Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania

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Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania Vygandas Gaigalis*, Vladislovas Katinas Laboratory for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Breslaujos g. 3, LT-44403, Kaunas, Lithuania

a r t i c l e i n f o

a b s t r a c t

Article history: Received 22 January 2019 Received in revised form 26 September 2019 Accepted 17 November 2019 Available online xxx

The article analyses the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects examining the case of Lithuania. This paper presents the achieved results obtained by implementing the targets of National Energy Independence Strategy and requirements of the EU directives for EU Member States. It was disclosed that over the last 5 years, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in gross inland fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania increased about 1.3 times. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew annually on average 3.2%. Country’s GDP increased about 1.3 times and gross inland and final fuel and energy consumption e about 10e12%. The largest share of RES in Lithuania came from solid biofuels e 80.6% in 2017. For the last 5 years, wind energy production increased about 2.5 times and biogas energy consumption e about 2.8 times. Total emissions of greenhouse gasses decreased by 3% and air pollutants by 23%. Lithuania has set targets to increase RES share in the final energy consumption up to 30% by 2020, 45% by 2030 and 80% by 2050 years. The analysis identified the most promising directions for sustainable energy development and their environmental impact. That is also suitable for use in other countries, in order to provide local energy resources. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Renewable energy Energy production Environment protection Prediction prospects Lithuania

1. Introduction The energy sector is an integral component of modern society and together is a very complicated economy branch, which has a huge impact on each country’s economy, its structure, and economy growth rates, social and economic well-being. Energy sector represents a significant part not only of the Lithuanian but all EU countries’ economy. After the closure of the Lithuanian Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP) at the end of 2009, the renewable energy sources (RES) in Lithuania consisted about 12% of gross inland fuel and energy consumption. The main tasks of political and economic institutions of Lithuania was to stabilize energy supply to all consumers: industry, services and households. Lithuania has limited quantity of indigenous energy sources and was depended upon the import of energy resources, such as natural gas, petroleum and hard coal. Lithuania’s energy dependence on the imports of fuel increased from 50% in 2009 to about 78e82% in 2010e2017, and considerably exceeded the EU average 53e54%.

* Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (V. Gaigalis).

Recently, Lithuania is facing challenges in the energy sector on three main dimensions: security of energy supply, competitiveness and sustainability of energy sector [1]. Energy is the essence of any production process and it must be secured for the economic growth of the nations. EU is among the most vulnerable countries due to her high-energy import dependency and scarcity in energy reserves. Substituting the fossil fuels, renewable energy reduces the countries for energy imports. Energy supply security, environmental issues and renewable energy efficiency in EU were studied by Gokgoz and Guvercin [2]. The issue of energy security stands high on the scale of EU’s priorities. Macroeconomic and political aspects of energy security were researched by Filipovic et al. [3]. Energy Ratio assessment and Energy Return on Investment compares the amount of useful energy derived divided by to the amount of energy expended to processes, generate, and distribute the useful energy [4]. Espinosa and Pizarro-Irizar [5] evaluated the renewable energy policy in Spain from 2002 to 2017 and calculated its cost-effectiveness in terms of CO2 emission reductions in the production of electricity. In Refs. [6,7] a framework to support decision making process in renewable energy investments was created and analysed, also cost-efficiency of renewable electricity (RES-E) support schemes in Europe for the period 2000e2015 were assessed.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.091 0960-1481/© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas, Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.091

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Solid biomass represents the largest share of biomass used for heat and electricity generation. National and global trends in biomass utilization and implementation for energy production, public preferences for biomass based electricity generation and long-term viability and growth of bio-based energy products hinges on the technical innovation and wider societal acceptance of these products [8e10]. Recently, biomass represents about 14% of primary energy consumption and expected to provide 50% of world total primary energy consumption by 2050. China’s renewable energy is an important part of the world’s energy system, so considerable attention there should be paid to renewable energy law and policy integration into the national energy system [11]. Renewable and low carbon technologies policy and integrated approach for the identification of spatial patterns related to renewable energy potential in European territories, should be used by European policy makers in developing more focused transnational renewable energy policies and strategies [12,13]. The impact of country-specific and macroeconomic determinants of cost efficiency of bioenergy industry in EU-28 countries and three main financial incentive schemes to promote renewable sector for electricity, heat and fuel production from renewables in UK were analysed by considering the fact that optimal policy design depends on effective analyses of the impacts of incentives on the performance of renewable energy systems [14,15]. Garcia-Gusano and Iribarren [16] studied the prospective energy security scenarios in Spain, based on future role of renewable power generation technologies and climate change implications. Renewable energy consumption, carbon emissions and renewable energy projections for climate change mitigation analysis showed clear differences between the groups of low-income and high-income countries [17,18]. Simulation software of a power system with large renewable penetration and a novel method to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of renewable electricity power generation projects were developed to assess the performance of energy systems [19,20]. The perspectives and development of biogas and its use for electricity, heat and transport in EU and its Member States were overviewed by Scarlat et al. [21]. Sustainable biogas production from agrowaste and effluents, and a spatial analysis of biogas potential from manure in Europe showed that waste-derived biogas is a promising technology that yields a renewable, sustainable, and green source of energy [22,23]. The renewable energy development has experienced significant growth in recent years in the United States, and majority of this came from the expansion of wind energy, with onshore capacity editions amounting to 48% between 2012 and 2017 [24,25]. Optimisation methodology, based on life cycle cost analysis of offshore wind farm deployments on the UK was developed [26], in order to reduce the cost of energy in wind energy sector, and optimum solutions were discovered. A comprehensive assessment of the development of wind power industry in China, and capability of wind power accommodation in regional power grids [27,28] showed that China’s wind power industry has developed rapidly, in recent years. The articles [29e31] discusses the wind farm control strategy for power reserve maximization, application of small wind turbines in the built environment, and challenges of integrating wind power plants into the electric power system. A novel method to optimize electricity generation from wind energy, and methodology to optimize a gridconnected hybrid renewable energy system (that hybridizes biomass, wind and photovoltaic energy sources) [32,33] could help in the analysis of plant operation and management protocol design. Recent development for the design of hybrid photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) solar systems, concentrated photovoltaics (CPV) and transparent solar photovoltaic (TPV) technologies highlights the importance of the nano-fluids and nano phase change materials as an alternative for the traditional [34e37]. Life cycle assessment of

renewable energy from solar PV technologies, and a comparative analysis through a life cycle approach of hybrid solar power system showed that mono-crystalline silicon PV technology has the highest energy consumption, longest payback time, and highest greenhouse gas emissions rate compared with other solar PV technologies [38,39]. The adoption of solar PV systems by households in Finland, a photovoltaic implementation in Romania, and development of large-scale solar district heating and solar PV/T systems [40e42] showed that solar energy is widely recognized as one of the most important renewable energy resources due to its even distribution, safety and serving as sources for others. The use of renewables for production of heat and electricity is Lithuania’s sustainable development way to energy supply security and energetic independence [43,44]. Analysis of sustainable liquid biofuel production and usage in Lithuania and microeconomic analysis for the formation of the renewable energy support policy were carried out in works [45,46]. The new National Energy Independence Strategy of the Republic of Lithuania approved in 2018 [47] has set targets to increase RES share in final energy consumption up to 30% by 2020, 45% by 2030 and 80% by 2050 years. It was estimated that wind power plants in Lithuania will become main generator of electricity and in 2030 they will produce more than 50% of electricity, and will make a significant contribution to the development of clean energy. The main objective of current paper was the analysis of the implementation of RES for energy production in Lithuania in compliance with the EU policy. Also, an analysis of environmental pollution reduction and implementation of EU directives and legal requirements in the country’s energy sector. The given information of the study will allow for municipalities and state organizations to select optimal measures that will intensify the usage of RES and reduction the environmental pollution. Therefore, the results will help to find the measures for reduction of the GHG emissions and will accelerate the implementation of the 2015 resolutions of the Paris climate change conference. 2. Current status of renewable energy usage in Lithuania and EU In 2012e2017, the structure of gross inland fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania has changed radically, and constantly increased the production and consumption of renewable energy. The largest share (about 34.2% in 2012) of gross inland fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania belonged to crude oil and petroleum products, natural gases consumption comprised 36.0% and renewable energy e 15.8% [48]. The share of electricity in gross inland consumption consisted 7.7% and coal, peat and other e 6.3%. In 2017, the share of crude oil and petroleum products in Lithuania increased to 38.2% of gross inland fuel and energy consumption, the share of natural gasses decreased to 25.0% and the share of RES increased to 20.4%, Fig. 1 [48,49]. In addition, the share of electricity in gross inland consumption increased to 9.7% and the share of coal, peat and other fuel e to 6.7%. Over the period of 2012e2017, the share of RES in Lithuania increased about 1.3 times, and RES became one of the main driving forces of Lithuania’s economy. Renewable energy consumption in Lithuania and EU-28 countries in 2012, progress in 2016 and the targets for 2020 are shown in Fig. 2 [50]. The Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament of the Council on promotion of the use of energy from RES sets the overall target to reach 20% renewable energy in gross final energy consumption of EU countries by 2020 [51]. The shares of RES in final energy consumption targets are quite different in EU-28 countries. Lithuania has a target to reach 23% of RES in gross final energy consumption.

Please cite this article as: V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas, Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.091

V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas / Renewable Energy xxx (xxxx) xxx

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2012 6.3%

Electricity

7.7%

15.8%

2017 9.7%

Crude oil and petroleum products Natural gas

20.4% 6.7%

Coal, peat and other 36.0%

25.0%

Renew able energy

34.2%

38.2%

Fig. 1. The Gross inland fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania in 2012 and 2017 [48,49].

electricity generation in Lithuania will achieve about 35% (with 30% share of RES). It was estimated that, by implementing the goals, wind energy will make up the largest share of electricity generated from RES e no less than 55% of the electricity our country needs by 2030 and 65% by e 2050, what contribute significantly to reducing CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. Increasing energy production from RES is one of the key targets of the new-updated National Strategy. The fact that green energy will be produced in Lithuania will also help to meet EU and global climate targets. It is projected that by 2020 about 70% and by 2030 as much as 90% of heat energy in Lithuania will be produced by RES. The Strategy envisages that over the next five years Lithuania intends to progress from an energy technology importing country to a country developing and exporting advanced technologies. It is determined that, by the end of 2018, all EU countries should present their national energy and climate plans, that should include actions allowing to achieve clean energy targets.

Lithuanian target stands in one rank with targets in Denmark 30%, Estonia 25%, France 23%, Croatia 20%, Romania 24% and Slovenia 25%. In 2016, energy consumption from RES in Denmark, Latvia, Austria and Finland was over 30%, and Sweden over 50%. Lithuanian progress (25.6%) in 2016 was in one range with Estonia (28.8%), Croatia (28.3%), Portugal (28.5%) and Romania (25.0%). The Lithuanian and EU’s energy and climate policy is based on the principles of greater integration, security of energy supply, competitiveness, and sustainable development. On June of 2018, Lithuanian Seimas approved the new-updated, progressive and innovative National Energy Independence Strategy [47], providing four main directions of Lithuanian energy policy: energy security, development of renewable energy, competitiveness and innovations. The strategy includes the country’s energy targets and guidelines on their implementation up to 2020 and 2030, and outlines the trends of energy development up to 2050. The strategy promotes the integration of Lithuanian energy systems and markets into the networks and systems of the European Union (EU) in the next five years (by 2021e2025), i.e. implementation of two major energy projects: construction of a gas pipeline between Lithuania and Poland and the synchronisation of power systems with the networks of Continental Europe. To increase the Lithuania’s energy security, it is going to develop reliable and competitive local energy production to reduce the country’s dependence on imported electricity. It is planned that by 2020

3. Material and methods The article was prepared in close cooperation with the specialists from the Statistics Lithuania, Lithuanian Association of the Heat Suppliers and specialists of energy companies and associations. The information invoked in preparation of the publication was taken from the publications of the Statistics Lithuania, Energy Balance

The share of RES in gross final energy consumption, %

60 2012 50

49

2016 T arget 2020

40

38

40

34

31

30 30 20

25

13

16

18 13

23 16

18

20

24 25

23

20

20

17 13

11

13

14

15

15

14

10

10

Sweden

United Kingdom EU 28

Slovakia Finland

Portugal Romania Slovenia

Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland

Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Croatia Italy Cyprus Latvia

Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Germany

0

Fig. 2. Renewable energy consumption in Lithuania and the EU-28 countries in 2012, progress in 2016 and the targets for 2020 [50].

Please cite this article as: V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas, Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.091

V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas / Renewable Energy xxx (xxxx) xxx

321.2

306.8

299.6

294.1

PJ 400 292.2

2012e2017 [48,49,52e54], Statistical Yearbooks of Lithuania 2012e2017 [55e58] and annual reports of energy companies as well as from publications and data bases prepared by international organizations (International Energy Agency, Eurostat) [59e64]. More than 100 research works and publications were overviewed and analysed. The analysis was based on the European and Lithuanian statistical data evaluation methods. Comparative indicators were prepared following methodology which was applied in the statistics of the International Energy Agency. According to this methodology indicators of the total final consumption include non-energy use and electricity consumption does not include transmission and distribution losses.

309.1

4

Coal and s econdary s olid fuel Petroleum products

300

200

Natural gas Electricity

100 Renewable and indigenous energy Total

0 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Fig. 4. Gross inland fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania in 2012e2017 [49,52e54].

4. Results and discussion 4.2. Evaluation the tendencies of fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania

4.1. Assessment of changes in the development of Lithuanian economy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the main indicators of the country’s economic development, which shows the nature of economic development, the speed and prospects and trends of the welfare of society. During the period of 2012e2017, Lithuanian economy has been developing steadily. Over the course of the years, GDP grew by 3.8, 3.5, 3.5, 2.0, 2.4 and 4.1% (the average annual growth rate was 3.2%), Fig. 3 [55e58]. In 2017, as compared to the previous year, Lithuania’s GDP increased by 4.1% (seasonally adjusted) and reached 42.2 EUR billion at current prices. GDP index in 2012 achieved 110% and in 2017e128%, as compared to 2010 [55e58]. During the period 2012e2017, GDP per capita at current prices in Lithuania increased about 1.3 times, from 11162 to 14917 EUR. In 2012 it was about 70% and in 2017 e about 78% of the EU average by Purchasing Power Standards and exceeded the level of Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Romania, Hungary, and Poland [61]. The volume index of GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS) is expressed in relation to the European Union EU-28 average set to equal 100. Lithuanian GDP per capita in PPS for the period 2012e2017 increased from 70 to 78% of the EU average. In Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Austria and Sweden the GDP per capita exceeded the EU average by 20e30%. Lithuania stands in one range with Estonian, Portugal, Slovakian and Poland GDP per capita in PPS. In 2017, the worst economic situation was in Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia (only 49e63% of the EU GDP per capita average).

14 12

110

114

119

121

123

128

All possible Lithuanian energy sector sustainable development scenarios were carried out in National Energy Independence Strategy of Lithuania of 2012 [1]. Lithuania has a specific target related with the implementation of the Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council on the promotion of the use of energy from the Renewable Energy Sources (RES) [51]. The Lithuanian target was to increase the share of RES in gross final energy consumption up to 23% until 2020. 4.2.1. Gross inland fuel and energy consumption and the share of RES In 2012e2017, gross inland fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania has changed by about 10% in the range 292e321 PJ, and in 2017 it achieved 321.2 PJ [49,52e54], Fig. 4. The largest share of gross inland fuel and energy consumption in 2017 was attributed to petroleum products (38.2%), natural gas (25.0%) and renewable and indigenous energy resources (24.6%), Fig. 5 [49]. Electricity consumption accounted for about 9.7%. For the period 2012e2017, the share of renewable and indigenous energy sources in Lithuania increased from 19.4% to 24.6%, and the share of electricity e from 7.7% to 9.7%. On the contrary, the share of natural gas consumption decreased from 36% to 25%. 4.2.2. Distribution of final fuel and energy by energy sources and consumer groups The final fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania in 2012e2017 has changed between 198 and 224 PJ [48,49,52e54].

140 120

9.7% 24.6%

100

Electricity

8

80

Petroleum products

6

60

%

10

3.8

4

3.5

4.1

3.5 2.0

2.5%

Natural gas

40

2.4

2

20

0

0 2012

2013

2014

GDP growth rates

2015

2016

2017

GDP index (2010–100%)

Fig. 3. Lithuanian gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates and index for 2012e2017.

38.2%

Coal and secondary solid f uel Renew able and indigenous energy

25.0% Fig. 5. The share of renewable and indigenous energy in gross inland fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania in 2017 [49].

Please cite this article as: V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas, Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.091

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Tendencies of final fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania in 2012e2017 are shown in Fig. 6. In 2012e2017, about one third of final fuel and energy consumption composed of petroleum products, which increased about 1.3 times during this period, from 68 to 89 PJ. The heat consumption in Lithuania in 2012e2017 was among 33e39 PJ, electricity consumption e 32e36 PJ, whereas natural gas consumption e 19e24 PJ. The wood and agricultural waste consumption was between 26 and 29 PJ, accounting for about 12e14% of the total final fuel and energy consumption. In Lithuanian households, the final fuel and energy consumption in 2012e2017 was between 57 and 64 PJ and consisted about 27e33% of all final fuel and energy needs. In Lithuanian industry, the final fuel and energy demand was between 40 and 43 PJ, what covered about 18e20% of all final fuel and energy needs. In commercial and public services sector, the final fuel and energy needs amounted about 12e13% of all final fuel and energy needs. From 2012 to 2017 years, a significant, about 34% increment (from 65 to 87 PJ) of fuel and energy consumption in Lithuanian transport sector was observed. In 2017, Lithuanian transport sector overtook approx 38.8% of final fuel and energy needs, about 27% of needs belonged for households, 19.2% e for industry and 14.7% e for other consumer groups. 4.3. Analysis of renewable energy composition and distribution in Lithuania Renewable energy composition and distribution in Lithuania in 2010e2017 is shown in Table 1, [49,55e58]. In 2012e2017, the largest share of renewable energy resources came from solid biofuels. In 2017, from firewood, wood and agricultural waste come about 80.6% of RES needs, much less e from wind energy (7.5%), liquid biofuel e (3.9%) and hydropower e (3.3%). Municipal and industrial waste consumption accounted for 2.2%, solar energy e 0.4% and geothermal energy e only 0.05% of these resources, Fig. 7, [49]. Furthermore, about 49% of renewable energy resources were transformed in CHP and heat plants. The usage of renewable energy sources by economic sectors in Lithuania showed that the share of firewood, wood and agricultural waste in final fuel and energy consumption of households accounted for 32.3%, industry e 9.3%, commercial and public services e 4.6%, agriculture and fishing e 13% and construction sector e 4%.

5

4.3.1. The firewood, wood and agricultural waste primary energy production, transformation input and final consumption The firewood, wood and agricultural waste is the main source of renewable energy in Lithuania comprising more than 80% of all renewable energy consumption. For the period 2012e2017, primary energy production and gross inland consumption of such RES increased about 30%, approximately from 42,000 to 53,000 TJ, Fig. 8. The transformation input (in public CHP plants, public heat plants and auto-producer heat plants) comprised about 40e50% of gross inland consumption. The final firewood, wood and agricultural waste consumption for the period 2012e2017 in Lithuania decreased about 12%, from 28,900 to 25,600 TJ. 4.3.2. Changes of gross inland wind, hydro, solar, renewable municipal waste and geothermal energy consumption Wind energy is next renewable energy source in Lithuania, according to the energy consumption value, comprising about 7.5% (in 2017) of the total gross inland renewable energy consumption. For the period 2012e2017, wind energy production and consumption increased significantly (about 2.5 times), from 2000 to about 5000 TJ, Fig. 9 [49,52e54]. Hydropower energy production and consumption for the same time period increased about 1.4 times, from 1520 to 2170 TJ, and renewable municipal and industrial waste consumption e about 3.0 times, from 460 to 1410 TJ. Solar energy production and consumption for the same time period in Lithuania increased from 8.0 to 245 TJ, and contrary geothermal energy consumption decreased from 160 to 30 TJ. 4.3.3. Tendencies of gross inland biodiesel, biogas, bioethanol and agricultural waste biogas energy consumption In 2012e2017, biodiesel gross inland and final energy consumption in Lithuania changed in the range of 2100e2420 TJ and consisted about 4.0% of the total renewable energy consumption in 2017, Fig. 10 [48,49,52e54]. For the same time period, gross inland energy consumption of bioethalol decreased by 1.5 times, from 465 to 308 TJ. On the contrary, gross inland energy consumption of biogas (total) increased about 2.8 times, from 484 to 1350 TJ. In that spacing, agricultural waste biogas consumption in Lithuania increased from 97 to 834 TJ, whereas in 2017 it consisted about 62% of the total biogas consumption.

PJ 100 Petroleum products 80 Heat 60

Electricity Natural gas

40

Wood and agricultural was te Coal and other fuel

20 0 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Fig. 6. Tendencies of final fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania in 2012e2017.

Please cite this article as: V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas, Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.091

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Table 1 Renewable energy composition and distribution in Lithuania in 2010e2017 [49,55e58]. Renewable energy balance, TJ Firewood, and wood waste Production of primary energy Gross inland consumption Transformation input Final consumption Agricultural waste Production of primary energy Gross inland consumption Transformation in public heat plants Final consumption Bioethanol Production of primary energy Gross inland consumption Non-energy use Final consumption Biodiesel Production of primary energy Gross inland consumption Final consumption Biogas Production of primary energy Gross inland consumption Transformation input Final consumption Municipal and industrial waste (RES) Production of primary energy Gross inland consumption Transformation in public CHP plants Hydropower Production of primary energy Gross inland consumption Transformation input Wind energy Production of primary energy Gross inland consumption Transformation input Solar energy Production of primary energy Gross inland consumption Transformation input Geothermal energy Production of primary energy Gross inland consumption Transformation input

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

41734 39084 10365 28657

40955 38083 9756 28279

41291 41765 12910 28802

43355 42689 14754 27886

46292 45186 18646 26487

49852 50212 24332 25839

49647 50266 24324 25898

53960 52494 27555 25492

228 239 144 92

212 203 113 89

242 208 112 96

238 262 99 163

457 202 105 97

585 178 68 110

591 206 85 121

535 201 90 111

1060 514 78 436

565 465 68 397

656 465 100 365

730 401 117 284

407 360 128 232

470 442 37 405

381 269 e 269

362 308 e 308

3299 1454 1454

2956 1481 1481

3948 2168 2168

4340 2173 2173

4429 2409 2409

4353 2422 2422

3816 2097 2097

4372 2244 2244

418 418 229 189

463 463 335 128

484 484 353 131

649 649 473 176

876 876 603 273

981 981 669 312

1341 1341 996 345

1350 1350 1004 346

e e e

e e e

e e e

468 461 461

475 477 477

676 659 659

1052 1043 1043

1416 1412 1406

1944 1944 1944

1728 1728 1728

1520 1520 1520

1876 1876 1876

1433 1433 1433

1259 1259 1259

1634 1634 1634

2169 2169 2169

806 806 806

1710 1710 1710

1944 1944 1944

2170 2170 2170

2301 2301 2301

2917 2917 2917

4089 4089 4089

4919 4919 4919

e e e

0,0 0,0 0,0

8 8 8

161 161 161

263 263 263

264 264 264

239 239 239

245 245 245

190 190 190

135 135 135

158 158 158

70 70 70

78 78 78

65 65 65

82 82 82

31 31 31

4.4. Increase of the share of RES in gross final electricity, heating and cooling and transport energy consumptions and the comparison with EU-28 countries The share of RES in gross final, electricity, heating and cooling, and transport energy consumption in Lithuania in 2012e2016 and forecast for 2020 are shown in Fig. 11. In 2012e2016, the share of RES in gross final fuel and energy consumptions in Lithuania increased about 1.2 times, from 21.4 to 25.6%. At the same time, the share of RES in gross final electricity

7.5%

2.2% 0.4%

Solid biofuels

3.3%

Biogas

3.9%

Liquid biofuel

2.1%

Hydropower Wind energy Municipal and indus trial was te 80.6%

Solar energy Geotherm al energy

Fig. 7. Composition and distribution of the renewable energy in gross inland fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania in 2017 [49].

consumptions increased from 10.9 to 16.8% and in gross final heating and cooling consumption e from 34.6 to 46.5%. As stated in the new National Energy Independence Strategy 2018 [47], Lithuania by 2020 is seeking to reach 30% RES share in electricity sector and about 70% RES share in heating and cooling sector. The share of RES in gross final energy consumption in transport should reach 10% by 2020.

TJ 55000 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2012

Production of p rimary energy Gross inland consump tion Transformation inp ut

Final consump tion

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Fig. 8. The firewood, wood and agricultural waste primary energy production, gross inland consumption, transformation input and final consumption in Lithuania in 2012e2017 [48,49,52e54].

Please cite this article as: V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas, Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.091

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TJ 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2012

Wind energy Hy drop ower M unicip al and industrial waste Solar energy Geothermal energy 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Fig. 9. Changes of gross inland wind, hydro, solar, renewable municipal waste and geothermal energy consumption in Lithuania in 2012e2017 [49,52e54].

TJ 2500

7

consumption in heating and cooling sector in Lithuania and EU-28 countries is shown in Fig. 13 [63]. In 2016, Lithuanian share of RES in gross final energy consumption in heating and cooling sector was 46.5% and it was in one line with Denmark (41.7%), Estonia (51.2%), Latvia (51.9%) and Finland (53.7%). The largest share of RES in gross final energy consumption in heating and cooling sector has been found in Sweden (68.6%) and Iceland (68.6%). Lithuania is striving to reach 70% RES share in heating and cooling sector until 2020. The share of RES in gross final energy consumption in transport sector in Lithuania and EU-28 countries is shown in Fig. 14. In 2012e2016, the share of RES in gross final energy consumption in transport sector in Lithuania was among 3.6e4.9%. It was in one range with the RES shares in the transport sector in Belgium (3.8e5.9%), Ireland (4.8e5.1%), Latvia (2.8e4.1%), Malta (3.2e5.4%) and United Kingdom (4.0e5.3%). In 2016, the highest share of RES in transport sector was defined in Sweden (30.3%), Norway (17.0%), Austria (10.6%) and France (8.9%). The challenge for Lithuania is to reach 10% RES share in transport sector by 2020 and 15% e by 2030.

Biodiesel

4.5. Mitigation of the environmental impact

2000 Biogas (total)

1500 1000

Bioethanol

500 Agricultural waste biogas

0 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Fig. 10. Tendencies of gross inland biodiesel, total biogas, bioethanol and agricultural waste biogas energy consumption in Lithuania in 2012e2017 [48,49,52e54].

The comparison of the share of RES in gross final energy consumption in electricity sector in Lithuania and EU-28 countries for 2012, 2014 and 2016 years is shown in Fig. 12. In 2016, the share of RES in gross final energy consumption in electricity sector in Austria and Sweden was around 60e70%, in Denmark, Croatia, Latvia, Portugal and Romania e about 40e50%, in Germany, Spain, Italy, Slovenia and Finland e over 30%. Lithuanian progress in 2016 was 16.8% and it was in one range with Belgium (15.8%), Bulgaria (19.2%), Czech Republic (13.6%), Estonia (15.5%), France (19.2%) and Poland (13.4%). The challenge for Lithuania is to reach 30% RES share in the electricity sector by 2020. The comparison of share of RES in gross final energy

%

4.5.1. Reduction emissions of greenhouse gasses in Lithuania and EU-28 countries Total emissions of greenhouse gases in Lithuania in 2012e2016 decreased about 3%, from 20,442 to 19,869 thousand tonnes of CO2 equivalent. By the sector activity, the emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHG) in Lithuanian energy sector decreased by 20% from 7314 to 5907 thousand tonnes of CO2 equivalent and contrary in transport it increased by 17% from 4586 to 5379 thousand tonnes of CO2 equivalent. In Lithuanian industry sector it ranged among 3000 to 3493 thousand tonnes of CO2 equivalent, while in other activities it increased by about 12% from 5041 to 5643 thousand tonnes of CO2 equivalent, Fig. 15. In 2016, the emissions of GHG in Lithuanian energy sector comprised 29.0%, industry sector e 16.8%, transport sector e 26.4% and other activities e 27.8% of the total GHG emissions. The comparison of emissions of greenhouse gasses in Lithuania and EU-28 countries are shown in Fig. 16. Lithuanian GHG emissions are well below Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain or Poland emissions and are comparable with Estonia, Croatia, Luxembourg, Latvia and Slovenia emissions. In 2016, Lithuanian GHG emissions were well below the Kyoto target of
8%, and were 58% lower than the base year 1990 level. For the period 2012e2016, total GHG emissions in all sectors of EU-28 countries decreased by about 5.3%, from 4690 to 4441

70

Share of RES in gross f inal heating and cooling consumption

60 50

Share of RES in gross f inal energy consumption

40 30

Share of RES in gross f inal electricity consumption

20 10

Share of RES in gross f inal consumption in transport

0 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2020 forecas t

Fig. 11. Increase of the share of RES in gross final, electricity, heating and cooling, and transport energy consumptions in Lithuania in 2012e2016 and forecast for 2020, [62e64].

Please cite this article as: V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas, Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.091

8

Share of RES in gross electricity consumption, % 110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

0

V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas / Renewable Energy xxx (xxxx) xxx

2012

2014

2016

2012

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Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Croatia Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden United Kingdom Iceland Norway EU 28

10

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Croatia Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden United Kingdom Iceland Norway EU 28

Fig. 12. The share of RES in gross final energy consumption in electricity sector for 2012, 2014 and 2016 years in Lithuania and EU-28 countries [62].

Share of RES in gross heating and cooling consumption, % 0

2012

2014

2016

Fig. 13. The share of RES in gross final energy consumption in heating and cooling sector for 2012, 2014 and 2016 years in Lithuania and EU-28 countries [63].

30

25

20

15

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Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Croatia Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden United Kingdom Iceland Norway EU 28

5

0

Fig. 14. The share of RES in gross final energy consumption in transport sector for 2012, 2014 and 2016 years in Lithuania and EU-28 countries [64].

Please cite this article as: V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas, Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.091

Share of the RES in gross energy consumption in transport, %

V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas / Renewable Energy xxx (xxxx) xxx

9

CO2 equivalent, thousand tonnes

8000

Energetics 6000

Transp ort 4000

Industry 2000

Other activities 0 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016*

Fig. 15. Emissions of greenhouse gases in Lithuania by sector activity in 2012e2016 [59]. (* - provisional estimates).

million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. 4.5.2. Reduction of air pollutants The emissions of air pollutants (carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, volatile organic compounds and particulate matters) of all economic activities in Lithuania in 2012e2016 are shown in Fig. 17. Total emission of air pollutants for such period decreased by 23% (from 368 to 282 thousand tonnes). The dominant air pollutant in Lithuania was a carbon monoxide emission. Over this time period, carbon monoxide emissions in Lithuania decreased by 31%, from 187 to 129 thousand tonnes. Volatile organic compounds emissions decreased by 5%, from 59 to 56 thousand tonnes. Sulphur dioxide emissions decreased by 50%, from 36 to 18 thousand tonnes. In 2016, about 45.7% of air pollutants in Lithuania belonged to Carbon monoxide, 19.8% e to Volatile organic compounds, 21.0% e to Nitrogen oxides and 7.4% e to Particulate matter emissions. About 6.1% belonged to Sulphur dioxide emissions. 4.6. Lithuanian energy sector in dynamics and the results sought for 2020, 2030 and 2050 By implementing the National Energy Independence Strategy of

2012 [1], Lithuanian energy sector has been substantially restructured in order to reduce and eventually eliminate the energy dependence on the Russian Federation. With regards to the results of the implementation and new EU energy and climate change targets that Lithuania should achieve by 2030, the new National Energy Independence Strategy of 2018 has been prepared, which includes state’s energy sector policy key targets, directions and implementation tasks up to 2020 and 2030, and a vision up to 2050 [47]. The new Energy Independence Strategy of Lithuania has set a goal of producing all necessary electricity and heat energy from renewables and other non-polluting sources within 30 years. Lithuanian energy sector dynamics and the results sought for 2020, 2030 and 2050 are shown in Table 2. The Strategy stipulates that electricity produced in Lithuania in 2030 should account for 70% of total final electricity consumed. A total of 45% of electricity and 90% of heat energy will have to be produced from RES. In the long term prospect, by 2050, all necessary electricity will be produced internally, with 100% of electricity and heat being produced from RES. Wind power plants in Lithuania will become main generator of electricity, and wind power will make a significant contribution to the development of clean energy. With technology development trends in mind, it is anticipated that in 2030 wind power plants will

1000

2014

800

2016 600

400

Sweden United Kingdom Norway Switzerland

Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Croatia

Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark

0

Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland

200

Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands

mln.tonnes of CO2 equivalent

2012

Fig. 16. Emissions of greenhouse gasses in Lithuania and EU-28 countries for 2012, 2014 and 2016 (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent), [60].

Please cite this article as: V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas, Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.091

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V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas / Renewable Energy xxx (xxxx) xxx

The largest share of RES came from solid biofuels. From firewood, wood and agricultural waste in 2017 come about 80.6% of RES needs, much less come from wind energy e 7.5%, liquid biofuel e 3.9%, hydropower e 3.3%, municipal and industrial waste e 2.2% and other e 2.5%. Primary energy production and gross inland consumption of firewood, wood and agricultural waste for the last five years increased about 30% and the final consumption decreased about 12%. The transformation input comprised about 30e50% of gross inland consumption. Wind energy was the next renewable energy source in Lithuania, according to the value of energy consumption. For the period 2012e2017, wind energy production and consumption increased from 2000 to about 5000 TJ, hydropower energy e from 1520 to 2170 TJ, and renewable municipal and industrial waste e from 460 to 1410 TJ. Biodiesel gross inland and final energy consumption in Lithuania has changed in the range of 2100e2422 TJ and bioethanol energy consumption e in the range 270e465 TJ, what together consisted about 3.9% of the total renewable energy consumption in 2017. Biogas gross inland energy consumption for the last five years increased from 484 to 1350 TJ. About 62% of the total biogas consumption in 2017 consisted agricultural waste biogas. The total emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) in Lithuania decreased about 3% from 20,442 to 19,869 thousand tonnes of CO2 equivalent. The emissions of GHG in Lithuanian energy sector decreased by 20% and contrary in transport it increased by 17%. In 2016, the GHG emissions in Lithuanian energy sector comprised 29.0%, transport sector e 26.4%, industry sector e 16.8% and in other activities e 27.8% of the total GHG emissions. Total emission of air pollutants (carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, volatile organic compounds and particulate matters) of all economic activities in Lithuania decreased by 23%. The dominant air pollutant was a carbon monoxide emission and it consisted about 45.7% in 2016. Over the last five years, carbon monoxide emissions in Lithuanian decreased by 31%. Detailed analysis of the RES implementation prediction prospects in Lithuanian energy sector discovered that by 2020, it will require up to 2.4 billion euros, and by 2030 e up to 10 billion euros in public, including the EU, and private funds for the development and modernisation of the energy sector. It was estimated that by 2020, the share of RES in final electricity consumption will grow to 30% and will constitute no less than 3 TWh. Electricity produced from wind will become the main source of RES energy and by 2020 might reach up to 44%, biomass e up to 26%, hydropower e up to 19%, energy produced in solar power plants e up to 6%, and biogas e up to 5% of all RES-generated electricity consumed. A detailed analysis of the RES use for energy production revealed that by 2030, no less than 45% of electrical power consumed in Lithuania will be produced from RES and will constitute no less than 7 TWh, and by 2050, electricity generated from RES will constitute no less than 100% of power consumed in Lithuania, and the amount of energy produced from RES will be no less than 18 TWh. The data provided in the article shows the guidelines for the use

400 Thousand tonnes

350

Total emissions

300

Carbon monoxide

250 Nitrogen oxides

200 150

Sulphur dioxide

100

Volatile organic compounds

50

Particulate matter

0 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016*

Fig. 17. Reduction of air pollutants in Lithuania in 2012e2016 [59]. (* - provisional estimates).

produce about 53% of electricity [47], about 22% of electricity will come from solar energy, 16% e from biofuel and 8% e from hydropower. Biogas could generate about 1% of electrical power. Strategy says that wind will represent 65% of RES-generated electricity share by 2050. To boost the development of RES-generated electricity (predominantly from solar), the Strategy encourages energy consumers to be become energy prosumers, i.e. to generate renewable energy for their own needs and receive a reward for surplus energy. Such consumers will account for at least 30% of all consumers by 2030 and 50% by 2050. 5. Conclusions It is disclosed that Lithuanian and EU’s energy sector is facing significant challenges, such as high dependence on energy imports and the issue of energy supply security, also the reduction of GHG emissions by the long term climate change targets. The article provides analysis of renewable energy implementation in Lithuania for the period 2012e2017 and defines the future policy and prospects. During this period Lithuanian energy sector has been substantially restructured in order to reduce and eventually eliminate the energy dependence on other countries. The gross domestic product (GDP) in Lithuania grew annually on average about 3.2% and for such period increased from 33.3 to 42.2 EUR billion at current prices. A detailed analysis of the energy sector showed that the gross inland fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania has changed by about 10%. For the last 5 years, the share of renewable energy in gross inland fuel and energy consumption increased from 15.8 to 20.4%, and RES became one of the main driving forces of country’s economy. The share of electricity production increased from 7.7 to 9.7%, and on the contrary, the share of natural gas consumption decreased from 36 to 25%. The final fuel and energy consumption in Lithuania has changed by about 12%. The share of RES in gross final fuel and energy consumptions in Lithuania for the last 5 years increased from 21.4 to 25.6%. At the same time, the share of RES in gross final electricity consumptions increased from 10.9 to 16.8% and in gross final heating and cooling consumption e from 34.6 to 46.5%. The share of RES in gross final energy consumption in transport sector has changed between 3.6 and 4.9%.

Table 2 Lithuanian energy sector dynamics and the results sought for 2020, 2030 and 2050 (in accordance with the strategic directions outlined in the new adopted National Energy Independence Strategy [47]). Year

2012

2014

2016

2020

2030

2050

RES share in the final energy consumption, % RES share in the district heat supply sector, % RES share in the transport sector, % RES share in the electricity sector, % Electricity production in Lithuania, %

21.4 34.5 4.9 10.9 43

23.6 40.6 4.3 13.7 36.6

25.6 46.5 3.6 16.8 34

30 70 10 30 35

45 90 15 45 70

80 100 50 100 100

Please cite this article as: V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas, Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.091

V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas / Renewable Energy xxx (xxxx) xxx

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V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas / Renewable Energy xxx (xxxx) xxx

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Abbreviations

CPV: Concentrated Photovoltaic EU: European Union EC: European Commission GDP: Gross Domestic Product GHG: Greenhouse Gases INPP: Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant PPS: Purchasing Power Standards PV: Photovoltaic PV/ T: Photovoltaic/ Thermal RES: Renewable Energy Sources RES-E: Renewable Electricity TPV: Transparent Photovoltaic UK: United Kingdom

CHP: Combined Heat and Power

Please cite this article as: V. Gaigalis, V. Katinas, Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.091