strict policies, new technologies and responsible consumption behaviours are needed to limit and change the direction of the trend. China is now struggling with its over-consumption of natural resources and growing ETD. To rectify this situation and
Please cite this article in press as: Gao, J., Tian, M., Analysis of over-consumption of natural resources and the ecological trade deficit in China based on ecological footprints. Ecol. Indicat. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.10.044
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attain long-term sustainable development, China must take appropriate measures to control the ED and to promote the resilience of its BC. The increase in per capita consumption is likely the main cause of the ED. The most practical measures China should take in the near future to meet the continuous demand for growth are to improve resource efficiency and promote better economic consumption. For improving resource efficiency, a circular industrial chain based on ecological principles could be developed; application of the three Rs (reduce, reuse, and recycle) in the exploitation, transportation, production, storage, and use of resources is important. For promoting better economic consumption, excessive packaging could be reduced, the “green consumption” idea could be promoted, and the structure of energy consumption could be improved. Rapid urbanisation is another factor requiring attention. According to United Nations statistics, China has 15 of the world’s 100 fastest growing cities with populations of a million or more. The Chinese government estimates that approximately 60% of the population will live in cities by 2020, and by using established green technologies, the planned EF could be less than half that of a comparable conventional city (Dennis, 2008). One fundamental approach to reduce the ED is to increase the biocapacity. First, ecological thresholds should be identified for protecting the necessary ecological service functions and stabilising the total quantity of biological production of land area. The ecological redline has been developed and included in the revised Environmental Protection Law (2014). China pledged to carry out strict measures to protect the red line, improve the ecological security pattern and enhance the land potential productivity. Another fundament approach to reduce ED is to increase the bioproductivity of the land, ecological agriculture should be promoted and enhanced through technical innovation of agricultural equipment, scientific land management, highly efficient breeding techniques, and effective irrigation systems.
5. Conclusions Both EFC and EFP have grown rapidly for more than 20 years. The rapid economic development not only over-consumed the local resources but also led to the importation of increasingly more resources, leading to a gradually increasing ED. The EFC was 4.6fold higher in 2010 than in 1978. An ED and EO have appeared since 1983 and 1986, respectively. The ED increased nearly 66-fold between 1983 and 2010, and 3.6 times the current bioproductive land were needed to provide the resources for the consumption. The EO also grew 8-fold during the same period. To clarify the relationship between ED and EO, we developed the RECI, which indicated that the over-consumption of resources had increased to compensate the ED. The analysis of the ETD had indicated that China was not only over-consuming its own resources but also importing increasingly more resources. The sustainable development of China will undoubtedly have a large influence on global society, especially in a background of increasing international trade. In this study, we found that despite its reputation as a “world factory”, China was a net importing country in terms of footprints. Our study indicated that China should improve its current practice of international trade of importing raw material and exporting primary products and should promote the technical innovation of value-added products. This indicator may also be useful as an early warning index for other developing or economic transiting countries, which would be helpful to balance economic development and exploitation of natural resources.
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Acknowledgement This work is supported by the National Environmental Conservation Research Program (Grant Nos. 201409055 and 201209027).
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Analysis of over-consumption of natural resources and the ecological trade deficit in China based on ecological footprints Jixi Gao ∗ , Meirong Tian Nanjing Institute of Environmental Science, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Nanjing 210042, China
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history: Received 8 September 2014 Received in revised form 19 October 2015 Accepted 19 October 2015 Available online xxx Keywords: Ecological footprint Biological capacity Ecological deficit Ecological overshoot Nature resources
a b s t r a c t China has experienced unprecedented economic development in recent years and is now facing severe challenges caused by the over-consumption of resources and by ecological and environmental degradation. To assess the influence of resource exploitation and ecological trade, we have developed an index of excessive resource consumption based on the concepts of ecological deficit and ecological over-shoot, and we have used the ecological trade deficit to assess the pressure created by the export and import of resources and products. Our analysis indicated that China’s consumption footprint surpassed its biocapacity in 1983, leading to an ecological deficit, and the production footprint surpassed its biocapacity in 1986, leading to an ecological over-shoot, as the over-consumption of natural resources grew. By 2010, 3.6 times the current area of bioproductive land was needed to provide sufficient resources to meet the consumption. China has been encouraging the development of exporting enterprises by implementing a series of financial and tax incentives, which have stimulated the economy in the short-term but have gradually increased the ecological trade deficit since 2000. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction China has been on the road of industrialisation and urbanisation since the structural reform and policy of openness that began in 1978, which has since transformed the country from a low-income developing country to the second largest global economy. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income have increased more than 110- and 50-fold, respectively. The total energy consumption was 3.25 billion tonnes of standard coal in 2010, which was 6-fold higher than the 0.57 billion tonnes in 1978. In 2007, China consumed 36.4% of the world’s iron and steel production, 51.7% of the cement production, and 15.9% of the energy production, but its GDP accounted for only 6% of the gross global product (Li and Yu, 2011). Despite substantial socioeconomic achievements, concerns are growing over water availability and pollution, land degradation, and depletion of exhaustible resources (Pan, 2012). High resource consumption increases air, water, and soil pollution, and the environmental problems that developed countries have faced for nearly 100 years have emerged rapidly and intensely in China in the last 20 years. The existing extensive mode of economic development – rapid industrialisation and urbanisation – is thus considered to
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +86 02585287278. E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Gao).
be unsustainable, and supporting the ambitious goals of building an economically viable and environmentally sustainable society is difficult over the long term. The continuous rapid consumption of resources in China has also drawn global attention; some arguments have been raised on the potential negative impact of Chinese consumption on global natural resources. The ability of these resources to meet the next stage of development would be a great challenge for China and the world. The Rio + 20 document “The Future We Want” acknowledged in 2012 the need to further mainstream sustainable development at all levels, integrating economic, social, and environmental aspects. Developing countries such as China will play increasingly important roles in shaping the future of humanity, thus the evaluation of the sustainability of China’s use of natural resources is very important. Ecological footprint (EF) and biocapacity (BC) are simple tools for measuring ecological sustainability (Wackernagel et al., 1999). These can be used to assess the status of a country’s or a region’s development by comparing the consumption and production of resources in the region, thereby identifying the status of the regional ecological security and the potential for sustainable development (Chen et al., 2010; Liu et al., 2011). The ecological footprint (EF) is a simple but comprehensive measure of the fundamental conditions necessary for sustainability, which might be used to set up national ecological asset accounts (Monfreda et al., 2004) and evaluate the human appropriation of land (Salvo et al., 2015).
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Also it is a resource and emission accounting tool for measuring the direct and indirect human demands on the planet’s regenerative capacity for comparison with the global BC (Wackernagel et al., 1999; Herendeen, 2000; Monfreda et al., 2004; Galli et al., 2012a,b). Ecological footprint have attracted the attention of many scholars and have become important indicators of the demands on ecological carrying capacities (Rees and Wackernagel, 1994; Wackernagel and Rees, 1996; Rees, 2000; Zhang et al., 2000; Lenzen and Murray, 2001, 2003; Lewan and Simmons, 2001; Aall and Norland, 2005; Vuuren and Bouwman, 2005; Gao and Liu, 2011; Bastianoni et al., 2012; Shao et al., 2013). Relationship of EF and BC can be compared, and two results can be drawn, an EF > BC represents an ecological deficit (ED), so ED countries are ecological debtors; an EF < BC represents an ecological surplus (ES), so ES countries are ecological creditors (Rugani et al., 2014). Furthermore, based on the relationship of EF and BC, some indicators have been developed, including external biocapacity dependence (EBD), external resource dependence (ERD) (Galli et al., 2015), and Ecological footprint contribution index (EFCI) (Li et al., 2014), which are indicators to evaluate an area’s dependence and ecological pressure on the outside area in terms of resources and ecological services. These indicators further extended the application of EF and BC in different study areas and provided a clearer description to consider the sustainability of development on local level. However, given the indicators above, it is still in lack of an indicator to clarify the ways by which ecological deficit can be compensated. Generally speaking, ecological deficit, if occurred in a country or region, need to be compensated by over consumption of local resources (ecological overshoot) or importing resources from other countries (ecological trade deficit). Therefore, we have applied the concepts of ecological deficit (ED) and ecological overshoot (EO) based on the comparison of EF and BC to calculate the resource excessive consumption index (RECI) which can be applied on local scale. Through the analysis of RECI, we evaluated the overconsumption of natural resources in China and the potential impact of international trade on China’s EF and BC. With the increase in international trade, the importation of resources may be able to compensate the consumption of native natural resources, and products could be exported, indicating the potential influence of the national EF at global scale. The indicators will also be helpful for practitioners at a given national scale to evaluate their natural resources consumption and production, and potential trade ‘threat’ to the other countries. 2. Methods 2.1. Ecological footprint and biocapacity The EF relates to a population or to the production of economic goods or services is the total area of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems required to produce all the resources consumed and to absorb all the wastes generated (Bagliani and Martini, 2012) and can be compared to the available global BC (Wackernagel et al., 1999; Monfreda et al., 2004; Galli et al., 2012a). There are six land-use types for measuring the ecological footprint: cropland, forestland, grazing land, fishing grounds, built-up land, and carbon uptake land which is always called carbon footprints (EFcarbon ) (Borucke et al., 2013; Cheng et al., 2011). The EF and EFcarbon are calculated as in Eqs. (1) and (2): EF =
Q ×Y ×r Yn
EFcarbon =
Pc (1 − Socean ) ×r Yc
(1)
(2)
where Q is the amount of a product harvested or CO2 emitted, Yn is the national average yield of product Q (or its carbon uptake capacity for carbon dioxide emission), Y and r are the yield and equivalence factors, respectively, for the land-use type in question, Pc is the annual anthropogenic emission (production) of carbon dioxide, Socean is the fraction of anthropogenic emissions sequestered by oceans (approximately one-third; IPCC, 2001), and Yc is the average annual rate of carbon uptake per hectare of global forests. BC reflects the entire biologically productive area and represents the maximum level of resource supply, which is the counterpart of the footprint (Wackernagel and Rees, 1996; Wackernagel et al., 1999; Monfreda et al., 2004). BC is calculated as: BC =
n
ai × ri × Yi
(3)
i=1
where ai is the area of land type i (global hectares, gha), Yi is the yield factor of land type i, and ri is the equivalence factor of land type i. The EF of consumption (EFC ) was calculated to properly allocate the embodied footprints of product trade flows and to track the BC (Galli et al., 2012; Borucke et al., 2013): EFC = EFP + EFI − EFE
(4)
where EFP is the EF embedded in locally produced products, EFI is the EF of imported or input products, and EFE is the EF of exported or output products. The data used in the calculation of ecological footprints (include EFC , EFP , EFI , EFE ) and biocapacity were drawn from the Statistical Yearbooks of China published by the government from 1980 to 2011. The yield and equivalence factors may vary annually with land-use pattern and regional technological development, but the variation normally has a small effect on the total time series of EFs. We thus adopted previously published yield factors (Xu et al., 2003; Wackernagel et al., 1999). The calculation of Pc was based on the accounting methods of carbon dioxide emissions published in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007; Li, 2013), and Yc was obtained from Venetoulis and Talberth (2008). 2.2. Recourses excessive consumption index and ecological trade deficit The EF is usually calculated using data for consumption, but globalisation and international trade has reduced the consumption of native commodities, which has forced the calculation of EFP . If EFC < BC, the consumption of a country is below its capacity. If EFC > BC, the country has an ED, which must be compensated by importation or by over-consumption of native natural resources. Increasing ED have increased ecological pressures caused by the consumption of resources and the sequestration of carbon dioxide emissions by industry and the daily life of local residents (Li et al., 2014). This relationship is described by: ED = EFC − BC
(5)
Ecological deficits can be compensated in two ways: either the deficit is balanced through imports (ecological trade deficit); or the deficit is met through over consumption of domestic resources, leading to natural capital depletion (ecological overshoot). The domestic ecological overshoot (EO) has connect with footprint of production and biocapacity (Monfreda et al., 2004). If EFP < BC, the natural resources consumed by production in a country is below its capacity and will not produce excessive ecological pressures, but if EFP > BC, then the production in the country is
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EO = EFP − BC
(6)
The ecological trade deficit (ETD) equals the footprint of consumption (ED) subtracts the footprint of production (EO). ETD could be calculated as: ETD = EFC − EFP = ED − EO
(7)
The ecological deficit is the prerequisite for ecological trade deficit, If EO = ED, ETD is zero, indicating that there is no ETD, the ecological deficit is only compensated by ecological overshoot; if EO is zero, the ecological deficit is only compensated by ecological trade deficit. If 0 < EO < ED, then both EO and ETD will contribute for the compensation of ED. In order to be clearer to present the proportion of over consumption of domestic resources to reimburse the ecological deficit, and identify the pressure of domestic ecological overshoot, we therefore developed resource excessive consumption index (RECI) to present the proportion of over consumption of domestic resources to reimburse the ecological deficit, so, we think ED divided by EO could illustrate the means of RECI more clearly than the other possible combinations or ratios. RECI is calculated as: RECI =
EO EFP − BC = ED EFC − BC
EFc EF of consumpon and producon and biocapacity (106 global hectares)
overusing its natural resources, which will lead to an EO. Increasing EO has gradually increased the pressure for producing food and generating electricity (Li et al., 2014). This relationship is described by:
3
EFp
BC
3000.00 2500.00 2000.00 1500.00 1000.00 500.00 Years
0.00
19781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010
Fig. 1. China’s biocapacity (BC), consumption ecological footprint (EFC ), and production footprint (EFP ) during 1978–2010.
international trade in order to satisfy their demands. Therefore, the RECI we develop in the study applies on local scale. In the paper, the data used in the calculation of ecological deficit and ecological overshoot and ecological trade deficit was based on the results of EF and BC in China, and the data used in the calculation of Resource excessive consumption index (RECI) came from the results of ED and EO. 3. Results
(8) 3.1. Changes in the EF and BC
A higher RECI indicates a higher level of over-consumption of local resources, an RECI = 1 indicates that the over-consumption of local resources will completely compensate the ED, when RECI < 1, EFP < EFC , indicating that ED must be compensated by importation, and when RECI > 1, EFP > EFC , indicating that the over-consumption of natural resources will not be able to compensate the local ED, and the over-produced commodities must be exported to contribute to the global ecological balance. Every index has its scope of application. On global scale (or no geographical boundary), the calculation of EF only reflects the depletion of resources by human activities, EFC equals EFP , therefore, only global ecological deficit will occur in case the global EF surpasses BC, since no trade will be counted on global level. On local (certain geographical boundary) scale, such as a nation, it is believed that when consumption exceeds local availability, countries either resort to depletion of ecological assets or turn to
Both the EFC and EFP have increased rapidly for more than 20 years, and the BC has maintained a relatively stable level (Fig. 1). The annual average growth rate of the EFC and EFP reached 5.5 and 5.6%, respectively, except during the financial crisis from 1998 to 2001. Based on the analysis of the changes in the consumption and production footprints of different land-use types from 1978 to 2010 (Fig. 2a and b), the proportion of cropland has always been the largest component of the production footprint, but it was also the largest component of the consumption footprint until 2004. China has long been known as an agricultural country. Production and consumption has been higher for agricultural products than for other products, but diets are changing with socioeconomic development. The proportion of grains is decreasing, and the proportions of meat, dairy products, and fish are increasing. The footprint of
Fig. 2. Changes in the production (a) and consumption (b) footprints of land-use types during 1978–2010.
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cropland is thus decreasing, and the footprints of forests and grazing land are increasing. The area of land required for carbon uptake increased from 0.2 to 1.1 billion gha, and the consumption footprint of this land had increased and surpassed cropland to become the largest by 2005, which had increased by up to 35% by 2010, which was mainly caused by the increase of energy consumption from 0.2 to 3.3 billion tonnes of standard coal, leading to the higher emissions of carbon dioxide during the socioeconomic development. Meanwhile, the carbon footprint which comes from consuming energy to produce commodities for export needs to be deducted from the EF account, and the carbon footprint embodied in import goods should be added (Li et al., 2014).
0.80
Resource excessive consumption index
4
0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 Years 0.00 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Fig. 4. Resource excessive consumption index during 1986–2010.
3.2. Variation in the ETD and RECI The EFC surpassed the BC in 1983, indicating the onset of an ED. The EO appeared in 1986, and the EFP had exceeded BC ever since. The ED increased nearly 66-fold between 1983 and 2010, from 32.5 to 2135.5 million gha (Fig. 2), and the ED in 2010 was 2.6-fold higher than the BC, indicating that 3.6 times the current area of bioproductive land were needed to provide the resources to meet the consumption. The EO also increased 8-fold during the same period, 145.6 to 1166.7 million gha. In order to compensate the ecological deficit since 1983, China had to import biocapacity which lead to ecological trade deficit (ETD). The calculation showed that ETD had generally been increasing dramatically for more than 20 years (Fig. 3). ED had emerged since 1983, which required to be compensated by trade or over consumption of domestic resources. There was no EO between 1983 and 1985, indicating ED was compensated by ETD only, therefore ED = ETD; EO had been emerging and increasing since 1986, ETD also presented an increasing trend while ED increased annual too. ETD had reached up to 9.7 million gha in 2010, which was approximately 5 times than that of 2.3 million gha in 1986. The increase in ETD indicated that China was not only over-consuming its own resources but also importing more and more resources from abroad. Meanwhile, over-consumption of domestic resources has emerged since 1986 as the EFP surpassed the BC. Therefore, ED of China had been reimbursed by ecological trade and over consumption of local resources since then. The RECI has tended to increase from 1986 to 2010 but has remained below unity, with a peak at approximately 0.7 in 1998 (Fig. 4). The RECI indicated that the over-consumption of resources has increased to compensate the ED.
Fig. 3. China’s ecological deficit (ED) and ecological overshoot (EO) and ecological trade deficit (ETD) during 1978–2010.
4. Discussion As reiterated in the Rio + 20 conference, the world is still facing tremendous challenges towards realising sustainable development. Development is the frontline defence, but traditional approaches are no longer sufficient (Alex, 2012). China, with one of the largest developing economies, will undoubtedly play a key role in global sustainable development. By analyzing the trends in BC and EF, “scissor” profiles were identified, the main feature of this profiles was the growing gap between an increasing EFC and a decreasing or stable BC over time (Niccolucci et al., 2012), showing the so-called ecological deficit, which emerged since 1983 when the EFC surpassed the BC. Population growth and the level of per capita consumption are important factors increasing the growth of the ED. The population increased more than 2.5-fold between 1978 and 2010, from 5.4 × 108 to 13.4 × 108 , the per capita BC decreased slightly, from 0.9 to 0.6 gha, and the per capita EFC gradually increased, from 0.7 to 2.2 gha. China is now facing an increasing discrepancy between the per capita EFC and BC. Therefore, Population growth and socioeconomic development in China have been accompanied by an excessive consumption of nature resources (Dai et al., 2010) and ETD. The ETD fluctuated between 1978 and 2000, and increased after 2000, indicating that the development of foreign trade still relied mainly on inputs of energy and resources. In 2009, China accounted for 46% of global steel consumption, 45% of global coal consumption, and 48% of global cement consumption, and more than 50% of the consumption of important energy resources such as oil and iron, bauxite, and copper ores depended on imports. Energy consumption per GDP was 2.9, 4.9, and 4.3 fold higher than those of the United States, Japan, and the European Union, respectively, and the total recovery rate of mineral resources was approximately 20% lower than the global advanced level. China thus faces large challenges in foreign trade, and the pressure on resources and the environment is very high. Footprint analysis is not dynamic and has no predictive capability. But we can use it in a time-series study of ecological footprint to assess alternative “what if” scenarios on the road to sustainability (Rees, 1996). In other words, scenarios can be assessed of what would be the consequences if a given set of conditions are met. Assuming the Chinese population and energy consumption keep on growing by an annual rate at 1.1% and 5.5% respectively, scissor development paths are irreversible, and the ecological deficit will grow, leading to an unsustainable development. In these contexts, strict policies, new technologies and responsible consumption behaviours are needed to limit and change the direction of the trend. China is now struggling with its over-consumption of natural resources and growing ETD. To rectify this situation and
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attain long-term sustainable development, China must take appropriate measures to control the ED and to promote the resilience of its BC. The increase in per capita consumption is likely the main cause of the ED. The most practical measures China should take in the near future to meet the continuous demand for growth are to improve resource efficiency and promote better economic consumption. For improving resource efficiency, a circular industrial chain based on ecological principles could be developed; application of the three Rs (reduce, reuse, and recycle) in the exploitation, transportation, production, storage, and use of resources is important. For promoting better economic consumption, excessive packaging could be reduced, the “green consumption” idea could be promoted, and the structure of energy consumption could be improved. Rapid urbanisation is another factor requiring attention. According to United Nations statistics, China has 15 of the world’s 100 fastest growing cities with populations of a million or more. The Chinese government estimates that approximately 60% of the population will live in cities by 2020, and by using established green technologies, the planned EF could be less than half that of a comparable conventional city (Dennis, 2008). One fundamental approach to reduce the ED is to increase the biocapacity. First, ecological thresholds should be identified for protecting the necessary ecological service functions and stabilising the total quantity of biological production of land area. The ecological redline has been developed and included in the revised Environmental Protection Law (2014). China pledged to carry out strict measures to protect the red line, improve the ecological security pattern and enhance the land potential productivity. Another fundament approach to reduce ED is to increase the bioproductivity of the land, ecological agriculture should be promoted and enhanced through technical innovation of agricultural equipment, scientific land management, highly efficient breeding techniques, and effective irrigation systems.
5. Conclusions Both EFC and EFP have grown rapidly for more than 20 years. The rapid economic development not only over-consumed the local resources but also led to the importation of increasingly more resources, leading to a gradually increasing ED. The EFC was 4.6fold higher in 2010 than in 1978. An ED and EO have appeared since 1983 and 1986, respectively. The ED increased nearly 66-fold between 1983 and 2010, and 3.6 times the current bioproductive land were needed to provide the resources for the consumption. The EO also grew 8-fold during the same period. To clarify the relationship between ED and EO, we developed the RECI, which indicated that the over-consumption of resources had increased to compensate the ED. The analysis of the ETD had indicated that China was not only over-consuming its own resources but also importing increasingly more resources. The sustainable development of China will undoubtedly have a large influence on global society, especially in a background of increasing international trade. In this study, we found that despite its reputation as a “world factory”, China was a net importing country in terms of footprints. Our study indicated that China should improve its current practice of international trade of importing raw material and exporting primary products and should promote the technical innovation of value-added products. This indicator may also be useful as an early warning index for other developing or economic transiting countries, which would be helpful to balance economic development and exploitation of natural resources.
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Acknowledgement This work is supported by the National Environmental Conservation Research Program (Grant Nos. 201409055 and 201209027).
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Please cite this article in press as: Gao, J., Tian, M., Analysis of over-consumption of natural resources and the ecological trade deficit in China based on ecological footprints. Ecol. Indicat. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.10.044