Appendices

Appendices

Appendices Appendix 1 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of initiating events at Baltic Sea waters lj Transitions el -ej Tr...
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Appendices

Appendix 1 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of initiating events at Baltic Sea waters lj

Transitions el -ej

Transition time θlj (min)

Number of transitions nlj

Mean value θ (min)

A

B

C

D

8935,200, 10,512,000, 4730,400, 14,191,200, 4204,800, 15,768,000, 11,563,200, 10,512,000, 4204,800, 13,665,600, 3153,600, 4204,800, 11,563,200, 18,396,000, 11,037,600, 15,768,000, 14,191,200, 7884,000 3153,600, 8935,200, 8409,600, 2102,400, 8409,600, 1576,800, 12,614,400, 4730,400, 14,716,800, 1051,200, 6307,200, 3679,200, 8409,600, 15,242,400, 2102,400, 6832,800, 262,800, 11,563,200, 9986,400, 12,614,400, 3679,200, 13,140,000, 15,768,000, 525,600, 525,600, 13,665,600, 19,972,800, 12,088,800, 16,819,200, 18,921,600, 6832,800, 9986,400, 7884,000, 5256,000, 20,498,400, 1051,200, 21,549,600 10,512,000, 18,396,000, 5781,600, 4730,400, 23,652,000 1051,200, 16,293,600, 15,768,000, 14,716,800, 14,716,800, 38,368,800, 16,819,200, 11,563,200, 2102,400, 2628,000 14,716,800, 2628,000, 3679,200, 14,716,800, 1051,200, 10,512,000, 10,512,000, 2102,400, 6832,800, 1051,200, 11,563,200, 6832,800, 9460,800, 19,447,200, 12,614,400, 22,600,800, 4730,400, 3679,200, 1051,200, 14,191,200, 1576,800, 14,716,800, 1576,800, 16,819,200 1576,800, 18,921,600, 10,512,000, 5256,000, 2628,000, 262,800, 525,600, 12,614,400, 525,600 1576,800 All 1 30, 15 1 10, 1

18

10,249,200

37

8942,302.70

5

12,614,400

10

13,402,800

24

8694,300

9

5869,200

1 15 2 1 2

1576,800 1 22.50 1 5.50

e -e 1

2

e 1 -e 3

e 1 -e 4 e 1 -e 5

e 1 -e 6

e 1 -e 7 e 1 -e 8 e 2 -e 1 e 2 -e 3 e 2 -e 6 e 2 -e 7

183

184

Appendices

e 3 -e 2

e 4 -e 1 e 4 -e 7 e 5 -e 1 e 5 -e 10 e 6 -e 1 e 6 -e 2 e 6 -e 3 e 6 -e 4 e 7 -e 1 e 7 -e 3 e 7 -e 13 e 8 -e 1 e 10 -e 1 e 13 -e 1

60, 2180, 5040, 360, 820, 30, 240, 240, 120, 120, 30, 11,520, 255,760, 120, 1440, 60, 30, 1440, 5760, 720, 720, 720, 30, 600, 720, 20, 180, 10, 1440, 4320, 180, 300, 120, 4320, 660, 900, 1440, 1440, 1440, 780, 1200, 2160, 720, 2160, 600, 5760, 2880, 1440, 540, 720, 1200, 20, 360, 660, 300, 120, 1440, 1440, 60, 120, 1440, 1200, 1440, 1440 All 1 1 60, 240, 20, 120, 120, 150, 60, 20, 680 10 120 40, 120 30, 40, 30, 30, 30, 30, 20, 10, 10, 30, 60, 15, 360, 30, 60, 120, 20, 90, 20, 10, 5760 15 60, 30, 15, 30, 1200, 20 6, 20, 10, 12, 60 1 5 10 10

65

1321.15

5 1 9 1 1 2 21

1 1 163.33 10 120 80 324.05

1 6 5 1 1 1 1

15 225.83 21.60 1 5 10 10

Appendix 2 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of initiating events at world sea waters lj

Transitions el -ej

Transition time θlj (min)

Number of transitions nlj

Mean value θ (min)

A

B

C

D

8935,200, 2102,400, 7884,000, 11,037,600, 2102,400, 1576,800, 12,614,400, 9460,800, 8409,600, 10,512,000, 3679,200, 9460,800, 1576,800, 7884,000, 10,512,000, 262,800, 14,191,200, 5256,000, 4730,400, 4730,400, 3679,200, 4730,400, 2102,400, 13,140,000, 11,563,200, 9460,800, 1576,800, 10,512,000, 13,665,600, 6832,800, 1051,200, 12,088,800, 7358,400, 9460,800, 9986,400, 525,600, 11,037,600, 4204,800, 14,191,200, 13,140,000, 12,614,400, 4730,400, 2102,400, 7884,000, 4730,400, 1051,200, 1576,800, 9986,400, 4204,800, 3679,200, 5256,000, 10,512,000, 5256,000, 8409,600, 8409,600, 16,819,200, 1576,800, 1051,200, 3679,200, 1576,800, 12,614,400, 4204,800, 9460,800, 4204,800, 15,768,000, 14,716,800, 10,512,000, 13,665,600, 15,242,400, 1576,800, 17,870,400, 4730,400, 12,088,800, 9460,800, 18,396,000, 3153,600, 11,563,200, 15,768,000, 12,614,400, 12,614,400, 16,293,600, 4204,800, 15,242,400, 1314,000,014,191,200, 11,563,200, 12,088,800, 8935,200, 12,088,800, 7358,400, 12,088,800, 1576,800, 13,140,000, 13,665,600, 3679,200, 7358,400, 1576,800, 11,037,600, 6307,200, 9460,800, 6307,200, 1051,200, 6832,800, 7358,400, 10,512,000,

401

8745,800.5

e -e 1

2

Appendices

13,140,000, 8935,200, 7884,000, 4204,800, 13,665,600, 18,921,600, 4204,800, 6307,200, 10,512,000, 3679,200, 12,088,800, 14,191,200, 7358,400, 12,088,800, 4204,800, 262,800, 14,716,800, 17,870,400, 7358,400, 525,600, 18,921,600, 4204,800, 6307,200, 3679,200, 262,800, 12,614,400, 14,716,800, 6832,800, 3679,200, 13,665,600, 6307,200, 1576,800, 6307,200, 2102,400, 7358,400, 4730,400, 4730,400, 1051,200, 15,768,000, 11,037,600, 5781,600, 7884,000, 7358,400, 14,191,200, 525,600, 1051,200, 13,140,000, 525,600, 3153,600, 1576,800, 2102,400, 15,242,400, 2102,400, 15,242,400, 6832,800, 262,800, 15,242,400, 16,293,600, 5781,600, 4204,800, 12,614,400, 16,293,600, 7358,400, 8409,600, 15,768,000, 5256,000, 1051,200, 13,665,600, 3679,200, 2102,400, 9986,400, 4730,400, 10,512,000, 16,819,200, 1576,800, 18,396,000, 7358,400, 11,563,200, 1051,200, 1576,800, 4730,400, 1051,200, 13,140,000, 1051,200, 17,344,800, 1051,200, 14,191,200, 18,921,600, 6832,800, 12,614,400, 6832,800, 10,512,000, 15,768,000, 6307,200, 21,024,000, 11,563,200, 10,512,000, 1576,800, 12,088,800, 7884,000, 10,512,000, 10,512,000, 16,819,200, 16,293,600, 11,037,600, 13,140,000, 2628,000, 11,563,200, 7884,000, 16,819,200, 26,280,000, 15,768,000, 6832,800, 18,396,000, 3153,600, 11,037,600, 11,037,600, 12,088,800, 11,563,200, 2102,400, 10,512,000, 13,140,000, 5256,000, 6307,200, 1051,200, 3153,600, 7884,000, 17,344,800, 1576,800, 525,600, 262,800, 8409,600, 16,293,600, 18,921,600, 8935,200, 13,665,600, 14,191,200, 11,563,200, 13,665,600, 16,293,600, 16,293,600, 4730,400, 3153,600, 15,768,000, 7358,400, 10,512,000, 1576,800, 17,344,800, 16,293,600, 11,037,600, 12,614,400, 2628,000, 7358,400, 1051,200, 13,665,600, 6832,800, 4204,800, 1051,200, 9986,400, 5256,000, 2628,000, 21,549,600, 18,921,600, 1051,200, 14,191,200, 525,600, 12,088,800, 2102,400, 9986,400, 5781,600, 2102,400, 21,549,600, 2102,400, 11,037,600, 15,768,000, 12,614,400, 262,800, 11,037,600, 6832,800, 1051,200, 11,037,600, 8409,600, 15,242,400, 262,800,007,358,400, 13,665,600, 6832,800, 7884,000, 11,037,600, 7358,400, 8409,600, 13,140,000, 6832,800, 21,549,600, 525,600, 2628,000, 525,600, 4730,400, 6832,800, 16,293,600, 10,512,000, 22,075,200, 7884,000, 12,614,400, 12,088,800, 16,819,200,

185

186

Appendices

e 1 -e 3

10,512,000, 1051,200, 9986,400, 525,600, 3153,600, 1576,800, 17,870,400, 1051,200, 5781,600, 1576,800, 22,075,200, 11,037,600, 2102,400, 5256,000, 15,768,000, 11,563,200, 14,191,200, 9460,800, 8409,600, 262,800, 3153,600, 6832,800, 14,191,200, 6832,800, 1576,800, 9460,800, 8409,600, 2102,400, 2102,400, 1576,800, 2628,000, 3679,200, 24,177,600, 8935,200, 1051,200, 26,805,600, 3679,200, 7358,400, 19,972,800, 8935,200, 14,716,800, 4204,800, 2628,000, 17,344,800, 8409,600, 21,549,600, 6307,200, 7884,000, 36,266,400, 6307,200, 4204,800, 13,140,000, 13,140,000, 525,600, 525,600, 6307,200, 11,563,200, 1576,800, 19,972,800, 15,768,000, 15,768,000, 26,280,000, 22,600,800, 2628,000, 7884,000, 22,600,800, 3679,200, 2628,000, 7358,400, 10,512,000, 3153,600, 525,600, 8935,200, 4730,400, 2628,000, 9460,800, 9986,400, 1576,800, 8935,200, 3153,600, 8935,200, 1576,800, 12,614,400, 3153,600, 13,665,600, 6832,800, 7884,000, 8409,600, 3153,600, 1051,200 7884,000, 3153,600, 8935,200, 8935,200, 8409,600, 2102,400, 5256,000, 8409,600, 2628,000, 1576,800, 11,037,600, 3679,200, 1051,200, 17,870,400, 3679,200, 8935,200, 13,140,000, 4204,800, 525,600, 15,242,400, 4204,800, 3679,200, 13,140,000, 5781,600, 12,614,400, 7884,000, 13,140,000, 4730,400, 15,768,000, 9986,400, 14,716,800, 1051,200, 14,716,800, 6832,800, 16,293,600, 1051,200, 15,768,000, 11,037,600, 13,140,000, 7884,000, 7884,000, 6307,200, 11,563,200, 18,921,600, 3679,200, 8409,600, 15,242,400, 15,768,000, 2628,000, 10,512,000, 2628,000, 1051,200, 2102,400, 3679,200, 10,512,000, 4730,400, 12,088,800, 12,614,400, 8935,200, 7884,000, 15,242,400, 8935,200, 15,242,400, 14,716,800, 8409,600, 6832,800, 3679,200, 1576,800, 3153,600, 14,191,200, 20,498,400, 10,512,000, 6307,200, 2102,400, 262,800, 3679,200, 11,563,200, 5256,000, 6307,200, 9460,800, 7358,400, 12,088,800, 262,800, 9986,400, 18,396,000, 12,614,400, 3679,200, 14,716,800, 3153,600, 1576,800, 19,972,800, 1576,800, 13,140,000, 20,498,400, 13,140,000, 2102,400, 4730,400, 3153,600, 13,665,600, 17,344,800, 15,768,000, 4204,800, 9986,400, 11,037,600, 525,600, 6832,800, 1576,800, 21,549,600, 22,075,200, 9986,400, 525,600, 6832,800, 9986,400, 22,075,200, 13,665,600, 262,800, 16,819,200, 5781,600,

369

11,095,287.8

Appendices

14,191,200, 3679,200, 4204,800, 15,242,400, 6307,200, 5256,000, 2628,000, 12,614,400, 15,768,000, 4204,800, 9986,400, 19,972,800, 1051,200, 12,614,400, 20,498,400, 14,716,800, 3153,600, 525,600, 19,972,800, 11,037,600, 12,088,800, 16,819,200, 1576,800, 13,665,600, 1051,200, 525,600, 13,665,600, 8409,600, 13,140,000, 19,447,200, 9986,400, 5781,600, 15,242,400, 6307,200, 3679,200, 2102,400, 7358,400, 18,921,600, 13,140,000, 13,665,600, 1051,200, 5256,000, 525,600, 6832,800, 15,242,400, 15,242,400, 20,498,400, 23,126,400, 26,280,000, 6832,800, 17,344,800, 31,536,000, 7884,000, 14,716,800, 16,819,200, 13,665,600, 7358,400, 21,549,600, 525,600, 22,075,200, 21,024,000, 19,972,800, 23,126,400, 19,972,800, 6832,800, 15,768,000, 10,512,000, 23,652,000, 21,024,000, 18,396,000, 16,819,200, 13,140,000, 13,665,600, 525,600, 14,191,200, 9986,400, 8935,200, 2628,000, 24,177,600, 18,396,000, 15,768,000, 3153,600, 19,447,200, 26,280,000, 11,037,600, 21,024,000, 5256,000, 5256,000, 3153,600, 262,800, 7884,000, 9986,400, 9986,400, 5256,000, 10,512,000, 9460,800, 18,396,000, 18,396,000, 15,768,000, 18,396,000, 26,280,000, 5256,000, 7884,000, 17,870,400, 11,563,200, 1051,200, 16,293,600, 525,600, 9460,800, 24,177,600, 23,126,400, 1576,800, 12,088,800, 15,768,000, 23,126,400, 4730,400, 17,344,800, 21,024,000, 16,819,200, 16,293,600, 9460,800, 14,716,800, 11,563,200, 10,512,000, 14,191,200, 8409,600, 8409,600, 13,665,600, 18,921,600, 8409,600, 3153,600, 2628,000, 19,972,800, 19,972,800, 23,652,000, 2102,400, 8409,600, 7884,000, 16,293,600, 21,549,600, 12,088,800, 24,177,600, 1051,200, 17,344,800, 2628,000, 3679,200, 15,242,400, 16,293,600, 17,344,800, 11,037,600, 525,600, 525,600, 13,665,600, 21,549,600, 23,652,000, 7358,400, 11,037,600, 27,331,200, 11,037,600, 16,819,200, 15,242,400, 2628,000, 13,665,600, 24,177,600, 14,191,200, 6307,200, 9986,400, 3153,600, 21,549,600, 20,498,400, 3153,600, 12,614,400, 5256,000, 1051,200, 20,498,400, 23,652,000, 5256,000, 2102,400, 11,563,200, 14,191,200, 12,088,800, 3153,600, 19,447,200, 16,819,200, 22,075,200, 22,075,200, 14,716,800, 20,498,400, 12,614,400, 22,075,200, 14,191,200, 7358,400, 21,024,000, 19,447,200, 16,819,200, 12,088,800,

187

188

Appendices

e 1 -e 4

e 1 -e 5

8935,200, 262,800, 14,191,200, 14,716,800, 14,716,800, 7358,400, 3153,600, 6307,200, 19,447,200, 10,512,000, 14,191,200, 10,512,000, 11,563,200, 9986,400, 16,819,200, 1576,800, 11,037,600, 10,512,000, 18,921,600, 3679,200, 7358,400, 25,228,800, 525,600, 7358,400, 22,600,800, 13,665,600, 1051,200, 14,716,800, 6307,200, 1576,800, 1051,200, 16,819,200, 21,549,600, 6832,800, 10,512,000, 17,344,800, 8935,200, 19,972,800, 3153,600, 16,819,200, 2102,400, 2628,000, 1051,200, 9986,400, 17,870,400, 20,498,400, 7358,400, 23,126,400, 19,972,800, 7358,400, 17,344,800, 7884,000, 7884,000, 2102,400, 13,665,600 11,563,200, 11,563,200, 6307,200, 8935,200, 13,140,000, 5256,000, 12,088,800, 4730,400, 262,800, 10,512,000, 7884,000, 5256,000, 18,396,000, 13,140,000, 7358,400, 12,614,400, 13,665,600, 10,512,000, 11,037,600, 6307,200, 11,563,200, 5781,600, 10,512,000, 11,037,600, 13,665,600, 262,800, 12,088,800, 13,665,600, 15,242,400, 13,140,000, 8935,200, 5781,600, 13,665,600, 525,600, 18,396,000, 8935,200, 19,447,200, 20,498,400, 4204,800, 12,088,800, 13,140,000, 5781,600, 262,800, 2102,400, 262,800, 2102,400, 2628,000, 262,800, 1051,200, 14,716,800, 4204,800, 2628,000, 15,242,400, 6307,200, 7358,400, 10,512,000, 5256,000, 15,768,000, 5781,600, 4204,800, 32,587,200, 6832,800, 16,819,200, 9986,400, 10,512,000, 4730,400, 18,921,600, 4730,400, 10,512,000, 23,652,000, 525,600, 2628,000, 12,614,400, 5781,600, 525,600, 8935,200, 17,870,400, 6832,800, 11,563,200, 22,075,200, 26,280,000, 2628,000, 4730,400, 16,293,600, 2102,400, 1576,800, 7358,400, 16,293,600, 13,665,600, 262,800, 2102,400, 1051,200, 19,447,200, 18,921,600, 12,614,400, 18,396,000, 525,600, 1051,200, 17,870,400, 15,242,400, 2628,000, 8935,200, 3153,600, 9986,400, 8409,600, 525,600, 19,447,200, 262,800, 525,600, 2102,400, 4204,800, 2628,000, 8935,200, 8935,200, 19,447,200, 2628,000, 5256,000, 2628,000, 10,512,000, 7884,000, 11,037,600, 7884,000, 3153,600 15,242,400, 14,716,800, 15,242,400, 9460,800, 12,614,400, 18,921,600, 4730,400, 1051,200, 14,191,200, 7358,400, 22,600,800, 14,716,800, 9986,400, 6307,200, 12,088,800, 11,563,200, 16,293,600, 16,293,600,

123

9005,707.32

268

11,267,059.7

Appendices

8409,600, 15,768,000, 13,140,000, 14,716,800, 5781,600, 9986,400, 13,665,600, 14,716,800, 2102,400, 3153,600, 525,600, 14,191,200, 10,512,000, 11,037,600, 1576,800, 13,140,000, 16,293,600, 13,665,600, 11,037,600, 2102,400, 22,075,200, 2102,400, 4204,800, 3153,600, 12,088,800, 14,191,200, 5781,600, 15,242,400, 4730,400, 6307,200, 6307,200, 19,972,800, 9460,800, 5256,000, 1576,800, 10,512,000, 17,344,800, 6307,200, 3153,600, 525,600, 34,164,000, 1051,200, 11,037,600, 12,088,800, 23,652,000, 2628,000, 7358,400, 11,563,200, 14,191,200, 14,191,200, 1051,200, 15,768,000, 10,512,000, 13,140,000, 17,344,800, 13,140,000, 5781,600, 13,140,000, 11,563,200, 7884,000, 14,191,200, 4204,800, 5781,600, 9460,800, 12,088,800, 14,191,200, 16,819,200, 4204,800, 12,088,800, 12,614,400, 13,140,000, 10,512,000, 22,600,800, 3153,600, 14,716,800, 4730,400, 14,716,800, 5781,600, 38,368,800, 4204,800, 16,819,200, 12,088,800, 15,242,400, 22,075,200, 14,716,800, 3679,200, 13,665,600, 6832,800, 5256,000, 7358,400, 2628,000, 16,819,200, 19,972,800, 25,754,400, 12,088,800, 23,126,400, 26,280,000, 14,191,200, 4204,800, 15,768,000, 13,140,000, 15,768,000, 14,191,200, 15,768,000, 8409,600, 15,768,000, 17,344,800, 21,024,000, 15,242,400, 15,768,000, 8409,600, 18,921,600, 10,512,000, 32,061,600, 10,512,000, 23,652,000, 26,805,600, 5256,000, 14,191,200, 6832,800, 9986,400, 9986,400, 4204,800, 11,563,200, 4204,800, 16,819,200, 1051,200, 13,665,600, 20,498,400, 5256,000, 14,191,200, 9460,800, 3679,200, 4730,400, 13,140,000, 18,921,600, 3153,600, 10,512,000, 7358,400, 23,126,400, 13,140,000, 1576,800, 14,191,200, 11,037,600, 18,396,000, 11,037,600, 17,870,400, 5781,600, 1524,240, 10,512,000, 9986,400, 5781,600, 3153,600, 15,768,000, 7884,000, 26,280,000, 6832,800, 4730,400, 21,024,000, 21,549,600, 13,140,000, 16,293,600, 16,293,600, 10,512,000, 11,563,200, 630,720, 9986,400, 2628,000, 11,037,600, 16,293,600, 19,447,200, 262,800, 21,024,000, 7358,400, 14,716,800, 7358,400, 10,512,000, 13,665,600, 5256,000, 16,819,200, 21,024,000, 22,075,200, 1419,120, 1576,800, 14,191,200, 4204,800, 2102,400, 10,512,000, 1576,800, 22,600,800, 18,396,000, 2628,000, 5256,000,

189

190

Appendices

e 1 -e 6

13,140,000, 10,512,000, 13,665,600, 7358,400, 7358,400, 27,856,800, 5781,600, 25,600, 2628,000, 19,972,800, 30,484,800, 2102,400, 1051,200, 5781,600, 1576,800, 262,800, 16,293,600, 1576,800, 11,563,200, 12,614,400, 9460,800, 16,819,200, 9986,400, 7358,400, 1471,680, 3679,200, 5781,600, 525,600, 19,972,800, 8935,200, 14,716,800, 2102,400, 19,447,200, 8935,200, 12,614,400, 9460,800, 19,972,800, 14,716,800, 1576,800, 8409,600, 16,293,600, 16,819,200, 2628,000, 9986,400, 2628,000, 17,344,800, 4204,800, 3153,600, 16,819,200, 10,512,000, 2102,400, 12,614,400, 5256,000, 2628,000, 5256,000, 7884,000, 7884,000 8409,600, 8935,200, 11,563,200, 14,716,800, 13,140,000, 16,293,600, 3679,200, 10,512,000, 19,447,200, 2628,000, 2102,400, 3679,200, 11,037,600, 11,037,600, 13,665,600, 2102,400, 10,512,000, 13,140,000, 8935,200, 8409,600, 15,768,000, 14,716,800, 14,716,800, 12,088,800, 1051,200, 1576,800, 11,037,600, 12,614,400, 5781,600, 5781,600, 15,768,000, 7884,000, 13,140,000, 5781,600, 2628,000, 7884,000, 6832,800, 262,800, 8409,600, 4204,800, 8409,600, 13,140,000, 2102,400, 11,563,200, 7884,000, 13,140,000, 18,921,600, 8409,600, 2628,000, 10,512,000, 19,972,800, 11,563,200, 6832,800, 7884,000, 10,512,000, 9460,800, 9460,800, 2102,400, 4730,400, 11,563,200, 6307,200, 832,800, 5781,600, 17,870,400, 9460,800, 14,191,200, 16,293,600, 1051,200, 5256,000, 1051,200, 2102,400, 1051,200, 6307,200, 6307,200, 17,870,400, 11,563,200, 12,088,800, 17,870,400, 6832,800, 9460,800, 262,800, 15,242,400, 12,614,400, 5256,000, 12,614,400, 10,512,000, 15,768,000, 15,768,000, 15,768,000, 19,447,200, 3153,600, 25,228,800, 17,870,400, 22,075,200, 15,768,000, 12,614,400, 4730,400, 1051,200, 12,614,400, 22,600,800, 13,665,600, 11,563,200, 4204,800, 19,972,800, 2628,000, 7358,400, 525,600, 4730,400, 7884,000, 14,716,800, 3679,200, 3679,200, 1051,200, 6832,800, 6832,800, 13,140,000, 14,191,200, 12,614,400, 1576,800, 15,242,400, 8409,600, 15,768,000, 262,800, 6832,800, 11,037,600, 15,242,400, 5256,000, 12,088,800, 14,716,800, 1576,800, 8409,600, 15,242,400, 21,549,600, 10,512,000, 10,512,000, 13,665,600, 12,088,800, 5781,600, 2628,000, 3679,200, 8409,600, 12,088,800, 18,396,000, 15,242,400, 10,512,000,

234

10,655,753.85

Appendices

e 1 -e 7

21,024,000, 2102,400, 16,819,200, 10,512,000, 15,768,000, 15,768,000, 7884,000, 10,512,000, 5256,000, 21,024,000, 10,512,000, 15,768,000, 21,024,000, 15,768,000, 10,512,000, 10,512,000, 21,024,000, 6307,200, 20,498,400, 5781,600, 15,768,000, 6832,800, 3153,600, 16,819,200, 3153,600, 18,921,600, 262,800, 1576,800, 3153,600, 19,972,800, 7358,400, 13,665,600, 17,870,400, 23,652,000, 15,242,400, 1576,800, 21,549,600, 18,921,600, 3679,200, 31,536,000, 11,037,600, 2102,400, 14,191,200, 48,880,800, 8409,600, 21,549,600, 525,600, 1576,800, 21,549,600, 7884,000, 15,242,400, 6832,800, 5781,600, 1576,800, 14,191,200, 3153,600, 21,024,000, 14,716,800, 5256,000, 1051,200, 10,512,000, 22,075,200, 8409,600, 14,191,200, 23,652,000, 11,037,600, 3153,600, 8935,200, 9986,400, 6832,800, 3679,200, 7884,000, 15,768,000, 22,075,200, 24,177,600, 4204,800, 15,768,000, 2102,400, 9460,800, 9460,800, 19,972,800, 14,716,800, 4204,800, 17,870,400, 3153,600, 17,870,400, 11,563,200, 3153,600, 16,819,200 262,800, 1576,800, 5256,000, 525,600, 4204,800, 15,242,400, 12,088,800, 8409,600, 7884,000, 15,242,400, 4204,800, 14,191,200, 8409,600, 3679,200, 15,768,000, 525,600, 7884,000, 11,037,600, 7358,400, 13,665,600, 11,037,600, 12,614,400, 9460,800, 9460,800, 17,870,400, 9460,800, 12,614,400, 25,228,800, 1576,800, 8409,600, 16,819,200, 8409,600, 13,665,600, 14,716,800, 6307,200, 4204,800, 7884,000, 11,563,200, 4204,800, 14,716,800, 26,280,000, 13,665,600, 14,716,800, 18,921,600, 19,972,800, 21,024,000, 14,716,800, 1576,800, 10,512,000, 3153,600, 15,242,400, 4730,400, 16,819,200, 5256,000, 13,665,600, 9986,400, 17,344,800, 17,344,800, 15,768,000, 5256,000, 21,024,000, 23,126,400, 5781,600, 7358,400, 9460,800, 17,870,400, 3153,600, 15,242,400, 21,024,000, 15,242,400, 3679,200, 14,716,800, 15,768,000, 6307,200, 14,191,200, 21,024,000, 16,819,200, 16,819,200, 14,716,800, 19,972,800, 15,768,000, 12,614,400, 39,945,600, 5256,000, 17,870,400, 5256,000, 19,447,200, 18,921,600, 19,972,800, 18,396,000, 14,716,800, 21,024,000, 3679,200, 5256,000, 9986,400, 9986,400, 14,191,200, 8409,600, 17,870,400, 525,600, 9460,800, 5256,000, 2628,000, 1576,800, 2102,400, 11,037,600, 11,563,200, 15,768,000, 262,800,

205

12,392,622.44

191

192

Appendices

e 1 -e 8

e 2 -e 1 e 2 -e 3

e 2 -e 4 e 2 -e 5 e 2 -e 6 e 2 -e 7 e 2 -e 10 e 2 -e 11

6307,200, 7358,400, 3679,200, 21,549,600, 16,819,200, 21,549,600, 5781,600, 12,088,800, 8409,600, 21,549,600, 14,716,800, 8409,600, 11,563,200, 6307,200, 15,768,000, 5781,600, 16,293,600, 11,037,600, 13,665,600, 21,549,600, 5781,600, 13,665,600, 19,447,200, 14,191,200, 21,549,600, 14,191,200, 3153,600, 23,126,400, 11,563,200, 16,293,600, 13,140,000, 3153,600, 21,024,000, 16,819,200, 15,242,400, 22,075,200, 19,972,800, 6307,200, 15,242,400, 2102,400, 14,191,200, 525,600, 22,075,200, 18,396,000, 19,447,200, 19,972,800, 16,819,200, 20,498,400, 16,819,200, 14,191,200, 22,075,200, 12,088,800, 14,716,800, 26,280,000, 12,088,800, 6832,800, 19,447,200, 19,447,200, 22,075,200, 22,075,200, 3679,200, 20,498,400, 2628,000, 8935,200, 16,293,600, 262,800, 8409,600, 2628,000, 21,024,000, 6832,800, 7358,400, 22,600,800, 22,075,200, 1576,800, 18,921,600, 18,921,600, 15,242,400, 19,972,800, 2628,000, 13,665,600, 525,600, 15,768,000, 22,600,800, 525,600, 23,126,400, 10,512,000, 23,126,400, 7884,000, 2102,400, 18,921,600, 10,512,000, 12,614,400, 7884,000, 525,600, 7884,000, 7884,000 11,037,600, 4204,800, 15,242,400, 3679,200, 6832,800, 11,037,600, 3679,200, 262,800, 525,600, 16,293,600, 14,191,200, 10,512,000, 9460,800, 525,600, 525,600, 4204,800, 4204,800, 21,024,000, 2628,000, 1576,800, 16,819,200, 4730,400, 1576,800, 525,600, 1051,200, 7884,000, 7884,000, 7884,000, 1576,800, 7358,400 All 1 40, 30, 10, 10, 15, 60, 60, 240, 15, 10, 10, 45, 15, 10, 20, 15, 20, 60, 10, 15, 20, 240, 240, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 300, 10, 10, 30, 10, 10, 10, 10, 20, 10, 10, 10, 30, 30, 10, 60, 30, 10, 30, 10, 15, 20, 35, 30, 30, 10, 15, 30, 20, 30, 15, 20, 600, 30, 1860, 20, 20, 30, 30, 60, 15, 20, 10, 20, 15, 10, 30, 15, 30, 30, 10, 10, 30, 15, 20, 10, 20, 30, 20, 30, 10, 30, 30, 15, 2, 20, 50, 840, 20, 60, 120, 10, 15, 30, 60, 15, 10, 30, 60, 30, 10, 5, 10, 15, 30, 60, 10, 15, 30, 10, 20, 15, 10, 30, 40, 60 1, 40, 5 5, 10, 5, 1 10, 10, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 10, 30, 60, 10, 1, 10, 10, 10, 15, 1, 1, 10, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 10, 1, 5, 10, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 60, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 10, 1, 1 1, 5 1

30

198,939,600

237 125

1 42.12

3 4 22

15.33 5.25 1.86

40

7.25

2 1

3 1

Appendices

e 3 -e 1

1440, 60, 120, 28,800, 2180, 5040, 360, 120, 820, 300, 30, 120, 120, 240, 240, 1440, 10,080, 15, 120, 14,400, 2880, 9705, 225, 240, 21,480, 120, 1440, 1905, 180, 30, 10, 150, 120, 1440, 2880, 10, 120, 1440, 10, 30, 30, 20, 20, 30,240, 10,080, 1440, 11,520, 192, 4320, 2880, 10, 25, 55, 20, 60, 20, 1440, 720, 1440, 2880, 720, 1440, 10, 8640, 1440, 360, 5760, 1440, 12, 120, 20, 1440, 1440, 120, 1200, 7200, 1440, 60, 2880, 120, 4320, 1200, 20,160, 7200, 8640, 1440, 30, 1440, 1440, 5760, 100, 1440, 14,400, 10, 10, 10, 1320, 720, 1440, 1440, 2880, 16,020, 2880, 20,160, 2880, 150, 20, 60, 3420, 390, 240, 5760, 120, 2880, 1440, 20,160, 2880, 720, 120, 1440, 1440, 5430, 7261, 720, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 4320, 270, 180, 15, 1440, 1440, 30, 702, 2880, 2880, 600, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1800, 1440, 720, 2160, 180, 1440, 220, 20, 60, 180, 600, 4320, 1440, 10, 135, 1440, 2880, 4320, 14,400, 2880, 720, 420, 7200, 480, 4320, 1410, 1440, 30, 4320, 180, 1440, 1440, 600, 1200, 2880, 14,400, 14,400, 720, 30, 4320, 330, 5, 60, 1440, 4320, 5760, 1440, 120, 300, 150, 4320, 200, 30, 1440, 1440, 660, 5420, 120, 4320, 1440, 1440, 1440, 4320, 2880, 1440, 5760, 720, 300, 2880, 660, 120, 900, 14,400, 2880, 1440, 1440, 600, 720, 2160, 400, 180, 1440, 60, 720, 1440, 500, 1440, 840, 1440, 15, 600, 1200, 4320, 1440, 2880, 360, 18,720, 2160, 1440, 600, 780, 4320, 7200, 360, 1440, 1200, 2160, 2880, 120, 1440, 5760, 120, 30, 300, 360, 1440, 720, 1440, 720, 240, 120, 600, 1440, 2160, 600, 180, 2160, 1440, 900, 180, 1200, 720, 5760, 2880, 420, 1440, 30, 2160, 420, 5760, 1440, 540, 720, 300, 240, 420, 540, 90, 720, 1440, 1200, 1200, 1440, 1440, 2880, 720, 4320, 4320, 1440, 820, 14,400, 4320, 240, 20, 2880, 720, 720, 720, 2880, 2160, 360, 1440, 2160, 2160, 1440, 2880, 5760, 2160, 2880, 259,200, 2880, 900, 120, 28,800, 1440, 4320, 4320, 300, 5760, 1440, 780, 2160, 300, 480, 60, 2160, 450, 720, 480, 600, 47,520, 1200, 840, 5760, 2880, 4320, 14,400, 2160, 600, 4320, 60, 1440, 2600, 720, 420, 480, 150, 2160, 45, 2880, 7200, 2160, 600, 2880, 60, 1440, 1440, 660, 720, 1200, 1440, 840, 2880, 1440, 14,400, 720, 10,080, 1440, 540, 2880, 120, 4320, 800, 25,920, 5760, 1440, 1440, 4320, 2880, 2880, 1440, 660, 600, 1440, 1440, 600, 540, 1440, 600, 840, 300, 34,560, 480, 1440, 40,320, 240, 180, 570, 14,400, 10,080, 1440, 2160, 2880, 5760, 1440, 25,920, 720, 540, 720, 1440, 1440, 40,320, 120, 2880, 240, 1440, 660, 86,400, 720, 420, 5760, 1440, 2880, 4320, 1440, 4320, 180, 180, 360, 30, 1440, 1440, 720, 7200, 480, 7200, 1440, 480, 1440, 720, 820, 780, 180, 4320, 115,200,

753

4500.64

193

194

Appendices

e 3 -e 2 e 3 -e 6 e 3 -e 9 e 4 -e 1 e 4 -e 2 e 4 -e 3 e 4 -e 6 e 4 -e 7 e 5 -e 1

1440, 660, 2880, 2880, 120, 4320, 7200, 540, 2880, 4320, 5760, 420, 720, 5760, 5760, 720, 7200, 1440, 300, 1440, 2160, 720, 780, 2880, 1440, 2160, 660, 720, 5760, 360, 2880, 72,000, 3600, 720, 660, 2880, 720, 2160, 780, 7200, 4320, 1440, 2880, 1440, 1440, 7200, 17,280, 2880, 3500, 302,400, 2880, 690, 2160, 2160, 1440, 600, 2880, 780, 660, 4320, 1200, 2160, 420, 300, 2880, 1440, 3060, 800, 300, 1440, 5760, 1440, 780, 5760, 660, 720, 60, 170, 2880, 720, 360, 60, 2160, 1440, 158,400, 720, 120, 1440, 660, 2880, 2880, 5760, 2160, 2880, 1440, 1440, 720, 5760, 15, 1440, 420, 120, 360, 2880, 2880, 2880, 1440, 102,240, 1440, 7200, 6600, 60, 28,800, 5760, 420, 360, 4800, 480, 420, 480, 2880, 2880, 7200, 15, 4320, 3600, 240, 720, 4320, 60, 7200, 120, 150, 2880, 720, 5760, 4320, 7200, 120, 2880, 6600, 6480, 4320, 120, 300, 2880, 4320, 780, 840, 25,920, 600, 1440, 840, 120, 2880, 5760, 840, 2160, 600, 89,280, 8640, 2880, 5760, 600, 7200, 2880, 540, 2880, 1440, 2160, 4320, 360, 1440, 2880, 60, 2160, 120, 7200, 840, 4400, 1440, 540, 360, 2880, 1200, 60, 8640, 5760, 600, 7200, 2160, 300, 18,720, 720, 600, 720, 2160, 4320, 2880, 120, 660, 420, 7200, 8640, 5760, 10,080, 1440, 780, 680, 660, 1440, 2880, 720, 4320, 540, 10,080, 2880, 420, 10,080, 5760, 150, 4320, 420, 300, 1440, 25,920, 120, 90, 720, 840, 1440, 900, 240, 660, 1440, 840, 60, 60, 480, 420, 2880, 660, 660, 840, 120, 1200, 1320, 840, 2880, 880, 600, 440, 1440, 5760, 4320, 1320, 1440, 5760, 4320, 720, 2880, 1440, 470, 7200, 720, 1440, 1440, 890, 2880, 1200, 2160, 4320, 1440, 2880, 600, 2880, 1440, 1140, 780, 1040, 840, 60, 4320, 880, 4320, 480, 600, 1440, 43,200, 5760, 8640, 1440, 28,800, 43,200, 1440, 4320 10, 120 10, 10, 1, 5 45 All 1 5, 5, 30 1, 20, 600, 240, 10, 10, 30, 10, 5, 20, 40, 5, 40 240, 1, 1, 10, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 1, 1, 10, 10, 15, 1, 5, 1, 5, 1, 1, 10, 1 30, 20, 70, 20, 60, 180, 10, 320, 60, 180, 60, 240, 30, 20, 20, 180, 300, 30, 60, 45, 180, 60, 150, 120, 120, 60, 3, 30, 45, 60, 120, 7200, 60, 3600, 1860, 70, 60, 180, 240, 20, 240, 180, 15, 30, 30, 300, 315, 360, 150, 135, 60, 330, 60, 30, 240, 135, 120, 20, 60, 140, 15, 10, 30, 60, 360, 60, 180, 360, 90, 120, 15, 120, 280, 30, 30, 25, 45, 90, 60, 80, 240, 90, 150, 45, 60, 300, 360, 60, 420, 50, 90, 90, 60, 20, 360, 240, 80, 250, 2880, 60, 60, 45, 660, 150,

2 4 1 111 3 13

65 6.50 45 1 13.33 79.31

9 13 210

28.56 4.77 380.18

Appendices

e 5 -e 9 e 5 -e 10 e 5 -e 12 e 5 -e 16 e 6 -e 1

e 6 -e 2 e 6 -e 3

e 6 -e 4 e 6 -e 10 e 6 -e 11 e 7 -e 1

300, 1440, 60, 40, 90, 50, 30, 30, 210, 1440, 30, 1440, 20, 300, 100, 1440, 120, 10, 60, 30, 120, 300, 15, 300, 60, 60, 360, 420, 30, 150, 510, 16,200, 240, 210, 50, 60, 60, 240, 90, 310, 120, 180, 120, 60, 300, 360, 120, 80, 120, 150, 120, 660, 60, 150, 360, 150, 180, 200, 120, 60, 1200, 60, 300, 360, 660, 60, 300, 180, 420, 60, 240, 420, 60, 60, 180, 30, 300, 360, 40, 150, 120, 120, 180, 60, 20, 80, 240, 30, 150, 80, 150, 660, 680, 30, 180, 60, 60, 150, 90, 180, 240, 300, 80, 8640, 240, 2880 5, 90, 20, 60, 120, 60, 30, 20, 942, 420, 40, 5760, 60, 25, 60, 5760, 5760, 60 1, 1, 1, 1, 20, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 120, 60, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 30, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 15 15, 60, 20, 10, 60 1440, 60, 120, 585, 15, 60, 240, 60, 1440, 300, 60, 60, 1440, 60, 360, 960, 5760, 60, 1440, 1020, 120, 7200, 1440, 360, 60, 90, 180, 150, 180, 120, 1440, 90, 2160, 480, 60, 5, 240, 120, 1440, 300, 2880, 20, 560, 300, 1440, 1440, 600, 5760, 1440, 150, 600, 600, 10,080, 600, 120, 30, 620, 360, 360, 60, 60, 30, 300, 1440, 1440, 20, 20, 30, 7, 4320, 360, 70, 60, 650, 1440, 600, 60, 30, 780, 2200, 345, 2880, 600, 100, 2880, 1440, 80, 320, 2880, 90, 190, 1440, 6480, 360, 20, 1440, 150, 10, 30, 210, 120, 90, 50, 180, 120, 60, 120, 20, 720, 130, 1440, 1440, 180, 20, 80, 660, 150, 90, 120, 20, 20, 300, 15, 60, 110, 130, 90 10, 230, 30, 1, 3, 10, 40, 120, 60, 5, 60, 5, 120, 1, 10, 5, 75, 15, 10, 5, 20, 15, 30, 10, 15, 10, 10, 20 60, 30, 20, 18, 15, 40, 20, 30, 40,320, 20, 15, 10, 30, 30, 80, 60, 20, 30, 10, 10, 20, 10, 10, 10, 10, 120, 600, 15, 15, 70, 10, 10, 30, 60, 2, 15, 60, 360, 30, 1440, 20, 15, 60, 60, 120, 20, 90, 30, 60, 20, 20, 20, 20, 90, 40, 30, 10, 60, 10, 10, 60, 240, 30, 10, 10, 120, 720, 10, 30, 20, 10, 60, 20, 30, 20, 20, 90, 30, 60, 10, 20, 60, 120, 10, 30, 60, 20, 5760 10, 240, 15, 30, 15, 10, 20, 60, 20, 30, 5, 5, 30, 5, 10, 5, 10, 20, 5, 5, 15, 5 100, 45, 10, 10 1, 10, 180, 60, 10, 120, 20, 1, 10, 5, 5, 300, 15, 10 20, 30, 120, 480, 20, 10, 40, 1440, 60, 30, 30, 60, 60, 20, 1440, 100, 90, 180, 20, 15, 2160, 20, 1440, 150, 120, 2880, 420, 120, 180, 150, 120, 180, 1440, 60, 60, 10, 30, 20, 40, 45, 30, 15, 15, 30, 2880, 17,280, 90, 60, 20, 40, 50, 40, 360, 90, 1440, 30, 1440, 300, 40, 20, 360, 240, 300, 420, 45, 120, 180, 120, 90, 530, 100, 60, 30, 120, 240, 240, 60, 60, 100, 30, 135, 60, 25, 25, 90, 120, 60, 600, 60, 20, 20, 780, 60, 160, 120, 120, 90, 45, 30, 45, 1200, 20, 120, 240, 180, 20, 27,360

18

1071.67

39

10.59

1 5 127

15 33 804.66

28

35.36

88

593.75

22

25.91

4 14

41.25 53.36

107

686.26

195

196

Appendices

e 7 -e 3

6, 10, 60, 10, 4140, 120, 60, 15, 160, 4320, 60, 10, 4320, 10, 30, 1, 1530, 1440, 20, 30, 30, 10, 30, 220, 10, 10, 90, 480, 15, 30, 25, 1580, 600, 20, 20, 10, 10, 30, 60, 20, 60, 1020, 30, 30, 20, 30, 180, 10, 60, 10, 15, 30, 30, 5, 10, 10, 20, 90, 50, 20, 15, 15, 15, 20, 25, 25, 60, 10, 40, 380, 20, 15, 15, 10, 20, 20, 15, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 60, 1, 10, 20, 60, 60, 100, 10, 60, 10, 20, 4320, 270, 30, 15, 15, 180, 10, 30, 240, 30, 20, 15, 10, 5, 60, 10, 1, 10, 1, 30, 15, 15, 60, 60, 15, 20, 10, 10, 5, 1215, 10, 15, 20, 60, 20, 10, 120, 60, 60, 20, 120, 20, 20, 15, 30, 60, 30 5 1, 5, 30 1, 1, 10 15, 10, 1, 1, 10 120, 20, 300, 120, 25, 30, 150, 30, 60, 30, 180, 15, 5, 5, 10, 10, 20, 5, 730, 40, 2160, 5, 15, 45, 30, 20, 5, 20 1, 1, 5, 10 20, 20, 15, 10, 20, 20, 20, 30, 20, 40, 45, 2700, 20, 15, 15, 25, 15, 25, 15 19,840, 10, 60, 60, 240, 600, 150, 720, 60, 45, 60, 480, 180, 60, 60, 60, 3600, 180, 420, 60, 60, 600 920, 60, 15, 150, 80, 120, 420, 120, 20, 20, 60, 15, 15, 20, 120 60 60, 60, 2880, 120, 60, 120, 540, 180 30, 30, 20, 300, 30, 60, 20, 10, 20, 20 30 20, 10, 10, 300 240, 60, 10 10, 20 120 60, 220 120, 30 60, 120 60

e 7 -e 4 e 7 -e 8 e 7 -e 11 e 7 -e 13 e 8 -e 1 e 8 -e 13 e 9 -e 1 e 10 -e 1 e 10 -e 6 e 10 -e 14 e 11 -e 1 e 11 -e 3 e 12 -e 1 e 13 -e 1 e 13 -e 3 e 13 -e 15 e 14 -e 1 e 15 -e 3 e 16 -e 1 e 16 -e 3 e 16 -e 7

141

204.20

1 3 3 5 28

5 12 4 7.40 150.18

4 19

4.25 162.63

22

1254.77

15

143.67

1 8 10 1 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 1

60 502.5 54 30 85 103.33 15 120 140 75 90 60

Appendix 3 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of environment threats at Baltic Sea waters j

ij

ij

ij

Transitions siðk=lÞ -sðk=lÞ

Transition time ηðk=lÞ (min)

Number of transitions nðk=lÞ

Mean value ηðk=lÞ (min)

A

B

C

D

1 27 sð1=2Þ -sð1=2Þ 27 1 -sð1=2Þ sð1=2Þ 1 27 -sð1=3Þ sð1=3Þ 1 30 sð1=3Þ -sð1=3Þ 27 1 sð1=3Þ -sð1=3Þ 30 1 sð1=3Þ -sð1=3Þ 1 6 sð1=8Þ -sð1=8Þ 6 1 -sð1=8Þ sð1=8Þ 1 33 -sð2=2Þ sð2=2Þ 33 1 sð2=2Þ -sð2=2Þ 1 17 sð2=3Þ -sð2=3Þ 1 33 sð2=3Þ -sð2=3Þ 17 1 sð2=3Þ -sð2=3Þ

1

1

1

300

1

300

1

1

1

1

1

1

180

1

180

240

1

240

1

1

1

240

1

240

1

1

1

1440

1

1440

1

1

1

1

1

1

10,080

1

10,080

Appendices

33 1 sð2=3Þ -sð2=3Þ

1440

1

1 24 -sð3=2Þ sð3=2Þ

1

1

1

24 1 -sð3=2Þ sð3=2Þ

1440

1

1440

1 14 -sð3=3Þ sð3=3Þ

1

1

1

1 24 -sð3=3Þ sð3=3Þ

1

1

1

14 1 -sð3=3Þ sð3=3Þ 24 1 sð3=3Þ -sð3=3Þ 1 14 sð4=3Þ -sð4=3Þ 14 1 sð4=3Þ -sð4=3Þ

10,080

1

10,080

1440

1

1440

1

1

1

10,080

1

10,080

197

1440

Appendix 4 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of environment threats at world sea waters j

ij

ij

ij

Transitions siðk=lÞ -sðk=lÞ

Transition time ηðk=lÞ (min)

Number of transitions nðk=lÞ

Mean value ηðk=lÞ (min)

A

B

C

D

1 27 sð1=2Þ -sð1=2Þ 7 1 sð1=2Þ -sð1=2Þ 27 1 -sð1=2Þ sð1=2Þ

All 1

43

1

240

1

240

42

3540

27 7 sð1=2Þ -sð1=2Þ

5760, 5760, 5760, 1440, 5760, 120, 180, 5760, 4320, 300, 420, 240, 5760, 60, 5760, 300, 180, 5760, 4320, 1440, 2880, 1440, 5760, 5760, 60, 4320, 2880, 5760, 300, 1440, 480, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 600, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760 240

1

240

1 23 -sð1=3Þ sð1=3Þ

1

1

1

1 27 -sð1=3Þ sð1=3Þ

1440, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 All 1

40

36.975

2

1

240

1

240

40

2718

30 1 -sð1=3Þ sð1=3Þ

5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 4320, 2880, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 600, 600, 480, 420, 360, 300, 300, 300, 300, 300, 240, 240, 180, 180, 120, 120 240, 240

2

240

1 13 -sð1=4Þ sð1=4Þ

1

1

1

1 27 -sð1=4Þ sð1=4Þ

All 1

16

1

1 35 -sð1=4Þ sð1=4Þ

1

1

1

5 1 -sð1=4Þ sð1=4Þ

300

1

300

13 1 -sð1=4Þ sð1=4Þ

120

1

120

27 1 -sð1=4Þ sð1=4Þ

16

2546.25

35 5 -sð1=4Þ sð1=4Þ

5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 2880, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 600, 420, 420, 180, 240 120

1

120

1 3 -sð1=5Þ sð1=5Þ

1

1

1

1 4 -sð1=5Þ sð1=5Þ 1 27 sð1=5Þ -sð1=5Þ 1 34 sð1=5Þ -sð1=5Þ 3 17 sð1=5Þ -sð1=5Þ 4 1 sð1=5Þ -sð1=5Þ 7 1 -sð1=5Þ sð1=5Þ 17 7 -sð1=5Þ sð1=5Þ 27 1 sð1=5Þ -sð1=5Þ

All 1

3

1

All 1

5

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

30, 2880, 1440, 240

4

1147.50

1 30 -sð1=3Þ sð1=3Þ 23 1 -sð1=3Þ sð1=3Þ 27 1 sð1=3Þ -sð1=3Þ

5

1

5

300

1

300

5760, 600, 600, 240, 240

5

1488

198

Appendices

34 4 sð1=5Þ -sð1=5Þ

15

1

15

1 27 -sð1=6Þ sð1=6Þ

All 1

2

1

27 1 -sð1=6Þ sð1=6Þ

5760, 5760

2

5760

1 27 -sð1=7Þ sð1=7Þ

All 1

7

1

1 30 -sð1=7Þ sð1=7Þ

1

1

1

27 1 -sð1=7Þ sð1=7Þ

5760, 4320, 1440, 1440, 1440, 600, 300 240

7

2185.8

1

240

30 1 -sð1=7Þ sð1=7Þ 1 3 -sð1=8Þ sð1=8Þ 1 6 sð1=8Þ -sð1=8Þ 1 7 sð1=8Þ -sð1=8Þ 1 8 sð1=8Þ -sð1=8Þ 1 27 -sð1=8Þ sð1=8Þ 3 1 -sð1=8Þ sð1=8Þ 6 1 sð1=8Þ -sð1=8Þ 7 21 sð1=8Þ -sð1=8Þ 8 1 sð1=8Þ -sð1=8Þ 21 1 sð1=8Þ -sð1=8Þ 27 1 -sð1=8Þ sð1=8Þ

1

1

1

All 1

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

All 1

11

1

40

1

40

180, 240, 2880

3

1100

15

1

15

240

1

240

5

1

5

11

2648.4

1 33 -sð2=2Þ sð2=2Þ

10,080, 5760, 5760, 5760, 720, 300, 240, 240, 120, 120, 30 All 1

43

1

2 1 -sð2=2Þ sð2=2Þ

280,800

1

280,800

33 1 -sð2=2Þ sð2=2Þ

42

14,575.71

33 2 sð2=2Þ -sð2=2Þ

10,080, 10,080, 18,720, 20,160, 14,400, 1440, 1440, 20,160, 4320, 4320, 4320, 1440, 14,400, 1440, 14,400, 2880, 1440, 14,400, 11,520, 4320, 14,400, 7200, 20,160, 5760, 180, 8640, 5760, 14,400, 1440, 2880, 1440, 14,400, 20,160, 5760, 5760, 20,160, 2880, 7200, 216,000, 21,600, 5760, 34,560 2880

1

2880

1 17 -sð2=3Þ sð2=3Þ

All 1

3

1

1 18 -sð2=3Þ sð2=3Þ

1

1

1

1 33 -sð2=3Þ sð2=3Þ

41

36.10

17 1 -sð2=3Þ sð2=3Þ

1440, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 7200, 7200, 10,080

3

24,480

18 1 -sð2=3Þ sð2=3Þ

43,200

1

43,200

33 1 -sð2=3Þ sð2=3Þ

43,200, 43,200, 43,200, 43,200, 28,800, 28,800, 23,040, 21,600, 20,160, 20,160, 20,160, 14,400, 14,400, 14,400, 14,400, 10,080, 5760, 4320, 4320, 2880, 2880, 2880, 2880, 2880, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440 All 1

41

11,133.6

16

1

16

31,050

1 33 sð2=4Þ -sð2=4Þ 33 1 -sð2=4Þ sð2=4Þ

1 33 -sð2=5Þ sð2=5Þ

345,600, 43,200, 28,800, 20,160, 11,520, 7200, 5760, 4320, 4320, 4320, 2880, 2880, 2880, 1440, 1440, 10,080 All 1

5

1

33 1 -sð2=5Þ sð2=5Þ

172,800, 4320, 1440, 1440, 10,080

5

38,016

1 33 -sð2=6Þ sð2=6Þ

All 1

2

1

33 1 -sð2=6Þ sð2=6Þ

14,400, 10,080

2

12,240

1 17 -sð2=7Þ sð2=7Þ

1

1

1

Appendices

1 33 sð2=7Þ -sð2=7Þ

All 1

7

1

17 1 -sð2=7Þ sð2=7Þ

1440

1

1440

33 1 -sð2=7Þ sð2=7Þ

7

8640

1 2 -sð2=8Þ sð2=8Þ

28,800, 14,400, 10,080, 2880, 1440, 1440, 1440 1

1

1

1 4 -sð2=8Þ sð2=8Þ

1

1

1

1 5 -sð2=8Þ sð2=8Þ

1

1

1

1 33 -sð2=8Þ sð2=8Þ 2 1 sð2=8Þ -sð2=8Þ 4 1 sð2=8Þ -sð2=8Þ 5 1 sð2=8Þ -sð2=8Þ 33 1 sð2=8Þ -sð2=8Þ

All 1

11

1

7200

1

7200

1440

1

1440

1440

1

1440

11

12,133.63

1 24 -sð3=2Þ sð3=2Þ

46,800, 43,200, 17,280, 14,400, 2880, 2880, 2880, 1440, 1440, 240, 30 All 1

43

1

2 1 -sð3=2Þ sð3=2Þ

280,800

1

280,800

24 1 -sð3=2Þ sð3=2Þ

42

14,575.71

24 2 sð3=2Þ -sð3=2Þ

10,080, 10,080, 18,720, 20,160, 14,400, 1440, 1440, 20,160, 4320, 4320, 4320, 1440, 14,400, 1440, 14,400, 2880, 1440, 14,400, 11,520, 4320, 14,400, 7200, 20,160, 5760, 180, 8640, 5760, 14,400, 1440, 2880, 1440, 14,400, 20,160, 5760, 5760, 20,160, 2880, 7200, 216,000, 21,600, 5760, 34,560 2880

1

2880

1 14 -sð3=3Þ sð3=3Þ

All 1

3

1

1 15 -sð3=3Þ sð3=3Þ

1

1

1

1 24 -sð3=3Þ sð3=3Þ

41

36.10

14 1 -sð3=3Þ sð3=3Þ

1440, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 7200, 7200, 10,080

3

24,480

15 1 -sð3=3Þ sð3=3Þ

43,200

1

43,200

24 1 -sð3=3Þ sð3=3Þ

72,000, 43,200, 43,200, 43,200, 43,200, 28,800, 28,800, 23,040, 21,600, 20,160, 20,160, 14,400, 14,400, 14,400, 14,400, 10,080, 5760, 4320, 4320, 2880, 2880, 2880, 2880, 2880, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440 All 1

41

12,398.05

16

1

1 24 sð3=4Þ -sð3=4Þ 24 1 -sð3=4Þ sð3=4Þ

1 24 -sð3=5Þ sð3=5Þ 24 1 -sð3=5Þ sð3=5Þ 1 24 sð3=6Þ -sð3=6Þ 24 1 sð3=6Þ -sð3=6Þ 1 14 -sð3=7Þ sð3=7Þ 1 24 -sð3=7Þ sð3=7Þ 14 1 sð3=7Þ -sð3=7Þ 24 1 sð3=7Þ -sð3=7Þ 1 2 -sð3=8Þ sð3=8Þ 1 3 -sð3=8Þ sð3=8Þ 1 4 sð3=8Þ -sð3=8Þ 1 24 sð3=8Þ -sð3=8Þ 2 1 -sð3=8Þ sð3=8Þ

345,600, 43,200, 28,800, 20,160, 11,520, 7200, 5760, 4320, 4320, 4320, 2880, 2880, 2880, 1440, 1440, 10,080 All 1

16

31,050

5

1

172,800, 4320, 1440, 1440, 10,080

5

38,016

All 1

2

1

14,400, 10,080

2

12,240

1

1

1

All 1

7

1

1440

1

1440

28,800, 14,400, 10,080, 2880, 1440, 1440, 1440 1

7

8640

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

All 1

11

1

7200

1

7200

199

200

Appendices

3 1 sð3=8Þ -sð3=8Þ

1440

1

1440

4 1 -sð3=8Þ sð3=8Þ

1440

1

1440

24 1 -sð3=8Þ sð3=8Þ

28,800, 43,200, 17,280, 14,400, 2880, 2880, 2880, 1440, 1440, 240, 30 1

11

10,497.27

1

1

1440, 5040, 1440, 2160, 1440, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 280,800

21

549.33

1

280,800

1 2 -sð4=2Þ sð4=2Þ 1 24 -sð4=2Þ sð4=2Þ 2 1 -sð4=2Þ sð4=2Þ 24 1 -sð4=2Þ sð4=2Þ

21

35,382.86

1 14 -sð4=3Þ sð4=3Þ

28,800, 10,080, 17,280, 81,360, 14,400, 43,200, 4320, 15,840, 22,320, 1440, 43,200, 43,200, 86,400, 20,160, 5760, 5760, 20,160, 7200, 216,000, 21,600, 34,560 All 1

3

1

1 15 -sð4=3Þ sð4=3Þ

1

1

1

1 24 -sð4=3Þ sð4=3Þ

18

440.78

14 1 -sð4=3Þ sð4=3Þ

1440, 2880, 2880, 720, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 7200, 7200, 10,080

3

24,480

15 1 -sð4=3Þ sð4=3Þ

43,200

1

43,200

24 1 -sð4=3Þ sð4=3Þ

128,160, 23,040, 40,320, 42,480, 4320, 4320, 10,080, 2880, 72,000, 21,600, 14,400, 14,400, 20,160, 43,200, 14,400, 28,800, 43,200, 43,200 All 1

18

32,230.59

7

1

7

70,765.71

1 24 -sð4=4Þ sð4=4Þ 24 1 -sð4=4Þ sð4=4Þ 1 24 -sð4=5Þ sð4=5Þ 24 1 -sð4=5Þ sð4=5Þ 1 24 sð4=6Þ -sð4=6Þ 24 1 sð4=6Þ -sð4=6Þ 1 14 sð4=7Þ -sð4=7Þ 1 24 -sð4=7Þ sð4=7Þ 14 1 -sð4=7Þ sð4=7Þ 24 1 sð4=7Þ -sð4=7Þ 1 2 sð4=8Þ -sð4=8Þ 1 4 sð4=8Þ -sð4=8Þ 1 24 sð4=8Þ -sð4=8Þ 2 1 sð4=8Þ -sð4=8Þ 4 1 -sð4=8Þ sð4=8Þ 24 1 -sð4=8Þ sð4=8Þ 1 24 sð5=2Þ -sð5=2Þ 24 1 -sð5=2Þ sð5=2Þ

1 15 -sð5=3Þ sð5=3Þ 1 24 -sð5=3Þ sð5=3Þ 15 1 -sð5=3Þ sð5=3Þ 24 1 -sð5=3Þ sð5=3Þ

1 24 -sð5=4Þ sð5=4Þ

345,600, 43,200, 43,200, 28,800, 20,160, 4320, 10,080 All 1

2

1

172,800, 10,080

2

91,440

1440, 1

2

720.5

12,960, 28,800

2

20,880

1

1

1

360, 1, 1, 1

4

90.75

1440

1

1440

28,800, 28,440, 14,400, 2880

4

18,630

1

1

1

1

1

1

All 1

3

1

7200

1

7200

1440

1

1440

43,200, 17,280, 43,200

3

34,560

2160, 2880, 1440, 180, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 28,800, 10,080, 18,720, 14,400, 4320, 4320, 4320, 1440, 1440, 41,040, 43,200, 20,160, 5760, 5760, 20,160, 7200, 215,280, 21,600, 34,380 1

19

351.32

19

26,441.05

1

1

1440, 2880, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 43,200

15

288.87

1

43,200

15

22,368

23,040, 5760, 4320, 4320, 1440, 8640, 72,000, 21,600, 14,400, 14,400, 21,600, 43,200, 14,400, 43,200, 43,200 All 1

8

1

8

64,260

1 24 -sð5=5Þ sð5=5Þ

43,200, 20,160, 4320, 4320, 10,080, 43,200, 43,200, 345,600 1

1

1

24 1 -sð5=5Þ sð5=5Þ

172,800

1

172,800

24 1 -sð5=4Þ sð5=4Þ

Appendices

1 24 sð5=6Þ -sð5=6Þ

1440

1

1440

24 1 -sð5=6Þ sð5=6Þ

17,280

1

17,280

1 24 -sð5=7Þ sð5=7Þ

All 1

2

1

24 1 -sð5=7Þ sð5=7Þ

20,160, 2880

2

11,520

1 24 -sð5=8Þ sð5=8Þ

All 1

4

1

24 1 -sð5=8Þ sð5=8Þ

262,080, 43,200, 43,200, 1440

4

87,480

201

Appendix 5 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of environment degradation at Baltic Sea waters j

ij

ij

ij

i Transitions rðk=υÞ -rðk=υÞ

Transition time ζ ðk=υÞ (min)

Number of transitions nðk=υÞ

Mean value ζ ðk=υÞ (min)

A

B

C

D

1 2 rð1=6Þ -rð1=6Þ

1

1

1

2 1 -rð1=6Þ rð1=6Þ 1 6 rð1=27Þ -rð1=27Þ 6 1 rð1=27Þ -rð1=27Þ 1 11 rð1=30Þ -rð1=30Þ 11 1 -rð1=30Þ rð1=30Þ 1 27 -rð2=17Þ rð2=17Þ 12 1 rð2=17Þ -rð2=17Þ 16 12 rð2=17Þ -rð2=17Þ 21 16 rð2=17Þ -rð2=17Þ 25 21 rð2=17Þ -rð2=17Þ 27 25 -rð2=17Þ rð2=17Þ 1 6 -rð2=33Þ rð2=33Þ 6 1 rð2=33Þ -rð2=33Þ 1 27 rð3=14Þ -rð3=14Þ 12 1 rð3=14Þ -rð3=14Þ 16 12 rð3=14Þ -rð3=14Þ 21 16 rð3=14Þ -rð3=14Þ 25 21 -rð3=14Þ rð3=14Þ 27 25 rð3=14Þ -rð3=14Þ 1 6 rð3=24Þ -rð3=24Þ 6 1 rð3=24Þ -rð3=24Þ 1 30 rð4=14Þ -rð4=14Þ 12 1 rð4=14Þ -rð4=14Þ 16 12 -rð4=14Þ rð4=14Þ 21 16 -rð4=14Þ rð4=14Þ 28 21 rð4=14Þ -rð4=14Þ 30 28 rð4=14Þ -rð4=14Þ

240

1

240

1, 1

2

1

180, 300

2

240

1

1

1

240

1

240

1

1

1

2880

1

2880

3780

1

3780

2880

1

2880

300

1

300

240

1

240

1, 1

2

1

1440, 1440

2

1440

1

1

1

2880

1

2880

3780

1

3780

2880

1

2880

300

1

300

240

1

240

All 1

2

1

1440, 1440

2

1440

1

1

1

2880

1

2880

3780

1

3780

2880

1

2880

300

1

300

240

1

240

Appendix 6 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of environment degradation at world sea waters j

ij

ij

ij

i Transitions rðk=υÞ -rðk=υÞ

Transition time ζ ðk=υÞ (min)

Number of transitions nðk=υÞ

Mean value ζ ðk=υÞ (min)

A

B

C

D

1 28 rð1=3Þ -rð1=3Þ

1

1

1

6 1 -rð1=3Þ rð1=3Þ

180

1

180

22 6 -rð1=3Þ rð1=3Þ

120

1

120

25 22 -rð1=3Þ rð1=3Þ 28 25 rð1=3Þ -rð1=3Þ

120

1

120

300

1

300

202

Appendices

1 27 rð1=4Þ -rð1=4Þ

All 1

3

1

1 30 -rð1=4Þ rð1=4Þ

1

1

1

20 1 -rð1=4Þ rð1=4Þ

20

1

20

21 1 -rð1=4Þ rð1=4Þ

720, 720, 600

3

680

24 21 -rð1=4Þ rð1=4Þ

720, 1440, 600

3

920

27 24 -rð1=4Þ rð1=4Þ 29 20 rð1=4Þ -rð1=4Þ 30 29 rð1=4Þ -rð1=4Þ 1 26 rð1=5Þ -rð1=5Þ 20 1 rð1=5Þ -rð1=5Þ 23 20 -rð1=5Þ rð1=5Þ 26 23 -rð1=5Þ rð1=5Þ 1 2 rð1=6Þ -rð1=6Þ 1 19 rð1=6Þ -rð1=6Þ 2 1 rð1=6Þ -rð1=6Þ 17 1 rð1=6Þ -rð1=6Þ 18 17 rð1=6Þ -rð1=6Þ 19 18 -rð1=6Þ rð1=6Þ 1 2 rð1=7Þ -rð1=7Þ 1 10 rð1=7Þ -rð1=7Þ 2 1 rð1=7Þ -rð1=7Þ 6 1 rð1=7Þ -rð1=7Þ 8 6 rð1=7Þ -rð1=7Þ 10 8 -rð1=7Þ rð1=7Þ 1 15 -rð1=8Þ rð1=8Þ 13 1 rð1=8Þ -rð1=8Þ 14 13 rð1=8Þ -rð1=8Þ 15 14 rð1=8Þ -rð1=8Þ 1 6 rð1=13Þ -rð1=13Þ 6 1 -rð1=13Þ rð1=13Þ 1 28 -rð1=17Þ rð1=17Þ 6 1 rð1=17Þ -rð1=17Þ 22 6 rð1=17Þ -rð1=17Þ 25 22 rð1=17Þ -rð1=17Þ 28 25 rð1=17Þ -rð1=17Þ 1 20 -rð1=21Þ rð1=21Þ 20 1 -rð1=21Þ rð1=21Þ 1 2 rð1=23Þ -rð1=23Þ 2 1 rð1=23Þ -rð1=23Þ 1 6 rð1=27Þ -rð1=27Þ 6 1 rð1=27Þ -rð1=27Þ

3600, 2160, 300

3

2020

20

1

20

40

1

40

1

1

1

30

1

30

60

1

60

360

1

360

All 1

2

1

1

1

1

240, 2880

2

1560

30

1

30

30

1

30

180

1

180

1

1

1

1

1

1

15

1

15

180

1

180

120

1

120

420

1

420

1

1

1

60

1

60

60

1

60

120

1

120

1

1

1

120

1

120

1

1

1

180

1

180

120

1

120

120

1

120

300

1

300

1

1

1

10

1

10

1

1

1

240

1

240

All 1

124

1

5760, 5760, 5760, 120, 5760, 240, 720, 5760, 5760, 240, 5760, 1440, 5760, 5760, 1440, 5760, 180, 5760, 300, 5760, 120, 30, 120, 180, 5760, 5760, 5760, 1440, 4320, 300, 240, 4320, 1440, 420, 240, 5760, 60, 240, 300, 5760, 2880, 5760, 480, 300, 1440, 300, 180, 5760, 5760, 5760, 120, 180, 240, 300, 1440, 1440, 180, 120, 2880, 1440, 2880, 4320, 1440, 5760, 600, 5760, 60, 4320,

124

2982.34

Appendices

1 11 rð1=30Þ -rð1=30Þ

600, 2880, 300, 1440, 300, 1440, 5760, 1440, 1440, 600, 420, 1440, 1440, 300, 1440, 1440, 5760, 420, 1440, 10,080, 5760, 240, 1440, 480, 420, 5760, 5760, 600, 240, 240, 300, 360, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 600, 4320, 600, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 8640, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760, 5760 All 1

3

1

11 1 -rð1=30Þ rð1=30Þ

240, 300, 240

3

260

1 26 -rð1=35Þ rð1=35Þ

1

1

1

20 1 -rð1=35Þ rð1=35Þ 23 20 rð1=35Þ -rð1=35Þ 26 23 rð1=35Þ -rð1=35Þ 1 5 rð2=1Þ -rð2=1Þ 5 1 -rð2=1Þ rð2=1Þ 1 2 rð2=2Þ -rð2=2Þ 2 1 rð2=2Þ -rð2=2Þ 1 2 rð2=4Þ -rð2=4Þ 2 1 rð2=4Þ -rð2=4Þ 1 18 rð2=5Þ -rð2=5Þ 13 1 -rð2=5Þ rð2=5Þ 14 13 -rð2=5Þ rð2=5Þ 18 14 rð2=5Þ -rð2=5Þ 1 25 rð2=17Þ -rð2=17Þ 1 27 rð2=17Þ -rð2=17Þ 12 1 rð2=17Þ -rð2=17Þ 16 12 -rð2=17Þ rð2=17Þ 21 16 -rð2=17Þ rð2=17Þ 25 21 rð2=17Þ -rð2=17Þ 27 25 rð2=17Þ -rð2=17Þ 1 11 rð2=18Þ -rð2=18Þ 6 1 rð2=18Þ -rð2=18Þ 9 6 rð2=18Þ -rð2=18Þ 11 9 -rð2=18Þ rð2=18Þ 1 6 rð2=33Þ -rð2=33Þ 1 9 rð2=33Þ -rð2=33Þ 1 11 rð2=33Þ -rð2=33Þ 1 23 rð2=33Þ -rð2=33Þ 2 1 rð2=33Þ -rð2=33Þ 6 1 -rð2=33Þ rð2=33Þ

30

1

30

60

1

60

360

1

360

1

1

1

600

1

600

1

1

1

2880

1

2880

1

1

1

1440

1

1440

1

1

1

780

1

780

360

1

360

300

1

300

All 1

2

1

All 1

2

1

3780, 2280, 240, 4260

4

2640

3780, 2880, 480, 1440

4

2145

2880, 1440, 360, 1440

4

1530

300, 300, 360, 60

4

255

240, 300

2

270

1

1

1

10,080

1

10,080

11,520

1

11,520

21,600

1

21,600

All 1

60

1

All 1

32

1

All 1

32

1

1

1

1

246,240

1

246,240

7200, 720, 7200, 1380, 7920, 1440, 2880, 25,920, 7200, 8640, 14,400, 13,500, 12,960, 2880, 24,480, 1440, 23,040, 1440, 14,400, 1440, 30, 5760, 1440, 4320, 7200, 5760, 2880, 3600, 4320, 5760, 9360, 4320, 4320, 1440, 11,520, 1440, 1440, 1440, 5760, 2880, 8640,

124

11,319.44

203

204

Appendices

9 6 rð2=33Þ -rð2=33Þ

11 9 rð2=33Þ -rð2=33Þ

12 2 rð2=33Þ -rð2=33Þ 15 12 -rð2=33Þ rð2=33Þ 20 15 rð2=33Þ -rð2=33Þ 22 20 rð2=33Þ -rð2=33Þ 23 22 rð2=33Þ -rð2=33Þ 1 2 -rð3=2Þ rð3=2Þ 2 1 -rð3=2Þ rð3=2Þ 1 2 rð3=3Þ -rð3=3Þ 2 1 rð3=3Þ -rð3=3Þ 1 18 rð3=4Þ -rð3=4Þ 13 1 rð3=4Þ -rð3=4Þ 14 13 rð3=4Þ -rð3=4Þ 18 14 -rð3=4Þ rð3=4Þ 1 25 rð3=14Þ -rð3=14Þ 1 27 rð3=14Þ -rð3=14Þ 12 1 rð3=14Þ -rð3=14Þ

1440, 240, 1440, 2880, 1440, 12,240, 15,840, 11,520, 2880, 1440, 2880, 1440, 2880, 2880, 720, 1440, 10,080, 2880, 10,080, 7200, 5760, 10,080, 4320, 5160, 180, 5760, 2880, 2880, 1440, 2880, 1440, 1440, 2880, 5760, 1440, 4320, 1440, 2880, 2880, 4320, 1440, 2880, 1440, 10,080, 1440, 4320, 14,400, 5760, 5760, 4320, 1440, 1440, 7200, 2880, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 5760, 8640, 10,080, 720, 720, 2880, 10,080, 2880, 4320, 20,160, 28,800, 28,800, 2880, 7200, 184,320, 299,520, 17,280, 14,400, 28,800, 720, 23,040, 33,120, 18,720, 139,680 4320, 2160, 1440, 60, 1440, 10,080, 5760, 7200, 2880, 900, 1440, 4320, 2160, 5760, 7200, 7200, 9360, 720, 4320, 720, 2880, 2130, 5760, 2160, 5760, 1440, 1440, 1440, 4320, 2880, 1440, 7200, 600, 2880, 2880, 14,400, 4320, 11,520, 8640, 4320, 7200, 4320, 8640, 5760, 5760, 720, 720, 7200, 1440, 5760, 7200, 10,080, 5760, 10,080, 14,400, 20,160, 8640, 5760, 10,080, 3600, 4320, 6768, 14,400, 28,800 2880, 2880, 1440, 360, 7200, 5760, 7200, 2880, 5040, 8640, 5040, 2160, 7200, 2880, 5760, 2880, 4320, 4320, 2880, 1440, 2880, 7200, 5760, 17,280, 10,080, 2880, 2880, 4320, 7200, 3600, 10,080, 4320 14,400 7200

64

5709.66

32

5051.25

1

14,400

1

7200

10,080

1

10,080

1440

1

1440

1440

1

1440

1

1

1

2880

1

2880

1

1

1

1440

1

1440

1

1

1

780

1

780

360

1

360

300

1

300

All 1

2

1

All 1

2

1

3780, 2280, 240, 4260

4

2640

Appendices

16 12 rð3=14Þ -rð3=14Þ

3780, 2880, 480, 1440

4

2145

21 16 -rð3=14Þ rð3=14Þ

2880, 1440, 360, 1440

4

1530

25 21 -rð3=14Þ rð3=14Þ

300, 300, 360, 60

4

255

27 25 -rð3=14Þ rð3=14Þ

240, 300

2

270

1 11 -rð3=15Þ rð3=15Þ

1

1

1

6 1 -rð3=15Þ rð3=15Þ 9 6 rð3=15Þ -rð3=15Þ 11 9 rð3=15Þ -rð3=15Þ 1 6 rð3=24Þ -rð3=24Þ 1 9 rð3=24Þ -rð3=24Þ 1 11 -rð3=24Þ rð3=24Þ 1 23 rð3=24Þ -rð3=24Þ 2 1 rð3=24Þ -rð3=24Þ 6 1 rð3=24Þ -rð3=24Þ

10,080

1

10,080

11,520

1

11,520

21,600

1

21,600

All 1

81

1

All 1

37

1

All 1

6

1

1

1

1

246,240

1

246,240

10,080, 2880, 8640, 1440, 10,080, 1440, 2880, 33,840, 11,520, 8640, 14,400, 14,400, 14,400, 2880, 28,800, 1440, 20,160, 1440, 14,400, 1440, 30, 5760, 1440, 10,080, 7200, 5760, 2880, 4320, 4320, 5760, 10,080, 4320, 4320, 1440, 11,520, 1440, 1440, 1440, 2160, 2880, 8640, 1440, 240, 1440, 2880, 1440, 14,400, 12,960, 11,520, 2880, 1440, 2880, 1440, 2880, 4320, 720, 1440, 11,520, 2880, 10,080, 7200, 5760, 10,080, 4320, 5760, 180, 8640, 2880, 5760, 1440, 2880, 1440, 2880, 2880, 57,600, 1440, 14,400, 1440, 2880, 2880, 4320, 1440, 2880, 1440, 14,400, 1440, 4320, 14,400, 8640, 5760, 4320, 1440, 1440, 8640, 7200, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 1440, 5760, 11,520, 10,080, 1440, 1440, 2880, 10,080, 2880, 5760, 17,280, 28,800, 28,800, 2880, 7200, 175,680, 319,600, 11,520, 8640, 10,080, 5760, 17,280, 18,720, 14,400, 97,920 2160, 2880, 1440, 4320, 1440 4320, 2880, 1440, 7200, 5760, 7200, 5760, 8640, 5760, 7200, 7200, 9360, 4320, 2880, 4320, 5760, 14,400, 1440, 4320, 2880, 1440, 7200, 14,400, 7200, 5760, 4320, 5760, 8640, 8640, 10,080, 4320, 4320, 10,080, 1440, 5760, 7200, 10,080, 5760, 10,080, 20,160, 21,600, 11,520, 8640, 14,400, 7200, 17,280, 14,400, 43,200

124

11,610.08

5

2448

48

8415

6 9 rð3=24Þ -rð3=24Þ 9 6 -rð3=24Þ rð3=24Þ

205

206

Appendices

9 11 rð3=24Þ -rð3=24Þ

12 2 -rð3=24Þ rð3=24Þ

10,080, 1440, 720, 4320, 1440, 3600, 7200, 1440 7200, 5040, 2880, 5760, 7200, 5760, 10,080, 4320, 3600, 14,400, 8640, 3600, 7200, 28,800 14,400

8

3780

14

8177.14

15 12 -rð3=24Þ rð3=24Þ

7200

1

14,400

1

20 15 -rð3=24Þ rð3=24Þ

7200

10,080

1

10,080

22 20 -rð3=24Þ rð3=24Þ

1440

1

1440

23 22 -rð3=24Þ rð3=24Þ

1440

1

1440

1 2 -rð4=2Þ rð4=2Þ 2 1 rð4=2Þ -rð4=2Þ 1 18 rð4=4Þ -rð4=4Þ 13 1 rð4=4Þ -rð4=4Þ 14 13 rð4=4Þ -rð4=4Þ 18 14 -rð4=4Þ rð4=4Þ 1 28 -rð4=14Þ rð4=14Þ 1 30 rð4=14Þ -rð4=14Þ 12 1 rð4=14Þ -rð4=14Þ 16 12 rð4=14Þ -rð4=14Þ 21 16 rð4=14Þ -rð4=14Þ 28 21 -rð4=14Þ rð4=14Þ 30 28 -rð4=14Þ rð4=14Þ 1 11 rð4=15Þ -rð4=15Þ 6 1 rð4=15Þ -rð4=15Þ 9 6 rð4=15Þ -rð4=15Þ 11 9 rð4=15Þ -rð4=15Þ 1 6 rð4=24Þ -rð4=24Þ

1

1

1

2880

1

2880

11 9 -rð3=24Þ rð3=24Þ

1

1

1

780

1

780

360

1

360

300

1

300

1, 1

2

1

1, 1

2

1

3780, 2280, 4260, 240

4

2640

3780, 2880, 1440, 480

4

2145

2880, 1440, 1440, 360

4

1530

300, 300, 60, 360

4

300

240, 300

2

270

1

1

1

10,080

1

10,080

11,520

1

11,520

21,600

1

21,600

52

381.56

1 9 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ

1440, 1440, 5040, 2880, 360, 720, 1440, 1440, 2160, 1440, 1440, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 All 1

4

1

1 11 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ

1

1

1

6 1 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ

28,800, 43,200, 28,800, 4320, 86,400, 17,280, 8640, 51,840, 7200, 2880, 40,320, 16,200, 8220, 10,080, 10,080, 8640, 4320, 4320, 4320, 5760, 4320, 8640, 15,840, 10,800, 14,400, 1440, 4320, 18,720, 2880, 18,720, 720, 34,560, 5760, 2880, 10,080, 4320, 51,840, 2880, 10,080, 1440, 1440, 12,960, 2880, 10,080, 14,400, 24,480, 2880, 7200, 74,880, 249,120, 7200, 1440, 4320, 10,080, 2880, 10,080, 50,400 2880, 2160, 720, 420, 720, 7200, 1440, 1440, 720, 1440, 1440, 2880, 1440, 720, 720, 4320, 4320, 4320, 1440, 1440, 720, 720, 2880, 720, 720, 1440, 720, 1440, 2880,

57

19,350.53

37

1749.73

6 9 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ

Appendices

6 24 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ 9 6 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ

9 11 rð4=24Þ -rð4=24Þ

9 25 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ 11 9 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ 11 26 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ

24 6 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ 25 6 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ 25 24 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ 26 9 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ

2880, 1440, 720, 1440, 720, 240, 1440, 1440 4320 5760, 7200, 7200, 11,520, 3600, 11,520, 11,520, 10,080, 8640, 7920, 4320, 10,080, 21,600, 5760, 2880, 7200, 5760, 8640, 3600, 3600, 4320, 4320, 8640, 17,280, 4320, 8640, 43,200, 28,800, 15,840, 5760, 7200, 8640, 2880, 10,080, 43,200 1440, 1440, 2880, 1440, 720, 720, 720, 4320, 2880, 1440, 3600, 2880, 2160, 1200, 2880, 1440 4320, 7200, 8640, 6480, 8640, 7200 7200, 6468, 5760, 2880, 8640 4320, 5760, 5760, 4320, 8640, 2880, 4320, 5760, 5760, 4320, 5760, 4320 4320, 7200 20,160, 28,800, 8640, 21,600, 8640, 2880 30,240

1

4320

35

10,614.86

16

2010

6

7080

5

6189.6

12

5160

2

5760

6

15,120

1

30,240

11

30,763.64

26 25 -rð4=24Þ rð4=24Þ

14,400, 14,400, 10,080, 10,080, 86,400, 57,600, 21,600, 7200, 31,680, 12,960, 72,000 10,080

1

10,080

1 5 -rð5=1Þ rð5=1Þ

1

1

1

5 1 -rð5=1Þ rð5=1Þ

600

1

600

1 11 -rð5=15Þ rð5=15Þ

1

1

1

6 1 -rð5=15Þ rð5=15Þ 9 6 rð5=15Þ -rð5=15Þ 11 9 rð5=15Þ -rð5=15Þ 1 6 rð5=24Þ -rð5=24Þ

10,080

1

10,080

11,520

1

11,520

21,600

1

21,600

2880, 1440, 1440, 2160, 1440, 720, 180, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1

38

270.82

9

1

All 1

4

1

7200, 10,080, 7200, 1440, 11,520, 15,840, 11,520, 2880, 10,080, 5760, 4320, 4320, 4320, 11,520, 4320, 4320, 1440, 11,520, 1440, 1440, 14,400, 2880, 4320, 20,160, 2880, 18,720, 7200, 7200, 4320, 2880, 10,080, 5760, 2880, 12,960, 1440, 1440, 11,520, 2880, 10,080, 8640, 20,160, 2880, 231,840, 72,000, 226,080, 7200, 8640, 12,960, 12,960, 8640, 41,760 1440, 720, 720, 720, 1440, 2880, 4320, 2160, 1440, 1440, 720, 1440, 720, 1440,

51

18,240

22

1418.18

1 9 -rð5=24Þ rð5=24Þ 1 11 -rð5=24Þ rð5=24Þ 6 1 rð5=24Þ -rð5=24Þ

6 9 rð5=24Þ -rð5=24Þ

207

208

Appendices

720, 1440, 720, 2880, 1440, 240, 1440, 720 2880, 10,080, 2880, 7200, 2880, 2880, 4320, 8640, 3600, 15,840, 20,160, 4320, 64,800, 11,520, 7200, 6480, 15,840, 5760, 4320, 4320, 7200, 4320, 10,080, 7200, 21,600, 4320, 28,800, 43,200, 43,200, 7200, 10,080, 11,520, 14,400, 8640, 50,400 720, 720, 720, 1440, 2880, 720, 2880, 1440, 1200, 2880, 720 30,240, 10,080, 5760, 11,520, 10,080, 18,720, 5760, 97,920, 72,000, 5760, 21,600, 7200, 14,400, 23,040, 79,200

9 6 -rð5=24Þ rð5=24Þ

9 11 rð5=24Þ -rð5=24Þ

11 9 -rð5=24Þ rð5=24Þ

35

13,659.43

11

1483.64

15

27,552

Appendix 7 Table of chi-square distribution

α n

0.01

0.02

0.05

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.70

0.80

0.90

0.95

0.98

0.99

0.06 0.45 1.00 1.65 2.34 3.07 3.82 4.59 5.38 6.18 6.99 7.81 8.63 9.47 10.31 11.15 12.00 12.86 13.72 14.59

0.02 0.21 0.58 1.06 1.61 2.20 2.83 3.49 4.17 4.86 5.58 6.30 7.04 7.79 8.55 9.31 10.08 10.86 11.65 12.44

0.00 0.10 0.35 0.71 1.14 1.63 2.17 2.73 3.32 3.94 4.57 5.23 5.89 6.57 7.26 7.96 8.67 9.39 10.12 10.85

0.00 0.04 0.18 0.43 0.75 1.13 1.56 2.03 2.53 3.06 3.61 4.18 4.76 5.37 5.98 6.61 7.25 7.91 8.57 9.24

0.00 0.02 0.11 0.30 0.55 0.87 1.24 1.65 2.09 2.56 3.08 3.57 4.11 4.66 5.23 5.81 6.41 7.01 7.63 8.26

α

The values of u 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

6.63 9.21 11.34 13.28 15.09 16.81 18.47 20.09 21.67 23.21 24.72 26.22 27.69 29.14 30.58 32.00 33.41 34.80 36.19 37.57

5.41 7.82 9.35 11.67 13.39 15.03 16.62 18.17 19.68 21.16 22.62 24.05 25.47 26.87 28.26 29.63 30.99 32.35 33.69 35.02

3.84 5.99 7.81 9.49 11.07 12.59 14.07 15.51 16.92 18.31 19.67 21.03 22.36 23.68 25.00 26.30 27.59 28.87 30.15 31.41

2.71 4.60 6.25 7.78 9.24 10.68 12.02 13.36 14.68 15.99 17.27 18.55 19.81 21.06 22.31 23.54 24.77 25.99 27.20 28.41

1.64 3.22 4.64 5.99 7.29 8.56 9.80 11.03 12.24 13.44 14.63 15.81 16.98 18.15 19.31 20.46 21.61 22.76 23.90 25.04

1.07 2.41 3.66 4.88 6.06 7.23 8.38 9.52 10.66 11.78 12.90 14.01 15.12 16.22 17.32 18.42 19.51 20.60 21.69 22.77

0.15 0.71 1.42 2.19 3.00 3.83 4.67 5.53 6.39 7.27 8.15 9.03 9.93 10.82 11.72 12.62 13.53 14.44 15.35 16.27

Appendices

209

Appendix 8 Procedures of modeling, identification, prediction, optimization, and mitigation of critical infrastructure accident consequences Modeling 1. Modeling the process of initiating events a. to fix initiating events Ei ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; n1 ; b. to fix or define general parameters of the process of initiating events i. the number of states of the process of initiating events ω, ii. the states of the process of initiating events e1 ; e2 ; . . .; eω . 2. Modeling the process of environment threats a. to fix subareas Dk ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 that may be degraded by the environment threats (if necessary); b. to fix environment threats Hi ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; n2 ; c. to fix the parameters f i ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; n2 and their range li ;i 5 1; 2; . . .; n2 to characterize the particular environment threats Hi ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; n2 ; d. to fix or define general parameters of the process of environment threats i. the number of the environment threats states υk of the subarea Dk ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 , ii. the states of the process of environment threats s1ðkÞ ; s2ðkÞ ; . . .; sυðkÞk of the subarea Dk ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 . 3. Modeling the process of environment degradation a. to fix dangerous degradation effects Rm ðkÞ ; m 5 1; 2; . . .; mk ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; b. to fix the range of degradation effect vm ðkÞ ; m 5 1; 2; . . .; mk ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; c. to fix or define general parameters of the process of environment degradation i. the number of the environment degradation states ‘k of the subarea Dk ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 , ‘k 1 2 ii. the states of the process of environment degradation rðkÞ ; rðkÞ ; . . .; rðkÞ of the subarea Dk ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 .

Identification 1. Identification of the process of initiating events a. to fix the duration time of the experiment Θ; b. to collect the set of realizations of the conditional sojourn times θlj ; l; j 5 1; 2; . . .; ω; l 6¼ j of the process of initiating events at the state el when the next transition is to the state ej ; c. to fix and collect statistical data necessary to evaluate the initial transient probabilities pl ð0Þ of the process of initiating events at the particular states at the initial moment t 5 0 i. the vector of realizations nl ð0Þ of the numbers of the process of initiating events staying at the states el ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω at the initial moment t 5 0; according to (4.1), ii. the number of the process of initiating events realizations nð0Þ at the moment t 5 0 according to (4.2); d. to fix and collect statistical data necessary to evaluate the probabilities plj ; l; j 5 1; 2; . . .; ω; l 6¼ j of the process of initiating events transitions between its states i. the matrix of realizations nlj ; l; j 5 1; 2; . . .; ω; l 6¼ j of the numbers of the process of initiating events transitions from the state el into the state ej ; according to (4.3), ii. the vector of realizations of the total numbers nl ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω of the process of initiating events transitions from the state el ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω; according to (4.4); e. on the basis of the statistical data obtained in (c) and (d), respectively, to estimate the unknown basic parameters of the process of initiating events i. the vector of the initial probabilities pl ð0Þ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω of the process of initiating events at the particular states el at the moment t 5 0; according to (4.6), ii. the matrix of realizations of the probabilities plj ; l; j 5 1; 2; . . .; ω; l 6¼ j of transitions of the process of initiating events from the state el into the state ej ; according to (4.8); f. to estimate parameters of distributions of the process of initiating events conditional sojourn times at particular states, according to (4.10)(4.17); g. to identify the distribution functions H lj ðtÞ; l; j 5 1; 2; . . .; ω; l 6¼ j of the process of initiating events conditional sojourn times θlj at the states, according to the scheme given in Section 4.1.3;

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h. on the basis of the statistical data obtained in (g) to define the matrix of conditional distribution functions H lj ðtÞ; l; j 5 1; 2; . . .; ω; l 6¼ j of the process of initiating events conditional sojourn times θlj at the state el , while its next transition will be done to the state ej ; according to (3.5); i. to estimate mean values M lj 5 E½θlj ; l; j 5 1; 2; . . .; ω; l 6¼ j of the process of initiating events conditional sojourn times θlj at the particular states, according to (3.9)(3.11). 2. Identification of the process of environment threats a. to fix the duration time of the experiment Θ; b. to collect the set of realizations of the conditional sojourn times ηijðk=lÞ i; j 5 1; 2; . . .; υk ; i 6¼ j; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω of the process of environment threats at the state siðk=lÞ when the next transition is to the state sjðk=lÞ ; c. to fix and collect statistical data necessary to evaluate the initial transient probabilities piðk=lÞ ð0Þ of the process of environment threats at the particular states at the initial moment t 5 0 i. the vector of realizations niðk=lÞ ð0Þ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; υk ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω of the numbers of the process of environment threats staying at the particular states siðk=lÞ at the initial moment t 5 0; according to (4.92), ii. the number of the process of environment threats realizations nðk=lÞ ð0Þ at the moment t 5 0; according to (4.93); d. to fix and collect statistical data necessary to evaluate the probabilities pijðk=lÞ of the process of environment threats transitions between its states i. the matrix of realizations nijðk=lÞ ; i; j 5 1; 2; . . .; υk ; i 6¼ j; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω of the numbers of the process of environment threats transitions from the state siðk=lÞ into the state sjðk=lÞ ; according to (4.94), ii. the vector of realizations of the total numbers niðk=lÞ ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; υk ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω of the process of environment threats transitions from the state siðk=lÞ ; according to (4.95); e. on the basis of the statistical data obtained in (c) and (d), respectively, to estimate the unknown basic parameters of the process of environment threats i. the vector of the initial probabilities piðk=lÞ ð0Þ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; υk ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω of the process of environment threats at the particular states siðk=lÞ at the moment t 5 0; according to (4.97), ii. the matrix of realizations of the probabilities pijðk=lÞ ; i; j 5 1; 2; . . .; υk ; i 6¼ j; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω of the process of environment threats transitions from the state siðk=lÞ into the state sjðk=lÞ ; according to (4.99); f. to estimate parameters of distributions of the process of environment threats conditional sojourn times at the particular states, according to (4.101)(4.108); ij g. to identify the distribution functions Hðk=lÞ ðtÞ; i; j 5 1; 2; . . .; υk ; i 6¼ j; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω of the process of environment threats conditional sojourn times ηijðk=lÞ ; at the particular states, according to scheme given in Section 4.3.3; h. on the basis of the statistical data obtained in (g) to define the matrix of conditional distribution functions ij Hðk=lÞ ðtÞ; i; j 5 1; 2; . . .; υk ; i 6¼ j; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω of the process of environment threats conditional sojourn times ηijðk=lÞ ; at the state siðk=lÞ , while its next transition will be done to the state sjðk=lÞ ; according to (3.24); ij i. to estimate mean values Mðk=lÞ 5 E½ηijðk=lÞ ; i; j 5 1; 2; . . .; υk ; i 6¼ j; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω of the process of environment threats conditional sojourn times ηijðk=lÞ at the particular states, according to (3.30)(3.34). 3. Identification of the process of environment degradation a. to fix the duration time of the experiment Θ; b. to collect the set of realizations of the conditional sojourn times ζ ijðk=υÞ i; j 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; i 6¼ j; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; i υ 5 1; 2; . . .; υk of the process of environment degradation at the state rðk=υÞ when the next transition is to the state j rðk=υÞ ; c. to fix and collect statistical data necessary to evaluate the initial transient probabilities qiðk=υÞ ð0Þ of the process of environment degradation at the particular states at the initial moment t 5 0 i. the vector of realizations niðk=υÞ ð0Þ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; υ 5 1; 2; . . .; υk of the numbers of the proi cess of environment degradation staying at the particular states rðk=υÞ at the initial moment t 5 0; according to (4.215), ii. the number of the process of environment degradation realizations nðk=υÞ ð0Þ at the moment t 5 0; according to (4.216); d. to fix and collect statistical data necessary to evaluate the probabilities qijðk=υÞ of the process of environment degradation transitions between its states i. the matrix of realizations nijðk=υÞ i; j 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; i 6¼ j; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; υ 5 1; 2; . . .; υk of the numbers of the j i process of environment degradation transitions from the state rðk=υÞ into the state rðk=υÞ ; according to (4.217),

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e.

f. g.

h.

i.

211

ii. the vector of realizations of the total numbers niðk=υÞ ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; υ 5 1; 2; . . .; υk of the i process of environment degradation transitions from the state rðk=υÞ ; according to (4.218); on the basis of the statistical data obtained in (c) and (d), respectively, to estimate the unknown basic parameters of the process of environment degradation i. the vector of the initial probabilities qiðk=υÞ ð0Þ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; υ 5 1; 2; . . .; υk of the process of i environment degradation at the particular states rðk=υÞ at the moment t 5 0; according to (4.220), ij ii. the matrix of realizations of the probabilities qðk=υÞ ; i; j 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; i 6¼ j; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; υ 5 1; 2; . . .; υk of j i the process of environment degradation transitions from the state rðk=υÞ into the state rðk=υÞ ; according to (4.222); to estimate parameters of distributions of process of environment degradation conditional sojourn times at the particular states, according to (4.224)(4.231); to identify the distribution functions Gijðk=υÞ ðtÞ; i; j 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; i 6¼ j; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; υ 5 1; 2; . . .; υk of the process of environment degradation conditional sojourn times ζ ijðk=υÞ at the particular states, according to scheme given in Section 4.5.3; on the basis of the statistical data obtained in (g) to define the matrix of conditional distribution functions Gijðk=υÞ ðtÞ; i; j 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; i 6¼ j; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; υ 5 1; 2; . . .; υk of the process of environment degradation condij i tional sojourn times ζ ijðk=υÞ at the state rðk=υÞ , while its next transition will be done to the state rðk=υÞ ; according to (3.50); ij to estimate mean values Mðk=υÞ 5 E½ζ ijðk=υÞ ; i; j 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; i 6¼ j; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; υ 5 1; 2; . . .; υk of the process of environment degradation conditional sojourn times ζ ijðk=υÞ at the particular states, according to (3.54)(3.56).

Prediction 1. Prediction of the process of initiating events a. to estimate mean values of unconditional sojourn times E½θl ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω of the process of initiating events at particular states, according to (3.13); b. to solve the system of equations (3.16); c. to estimate approximate limit values of transient probabilities at the particular states of the process of initiating events, according to (3.15); l d. to estimate the approximate mean values of the sojourn total times θ^ of the process of initiating events EðtÞ in the time interval, for example, θ 5 1 month at the particular states el ; according to (3.17). 2. Prediction of the process of environment threats a. to estimate mean values of unconditional sojourn times E½ηiðk=lÞ ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; υk ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; l 5 1; 2; . . .; ω of the process of environment threats at particular states, according to (3.36); b. to solve the system of equations (3.39); c. to estimate approximate limit values of transient probabilities at the particular states of the process of environment threats, according to (3.38); d. to estimate the approximate mean values of the sojourn total times η^ iðk=lÞ of the process of environment threats Sðk=lÞ ðtÞ in the time interval, for example, η 5 1 month at the particular states siðk=lÞ ; according to (3.40). 3. Prediction of the process of environment degradation a. to estimate mean values of unconditional sojourn times E½ζ iðk=υÞ ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; υ 5 1; 2; . . .; υk of the process of environment degradation at particular states, according to (3.58); b. to solve the system of equations (3.61); c. to estimate approximate limit values of transient probabilities at the particular states of the process of environment degradation, according to (3.60); i d. to estimate the approximate mean values of the sojourn total times ζ^ ðk=υÞ of the process of environment degradai tion Rðk=υÞ ðtÞ in the time interval, for example, ζ 5 1 month at the particular states rðk=υÞ ; according to (3.62). 4. Superposition of initiating events, environment threats, and environment degradation processes a. to estimate unconditional approximate limit transient probabilities, qiðkÞ , at the particular states of the process of environment degradation RðkÞ ðtÞ; according to (3.63); i b. to estimate the approximate mean values of the sojourn total time ζ^ ðkÞ of the unconditional process of environi ment degradation RðkÞ ðtÞ in the time interval, for example, θ 5 1 month at particular states rðkÞ , according to (3.64). 5. Prediction of accident losses

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i a. to fix losses LiðkÞ ðtÞ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 at the environment degradation state rðkÞ , according to (6.1); b. to estimate approximate expected value of the losses LðkÞ ðtÞ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 associated with the process of the environment degradation RðkÞ ðtÞ of the subarea Dk ; according to (6.2); c. to estimate the total expected value of the losses LðϕÞ associated with the process of the environment degradation RðtÞ in all subareas for the fixed time ϕ; ϕ . 0; according to (6.6). 6. Prediction of accident losses impacted by the climateweather change process a. to fix coefficients ½ρiðkÞ ðbÞ ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; b 5 1; 2; . . .; w of the climateweather change process i impact on the losses LiðkÞ ðtÞ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 at the environment degradation state rðkÞ , while the climateweather change process CðtÞ at the critical infrastructure accident area is at the climateweather state cb ; b. to estimate limit values of transient probabilities qb of the climateweather change process CðtÞ at the particular states cb ; c. to estimate losses ½LiðkÞ ðtÞðbÞ ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; b 5 1; 2; . . .; w at the environment degradation state i rðkÞ , while the climateweather change process CðtÞ is at the climateweather state cb ; according to (6.9); d. to estimate conditional approximate expected value of the losses ½LðkÞ ðtÞðbÞ ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; b 5 1; 2; . . .; w associated with the process of the environment degradation RðkÞ ðtÞ of the subarea Dk , while the climateweather change process CðtÞ is at the climateweather state cb ; according to (6.11); e. to estimate unconditional approximate expected value of the losses LðkÞ ðtÞ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 associated with the process of the environment degradation RðkÞ ðtÞ of the subarea Dk impacted by the climateweather change process CðtÞ; according to (6.13); f. to estimate the total expected value of the losses LðϕÞ associated with the process of the environment degradation RðtÞ in all subareas impacted by the climateweather change process CðtÞ, for the fixed time ϕ; ϕ . 0; according to (6.14); g. to estimate indicators RIðkÞ of the environment in the subareas Dk ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 resilience to the losses associated with the critical infrastructure accident related to the climateweather change, according to (6.15) and (6.17); h. to estimate indicator RI of the environment in the entire area D resilience to the losses associated with the critical infrastructure accident related to the climateweather change, according to (6.16) and (6.18).

Optimization 1. Optimization of accident losses was not impacted by the climateweather change process a. to formulate the optimization problem as a linear programming model with the objective function of the form given by (7.1); b. to fix the optimal value q_iðkÞ i 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 of the limit transient probabilities qiðkÞ ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 that minimize the objective functions given by (7.1), using procedure given in Section 7.1; c. to estimate the optimal value of losses L_ðkÞ ðtÞ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 ; according to (7.17). 2. Optimization of accident losses impacted by the climateweather change process a. to formulate the optimization problem as a linear programming model with the objective function of the form given by (7.18); b. to fix the optimal value qb q_iðkÞ i 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; b 5 1; 2; . . .; w; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 of the limit transient probabilities qb qiðkÞ ; i 5 1; 2; . . .; ‘k ; b 5 1; 2; . . .; w; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 that minimize the objective functions given by (7.18), using procedure given in Section 7.2; c. to estimate the optimal value of losses L_ ðkÞ ðtÞ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 impacted by the climateweather change process, according to (7.34); d. to estimate the optimal indicator RI_ðkÞ of the environment in the subareas Dk ; k 5 1; 2; . . .; n3 resilience to the losses associated with the critical infrastructure accident related to the climateweather change, according to (7.35); e. to estimate the optimal indicator RI_ of the environment in the entire area D resilience to the losses associated with the critical infrastructure accident related to the climateweather change, according to (7.36).

Mitigation 1. To suggest the new strategy assuring lower environment losses.