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Australian opportunities in space science and applications
Australian opportunities in space science and applications Australia has been involved in space almost since the beginning of the space era. In this edited version of a paper given at the 1990 Australian Space Development Conference, held in Sydney, 24-26 August, Jeff Kingwell looks at the part played by the country's largest research organization, CSIRO, in Australia's space activities and discusses whether there are any relevant precedents for national speculative investment in expensive exploratory ventures. In the Australian context economic benefits are likely in the resources, services and infrastructure sectors rather than in manufacturing industry. In addition, important though unquantifiable benefits can be expected in cultural, environmental and international relations domains.
I like to argue that Australians have been interested in space longer than any other nation. Archaeological evidence suggests that Australian Aboriginals have existed as a continuous society for at least 40 000 years, which would make them the oldest presentday society on Earth, and on the basis of endurance, the most successful. During this time undoubtedly an enormous number of observations were made of the night sky, and an invalua b l e s t o r e h o u s e of l e g e n d s a n d theories rich in intuitive understanding has arisen. Curiosity is a fundamental human characteristic which I suspect predates, and will probably outlast, the desire to trade with, tax or terminate our fellows. Today it is still principally this curiosity factor, this urge to explore new worlds of intellect, which i n s p i r e s the boffins, visionaries and enthusiastis who have paid their dues for the space programmes of the past 30-odd years. Now, telescopes, satellites, computers and other instruments assist the human mind and eye in our efforts to explain the universe and our place in it, but probably none of these devices has quite the same impact as a clear night in the Central Australian desert. What of the more prosaic ways in which Australia makes use of space? Our meteorological services, overseas and outback telecommunications and broadcasting, mineral resources exploration, environmental monitoring, scientific research and military intelligence systems are all heavily dependent on applications of space technology. In the international sphere
SPACE POLICY May 1991
Australian diplomats are increasingly expected, possibly erroneously, to comment knowledgeably on global or regional initiatives which rely on satellites, in applications from strategic arms control to monitoring global environmental changes and operating spaceports. In fact, in the context of the South-East Asian and South Pacific region, Australia at present has unique advantages and skills in spacebased communications and remote sensing. This advantage is now being demonstrated in a range of contracts and development projects, including the supply by the Overseas Telecommunications Corporation (OTC) of communications services in Laos, Kiribati and Vietnam, and by the construction in Manila by BHP Engineering of a Centre for Remote Sensing. The importance of space to Australia should really come as no surprise: throughout our history an inherent feature of our society has been what Blainey called the 'tyranny of distance', the size and isolation of the continent of Australia. 1 To a great extent, over the last several years 'space' has conquered 'distance'. From the vantage point of space, satellites like Aussat and Intelsat can communicate at the speed of light with all parts of the globe in a direct line of sight. And by relaying signals to other satellites, virtually the whole world is opened to instant communication. Weather systems, changes to atmospheric constituents such as ozone and carbon dioxide, and the effects of those changes on ocean and terrestrial environments can now be
effectively monitored from space on a global basis, whereas until recently only 'spot samples' could be obtained from land areas or ships. Remote sensing of the Earth environment from space will play a key role in gathering the information we need to safeguard the global environment. Some people would argue that humanity's new-found concern over global change is itself partly a by-product of the unique perspective made possible by the Space Age, as illustrated by the Apollo mission photograhs of Earth. You will notice that I have said little so far about making things which fly in space. Designing, building, launching and operating instruments for use in space is a difficult and expensive task, generally requiring advanced managerial, manufacturing, research and engineering skills. The challenge of acquiring and demonstrating these skills demands a high level of coordination and long-term planning in government, research bodies, educational institutions and industry. The benefits include better national self-image; economic and political independence; improved industry skills; stronger regional and international influence; increased national security; and stimulation of education and research. However, it is a mistake to regard space exploration simply, or even primarily, in terms of an extending manufacturing industry capability. The demands of each mission are usually so different, the rate of launch so low and the rate of technical innovation so rapid that there is scarcely any opportunity to corner the market in some mass-produced space 'widget'. Possibly the longest production run in satellite sensor history is the A V H R R multispectral radiometer, of which only about 12 have been built. Even if Australia were, at considerable public expense, to develop the capability of producing, commercial say, communications satellites, it is not at all clear that economically speaking it would be wise to do so. Increasing satellite design life, a market which appears to be relatively flat at best, and the emerging trend towards protective satellite trade and launch policies by the larger
161
Reports economies, all mean that it would be difficult to achieve export sales of whole satellites sufficient to offset the cost of development. Nevertheless, there will continue to be a demand for specialized scientific payloads, for example, and meeting this demand could be the means by which Australia levers its way into the space sector of international satellite projects. Globally the Manufactured commodity group accounts for over 40% of trade. However, of Australian export trade, only some 18% - less than half the world average - consists of manufactured goods. It is probable that the economic benefit of space technology to Australia, in keeping with the existing economic sectoral relativities, will continue to be biased towards services, primary industry, and infrastructure, rather than manufacturing industry. Our future in space depends on how cleverly we make use of this medium, more than on how many widgets we build or launch. The satellite communications systems installed in Asia by OTC International are a case in point. Many people in the space industry see this as exporting discrete products such as antenna and telecommunications equipment. However, the major imperative of OTC is really in exporting services; the technology is secondary. By providing equipment, training and infrastructure support, OTC has been responsible for an increase of 1000% in telecommunications from Ho Chi Minh city during 1986-89; with further upgrades in equipment there and in Hanoi in 1989-90, an additional 200°/,, growth was experienced over the past 12 months. An increase of a further 1000% in traffic is expected over the next five years, the 'payoff' to OTC arises not from once-only equipment sales, but from the continuing supply of value-added services and training, and tariffs derived from growth in direct and on-forwarded traffic. Of course, margins on providing services may be more profitable if, as in this case, the technology employed is developed by the provider (OTC, together with CSIRO). Nevertheless, it is the continuing service which is the rationale, not a one-off equipment sale.
162
Space and CSIRO The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization is the nation's largest R&D body, and one of its oldest institutions, having been formed in 1927. It employs about 6500 staff and has an annual budget of approximately A$0.5 billion. Of its 30-odd research divisions, over half participate in some form of space research. These space-related programmes are coordinated by the CSIRO Office of Space Science and Applications. CSIRO is a statutory authority, functioning under the Science and Industry Research Act 1949 and answering directly to a minister of the government. Some of the functions of CSIRO, as defined by the Act, are as follows (here 'science' includes 'technology'): •
•
• •
•
•
carry out scientific research for: assisting Australian industry; furthering the interests of the Australian community; contributing to the achievement of Australian national objectives or the performance of the national and international responsibilities of the C o m m o n wealth; any other purpose determined by the Minister; encourage or facilitate the application or utilization of scientific research; carry out services, and make available facilities in relation to science; act as a means of liaison between Australia and other countries in matters concerned with scientific research; train, and assist in the training of, research workers in the field of s c i e n c e , a n d c o o p e r a t e with tertiary-education institutions in relation to education in that field; collect, interpret and disseminate information relating to scientific and technical matters.
Not many other organizations have such a broad responsibility in science and technology. Some people may find it vaguely un-Australian to be enthusiastic about and proud of one's organization. Nevertheless I want to emphasize that because of the breadth and excellence of its expertise, CSIRO is an invaluable national resource, without which very few Australian
space ventures could succeed. The organization, more than ever before, is determined that the results of its operations should be translated into real social and economic benefits. Let me review just a few examples from the space field.
Antenna and signal processing for science and communications. The most modern and efficient radiotelescope in the Southern Hemisphere is the Australia Telescope, opened by the Prime Minister during Australia's bicentenary. The Telescope is already a crucial component of a number of international research programmes, and over coming decades it will continue to keep Australia at the forefront of radioastronomy. Experience gained through antennae and signal processing design work by CSIRO for this national research facility made it possible for Australian agencies and companies to receive several international contracts.
Helping the Space Shuttle blast of]~ In collaboration with the Adelaide company Vision Systems, CSIRO has produced a high-speed machine vision processor which is used as a component of NASA's Space Shuttle Vision Guidance System. This system enables launch staff to monitor the movement of the Shuttle on the pad and the wind-induced motion of the launch tower itself, and to correctly position and monitor umbilical lines.
Affordable metsat stations. In less than a decade Australia has achieved coverage of high-resolution polar orbiting meteorological satellite data second to none. It has been able to afford to do so primarily because of the development of reception equipment by CSIRO. Australian companies PCM Electronics and Clough Engineering now market these systems internationally.
Precision optics. Interest in studying solar oscillations has led to the design and construction by CSIRO of lithium niobate tunable etalon filters. These are now utilized in solar observatories in Australia and the USA, may be used for space sensors, and appear to
SPACE POLICY May 1991
Reports have a future in Earth-based remote sensing. In May 1990 CSIRO opened an aerospace optics manufacturing facility in Clayton. This will consolidate capability for the manufacture of large-scale precision optical devices for a range of applications.
Making sense of satellite Earth images. Early last decade the Great Barrier Reef Marine Parks Authority, the Australian Survey Office and CSIRO considered how best to map and classify conditions on the Great Barrier Reef, one of Australia's great natural treasures and major tourist attractions. They rapidly concluded that satellite images offered substantial cost benefits (savings of up to $15 million and a number of staff years compared to aerial photography). However, suitable software for manipulation and processing of the images was not available. A software routine known as BRIAN (Barrier Reef Image ANalysis) was developed for this purpose. Later CSIRO adapted the software for general satellite image processing and utilities suitable for microcomputers: this system, known as microBRIAN, is marketed internationally by MPA Communications Ltd, which has achieved well in excess of $1 million worth of aggregate sales of their image processing workstations and associated hardware and software. CSIRO has also developed a database management system (DBMS) based on its DISIMP (Device Independent Software for IMage Processing). SIRO-DBMS is used as the basis for image-based geographic information systems and natural resources database catalogues, and forms a key part of the database management system of the National Resource Information Centre of the Department of Primary Industry and Energy. CSIRO has also collaborated with Elders Pty Ltd and the National Australian Bank on the use of satellite imagery, rural production statistics and image-based geographic information systems. These have useful applications in rural financing and business management.
SPACE POLICY May 1991
Historical analogy What guidance does the past give to the financing of speculative ventures involving the exploration of new worlds? Christopher Columbus spent over a decade in trying to convince the monarchs and merchants of Europe to finance a voyage of exploration. His protestations about the economic benefits of establishing a new trading route for spices and other high-value exports from Japan, China and the East Indies did not at first find fertile ground. History records that as 'a man of one idea, and that a radical one, he was regarded as tiresome by most people and was hated by many'. 2 Columbus did not help matters with his costings. Advisors to the various merchants he badgered for funds complained that he wanted the best of everything: three ships equipped and maintained at the king's expense, a large share in the trade, the govenorship of any lands he might discover, the title of Admiral of the World Sea, and noble rank. King John II of Portugal did not care to invest in an enterprise which his experts declared to be impractical, so the king refused Columbus' request in 1482. Nothing daunted, the adventurer turned to Ferdinand and Isabella of Spain. They considered the matter for the next seven years, establishing a benchmark for bureaucratic procrastination that has not seriously been threatened until recently. Eventually they decided that Columbus was worth a risk, and financed his venture. Instead of improving the profitability of the spice trade, Columbus discovered a continent of some 41 million sq km which today hosts about 14% of the population and the largest economy on the planet, and which has given nurture to scientific, social and political freedoms which changed the world. Within years of the discovery, laden galleons were returning to Spain to repay Ferdinand and Isabella's investment many times over. Columbus was fortunate in that bureaucracies at the time did not have the blessing of present-day management tools such as cost-benefit analysis. Had he been required to perform
one, and had it been accurate, no right-thinking government economist would have believed him! The historic parallels between the voyage of Columbus and the new age of space are so irresistible that 1992, the 500th anniversary of the discovery of the New World, has been declared International Space Year. Some of the ISY projects which will involve Australia include continued use of Earth observation satellites for environmental monitoring and scientific investigation in a 'Mission to Planet Earth'. One of the satellites to be used, the European Space Agency's ERS-1, is of particular interest since it will carry components made in Australia, and data from its radar will be received directly in this country and processed using sophisticated locally developed technology and software. Another Earth observation satellite project which Australian investigators will join is the Topex-Poseidon ocean mapping mission. This joint French/ US mission will use radar altimeters and precision tracking systems to measure the shape of the world ocean and the height of ocean waves to great accuracy. This should magnify our knowledge of ocean currents, wave generation and underwater topography. By 1992 Australia should be using its second-generation, Chinese-launched Aussat communication satellites for domestic and regional telecommunications and broadcasting. Australians will conduct much of their intercontinental and maritime telephone calls via international operated satellites such as Intelsat and Inmarsat; these calls will in many cases rely on accurate satellite station-keeping by the Overseas Telecommunications Commission, and use Australian communications equipment and antennae. The Australia Telescope will be continuing to enlarge our knowledge of galactic astronomy, and will in 1992 be preparing for operation in conjunction with the Soviet-led Radioastron Very Long Baseline Interferometry mission. Radioastron is another international satellite which will be carrying an Australian component, in this case a high-performance L-band lownoise amplifier. During the Interna-
163
Reports tional Space Year astronomers will probably be analysing the information obtained by the Endeavour ultraviolet telescope built by Auspace Ltd in Canberra and to be launched, hopefully in the near future, by the US Space Shuttle. One or even two Australian launch facilities and launch vehicles may by 1992 be under development at Cape York and a revitalized Woomera, from where two satellites were launched in 1967 and 1971. CSIRO is the co-leader, with research organizations in the USSR and France, of one of 10 'Mission to Planet Earth' demonstration experiments: the International Land Cover Change Project of the ISY. This will use satellite data obtained over the period 1972-90 to compare and document changes in selected environmentally sensitive areas of the world. This project should lead to improved methods of assessing objectively the impact and extent of deforestation, pasture degradation, urban sprawl and salinification. This sort of research application would be of immense international interest, and would be a practical way of underlining Australia's concern with global change.
Also within the ISY agenda will be training, public education and other scientific investigations of global change and of the space environment. I hope that public-interest groups such as the National Space Society will consider establishing within Australia an ISY programme which complements some of the scientific activities I have mentioned here. As humans and their machines venture further and more frequently into space, we will undoubtedly, like Columbus, discover a great deal. And like Columbus, much of what we discover will not be what we expected. We cannot be sure that the effort will make us all rich - but we can feel confident that the venture will permanently alter our view of the world, and that opportunities of many kinds will arise for those with the foresight, courage and skill to take them.
Jeff Kingwell CSIRO Office of Space Science and Applications Dickson, ACT, Australia 1Geoffrey Blainey, The Tyranny of Distance: How Distance Shaped Australia's History, Sun Books, Melbourne, 1966. 2World Book Encyclopedia, 1988.
Promoting the Coalition for a Lunar Power System Powering human civilization in the 21st century with clean energy from the Moon became the focus of a unique conference conducted at the Sea Lodge in LaJolla, California, 9-11 July 1990. Organized by Netrologic Inc of San Diego, the lunar-based Solar Power Planning Workshop attracted an efite group of 25 distinguished scientists, engineers and other professionals to formulate an international Coafition for a Lunar Power System. The participants ranged from Buzz Aldrin of Starcraft Enterprises and Bryan Erb of the Canadian Space Agency, to Osamu Inoue of Shimizu Corporation and Gary McAIlister of Bechtel Corporation. The discussions centred upon the lunar power system (LPS) research of two co-inventors, David R. Criswell of DRC Associates and Robert D. Waldron of Rockwell International. Consideration was given to their key papers. 1 In his workshop introduction, Dan Greenwood, president of Netrologic, reminded the audience that im-
164
plementation in the next century of Criswell and Waldron's innovative concepts could provide for the electrical needs of every person on Earth w i t h o u t d e p l e t i n g t e r r e s t r i a l resources. Instead, solar energy collected on the Moon and transmitted back to this planet to 1000 groundbased stations would then be con-
verted into abundant, pollution-free electric power. The world would no longer be critically dependent upon organic fuels and OPEC! Dr Criswell envisages that it Js realistic to expect that by 2050 the energy needs of the 10 billion population on the Earth could be met. He detailed how lunar solar power would be gathered in thin-film photovoltaics, converted into thousands of lowintensity microwave beams and projected from shared, large-diameter synthetic apertures to receivers located anywhere on Earth. The astrophysicist explained that the transmissions are in the form of photons which weigh nothing and travel at the speed of light. In establishing this new Earth/ space-based industry, Dr Waldron asserted that engineering and cost models indicate that LPS could be economically robust and profitable by 2005 with returns on investments exceeding 40% per year. Building upon the original solar power satellite (SPS) research of Peter Glaser, Criswell and Waldron maintain that such lunar power would be environmentally supportive, rather than damaging, while contributing to global peace and prosperity. Both scientists see this large-scale technological venture as a direct paybaek for the billions already invested in the Apollo lunar missions and space infrastructure. To meet dramatic rises in global energy needs, the innovators urged support for a coalition entity to promote: (a) prototype research and development by the technical community; and (b) public education on the social, political, legal and environmental implications of lunar power systems. To get away from a thermal economy would require a major upfront investment, largely groundbased, but would result in a new growth m a r k e t providing cheaper energy for the whole planet, including the expanding Third World populace. The distinguished geologist, Mel Peterson, formerly of Scripps Institution of Oceanography and N O A A , spoke on the 'Energy and environmental factors' affecting LPS which might lessen the greenhouse effect, chlorines in the atmosphere and other global pollution concerns. Dr Peter-
SPACE POLICY May 1991
I like to argue that Australians have been interested in space longer than any other nation. Archaeological evidence suggests that Australian Aboriginals have existed as a continuous society for at least 40 000 years, which would make them the oldest presentday society on Earth, and on the basis of endurance, the most successful. During this time undoubtedly an enormous number of observations were made of the night sky, and an invalua b l e s t o r e h o u s e of l e g e n d s a n d theories rich in intuitive understanding has arisen. Curiosity is a fundamental human characteristic which I suspect predates, and will probably outlast, the desire to trade with, tax or terminate our fellows. Today it is still principally this curiosity factor, this urge to explore new worlds of intellect, which i n s p i r e s the boffins, visionaries and enthusiastis who have paid their dues for the space programmes of the past 30-odd years. Now, telescopes, satellites, computers and other instruments assist the human mind and eye in our efforts to explain the universe and our place in it, but probably none of these devices has quite the same impact as a clear night in the Central Australian desert. What of the more prosaic ways in which Australia makes use of space? Our meteorological services, overseas and outback telecommunications and broadcasting, mineral resources exploration, environmental monitoring, scientific research and military intelligence systems are all heavily dependent on applications of space technology. In the international sphere
SPACE POLICY May 1991
Australian diplomats are increasingly expected, possibly erroneously, to comment knowledgeably on global or regional initiatives which rely on satellites, in applications from strategic arms control to monitoring global environmental changes and operating spaceports. In fact, in the context of the South-East Asian and South Pacific region, Australia at present has unique advantages and skills in spacebased communications and remote sensing. This advantage is now being demonstrated in a range of contracts and development projects, including the supply by the Overseas Telecommunications Corporation (OTC) of communications services in Laos, Kiribati and Vietnam, and by the construction in Manila by BHP Engineering of a Centre for Remote Sensing. The importance of space to Australia should really come as no surprise: throughout our history an inherent feature of our society has been what Blainey called the 'tyranny of distance', the size and isolation of the continent of Australia. 1 To a great extent, over the last several years 'space' has conquered 'distance'. From the vantage point of space, satellites like Aussat and Intelsat can communicate at the speed of light with all parts of the globe in a direct line of sight. And by relaying signals to other satellites, virtually the whole world is opened to instant communication. Weather systems, changes to atmospheric constituents such as ozone and carbon dioxide, and the effects of those changes on ocean and terrestrial environments can now be
effectively monitored from space on a global basis, whereas until recently only 'spot samples' could be obtained from land areas or ships. Remote sensing of the Earth environment from space will play a key role in gathering the information we need to safeguard the global environment. Some people would argue that humanity's new-found concern over global change is itself partly a by-product of the unique perspective made possible by the Space Age, as illustrated by the Apollo mission photograhs of Earth. You will notice that I have said little so far about making things which fly in space. Designing, building, launching and operating instruments for use in space is a difficult and expensive task, generally requiring advanced managerial, manufacturing, research and engineering skills. The challenge of acquiring and demonstrating these skills demands a high level of coordination and long-term planning in government, research bodies, educational institutions and industry. The benefits include better national self-image; economic and political independence; improved industry skills; stronger regional and international influence; increased national security; and stimulation of education and research. However, it is a mistake to regard space exploration simply, or even primarily, in terms of an extending manufacturing industry capability. The demands of each mission are usually so different, the rate of launch so low and the rate of technical innovation so rapid that there is scarcely any opportunity to corner the market in some mass-produced space 'widget'. Possibly the longest production run in satellite sensor history is the A V H R R multispectral radiometer, of which only about 12 have been built. Even if Australia were, at considerable public expense, to develop the capability of producing, commercial say, communications satellites, it is not at all clear that economically speaking it would be wise to do so. Increasing satellite design life, a market which appears to be relatively flat at best, and the emerging trend towards protective satellite trade and launch policies by the larger
161
Reports economies, all mean that it would be difficult to achieve export sales of whole satellites sufficient to offset the cost of development. Nevertheless, there will continue to be a demand for specialized scientific payloads, for example, and meeting this demand could be the means by which Australia levers its way into the space sector of international satellite projects. Globally the Manufactured commodity group accounts for over 40% of trade. However, of Australian export trade, only some 18% - less than half the world average - consists of manufactured goods. It is probable that the economic benefit of space technology to Australia, in keeping with the existing economic sectoral relativities, will continue to be biased towards services, primary industry, and infrastructure, rather than manufacturing industry. Our future in space depends on how cleverly we make use of this medium, more than on how many widgets we build or launch. The satellite communications systems installed in Asia by OTC International are a case in point. Many people in the space industry see this as exporting discrete products such as antenna and telecommunications equipment. However, the major imperative of OTC is really in exporting services; the technology is secondary. By providing equipment, training and infrastructure support, OTC has been responsible for an increase of 1000% in telecommunications from Ho Chi Minh city during 1986-89; with further upgrades in equipment there and in Hanoi in 1989-90, an additional 200°/,, growth was experienced over the past 12 months. An increase of a further 1000% in traffic is expected over the next five years, the 'payoff' to OTC arises not from once-only equipment sales, but from the continuing supply of value-added services and training, and tariffs derived from growth in direct and on-forwarded traffic. Of course, margins on providing services may be more profitable if, as in this case, the technology employed is developed by the provider (OTC, together with CSIRO). Nevertheless, it is the continuing service which is the rationale, not a one-off equipment sale.
162
Space and CSIRO The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization is the nation's largest R&D body, and one of its oldest institutions, having been formed in 1927. It employs about 6500 staff and has an annual budget of approximately A$0.5 billion. Of its 30-odd research divisions, over half participate in some form of space research. These space-related programmes are coordinated by the CSIRO Office of Space Science and Applications. CSIRO is a statutory authority, functioning under the Science and Industry Research Act 1949 and answering directly to a minister of the government. Some of the functions of CSIRO, as defined by the Act, are as follows (here 'science' includes 'technology'): •
•
• •
•
•
carry out scientific research for: assisting Australian industry; furthering the interests of the Australian community; contributing to the achievement of Australian national objectives or the performance of the national and international responsibilities of the C o m m o n wealth; any other purpose determined by the Minister; encourage or facilitate the application or utilization of scientific research; carry out services, and make available facilities in relation to science; act as a means of liaison between Australia and other countries in matters concerned with scientific research; train, and assist in the training of, research workers in the field of s c i e n c e , a n d c o o p e r a t e with tertiary-education institutions in relation to education in that field; collect, interpret and disseminate information relating to scientific and technical matters.
Not many other organizations have such a broad responsibility in science and technology. Some people may find it vaguely un-Australian to be enthusiastic about and proud of one's organization. Nevertheless I want to emphasize that because of the breadth and excellence of its expertise, CSIRO is an invaluable national resource, without which very few Australian
space ventures could succeed. The organization, more than ever before, is determined that the results of its operations should be translated into real social and economic benefits. Let me review just a few examples from the space field.
Antenna and signal processing for science and communications. The most modern and efficient radiotelescope in the Southern Hemisphere is the Australia Telescope, opened by the Prime Minister during Australia's bicentenary. The Telescope is already a crucial component of a number of international research programmes, and over coming decades it will continue to keep Australia at the forefront of radioastronomy. Experience gained through antennae and signal processing design work by CSIRO for this national research facility made it possible for Australian agencies and companies to receive several international contracts.
Helping the Space Shuttle blast of]~ In collaboration with the Adelaide company Vision Systems, CSIRO has produced a high-speed machine vision processor which is used as a component of NASA's Space Shuttle Vision Guidance System. This system enables launch staff to monitor the movement of the Shuttle on the pad and the wind-induced motion of the launch tower itself, and to correctly position and monitor umbilical lines.
Affordable metsat stations. In less than a decade Australia has achieved coverage of high-resolution polar orbiting meteorological satellite data second to none. It has been able to afford to do so primarily because of the development of reception equipment by CSIRO. Australian companies PCM Electronics and Clough Engineering now market these systems internationally.
Precision optics. Interest in studying solar oscillations has led to the design and construction by CSIRO of lithium niobate tunable etalon filters. These are now utilized in solar observatories in Australia and the USA, may be used for space sensors, and appear to
SPACE POLICY May 1991
Reports have a future in Earth-based remote sensing. In May 1990 CSIRO opened an aerospace optics manufacturing facility in Clayton. This will consolidate capability for the manufacture of large-scale precision optical devices for a range of applications.
Making sense of satellite Earth images. Early last decade the Great Barrier Reef Marine Parks Authority, the Australian Survey Office and CSIRO considered how best to map and classify conditions on the Great Barrier Reef, one of Australia's great natural treasures and major tourist attractions. They rapidly concluded that satellite images offered substantial cost benefits (savings of up to $15 million and a number of staff years compared to aerial photography). However, suitable software for manipulation and processing of the images was not available. A software routine known as BRIAN (Barrier Reef Image ANalysis) was developed for this purpose. Later CSIRO adapted the software for general satellite image processing and utilities suitable for microcomputers: this system, known as microBRIAN, is marketed internationally by MPA Communications Ltd, which has achieved well in excess of $1 million worth of aggregate sales of their image processing workstations and associated hardware and software. CSIRO has also developed a database management system (DBMS) based on its DISIMP (Device Independent Software for IMage Processing). SIRO-DBMS is used as the basis for image-based geographic information systems and natural resources database catalogues, and forms a key part of the database management system of the National Resource Information Centre of the Department of Primary Industry and Energy. CSIRO has also collaborated with Elders Pty Ltd and the National Australian Bank on the use of satellite imagery, rural production statistics and image-based geographic information systems. These have useful applications in rural financing and business management.
SPACE POLICY May 1991
Historical analogy What guidance does the past give to the financing of speculative ventures involving the exploration of new worlds? Christopher Columbus spent over a decade in trying to convince the monarchs and merchants of Europe to finance a voyage of exploration. His protestations about the economic benefits of establishing a new trading route for spices and other high-value exports from Japan, China and the East Indies did not at first find fertile ground. History records that as 'a man of one idea, and that a radical one, he was regarded as tiresome by most people and was hated by many'. 2 Columbus did not help matters with his costings. Advisors to the various merchants he badgered for funds complained that he wanted the best of everything: three ships equipped and maintained at the king's expense, a large share in the trade, the govenorship of any lands he might discover, the title of Admiral of the World Sea, and noble rank. King John II of Portugal did not care to invest in an enterprise which his experts declared to be impractical, so the king refused Columbus' request in 1482. Nothing daunted, the adventurer turned to Ferdinand and Isabella of Spain. They considered the matter for the next seven years, establishing a benchmark for bureaucratic procrastination that has not seriously been threatened until recently. Eventually they decided that Columbus was worth a risk, and financed his venture. Instead of improving the profitability of the spice trade, Columbus discovered a continent of some 41 million sq km which today hosts about 14% of the population and the largest economy on the planet, and which has given nurture to scientific, social and political freedoms which changed the world. Within years of the discovery, laden galleons were returning to Spain to repay Ferdinand and Isabella's investment many times over. Columbus was fortunate in that bureaucracies at the time did not have the blessing of present-day management tools such as cost-benefit analysis. Had he been required to perform
one, and had it been accurate, no right-thinking government economist would have believed him! The historic parallels between the voyage of Columbus and the new age of space are so irresistible that 1992, the 500th anniversary of the discovery of the New World, has been declared International Space Year. Some of the ISY projects which will involve Australia include continued use of Earth observation satellites for environmental monitoring and scientific investigation in a 'Mission to Planet Earth'. One of the satellites to be used, the European Space Agency's ERS-1, is of particular interest since it will carry components made in Australia, and data from its radar will be received directly in this country and processed using sophisticated locally developed technology and software. Another Earth observation satellite project which Australian investigators will join is the Topex-Poseidon ocean mapping mission. This joint French/ US mission will use radar altimeters and precision tracking systems to measure the shape of the world ocean and the height of ocean waves to great accuracy. This should magnify our knowledge of ocean currents, wave generation and underwater topography. By 1992 Australia should be using its second-generation, Chinese-launched Aussat communication satellites for domestic and regional telecommunications and broadcasting. Australians will conduct much of their intercontinental and maritime telephone calls via international operated satellites such as Intelsat and Inmarsat; these calls will in many cases rely on accurate satellite station-keeping by the Overseas Telecommunications Commission, and use Australian communications equipment and antennae. The Australia Telescope will be continuing to enlarge our knowledge of galactic astronomy, and will in 1992 be preparing for operation in conjunction with the Soviet-led Radioastron Very Long Baseline Interferometry mission. Radioastron is another international satellite which will be carrying an Australian component, in this case a high-performance L-band lownoise amplifier. During the Interna-
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Reports tional Space Year astronomers will probably be analysing the information obtained by the Endeavour ultraviolet telescope built by Auspace Ltd in Canberra and to be launched, hopefully in the near future, by the US Space Shuttle. One or even two Australian launch facilities and launch vehicles may by 1992 be under development at Cape York and a revitalized Woomera, from where two satellites were launched in 1967 and 1971. CSIRO is the co-leader, with research organizations in the USSR and France, of one of 10 'Mission to Planet Earth' demonstration experiments: the International Land Cover Change Project of the ISY. This will use satellite data obtained over the period 1972-90 to compare and document changes in selected environmentally sensitive areas of the world. This project should lead to improved methods of assessing objectively the impact and extent of deforestation, pasture degradation, urban sprawl and salinification. This sort of research application would be of immense international interest, and would be a practical way of underlining Australia's concern with global change.
Also within the ISY agenda will be training, public education and other scientific investigations of global change and of the space environment. I hope that public-interest groups such as the National Space Society will consider establishing within Australia an ISY programme which complements some of the scientific activities I have mentioned here. As humans and their machines venture further and more frequently into space, we will undoubtedly, like Columbus, discover a great deal. And like Columbus, much of what we discover will not be what we expected. We cannot be sure that the effort will make us all rich - but we can feel confident that the venture will permanently alter our view of the world, and that opportunities of many kinds will arise for those with the foresight, courage and skill to take them.
Jeff Kingwell CSIRO Office of Space Science and Applications Dickson, ACT, Australia 1Geoffrey Blainey, The Tyranny of Distance: How Distance Shaped Australia's History, Sun Books, Melbourne, 1966. 2World Book Encyclopedia, 1988.
Promoting the Coalition for a Lunar Power System Powering human civilization in the 21st century with clean energy from the Moon became the focus of a unique conference conducted at the Sea Lodge in LaJolla, California, 9-11 July 1990. Organized by Netrologic Inc of San Diego, the lunar-based Solar Power Planning Workshop attracted an efite group of 25 distinguished scientists, engineers and other professionals to formulate an international Coafition for a Lunar Power System. The participants ranged from Buzz Aldrin of Starcraft Enterprises and Bryan Erb of the Canadian Space Agency, to Osamu Inoue of Shimizu Corporation and Gary McAIlister of Bechtel Corporation. The discussions centred upon the lunar power system (LPS) research of two co-inventors, David R. Criswell of DRC Associates and Robert D. Waldron of Rockwell International. Consideration was given to their key papers. 1 In his workshop introduction, Dan Greenwood, president of Netrologic, reminded the audience that im-
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plementation in the next century of Criswell and Waldron's innovative concepts could provide for the electrical needs of every person on Earth w i t h o u t d e p l e t i n g t e r r e s t r i a l resources. Instead, solar energy collected on the Moon and transmitted back to this planet to 1000 groundbased stations would then be con-
verted into abundant, pollution-free electric power. The world would no longer be critically dependent upon organic fuels and OPEC! Dr Criswell envisages that it Js realistic to expect that by 2050 the energy needs of the 10 billion population on the Earth could be met. He detailed how lunar solar power would be gathered in thin-film photovoltaics, converted into thousands of lowintensity microwave beams and projected from shared, large-diameter synthetic apertures to receivers located anywhere on Earth. The astrophysicist explained that the transmissions are in the form of photons which weigh nothing and travel at the speed of light. In establishing this new Earth/ space-based industry, Dr Waldron asserted that engineering and cost models indicate that LPS could be economically robust and profitable by 2005 with returns on investments exceeding 40% per year. Building upon the original solar power satellite (SPS) research of Peter Glaser, Criswell and Waldron maintain that such lunar power would be environmentally supportive, rather than damaging, while contributing to global peace and prosperity. Both scientists see this large-scale technological venture as a direct paybaek for the billions already invested in the Apollo lunar missions and space infrastructure. To meet dramatic rises in global energy needs, the innovators urged support for a coalition entity to promote: (a) prototype research and development by the technical community; and (b) public education on the social, political, legal and environmental implications of lunar power systems. To get away from a thermal economy would require a major upfront investment, largely groundbased, but would result in a new growth m a r k e t providing cheaper energy for the whole planet, including the expanding Third World populace. The distinguished geologist, Mel Peterson, formerly of Scripps Institution of Oceanography and N O A A , spoke on the 'Energy and environmental factors' affecting LPS which might lessen the greenhouse effect, chlorines in the atmosphere and other global pollution concerns. Dr Peter-
SPACE POLICY May 1991