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Applying Adaptive Control Principles to Resolving International Conflicts
12.2-1 INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT RESOLUTION I
Copyright © IFAC 10th Triennial World Congress. Munich. FRG, 1987
APPLYING ADAPTIVE CONTROL PRINCIPLES TO RESOLVING INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS H. Chestnut SH' llS FOllllda/ioll illl., 1226 H'a llrrlI Pla c(', SCil(,lIfc/ady. Nr 12308. USA
Abstract. The danger of nuclear war represents a real and catastrophic threat to modern civilization. A possible way for reducing such a threat is to develop non-military means of international conflict resolution to take advantage of improved information handling capabilities to facilitate decision-making and control. Use should be made of adaptive control principles which recogn1ze the possibility of cooperative, competitive, and confrontational perceptions of opposing nations as well as the possible normal, alert, and emergency st~tes of a cooperative security system. Better use should be made of existing conflict resolution means, as well as ?f the. successes of technical cooperation between people 1n nat10ns of different ideologies and/or different forms of government. Major incentives and motivations exist for greatly increased efforts toward developing expert systems for helping to facilitate better means for resolving international conflicts. Keywords. Adaptive control; expert systems; international conflict resolution; normal, alert, and emergency states; nuclear war; international stability; cooperat1ve security system; failure modes and effects analysis; conflict resolution methods; global modeling.
the benefits of advanced technology to be made available to the people of these nations. The recognition that the relationships between nations can change with time, ranging from various conditions of peace to various conditions of war, should make it possible to develop some sort of adaptive control means for decision-making that will endeavor to bias the relationship between countries in the direction of more peaceful conditions over time (Chestnut 1986a).
INTRODUCTION A need exists for ways of preventing nuclear war that could threaten the end of the present world civilization. Although most world leaders agree that there would be no winner in a present-day nuclear war, there is considerable concern that some minor conflict between nations might escalate into a full-scale nuclear war among major nuclear powers (Powers-1985). In an effort to improve international stability, a continuing study is underway to seek ways to use technology to improve the means for resolving international conflicts -- in particular, before these international conflicts reach the condition of war between major world powers (Chestnut 1986a). This report addresses the subject of ways of applying adaptive control principles to resolving international conflicts.
Recent accidents, such as those caused by severe chemical spills, atomic power plant malfunctions, and space vehicle explosions, have indicated some of the severe consequences that can happen to systems that were designed to be cooperative and functionally beneficial. It should be quite evident that, if modern industrialized nations were to attack each other deliberately in even a non-nuclear war, the devastation that could be caused would be so great that the recovery period might last a decade or longer.
There is a basic need for national security that can provide a safe environment in which the technically advanced systems that are in existence, as well as those being built, can be used effectively to help the people of these nations to realize the benefits that are possible with the present-day high technology. Industrialized capitalist, socialist, as well as various other national economic systems all require a peaceful environment, in terms of the relationships between these countries, for
There appear to be significant advantages to be gained from developing non-military means for international conflict resolution. Increased efforts at developing alternative means for resolving international conflicts using non-military solutions should be sought. These alternative means should permit, in an adaptive sense, a range of leadership
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responses in resolving international conflicts - especially those responses that will take advantage of times of peace to use peacemaking and peace building methods for creating better opportunities for developing more peaceful relationships between the countries involved. An information system is needed that will enable the nations' leadership to be aware of potential causes for conflicts as well as of possible methods for resolving such conflicts without resorting to war. OVERVIEW The principles of closed loop control have in many cases enabled people to obtain far more desirable performance from man-machine systems than when such principles as those of closed loop feedback were not employed. These closed loop principles involve (1) providing a reference signal to a process, (2) comparing that reference with the measured performance of the process, and (3) using that difference to provide a basis for control of the decision-making process. In the case we are considering here, the reference can refer to the objective of resolving international conflicts without resorting to military force. (Chestnut, 1986b) Adaptive control principles recognize that a system may have many different parts or conditions of operation and that the reference or desired cperation for the system may change with time or other conditions of system operation. An adaptive control is one which determines what are the present or other measured or estimated conditions of the system and which alters either its reference or its method of control to accommodate to those present and estimated future conditions. "An adaptive control changes the control parameters or the control response in accord with other changes in the system to improve overall system perfpormance. The objective of an adaptive control system is to have the control self-adjust or self-optimize the system performance in the light of changing system conditions." (Chestnut, 1965) Although control principles are not customarily associated with international relations, there may be some significant advantages in seeing how international relations may benefit by suitable use of adaptive control concepts and methods. In particular, emphasis can and should be placed on recognizing that the characteristics of people and countries can and do change with time- over short (days), medium (weeks and months), and long (years and decades) time periods. In many cases the control and systems engineers have designed, built, and operated the systems that are essential for the nation's people to live the way that they do. These control people may have considerable knowledge and awareness of the changes that are possible and desirable. Likewise politicians, business people, military people and others should be aware that the nature of the relationships between nations can and should be flexible and adaptable so as to reduce the likelihood of international conflict and war.
In considering the reasons for conflict occurring between nations, it is worthwhile to keep in mind that there is a large number of major causes for wars among nations that have been identified from past conflicts. Many previous wars have been analyzed and observations and conclusions have been drawn indicating the apparent causes, reasons, and contributing factors leading to war. (Galtung, 1975) (Glossop, 1982) (Taylor, 1978) (Woito, 1982) (Wright, 1964) Obvious observations are that there are many different causes for war and that any group of people charged with trying to avoid future wars must be looking for several different categories of possible causes. Whereas the communication and transportation means of the past were very much more limited than they are today, people now have much better access to finding out on a short time basis what appear to be the facts with which the evaluation and conflict resolution processes can be started and carried forth. Furthermore, there has been a great deal of work on such information systems as those concerned with expert systems and artificial intelligence that help in the trouble-shooting of large technical and physical systems. It would be of interest to have more of that skill applied to the international conflict resolution efforts. (Reddy, 1983) A challenge to the systems and control engineers and scientists is to work with people who are familiar with the existing and possible national systems and their potentiality for instability and conflict. An additional challenge is to apply adaptive control principles to develop, design, and operate national systems that can provide more peaceful ways for resolving international conflicts. During the learning process of developing new and improved controlled systems, the overriding needs have been those of providing stable systems operation (De Greene, 1985) and the ability to understand and steer the systems being directed onto desirable paths and trajectories. In thinking of the importance of providing some greater measure of stability to the highly technological world of nations in which we live, it has often occurred to some people that more effort could be spent in a worthwhile fashion if these control efforts were devoted to ways of reducing the likelihood of wars occurring, rather that focussing their efforts primarily on how to win a war when the armed conflict breaks out. (Powers, 1985)
This paper attempts to summarize some of the work that has taken place in the past six years and more by control engineers and scientists, working with political scientists, social scientists, economists, peace researchers, and others, to describe ways in which international conflicts can be resolved before they become critical to the point where military solutions appear to be a more satisfactory method for solution. (Chestnut, 1984a) (Kile, 1986)
Resolving International Conflicts
BASIC ASSUMPTIONS In defining a system such as an information system for helping to resolve international conflicts, it is necessary to describe the basic underlying assumptions that are to be included in the system that is to be developed. Depending on the nature of these assumptions, the subsequent international conflict resolution system that results may be different. Although different designers may start with different assumptions, for the purposes of this paper, a set of typical assumptions will be set forth to provide an indication of how different assumptions may exist and how the presence of such basic assumptions can influence the international conflict resolution process. 1. International System is made up of sovereign states. Each nation is assumed to be looking after its own interests as far as national security is concerned, although in some instances a country is willing to be associated with one or more other countries in some sort of protective alliance. For the present most countries are willing to join the United Nations, but they are not willing to assign the responsibility for their national security to some international police force. Thus, each country is looking after its own interests as perceived by its governing bodies or leaders. The nature of the relationship between any pair of countries can range through a number of conditions from stable peace through several degrees of less peaceful existence to a condition of unstable peace, to a less peaceful condition of unstable war, that may lead to a condition of sustained and continuous conflict that can be called stable war. Depending on the current peace/war conflict condition that exists between two nations, the procedure for resolving conflicts between them may differ. In other than military matters the sovereign states may be willing to enter into trade or banking agreements in which a fair measure of trust may be demonstrated despite the existence of national sovereignty interests. 2. International Conflicts are Inevitable The advent of greater interdependence within nations as well as between nations has heightened the likelihood of conflicts since people with different needs and interests share common facilities and activities. Although efforts in the past have often tried to encourage people to live in such a way that there would be no conflict between people or nations, the assumption that is made here is that conflicts between countries will exist and peaceful means for resolving them must be sought and developed. In particular, groups of experts in the particular fields in which the conflicts arise will be asked to seek out solutions acceptable to both nations involved. 3. There are Organized Procedures for Resolving Conflicts Within each nation there are one or more ways for resolving conflicts that are used to settle disputes. Although there
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may be drawbacks to each of the methods involved, in general all of the methods employed try not to use military force as the basis for conflict resolution within a nation. In the system for resolving international conflicts it is also desirable to establish international conflict resolution means that are based on ways that do not require military force. (Fogg, 1985) It is important in these methods of conflict resolution that there be an awareness of the perceived needs and values not only of the nation of the decision-maker, but also the needs for the other nations involved. (Kile, 1986) Further, a knowledge of the conflict resolution procedures of the nations involved is highly desirable and importan t. (Fisher, 1981) As an example of steps useful in international conflict resolution, consider the following: (1) Determine Parties and Objectives, (2) Find the Facts, (3) Identify Alternative Options, (4) Evaluate Alternatives as Perceived by Each Party, (5) Negotiate the Agreements, (6) Carry Out and Monitor the Agreement, (7) Terminate the Conflict, and (8) Review the Methodological Aspects. Steps such as these, or some procedures similar to them, should be established and agreed upon in times of normal relations when the procedures are not needed, so that they will be available when they are needed. (Chestnut, 1986a) 4.Potential Areas for Conflict Needing Resolution can be Identified. In order to make progress in efforts toward successful conflict resolution, it is desirable to identify potential areas where conflicts might arise, to establish groups from the two or more nations involved, and to assign to these groups the responsibility for reducing the likelihood of conflict in their assigned category. Thus, the basis for conflict will be considered in the light of what is happening in several categories, not simply on what is happening in any single category. Each category identified should be capable of being monitored, explored, and understood in such a way that successful solutions may be arrived at. These categories can be identified in terms of nat~onal sectors as used by each nation, or 1n terms of specific topics such as food, housing, water, energy, boundaries, etc. Even though the initial choice of these categories may not prove particularly useful, these choices should form the basis for a subsequent improved selection. 5. Measurement Means and Criteria for Monitoring can be Found. Of particular significance in the matter of international conflict resolution is the matter of whether the parties involved consider the conditions to be normal, alert, or emergency vis-a-vis the other country. Depending on this perception by each of parties of the actions of the other country, the other party will see what should be its
H. Chestnut appropriate action. If necessary, it will be required to look at the problem in more detail and to establish a better base of information. 6. Various Possible Alternative Actions can be Explored. Through the use of models, simulations, discussions with knowledgeable experts from both the nations involved, as well as with third-party experts, it should be possible to get various impressions of what may be the outcome of possible alternative actions. It may not be necessary to get precise information for the future, but it is often sufficient to learn what are thought to be the likely possibilities. Much work has been done on national and global models, and there seems to be an increasing confidence that such models can be useful in general, even thought they may not be precise in detail. (Clark, 1975) (Falk, 1966) (Guetzkow, 1981) (Meadows, 1982) 7. Incentives and Motivations for Peace can be Developed. In each of the countries involved the people responsible for the decision-making that causes a country to go to war can be provided with financial incentives associated with keeping a country out of war, with honors or prestige of a patriotic nature, or with political rewards that may have particular appeal to the persons responsible for the peacemaking efforts. The Nobel Peace Prize is an example of one form of incentive. Recognition at various levels of duty could also be designed and awarded for appropriate accomplishments. With the huge amounts of money being spent for arming for war, there are potential savings to be made that could loom large to persons who contribute to lowering somewhat the expenditures for the military. Motivation for accomplishment of progress for peace must be possible. CONFLICTING NATIONS AS PART OF AN INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM Although nations tend to be considered in terms of their individual internal needs and accomplishments, in reality they are embedded in an international system in which outputs of one nation can and do impact as part of the environment or disturbances of other nations. It is important that nations be viewed both as separate systems and as subsystems of a higher level international system. (Haimes, 1982) It is worthwhile to note that some of the interactions of one nation on another take the form of information or perceptions which are difficult to measure but which nevertheless can have a significant influence on the manner of behavior of one nation on another. As will be noted below, the relationships between nations as they influence conflict not only are functions of the perceived conditions of peace/war between the nations but also are functions of the cooperative, competitive, or confrontational attitude of the nations toward one another. Further, the current status of the relations between countries,
whether this status be considered to be normal, alert, or emergency, is also an important factor in establishing the appropriate actions to be taken in the process of resolving conflicts between nations. It would appear clear that there is an opportunity here for a decision-making and control rationale which should be adaptive and responsive to the nature of the conditions of peace/war which exist between the nations. In applying adaptive control principles to resolving international conflicts it will be advantageous to change the perception of the leadership and direction of the nation from that of an open-loop response of reacting to unstabilizing or conflict activities as they occur, to a closed-loop situation in which possible causes of conflict can be identified and their conditions monitored. Based on mutual understanding of the possible causes of conflict and the various ways available for decreasing the likelihood of conflict to occur, an appreciable reduction in the number of conflicts which are allowed to be of more than minor significance should be possible. (Chestnut, 1985b) Further, by having local, regional, and even lower levels of international conflict resolution available for settling such international disputes, there would be more chances to find ways for settling the disputes that can not be settled at the lower levels. All international conflicts need not have world attention in their initial stages. As a useful step in this direction, means should be established to develop generic cooperative security systems to encourage the nations involved to use peaceful means for resolving their differences. (Chestnut, 1984b) Block Diagram of a Single Nation Figure 1 shows a simplified block diagram for a single nation in which the accomplishments of the nation are the outputs of the national processes. These outputs are measured and have data gathered on them to provide perceptions of what is happening in the country. The perceptions are compared to the expectations of the country. The discrepancies between the national expectations and the perceptions represent inputs to a decision-making and control process which produces outputs of actions that should modify the national processes to bring them into closer correspondence with the national expectations and aspirations. (Chestnut, 1986b) It will be noted that the national processes have natural and man-made disturbances that may upset the national processes from their anticipated values. Likewise there may be perceived external disturbances which may influence decision-making and control and cause them to function in other than the best fashion. Thus, although the expectation-accomplishment loop appears to be quite controllable, enough uncertainty and delay exist in some of the national processes that it is by no means certain that control of the national processes can be readily realized in a stable fashion.
Resohing Int ernational Conllicts At the next higher level of complexity the expectations of the nation are themselves an input from an understanding and comprehension process. This process itself has inputs from information derived from basic knowledge and understanding, from data gathering and measurements from this and other nations, as well as from disturbances. From this outer loop of information it is possible to provide still other bases for changes to the national processes which can cause these processes, over time, to behave in ways different than would be the case if they were operated without these external inputs from other countries. Interaction of Nations with Transfer of Goods and Services The preceding material has emphasized a single nation in which the influence of other nations was considered as disturbances to the nation being studied. Shown in Figure 2 are the interactions of two nations, A and B, in which the transfer of goods, services , funds are indicated. Each nation could have been represented in more detail in the fashion of Figure 1 if it were so desired. Although not described specifically, needless to say, the transfer of people may well be included in some of the transfer processes. No coupling between the national decision-makers for the two countries shown is indicated corresponding more to a condition of confrontation perhaps than one of cooperation. It is of interest to note the key role of the national decision-makers in Nations A and B in that they provide the reference signals to their respective nation's sectors, inputs which in turn establish the goals and objectives for the various sectors of these nations. At present, there has been insufficient emphasis by the national leaders to implement seriously tangible ways in which international conflicts can be systematically identified and organized ways established for achieving peaceful solutions to these conflicts. Actually, in a number of specialized fields the world can and does act as a single large-scale international information system for exchanging information. For example, the field of air traffic control has developed on an international basis, and the World Health Organization also operates on a global scale of effort. The International Telecommunications Union is another organization that is designed to perform on a worldwide set of common agreements . Likewise, organizations like the International Federation of Automatic Control (IFAC) and the International Federation of Information Processing (IFIP) bring people together to share their skills for the mutual benefit of the persons involved and their organizations and nations. (Haimes, 1982) For decades now there have been ongoing s tudi es in the field of understanding the interaction of the world's nations on each other. The work of Siegmann on Recent Developments in World Modeling (Siegmann, 19 85) provides a
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comprehensive summary of more than 27 modeling efforts to underst a nd better the internaction of nations on each other. And progress is being made to make some of these global models available on a personal computer for easier use. The opportunity exists for increased cooperation between nations, and ways should be undertaken to develop more means for cooperative activities that can facilitate international conflict resolution. STATUS OF PEACE/WAR RELATIONSHIPS BETlvEEN NATIONS Although the section previous to this one showed the components and activities of a single nation, and of more than one nation, insufficient emphasis was placed on the influence that the range of peace/war relationships can have on the activities of these countries. It is worthwhile to recognize the broad spectrum of relationships that can exist between conditions of peace and conditions of war. Instead of using a very Simpl i stic definition of peace as being the absence of war, let us consider the peace/war relationship to be a more expanded continuum of possibilities ranging from stable war to stable peace as shown in Table 1. Although there are five intermediate peace/war conditions shown in Table 1, and the definition of the various conditions shown there is somewhat sketchy , it is useful to develop in more detail the fact that changes in the peace/war processes at anyone time can shift the condition of the attitudes (or perceptions) of one nation as viewed by the other. (Galtung, 1975) (Chestnut, 1985b) As brought out in the Report of the Second Midwest Conference for the United States Institute of Peace held in Iowa City on May 29-30 , 1986
1. "Peace is not a static condition which, when reached, will continue of it own inertia, a kind of Nirvana on earth; rather it is a way of dealing with conflicts in non-violent ways, a very complex and difficult process , to which there is no end. 2. "P eace is not merely the absence of war, but encompasses a great variety of activities, including commercial ventures, cultural exchanges , research and training in conflict management at the personal, group, national and international levels.
" As brought out by the old saying "what we see depends mainly on what we look for", what nations tend to see in the activities of other nations is strongly influenced by the official attitude of the nation with respect to the other nation. Three different viewpoints of nations can be categorized as cooperat ive, competitive, or confrontational. In a coope r ative mode the attitude between the nations is one in which the countries may share military and commercial activities in a complementary fashion, presumably to
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Table I Range of Conditions Describing Relationships between Nations 1. 2. 3. 4.
Stable War- Continuous warfare, perhaps measured in years Unstable War- Intermittant warfare, likely to escalate Unstable Peace- No overt war, but threat of war exists Peacekeeping- Potential warring countries kept apart by presence of external military force 5. Peacemaking- Countries involved seeking to improve peaceful relations 6. Peacebuilding- Countries seeking ways in which they can cooperate with one another to improve peaceful conditions 7. Stable Peace- Continuous peace in which the likelihood is very good that existing conditins of peace will continue
the mutual advantage of both nations. Artistic and scientific activities are often done in this fashion. Competitive activities are handled with a mutually agreed-upon set of rules and are such that the consumer tends to benefit from the competition to get the best or the cheapest goods or services. Business or sports are typically handled on a competitive basis. Confrontational mode is one in which each side tries to have superior military or other advantage over the other side so that it can dominate the other country. The choice of whether relations between countries can be viewed as cooperative, competitive, or confrontational is in a way somewhat arbitrary, and it may be strongly influenced by the attitude of the government leaders. In any event, it is quite apparent that, depending on which of these cooperative, competitive, or confrontational attitudes that the government leaders have toward another nation, this may have a strong influence on what can be done in terms of influencing the peace/war relationship between the nations involved. Further, dpending on whether the perceived relationship between countries is seen to be cooperative , competitive, or confrontational, this may have a strong influence on the degree of difficulty with which the nations may be able to move from unstable peace to peacemaking or peacebuilding as an example. Further, the ability to change from some condition of peace or war to another is by no means symmetrical or reversible. Stable war tends to be a social trap, in which it is easy to get into war but very difficult to terminate a war once it has been started. With peace it is quite the other way; it is quite easy to find something to cause one to stop having peace, but it is quite hard to develop a meaningful condition of peace in the first place. Also of importance, it is essential that each of the two countries and the individuals involved should take the time and effort to delineate the conditions for peace and the different activities that are associated with changing from one condition of peace to another. ELEMENTS OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION In applying adaptive control principles to international conflict resolution, it is desirable that there be
an understanding of the elements that can make up the conflict resolution process. As a start in this effort it is worthwhile to have a better mutual understanding of the different approaches that are used in the different cultures and countries involved. Some of these methods are highly humanistic and involve emphasis on social and personal relations. Others are analytical and mathematical and emphasize quantitative and logical results. It is useful for these several different approaches to be understood and the ones appropriate for the particular situation to be employed. Listed below are eight elements of conflict resolution based more or less in order of their use in the solution process. These elements are present in the resolution of a particular conflict and emphasize that each conflict is probably a part of an on-going problem which may be resolved for the present but will appear again later in perhaps a modified form. Keeping in mind the learning-by-doing principle, one no doubt will move on to developing new methods and elements that may be superior to the existing ones. The following is a brief description of the elements of conflict resolution built around the methods of the book "Getting to Yes" by Roger Fisher and William Ury. (Fisher, 1981) 1. Determine Parties and ObjectivesIn any nation there may be different parties or ethnic groups involved which may have different viewpoints and objectives. Furthermore, depending on the duration and severity of the conflict, the basis for resolution may be different. It is desirable to identify the various parties involved and their associated interests. 2. Find the FactsThis fact-finding work element is an important one where technology can be of help in international conflict resolution. Sensing, data-gathering, information handling, simulation, etc. are representative of the uses where technology can be of assistance to the decision-makers. Use of multiple and redundant sources of data is helpful in fact-finding. 3. Identify Alternative OptionsThe resolution of conflicts will probably involve consideration of a finite number of alternative options which must be looked at in a broad manner initially.
Resolving International Conflicts As the poorer alternatives or options are identified or put aside, those options which appear to be attractive can be looked at in greater detail and thoroughness. Again simulation, operations research, decision-making and control technology can be very useful for this work element. 4. Evaluate Alternatives as Perceived by Each PartyIn considering the alternative options, these should be evaluated in terms of the benefits and costs to each of the parties involved. Hopefully, alternatives which provide win-win solutions -- at least to some degree for each of the parties involved can be found. This activity may involve some of the same technologies as the preceding elements, but the social, political, and other skills required may be of greater significance than the purely technical ones.
5. Negotiate the AgreementsAlthough the alternative options considered initially may have yielded results that appeared to be satisfactory, the actual conditions that may be acceptable for each of the parties involved may require some changes in form, substance, timimg or degree from the originally acceptable conditions. Statements to the proper degree of formality should be drawn up and agreed upon. 6. Carry Out and Monitor the AgreementOnce the agreements have been reached and the resolutions of conflict processes begin to occur, an effort should be made to see that the agreed-upon procedures are carried out according to plan. The technologies involved here are of the project management sort for which the required hardware and software are generally available. 7. Terminate the ConflictHopefully, the preceding steps can be carried out in such a way that the conflict can be considered to be terminated. Actually. it may be necessary to start the process over again with a repeat of the methods of the conflict resolution process described above. 8. Review Methodological AspectsIf the conflict cannot be considered as having been success fully resolved, then it may be necessary to use new methods, new people, or -- in general -- a fresh approach to bringing about a successful resolution of the conflict. As one reviews the eight elements of the conflict resolution process, it would appear that emphasis is on the management of conflict and the use of technology tends to be in the fashion of a management information system. Nevertheless, the structure, organization, and effectiveness of such technological contribution to management can be very helpful in arriving at useful results in a more satisfactory manner. Further, such a well-organized procedure may be helpful in establishing an efficient data base upon which future solutions may be better than those of the past.
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It should be emphasized that the international conflict resolution process described above is one which is a continuous effort involving regular meetings of the people and organizational representatives. At such meetings there is a chance to identify any misunderstandings and there are opportunities to modify the procedures if this is necessary to continue to achieve satisfactory solutions to the problem being resolved. POTENTIAL AREAS FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT As a result of earlier studies as well as current ones of potential areas for international conflict requiring resolution, many causes for conflict arising have been identified. Table 2 lists some of the more likely areas that might well serve as a starting point for some sort of joint review committees __ such as the Standing Consultative Commission (SCC) of the SALT I Treaty -to be established with bilateral participation to identify current concerns for handling existing or potential conflicts. These joint review committees could also be compared more nearly in function with a Federal Aviation Agency (FAA), in each of the areas in which they have responsibility, for providing advice and recommendations to insure that safety in air transportation is maintained -carrying through from design, manufacture, to operation. It should be recognized that each pair of countries at any particular time will not necessarily have all the major possible causes of conflict as critical items so that there would be a need to identify those causes of conflict that are worthy of special attention at the present. However, for each of the causes for conflict considered to be needing resolution, such questions as those listed below should be asked in the sense of a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) for a systems analysis reliability study. 1. What could be the likely effects caused by this cause for conflict? 2. How can this cause for conflict be detected so that one can verify what seems to be happening? 3. What can be done by whom to avoid having this become a cause for conflict? 4. What reasonable actions can be taken by whom to reduce greatly the likelihood of conflict. 5. What course of action is required to implement the actions stated above to reduce the likelihood of conflict? What are the costs to whom? What are the benefits to whom? The establishment of a high level organization in each nation involved to work out a Peace Plan to carry out this preventive conflict resolution idea appears to be worthy of further study. Such a study could be set in motion through such organizations as the US Institute of Peace or the State Department with the assistance of such organizations as the National Academy of Science and the National Academy of Engineering. In other countries there are, no doubt, other organizations for which the role of
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Table 2 Major Possible Causes for War among Nations 1. Geographic * Boundary Disputes * Invasions 2 . Religious * Persecution 'I";>
Discrimination
Value Clashes 3. Economic * Dumping of Goods * Price Barriers * Monopoly Practices * Trade Embargoes 4 . Environmental * Acid Rain * River Pollution ,~ Standards 5. Raw Naterials * Pricin g * Nonopoly Practices * Nat ural Resources 6 . Political ,~ Human Rights ,~ Nin orities .* Oppression * Person a l Gain If Ideology 7. ~1i lit a r y * Agg r essio n * Puppet Governments * Blackmail w Covert Activities 8. Other -~ Power ,~- Personalities ~-
establishing the joint revi ew commit t ee function described above would be appropriate and could be initiated .
ADAPTIVE CONTRO L FEATURES In considering the decision-making and control involved in guiding a country, it has been implied that th e s t ate of the nations involved has been that of the normal conditions for the countries being considered. Experience with a number of large-scale systems s uch as e lectric power networks, air tran spo rt, or large-scale industrial processe s has show n th a t there may be at least three different states for a system for which different decision-making and control logic must be considered: a) norm a l, b) alert, and c) emergency .( Chestnut , 1983) (Chestnut, 19 86a) The normal state corresponds to the conditions of the system for which the disturbances are within nor ma l limits, the equipment is operati n g satisfac t orily , and in gene r al there are "no surprises" from the expected satisfactory operation . The alert state refers to such conditions that things are not normal , but they are not sufficiently abnormal that it is reasonable to expect that they can be brought back to normal without an emerge ncy occurring . Under the alert state the disturbances to the systems may exceed the normal limits for these disturbances, some equipme nt may not be operable or available for use, or some other uncertainties may exist such that the
system can be considered abnormal but not s uffi ciently abnormal as to be in an emergency. The emergency state refers to abnormal conditions for the sys tems and/o r its environment such that the system is in real danger of bein g able to s urvive. It is quite apparent that, depending on the state that the system is judged to be in, the sort of control action to be employed may be quite different. The basis for decision-making and control under each of these three states may be quite different and should be clearly under stood. Conditions, either internal to the system or external from other systems than thi s one , will influence whether the normal, ale rt, or emergency states will exist for the country at each time period. Thus the decision-making and control process can be thought of as being an adaptive control which is made up of two parts . The first part measures or senses the internal and external conditions to determine the state which the nation is in. The second part determines what are the appropriate actions or activities for the sys t em based on th e particular present conditions of the system and the appropriate state of the system as determined by the first part. Figure 3 illu strates this adaptive control application . The national processes shown o n the upper right have th eir actual national conditions or activities, as well as the external system influences, measured and the data processed. The decision-making and control block analyzes this system
Rcsoh-ing Intcrnational Conflicts data and decides whether the system state is normal, alert, or emergency. Depending on the system state which has been established and the measured conditions as determined from the data, the normal, alert, or emergency control block logic is used to provide inputs to the national processes which are influenced by this closed-loop operation. In considering the adaptive control aspects shown in Figure 3 -- and in particular the second part in which the appropriate control action is determined for the state that has been estimated it is highly important to include the added dimension of the attitude or perception aspect of what the control action should be. As noted earlier in the matter of international activities there may be different attitudes which s~me groups of people in various countries have in their approach to international relations. These attitudes may be the result of their basic approach to life that people have because of their reli~ion, educat~on, or family upbringing; suff~ce to say d~fferences in attitudes often can be found to exist. .
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a simplistic sense there may be three different attitudes or perceptions noted earlier of how international relations can best be carried out: confrontation, competition, or cooperation. Thus, for example, there are persons in any country who feel that they cannot trust anybody in another country and therefore the way to have stability and peace is to confront other nations with so much strength that no other country will dare to challenge their country. ~dent~f~ed
A second approach to be found in most countries is that of the traders or businessmen who are willing and able to get along in a competitive fashion and do business with like-minded people in other countries. They establish rules of competitive behavior and monitor and obey the rules within acceptable limits. Still a third approach is taken by those people who believe in cooperation with people of other countries. These people not only trade with people in other countries but their behavior is essentially the same with people in other countries as it is with people in their own country. Needless to say, there are several levels or degrees of cooperation. It is quite evident that this attitude and perception aspect of the adaptive control that is possible between nations represents a broader aspect of control and man-machine relationships than is conventionally encountered in most control systems. There are good reasons why there should be increased effort to understand the possibilities and opportunities that may be realized in such a control. One way of exploring the possibilities for such an adaptive control system is to use computer simulation techniques for experimenting with various combinations of scenarios, national attitudes and perceptions. (Siegmann, 1985) All this would be part of a learning process that could use the principles of expert systems for human beings to learn and become more
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expert in the process of improving international stability and resolving international conflicts. INCENTIVES AND MOTIVATIONS Realistically one must recognize that in times past the activities of wars have provided a number of benefits to the successful warring nations. In addition to acquiring tangible gains such as territory and wealth, the conquering country also acquired addititional servant power that could be used for human labor and services. Further, the process of going to war often provided to the individuals involved adventure and opportunities for personal gain and excitement that were not to be found or allowed in normal life. For some young people the experience of being a part of a large and successful undertaking was attractive and desirable. And in an economic sense, war and preparation for war were considered to be "good for business" and helped to provide a measure of full employment. In the present and increasingly in the future, the destruction of war can bankrupt a country whether it "wins or loses" and for many countries there is already a surplus of labor already to the point where huge labor surpluses exist. Modern war is so technically oriented that the industries necessary to build a capable war nation could probably be more useful to the country if applied to meet the country's civilian needs. Japan and West Germany are examples of industrial nations that lost their last military efforts but have been successful in peacetime industry. In the process of downgrading the importance of solving international conflicts by military means which could result from an increased use of non-military ways for resolving international conflicts, it is important to recognize the need for and provide incentives and motivations for peaceful solutions to these conflicts. Clearly the preservation of our society from severe destruction is a powerful incentive for working for peaceful ways of international conflict resolution. In addition, competitive sports events, national and international can provide public excitement and personai gain for the successful participants. Competitive financial activities, such as transnational cnrporations, carry out enterprises that can be financially rewarding and can provide more goods and services for consumers on a worldwide basis. The fact that there has been a period of more than 40 years since World War 11 in which there has not been war between the major industrialized powers provides evidence that skillful national leadership can manage to maintain peaceful relations if they have the desire to do so. Special incentive programs could be offered government and military leaders for the maintenance of peace as a form of added motivations if this is judged to be necessary. In brief, the provision of
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incentives and motivation for the peaceful resolution of international conflicts must be given added attention to make non-military resolution of conflicts more attractive. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The processes of resolving international conflicts can be looked upon as a multiplicity of activities that are capable of being controlled in the sense of an expert system -- namely, a system of hardware and software requiring human judgment for control. Since it is inevitable that there be international conflicts, ways must be found to identify and resolve such conflicts before they get to the point where the solution by military means is considered to be essential. Through the use of improved understanding of the various processes taking place within a country (intranational) and between countries (international), it is possible to represent to a satisfactory degree the man-machine system that is a nation with its interactions with other nations. The decision-making and control portion of the international conflict resolution system can be made to be one that lends itself to the use of adaptive control. This adaptive control should be responsive to the normal, alert, and emergency states that the system may encounter, as well as the basic human perceptions of cooperation, competition, and confrontation which strongly influence decision-making. The threat of nuclear destruction of present day civilization and the worldwide expenditure of one trillion US dollars annually provide motivation and incentives for an active worldwide effort for applying adaptive control to the resolution of international conflicts. The opportunity to work on this problem may not last indefinitely, and there may be no time better than now to step-up our efforts on this endeavor. REFERENCES Chestnut, H. (1965) Systems Engineering Tools. John Wiley, New York Chestnut, H. (1983) A systematic approach to improving international stability, a closed-loop learning process, ASEE Conference Proceedings , pp 923-29 Chestnut, H. (1984a) The use of systematic techniques to improve international stability, Proceedings of the 1983 IFAC Workshop, Pergamon Press, Oxford England, pp 87-92 Chestnut, H. (1984b) Characteristics of a cooperative security systems, IEEE Technology and Society Magazine June 84, pp 12-19 Chestnut, H. (1985a) Cooperative security among nations, Society for General Systems Research Annual Proceedings pp 1024-33
Chestnut, H. (1985b) Reference models of nations for cybernetic understanding. IEEE SMC Annual Proceedings, pp 48389. Chestnut, H. (1986a) Use of closed loop adaptive control for international conflict resolution, IEEE SMC Annual Proceedings, pp Chestnut, H. (19860) Applications of control principles to international relations, IEEE Control Systems Magazine, Vol.6 No.6 pp 13-14 Clark, J. and Cole, S.(1975) Global Simulation Models, J. Wiley De Greene, K. (1985) International stability and policy related thinking about equilibrium, complexity and structural change. SGSR 1985 Annual Proceedings, pp 1051-60 Falk, R. and Mendlowitz, S. Ed. (1966) Th. Strategy of World Order, Institute for World Order Fisher, R. and Ury, W. (1981) Getting to Yes, Houghton Mifflin, Boston Fogg, R. (1985) Dealing with conflict, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp 330-58 Galtung, J. (1975) Essays on Peace Research, Vol 11 Christian Ejlers , Copenhagen, Denmark Glossop, R. (1983) Confronting War, Mc Farland and Co. Jefferson, NC Guetzkow, H. and Valdes, J.J.(1981) Simulated International Processes, Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, CA Haimes, Y. Y. Ed. (1982) Large Scale Systems, North Holland Publishing Co. Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Kile, F. (1986) Social values and active peace, Proceedings of the IFAC Workshop, Cleveland OH June 3-5, To b. published Pergamon 1987. Meadows, D.; Richardson, J. and Bruchmann, G.(1982), Groping in the Dark, J. Wiley, New York Powers, T. (1985) Is there a way out? Nuclear strategy and the plausibility of hope. Harpers, June pp 35-47 Reddy, S.D. and others (1983) Knowledgebased expert systems for engineering applications, IEEE SMC Proceedings, Vol I Conference SMC pp364-68. Siegmann, H. (1985) Recent developments il world modeling, International Institute for Comparative Social Research, W. Berlin, FRG Taylor, A.J. (1978) How Wars Begin, Antheneum, New York Woito, R. (1982), To End War, A New Approach to International Conflict, The Pilgrim Press, Wright, Q. (1964) A Study of War, The University of Chicago, Chicago 11
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Resolving I nternational Conflicts
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APPLYING ADAPTIVE CONTROL PRINCIPLES TO RESOLVING INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS H. Chestnut SH' llS FOllllda/ioll illl., 1226 H'a llrrlI Pla c(', SCil(,lIfc/ady. Nr 12308. USA
Abstract. The danger of nuclear war represents a real and catastrophic threat to modern civilization. A possible way for reducing such a threat is to develop non-military means of international conflict resolution to take advantage of improved information handling capabilities to facilitate decision-making and control. Use should be made of adaptive control principles which recogn1ze the possibility of cooperative, competitive, and confrontational perceptions of opposing nations as well as the possible normal, alert, and emergency st~tes of a cooperative security system. Better use should be made of existing conflict resolution means, as well as ?f the. successes of technical cooperation between people 1n nat10ns of different ideologies and/or different forms of government. Major incentives and motivations exist for greatly increased efforts toward developing expert systems for helping to facilitate better means for resolving international conflicts. Keywords. Adaptive control; expert systems; international conflict resolution; normal, alert, and emergency states; nuclear war; international stability; cooperat1ve security system; failure modes and effects analysis; conflict resolution methods; global modeling.
the benefits of advanced technology to be made available to the people of these nations. The recognition that the relationships between nations can change with time, ranging from various conditions of peace to various conditions of war, should make it possible to develop some sort of adaptive control means for decision-making that will endeavor to bias the relationship between countries in the direction of more peaceful conditions over time (Chestnut 1986a).
INTRODUCTION A need exists for ways of preventing nuclear war that could threaten the end of the present world civilization. Although most world leaders agree that there would be no winner in a present-day nuclear war, there is considerable concern that some minor conflict between nations might escalate into a full-scale nuclear war among major nuclear powers (Powers-1985). In an effort to improve international stability, a continuing study is underway to seek ways to use technology to improve the means for resolving international conflicts -- in particular, before these international conflicts reach the condition of war between major world powers (Chestnut 1986a). This report addresses the subject of ways of applying adaptive control principles to resolving international conflicts.
Recent accidents, such as those caused by severe chemical spills, atomic power plant malfunctions, and space vehicle explosions, have indicated some of the severe consequences that can happen to systems that were designed to be cooperative and functionally beneficial. It should be quite evident that, if modern industrialized nations were to attack each other deliberately in even a non-nuclear war, the devastation that could be caused would be so great that the recovery period might last a decade or longer.
There is a basic need for national security that can provide a safe environment in which the technically advanced systems that are in existence, as well as those being built, can be used effectively to help the people of these nations to realize the benefits that are possible with the present-day high technology. Industrialized capitalist, socialist, as well as various other national economic systems all require a peaceful environment, in terms of the relationships between these countries, for
There appear to be significant advantages to be gained from developing non-military means for international conflict resolution. Increased efforts at developing alternative means for resolving international conflicts using non-military solutions should be sought. These alternative means should permit, in an adaptive sense, a range of leadership
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responses in resolving international conflicts - especially those responses that will take advantage of times of peace to use peacemaking and peace building methods for creating better opportunities for developing more peaceful relationships between the countries involved. An information system is needed that will enable the nations' leadership to be aware of potential causes for conflicts as well as of possible methods for resolving such conflicts without resorting to war. OVERVIEW The principles of closed loop control have in many cases enabled people to obtain far more desirable performance from man-machine systems than when such principles as those of closed loop feedback were not employed. These closed loop principles involve (1) providing a reference signal to a process, (2) comparing that reference with the measured performance of the process, and (3) using that difference to provide a basis for control of the decision-making process. In the case we are considering here, the reference can refer to the objective of resolving international conflicts without resorting to military force. (Chestnut, 1986b) Adaptive control principles recognize that a system may have many different parts or conditions of operation and that the reference or desired cperation for the system may change with time or other conditions of system operation. An adaptive control is one which determines what are the present or other measured or estimated conditions of the system and which alters either its reference or its method of control to accommodate to those present and estimated future conditions. "An adaptive control changes the control parameters or the control response in accord with other changes in the system to improve overall system perfpormance. The objective of an adaptive control system is to have the control self-adjust or self-optimize the system performance in the light of changing system conditions." (Chestnut, 1965) Although control principles are not customarily associated with international relations, there may be some significant advantages in seeing how international relations may benefit by suitable use of adaptive control concepts and methods. In particular, emphasis can and should be placed on recognizing that the characteristics of people and countries can and do change with time- over short (days), medium (weeks and months), and long (years and decades) time periods. In many cases the control and systems engineers have designed, built, and operated the systems that are essential for the nation's people to live the way that they do. These control people may have considerable knowledge and awareness of the changes that are possible and desirable. Likewise politicians, business people, military people and others should be aware that the nature of the relationships between nations can and should be flexible and adaptable so as to reduce the likelihood of international conflict and war.
In considering the reasons for conflict occurring between nations, it is worthwhile to keep in mind that there is a large number of major causes for wars among nations that have been identified from past conflicts. Many previous wars have been analyzed and observations and conclusions have been drawn indicating the apparent causes, reasons, and contributing factors leading to war. (Galtung, 1975) (Glossop, 1982) (Taylor, 1978) (Woito, 1982) (Wright, 1964) Obvious observations are that there are many different causes for war and that any group of people charged with trying to avoid future wars must be looking for several different categories of possible causes. Whereas the communication and transportation means of the past were very much more limited than they are today, people now have much better access to finding out on a short time basis what appear to be the facts with which the evaluation and conflict resolution processes can be started and carried forth. Furthermore, there has been a great deal of work on such information systems as those concerned with expert systems and artificial intelligence that help in the trouble-shooting of large technical and physical systems. It would be of interest to have more of that skill applied to the international conflict resolution efforts. (Reddy, 1983) A challenge to the systems and control engineers and scientists is to work with people who are familiar with the existing and possible national systems and their potentiality for instability and conflict. An additional challenge is to apply adaptive control principles to develop, design, and operate national systems that can provide more peaceful ways for resolving international conflicts. During the learning process of developing new and improved controlled systems, the overriding needs have been those of providing stable systems operation (De Greene, 1985) and the ability to understand and steer the systems being directed onto desirable paths and trajectories. In thinking of the importance of providing some greater measure of stability to the highly technological world of nations in which we live, it has often occurred to some people that more effort could be spent in a worthwhile fashion if these control efforts were devoted to ways of reducing the likelihood of wars occurring, rather that focussing their efforts primarily on how to win a war when the armed conflict breaks out. (Powers, 1985)
This paper attempts to summarize some of the work that has taken place in the past six years and more by control engineers and scientists, working with political scientists, social scientists, economists, peace researchers, and others, to describe ways in which international conflicts can be resolved before they become critical to the point where military solutions appear to be a more satisfactory method for solution. (Chestnut, 1984a) (Kile, 1986)
Resolving International Conflicts
BASIC ASSUMPTIONS In defining a system such as an information system for helping to resolve international conflicts, it is necessary to describe the basic underlying assumptions that are to be included in the system that is to be developed. Depending on the nature of these assumptions, the subsequent international conflict resolution system that results may be different. Although different designers may start with different assumptions, for the purposes of this paper, a set of typical assumptions will be set forth to provide an indication of how different assumptions may exist and how the presence of such basic assumptions can influence the international conflict resolution process. 1. International System is made up of sovereign states. Each nation is assumed to be looking after its own interests as far as national security is concerned, although in some instances a country is willing to be associated with one or more other countries in some sort of protective alliance. For the present most countries are willing to join the United Nations, but they are not willing to assign the responsibility for their national security to some international police force. Thus, each country is looking after its own interests as perceived by its governing bodies or leaders. The nature of the relationship between any pair of countries can range through a number of conditions from stable peace through several degrees of less peaceful existence to a condition of unstable peace, to a less peaceful condition of unstable war, that may lead to a condition of sustained and continuous conflict that can be called stable war. Depending on the current peace/war conflict condition that exists between two nations, the procedure for resolving conflicts between them may differ. In other than military matters the sovereign states may be willing to enter into trade or banking agreements in which a fair measure of trust may be demonstrated despite the existence of national sovereignty interests. 2. International Conflicts are Inevitable The advent of greater interdependence within nations as well as between nations has heightened the likelihood of conflicts since people with different needs and interests share common facilities and activities. Although efforts in the past have often tried to encourage people to live in such a way that there would be no conflict between people or nations, the assumption that is made here is that conflicts between countries will exist and peaceful means for resolving them must be sought and developed. In particular, groups of experts in the particular fields in which the conflicts arise will be asked to seek out solutions acceptable to both nations involved. 3. There are Organized Procedures for Resolving Conflicts Within each nation there are one or more ways for resolving conflicts that are used to settle disputes. Although there
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may be drawbacks to each of the methods involved, in general all of the methods employed try not to use military force as the basis for conflict resolution within a nation. In the system for resolving international conflicts it is also desirable to establish international conflict resolution means that are based on ways that do not require military force. (Fogg, 1985) It is important in these methods of conflict resolution that there be an awareness of the perceived needs and values not only of the nation of the decision-maker, but also the needs for the other nations involved. (Kile, 1986) Further, a knowledge of the conflict resolution procedures of the nations involved is highly desirable and importan t. (Fisher, 1981) As an example of steps useful in international conflict resolution, consider the following: (1) Determine Parties and Objectives, (2) Find the Facts, (3) Identify Alternative Options, (4) Evaluate Alternatives as Perceived by Each Party, (5) Negotiate the Agreements, (6) Carry Out and Monitor the Agreement, (7) Terminate the Conflict, and (8) Review the Methodological Aspects. Steps such as these, or some procedures similar to them, should be established and agreed upon in times of normal relations when the procedures are not needed, so that they will be available when they are needed. (Chestnut, 1986a) 4.Potential Areas for Conflict Needing Resolution can be Identified. In order to make progress in efforts toward successful conflict resolution, it is desirable to identify potential areas where conflicts might arise, to establish groups from the two or more nations involved, and to assign to these groups the responsibility for reducing the likelihood of conflict in their assigned category. Thus, the basis for conflict will be considered in the light of what is happening in several categories, not simply on what is happening in any single category. Each category identified should be capable of being monitored, explored, and understood in such a way that successful solutions may be arrived at. These categories can be identified in terms of nat~onal sectors as used by each nation, or 1n terms of specific topics such as food, housing, water, energy, boundaries, etc. Even though the initial choice of these categories may not prove particularly useful, these choices should form the basis for a subsequent improved selection. 5. Measurement Means and Criteria for Monitoring can be Found. Of particular significance in the matter of international conflict resolution is the matter of whether the parties involved consider the conditions to be normal, alert, or emergency vis-a-vis the other country. Depending on this perception by each of parties of the actions of the other country, the other party will see what should be its
H. Chestnut appropriate action. If necessary, it will be required to look at the problem in more detail and to establish a better base of information. 6. Various Possible Alternative Actions can be Explored. Through the use of models, simulations, discussions with knowledgeable experts from both the nations involved, as well as with third-party experts, it should be possible to get various impressions of what may be the outcome of possible alternative actions. It may not be necessary to get precise information for the future, but it is often sufficient to learn what are thought to be the likely possibilities. Much work has been done on national and global models, and there seems to be an increasing confidence that such models can be useful in general, even thought they may not be precise in detail. (Clark, 1975) (Falk, 1966) (Guetzkow, 1981) (Meadows, 1982) 7. Incentives and Motivations for Peace can be Developed. In each of the countries involved the people responsible for the decision-making that causes a country to go to war can be provided with financial incentives associated with keeping a country out of war, with honors or prestige of a patriotic nature, or with political rewards that may have particular appeal to the persons responsible for the peacemaking efforts. The Nobel Peace Prize is an example of one form of incentive. Recognition at various levels of duty could also be designed and awarded for appropriate accomplishments. With the huge amounts of money being spent for arming for war, there are potential savings to be made that could loom large to persons who contribute to lowering somewhat the expenditures for the military. Motivation for accomplishment of progress for peace must be possible. CONFLICTING NATIONS AS PART OF AN INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM Although nations tend to be considered in terms of their individual internal needs and accomplishments, in reality they are embedded in an international system in which outputs of one nation can and do impact as part of the environment or disturbances of other nations. It is important that nations be viewed both as separate systems and as subsystems of a higher level international system. (Haimes, 1982) It is worthwhile to note that some of the interactions of one nation on another take the form of information or perceptions which are difficult to measure but which nevertheless can have a significant influence on the manner of behavior of one nation on another. As will be noted below, the relationships between nations as they influence conflict not only are functions of the perceived conditions of peace/war between the nations but also are functions of the cooperative, competitive, or confrontational attitude of the nations toward one another. Further, the current status of the relations between countries,
whether this status be considered to be normal, alert, or emergency, is also an important factor in establishing the appropriate actions to be taken in the process of resolving conflicts between nations. It would appear clear that there is an opportunity here for a decision-making and control rationale which should be adaptive and responsive to the nature of the conditions of peace/war which exist between the nations. In applying adaptive control principles to resolving international conflicts it will be advantageous to change the perception of the leadership and direction of the nation from that of an open-loop response of reacting to unstabilizing or conflict activities as they occur, to a closed-loop situation in which possible causes of conflict can be identified and their conditions monitored. Based on mutual understanding of the possible causes of conflict and the various ways available for decreasing the likelihood of conflict to occur, an appreciable reduction in the number of conflicts which are allowed to be of more than minor significance should be possible. (Chestnut, 1985b) Further, by having local, regional, and even lower levels of international conflict resolution available for settling such international disputes, there would be more chances to find ways for settling the disputes that can not be settled at the lower levels. All international conflicts need not have world attention in their initial stages. As a useful step in this direction, means should be established to develop generic cooperative security systems to encourage the nations involved to use peaceful means for resolving their differences. (Chestnut, 1984b) Block Diagram of a Single Nation Figure 1 shows a simplified block diagram for a single nation in which the accomplishments of the nation are the outputs of the national processes. These outputs are measured and have data gathered on them to provide perceptions of what is happening in the country. The perceptions are compared to the expectations of the country. The discrepancies between the national expectations and the perceptions represent inputs to a decision-making and control process which produces outputs of actions that should modify the national processes to bring them into closer correspondence with the national expectations and aspirations. (Chestnut, 1986b) It will be noted that the national processes have natural and man-made disturbances that may upset the national processes from their anticipated values. Likewise there may be perceived external disturbances which may influence decision-making and control and cause them to function in other than the best fashion. Thus, although the expectation-accomplishment loop appears to be quite controllable, enough uncertainty and delay exist in some of the national processes that it is by no means certain that control of the national processes can be readily realized in a stable fashion.
Resohing Int ernational Conllicts At the next higher level of complexity the expectations of the nation are themselves an input from an understanding and comprehension process. This process itself has inputs from information derived from basic knowledge and understanding, from data gathering and measurements from this and other nations, as well as from disturbances. From this outer loop of information it is possible to provide still other bases for changes to the national processes which can cause these processes, over time, to behave in ways different than would be the case if they were operated without these external inputs from other countries. Interaction of Nations with Transfer of Goods and Services The preceding material has emphasized a single nation in which the influence of other nations was considered as disturbances to the nation being studied. Shown in Figure 2 are the interactions of two nations, A and B, in which the transfer of goods, services , funds are indicated. Each nation could have been represented in more detail in the fashion of Figure 1 if it were so desired. Although not described specifically, needless to say, the transfer of people may well be included in some of the transfer processes. No coupling between the national decision-makers for the two countries shown is indicated corresponding more to a condition of confrontation perhaps than one of cooperation. It is of interest to note the key role of the national decision-makers in Nations A and B in that they provide the reference signals to their respective nation's sectors, inputs which in turn establish the goals and objectives for the various sectors of these nations. At present, there has been insufficient emphasis by the national leaders to implement seriously tangible ways in which international conflicts can be systematically identified and organized ways established for achieving peaceful solutions to these conflicts. Actually, in a number of specialized fields the world can and does act as a single large-scale international information system for exchanging information. For example, the field of air traffic control has developed on an international basis, and the World Health Organization also operates on a global scale of effort. The International Telecommunications Union is another organization that is designed to perform on a worldwide set of common agreements . Likewise, organizations like the International Federation of Automatic Control (IFAC) and the International Federation of Information Processing (IFIP) bring people together to share their skills for the mutual benefit of the persons involved and their organizations and nations. (Haimes, 1982) For decades now there have been ongoing s tudi es in the field of understanding the interaction of the world's nations on each other. The work of Siegmann on Recent Developments in World Modeling (Siegmann, 19 85) provides a
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comprehensive summary of more than 27 modeling efforts to underst a nd better the internaction of nations on each other. And progress is being made to make some of these global models available on a personal computer for easier use. The opportunity exists for increased cooperation between nations, and ways should be undertaken to develop more means for cooperative activities that can facilitate international conflict resolution. STATUS OF PEACE/WAR RELATIONSHIPS BETlvEEN NATIONS Although the section previous to this one showed the components and activities of a single nation, and of more than one nation, insufficient emphasis was placed on the influence that the range of peace/war relationships can have on the activities of these countries. It is worthwhile to recognize the broad spectrum of relationships that can exist between conditions of peace and conditions of war. Instead of using a very Simpl i stic definition of peace as being the absence of war, let us consider the peace/war relationship to be a more expanded continuum of possibilities ranging from stable war to stable peace as shown in Table 1. Although there are five intermediate peace/war conditions shown in Table 1, and the definition of the various conditions shown there is somewhat sketchy , it is useful to develop in more detail the fact that changes in the peace/war processes at anyone time can shift the condition of the attitudes (or perceptions) of one nation as viewed by the other. (Galtung, 1975) (Chestnut, 1985b) As brought out in the Report of the Second Midwest Conference for the United States Institute of Peace held in Iowa City on May 29-30 , 1986
1. "Peace is not a static condition which, when reached, will continue of it own inertia, a kind of Nirvana on earth; rather it is a way of dealing with conflicts in non-violent ways, a very complex and difficult process , to which there is no end. 2. "P eace is not merely the absence of war, but encompasses a great variety of activities, including commercial ventures, cultural exchanges , research and training in conflict management at the personal, group, national and international levels.
" As brought out by the old saying "what we see depends mainly on what we look for", what nations tend to see in the activities of other nations is strongly influenced by the official attitude of the nation with respect to the other nation. Three different viewpoints of nations can be categorized as cooperat ive, competitive, or confrontational. In a coope r ative mode the attitude between the nations is one in which the countries may share military and commercial activities in a complementary fashion, presumably to
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Table I Range of Conditions Describing Relationships between Nations 1. 2. 3. 4.
Stable War- Continuous warfare, perhaps measured in years Unstable War- Intermittant warfare, likely to escalate Unstable Peace- No overt war, but threat of war exists Peacekeeping- Potential warring countries kept apart by presence of external military force 5. Peacemaking- Countries involved seeking to improve peaceful relations 6. Peacebuilding- Countries seeking ways in which they can cooperate with one another to improve peaceful conditions 7. Stable Peace- Continuous peace in which the likelihood is very good that existing conditins of peace will continue
the mutual advantage of both nations. Artistic and scientific activities are often done in this fashion. Competitive activities are handled with a mutually agreed-upon set of rules and are such that the consumer tends to benefit from the competition to get the best or the cheapest goods or services. Business or sports are typically handled on a competitive basis. Confrontational mode is one in which each side tries to have superior military or other advantage over the other side so that it can dominate the other country. The choice of whether relations between countries can be viewed as cooperative, competitive, or confrontational is in a way somewhat arbitrary, and it may be strongly influenced by the attitude of the government leaders. In any event, it is quite apparent that, depending on which of these cooperative, competitive, or confrontational attitudes that the government leaders have toward another nation, this may have a strong influence on what can be done in terms of influencing the peace/war relationship between the nations involved. Further, dpending on whether the perceived relationship between countries is seen to be cooperative , competitive, or confrontational, this may have a strong influence on the degree of difficulty with which the nations may be able to move from unstable peace to peacemaking or peacebuilding as an example. Further, the ability to change from some condition of peace or war to another is by no means symmetrical or reversible. Stable war tends to be a social trap, in which it is easy to get into war but very difficult to terminate a war once it has been started. With peace it is quite the other way; it is quite easy to find something to cause one to stop having peace, but it is quite hard to develop a meaningful condition of peace in the first place. Also of importance, it is essential that each of the two countries and the individuals involved should take the time and effort to delineate the conditions for peace and the different activities that are associated with changing from one condition of peace to another. ELEMENTS OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION In applying adaptive control principles to international conflict resolution, it is desirable that there be
an understanding of the elements that can make up the conflict resolution process. As a start in this effort it is worthwhile to have a better mutual understanding of the different approaches that are used in the different cultures and countries involved. Some of these methods are highly humanistic and involve emphasis on social and personal relations. Others are analytical and mathematical and emphasize quantitative and logical results. It is useful for these several different approaches to be understood and the ones appropriate for the particular situation to be employed. Listed below are eight elements of conflict resolution based more or less in order of their use in the solution process. These elements are present in the resolution of a particular conflict and emphasize that each conflict is probably a part of an on-going problem which may be resolved for the present but will appear again later in perhaps a modified form. Keeping in mind the learning-by-doing principle, one no doubt will move on to developing new methods and elements that may be superior to the existing ones. The following is a brief description of the elements of conflict resolution built around the methods of the book "Getting to Yes" by Roger Fisher and William Ury. (Fisher, 1981) 1. Determine Parties and ObjectivesIn any nation there may be different parties or ethnic groups involved which may have different viewpoints and objectives. Furthermore, depending on the duration and severity of the conflict, the basis for resolution may be different. It is desirable to identify the various parties involved and their associated interests. 2. Find the FactsThis fact-finding work element is an important one where technology can be of help in international conflict resolution. Sensing, data-gathering, information handling, simulation, etc. are representative of the uses where technology can be of assistance to the decision-makers. Use of multiple and redundant sources of data is helpful in fact-finding. 3. Identify Alternative OptionsThe resolution of conflicts will probably involve consideration of a finite number of alternative options which must be looked at in a broad manner initially.
Resolving International Conflicts As the poorer alternatives or options are identified or put aside, those options which appear to be attractive can be looked at in greater detail and thoroughness. Again simulation, operations research, decision-making and control technology can be very useful for this work element. 4. Evaluate Alternatives as Perceived by Each PartyIn considering the alternative options, these should be evaluated in terms of the benefits and costs to each of the parties involved. Hopefully, alternatives which provide win-win solutions -- at least to some degree for each of the parties involved can be found. This activity may involve some of the same technologies as the preceding elements, but the social, political, and other skills required may be of greater significance than the purely technical ones.
5. Negotiate the AgreementsAlthough the alternative options considered initially may have yielded results that appeared to be satisfactory, the actual conditions that may be acceptable for each of the parties involved may require some changes in form, substance, timimg or degree from the originally acceptable conditions. Statements to the proper degree of formality should be drawn up and agreed upon. 6. Carry Out and Monitor the AgreementOnce the agreements have been reached and the resolutions of conflict processes begin to occur, an effort should be made to see that the agreed-upon procedures are carried out according to plan. The technologies involved here are of the project management sort for which the required hardware and software are generally available. 7. Terminate the ConflictHopefully, the preceding steps can be carried out in such a way that the conflict can be considered to be terminated. Actually. it may be necessary to start the process over again with a repeat of the methods of the conflict resolution process described above. 8. Review Methodological AspectsIf the conflict cannot be considered as having been success fully resolved, then it may be necessary to use new methods, new people, or -- in general -- a fresh approach to bringing about a successful resolution of the conflict. As one reviews the eight elements of the conflict resolution process, it would appear that emphasis is on the management of conflict and the use of technology tends to be in the fashion of a management information system. Nevertheless, the structure, organization, and effectiveness of such technological contribution to management can be very helpful in arriving at useful results in a more satisfactory manner. Further, such a well-organized procedure may be helpful in establishing an efficient data base upon which future solutions may be better than those of the past.
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It should be emphasized that the international conflict resolution process described above is one which is a continuous effort involving regular meetings of the people and organizational representatives. At such meetings there is a chance to identify any misunderstandings and there are opportunities to modify the procedures if this is necessary to continue to achieve satisfactory solutions to the problem being resolved. POTENTIAL AREAS FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT As a result of earlier studies as well as current ones of potential areas for international conflict requiring resolution, many causes for conflict arising have been identified. Table 2 lists some of the more likely areas that might well serve as a starting point for some sort of joint review committees __ such as the Standing Consultative Commission (SCC) of the SALT I Treaty -to be established with bilateral participation to identify current concerns for handling existing or potential conflicts. These joint review committees could also be compared more nearly in function with a Federal Aviation Agency (FAA), in each of the areas in which they have responsibility, for providing advice and recommendations to insure that safety in air transportation is maintained -carrying through from design, manufacture, to operation. It should be recognized that each pair of countries at any particular time will not necessarily have all the major possible causes of conflict as critical items so that there would be a need to identify those causes of conflict that are worthy of special attention at the present. However, for each of the causes for conflict considered to be needing resolution, such questions as those listed below should be asked in the sense of a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) for a systems analysis reliability study. 1. What could be the likely effects caused by this cause for conflict? 2. How can this cause for conflict be detected so that one can verify what seems to be happening? 3. What can be done by whom to avoid having this become a cause for conflict? 4. What reasonable actions can be taken by whom to reduce greatly the likelihood of conflict. 5. What course of action is required to implement the actions stated above to reduce the likelihood of conflict? What are the costs to whom? What are the benefits to whom? The establishment of a high level organization in each nation involved to work out a Peace Plan to carry out this preventive conflict resolution idea appears to be worthy of further study. Such a study could be set in motion through such organizations as the US Institute of Peace or the State Department with the assistance of such organizations as the National Academy of Science and the National Academy of Engineering. In other countries there are, no doubt, other organizations for which the role of
H. Chestllllt
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Table 2 Major Possible Causes for War among Nations 1. Geographic * Boundary Disputes * Invasions 2 . Religious * Persecution 'I";>
Discrimination
Value Clashes 3. Economic * Dumping of Goods * Price Barriers * Monopoly Practices * Trade Embargoes 4 . Environmental * Acid Rain * River Pollution ,~ Standards 5. Raw Naterials * Pricin g * Nonopoly Practices * Nat ural Resources 6 . Political ,~ Human Rights ,~ Nin orities .* Oppression * Person a l Gain If Ideology 7. ~1i lit a r y * Agg r essio n * Puppet Governments * Blackmail w Covert Activities 8. Other -~ Power ,~- Personalities ~-
establishing the joint revi ew commit t ee function described above would be appropriate and could be initiated .
ADAPTIVE CONTRO L FEATURES In considering the decision-making and control involved in guiding a country, it has been implied that th e s t ate of the nations involved has been that of the normal conditions for the countries being considered. Experience with a number of large-scale systems s uch as e lectric power networks, air tran spo rt, or large-scale industrial processe s has show n th a t there may be at least three different states for a system for which different decision-making and control logic must be considered: a) norm a l, b) alert, and c) emergency .( Chestnut , 1983) (Chestnut, 19 86a) The normal state corresponds to the conditions of the system for which the disturbances are within nor ma l limits, the equipment is operati n g satisfac t orily , and in gene r al there are "no surprises" from the expected satisfactory operation . The alert state refers to such conditions that things are not normal , but they are not sufficiently abnormal that it is reasonable to expect that they can be brought back to normal without an emerge ncy occurring . Under the alert state the disturbances to the systems may exceed the normal limits for these disturbances, some equipme nt may not be operable or available for use, or some other uncertainties may exist such that the
system can be considered abnormal but not s uffi ciently abnormal as to be in an emergency. The emergency state refers to abnormal conditions for the sys tems and/o r its environment such that the system is in real danger of bein g able to s urvive. It is quite apparent that, depending on the state that the system is judged to be in, the sort of control action to be employed may be quite different. The basis for decision-making and control under each of these three states may be quite different and should be clearly under stood. Conditions, either internal to the system or external from other systems than thi s one , will influence whether the normal, ale rt, or emergency states will exist for the country at each time period. Thus the decision-making and control process can be thought of as being an adaptive control which is made up of two parts . The first part measures or senses the internal and external conditions to determine the state which the nation is in. The second part determines what are the appropriate actions or activities for the sys t em based on th e particular present conditions of the system and the appropriate state of the system as determined by the first part. Figure 3 illu strates this adaptive control application . The national processes shown o n the upper right have th eir actual national conditions or activities, as well as the external system influences, measured and the data processed. The decision-making and control block analyzes this system
Rcsoh-ing Intcrnational Conflicts data and decides whether the system state is normal, alert, or emergency. Depending on the system state which has been established and the measured conditions as determined from the data, the normal, alert, or emergency control block logic is used to provide inputs to the national processes which are influenced by this closed-loop operation. In considering the adaptive control aspects shown in Figure 3 -- and in particular the second part in which the appropriate control action is determined for the state that has been estimated it is highly important to include the added dimension of the attitude or perception aspect of what the control action should be. As noted earlier in the matter of international activities there may be different attitudes which s~me groups of people in various countries have in their approach to international relations. These attitudes may be the result of their basic approach to life that people have because of their reli~ion, educat~on, or family upbringing; suff~ce to say d~fferences in attitudes often can be found to exist. .
I~
a simplistic sense there may be three different attitudes or perceptions noted earlier of how international relations can best be carried out: confrontation, competition, or cooperation. Thus, for example, there are persons in any country who feel that they cannot trust anybody in another country and therefore the way to have stability and peace is to confront other nations with so much strength that no other country will dare to challenge their country. ~dent~f~ed
A second approach to be found in most countries is that of the traders or businessmen who are willing and able to get along in a competitive fashion and do business with like-minded people in other countries. They establish rules of competitive behavior and monitor and obey the rules within acceptable limits. Still a third approach is taken by those people who believe in cooperation with people of other countries. These people not only trade with people in other countries but their behavior is essentially the same with people in other countries as it is with people in their own country. Needless to say, there are several levels or degrees of cooperation. It is quite evident that this attitude and perception aspect of the adaptive control that is possible between nations represents a broader aspect of control and man-machine relationships than is conventionally encountered in most control systems. There are good reasons why there should be increased effort to understand the possibilities and opportunities that may be realized in such a control. One way of exploring the possibilities for such an adaptive control system is to use computer simulation techniques for experimenting with various combinations of scenarios, national attitudes and perceptions. (Siegmann, 1985) All this would be part of a learning process that could use the principles of expert systems for human beings to learn and become more
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expert in the process of improving international stability and resolving international conflicts. INCENTIVES AND MOTIVATIONS Realistically one must recognize that in times past the activities of wars have provided a number of benefits to the successful warring nations. In addition to acquiring tangible gains such as territory and wealth, the conquering country also acquired addititional servant power that could be used for human labor and services. Further, the process of going to war often provided to the individuals involved adventure and opportunities for personal gain and excitement that were not to be found or allowed in normal life. For some young people the experience of being a part of a large and successful undertaking was attractive and desirable. And in an economic sense, war and preparation for war were considered to be "good for business" and helped to provide a measure of full employment. In the present and increasingly in the future, the destruction of war can bankrupt a country whether it "wins or loses" and for many countries there is already a surplus of labor already to the point where huge labor surpluses exist. Modern war is so technically oriented that the industries necessary to build a capable war nation could probably be more useful to the country if applied to meet the country's civilian needs. Japan and West Germany are examples of industrial nations that lost their last military efforts but have been successful in peacetime industry. In the process of downgrading the importance of solving international conflicts by military means which could result from an increased use of non-military ways for resolving international conflicts, it is important to recognize the need for and provide incentives and motivations for peaceful solutions to these conflicts. Clearly the preservation of our society from severe destruction is a powerful incentive for working for peaceful ways of international conflict resolution. In addition, competitive sports events, national and international can provide public excitement and personai gain for the successful participants. Competitive financial activities, such as transnational cnrporations, carry out enterprises that can be financially rewarding and can provide more goods and services for consumers on a worldwide basis. The fact that there has been a period of more than 40 years since World War 11 in which there has not been war between the major industrialized powers provides evidence that skillful national leadership can manage to maintain peaceful relations if they have the desire to do so. Special incentive programs could be offered government and military leaders for the maintenance of peace as a form of added motivations if this is judged to be necessary. In brief, the provision of
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incentives and motivation for the peaceful resolution of international conflicts must be given added attention to make non-military resolution of conflicts more attractive. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The processes of resolving international conflicts can be looked upon as a multiplicity of activities that are capable of being controlled in the sense of an expert system -- namely, a system of hardware and software requiring human judgment for control. Since it is inevitable that there be international conflicts, ways must be found to identify and resolve such conflicts before they get to the point where the solution by military means is considered to be essential. Through the use of improved understanding of the various processes taking place within a country (intranational) and between countries (international), it is possible to represent to a satisfactory degree the man-machine system that is a nation with its interactions with other nations. The decision-making and control portion of the international conflict resolution system can be made to be one that lends itself to the use of adaptive control. This adaptive control should be responsive to the normal, alert, and emergency states that the system may encounter, as well as the basic human perceptions of cooperation, competition, and confrontation which strongly influence decision-making. The threat of nuclear destruction of present day civilization and the worldwide expenditure of one trillion US dollars annually provide motivation and incentives for an active worldwide effort for applying adaptive control to the resolution of international conflicts. The opportunity to work on this problem may not last indefinitely, and there may be no time better than now to step-up our efforts on this endeavor. REFERENCES Chestnut, H. (1965) Systems Engineering Tools. John Wiley, New York Chestnut, H. (1983) A systematic approach to improving international stability, a closed-loop learning process, ASEE Conference Proceedings , pp 923-29 Chestnut, H. (1984a) The use of systematic techniques to improve international stability, Proceedings of the 1983 IFAC Workshop, Pergamon Press, Oxford England, pp 87-92 Chestnut, H. (1984b) Characteristics of a cooperative security systems, IEEE Technology and Society Magazine June 84, pp 12-19 Chestnut, H. (1985a) Cooperative security among nations, Society for General Systems Research Annual Proceedings pp 1024-33
Chestnut, H. (1985b) Reference models of nations for cybernetic understanding. IEEE SMC Annual Proceedings, pp 48389. Chestnut, H. (1986a) Use of closed loop adaptive control for international conflict resolution, IEEE SMC Annual Proceedings, pp Chestnut, H. (19860) Applications of control principles to international relations, IEEE Control Systems Magazine, Vol.6 No.6 pp 13-14 Clark, J. and Cole, S.(1975) Global Simulation Models, J. Wiley De Greene, K. (1985) International stability and policy related thinking about equilibrium, complexity and structural change. SGSR 1985 Annual Proceedings, pp 1051-60 Falk, R. and Mendlowitz, S. Ed. (1966) Th. Strategy of World Order, Institute for World Order Fisher, R. and Ury, W. (1981) Getting to Yes, Houghton Mifflin, Boston Fogg, R. (1985) Dealing with conflict, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp 330-58 Galtung, J. (1975) Essays on Peace Research, Vol 11 Christian Ejlers , Copenhagen, Denmark Glossop, R. (1983) Confronting War, Mc Farland and Co. Jefferson, NC Guetzkow, H. and Valdes, J.J.(1981) Simulated International Processes, Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, CA Haimes, Y. Y. Ed. (1982) Large Scale Systems, North Holland Publishing Co. Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Kile, F. (1986) Social values and active peace, Proceedings of the IFAC Workshop, Cleveland OH June 3-5, To b. published Pergamon 1987. Meadows, D.; Richardson, J. and Bruchmann, G.(1982), Groping in the Dark, J. Wiley, New York Powers, T. (1985) Is there a way out? Nuclear strategy and the plausibility of hope. Harpers, June pp 35-47 Reddy, S.D. and others (1983) Knowledgebased expert systems for engineering applications, IEEE SMC Proceedings, Vol I Conference SMC pp364-68. Siegmann, H. (1985) Recent developments il world modeling, International Institute for Comparative Social Research, W. Berlin, FRG Taylor, A.J. (1978) How Wars Begin, Antheneum, New York Woito, R. (1982), To End War, A New Approach to International Conflict, The Pilgrim Press, Wright, Q. (1964) A Study of War, The University of Chicago, Chicago 11
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Resolving I nternational Conflicts
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