Application of multicriteria decision-making methods for the optimal evacuation

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13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Modern and Safe Transport 13th International 2019), Scientific Conference on Sustainable, and Safe Transport (TRANSCOM High Tatras, Novy Smokovec –Modern Grand Hotel Bellevue, (TRANSCOM 2019),Slovak High Tatras, Novy Smokovec – Grand Hotel Bellevue, Republic, May 29-31, 2019 Slovak Republic, May 29-31, 2019

Application of multicriteria decision-making methods for the Application of multicriteria decision-making methods for the optimal evacuation optimal evacuation a a a a a a

Daniel Brezina *, Ladislav Šimák , Mária Hudáková , Matej Masár Daniel Brezinaa*, Ladislav Šimáka, Mária Hudákováa, Matej Masára

University of Žilina, Faculty of Security Engineering, Department of Crisis Management, Univerzitná 8215/1, 010 26 Žilina, Slovakia University of Žilina, Faculty of Security Engineering, Department of Crisis Management, Univerzitná 8215/1, 010 26 Žilina, Slovakia

Abstract Abstract Crisis events every day endanger human society. New research in crisis management assume that number of crisis events will increase. It creates newendanger assumption to protect property, environment. Crisis management fulfills its roles in ever Crisis events every aday human society.life, New researchand in the crisis management assume that number of crisis events will more complex conditions, nowadays. Ittoisprotect necessary increaseand to use efficiency increase. It creates a new assumption life, to property, the effectiveness environment. crisis Crisismanagement. management The fulfills its rolesofincrisis ever management use new integrating into management In this article, decision-making more complexcan conditions, nowadays. methods It is necessary to increase processes. to use effectiveness crisismulticriteria management. The efficiency methods of crisis are used and compared by integrating criteria, which was established. Based processes. on this, may management authorities choose the processes management can use new methods into management In crisis this article, multicriteria decision-making methods of solution. Mainby goal of this contribution is application methods, which may bechoose used in arecrisis used and compared criteria, which was established. Basedof ondecision-making this, may crisis management authorities theevacuation processes process. of crisis solution. Main goal of this contribution is application of decision-making methods, which may be used in evacuation process. © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility the scientific committee of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, © 2019 The Authors. Published byof Elsevier B.V. committee Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Modern (TRANSCOM 2019). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific Modern and and Safe Safe Transport Transport (TRANSCOM 2019). committee of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Modern and Safe Transport (TRANSCOM 2019). Keywords: crisis management; crisis events; evacuation; transport problems; decision-making processes Keywords: crisis management; crisis events; evacuation; transport problems; decision-making processes

1. Introduction 1. Introduction Issues of crisis solution are more and more actual. The emergence of crisis events is very hard to predict. If some Issues occurs, of crisis itsolution are more andpeople more actual. Thebe emergence events is veryThe hardquestions to predict. some situation may threat many who will exposed of to crisis negative factors. ofIfpublic situation occurs,role it may threat of many people be exposed negative Tasks factors. of public administration's in process solving the who crisiswill events is actual to nowadays. of The localquestions government in the administration's in process of important, solving thetoo. crisis is actual Tasks local government the process of crisis role solution are very It isevents necessary to benowadays. prepared to deal of with crisis events forinlocal process of crisis solutionatare important, too.optimize It is necessary to be of prepared with crisisthrough events choosing for local government institutions all very levels. The authors the process reactiontotodeal crisis events government institutions at all levels. The authors optimize the process of reaction to crisis events through choosing * Corresponding author address:author [email protected] * E-mail Corresponding E-mail address: [email protected] 2352-1465 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review responsibility of the scientific committee 2352-1465 ©under 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Moder n and Safe Transport (TRANSCOM 2019). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Moder n and Safe Transport (TRANSCOM 2019). 2352-1465  2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Modern and Safe Transport (TRANSCOM 2019). 10.1016/j.trpro.2019.07.135

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optimal variant of evacuation route from concrete place that has been affected by flood to places for evacuees. Main goal of this contribution is application of decision-making methods, which may be used in evacuation process. 2. Theoretical background and actual status of the crisis management As Loveček (2015) writes, the increasing number and intensity of non-military crisis events such as disasters, manmade accidents, terrorist attacks, threats to public health, and their impacts on society, requires more emphasis on the preparedness of the crisis management system. According to Kučera (2002) a crisis can be understood as a situation of different time and intensity, during which decision-making processes play a dominant role. A crisis events are all extraordinary events, emergencies, crisis situations, crises and crises status that may occur in different spheres of social, technical and natural environments. Despite the versatility of this term, it is not one of the often used ones. This term is universal, but less commonly used in literature and public (Šimák 2016). The crisis relates to the need to apply the principles of crisis management and the temporary limitation of fundamental rights and freedoms (Šimák 2005). According to Míka (2009), it is very important to have some knowledge about the behavior of the systems, their functions and their links in solution of individual crisis events. In the case of natural disasters, it is difficult to predict their origin and overall course. For this reason, there is a need for a specific type of management that deals with this issue and is known as crisis management. Kadarová (2009) understands crisis management as a scientific discipline that allows the creation of processes to prevent the emergence of crisis events and to solve the emerging crisis events. In the process of ensuring the protection of population, crisis management at local government level has significant and irreplaceable function during the preparation and solution of crisis phenomena. The main aim of crisis management at local government level is ensure the management of crisis phenomena in the respective competencies of crisis management authorities (Procházková, 2010). Crisis management at local government level is characterized as a set of activities, starting with a comprehensive analysis of security risks and threats, taking preventive measures, crisis planning, crisis response and control of activities carried out during prevention as well as crisis solution (Neubauerová 2010). Some of the preparation activities may run concurrently with mitigation efforts and response actions (Titko 2018). The effectiveness work crisis managers at local government level reflects the purposeful structure, optimal legal security and especially the competencies and preparedness of the individual crisis management entities. Competencies are defined in the legislation governing the crisis management section (Neubauerová 2010). According to Gozora (2010), legal framework of crisis management in the conditions of Slovak Republic contains a wide range of acts, for example the Constitution of the Slovak Republic, acts of civil protection, state defense, internal security, including acts and decrees about organization and activities of public sector, industrial accident prevention, financing during crisis phenomena and others. All legal acts when authors cited have character for conditions for all territory of Slovak Republic. Within crisis management system, District Offices are governed by laws and lower laws that create space for both the appropriate preparation and implementation of preventive measures against the crisis events, and an effective response to crises. These two areas are closely linked and treated by Act No. 42/1994 about civil protection. The Act no. 387/2002 about the state management in crisis situations outside times of war and war status defines crisis plans as documents for crisis planning in which detailed measures are solving the crisis situations. The status, establishment and composition of crisis staffs are described in the Act no. 387/2002 about the state management in crisis situations outside times of war and war status. Crisis staffs are not established but are created by actual situation at different levels (state, regional, district and local). Commisions for the solution of crisis events are part of crisis staff. According to Melvin (2012) decision-making process involves choosing from the available alternatives to possible best practice. As Veber (2000) consider, the decision-making process as a solution to problems, which have at least two variants of solution. It is important to focus attention on the overall vulnerability analysis and structural causes of crisis events emergencies (Cutter 2013). As Míka (2007) writes, phases of decision-making process consist of 7 steps: (1) identification of the problem, (2) detailed analysis of the problem, (3) definition of criteria characterizing the adequacy of an appropriate solution, (4) creating of possible variants of solutions, (5) determining of method of choosing the optimal solution, (6) choosing the appropriate solution, (7) formulation and implementation of the decision-making.



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Crisis plan taking into account the time, spatial and professional dimensions of crisis planning. According to Sanseverino-Godfrin (2016), protection for society has created prerequisites for a link between the prevention of serious natural disasters and planning documents at local government level. As Kyselák (2012) writes, evacuation is characterized as a summary of the activities of the managing and executive powers, aimed at the timely and organized population eviction, the relocation of assets and animals or the emptying of endangered parts of the territory. Authors choose this topic because optimal evacuation is one of the main options protection of life and health of the population. Software support is needed with using modern methods and technologies in crisis management system, including crisis management at local government level. One of the most actual software is MATLAB. MATLAB is specialized by numerical calculations and algorithm design that the authors will later use. Based on Tomek (2014), it is needed to answer on 8 question in evacuation process: 1. Why is evacuation needed? 2. Is needed to evacuate peoples, animals, or things? 3. Haw many/ much peoples, animals, or things is necessary to evacuate? 4. What time is suit for evacuation? 5. Where is starting point and finish point of evacuation? 6. How it is necessary to evacuate, and which transport vehicles is possible to use? 7. How much time we have for evacuation? 8. Who manage evacuation? 3. Data and methodology Main theoretical goal of this article is to pointed out more effective crisis management at local government level in order to optimization of decision-making processes. In the article decision-making analysis methods of an operational analysis is applied and used software support. These methods provide for crisis management units selection of optimal solution processes of crisis events. Main goal of contribution is application of decision-making methods, which may be used in evacuation process. The methodology, which was used in this article is based on an analysis of crisis management system at local government level be interview with representatives of district offices in the Žilina region and application of decisionmaking analysis methods of an operational analysis for transport problems of evacuation. Decision-making analysis methods work with the information obtained during the phase of problem analysis. It quantifies both the effect and the risk of decision by a large number of criteria. Generally, this means that the decision-making analysis methods are related to the problem of multi-criteria optimization. The most important step in the decision-making analysis is the selection of criteria. The Satty's method is based on a pair comparison of the degree of relevance of the individual criteria and the measure as the evaluated variant of the solution that these criteria meet. The rating scale is relatively complex. The evaluation is based on an expert judgment, in which the experts of the given field compare the mutual influences of the two factors. They evaluate on the basis of the scale: same - weak - medium - strong - very strong, with this verbal evaluation corresponding to the values in the following Table 1. Table 1. The basic scale of rating pair of Satty's method. Intensity of importance

Definition

Explanation

1

Same importance

Two elements are equally involved in target intervention.

3

Less importance of one element relative to the other

Small preference one attribute before the other.

5

Significant importance

Very much preference one attribute before the other.

7

Demonstrable importance

Highly dominance one attribute is demonstrated in practice.

9

Absolute importance

Evident favouring one attribute before another.

2,4,6,8

Median values between two assessments

Compromise of assignment to these definitions of importance.

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The first and most important phase is to create a model for decision making. This includes a list of variants and criteria hierarchy. Each variation must include a description of its own characteristics. It is also appropriate to specify the details for each criterion. Variants of the transport process represent different routes for the evacuation. These provide input data for optimizing decision-making processes. Table 2. Input data for next calculations. Criterion/Variant No.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Average traffic intensity [cars/day]

12 431

13 005

15 192

11 908

15 841

14 075

12 326

13 845

Distance routes for the evacuation [km]

5,2

9,0

6,9

2,8

10,3

3,7

3,3

5,5

Number of technical means

8

9

11

6

14

5

6

9

Technical state of the route

Quality

Satisfactory

Highquality

Satisfactory

Highquality

Highquality

Less satisfactory

Quality

Number of traffic accidents per 1 year

4

4

11

2

21

8

5

7

Transport costs per 1 evacuees [€]

0,8517

0,8925

0,8792

0,8443

0,9290

0,8453

0,8411

0,8496

Average traffic intensity (Criterion No. 1) is calculated from partial intensities by dividing each route variant into individual smaller segment of the road. This information can be found on the Slovak Road Administration web portal. Account must also be taken of the percentages of the individual segment of the road. Distance routes for the evacuation (Criterion No. 2) can also be found on websites in some cases. Technical means regulating traffic flow (Criterion No. 3) represent all traffic lights, railway tracks and traffic signs (for example STOP, speed limiter, priority way, priority at crossroads,…). Technical conditions of the route (Criterion No. 4) can be determined on the basis of a visual assessment. Number of traffic accidents per 1 year (Criterion No. 5) can be found on Ministry of Interior website. Transport costs per 1 evacuee (Criterion No. 6) was calculated by online calculator (taking into account car brands, average fuel consumption, costs per 1 kilometer of ride, average gross daily earnings of bus driver, food expenditure for 1 bus driver and number of people in 1 bus). It is important that the criteria take into account the current conditions on the route. The solution process of article consists of 8 phases: 1. Creating of matrix for the criteria and individual variants and their mutual comparison according to Saaty's method (1-equivalent, 9 most preferred), 2. Inputting matrix values into software MATLAB, which authors used for the calculations, 3. Generation output data for the next calculation (especially own matrix numbers and own matrix vectors), 4. Selection of the highest matrix number and the corresponding vector, 5. Creating of ratio multiplicity, 6. Multiplying criteria weight with vectors of highest matrix number, 7. Calculation order of variants according to Saaty's method and according to generate results through software MATLAB (especially geometric average and ratio multiplicity), 8. Classifying variants by size of weighted sum and establishing optimal variant of route for transport evacuees. 4. Results and discussion Based on Tomek (2014) was solved transport problem in this case study. Case study represents evacuation of certain amount people from concrete place that has been affected by 100-years flood. Horelica (part of the city of Čadca) was determined as concrete place, that is needed to evacuate (Fig. 1). There was determined 8 places for evacuations where there is no danger to life or property caused by the flood (primary and secondary schools located



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in short distance from place intended for evacuation). The authors evaluate 8 route variants for transport evacuation and they choose optimal variant.

Fig. 1. Place intended for evacuation (Horelica).

It is necessary to evacuate 1400 people from Horelica (part of the city of Čadca) for the continuous rise of the Kysuca river level. There was determined 8 places for evacuations where there is no danger to life or property caused by the flood (primary and secondary schools located in short distance from place intended for evacuation). The authors evaluate 8 route variants for transport evacuation and they choose optimal variant. This evacuation planning was provided in phase of crisis prevention. Horelica was targeted by flood annually (but only with low impact). It is necessary to create preparedness for 10 or 100 years flood in this area. Evacuation process was established for Horelica area, because have crisis management authorities have not prepare evacuation plane for this time. It was prepare based on consultation with crisis management authorities in Čadca 8 main evacuation ways. Authors not report pair comparison for the criteria and individual variants by Saaty's method for the scope of this article. Own matrix vectors have values in diagonal of the matrix. Individual values of own matrix vectors are listed in the Table 3. Table 3. Output data for the next calculation. Pair comparison of

Values own matrix vectors

Mutual criteria

6,7134

Variants by criterion No. 1

9,1174

Variants by criterion No. 2

9,0128

Variants by criterion No. 3

8,2689

Variants by criterion No. 4

8,4931

Variants by criterion No. 5

13,7301

Variants by criterion No. 6

13,3347

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Own matrix vectors determine rows, respectively columns from which we choose own matrix numbers. Geometric average was calculated by Matlab. Ratio multiplicity was calculated as ratio between the individual values of geometric average and the sum of all values of geometric average. Table 4. Decision-making matrix by software MATLAB Criterion No. / Variant No. 1 2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

0,4279

0,1486

0,1144

0,0271

0,3838

0,0212

0,0555

0,1813

0,0682

2

0,2612

0,0996

0,0343

0,0417

0,3263

0,0190

0,1956

0,2173

0,0660

3

0,1598

0,0915

0,0618

0,0388

0,2424

0,0224

0,3476

0,1382

0,0573

4

0,0814

0,1205

0,0500

0,2032

0,0603

0,2032

0,2032

0,0524

0,1072

5

0,0472

0,2014

0,2014

0,0452

0,0951

0,0767

0,0938

0,1395

0,1470

6

0,0225

0,1363

0,0310

0,1880

0,1998

0,0859

0,1177

0,2242

0,0572

Weighted sum

0,1266

0,0820

0,0516

0,3021

0,0397

0,1540

0,1723

0,0725

Order of variants

4

5

7

1

8

3

2

6

The criteria are very important aspects for the correct evaluation of individual variants.. The authors of this article conclude that the optimal variant of route for transport evacuees is variant No. 4. This results were acquired by Saaty's method and through software MATLAB. Order of variants is same in both cases. This case study clearly showed the need to have more solution options of crisis events, in the particular case more routes for transport evacuees from concrete place that has been affected by flood to places for evacuees. A lot of decision-making issues in crisis management system can be used a quantitative analysis of the decision-making problem, which can provide the best solution. The multi-criteria decision-making method and its modifications can be applied in the preparatory phase of crisis management, especially in crisis planning, risk prevention, optimization of decision-making processes, as well as source, time or cost analysis. Basic software tools can be used to apply quantitative methods in practice. However, the use of MATLAB in crisis management practice requires some specification of activities. A MATLAB or other software tool could be effective for multi-criteria evaluation tasks. 5. Conclusion Transport has a significant role in solution of crisis events. It is part of all crisis management activities. Possible threats to the population by natural disasters, for example floods, are just one of the possible crisis events. The issue of transport ensure is very extensive in the process of crisis solution. Optimizing the organization at local government level is also closely related to the optimization of decisions-making processes. Emphasis should also be put on the creation of the most effective environment for cooperation of all those involved in the process of solution of crisis events. The current increase and severity of natural disasters requires a change of access to disaster management on the part of the state as well as on the part of the population. Acknowledgements Publication of this paper was supported by the Scientific Grant Agency of the Ministry of Education, Science, Research and Sport of the Slovak Republic – KEGA No. 030ŽU-4/2018 „Research of Risk Management in Enterprises in Slovakia to create a new study program Risk Management for the FBI University of Žilina“, VEGA No. 1/0805/18 „Establishing the principles and sequence of steps to measure the awareness and preparedness of the population to the risks of natural disasters and institutional grant project“ and IGP201801 „Proposal of principles and procedure for risk assessment of short-term projects in a company in Slovakia “.



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