Assessing the impact of shift to electronic communication and information dissemination by a professional organization

NORTH- HOLLAND

Assessing the Impact of Shift to Electronic Communication and Information Dissemination by a Professional Organization An Analysis of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) JOSEPH

R. HERKERT

and CHRISTINE

S. N I E L S E N

ABSTRACT Large, decentralized scientific and engineering organizations based in North America and Europe have identified electronic media as a strategic technology for communication and information dissemination to their members and other stakeholders. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), the largest technical society in the world, recognized its increasing dependence on electronic media and commissioned a study to assess the social, organizational, and economic impacts of this shift on its members and other stakeholders. Results of the study are reported herein. The Delphi research method was chosen to gather expert opinion from 30 IEEE members and other stakeholders regarding their predictions of the range and depth of impacts, types of benefits, and undesirable effects. The purpose of this research is to provide a series of recommendations as to how scientific and technical organizations may take full advantage of electronic media technology, while taking actions to avoid the negative consequences of this technological change. © 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.

Introduction T h e r a p i d i n c r e a s e in t h e u s e o f e l e c t r o n i c m e d i a for c o m m u n i c a t i o n a n d i n f o r m a t i o n d i s s e m i n a t i o n r a i s e s i n t e r e s t i n g a n d i m p o r t a n t q u e s t i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e i m p a c t s of t e c h n o l o g y diffusion. T h e social i m p a c t s o f t e c h n o l o g i e s s u c h as e l e c t r o n i c m a i l ( e - m a i l ) a r e o f p a r t i c u l a r i m p o r t a n c e w i t h r e s p e c t to o r g a n i z a t i o n s [1]. A m o n g t h e m a n y o r g a n i z a t i o n s s t r u g g l i n g to k e e p p a c e w i t h s u c h i m p a c t s a r e p r o f e s s i o n a l scientific a n d t e c h n i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s s u c h as t h e I n s t i t u t e o f E l e c t r i c a l a n d E l e c t r o n i c s E n g i n e e r s ( I E E E ) [2]. I n this p a p e r , w e d e s c r i b e t h e I E E E ' s shift to e l e c t r o n i c c o m m u n i c a t i o n a n d i n f o r m a t i o n d i s s e m i n a t i o n a n d p r o v i d e a r e p o r t o n o b s t a c l e s to t h e i n c r e a s e d use o f e l e c t r o n i c m e d i a by the IEEE. JOSEPH R. HERKERT is Assistant Professor of Multidisciplinary Studies in the Division of Multidisciplinary Studies, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina. CHRISTINE S. NIELSEN is Associate Professor of International Business at the Roy E. Crummer Graduate School of Business, Rollins College, Winter Park, Florida. Address reprint requests to Joseph R. Herkert, Division of Multidisciplinary Studies, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27603-7107. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 57, 75-103 (1998) © 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. 655 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10010

0040- 1625/98/$19.00 PII S0040-1625(97)00077-2

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J.R. HERKERT AND C. S. NIELSEN

The Nature of the I E E E and Its Strategic Vision The I E E E in a non-profit corporation, founded in 1884, whose mission is to advance the theory and practice of electrical, electronics, and computer engineering and computer science through sponsorship of technical conferences, local meetings, technical publications, and continuing education programs for its members. Though the largest technical professional society in the world with over 320,000 members, the I E E E is similar in scope and function to other scientific and technical societies such as ASME International (mechanical engineering), the American Society of Civil Engineers, the American Institute of Chemical Engineers, the Association for Computing Machinery, the American Chemical Society, and the American Physical Society. Unlike many of the US-based scientific and technical professional societies, the I E E E is an international organization with members in 147 countries divided into 10 regions. Approximately 75% of the membership, however, is from the United States (Regions 1-6) and Canada (Region 7), with the remaining members residing in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (Region 8), Latin America (Region 9), and the Pacific Rim, Australia, and New Zealand (Region 10). The I E E E is also comprised of 37 technical societies and councils that cover a wide range of electrotechnology fields of interest, organized in 10 technical divisions. The largest technical societies represent the three major branches of electrical and electronic engineering: computers, communications, and power engineering. Smaller societies focus on electrical and electronic engineering applications in fields such as aerospace engineering, biomedical engineering, and consumer electronics; technical specialties such as lasers and electro-optics and electron devices; and the "human environment" such as engineering education and the social implications of technology. The central responsibility of the I E E E is to meet the needs of its members, customers, and other stakeholders in the field of eletrotechnology. In I E E E ' s 1993 strategic plan [3], five strategic goals were identified as a means of fulfilling these obligations in the areas of public responsibility, career enhancement, organizational improvement, globalization, and products/services. Perhaps of most immediate relevance to electronic media is the products and services goal: to move expeditiously to the electronic dissemination of existing I E E E products and services; to identify product-line expansion opportunities to take advantage of electronic media and broaden markets; and to achieve I E E E leadership in the timely generation and dissemination of global standards. However, the shift to electronic media is introduced explicitly in a number of other strategic areas as well. For example, a globalization objective is to transform the I E E E into a distributed, networked, global organization through the use of available technology. Organizational improvement objectives include taking full advantage of opportunities for interactive electronic access to services and using electronic systems to enhance communications among I E E E members, leaders, and staff. Research Purpose: A n Assessment of the IEEE's Shift to Electronic Media Based on the realization that the IEEE's shift to electronic media would have farreaching impacts, the Electronic Products Committee (EPC) of the Products Council of the IEEE Technical Activities Board (TAB) commissioned the research described here. This committee has since become a joint committee of TAB and the Publications Board, a reflection of the growing significance of electronic media in the publishing area. The EPC was concerned with the broad social, organizational, and economic

IMPACT OF ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATIONON IEEE

77

implications of the IEEE's move to electronic communication and dissemination of information. This research was therefore undertaken to create a series of predictions regarding how the IEEE's shift to increased reliance on the electronic media technologies outlined below will affect the lives of IEE stakeholders in terms of the range and depth of impacts, types of benefits, and undesirable effects. Based on this forecast, a series of recommendations are made as to how the IEEE can take full advantage of the technology, while taking actions to avoid negative consequences of this technological change.

Electronic Media Technologies Used by the IEEE The Electronic Products Committee has developed a future vision of the transition of IEEE Publications to electronic dissemination [4] that is based upon the following principles: 1. IEEE information will include integrated sets of text, graphic, photographs, sound, animation, and videofiles, i.e., mixed-media, and will become increasingly more interactive. 2. The primary distribution format for the IEEE information will be electronic, utilizing networks such as the Internet, distribution on CD-ROM or other massstorage media, or both. 3. Peer review, an essential service provided by IEEE, will play an important role in electronic publishing by creating a category of highly credible information in a sea of data that is available via the Internet. The vision statement also notes that "electronic publication by the IEEE is likely to move rapidly from CD-ROM publication products to products that are available online via the World Wide Web (WWW). The on-line products, after early experiments in which the material is free, will evolve from a subscription basis to the delivery of individual articles on request." Consistent with this strategic vision, under the guidance of the Electronic Products Committee, the IEEE has introduced or is considering implementation of a number of electronic media technologies. The technologies introduced, current use, and observed changes to date are as follows. IEEE/IEE ELECTRONIC LIBRARY The I E E E / I E E Electronic Library (IEL) is a CD-ROM based product that includes full-image access to over 100 periodicals published by the IEEE and the UK-based Institution of Electrical Engineers (IEE), as well as conference proceedings, industry standards, and a subset of IEE's INSPEC index. The IEL, which consists of more than 170 CD-ROMs, includes an archive of all IEEE periodicals, conference proceedings, and standards published since 1988 and monthly updates as new material is published. Marketing plans include individual sales to institutional users such as academic libraries, including subset products for specialized markets (e.g., computer science libraries), as well as licenses for networking the IEL for use at multiple workstations within large corporate and government facilities. The IEL replaces a CD-ROM product produced and distributed for I E E E / I E E since 1988 by the UMI Company. In 1996, its first year of availability, the IEL drew 174 library customers, three more than originally projected. Telephone discussions and focus group meetings with customers revealed a number of shortcomings in the product, including inadequate documentation and difficulties with the user interface, searching, and printing capabili-

78

J.R. HERKERT AND C. S. NIELSEN

ties. A new version of the end-user System, based on a World Wide Web (WWW) browser interface and designed to correct these difficulties, is scheduled for release in 1997. While the IEL is currently sold at a discount to libraries who subscribe to the print version of the IEEE periodicals package, future plans call for selling the IEL at full-package value and discounting the print version. These plans signal a clear commitment on the part of the IEEE to a transition to electronic media as the primary means of distributing periodicals to institutional users. JOURNALS-ON-LINE Journals-on-line include publication on proprietary networks such as the On-Line Computer Library Center (OCLC) and on the Internet. The IEEE Education Society, for example, published a multimedia version of the August 1996 issue of the I E E E Transactions on Education, with the special theme of "Applications of Information Technologies to Engineering and Science Education." Along with the print version, subscribers to the journal received a CD-ROM for displaying and archiving multimedia materials included in the issue in a WWW compatible format. An on-line, public-access version of the issue was available through the WWW for a five-month test period, during which 70,000 accesses were logged from 2,600 different computers. The issue also incorporated an experimental electronic review process. Owing to the success of this project, the Education Society has committed to publishing another issue of the journal in a similar format in November 1997. In December 1996, five IEEE technical societies collaborated in launching the Journals On-Line Launch year (JOLLY) Project. Under JOLLY, twelve technical publications will be made available on-line with user-access restricted by member identification number. In the first two months of operation, the JOLLY project logged over 9,400 accesses for files in WWW compatible formats (including table of contents information) and nearly 1,500 downloads of full-image files of journal articles. These transactions occurred with 3,170 different user sites in the first month and 4,500 sites in the second month. Future plans include expansion to other IEEE technical societies (five have expressed interest), consideration of publishing full papers in WWW compatible formats, and prepublication of papers. The I E E E Computer and Communications Societies have also experimented with on-line publishing. The Communications Society, for example, operates Communications Interactive, an on-line version of its magazine, which includes member-only access to technical papers and public access to selected content. MAGAZINES-ON-LINE Magazines-on-line include WWW publication of I E E E Spectrum and its news supplement, The Institute. While access to The Institute is unrestricted, originally only members were permitted access to Spectrum via password. In the first month of online access, Spectrum logged 58,000 visits fi'om 4,600 sites. In early 1997 a redesigned Spectrum web site was launched, featuring an improved user interface, browsing and searching of full-text of back issues since 1996, searchable indices of back issues since 1990, and an original content area available for public access. Future plans include multimedia events such as live audio interviews with industry experts and interactive services for members and other readers. Plans also include selling advertising space in the on-line Spectrum. CITATIONS-ON-LINE Citations-on-line include on-line Table of Contents for all technical periodicals and conference proceedings and on-line abstracting and indexing (A&I) dating back to 1994.

IMPACT OF ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATIONON IEEE

79

This service began partial operation in early 1997 with access limited to IEEE members. Future plans include limited public access with restricted search capabilities and online links to the ASK*IEEE document delivery service. ELECTRONIC-ONLYJOURNALS Electronic-only journals include multimedia content. A prominent example is the new Transactions on Semiconductor Technology Modeling and Simulation published by the IEEE Electron Devices Society in collaboration with the Semiconductor Technical Repository at Stanford University. CD-ROM PRODUCTS Specialized CD-ROM products include a conference proceedings service and yearend collections of journals and transactions published by the IEEE Computer Society and the IEEE Lasers and Electro-Optics Society. USER-FRIENDLY AUTHORING TOOLS User-friendly authoring tools have a focus on developing a process that is both consistent with the needs of scientific and technical publishing (e.g., high-quality mathematical equations and mixed-media content) and the electronic equivalent of author produced camera-ready mats. OTHER ELECTRONIC SERVICES The Electronic Products Committee also oversees the IEEE's involvement in a number of cooperative electronic media experiments, including the N S F / A R P A / N A S A Digital Libraries Initiative (in cooperation with the University of Illinois), which focuses on interaction with SGML-structured documents and WWW-compatible user interfaces, and a project designed to provide, on a four-year trial basis, electronic access to IEEE materials in bitmap image and SGML formats within the nine campus University of California system. In addition, the IEEE has maintained since December 1995 an extensive WWW server with links to information concerning most of the major boards, committees, and member and customer services, as well as a NetForum bulletin board service. The web site of the IEEE Computer Society, the largest of the IEEE Technical societies, is accessed nearly 60,000 times per week. Under the direction of the Electronic Communications Steering Committee, electronic communication services are provided to members, customers, and the public in the form of e-mail services, e-mail alias service, newsgroups, public information retrieval, anonymous FTP servers, and file retrieval via e-mail. Examples of e-mail service include the electronic discussion list on technology and society sponsored by the Society on Social Implications of Technology and the e-mail electronic newsletters of the Lasers and Electro-Optics Society and the United States Activities Board. The IEEE sponsors 18 electronic news-groups and provides members and other stakeholders with automatic electronic file retrieval of over 1,000 documents with information ranging from the IEEE Code of Ethics to travel plans for the organization's business meetings. The IEEE also utilizes e-mail, FTP, and the WWW to facilitate the activities of about 175 standards working groups as part of the Standards Process Automation (SPA) System. One of the ultimate goals of the SPA project is to provide end-users with electronic delivery of standards. As the foregoing discussion illustrates, in a few short years the IEEE has moved from an organization cautiously evaluating the prospects of electronic media to one that in aggressively staking out a leadership position among scientific and technical

80

J.R. HERKERT AND C. S. NIELSEN

organizations in the area of electronic communication and information dissemination. One manifestation of this strategic change is the December 1996 adoption of a new slogan for the IEEE, "IEEE: Networking the World."

Overview of Study Method: The Delphi Technique The Delphi method [5] is a qualitative technique that is considered appropriate when the research purpose is to glean and synthesize expert opinion about complex issues and to identify recommendations for addressing them. The technique is frequently used in exploratory research and in efforts aimed at technological forecasting, including technological trajectories and the impacts of technological change. In this case the Delphi technique was used to assess the benefits and obstacles of the I E E E ' s transition to increased utilization of electronic communication and information dissemination. Use of the method in this research project has allowed the researchers an opportunity to pool a wide range of expert opinion in order to arrive at a series of focused predictions that may guide the I E E E ' s approach during this significant transition period. The Delphi Technique is based on a series of questionnaires. In each round of the study, respondents are provided with feedback regarding their colleagues' responses to the previous round. In this study, Delphi panelists were asked to participate in three rounds of a survey. Following a nomination process, I E E E stakeholders were asked to participate in this study. Selection reflected the heterogeneity of those who will be affected by changes in the technology of information delivery. The panel's diversity was expressed in terms of type and level of I E E E involvement (society, section, administration, etc.), type of external organization, level of current ability to use electronic information systems, and geographic location. The first round of inquiry was designed to expose the major areas of future impact of the IEEE's increased utilization of electronic communication and information dissemination. Since the 1993 strategic plan [3] had emphasized the role of electronic media as a means of meeting stakeholders' needs, the investigators chose the I E E E strategic goals and objectives as a frame-work for stimulating the panelists' responses in round one.

Panel Selection The Delphi panelists were selected from a pool of nominees in each of five categories. The categories and source of nominations are indicated below: • I E E E Leadership and Staff--nominated by the Chair of the Electronic Communi-

cations Steering Committee • I E E E Technical Activities Representatives--nominated by Division Directors • I E E E Regional Activities Representatives--nominated by Region Directors • Customers--nominated by the I E E E Sales and Marketing Department • l n f o r m e d Others (IEEE members who are leaders of relevant professional socie-

ties outside of the I E E E ) - - n o m i n a t e d by the study investigators. In order to ensure representation of appropriate constituencies, in a few cases the nominations of the I E E E leadership and regional activities representatives were supplemented by the investigators. In selecting the panel from the pool of nominees, the investigators made an effort to cover all major areas of I E E E activity, as well as to achieve balance among geographic

IMPACT OF ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION ON IEEE

81

TABLE 1 Round One Respondents by Study Category

Respondent category

n

IEEE leadership and staff IEEE technical activities representatives IEEE regional activities representatives Customers Informed others

9 7 7 4 3

Total

30

regions and technical specialities. A range of expertise within the I E E E was also sought, from "information disseminators" to "information receivers." A total of 40 individuals agreed to participate in the study. Of these, 30 r e s p o n d e d to the round one survey (the respondents are listed in A p p e n d i x A). A s indicated in Table 1, the respondents were representative of I E E E leadership and staff, technical activities, regional activities, and customers and others in roughly equal proportions. In total, 23 of the 30 respondents belong to the I E E E , with the r e m a i n d e r comprised of I E E E staff and customers. As shown in Table 2, the geographic distribution of the 23 I E E E m e m b e r s on the panel with respect to North A m e r i c a and the rest of the world is nearly identical to the overall distribution of I E E E membership. In addition to the survey questions discussed below, the respondents were asked to supply d e m o g r a p h i c information. Of the 23 respondents who are I E E E members, 20 returned the d e m o g r a p h i c questionnaire. Table 3 indicates the distribution of these 20 m e m b e r s by e m p l o y m e n t sector. A s shown, the private, academic, and public/nonprofit sectors were all represented. The distribution of m e m b e r grades among this group of 20 I E E E m e m b e r s is shown in Table 4 along with the corresponding distribution for the overall I E E E membership. O u r sample can be seen to overrepresent the higher m e m b e r s h i p grades, a result of our decision, discussed below, to weight our panel with I E E E leadership. A s indicated in Table 5, our sample is also disproportionately representative of I E E E m e m b e r s who belong to one or more of the 37 I E E E technical societies and councils. The 17 m e m b e r s of our panel who r e p o r t e d m e m b e r s h i p in I E E E technical societies belong to an average of 2.5 societies, whereas within the I E E E overall the average technical society m e m b e r belongs to 1.7 societies [6]. The extra weight of technical society m e m b e r s h i p on our panel is warranted, given the amount of involvement of the I E E in the electronic dissemination of technical periodicals and conference

TABLE 2 Membership by Region: IEEE Members on Delphi Panel and IEEE Overall

Membership status

n

IEEE members Region 1-7 (US and Canada) Region 8-10 (rest of world) Others (staff and customers)

23 (17) (6) 7

Total

30

Source: [6].

Delphi panel Percent of IEEE members 100 (74) (26)

IEEE overall percent of IEEE members" 100 (76) (24)

82

J. R. HERKERT AND C. S. NIELSEN TABLE 3 Employment Status of IEEE Members on Delphi Panel Who Supplied Demographic Data

Employment status

n

Private sector Academia Public or non-profit sector Retiree (private sector) Private sector and academia

8 6 4 1 1

Total

20

records. In total, 21 of the 37 societies and councils are represented, with at least two m e m b e r s from each of the 10 technical divisions. Since the purpose of the panel was to convene a group of expert I E E E stakeholders, a decision was m a d e by the study investigators to primarily utilize I E E E leaders. A n effort was made, however, to select at least some panelists whose credentials r e p r e s e n t e d general I E E E membership. Of the twenty I E E E m e m b e r s who returned the demographic questionnaire, six (30%) have not held leadership positions in the I E E E within the past five years. Of the 14 others, a wide range of leadership expertise is represented, as shown in Table 6, ranging from I E E E vice-president to society and section officers. W h e n asked, with respect to the I E E E , if they considered themselves to be information disseminators, information receivers, or both (Table 7), none of the respondents who supplied d e m o g r a p h i c data described themselves solely as disseminators, though about two-thirds described themselves as both. A total of 24 panelists ( m e m b e r s and non-members) returned the demographic questionnaire. A s indicated in Table 8, this group is slightly m o r e likely to have access to computers at home and dial-in access than I E E E m e m b e r s in the US, based upon a recent survey of 1,100 US I E E E m e m b e r s [7]. A s shown in Table 9, the panelists who returned the d e m o g r a p h i c questionnaire all use e-mail, though there is variety in the years of experience with e-mail. The median frequency of log-ins to use e-mail r e p o r t e d by our panelists was in the range of 26-50 times per week. In the US I E E E m e m b e r survey, it was r e p o r t e d that 79% of the respondents use e-mail at work, home, or both [7]. Round

One

Survey

Instrument

The basis for the round one survey instrument was the list of Strategic Planning Goals and Objectives included in the 1993 report Meeting Member Needs in the 21st Century: I E E E Strategies for the Future [3]. The survey consisted of three parts. TABLE 4 Member Grade: IEEE Members on Delphi Panel who Supplied Demographic Data and IEEE Overall

Member grade

n

Delphi panel %

IEEE overall percent"

Fellow Senior member Member Associate member Student member

3 8 8 1 0

15 40 40 5 0

2 8 68 10 12

20

100

100

Total ° Source: [6].

83

I M P A C T OF E L E C T R O N I C C O M M U N I C A T I O N ON I E E E TABLE 5 IEEE Technical Society Memberships: IEEE Members on Delphi Panel Who Supplied Demographic Data and IEEE Overall Delphi panel IEEE technical society memberships

IEEE overall

n

Percent of IEEE Members

percent of IEEE Members"

None One or more One Two or three More than three

3 17 (7) (8) (2)

15 85 (35) (40) (10)

38 62

Total

20

100

100

"Source: [6].

In part I, respondents were asked to assess the potential contribution of electronic communication and information dissemination in fulfilling the strategic planning goals and objectives that did not explicitly rely on the use of electronic media. The following is an example of a part I question: G L O B A L I Z A TION OBJECTIVE: Achieve worldwide acceptance of the 1EEE as a global organization, complementary to the recognized national technical, educational, and professional societies. Electronic Electronic Electronic Electronic

media media media media

will will will will

have have have have

a positive impact on achievement of this objective. a negative impact on achievement of this objective. a mixed impact on achievement of this objective. no impact on achievement of this objective.

Discuss your answer in the space provided below.

In part II, respondents were asked to assess the impact of electronic communication and information dissemination with respect to the five strategic planning goals and objectives that explicitly rely on the use of electronic media. The following is an example of a part II question: PRODUCTS A N D SERVICES OBJECTIVE: Make all 1EEE information products and databases of value to members available in electronic form as quickly as possible. 1 agree; making products and databases available in electronic form as quickly as possible is a valuable objective.

TABLE 6 Leadership Positions Held within the Past Five Years by IEEE Members on Delphi Panel Who Supplied Demographic Data Leadership positions held

n

IEEE vice-president Division director Region director Society president Section chair Major board officer Region officer Society officer Section officer Chapter officer Editor

2 2 1 3 1 2 2 7 3 1 1

84

J. R. H E R K E R T

A N D C. S. N I E L S E N

TABLE 7 Nature of Information Usage: IEEE Members on Delphi Panel Who Returned Demographic Data Information usage

n

%

information disseminator Information receiver Both No response

0 6 13 1

0 35 65 5

Total

20

100

I disagree; making products" and databases available in electronic form as quickly as possible is not a valuable objective. Discuss your answer in the space provided below.

Part III, shown below, invited open-ended commentary from the respondents on the benefits of and obstacles to the use of electronic media: In the space below, we would appreciate your listing of other major impacts" that you foresee will result from IEEE's shift to electronic communication and in Cormation dissemination. After each item, briefly explain your answer. Positive Impacts' and Opportunities (Please limit your responses to no more than 5.) Negative Impacts and Obstacles (Please limit your responses to no more than 5.)

Analysis of Round One Results The results of round one, as reflected in the boxes checked by the respondents in parts I and II, are summarized in Tables 10 and 11, respectively. Overall, the data reflects a positive disposition on the part of the panelists toward the prospects for electronic communication and information dissemination. This is particularly true in Table 11, "Goals and Objectives with Explicit Reliance on Electronic Media." However, respondents were less certain that electronic media would be instrumental in meeting other I E E E goals (see Table 10, "Goals and Objectives without Explicit Reliance on Electronic Media"). Most notably, fewer than half of the respondents regarded electronic media as having a positive impact on the objectives relating to career programs and benefits, long-term financial management, and book publishing. Of these, book publishing is perhaps the most puzzling. From the written responses of the nine panel members who describe the impacts of electronic media in this area as "mixed," it can be concluded that the panelists regard the future of book publishing and the IEEE's role therein to be closely tied to the relative future roles of paper and electronic publishing. While some respondents caution against abandoning efforts to maintain leadership in publication of

TABLE 8 Computer Use: Delphi Panelists Who Returned Demographic Data and Sample of IEEE US Members Delphi panel Computer use

n

%

I E E E US m e m b e r survey (%)"

Home computer or laptop Portion of home computers or laptops having modems

24

100

88

21

88

82

Source: [71.

IMPACT OF ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION ON 1EEE

85

TABLE 9 Years Using E-Maih Delphi Panelists Who Returned Demographic Data

E-Mail usage

n

%

One to two years Three to five years Five years or more

2 6 16

8 25 67

Total

24

100

print books, others believe that the I E E E ' s status in book publishing is highly dependent upon a timely conversion to electronic publishing. Despite the generally favorable disposition toward the I E E E ' s shift to electronic media contained in the quantitative responses to round one, however, the qualitative responses revealed both a number of significant benefits of the use of electronic media and a number of significant obstacles to the increased reliance by the I E E E on the use of electronic media. Based on a detailed content analysis of the responses to round one, the investigators identified 71 potential obstacles to the I E E E ' s increased use of electronic media. IDENTIFICATION OF FACTORS CONSISTENT WITH TECHNOLOGICAL DIFFUSION AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH On further examination, the identified obstacles appear to cluster around six factors: (1) characteristics of the I E E E as technology initiator; (2) characteristics of the potential individual adopter; (3) characteristics of the potential organizational adopter; (4) characteristics of the technology; (5) outcomes; and (6) characteristics of the contextual environment. For a more detailed description of the 71 obstacles identified in this study, refer to Appendix B, and to Figures 1-3. The identified factor categories are not unique to this study. Traditionally, such factors have been identified both in the technological diffusion literature, and in the information systems (IS)/information technology (IT) literature regarding processes of adoption and diffusion.

Technology Initiator Byrd, Sambamurthy, and Z m u d [8] describe the importance of the initiator's role in light of the IT planning process, concluding that the most important characteristics are top management support, a strategic planning orientation, and planning group consensus. Tyre and Orlikowski [9, 10] focus on the ability of the initiator to take advantage of "windows of opportunity" at key times in the process, when motivation to change and to achieve targets are strongest. Accordingly, the initiator must be able to act rapidly, select and initiate useful adaptations, and choose appropriate objectives to guide adoption activities. Other research efforts focus on significant adoption obstacles associated with initiators. For example, initiators must guard against presentations to potential users that emphasize only positive descriptive information about a technology because in so doing they are likely to disappoint potential users [11].

Individual and Organizational Adopters Some authors focus on the characteristics of individual adopters, including the importance of opinion leaders [12], user perceptions as an antecedent factor [11], and user motivations. Markus and Keil [13] point out that frequently the failure of system implementation is caused by the lack of attention to the motivations and incentives of

Organizational improvement goal: improve IEEE' s organizational structure and business practices to take greatest advantage of available resources, encourage innovation, and ensure cost-effective responsiveness to member and customer needs: maintain a sound financial position that reduces the degree of reliance on member dues, ensures efficient management and use of financial resources, and supports the lnstitute's mission and strategic goals

I-9

Globalization goal: transform the I E E E into a truly global organization, characterized by decentralized volunteer and staff leadership working cooperatively around the world, by collaborative relationships with national societies, and by active involvement of members in all areas of the world

Gtobalization objective: substantially increase I E E E membership in all countries of the world where potential new members live and work

Career enhancement objective: develop career resources in the form of programs and benefit packages that will enable all 1EEE members to prosper throughout their careers and achieve their goals for financial security and quality of life in their retirement years

1-5

I-8

Career enhancement objective: become a leading influence in improving the quality of electrotechnology education at colleges and universities worldwide

1-4

Globalization objective: achieve worldwide acceptance of the IEEE as a global organization, complementary to the recognized national technical, educational, and professional societies

27

Career enhancement objective: increase the conviction of IEEE members and industrial leaders of the value of investing in continual improvement and revitalization of technical and professional competencies

I-3

I-7

12

Career enhancement objective: assure that all IEEE members have access to an appropriate range of cost-beneficial intellectual resources that will enable them to develop and continually update their technical and professional competencies throughout their careers

I-2

16

19

23

19

18

22

25

Career enhancement goal: empower I E E E members to realize lifelong careers in electrotechnotogy by providing a broad range of resources that will enable them to prosper and to develop and update their technical and professional competencies

I1

Positive impact ~'

Goal/Objective

no.

Question

1

1

1

t)

0

0

0

0

0

Negative impact~

T A B L E 10 Round One Results: Goals and Objectives without Explicit Reliance on Electronic Media

5

Mixed impact~ No

0

impact~

No

0

response

Z

z

.(~

> :z

7~ ~z

m m

Products and services objective: position the IEEE as a premier publisher of books on electrotechnology and as the publisher of choice for member-authors.

Public responsibility goal: align IEEE initiatives with the public interest by advocating the application of electrotechnology to promote economic development and by increasing public awareness, acceptance, and appreciation of the contributions to society made by electrotechnology and the profession

Public responsibility objective: foster economic development by promoting the advancement of electrotechnology

Public responsibility objective: improve the public's image of electro-technology professions and the role of engineers and scientists in society

Public responsibility objective: enhance the quality of instruction and foster student interest in mathematics and the sciences in their early educational years; enhance public understanding of technology

1-14

I-15

1-16

1-17

1-18

a positive impact on achievement of this goal (objective). a negative impact on achievement of this goal (objective). a mixed impact on achievement of this goal (objective). no impact on achievement of this goal (objective).

Products and services objective: make the IEEE a major force in the development and dissemination of standards and related information that serve the needs of the global electrotechnology community

1 13

will have will have will have will have

Products and services objective: more closely match IEEE products and services to the needs of members and nonmember customers worldwide, with special emphasis on the practical applications of electrotechnology and environmental concerns

1-12

media media media media

Organizational improvement objective: develop a long-term financial management strategy for the Institute

I 11

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Organizational improvement objective: optimize use of the expertise, energy, and dedication of the IEEE staff and volunteer leaders by creating an energizing, supportive work environment

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Globalization objective: transform the I E E E into a distributed, networked, global organization sensitive to multicultural issues; take full advantage of available technology to overcome geographic and economic constraints in conducting the Institute's global operations l agree: taking full advantage of available technology will enable I E E E to overcome geographic and economic constraints and will assist in its transformation to a culturally sensitive organization I disagree; taking full advantage of available technology will not enable I E E E to overcome geographic and economic constraints, nor will it assist in its transformation to a culturally sensitive organization

Organizational improvement objective: enhance I E E E ' s commitment to excellence of service for members and customers in all technical and geographic areas, taking full advantage of opportunities for interactive electronic access to services I agree; interactive electronic access to services will enhance I E E E ' s service to members and customers in all technical and geographic areas 1 disagree; interactive electronic access to services will not enhance I E E E ' s service to members and customers in all technical and geographic areas

Organizational improvement objective: minimize barriers between the I E E E ' s many organizational units and increase productivity by fostering innovation, promoting interunit cooperation, and using current electronic systems to enhance communications among members, volunteer leaders, and staff members around the world I agree: the use of current electronic systems will enhance communications, minimize barriers, and increase productivity of I E E E members, leaders, and staff I disagree; the use of current electronic systems will not enhance communications, minimize barriers, and increase productivity of I E E E members, leaders, and staff

Products and services goal: move expeditiously to the electronic dissemination of existing I E E E products and services; systematically identify opportunities for expanding the product line to take full advantage of the electronic media and to broaden the markets for the lnstitute's products and services; achieve and maintain recognition of the I E E E as a leader in the timely generation and dissemination of global electrotechnology standards 1 agree; moving rapidly into electronic dissemination of products and services will increase 1EEE's markets and will increase recognition of 1EEE's leadership position in the timely generation and dissemination of standards I disagree; moving rapidly into electronic dissemination of products and services will not increase I E E E ' s markets nor will it increase recognition of I E E E ' s leadership position in the timely generation and dissemination of standards

Products and services objective: make all I E E E information products and databases of value to members available in electronic form as quickly as possible I agree; making products and databases available in electronic form as quickly as possible is a valuable objective I disagree; making products and databases available in electronic form as quickly as possible is not a valuable objective

II-2

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T A B L E 11 Round One Results: Goals and Objectives with Explicit Reliance on Electronic Media

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IMPACT OF ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION ON IEEE

89

Number of Respondents 1) IEEE AS INITIATOR Quality of information Educational content m l Economies of scale m 2 Multilingual support m 2 Speed and accuracy Institutional commitment Planning and quality

113 10

Practical use to public m l Resistance to change m l Moving too rapidly Privacy protection User involvement Human resource mgmt.

15

Electronic infrastructure m 2 Technically trained staff Publicity m l First Amendment issues m l 2) INDIV. ADOPTER Mastery of tools Resistance to tech.

13

Costs of standards m l Unwilling to pay Format user wants Consistent delivery form Author/reader preference Costs to members Fig. 1. Round one: IEEE as technology initiator (Factor 1) and individual adopter (Factor 2).

the "hands-on" users, but in many of these cases, the failure is attributed to technical factors, such as the lack of accessibility, p o o r user interface, or inadequate training. They conclude that the users must be the primary beneficiaries of the system and not suffer the burden of increased d e m a n d s due to system implementation. Kwon and Z m u d [14] identify five major factors in the diffusion process, including both individual a d o p t e r characteristics (job tenure, education, resistance to change) and organizational a d o p t e r characteristics (specialization, centralization, formalization). O t h e r authors highlight the importance of the organization's "absorptive capacity" [15]. A n i m p o r t a n t aspect of this factor is the organization's ability to possess and exchange both business unit and IT knowledge between business managers and IT managers [16].

J. R. HERKERT AND C. S. NIELSEN

90

Numberof Respondents 3) ORG. ADOPTER Hardware/access

I

Onlyacademic access l

1

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l

Relevanceto IEEE areas 1 1 Libraryfacilities 1 1 4) TECHNOLOGY Informationoverload Not user-friendly Not alwayscost efficient ~

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1

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1

m 1

Fig. 2. Round one: Organizational adopter (Factor 3) and technology (Factor 4).

Markus [17] points to a shift in focus from individual adopter to organizational adopter when considering the utilization of electronic communication media. Whereas the choice of traditional communication media could be seen from the perspective of individuals rationally selecting communication tools matched to the communication task, the adoption of electronic media for communications depends on a certain level of social acceptance across the organizational network.

The Technology Characteristics of the technology itself can impede adoption and diffusion processes. Some of the most often cited problems are lack of accessibility, poor user interface

IMPACT OF ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION ON IEEE

91 Number of Respondents

5) OUTCOMES Librarybudgets I l l WWW credit I Membership (alt. access) /

1 3

Public relations limited m Remote & inward looking i 1 Negative publicity ~

2 3

Intellectualproperty Standards timeliness I l l Standards accuracy /

3

IEEE book business Dual organization I 1 Mgmt. effort/complexity

Iz

Human interaction Global network /

3

Liabilitiesfor harm (data) | 1 Redirection of revenues I 1 Membership (non-users) I 1 Litigation use I 1 Electronic and traditional I 1 Illegalcopying I 1 Underutilization N i l 6) ENVIRONMENT Cultural, social, etc. 1

3

National societies/IFIP I 1 Competition (general) I t Developingcountries gap Competition (public att.) I 1 Internet culture: free info. I 1

Fig. 3. Round one: Outcomes (Factor 5) and environment (Factor 6).

[13], complexity [14], and lack of compatibility with the current user operations [18]. O n the positive side, L e o n a r d - B u r t o n and Sinha [18] found a strong correlation between user satisfaction and both strong technical performance and cost effectiveness of the technology.

Outcomes Existing research focuses on positive organizational outcomes as a measure of successful IS implementation. Saunders and Jones [19] provide a ranking of the top ten IS contributions, based on a thorough literature review and perceptions of senior

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J . R . H E R K E R T A N D C. S. N I E L S E N

executives. The most significant outcomes identified in their study are IS impact on strategic direction, integration with corporate planning, quality of information outputs, and contributions to financial performance and operational efficiency. Boynton, Zmud, and Jacobs [16] focus on the positive outcomes of cost reduction, management support, strategic planning, and competitive advantage.

The Contextual Environment Byrd, Sambamurthy, and Zmud [8] evaluate the relative importance of organization size, IT sophistication, IT innovation, environmental complexity, and environmental turbulence as contextual factors that affect the organization's ability to successfully carry out IT planning. Kwon and Zmud [14] identify two streams of research related to the environment: (1) "process research," which emphasizes the social context within which technology implementation takes place; and (2) "political research," which emphasizes the vested interests of the potential adopters. Cooper and Zmud [20] conclude that political interests may be the most influential factor in organizational "infusion." M A J O R OBSTACLES I D E N T I F I E D IN R O U N D O N E

The round one results suggest that the major obstacles to the adoption of electronic media are primarily related to the IEEE as technology initiator and problems associated with organizational adopters. Twenty respondents focused on the lack of access to electronic information provided by the IEEE due to lack of availability of hardware and software within organizations. Fifteen respondents stressed problems with ineffective human resource management and training at the IEEE. Twenty-five percent or more focused on the lack of planning and quality of services provided, the lack of guaranteed quality of information, and a concern that IEEE may be moving too rapidly. Another concern, resistance to the technology on the part of the individual adopters, was noted by slightly less than half of the respondents.

Round Two Survey Instrument and Results In the second round, participants were provided with a synthesis of obstacles to the IEEE's increased reliance on electronic media as described by their colleagues in round one. Each respondent was asked to focus on what he or she regarded as the most problemmatic obstacles, i.e., those that they perceived as major impediments. The round two instructions were as follows: Please select a total o f no more than ten obstacles that you perceive as major impediments to 1EEE's use o f electronic media .for communication and information dissemination. M a k e y o u r selections by placing a check m a r k on the space next to each item. P L E A S E C H E C K N O M O R E T H A N T E N O B S T A C L E S . P L E A S E M A K E Y O U R C H O I C E S I R R E S P E C T I V E O F CA T E G O R Y ; i.e., y o u r choices may be widely dispersed across categories or may be drawn f r o m just one or two categories.

In all, 28 of the 30 panelists responded to the round two survey, with individual responses ranging from three to 14 obstacles selected from the list of 71. The obstacles recognized by at least 25% of the respondents in either round one or round two are shown in Table 12. (For complete results of round two, refer to Appendix B and Figures 4-6.) As indicated in Table 12, the panelists emphasized a somewhat different set of obstacles in round two than had been identified in round one. In particular, the round two results reflect an increase in concern over obstacles relating to characteristics of potential individual adopters and characteristics of the technology. The most notable result of round two is a very significant increase in concern over an outcome, that of

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I M P A C T OF E L E C T R O N I C C O M M U N I C A T I O N ON I E E E

TABLE 12 Round One and Round Two Results: Obstacles Recognized by 25% or More of Respondents in Either Round No. of respondents Obstacles Characteristics of IE E E as technology initiator Quality of information, products, and services provided is not guaranteed by electronic delivery Lack of planning and quality in services provided Moving too rapidly before dominant design of the technology and consumer needs are identified Ineffective human resource management and training at IEEE (resulting in lack of responsiveness, lack of cooperation, poor quality, etc.) Characteristics of the potential individual adoptor Lack of mastery of medium/interface tools by portion of IE EE members Resistance to the technology by portion of IEEE members, staff, and other stakeholders Potential costs of on-line access to IEEE standards if revenues to be maintained (a "per use" or "per minute" charge may restrict users who will not browse) Electronic dissemination could reduce the IEEE's net income if stakeholders are unwilling to pay Electronic communications (e.g., e-mail) transfers much of the cost of communications from IEEE to members who have to sign on to commercial providers for Internet access Characteristics of the potential organizational adopter Lack of computdrs, CD-ROM players, modems, on-line services and software; therefore lack of access by IEEE members and other stakeholders to the types of electronic media being used by IEEE

Round one

Round two

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Characteristics of the technology Information overload if no easy way to locate relevant information or to filter out irrelevant and useless data

7

16

Outcomes Information must be made available in both electronic and traditional forms (print) so that those who do not have the technology are not excluded

1

12

having to maintain both electronic and print formats. R o u n d two responses put somewhat less emphasis on characteristics of organizational users and the I E E E as technology initiator.

Round Three Survey Instrument and Results In the third round, participants were asked to examine the 11 leading impediments to the use of electronic media by the I E E E that were identified as a result of r o u n d two (see Table 12). Their r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s were sought as to actions that the I E E E could take to gain full advantage of the benefits of electronic communication and information dissemination, while avoiding or alleviating these p r o b l e m areas. The r o u n d three instructions and a typical obstacle are as follows: For each obstacle listed below, please indicate one or more actions that could be taken to overcome the obstacle. In addition, for each specific action you recommend, please indicate which entity or entities should play the lead role in its implementation.

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J. R. H E R K E R T A N D C. S. N I E L S E N Number of Respondents 1) IEEE AS INITIATOR Quality of information Educational content

m~

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Fig. 4. Round two: IEEE as technology initiator (Factor 1) and individual adopter (Factor 2). CHARACTERISTICS OF THE P O T E N T I A L INDIVIDUAL A D O P T E R a. Lack of mastery of medium~interface tools" by portion of IEEE members (10) 1. Recommended Action: Responsible Entities: IEEE: Other." 2. Recommended Action: Responsible Entities: IEEE: Other: 3. Recommended Action: Responsible Entities: IEEE: Other:

IMPACT OF ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION ON IEEE

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Number of Respondents 3) ORG. ADOPTER Hardware/access

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3

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Fig. 5. Round two: Organizational adopter (Factor 3) and technology (Factor 4~.

In all, 19 of the 28 panelists who responded to the round two survey subsequently responded to round three. Analysis of the round three responses consisted of a content analysis of the responses to the five obstacles identified most frequently by respondents to round two and aggregation of these responses into several consensus recommendations. The five obstacles considered are listed in Table 13.

Conclusions This research into the IEEE's adoption and utilization of electronic media has led to the identification of six factors in the organizational diffusion process: (1) characteris-

96

J. R. HERKERT AND C. S. NIELSEN Number of Respondents 5) OUTCOMES Librarybudgets WWW credit 0 Membership (alt. access) ~

3

Public relations limited Remote & inward looking Negative publicity 0 Intellectualproperty ~

5

Standards timeliness ~ 2 Standards accuracy IEEE book business Dual organization Mgmt. effort/complexity m 2 Human interaction ~ 3 Global network ~ 2 Liabilitiesfor harm (data) ~ 2 Redirectionof revenues ~ Membership (non-users) ~

5 3

Litigationuse Electronic and traditional

12

Illegalcopying Underutilization m 2 6) ENVIRONMENT Cultural, social, etc. ~

5

National societies/IFIP Competition(general) Developingcountries gap ~ 2 Competition(publicart.) ~ 2 Internet culture: free info. ~

5

Fig. 6. Round two: Outcomes (Factor 5) and environment (Factor 6).

tics of the I E E E as technology initiator; (2) characteristics of the potential individual adopter; (3) characteristics of the potential organizational adopter; (4) characteristics of the technology; (5) outcomes, and (6) characteristics of the contextual environment. A n important contribution of this work is the comprehensive nature of the factors that were revealed through the responses of the Delphi panelists. Such a b r o a d view of relevant factors is responsive to certain researchers' conclusions that many IT adoption and diffusion studies focus on too few factors [14]. This technology diffusion framework provides a useful perspective for defining current "bottlenecks" in the electronic media utilization process within the I E E E and for initiating plans to overcome them. Such a system-wide a p p r o a c h is necessary if the

IMPACT OF ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION ON IEEE

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TABLE 13 Round Two Obstacles Most Frequently Recognized

Obstacles

No. of respondents

Characteristics of IEEE as technology initiator Moving too rapidly before dominant design of the technology and consumer needs are identified

10

Characteristics of the potential individual adopter Lack of mastery of medium/interface tools by portion of IEEE members.

10

Characteristics of the potential organizational adopter Lack of computers, CD-ROM players, modems, on-line services and software; therefore lack of access by IEEE members and other stakeholders to the types of electronic media being used by IEEE

14

Characteristics of the technology Information overload if no easy way to locate relevant information or to filter out irrelevant and useless data

16

Outcomes Information must be made available in both electronic and traditional forms (print) so that those who do not have the technology are not excluded

12

t e c h n o l o g y is to b e a p p l i e d for t h e b e n e f i t s o f t h e I E E E ' s 300,000 m e m b e r s a n d f o r t h e e x t e r n a l s t a k e h o l d e r s w h o rely o n t h e I E E E as a s o u r c e o f t e c h n i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n and standards. C o n t e n t analysis o f D e l p h i p a n e l i s t s r e s p o n s e s has led to a series o f r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s f o r t h e I E E E . T h e s e r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s m a y b e useful to o t h e r scientific a n d t e c h n i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s as well, as t h e y s e e k to o v e r c o m e o b s t a c l e s to t h e u t i l i z a t i o n ot e l e c t r o n i c m e d i a . T h e r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s are as follows: MEETING THE CHALLENGE AS TECHNOLOGY INITIATOR • A s s e s s m e m b e r a n d c u s t o m e r n e e d s a n d d e v e l o p a c o h e r e n t vision for electronic media • B e a l e a d e r in e l e c t r o n i c m e d i a in o r d e r t o u n d e r s t a n d issues a n d a v o i d falling behind. • Set r e a s o n a b l e goals a n d t e c h n o l o g y m i l e s t o n e s . • P r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n in a flexible, s t a n d a r d e l e c t r o n i c f o r m a t . OVERCOMING INDIVIDUAL BARRIERS TO ELECTRONIC MEDIA ADOPTION • D e v e l o p a user-friendly electronic interface. • P r o v i d e e d u c a t i o n a n d t r a i n i n g to m e m b e r s o n use o f e l e c t r o n i c m e d i a . OVERCOMING ORGANIZATIONAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL BARRIERS TO ELECTRONIC MEDIA ADOPTION • P r o v i d e m e m b e r s w i t h h a r d w a r e , s o f t w a r e , a n d I n t e r n e t c o n n e c t i o n s at disc o u n t e d rates. • D e v e l o p o r g a n i z a t i o n - s p e c i f i c s e a r c h e n g i n e s , n a v i g a t i o n a l tools, a n d A & I c a p a bilities. • E s t a b l i s h o r g a n i z a t i o n - s p e c i f i c w o r k s t a t i o n s in c e n t r a l l o c a t i o n s s u c h as libraries.

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J.R. HERKERT AND C. S. NIELSEN

ENSURING POSITIVE OUTCOMES • Continue to use both print and electronic media as long as demand exists for print, targeting specific applications with the most suitable delivery medium. • Provide financial incentives for switching to electronic media. Future Research MODEL BUILDING Over the past 10 years, authors in the IT field have focused their research on the identification and description of significant factors in the processes of technology adoption and diffusion. Fewer authors have attempted to model these factors as interrelated elements within a social system. Kwon and Zmud [14] took an important step in this direction in 1987 with their work to unify fragmented models of information systems implementation. They conclude that most studies focus on too few of the model states and factors, and they call for future research to explore the impacts of multiple contextual factors throughout the stages of implementation. Several authors have responded to this challenge. Cooper and Zmud [20] created a systems model of IT implementation to demonstrate the correlation between characteristics of task and technology (compatibility) and connection between task and technology (complexity). In this model, successful implementation is the outcome that depends on these relationships. Byrd, Sambamurthy, and Zmud [8] carried out an exploratory study to examine contextual factors and aspects of the IT planning process and their impact on the development of quality IT plans (dependent factor). Research findings reported here on the IEEE's technology adoption process supports continued efforts to integrate IT model building with the more general innovation diffusion models. For example, the factors revealed in this study represent a substantial fit with Rogers' Innovation Paradigm [21, 22], and with recent adaptations [23, 24] in terms of antecedent factors, process factors, environmental factors, and outcomes. However, this study of the I E E E would suggest the development of a diffusion model expanded to include organizational actors: both the initiator and the organizational user. MODEL TESTING The "IS management process variables" model proposed by Boynton, Zmud, and Jacobs [16] is an empirically based work suggesting that high levels of IT use are dependent upon the absorptive capacity of the organization. Interpretation of the model suggests that absorptive capacity depends on a "synergistic" exchange of IT and businessrelated knowledge and a supportive IT climate. Of all the IT models reviewed for this paper, this model is the most complex, but offers substantial promise as a vehicle for understanding technology adoption and implementation at the organizational level. A longitudinal study of the IEEE's process of adoption and utilization of electronic media would represent an excellent case study by which to test the interrelationships proposed in the Boynton, Zmud, and Jacobs model. RESEARCH FOR THE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL COMMUNITIES The authors are currently working with a small number of experts in electronic publishing to design a forum in which stakeholders will exchange information so that the needs of the scientific and technical communities are more likely to be incorporated in the dominant design for electronic publishing technologies. This effort is supported by grants from the I E E E Foundation and the National Science Foundation.

IMPACT OF ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION ON IEEE

99

A n o t h e r area of research will focus on the characterization of benefits of electronic media utilization identified by the I E E E Delphi panelists in round one of this study. The panelists provided a rich database of perceived benefits that warrants further investigation.

Appendix A: Delphi Panelists • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

Jacob Baal-Schem, School of Communications (Israel) Robert A. Begun, Retired Ron Bose, A T & T John Bowers, University of California-Santa Barbara Chris J. Brantley, I E E E US Activities Thomas P. Brisco, I E E E Information Technology David Cordes, University of Alabama Jonathan Dahl, I E E E Marketing and Sales Robert M. Janowiak, International Engineering Consortium Jaan John, Czech Technical University J. Harry Jones, Southern Company Services, Inc. Isabele Kaplan, University of Rochester Library Kenneth R. Laker, University of Pennsylvania Dennis W. Lamont, Weldy/Lamont Associates, Inc. James W. Leonard, IBM TJ Watson Research Center Library Jill Berman Levy, I E E E Regional Activities James Lommel, G E Corporate Research and Development Dianne Martin, George Washington University Bill Owens, Sundstrand Aerospace Roger D. Pollard, University of Leeds Vernon Powers, I E E E Region 3 Robert Prandolini, Queensland University of Technology Douglas J. Rosinski, Consultant Andrew Schwab, TriNet Services, Inc. Nemo Semret, U N Pan-African Development Information System John Perry Smith, Total Information James Taylor, I E E E Technical Activities Jeri Uzzo, I E E E Publications Ricardo A. Veiga, University of Buenos Aires Helen M. Wood, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Appendix B: Rounds One and Two Results--Obstacles (Number of respondents citing obstacle for rounds one and two, respectively, arc indicated in parentheses.) 1. CHARACTERISTICS OF IEEE AS TECHNOLOGY INITIATOR • Quality of information, products, and services provided not guaranteed by electronic delivery (8, 7) • I~arge areas (of educational content) that are not covered through electronic media (1, 1) • Inability of I E E E to utilize economies of scale to reduce costs of electronic materials offered in developing countries (2, 2)

I00

J.R. HERKERT AND C. S. NIELSEN • Electronic materials available only in English; multilingual support not available (2, 2) • Level of I E E E ' s service for electronic materials, in terms of speed and accuracy, may not meet recipients' expectations (5, 6) • Lack of institutional commitment to electronic media within I E E E (3, 4) • Lack of planning and quality in services provided (10, 4) • I E E E does not offer general information of practical use to the public (1, 2) • I E E E ' s institutional resistance to change (1, 3) • Moving too rapidly before dominant design of the technology and consumer needs are identified (8, 10) • Need to be attentive to privacy protection (2, 3) • Lack of user involvement in development of electronic media (1, 1) • Ineffective human resource management and training at I E E E (resulting in lack of responsiveness, lack of cooperation, poor quality, etc.) (15, 8) • Lack of investment in electronic infrastructure for I E E E staff (2, 4) • Lack of technically trained staff at I E E E (6, 4) • Lack of publicity about electronic access to I E E E (1, 0) • Need to be attentive to First A m e n d m e n t issues (1, 0)

2. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POTENTIAL INDIVIDUAL ADOPTER • Lack of mastery of medium/interface tools by portion of I E E E members (7, 10) • Resistance to the technology by portion of I E E E members, staff, and other stakeholders (13, 8) • Potential costs of on-line access to I E E E standards if revenues to be maintained (a "per use" or "per minute" charge may restrict users who will not browse) (1, 8) • Electronic dissemination could reduce the I E E E ' s net income if stakeholders are unwilling to pay (6, 8) • Information delivery must be in format user wants (3, 4) • Must be consistent delivery form over time or customers will become frustrated (1, 3) • A u t h o r and reader preferences for conventional publishing (including such considerations as page charges, subscription costs, copyright, author services, and customer services) (3, 4) • Electronic communications (e.g., e-mail) transfers much of the cost of communications from I E E E to members who have to sign on a to commercial providers for Internet access (1, 7) 3. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POTENTIAL ORGANIZATIONAL ADOPTER • Lack of computers, C D - R O M players, modems, on-line services, and software; therefore lack of access by I E E E members and other stakeholders to the types of electronic media being used by I E E E (20, 14) • Only academics have easy access to electronic media (1, 3) • The university community may not reward faculty for electronic publications (1, 6) • Electronic media has greater relevance to some technical areas within I E E E than others (1, 0) • Very few academic libraries have the facilities to bring electronic products to all the users that want them (1, 2)

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4. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TECHNOLOGY • Information overload if no easy way to locate relevant information or to filter out irrelevant and useless data (7, 16) • Lack of user-friendly interface technology (2, 3) • Electronic media not always cost efficient (7, 5) • Electronic education media isolates the student from the teacher; benefits of classroom interaction may be lost (1, 0) • Setting up systems for document formatting and electronic distribution is time consuming (2, 1) • Current level of electronic modeling is not adequate to support financial management (2, 2) • Electronic media lends itself too easily to merely automating the old way of doing things, rather than looking for completely new ways to solve problems (1, 6) • Lack of equipment compatibility (2, 3) • Inability to fully transfer traditional publications to electronic media (1, 3) • Lack of business models for buying products on-line (1, 2) • Lack of adequate bandwidth capability in many countries (1, 5) • High start-up costs for electronic dissemination (1, 2) • Need to track the fast pace of change in information technologies (1, 1) • Libraries must continually invest in new hardware at the expense of keeping up a journal and book collection (1, 2) 5. OUTCOMES • The addition of I E E E Electronic publications may put further pressure on shrinking library budgets (1, 4) • W W W software vendors may get credit for IEEE-provided materials since their home pages are viewed first (1, 0) • If I E E E information is available through companies' networks and other sources, membership may decline (3, 3) • Use of electronic media for public relations reaches a limited number of stakeholders (2, 1) • Strategy could backfire: may make profession seem more remote and inward looking (1, 1) • Strategy could backfire: negative publicity due to certain features of Internet (e.g., pornography) (3, 0) • Intellectual property will be threatened (5, 5) • Standards available electronically may not be up to date (1, 2) • Standards available electronically may not be accurate (resulting, for example in legal liabilities for I E E E ) (3, 1) • Electronic media might hurt I E E E book business (4, 5) • Could result in a dual organization, one based on electronic media and one based on the old way of doing things (1, 4) • May increase level of effort and complexity of I E E E ' s management processes (e.g., new cost centers) (2, 2) • Loss of human interaction among I E E E members, customers, and staff (7, 3) • Lack of true global network within I E E E , if Third World countries are excluded (3, 2) • Liabilities for harm caused from use of corrupt or incorrect data/information (1, 2)

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• Erosion of revenues from the originators of I E E E products and services (e.g., societies) and redirection of revenues to the packagers of the material (e.g, electronic publishing unit/general fund) (1, 5) • Loss of members that do not use electronic media (1, 3) • Not suitable for litigation use (1, 1) • Information must be made available in both electronic and traditional forms (print) so that those who do not have the technology are not excluded (1, 12) • Illegal copying of paid information services (1, 5) • Underutilization of electronic resources would inflate costs of available resources (1, 2) 6. C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S O F T H E C O N T E X T U A L E N V I R O N M E N T

• Cultural, social, political, and organization barriers (3, 5) • National societies and the International Federation for Information Processing may feel threatened by I E E E ' s global presence (1, 1) • Increased competition for I E E E through electronic media (1, 1) • Use of electronic media may widen the gap between developed and developing countries (6, 2) • There will be a lot of competition for the public's attention through electronic media (1, 2) • The culture o f " f r e e " information on the Internet: items previously sold (abstracts, indexing) are now provided free for marketing purposes (1, 5) This research was supported by a grant from the I E E E Technical Activities Board, Electronic Products Committee. The authors wish to thank the members and staff of the Electronic Products Committee for their assistance, especially the committee chair, Frederick T. Andrews. We also wish to acknowledge the time and insights of the 30 Delphi panelists and the many I E E E leaders and staff who assisted us in assembling the panel, especially Gerald Engel, Robert AMen, Jonathan Dahl, and Rosanne Loyal References 1. Garton, L., and Wellman, B.: Social Impacts of Electronic Mail in Organizations: A Review of the Research Literature, Communication Yearbook 18, 434-453 (1995). 2. Herkert, J., and Nielsen, C.: Identifying Obstacles in the Shift to Electronic Media by Professional Societies: A Delphi Study of the IEEE, Proceedings of the 1996 International Symposium on Technology and Society. IEEE, New York, 1996. 3. IEEE: Meeting Member Needs in the 21st Century: IEEE Strategies for the Future. New York: IEEE, 1993. 4. IEEE: Status and Vision: Transition of IEEE Publications to Electronic Dissemination. IEEE, New York, 1996, pp. 337-346. 5. Delbecq, A., Van de Ven, A., and Gustafson, D.: Group Techniques for Program Planning. Scott, Foresman, and Company, Glenview, 1975. 6. Turner, C.: Annual Report of the Secretary. IEEE, New York, 1995. 7. Hoist, P., et al.: 1995 IEEE Electronic Communication Questionnaire, The Institute (on-line version) January 1996 (http://www.institute.ieee.org/INST/jan96/ecsurvey.html). 8. Byrd, T. A., Sambamurthy, V., and Zmud, R. W.: An Examination of IT Planning in a Large, Diversified Public Organization, Decision Sciences 26(1), 49-73 (1995). 9. Tyre, M. J., and Orlikowski, W. J.: Exploiting Opportunities for Technological Improvement in Organizations, Sloan Management Review, 13-26 (1993). 10. Tyre, M. J., and Orlikowski, W. J.: Windows of Opportunity: Temporal Patterns of Technological Adaptation in.Organizations, Organization Science 5(1), 98-118 (1994). 11. Griffith, T. L., and Northcraft, G. B.: Cognitive Elements in the Implementation of New Technology: Can Less Information Provide More Benefits?, MIS Quarterly 20(1), 99-109 (1996).

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12. Zmud, R. W., and Apple, L. E.: Measuring Technology Incorporation/Infusion, Journal of Product Innovation Management 9(2), 148-155 (1992). 13. Markus, M. L., and Keil, M.: If We Build It, They Will Come: Designing Information Systems That People Want to Use, Sloan Management Review 35(4), 11-25 (1994) 14. Kwon, T. H., and Zmud, R. W.: Unifying the Fragmented Models of Information Systems Implementation, Critical Issues in Information Systems Research. J. R. Boland and R. A. Hirschheim, eds., John Wiley, New York, 1987. 15. Cohen, W. M., and Levinthal, D. A.: Absorptive Capacity: A New Perspective on Learning and Innovation, Administrative Science Quarterly 35, 128-152 (1990). 16. Boynton, A. C., Zmud, R. W., and Jacobs, G. C.: The Influence of IT Management Practice on IT Use in Large Organizations, MIS Quarterly 18(3), 299-318 (1994). 17. Markus, M. L.: Electronic Mail as the Medium of Managerial Choice, Organization Science 5(4), 502527 (1994). 18. Leonard-Barton, D., and Sinha, D. K.: Developer-User Interaction and User Satisfaction in Internal Technology Transfer, Academy of Management Journal 36(5), 1125-1139 (1993). 19. Saunders, C. S., and Jones, J. W.: Measuring Performance of the Information Systems Function, Journal of Management Information Systems 8(4), 63-82 (1992). 20. Cooper, R. B., and Zmud, R. W.: Information Technology Implementation Research: A Technological Diffusion Approach, Management Science 36(2), 123-139 (t990). 21. Rogers, E.: Diffusion of Innovation. 3rd ed., Free Press, New York, 1983. 22. Rogers, E.: Communication Technology: The New Media in Society. Free Press, New York, 1986. 23. Nielsen-Spector, C., and Sahay, S.: Information Technology for Resources Inventory and Monitoring in Developing Countries, Global Issues of Information Technology Management. S. Palvira et al., eds., Idea Group Publishing, Harrisburg, 1992. 24. Nielsen, C., et al.: International Technology Transfer and Diffusion: A Comparative Analysis of Two Hightech Industries. Presentation at the Academy of International Business Annual Meeting, Maui, HI, October 21-24, 1993.

Received 1 March 1997; revised 18 March 1997; accepted 7 May 1997