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Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union
ENVSCI-1412; No. of Pages 13 environmental science & policy xxx (2014) xxx–xxx
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Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union Senem Teksoy Basaran a, A. Ozgur Dogru b,*, Filiz Bektas Balcik b, N. Necla Ulugtekin b, Cigdem Goksel b, Seval Sozen a a
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Environmental Engineering Department, Istanbul Technical University, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey b Faculty of Civil Engineering, Geomatics Engineering Department, Istanbul Technical University, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey
article info
abstract
Keywords:
This paper aims to assess the renewable energy capacity of Turkey in order to consider main
Renewable energy
priorities in the energy policy of Turkey. In this paper, renewable energy potential and
Renewable sources
regulatory conditions are discussed in Turkey in comparison with European Union. The
Energy policy
results of the study implemented within the framework of EnviroGRIDS project indicated a
Energy potential
promising yet very susceptible future for the implementation of renewable energy power plants in Turkey. The forecasts have shown that the solar power potential utilization is becoming more significant after 2020. The projections for 2050 indicate that electricity consumption from small and medium renewable energy sources including solar and wind will constitute 15% of the total, whereas the solar thermal will constitute around 16%. Geothermal and other renewables will remain around 3%. According to the high demand scenario, in 2050 the share of hydropower in overall electricity generation will be 12%, followed by solar power at 7% and wind power at 3%. Additionally, renewable energy policy and regulations in Turkey and in EU are overviewed in this study. On the contrary to EU, the constant feed-in tariff amount does not consider capital investments of specific energy sources in Turkey that brings disadvantage to the implementation. However, new regulations published and currently applied should be accepted as milestones in acquisition period of Turkey in EU. # 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1.
Introduction
Renewable energy sources enable countries both meeting domestic energy requirements and protecting the environment with zero or almost zero emissions of both air pollutants
and greenhouse gases. Turkey has a favorable geographical position which results in having a good renewable energy. Turkey with totally 1778 km of border to Black Sea is divided in to 81 administrative provinces in seven geographical regions. Since the Black Sea Catchment was selected as the study area of the EnviroGRIDS project, only 41 provinces of Turkey were
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +90 5359261211; fax: +90 2122853414. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (S.T. Basaran), [email protected], [email protected] (A.O. Dogru), [email protected] (F.B. Balcik), [email protected] (N.N. Ulugtekin), [email protected] (C. Goksel), [email protected] (S. Sozen). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016 1462-9011/# 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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completely or partially covered in this study. Provinces completely covered are mostly located in Black Sea and Marmara Regions along the Black Sea Cost of Turkey whereas partially covered provinces are located in Marmara, Aegean, Central Anatolia and Eastern Anatolia Regions. Turkey lies in a sunny belt between 36N and 42N latitudes. The yearly average solar radiation is 3.6 kWh/m2 day and average sunshine duration is 2640 h, corresponding to around 30% of the year. Theoretical technical solar potential, unconstrained by technical, economic or environmental requirements of Turkey was cited in official publications to be not more than 1% or 88 Mtoe/year, 40% of which was considered economically usable. Three-fourths (24.4 Mtoe/year) of the economically usable potential is considered suitable for thermal use, with the remaining (8.8 Mtoe/year) for electricity production (Ertekin et al., 2008). Solar power potential assessment for the national ‘‘solar atlas’’ was produced with the ‘‘ESRI Solar Radiation Model’’ used in GIS. The solar atlas presents the solar radiation and sunshine hours are calculated for 57 cities of Turkey. It is estimated that Turkey’s technical wind energy potential is 88 GW and economical potential is approximately 10 GW depending on the technical condition. The wind atlas prepared by the General Directorate of Renewable Energies reported that, Turkey’s technical wind energy potential was 83 GW and production potential was 166 TWh/year. However, Turkey’s total installed wind capacity was only 2800 MW in 2010. The potential energy output from biomass accounts to approximately 32 million tons oil equivalent per year Mtoe/ y, whereas the total recoverable bioenergy potential is estimated to be about 16.92 Mtoe (Balat et al., 2006). Turkey has the highest gross and technical hydropower potential in Europe which is estimated around 216 TWh/year while the economic potential for hydropower capacity and electricity output have been estimated as 45 GW and 140 TWh/year, respectively (Erdogdu, 2011; Kucukali and Baris, 2009; Kose, 2007). The current utilization of geothermal energy in Turkey is very limited, of which 105 GWh/ year is used for electricity generation and 4465 GWh/year is used directly, all of which contributes to only 3% of the total geothermal potential of Turkey (Yarbay et al., 2011; Kose, 2007). On the other side, in Europe, World Energy Assessment (WEA) estimates the technical renewable energy potential at the European regional scale around 40,000 PJ/year which is almost twice the present electricity consumption and 75% of the current heat consumption. This potential is able to supply 62% of the current primary energy consumption in Europe. The distribution of renewable energy potential and use differs widely such that approximately 80% of the existing hydropower potential and 50% of the biomass potential is already used-up while the remaining available resources are hardly exploited. This paper will assess the renewable energy capacity of Turkey in order to consider main priorities in the energy policy of Turkey. In this paper, renewable energy potential and regulatory conditions are discussed in Turkey in comparison with European Union. Based on the given data in enviroGRIDS project, the projection of the renewable energy potential in
Turkey, the analysis will be carried out in the scope of the result of projections in the project.
2. Evaluation of the renewable energy capacity for Turkey Total electricity generation in Turkey was 229,395 GWh in 2011. Hydropower (as renewable) is the main indigenous source for electricity production and represented 23% (52,339 GWh) of total generation in 2011. Geothermal capacity of Turkey is considered as 31.500 MWt and 78% of this capacity is in Western Anatolia which results in an electricity potential of 1500 MWe. Additionally, biodiesel production capacity in current facilities is 561.217 ton/year. As it is estimated, this production capacity is going to be increased to 1.2 million ton/ year biodiesel and 0.7 million ton/year bioethanol based on ¨ z, 2013). 2.7 million hectare agricultural land (O Renewable energy generation except for hydropower constituted only 2.6% of the total generation, wind power constituting the 2% while geothermal and renewable waste constituted less than 1%. The total installed capacity reached 52,911 MW, of which 19,106 MW is the renewable capacity hydropower constituting 32% of the total capacity. The share of renewables (hydro included) in the energy generation was 25%. The energy generation projection by primary sources according to the ‘‘Turkish Electrical Energy 10-Year Generation Capacity Projection Plan (2011–2020)’’ published by the Turkish Electricity Transmission Company is given in Fig. 1. The solar and wind atlases prepared for Turkey are shown in Fig. 2. Fig. 2a indicates the map of total solar radiation in Turkey (URL 1) where Fig. 2b indicates wind map of Turkey. Table 1 also indicates the potential amounts of energy related to Turkish wind map as the legend of the map presented in Fig. 2b (WES, 2003). To identify the promising areas, the regions more than 1620 kWh/m2.year radiation have been identified to sustain a potential of solar energy. After the Renewable Energy law came into force in 2005, 80 new wind power projects with 2887 MW installed power have been given license. After the completion of construction of those wind energy power plants, total installed capacity is estimated to be 1000 MW (Tu¨kenmez and Demireli, 2012). On the other hand, the total potential of approximately 5738 TWh/year is larger than the current and future electricity demand of around 3500–4000 TWh/year of the EU countries (URL 2). The potential is calculated by taking into account different renewable energy resources for power generation, i.e. – Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants in Southern Europe and MENA, Photovoltaic Power (PV), Wind Speed (Onshore and Offshore Wind Power Plants), Hydropower Potentials from Dams and River-Run-Off Plants, Heat from Deep Hot Dry Rocks (Geothermal Power), Biomass from Municipal and Agricultural Waste and Wood, Wave and Tidal Power. The share of renewable energy in EU is shown in Table 2 (URL 3). In the renewable energy mix of Europe, biomass and waste, accounted for just over two thirds (65.5%) of primary renewables production in 2012. Hydropower was the following contributor to the renewable energy mix by a 16.2% of the total and output of wind energy accounted for 10.0% of the EU-28’s renewable energy produced in 2012.
Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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300000
250000 Lignite Hard Coal Generaon in GWh
200000
Imported Coal Natural Gas
150000
Geothermal Fuel Oil Motorin
100000
Total Thermal Renewable Waste Hydropower
50000
0 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Years
Fig. 1 – Turkish electrical energy 10-year generation capacity projection plan (2011–2020).
3.
Methodology
The approach for solar and wind potential estimation for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 is based on the collection, assessment and analysis of extended information in the environment of a geographic information system. The assumptions for the analysis are that the potential is identified as intersection of both factors – the favorable environmental conditions (high wind speeds and solar irradiation) and the lack of constraints (protected areas, water bodies, etc.) for the construction of facilities. Forecasts for energy demand by 2050 for Turkey were developed based on linear modeling. The used software products were predominantly open source (GRASS and Quantum GIS), and the proprietary ArcGIS Desktop, which was used for its visualization capabilities. The main data, used for assessing the renewable energy potential in Turkey, were obtained from Turkish State Meteorological Service. Stated data were daily recorded at 10 m height (10 year period including the years 2000 and 2009) at 41 meteorological observation stations. The data include maximum and average wind speed, maximum and minimum temperature, solar intensity, total precipitation, and global solar radiation. The data for the wind potential was extracted from the Wind Energy Potential Atlas (WEPA) of Turkey (Du¨ndar et al., 2002), WEPA has been produced through running of 3 different numerical air analysis models (global scale, mesoscale and micro scale) consecutively. Global air archive data, data from meteorological stations, digital
satellite images, digital topographical models and off shore meteorological data were used to run these models. The method used for mapping the meteorological data included power density calculation, intersection with barriers and choice of suitable areas. Spatial Interpolations Method for mapping meteorological data along the Black Sea cost is applied. The performances of Second Degree Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW2), spatial interpolation method were used in GIS software for presenting the point source data as raster surfaces. The model for solar power potential assessment was produced with the ‘‘ESRI Solar Radiation Model’’ used in GIS and the following basic parameters were considered:
Slope-Shadow Calculations: 500 m 5000 m resolution Numerical Height Model generated from 1/100.000 scale topographical maps was used. Areas at 36–42 Degrees Longitude. Sky Size Index. Zenith and Azimuth angles at 32 directions. Open and Close Sky Calculation Methods. Solar measurements data taken by Ministry of Energy and Turkish State Meteorological Service (DMI) stations in the period from 1985 to 2006 was used for the calculation of parameters used in the model and calibration of the model. Transmittivity and Diffuse Proportion. Surface Albedo.
Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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Fig. 2 – (a) Solar atlas of Turkey (URL 1) and (b) wind atlas of Turkey (WES, 2003).
4. Energy generation capacity forecast in Turkey
25% increase in the population by the year of 2050 will make unavoidable a much higher energy demand.
4.2. 4.1.
Demand forecast for 2020–2050
Population forecast
The basic criteria for the energy demand forecast is the population forecast, as shown in the Table 3. The forecast was done for each region of Turkey separately, in order to reflect the specific parameters of the processes. It is expected that a
Based on the ‘‘Turkish Electrical Energy 10-Year Generation Capacity Projection Plan (2009–2018)’’ two scenarios (high demand and low demand) were developed for the period 2020– 2050. The demand series with the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) relied on the recession of 2% of the electrical
Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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Table 1 – Potential amounts of energy related to Turkish wind map. Class 1 2 3 4
Area (km2)
Potential energy (MW)
0 5038 168,759 370,767
0 1662 41,656 44,659
Overall
taking in consideration, that the energy share in the GDP in Turkey seems considerably high (Table 5).
4.3.
87,977
energy demand in 2009, and as a consequence, a lower increase in energy demand was expected for the years 2010 and 2011. First scenario was developed as a linear forecast, based on the high scenario of the 10-year plan (TYP) which seems very optimistic and certainly will demonstrate the serious investments and construction efforts necessary for its implementation. Forecasts for high demand scenario are represented in Table 4. Second scenario was developed as a polynomial function, based on the low scenario of the TYP. This plan seems to require an effort in the decrease of the energy share in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which seems a logical step,
Generation capacity forecast
The results obtained from the modeling studies (EnviroGRIDS, 2012) showed that high demand forecast requires a power generation capacity to increase more than five times its present value of 45,000 MW and to reach the amount of 235,800 MW. The projections of high demand scenario that includes nuclear stations, lignite and coal, gas and oil, hydrostations, wind and solar technologies was shown in Table 6. Nuclear power is going to be a new source of energy for Turkey, but for a country with a considerable energy growth expectation, this will be a significant power generation technology. Following a difficult beginning with about 3000 MW till 2020, an ambitious program should be developed in order to reach 30,000 MW in 2050, which is equal to 13% of the total capacity. As it is presented in Table 6, it is forecasted that the nuclear plant generation gradually will increase its share in the total production from 4 to 13%. Lignite and coal power generating units are basic for the system and their constant growth is expected in the period in
Table 2 – Share of renewable energy in the EU countries (URL 3). Primary production 2002
2012
1000 toe Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Croatia Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden United Kingdom EU-28
576 832 1594 1991 10,783 568 261 1393 6894 15,025 757 9249 45 1575 773 38 877 1 1618 6491 4141 3552 3749 715 744 7826 13,123 2566 97,757
Share of total, 2012 Solar energy
Biomass and waste
Geothermal energy
Hydropower
Wind energy
83.3 69.4 87.2 70.1 72.3 96.1 43.0 53.3 41.7 66.4 62.6 36.7 21.2 85.9 92.8 78.9 89.9 63.9 86.9 56.2 92.8 63.3 75.4 60.5 72.0 85.0 59.0 66.2 65.5
0.2 2.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.1 0.9 0.6 27.7 1.4 0.0 0.3 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 3.1 0.4 3.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
1.1 16.9 5.6 0.0 5.5 0.3 9.3 16.6 12.2 24.3 33.8 19.2 0.0 13.7 3.0 8.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 39.1 2.1 11.1 19.8 33.8 24.6 14.6 36.7 6.4 16.2
8.4 6.4 1.1 28.4 13.2 3.5 46.3 14.6 29.4 6.2 2.4 6.4 15.0 0.4 3.9 6.8 3.4 0.0 11.3 2.2 4.8 20.2 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.3 23.7 10.0
% 2816 1638 3247 3114 32,913 1056 744 2275 14,488 20,766 1181 17,894 106 2331 1198 94 1965 6 3779 9623 8478 4358 5242 990 1434 9931 18,508 7095 177,270
7.1 5.2 6.1 1.2 8.6 0.0 1.4 14.5 16.6 2.0 0.6 9.9 62.5 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.3 36.1 1.3 2.1 0.2 2.3 0.0 2.4 2.9 0.0 0.1 3.6 5.1
Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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Table 3 – Population forecasts by region. Forecast
2020
2030
2040
2050
South-Eastern Anatolia Mediterranean East Anatolia Central and West Anatolia Aegean Marmara Black Sea Istanbul
8,025,700 9,464,100 6,242,700 13,586,900 10,433,400 10,032,100 9,229,600 13,242,500
8,687,500 9,810,200 6,323,100 15,141,700 11,293,800 10,859,400 9,990,600 14,768,700
9,349,300 10,090,000 6,337,400 16,762,600 12,154,100 11,686,600 10,751,700 16,361,300
10,011,100 10,303,700 6,385,500 18,449,700 13,014,400 12,513,900 11,512,800 17,919,900
Total
80,257,000
86,875,000
93,493,000
100,111,000
*Envirogrids, 2012.
Table 4 – High demand forecast for the period 2010–2050. Year Items High demand forecast, GWh Annual increase Peak, MW – high demand
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
202,730
288,300 7.3% 44,400
408,958 7.2% 63,000
511,198 4.6% 78,750
613,437 3.7% 94,500
736,125 3.7% 113,400
858,812 3.1% 132,300
987,634 2.8% 152,145
1,116,456 2.5% 171,990
31,246
order to reach about 39,000 MW of capacities in 2050. As it is presented in Table 6, the share of electricity generation seems stable 22–25% for the whole period. The expenses linked to the CO2 emissions are the basic restriction for an even greater development of the coal and lignite units. The ratio between lignite and coal is about 60:40 in 2010, but coal utilization will progress faster and at the end the installed capacities are expected to be equal. Combined cycle generation turbines (CCGT) are the backbone of the system, forming 25% of the total installed capacity and more than 30% of the generation (50,400 MW). Peak gas turbines will reach the considerable capacity of 18,000 MW, mainly serving as a reserve. Solar and especially wind generation capacities have a lower reliability and this will require the reserve power generation capacity share to be
increased. Load factor of the gas turbines will be not higher than 2500 h/year and energy production 2–4% of the total. Hydrostations require high investment and are vulnerable to climatic (hydrological) and ecological influences. Dam stations are major sources of peak energy and their amount is expected to grow to reach about 24,000 MW in 2050. Running-water stations substantially will increase their volume to reach 12,500 MW in 2050. Although the share of hydro stations is decreasing, their role in the total balance is of very high importance, as dominant capacities to cover the peak. Wind and solar generation is the major decision goal as previously outlined. The technology development is expected to be the major factor stimulating the growth of RES capacities. Solar capacities will start their implementation significantly
Table 5 – Low demand forecast for the period 2010–2050. Year Items Low demand forecast, GWh Annual increase Peak, MW – low demand
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
202,730
277,200 6.5% 42,700
377,305 6.4% 51,800
433,901 2.8% 58,000
490,496 2.5% 75,400
539,546 1.9% 90,480
588,596 1.8% 99,528
618,025 1.0% 99,528
647,455 0.9% 99,528
31,246
Table 6 – Capacity forecasts by plant type, MW. Year Item
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Nuclear stations Lignite and coal Gas and oil Hydro stations Wind Solar Other Total Peak, MW – high demand Reserve
0 10,650 16,850 16,400 750 0 350 45,000 31,246 30.6%
3000 16,300 29,400 23,080 3400 200 1650 77,050 63,000 18.2%
10,000 21,500 42,100 29,580 9400 9200 2250 124,050 94,500 23.8%
20,000 30,300 55,300 33,100 14,750 24,200 2250 179,900 133,245 25.9%
30,000 39,100 68,550 36,600 20,100 39,200 2250 235,800 171,990 27.1%
Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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Fig. 3 – The wind energy potential in the study area.
after 2020 in order to gain speed and at the end of the period to reach 7% of the total generation. The solar and wind energy potential were produced by using the mapping methodology as given in Figs. 3 and 4. Investment expenses are expected to drop down from 2000 to 900 EUR/MW, but with the increase of the wind generation amount the simulation model results in a load factor decrease from 2400 to 2000 h/year.
The reserve margin is allocated for covering the serious lack of reserves in the power generating system. The shortage in the power generation can be covered by import, which is an achievable task, having in mind the existing interconnections with the neighboring countries. The simulation model showed that at least 20–25% of reserves are considered adequate in order to ensure the stability of the system.
Fig. 4 – The solar energy potential in the study area. Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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Fig. 5 – Monthly distribution in 2050 (high demand scenario).
Considering the capacities and the high demand scenario, the simulation model showed a scenario covering the energy balance month by month (Fig. 5). The long repairs and fuel charging in nuclear stations were usually scheduled in months with a lower demand (April, May, September, and October). Solar stations had a significant production in summer months, while wind production, which is considered most unreliable, was distributed statistically. Coal and lignite units had a nearly uniform production, while CCGT production was dominating to cover about 40% of the total generation. Simple gas turbines had an important role for regulation, so their production varies significantly throughout the year. In this scenario the monthly balances seem more even. Solar production plays a significant role in the summer, while
wind is distributed statistically. In some months gas turbines production exceeds the normal peak production (see Fig. 6). The results of the study implemented within the framework of EnviroGRIDS Project include forecasts on the development of solar potential utilization for residential and commercial consumption. The results have shown that the solar power potential utilization is significant after 2020. The projections for 2050 indicate that electricity consumption from small and medium renewable energy sources including solar and wind will constitute 15% of the total, whereas the solar thermal will constitute around 16%. Geothermal and other renewables will remain around 3%. According to the high demand scenario, in 2050 the share of hydropower in overall electricity generation will be 12%, followed by solar power at 7% and wind power at 3% (EnviroGRIDS, 2012).
Fig. 6 – Monthly distribution in 2050 (low demand scenario). Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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5. Renewable energy policy and regulations in Turkey and in EU The main purpose of the energy policy should rely on the fulfillment of the energy demands created by the growing population and as a sequence by the growing economy, in a consistent, qualified and secure manner. In this context, the main point of the energy supply plan and program is to provide the required energy, at low cost, timely and uninterrupted. The renewable energy policy in Turkey is rather young but aimed to set strategic goals for implementation of renewable energy in Turkey. Law on Utilization of Renewable Energy Resources for the Purpose of Generating Electrical Energy was first enacted on 18.05.2005. Following this law, certain regulations were enacted and amendments have been made over time. The long awaited amendments to Turkey’s renewable energy regime were enacted on 8 January 2011. Following this, the Ministry of Energy and Natural Sources and Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) has promulgated regulations for the implementation of the recent amendments to the Law on Utilization of Renewable Energy Resources for the Purpose of Generating Electrical Energy (Renewable Energy Law). These regulations are; (i) Regulation on Certification and Support of Renewable Energy Sources (Regulation on Renewable Energy Support Mechanism), promulgated by EMRA effective from July 21, 2011, and (ii) Regulation on Domestic Manufacturing of Components used in Renewable Energy Electricity Generation Facilities (Regulation on Domestic Components), promulgated by the Ministry of Energy effective from June 19, 2011. These regulations implement the renewable energy support mechanism which encompasses the various incentives provided in the Renewable Energy Law such as the feed-in tariffs (the Support Mechanism), incremental price incentives for generators that use certain domestically manufactured mechanical and electromechanical components in their projects and the certification process for opting into such Support Mechanism. These incentives are described in Table 7 (URL 4). Feed-in Tariff incentives are valid for a period of 10 years for (i) power generators that utilize the renewables defined in the Regulation on Renewable Energy Support Mechanism and commence operations between May 18, 2005 and December 31, 2015 and (ii) license-exempt renewable energy generators through the retailers operating in the same region. The incremental price incentives apply only to projects that commence operations before December 31, 2015 and which have opted into the Support Mechanism, and they are available for five years after a project commences operations.
The domestic component price incentives require submission of a ‘‘domestic manufacturing certificate’’ attesting to the domestic origin of the relevant component, and a ‘‘product certificate’’ to be prepared by a national accreditation agency recognized by the International Accreditation Forum. The renewable energy goals of Turkey are described in a number of strategy papers, which form the basis for the expected trends discussed in the 2010 to 2014 Strategic Plan published by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, and Electrical Energy Market and Supply Security Strategy Paper issued in May 2009 (URL 5). Stated strategic plan addresses three main energy policy concerns: Energy supply security, regional and global influence in the area of energy and environment protection. According to the 2010–2014 Strategic Plan, in 2015, installed wind energy power will be 10,000 MW and installed geothermal energy power will be 300 MW. The Electricity Energy Supply and Security Strategy Paper sets out more comprehensive and ambitious targets including the share of renewable energy based generation to 30% of the overall generation (URL 5). Renewable targets set out in the Energy Strategy Paper are; (i) 30% of total electricity production from renewable energy until 2023, (ii) the whole economically usable hydropower potential of Turkey will be provided for generating electrical energy until 2023, (iii) 600 MW geothermal energy will be implemented by 2023, and (iv) 20,000 MW wind energy will be ¸ etin, 2011; MENR, 2010). in operation in 2023 (Saygin and C Achieving the renewable energy targets in 2023 is estimated to require investment in the renewable energy generation around 80 billion TL (6 billion TL/year) which will require some additional forms of financing. More than 3.5 billion dollars of loans and finance have been provided for renewable energy investments in Turkey since 2005, almost all of which were financed through of World Bank (IFC) and/or by local banks. Financing is seen as the most important barrier in achieving the renewable energy targets set out in the strategy papers. Government’s first energy policy concern is providing sufficient energy for growing Turkish economy. Energy diplomacy with supplier countries is one of the most important issue of Turkey’s policy, since Turkey imports all of its oil and gas supplies. At this point one of the main aims of the Turkish energy strategy is to ensure the energy supply security. For providing such a security, an increase in the diversity of the energy resources (in particularly domestic resources) is targeted. An increase in the share of renewable energy resources is also considered as a strategy ensuring the energy supply together with making the free market conditions operate fully (Tu¨kenmez and Demireli, 2012).
Table 7 – Renewable energy support mechanism (URL 4). Type of renewable energy Hydropower Wind Solar (PV) Solar (concentrated) Biomass Geothermal
Feed-in tariff (USD/MWh)
Max. domestic component incentive (USD/MWh)
Maximum total price for power output (USD/MWh)
73 73 133 92 133 105
23 37 133 200 56 27
96 110 67 225 189 132
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The second policy concern is the regional and global influence in energy field. For this policy, Turkey aims to play a main role as a hub and terminal for oil and gas transfer from Caspian region and Middle East to markets at west. In the electricity sector, Turkey has taken steps to create competitive wholesale and retail markets and aims to open the market for all customers by 2015 (IEA, 2010). The Turkish government primarily targets to increase the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation to at least 30% while decreasing the share of natural gas below 30%. In this context, the Turkish government has planned to make the required changes in the related law to fully utilize economically feasible hydropower potential in electricity generation, fully utilize economically feasible wind energy potential in electricity generation, provide full utilization of economically feasible geothermal energy potential of 600 MW and encourage and expand the utilization of solar energy for electricity generation until 2023. For the achievement of these targets, an increase of the installed capacities of hydropower and wind power plants to 20,000 and 19,200 MW is estimated for the next 15 years. The renewable energy policy of the EU started with the adoption of the 1997 White Paper (EC, 2011a, 1997). The main motivations in the formulation of renewable energy policy of the EU were to address the need to de-carbonise the energy production and the increasing dependency on fossil fuel imports from politically unstable regions outside the EU (DCENR, 2012). The promotion of renewable energy through indicative targets for the electricity and transport sectors was followed by the definition of legally binding targets supported by a comprehensive legislative framework, and most recently, by policies that facilitate renewable energy growth (ECRB, 2011; EC, 2001). The renewable energy directive, implemented by the Member States (MS) sets ambitious targets for all MS, aiming to reach a 20% share of energy from renewable sources by 2020 and a 10% share of renewable energy specifically in the transport sector in the EU (URL 6). The directive also improves the legal framework for promoting renewable electricity, requires national action plans that establish pathways for the development of renewable energy sources including bioenergy, creates cooperation mechanisms to help achieve the targets cost effectively and establishes the sustainability criteria for biofuels. The renewable energy directive (Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources) was published as part of the Climate-Energy Legislative Package adopted by the Council on 6th April 2009 by amending and subsequently repealing Directive 2001/77/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 September 2001 on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market and 2003/30/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 8 May 2003 on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport, aims to establish a common framework for the production and promotion of energy from renewable sources. The communication from the EC published on 31.1.2011, summarizes the progress toward the 2020 target of the renewable energy strategy (EC, 2011b). It was reported that
the non-binding 2010 targets for the share of renewable energy in the electricity and transport sectors of the MS were not met, however it is expected that the MS will all meet their legally binding 2020 targets according to their national plans submitted in 2010. A substantial increase in the financing of renewables, which is expected to be received mainly from the private sector, is foreseen to reach the 2020 targets apart from implementing the national action plans. The financial instruments to aid in reducing renewable energy costs include capital supports, i.e. grants, loans and loan guarantees equity funds and production aids, i.e. feed in tariffs, premiums, quota/certificate schemes, fiscal incentives and tenders. The need for provide a stable investment climate, without any retroactive changes to discourage investment emphasized in the recent recommendations of the EC to MS. The Commission also encourages the coordination of renewable energy support schemes and use of the cooperation mechanisms which are means of allowing MS to benefit from trade of renewable energy while being able to still maintain control over their national support schemes and the achievement of their national targets. Cooperation mechanisms include statistical transfers, joint projects and joint support schemes (EC, 2011c). In the period 2007–2009, the EU financial support given to renewables was roughly s9.8 bn (s3.26 bn/a), the bulk of which was in the form of loans from the European Investment Bank, while other sources included the European Economic Recovery Plan, the ‘‘Intelligent Energy Europe’’ Program, which co-funds analysis and policy research in renewable energy, EU Structural and Cohesion Funds which were allocated by MS to projects and demonstrations of renewable energy, the EU R&D Framework Program, the EIP GIF in the form of venture capital or loan guarantees, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development which granted SEI loans (EC, 2011c). On the contrary to EU, the constant feed-in tariff amount does not consider capital investments of specific energy sources in Turkey that brings disadvantage to the implementation. New regulations published and currently applied should be accepted as milestones in acquisition period of Turkey in EU. Another limitation for the utilization of renewable energy sources in Turkey is that most of the equipment are supplied from foreign countries. Since this is a cost-increasing factor, some new policies are needed for the promotion of the equipment manufacturing especially for wind and solar plants.
6.
Conclusion
Turkey is considered as one of the fastest growing markets in the world for the last twenty years. However, this growth pace is heavily dependent on imported energy, which is relatively expensive and hence possess a significant concern on sustainability of the national energy management. Therefore, use of renewable energy sources is recognized as an important consideration as a part of the efforts in diversifying energy sources while increasing the environmental sustainability of the national energy supply system toward building a cleaner grid. This approach is facilitated by the fact that Turkey has a
Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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great geographical advantage increasing its potential on utilizing renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and geothermal. Turkey holds approximately 1% of the global hydropower potential hence the major renewable energy source currently being utilized is hydropower. However, when the currently addressed social and environmental impacts of hydroelectric power plants are considered, new strategies are required to be developed in order to avoid failure against higher expectations related to environmental sustainability and human rights from new hydropower schemes. Biomass is another important renewable energy supply in Turkey. Turkey’s long term plan to tap its large potential for renewable energy is included in the recently published Electricity Market and Security of Supply Strategy (2009) with an overall target to generate at least 30% of total electricity from renewables by 2023 where the European Renewable Energy Commission determined 45% clean and renewable energy use by 2030 as a common target for Europe. Turkey’s 2023 targets on energy field include putting 600 MW geothermal capacity, 3000 MW solar power capacity and 20,000 MW wind power capacity in operation. For achieving this target, the new regulation provides exemptions from license obligations for small-scale generators and reductions on license fees, encourages domestic investments for reducing the costs. It should be noted that the utilization of wind and solar irradiation for energy production is not only depending on the climate conditions, but also on the existing technological level and many other restrictive factors – geographical, economical, technical, regulatory, social, etc. The theoretical potential, especially of the solar irradiance, in Turkey is found at a very high level and unlimited, even from the point of view of the energy need. Intensive research is needed for the implementation of the innovative technology. The gradual development of the technologies for transformation, storage and control will raise the technological potential limit and will allow the rapid implementation of wind and solar projects in a degree, which up to 2050 will make RES the major component especially in the energy balance of the Black Sea countries. The regulatory framework is another important factor, together with the technological progress, which can stimulate the implementation of renewable energy. It should be noted that the regulatory framework does not include enough incentives for the support of the small units, covering own consumption, as well as for the heat production from solar radiation. In this context, following items are considered as the main priorities in the energy policy of Turkey:
Supporting local production: for equipment such as wind terminals, and solar energy panels. Providing diversity of resources by giving priority to local resources hence promoting local markets. Encouraging use of solar energy: a progressive improvement target is formulated (37% share for solar power by 2100). Increasing demand on renewable energy. Providing resource diversity in oil and natural gas and taking precautions to minimize risks based on imports.
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Carrying out energy activities considering the environmental dimension. Introducing Turkey as an energy corridor and an important station. Increasing energy efficiency. Making energy available to consumers in a cost efficient, timely manner meeting the demand. Improving the investment environment and supporting free market strategy. All these priorities have been encouraged by different regulations and incentives implemented. Beside the incentives, some revisions and/or restructuring of regulations related to environmental issues are needed to minimize the environmental effects of renewable energy applications.
Acknowledgements This paper is a part of the work conducted in EnviroGRIDS Project. The authors would like to acknowledge the European Commission ‘‘Seventh Framework Program’’ that funded the EnviroGRIDS Project (Grant Agreement no. 227640).
references
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http://www.enerji.gov.tr/yayinlar_raporlar_EN/ ETKB_2010_2014_Stratejik_Plani_EN.pdf (last accessed on 20.08.14). URL 6, Renewable energy, Targets by 2020, official website of EC. http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/targets_en.htm (last accessed on 20.08.14). WES, 2003. Wind Energy Estimation System. T.R. Ministry of Environment and Forest State Meteorology Administration, Ankara, p. 19. Yarbay, R.Z., Gu¨ler, A.S¸., Yaman, E., 2011. Renewable energy sources and policies in Turkey. In: 6th International Advanced Technologies Symposium (IATS’11), Elazˇˇ ig˘, Turkey, 16–18 May 2011. Senem Teksoy Basaran Senem Teksoy Bas¸aran is an Environmental Engineer with a PhD degree on Environmental Biotechnology. She has spent over 10 years at Istanbul Technical University (ITU) working on various European Union funded international environmental projects (FP 6, FP7 and MEDA) basically on Water and Energy Management as a researcher and Project Assistant, parallel to her academic studies at ITU Environmental Engineering Department. She is also an expert on climate change, energy management, GHG inventory preparation and GHG emission reduction projects. She is currently working as lead tutor at British Standards Institute. ¨ zgu¨r Dog˘ru is a research Ahmet Ozgur Dogru Assist. Prof. Dr. A. O associate in Geomatics Engineering Department of the Istanbul Technical University (ITU) in Turkey. He did researches on cartography, data modeling, database design and model generalization in the Geography Department of Ghent University, Belgium and COGIT Laboratory of National Geographic Institute of France (Institut Geographique National – IGN France) for 6 and 12 months respectively as guest PhD researcher. He completed his PhD thesis on Cartographic Approaches for Designing Car Navigation Maps by Using Multiple Representational Databases in 2009. He was involved several projects three of them supported by EU Framework Program. Filiz Bektas¸ Balcˇ¸ˇ ik Filiz BEKTAS BALCIK received Ph.D. degree in Geomatics Engineering from Istanbul Technical University, in 2010. She did a part of her PhD research at International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Natural Resource Department, in the Netherlands while she was a Huygens Nuffic PhD Scholar (2 years). Currently, she is an associated professor at the department of Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, ITU, Istanbul. Her research interests include remote sensing applications on land use land cover change detection, urbanization, forestry, and biophysical and biochemical characteristics of savanna vegetation (in the South Africa), hyper spectral imaging. Necla Ulugtekin Prof. Dr. N. Necla ULUGTEKIN is a senior lecturer in the Cartography Division of Department of Geodesy and Photogrammetry in Istanbul Technical University – ITU. Her main interests recently are cartography, map design, cartographic visualization, small display cartographic design and Spatial Data/ Information communication. She was involved in a number of individual and team studies and projects on Electronic Atlas, Mountain Maps, Map Design for Hand Held Devices, etc. Cigdem Goksel Dr. Cigdem GOKSEL is currently working as an Assoc. Prof. at the Istanbul Technical University (ITU), Faculty of Civil Engineering Department of Geomatic Engineering. She received her B.Sc.in 1984, M.Sc. in 1989 and Ph.D. degree in 1996 from ITU. She was visiting scholar at Murray State University’s MidAmerica Remote Sensing Center (Geosciences) KY–USA in 1999. Her main research areas are monitoring landuse landcover change
Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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and remote sensing and GIS integration for the environmental studies. She has more than 90 scientific publications related with different remote sensing applications. Seval So¨zen Dr. Seval So¨zen is professor at Istanbul Technical University (ITU), Department of Environmental Engineering. She received her Ph.D. degree in 1995 in the field of Environmental Engineering at ITU. Dr. So¨zen has 28 years of teaching and
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research experience in the field of Environmental Science and Technology. Her research area focuses on industrial pollution control, waste management and modeling. She has directed and supervised numerous research studies and projects on environmental biotechnology, industrial pollution control and integrated water management. She holds a long list of scientific publications with over 100 papers, which received more than 800 citations.
Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envsci
Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union Senem Teksoy Basaran a, A. Ozgur Dogru b,*, Filiz Bektas Balcik b, N. Necla Ulugtekin b, Cigdem Goksel b, Seval Sozen a a
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Environmental Engineering Department, Istanbul Technical University, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey b Faculty of Civil Engineering, Geomatics Engineering Department, Istanbul Technical University, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey
article info
abstract
Keywords:
This paper aims to assess the renewable energy capacity of Turkey in order to consider main
Renewable energy
priorities in the energy policy of Turkey. In this paper, renewable energy potential and
Renewable sources
regulatory conditions are discussed in Turkey in comparison with European Union. The
Energy policy
results of the study implemented within the framework of EnviroGRIDS project indicated a
Energy potential
promising yet very susceptible future for the implementation of renewable energy power plants in Turkey. The forecasts have shown that the solar power potential utilization is becoming more significant after 2020. The projections for 2050 indicate that electricity consumption from small and medium renewable energy sources including solar and wind will constitute 15% of the total, whereas the solar thermal will constitute around 16%. Geothermal and other renewables will remain around 3%. According to the high demand scenario, in 2050 the share of hydropower in overall electricity generation will be 12%, followed by solar power at 7% and wind power at 3%. Additionally, renewable energy policy and regulations in Turkey and in EU are overviewed in this study. On the contrary to EU, the constant feed-in tariff amount does not consider capital investments of specific energy sources in Turkey that brings disadvantage to the implementation. However, new regulations published and currently applied should be accepted as milestones in acquisition period of Turkey in EU. # 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1.
Introduction
Renewable energy sources enable countries both meeting domestic energy requirements and protecting the environment with zero or almost zero emissions of both air pollutants
and greenhouse gases. Turkey has a favorable geographical position which results in having a good renewable energy. Turkey with totally 1778 km of border to Black Sea is divided in to 81 administrative provinces in seven geographical regions. Since the Black Sea Catchment was selected as the study area of the EnviroGRIDS project, only 41 provinces of Turkey were
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +90 5359261211; fax: +90 2122853414. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (S.T. Basaran), [email protected], [email protected] (A.O. Dogru), [email protected] (F.B. Balcik), [email protected] (N.N. Ulugtekin), [email protected] (C. Goksel), [email protected] (S. Sozen). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016 1462-9011/# 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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completely or partially covered in this study. Provinces completely covered are mostly located in Black Sea and Marmara Regions along the Black Sea Cost of Turkey whereas partially covered provinces are located in Marmara, Aegean, Central Anatolia and Eastern Anatolia Regions. Turkey lies in a sunny belt between 36N and 42N latitudes. The yearly average solar radiation is 3.6 kWh/m2 day and average sunshine duration is 2640 h, corresponding to around 30% of the year. Theoretical technical solar potential, unconstrained by technical, economic or environmental requirements of Turkey was cited in official publications to be not more than 1% or 88 Mtoe/year, 40% of which was considered economically usable. Three-fourths (24.4 Mtoe/year) of the economically usable potential is considered suitable for thermal use, with the remaining (8.8 Mtoe/year) for electricity production (Ertekin et al., 2008). Solar power potential assessment for the national ‘‘solar atlas’’ was produced with the ‘‘ESRI Solar Radiation Model’’ used in GIS. The solar atlas presents the solar radiation and sunshine hours are calculated for 57 cities of Turkey. It is estimated that Turkey’s technical wind energy potential is 88 GW and economical potential is approximately 10 GW depending on the technical condition. The wind atlas prepared by the General Directorate of Renewable Energies reported that, Turkey’s technical wind energy potential was 83 GW and production potential was 166 TWh/year. However, Turkey’s total installed wind capacity was only 2800 MW in 2010. The potential energy output from biomass accounts to approximately 32 million tons oil equivalent per year Mtoe/ y, whereas the total recoverable bioenergy potential is estimated to be about 16.92 Mtoe (Balat et al., 2006). Turkey has the highest gross and technical hydropower potential in Europe which is estimated around 216 TWh/year while the economic potential for hydropower capacity and electricity output have been estimated as 45 GW and 140 TWh/year, respectively (Erdogdu, 2011; Kucukali and Baris, 2009; Kose, 2007). The current utilization of geothermal energy in Turkey is very limited, of which 105 GWh/ year is used for electricity generation and 4465 GWh/year is used directly, all of which contributes to only 3% of the total geothermal potential of Turkey (Yarbay et al., 2011; Kose, 2007). On the other side, in Europe, World Energy Assessment (WEA) estimates the technical renewable energy potential at the European regional scale around 40,000 PJ/year which is almost twice the present electricity consumption and 75% of the current heat consumption. This potential is able to supply 62% of the current primary energy consumption in Europe. The distribution of renewable energy potential and use differs widely such that approximately 80% of the existing hydropower potential and 50% of the biomass potential is already used-up while the remaining available resources are hardly exploited. This paper will assess the renewable energy capacity of Turkey in order to consider main priorities in the energy policy of Turkey. In this paper, renewable energy potential and regulatory conditions are discussed in Turkey in comparison with European Union. Based on the given data in enviroGRIDS project, the projection of the renewable energy potential in
Turkey, the analysis will be carried out in the scope of the result of projections in the project.
2. Evaluation of the renewable energy capacity for Turkey Total electricity generation in Turkey was 229,395 GWh in 2011. Hydropower (as renewable) is the main indigenous source for electricity production and represented 23% (52,339 GWh) of total generation in 2011. Geothermal capacity of Turkey is considered as 31.500 MWt and 78% of this capacity is in Western Anatolia which results in an electricity potential of 1500 MWe. Additionally, biodiesel production capacity in current facilities is 561.217 ton/year. As it is estimated, this production capacity is going to be increased to 1.2 million ton/ year biodiesel and 0.7 million ton/year bioethanol based on ¨ z, 2013). 2.7 million hectare agricultural land (O Renewable energy generation except for hydropower constituted only 2.6% of the total generation, wind power constituting the 2% while geothermal and renewable waste constituted less than 1%. The total installed capacity reached 52,911 MW, of which 19,106 MW is the renewable capacity hydropower constituting 32% of the total capacity. The share of renewables (hydro included) in the energy generation was 25%. The energy generation projection by primary sources according to the ‘‘Turkish Electrical Energy 10-Year Generation Capacity Projection Plan (2011–2020)’’ published by the Turkish Electricity Transmission Company is given in Fig. 1. The solar and wind atlases prepared for Turkey are shown in Fig. 2. Fig. 2a indicates the map of total solar radiation in Turkey (URL 1) where Fig. 2b indicates wind map of Turkey. Table 1 also indicates the potential amounts of energy related to Turkish wind map as the legend of the map presented in Fig. 2b (WES, 2003). To identify the promising areas, the regions more than 1620 kWh/m2.year radiation have been identified to sustain a potential of solar energy. After the Renewable Energy law came into force in 2005, 80 new wind power projects with 2887 MW installed power have been given license. After the completion of construction of those wind energy power plants, total installed capacity is estimated to be 1000 MW (Tu¨kenmez and Demireli, 2012). On the other hand, the total potential of approximately 5738 TWh/year is larger than the current and future electricity demand of around 3500–4000 TWh/year of the EU countries (URL 2). The potential is calculated by taking into account different renewable energy resources for power generation, i.e. – Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants in Southern Europe and MENA, Photovoltaic Power (PV), Wind Speed (Onshore and Offshore Wind Power Plants), Hydropower Potentials from Dams and River-Run-Off Plants, Heat from Deep Hot Dry Rocks (Geothermal Power), Biomass from Municipal and Agricultural Waste and Wood, Wave and Tidal Power. The share of renewable energy in EU is shown in Table 2 (URL 3). In the renewable energy mix of Europe, biomass and waste, accounted for just over two thirds (65.5%) of primary renewables production in 2012. Hydropower was the following contributor to the renewable energy mix by a 16.2% of the total and output of wind energy accounted for 10.0% of the EU-28’s renewable energy produced in 2012.
Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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300000
250000 Lignite Hard Coal Generaon in GWh
200000
Imported Coal Natural Gas
150000
Geothermal Fuel Oil Motorin
100000
Total Thermal Renewable Waste Hydropower
50000
0 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Years
Fig. 1 – Turkish electrical energy 10-year generation capacity projection plan (2011–2020).
3.
Methodology
The approach for solar and wind potential estimation for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 is based on the collection, assessment and analysis of extended information in the environment of a geographic information system. The assumptions for the analysis are that the potential is identified as intersection of both factors – the favorable environmental conditions (high wind speeds and solar irradiation) and the lack of constraints (protected areas, water bodies, etc.) for the construction of facilities. Forecasts for energy demand by 2050 for Turkey were developed based on linear modeling. The used software products were predominantly open source (GRASS and Quantum GIS), and the proprietary ArcGIS Desktop, which was used for its visualization capabilities. The main data, used for assessing the renewable energy potential in Turkey, were obtained from Turkish State Meteorological Service. Stated data were daily recorded at 10 m height (10 year period including the years 2000 and 2009) at 41 meteorological observation stations. The data include maximum and average wind speed, maximum and minimum temperature, solar intensity, total precipitation, and global solar radiation. The data for the wind potential was extracted from the Wind Energy Potential Atlas (WEPA) of Turkey (Du¨ndar et al., 2002), WEPA has been produced through running of 3 different numerical air analysis models (global scale, mesoscale and micro scale) consecutively. Global air archive data, data from meteorological stations, digital
satellite images, digital topographical models and off shore meteorological data were used to run these models. The method used for mapping the meteorological data included power density calculation, intersection with barriers and choice of suitable areas. Spatial Interpolations Method for mapping meteorological data along the Black Sea cost is applied. The performances of Second Degree Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW2), spatial interpolation method were used in GIS software for presenting the point source data as raster surfaces. The model for solar power potential assessment was produced with the ‘‘ESRI Solar Radiation Model’’ used in GIS and the following basic parameters were considered:
Slope-Shadow Calculations: 500 m 5000 m resolution Numerical Height Model generated from 1/100.000 scale topographical maps was used. Areas at 36–42 Degrees Longitude. Sky Size Index. Zenith and Azimuth angles at 32 directions. Open and Close Sky Calculation Methods. Solar measurements data taken by Ministry of Energy and Turkish State Meteorological Service (DMI) stations in the period from 1985 to 2006 was used for the calculation of parameters used in the model and calibration of the model. Transmittivity and Diffuse Proportion. Surface Albedo.
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Fig. 2 – (a) Solar atlas of Turkey (URL 1) and (b) wind atlas of Turkey (WES, 2003).
4. Energy generation capacity forecast in Turkey
25% increase in the population by the year of 2050 will make unavoidable a much higher energy demand.
4.2. 4.1.
Demand forecast for 2020–2050
Population forecast
The basic criteria for the energy demand forecast is the population forecast, as shown in the Table 3. The forecast was done for each region of Turkey separately, in order to reflect the specific parameters of the processes. It is expected that a
Based on the ‘‘Turkish Electrical Energy 10-Year Generation Capacity Projection Plan (2009–2018)’’ two scenarios (high demand and low demand) were developed for the period 2020– 2050. The demand series with the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) relied on the recession of 2% of the electrical
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Table 1 – Potential amounts of energy related to Turkish wind map. Class 1 2 3 4
Area (km2)
Potential energy (MW)
0 5038 168,759 370,767
0 1662 41,656 44,659
Overall
taking in consideration, that the energy share in the GDP in Turkey seems considerably high (Table 5).
4.3.
87,977
energy demand in 2009, and as a consequence, a lower increase in energy demand was expected for the years 2010 and 2011. First scenario was developed as a linear forecast, based on the high scenario of the 10-year plan (TYP) which seems very optimistic and certainly will demonstrate the serious investments and construction efforts necessary for its implementation. Forecasts for high demand scenario are represented in Table 4. Second scenario was developed as a polynomial function, based on the low scenario of the TYP. This plan seems to require an effort in the decrease of the energy share in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which seems a logical step,
Generation capacity forecast
The results obtained from the modeling studies (EnviroGRIDS, 2012) showed that high demand forecast requires a power generation capacity to increase more than five times its present value of 45,000 MW and to reach the amount of 235,800 MW. The projections of high demand scenario that includes nuclear stations, lignite and coal, gas and oil, hydrostations, wind and solar technologies was shown in Table 6. Nuclear power is going to be a new source of energy for Turkey, but for a country with a considerable energy growth expectation, this will be a significant power generation technology. Following a difficult beginning with about 3000 MW till 2020, an ambitious program should be developed in order to reach 30,000 MW in 2050, which is equal to 13% of the total capacity. As it is presented in Table 6, it is forecasted that the nuclear plant generation gradually will increase its share in the total production from 4 to 13%. Lignite and coal power generating units are basic for the system and their constant growth is expected in the period in
Table 2 – Share of renewable energy in the EU countries (URL 3). Primary production 2002
2012
1000 toe Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Croatia Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden United Kingdom EU-28
576 832 1594 1991 10,783 568 261 1393 6894 15,025 757 9249 45 1575 773 38 877 1 1618 6491 4141 3552 3749 715 744 7826 13,123 2566 97,757
Share of total, 2012 Solar energy
Biomass and waste
Geothermal energy
Hydropower
Wind energy
83.3 69.4 87.2 70.1 72.3 96.1 43.0 53.3 41.7 66.4 62.6 36.7 21.2 85.9 92.8 78.9 89.9 63.9 86.9 56.2 92.8 63.3 75.4 60.5 72.0 85.0 59.0 66.2 65.5
0.2 2.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.1 0.9 0.6 27.7 1.4 0.0 0.3 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 3.1 0.4 3.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
1.1 16.9 5.6 0.0 5.5 0.3 9.3 16.6 12.2 24.3 33.8 19.2 0.0 13.7 3.0 8.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 39.1 2.1 11.1 19.8 33.8 24.6 14.6 36.7 6.4 16.2
8.4 6.4 1.1 28.4 13.2 3.5 46.3 14.6 29.4 6.2 2.4 6.4 15.0 0.4 3.9 6.8 3.4 0.0 11.3 2.2 4.8 20.2 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.3 23.7 10.0
% 2816 1638 3247 3114 32,913 1056 744 2275 14,488 20,766 1181 17,894 106 2331 1198 94 1965 6 3779 9623 8478 4358 5242 990 1434 9931 18,508 7095 177,270
7.1 5.2 6.1 1.2 8.6 0.0 1.4 14.5 16.6 2.0 0.6 9.9 62.5 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.3 36.1 1.3 2.1 0.2 2.3 0.0 2.4 2.9 0.0 0.1 3.6 5.1
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Table 3 – Population forecasts by region. Forecast
2020
2030
2040
2050
South-Eastern Anatolia Mediterranean East Anatolia Central and West Anatolia Aegean Marmara Black Sea Istanbul
8,025,700 9,464,100 6,242,700 13,586,900 10,433,400 10,032,100 9,229,600 13,242,500
8,687,500 9,810,200 6,323,100 15,141,700 11,293,800 10,859,400 9,990,600 14,768,700
9,349,300 10,090,000 6,337,400 16,762,600 12,154,100 11,686,600 10,751,700 16,361,300
10,011,100 10,303,700 6,385,500 18,449,700 13,014,400 12,513,900 11,512,800 17,919,900
Total
80,257,000
86,875,000
93,493,000
100,111,000
*Envirogrids, 2012.
Table 4 – High demand forecast for the period 2010–2050. Year Items High demand forecast, GWh Annual increase Peak, MW – high demand
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
202,730
288,300 7.3% 44,400
408,958 7.2% 63,000
511,198 4.6% 78,750
613,437 3.7% 94,500
736,125 3.7% 113,400
858,812 3.1% 132,300
987,634 2.8% 152,145
1,116,456 2.5% 171,990
31,246
order to reach about 39,000 MW of capacities in 2050. As it is presented in Table 6, the share of electricity generation seems stable 22–25% for the whole period. The expenses linked to the CO2 emissions are the basic restriction for an even greater development of the coal and lignite units. The ratio between lignite and coal is about 60:40 in 2010, but coal utilization will progress faster and at the end the installed capacities are expected to be equal. Combined cycle generation turbines (CCGT) are the backbone of the system, forming 25% of the total installed capacity and more than 30% of the generation (50,400 MW). Peak gas turbines will reach the considerable capacity of 18,000 MW, mainly serving as a reserve. Solar and especially wind generation capacities have a lower reliability and this will require the reserve power generation capacity share to be
increased. Load factor of the gas turbines will be not higher than 2500 h/year and energy production 2–4% of the total. Hydrostations require high investment and are vulnerable to climatic (hydrological) and ecological influences. Dam stations are major sources of peak energy and their amount is expected to grow to reach about 24,000 MW in 2050. Running-water stations substantially will increase their volume to reach 12,500 MW in 2050. Although the share of hydro stations is decreasing, their role in the total balance is of very high importance, as dominant capacities to cover the peak. Wind and solar generation is the major decision goal as previously outlined. The technology development is expected to be the major factor stimulating the growth of RES capacities. Solar capacities will start their implementation significantly
Table 5 – Low demand forecast for the period 2010–2050. Year Items Low demand forecast, GWh Annual increase Peak, MW – low demand
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
202,730
277,200 6.5% 42,700
377,305 6.4% 51,800
433,901 2.8% 58,000
490,496 2.5% 75,400
539,546 1.9% 90,480
588,596 1.8% 99,528
618,025 1.0% 99,528
647,455 0.9% 99,528
31,246
Table 6 – Capacity forecasts by plant type, MW. Year Item
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Nuclear stations Lignite and coal Gas and oil Hydro stations Wind Solar Other Total Peak, MW – high demand Reserve
0 10,650 16,850 16,400 750 0 350 45,000 31,246 30.6%
3000 16,300 29,400 23,080 3400 200 1650 77,050 63,000 18.2%
10,000 21,500 42,100 29,580 9400 9200 2250 124,050 94,500 23.8%
20,000 30,300 55,300 33,100 14,750 24,200 2250 179,900 133,245 25.9%
30,000 39,100 68,550 36,600 20,100 39,200 2250 235,800 171,990 27.1%
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Fig. 3 – The wind energy potential in the study area.
after 2020 in order to gain speed and at the end of the period to reach 7% of the total generation. The solar and wind energy potential were produced by using the mapping methodology as given in Figs. 3 and 4. Investment expenses are expected to drop down from 2000 to 900 EUR/MW, but with the increase of the wind generation amount the simulation model results in a load factor decrease from 2400 to 2000 h/year.
The reserve margin is allocated for covering the serious lack of reserves in the power generating system. The shortage in the power generation can be covered by import, which is an achievable task, having in mind the existing interconnections with the neighboring countries. The simulation model showed that at least 20–25% of reserves are considered adequate in order to ensure the stability of the system.
Fig. 4 – The solar energy potential in the study area. Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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Fig. 5 – Monthly distribution in 2050 (high demand scenario).
Considering the capacities and the high demand scenario, the simulation model showed a scenario covering the energy balance month by month (Fig. 5). The long repairs and fuel charging in nuclear stations were usually scheduled in months with a lower demand (April, May, September, and October). Solar stations had a significant production in summer months, while wind production, which is considered most unreliable, was distributed statistically. Coal and lignite units had a nearly uniform production, while CCGT production was dominating to cover about 40% of the total generation. Simple gas turbines had an important role for regulation, so their production varies significantly throughout the year. In this scenario the monthly balances seem more even. Solar production plays a significant role in the summer, while
wind is distributed statistically. In some months gas turbines production exceeds the normal peak production (see Fig. 6). The results of the study implemented within the framework of EnviroGRIDS Project include forecasts on the development of solar potential utilization for residential and commercial consumption. The results have shown that the solar power potential utilization is significant after 2020. The projections for 2050 indicate that electricity consumption from small and medium renewable energy sources including solar and wind will constitute 15% of the total, whereas the solar thermal will constitute around 16%. Geothermal and other renewables will remain around 3%. According to the high demand scenario, in 2050 the share of hydropower in overall electricity generation will be 12%, followed by solar power at 7% and wind power at 3% (EnviroGRIDS, 2012).
Fig. 6 – Monthly distribution in 2050 (low demand scenario). Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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5. Renewable energy policy and regulations in Turkey and in EU The main purpose of the energy policy should rely on the fulfillment of the energy demands created by the growing population and as a sequence by the growing economy, in a consistent, qualified and secure manner. In this context, the main point of the energy supply plan and program is to provide the required energy, at low cost, timely and uninterrupted. The renewable energy policy in Turkey is rather young but aimed to set strategic goals for implementation of renewable energy in Turkey. Law on Utilization of Renewable Energy Resources for the Purpose of Generating Electrical Energy was first enacted on 18.05.2005. Following this law, certain regulations were enacted and amendments have been made over time. The long awaited amendments to Turkey’s renewable energy regime were enacted on 8 January 2011. Following this, the Ministry of Energy and Natural Sources and Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) has promulgated regulations for the implementation of the recent amendments to the Law on Utilization of Renewable Energy Resources for the Purpose of Generating Electrical Energy (Renewable Energy Law). These regulations are; (i) Regulation on Certification and Support of Renewable Energy Sources (Regulation on Renewable Energy Support Mechanism), promulgated by EMRA effective from July 21, 2011, and (ii) Regulation on Domestic Manufacturing of Components used in Renewable Energy Electricity Generation Facilities (Regulation on Domestic Components), promulgated by the Ministry of Energy effective from June 19, 2011. These regulations implement the renewable energy support mechanism which encompasses the various incentives provided in the Renewable Energy Law such as the feed-in tariffs (the Support Mechanism), incremental price incentives for generators that use certain domestically manufactured mechanical and electromechanical components in their projects and the certification process for opting into such Support Mechanism. These incentives are described in Table 7 (URL 4). Feed-in Tariff incentives are valid for a period of 10 years for (i) power generators that utilize the renewables defined in the Regulation on Renewable Energy Support Mechanism and commence operations between May 18, 2005 and December 31, 2015 and (ii) license-exempt renewable energy generators through the retailers operating in the same region. The incremental price incentives apply only to projects that commence operations before December 31, 2015 and which have opted into the Support Mechanism, and they are available for five years after a project commences operations.
The domestic component price incentives require submission of a ‘‘domestic manufacturing certificate’’ attesting to the domestic origin of the relevant component, and a ‘‘product certificate’’ to be prepared by a national accreditation agency recognized by the International Accreditation Forum. The renewable energy goals of Turkey are described in a number of strategy papers, which form the basis for the expected trends discussed in the 2010 to 2014 Strategic Plan published by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, and Electrical Energy Market and Supply Security Strategy Paper issued in May 2009 (URL 5). Stated strategic plan addresses three main energy policy concerns: Energy supply security, regional and global influence in the area of energy and environment protection. According to the 2010–2014 Strategic Plan, in 2015, installed wind energy power will be 10,000 MW and installed geothermal energy power will be 300 MW. The Electricity Energy Supply and Security Strategy Paper sets out more comprehensive and ambitious targets including the share of renewable energy based generation to 30% of the overall generation (URL 5). Renewable targets set out in the Energy Strategy Paper are; (i) 30% of total electricity production from renewable energy until 2023, (ii) the whole economically usable hydropower potential of Turkey will be provided for generating electrical energy until 2023, (iii) 600 MW geothermal energy will be implemented by 2023, and (iv) 20,000 MW wind energy will be ¸ etin, 2011; MENR, 2010). in operation in 2023 (Saygin and C Achieving the renewable energy targets in 2023 is estimated to require investment in the renewable energy generation around 80 billion TL (6 billion TL/year) which will require some additional forms of financing. More than 3.5 billion dollars of loans and finance have been provided for renewable energy investments in Turkey since 2005, almost all of which were financed through of World Bank (IFC) and/or by local banks. Financing is seen as the most important barrier in achieving the renewable energy targets set out in the strategy papers. Government’s first energy policy concern is providing sufficient energy for growing Turkish economy. Energy diplomacy with supplier countries is one of the most important issue of Turkey’s policy, since Turkey imports all of its oil and gas supplies. At this point one of the main aims of the Turkish energy strategy is to ensure the energy supply security. For providing such a security, an increase in the diversity of the energy resources (in particularly domestic resources) is targeted. An increase in the share of renewable energy resources is also considered as a strategy ensuring the energy supply together with making the free market conditions operate fully (Tu¨kenmez and Demireli, 2012).
Table 7 – Renewable energy support mechanism (URL 4). Type of renewable energy Hydropower Wind Solar (PV) Solar (concentrated) Biomass Geothermal
Feed-in tariff (USD/MWh)
Max. domestic component incentive (USD/MWh)
Maximum total price for power output (USD/MWh)
73 73 133 92 133 105
23 37 133 200 56 27
96 110 67 225 189 132
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The second policy concern is the regional and global influence in energy field. For this policy, Turkey aims to play a main role as a hub and terminal for oil and gas transfer from Caspian region and Middle East to markets at west. In the electricity sector, Turkey has taken steps to create competitive wholesale and retail markets and aims to open the market for all customers by 2015 (IEA, 2010). The Turkish government primarily targets to increase the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation to at least 30% while decreasing the share of natural gas below 30%. In this context, the Turkish government has planned to make the required changes in the related law to fully utilize economically feasible hydropower potential in electricity generation, fully utilize economically feasible wind energy potential in electricity generation, provide full utilization of economically feasible geothermal energy potential of 600 MW and encourage and expand the utilization of solar energy for electricity generation until 2023. For the achievement of these targets, an increase of the installed capacities of hydropower and wind power plants to 20,000 and 19,200 MW is estimated for the next 15 years. The renewable energy policy of the EU started with the adoption of the 1997 White Paper (EC, 2011a, 1997). The main motivations in the formulation of renewable energy policy of the EU were to address the need to de-carbonise the energy production and the increasing dependency on fossil fuel imports from politically unstable regions outside the EU (DCENR, 2012). The promotion of renewable energy through indicative targets for the electricity and transport sectors was followed by the definition of legally binding targets supported by a comprehensive legislative framework, and most recently, by policies that facilitate renewable energy growth (ECRB, 2011; EC, 2001). The renewable energy directive, implemented by the Member States (MS) sets ambitious targets for all MS, aiming to reach a 20% share of energy from renewable sources by 2020 and a 10% share of renewable energy specifically in the transport sector in the EU (URL 6). The directive also improves the legal framework for promoting renewable electricity, requires national action plans that establish pathways for the development of renewable energy sources including bioenergy, creates cooperation mechanisms to help achieve the targets cost effectively and establishes the sustainability criteria for biofuels. The renewable energy directive (Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources) was published as part of the Climate-Energy Legislative Package adopted by the Council on 6th April 2009 by amending and subsequently repealing Directive 2001/77/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 September 2001 on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market and 2003/30/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 8 May 2003 on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport, aims to establish a common framework for the production and promotion of energy from renewable sources. The communication from the EC published on 31.1.2011, summarizes the progress toward the 2020 target of the renewable energy strategy (EC, 2011b). It was reported that
the non-binding 2010 targets for the share of renewable energy in the electricity and transport sectors of the MS were not met, however it is expected that the MS will all meet their legally binding 2020 targets according to their national plans submitted in 2010. A substantial increase in the financing of renewables, which is expected to be received mainly from the private sector, is foreseen to reach the 2020 targets apart from implementing the national action plans. The financial instruments to aid in reducing renewable energy costs include capital supports, i.e. grants, loans and loan guarantees equity funds and production aids, i.e. feed in tariffs, premiums, quota/certificate schemes, fiscal incentives and tenders. The need for provide a stable investment climate, without any retroactive changes to discourage investment emphasized in the recent recommendations of the EC to MS. The Commission also encourages the coordination of renewable energy support schemes and use of the cooperation mechanisms which are means of allowing MS to benefit from trade of renewable energy while being able to still maintain control over their national support schemes and the achievement of their national targets. Cooperation mechanisms include statistical transfers, joint projects and joint support schemes (EC, 2011c). In the period 2007–2009, the EU financial support given to renewables was roughly s9.8 bn (s3.26 bn/a), the bulk of which was in the form of loans from the European Investment Bank, while other sources included the European Economic Recovery Plan, the ‘‘Intelligent Energy Europe’’ Program, which co-funds analysis and policy research in renewable energy, EU Structural and Cohesion Funds which were allocated by MS to projects and demonstrations of renewable energy, the EU R&D Framework Program, the EIP GIF in the form of venture capital or loan guarantees, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development which granted SEI loans (EC, 2011c). On the contrary to EU, the constant feed-in tariff amount does not consider capital investments of specific energy sources in Turkey that brings disadvantage to the implementation. New regulations published and currently applied should be accepted as milestones in acquisition period of Turkey in EU. Another limitation for the utilization of renewable energy sources in Turkey is that most of the equipment are supplied from foreign countries. Since this is a cost-increasing factor, some new policies are needed for the promotion of the equipment manufacturing especially for wind and solar plants.
6.
Conclusion
Turkey is considered as one of the fastest growing markets in the world for the last twenty years. However, this growth pace is heavily dependent on imported energy, which is relatively expensive and hence possess a significant concern on sustainability of the national energy management. Therefore, use of renewable energy sources is recognized as an important consideration as a part of the efforts in diversifying energy sources while increasing the environmental sustainability of the national energy supply system toward building a cleaner grid. This approach is facilitated by the fact that Turkey has a
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great geographical advantage increasing its potential on utilizing renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and geothermal. Turkey holds approximately 1% of the global hydropower potential hence the major renewable energy source currently being utilized is hydropower. However, when the currently addressed social and environmental impacts of hydroelectric power plants are considered, new strategies are required to be developed in order to avoid failure against higher expectations related to environmental sustainability and human rights from new hydropower schemes. Biomass is another important renewable energy supply in Turkey. Turkey’s long term plan to tap its large potential for renewable energy is included in the recently published Electricity Market and Security of Supply Strategy (2009) with an overall target to generate at least 30% of total electricity from renewables by 2023 where the European Renewable Energy Commission determined 45% clean and renewable energy use by 2030 as a common target for Europe. Turkey’s 2023 targets on energy field include putting 600 MW geothermal capacity, 3000 MW solar power capacity and 20,000 MW wind power capacity in operation. For achieving this target, the new regulation provides exemptions from license obligations for small-scale generators and reductions on license fees, encourages domestic investments for reducing the costs. It should be noted that the utilization of wind and solar irradiation for energy production is not only depending on the climate conditions, but also on the existing technological level and many other restrictive factors – geographical, economical, technical, regulatory, social, etc. The theoretical potential, especially of the solar irradiance, in Turkey is found at a very high level and unlimited, even from the point of view of the energy need. Intensive research is needed for the implementation of the innovative technology. The gradual development of the technologies for transformation, storage and control will raise the technological potential limit and will allow the rapid implementation of wind and solar projects in a degree, which up to 2050 will make RES the major component especially in the energy balance of the Black Sea countries. The regulatory framework is another important factor, together with the technological progress, which can stimulate the implementation of renewable energy. It should be noted that the regulatory framework does not include enough incentives for the support of the small units, covering own consumption, as well as for the heat production from solar radiation. In this context, following items are considered as the main priorities in the energy policy of Turkey:
Supporting local production: for equipment such as wind terminals, and solar energy panels. Providing diversity of resources by giving priority to local resources hence promoting local markets. Encouraging use of solar energy: a progressive improvement target is formulated (37% share for solar power by 2100). Increasing demand on renewable energy. Providing resource diversity in oil and natural gas and taking precautions to minimize risks based on imports.
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Carrying out energy activities considering the environmental dimension. Introducing Turkey as an energy corridor and an important station. Increasing energy efficiency. Making energy available to consumers in a cost efficient, timely manner meeting the demand. Improving the investment environment and supporting free market strategy. All these priorities have been encouraged by different regulations and incentives implemented. Beside the incentives, some revisions and/or restructuring of regulations related to environmental issues are needed to minimize the environmental effects of renewable energy applications.
Acknowledgements This paper is a part of the work conducted in EnviroGRIDS Project. The authors would like to acknowledge the European Commission ‘‘Seventh Framework Program’’ that funded the EnviroGRIDS Project (Grant Agreement no. 227640).
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http://www.enerji.gov.tr/yayinlar_raporlar_EN/ ETKB_2010_2014_Stratejik_Plani_EN.pdf (last accessed on 20.08.14). URL 6, Renewable energy, Targets by 2020, official website of EC. http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/targets_en.htm (last accessed on 20.08.14). WES, 2003. Wind Energy Estimation System. T.R. Ministry of Environment and Forest State Meteorology Administration, Ankara, p. 19. Yarbay, R.Z., Gu¨ler, A.S¸., Yaman, E., 2011. Renewable energy sources and policies in Turkey. In: 6th International Advanced Technologies Symposium (IATS’11), Elazˇˇ ig˘, Turkey, 16–18 May 2011. Senem Teksoy Basaran Senem Teksoy Bas¸aran is an Environmental Engineer with a PhD degree on Environmental Biotechnology. She has spent over 10 years at Istanbul Technical University (ITU) working on various European Union funded international environmental projects (FP 6, FP7 and MEDA) basically on Water and Energy Management as a researcher and Project Assistant, parallel to her academic studies at ITU Environmental Engineering Department. She is also an expert on climate change, energy management, GHG inventory preparation and GHG emission reduction projects. She is currently working as lead tutor at British Standards Institute. ¨ zgu¨r Dog˘ru is a research Ahmet Ozgur Dogru Assist. Prof. Dr. A. O associate in Geomatics Engineering Department of the Istanbul Technical University (ITU) in Turkey. He did researches on cartography, data modeling, database design and model generalization in the Geography Department of Ghent University, Belgium and COGIT Laboratory of National Geographic Institute of France (Institut Geographique National – IGN France) for 6 and 12 months respectively as guest PhD researcher. He completed his PhD thesis on Cartographic Approaches for Designing Car Navigation Maps by Using Multiple Representational Databases in 2009. He was involved several projects three of them supported by EU Framework Program. Filiz Bektas¸ Balcˇ¸ˇ ik Filiz BEKTAS BALCIK received Ph.D. degree in Geomatics Engineering from Istanbul Technical University, in 2010. She did a part of her PhD research at International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Natural Resource Department, in the Netherlands while she was a Huygens Nuffic PhD Scholar (2 years). Currently, she is an associated professor at the department of Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, ITU, Istanbul. Her research interests include remote sensing applications on land use land cover change detection, urbanization, forestry, and biophysical and biochemical characteristics of savanna vegetation (in the South Africa), hyper spectral imaging. Necla Ulugtekin Prof. Dr. N. Necla ULUGTEKIN is a senior lecturer in the Cartography Division of Department of Geodesy and Photogrammetry in Istanbul Technical University – ITU. Her main interests recently are cartography, map design, cartographic visualization, small display cartographic design and Spatial Data/ Information communication. She was involved in a number of individual and team studies and projects on Electronic Atlas, Mountain Maps, Map Design for Hand Held Devices, etc. Cigdem Goksel Dr. Cigdem GOKSEL is currently working as an Assoc. Prof. at the Istanbul Technical University (ITU), Faculty of Civil Engineering Department of Geomatic Engineering. She received her B.Sc.in 1984, M.Sc. in 1989 and Ph.D. degree in 1996 from ITU. She was visiting scholar at Murray State University’s MidAmerica Remote Sensing Center (Geosciences) KY–USA in 1999. Her main research areas are monitoring landuse landcover change
Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016
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and remote sensing and GIS integration for the environmental studies. She has more than 90 scientific publications related with different remote sensing applications. Seval So¨zen Dr. Seval So¨zen is professor at Istanbul Technical University (ITU), Department of Environmental Engineering. She received her Ph.D. degree in 1995 in the field of Environmental Engineering at ITU. Dr. So¨zen has 28 years of teaching and
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research experience in the field of Environmental Science and Technology. Her research area focuses on industrial pollution control, waste management and modeling. She has directed and supervised numerous research studies and projects on environmental biotechnology, industrial pollution control and integrated water management. She holds a long list of scientific publications with over 100 papers, which received more than 800 citations.
Please cite this article in press as: Basaran, S.T. et al., Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union, Environ. Sci. Policy (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.016