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Arab Spring: will democracy come of age?
Amr Dalsh / Reuters
THIS WEEK institutions and infrastructures of of becoming democracies. developed nations – urbanisation, All of the countries that made the transition when their median higher income, women’s rights and education to name a few – age was greater than 30 are still birth rates tend to drop, and the democracies today. Nine out of 10 countries with a median age less median age goes up (see diagram). All these factors reinforce eachthan 25 slid back into oppressive regimes following revolution. Any other, says Bar-Yam. At the same time, a complex older than 35 and revolutions did societal infrastructure is key for not occur in the first place. The a country to make the transition only other indicator that came from revolutionary chaos to a close to predicting transition newly organised democracy, he success with the same level of accuracy was wealth per capita. “Oppressive autocracies Cincotta presented his results at with an average population the Population Association of America meeting in San Francisco age of 25 to 35 are likeliest to become democracies” earlier this month. If the pattern holds, Tunisia – says. Under the right conditions, a with a median age of 30 – is the new leadership can be slotted in at Arab Spring country most likely to hold a democracy permanently. the top of existing infrastructure Egypt and Libya have median ages without too much disruption. Trust – of leaders in their people of 25 and 26, respectively, giving –Electioneering in Egypt– them a fighting chance of moving and vice versa – is another key factor, says Jack Goldstone of to democracy in the next few George Mason University in years, according to Cincotta. But Fairfax, Virginia. He points out Syria and Yemen – at 21 and 17, that such mutual trust is less respectively – will be lucky to end up with even partial democracies, likely to manifest in a young population, which tends to be he says. suspicious of government. Why this pattern exists is revolutions would occur, but also What does all this mean for the unclear. Cincotta himself admits that it may be some time before Arab Spring countries? According that age is a useful indicator but they make a successful transition not a cause for stable transitions. to Bar-Yam, although its relatively to liberal democracies. low median age suggests Egypt One possible explanation is Cincotta studied revolutions will not immediately move to a that older populations tend between 1972 and 1989, stable democracy, the fact that to be associated with mature, focusing on the age structure it has a well-organised military complex societies, says Yaneer of countries. He found that system means it may do so in Bar-Yam of the New England oppressive autocracies with a future. By contrast, Syria and Complex Systems Institute in median population age between Libya have no such organisation. Cambridge, Massachusetts. As 25 and 35 had the best chances Watch for Algeria and Morocco societies mature and acquire the to change within the coming years, Cincotta says, followed by Growing into into democracy democracy Growing Saudi Arabia and Jordan in the Associeties societiesevolve, evolve,birth birthrates ratestypically typicallydrop dropand andthe thepopulation populationages ages As 2020s. Revolutions are likely in sub-Saharan Africa, where most MATURE YOUNG INTERMEDIATE MATURE YOUNG INTERMEDIATE (Afghanistan) (Egypt) (Germany) (Afghanistan) (Egypt) (Germany) regimes are oppressive and most 100 100 countries’ median age is younger than 20. “But there’s no point MEN WOMEN in talking about transition to MEN WOMEN democracy because fertility there 50 50 is so high,” says Jennifer Sciubba of Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee. Unless birth rates decline, she says, Africa is doomed 00 10 10 10 55 00 55 10 55 00 55 55 00 55 to continuous revolts for decades Percentageof oftotal totalpopulation population(2010) (2010) Percentage to come. n
A YEAR after ousting Hosni Mubarak, Egypt appears poised this week to elect his former minister of foreign affairs, Amr Moussa, as its next president. Many commentators say his presidency will differ little from Mubarak’s, disappointing those who hoped to see a liberal democracy emerge from the youthful uprisings last year. Meanwhile, Yemen elected their ousted leader’s vicepresident on a single-candidate ballot, violence surrounds Libya’s elections and Syrian protests get bloodier by the day. Was the Arab Spring all for naught? The recent turn of events does not surprise demographer Richard Cincotta of the Stimson Center in Washington DC. The fact that the populations of these countries are all very young, he argues, predicted not only that 8 | NewScientist | 19 May 2012
SOURCE: SOURCE:UN UNDESA DESA
Sara Reardon
Age Age
How democracy comes of age
THIS WEEK institutions and infrastructures of of becoming democracies. developed nations – urbanisation, All of the countries that made the transition when their median higher income, women’s rights and education to name a few – age was greater than 30 are still birth rates tend to drop, and the democracies today. Nine out of 10 countries with a median age less median age goes up (see diagram). All these factors reinforce eachthan 25 slid back into oppressive regimes following revolution. Any other, says Bar-Yam. At the same time, a complex older than 35 and revolutions did societal infrastructure is key for not occur in the first place. The a country to make the transition only other indicator that came from revolutionary chaos to a close to predicting transition newly organised democracy, he success with the same level of accuracy was wealth per capita. “Oppressive autocracies Cincotta presented his results at with an average population the Population Association of America meeting in San Francisco age of 25 to 35 are likeliest to become democracies” earlier this month. If the pattern holds, Tunisia – says. Under the right conditions, a with a median age of 30 – is the new leadership can be slotted in at Arab Spring country most likely to hold a democracy permanently. the top of existing infrastructure Egypt and Libya have median ages without too much disruption. Trust – of leaders in their people of 25 and 26, respectively, giving –Electioneering in Egypt– them a fighting chance of moving and vice versa – is another key factor, says Jack Goldstone of to democracy in the next few George Mason University in years, according to Cincotta. But Fairfax, Virginia. He points out Syria and Yemen – at 21 and 17, that such mutual trust is less respectively – will be lucky to end up with even partial democracies, likely to manifest in a young population, which tends to be he says. suspicious of government. Why this pattern exists is revolutions would occur, but also What does all this mean for the unclear. Cincotta himself admits that it may be some time before Arab Spring countries? According that age is a useful indicator but they make a successful transition not a cause for stable transitions. to Bar-Yam, although its relatively to liberal democracies. low median age suggests Egypt One possible explanation is Cincotta studied revolutions will not immediately move to a that older populations tend between 1972 and 1989, stable democracy, the fact that to be associated with mature, focusing on the age structure it has a well-organised military complex societies, says Yaneer of countries. He found that system means it may do so in Bar-Yam of the New England oppressive autocracies with a future. By contrast, Syria and Complex Systems Institute in median population age between Libya have no such organisation. Cambridge, Massachusetts. As 25 and 35 had the best chances Watch for Algeria and Morocco societies mature and acquire the to change within the coming years, Cincotta says, followed by Growing into into democracy democracy Growing Saudi Arabia and Jordan in the Associeties societiesevolve, evolve,birth birthrates ratestypically typicallydrop dropand andthe thepopulation populationages ages As 2020s. Revolutions are likely in sub-Saharan Africa, where most MATURE YOUNG INTERMEDIATE MATURE YOUNG INTERMEDIATE (Afghanistan) (Egypt) (Germany) (Afghanistan) (Egypt) (Germany) regimes are oppressive and most 100 100 countries’ median age is younger than 20. “But there’s no point MEN WOMEN in talking about transition to MEN WOMEN democracy because fertility there 50 50 is so high,” says Jennifer Sciubba of Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee. Unless birth rates decline, she says, Africa is doomed 00 10 10 10 55 00 55 10 55 00 55 55 00 55 to continuous revolts for decades Percentageof oftotal totalpopulation population(2010) (2010) Percentage to come. n
A YEAR after ousting Hosni Mubarak, Egypt appears poised this week to elect his former minister of foreign affairs, Amr Moussa, as its next president. Many commentators say his presidency will differ little from Mubarak’s, disappointing those who hoped to see a liberal democracy emerge from the youthful uprisings last year. Meanwhile, Yemen elected their ousted leader’s vicepresident on a single-candidate ballot, violence surrounds Libya’s elections and Syrian protests get bloodier by the day. Was the Arab Spring all for naught? The recent turn of events does not surprise demographer Richard Cincotta of the Stimson Center in Washington DC. The fact that the populations of these countries are all very young, he argues, predicted not only that 8 | NewScientist | 19 May 2012
SOURCE: SOURCE:UN UNDESA DESA
Sara Reardon
Age Age
How democracy comes of age