Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1058 – 1067
7UDQVSRUW5HVHDUFK$UHQD±(XURSH
$XWRPDWHGDQG&RVW(IIHFWLYH0DLQWHQDQFHIRU5DLOZD\ $&(05DLO 1RHPt-LPHQH]5HGRQGRD 1LFROD%RVVRE/XLJL=HQLF$OGR0LQDUGRF)UDQN 6FKXEHUWG)UDQ]LVND+HLQLFNHH$[HO6LPURWKH D &(026$%HQDTXH0iODJD6SDLQ 1LFROD%RVVR3ROLWHFQLFRGL7RULQR'LSDUWLPHQWRGL0HFFDQLFD&VR'XFDGHJOL$EUX]]L7RULQR,WDO\ F 6HFRQG8QLYHUVLW\RI1DSOHV'HSDUWPHQWRI,QIRUPDWLRQ(QJLQHHULQJ9LD5RPD$YHUVD,WDO\ G )UDXQKRIHU,QVWLWXWHIRU1RQGHVWUXFWLYH7HVWLQJ'UHVGHQ%UDQFK0DULD5HLFKH6WUDVVH'UHVGHQ*HUPDQ\ H )UDXQKRIHU,QVWLWXWHIRU7UDQVSRUWDWLRQDQG,QIUDVWUXFWXUH6\VWHPV=HXQHUVWUDVVH'UHVGHQ*HUPDQ\ E
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
2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the © Transport Research Arena 2012 3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG6HOHFWLRQDQGSHHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RI75$ .H\ZRUGVDXWRPDWLFUDLOZD\PDLQWHQDFHRSWLPL]DWLRQUDLOZD\PRQLRULQJDQGDXVFXOWDWLRQ
,QWURGXFWLRQ 5DLOZD\ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH FDQ EH EURDGO\ VWUXFWXUHG LQWR WKH WUDFN WKH SRZHU VXSSO\ V\VWHP DQG WKH VLJQDOLQJV\VWHP7KHPDLQWHQDQFHRIDOOWKHVHVXEV\VWHPVLVDFRPSOH[LVVXHZKLFKPDNHVLWGLIILFXOWWR SODQDQGH[HFXWHWKHPDLQWHQDQFHWDVN)DFWRUVVXFKDVJHRJUDSKLFDODQGJHRORJLFDOIHDWXUHVWRSRJUDSK\ RUFOLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQVQHHGWREHFRQVLGHUHGZKHQSODQQLQJIRUPDLQWHQDQFH)XUWKHUPRUHWKHDYDLODELOLW\
&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HOID[ (PDLODGGUHVVQRHPLMLPHQH]#FHPRVDHV
1877-0428 © 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the Transport Research Arena 2012 doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.06.1082
Noemí Jimenez-Redondo et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1058 – 1067
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¼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
1059
1060
Noemí Jimenez-Redondo et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1058 – 1067
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³OLVWHQ´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³KRWVSRWV´RIKLJKHU WHPSHUDWXUHFDQEHGHWHFWHG)URPWKHWHPSRUDOFKDQJHRIWKHWKHUPDOILHOGDGGLWLRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQDERXW GHSWKDQGVL]HRIWKHGHIHFWFDQEHGHWHUPLQHG>âWDUPDQHWDODQG(OEDOORXWLDWDO@,QHDUOLHU
Noemí Jimenez-Redondo et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1058 – 1067
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±SUREHDUUDQJHPHQWLQZKLFK DFRKHUHQWSXOVHRIOLJKWDFWVDVWKHSXPSDQGDFRXQWHUSURSDJDWLQJFRQWLQXRXVZDYH&: SUREHEHDP LV VFDQQHG LQ IUHTXHQF\ DURXQG WKH 6WRNHV OLQH :KHQ WKH SXPSSUREH IUHTXHQF\ VKLIW IDOOV EHORZ WKH %ULOORXLQ JDLQ VSHFWUXP %*6 WKH SUREH ZDYH ZLOO UHFHLYH JDLQ IURP WKH SXPS YLD WKH VWLPXODWHG
1061
1062
Noemí Jimenez-Redondo et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1058 – 1067
%ULOORXLQVFDWWHULQJSURFHVV%\UHFRUGLQJWKHSUREHOHYHODVDIXQFWLRQRIWLPHDQGIUHTXHQF\DVWKHSXPS SURSDJDWHVWKH6WRNHVIUHTXHQF\FDQEHPDSSHGDVDIXQFWLRQRISRVLWLRQDORQJWKHILEHU7KHPHDVXUHG YDOXHVRI6WRNHVIUHTXHQF\FDQEHILQDOO\FRQYHUWHGLQWHPSHUDWXUHRUVWUDLQYDOXHV6SDWLDOUHVROXWLRQLV EDVLFDOO\GHWHUPLQHGE\SXPSSXOVHGXUDWLRQZLWKVKRUWHUSXOVHVDOORZLQJEHWWHUUHVROXWLRQ$SRUWDEOH LQVWUXPHQW EDVHG RQ %27'$ DQG GHSLFWHG LQ )LJ D ZLOO EH HPSOR\HG WR SHUIRUP WKH PHDVXUHPHQWV SODQQHG E\ WKLV SURMHFW7KH LQVWUXPHQW KDV GLPHQVLRQV FPuFPuFP :u/u+ DQG LQFOXGHV DOO WKHFRPSRQHQWVQHHGHGWRSHUIRUPWKHDFTXLVLWLRQVLQDIXOO\DXWRPDWLFPDQQHU
)LJD 3RUWDEOH%27'$LQVWUXPHQWE %27'$FRQILJXUDWLRQLPSOHPHQWHGE\WKHSRUWDEOHLQVWUXPHQW')% /'GLVWULEXWHGIHHGEDFNODVHUGLRGH(')$HUELXPGRSHGILEHUDPSOLILHU,0HOHFWURRSWLFLQWHQVLW\PRGXODWRU )%*ILEHU%UDJJJUDWLQJ36SRODUL]DWLRQVFUDPEOHU3'SKRWRGLRGH$0LQDUGRHWDOW
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
Noemí Jimenez-Redondo et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1058 – 1067
DGGLWLRQDO VLPXODWLRQ DQG SUHGLFWLYH WRROV FDQ EH XVHG LQ RUGHU WR FRUUHFW WKH SUHYLRXV LQWHUSRODWLRQ IXQFWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRPRUHUHDOLVWLFPRGHOV &RQVLGHULQJ WKH WUDFN FRQGLWLRQ HVWLPDWRUV WKH DFFHSWDEOH OLPLWV IRU WKH WUDFN JHRPHWU\ FDQ EH REWDLQHGGLUHFWO\IURPWKHUDLOZD\DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ0DLQWHQDQFHGHFLVLRQVFDQEHWDNHQQRWGHSHQGLQJRQ WKHDEVROXWHYDOXHRIWKHJHRPHWULFSDUDPHWHUEXWXVLQJDQHTXLYDOHQW³TXDOLW\SDUDPHWHU´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
1063
1064
Noemí Jimenez-Redondo et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1058 – 1067
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x 7DFWLFDORUPLGWHUPSODQQLQJ7KHVHOHFWLRQFRPELQDWLRQDQGDOORFDWLRQWRWLPHRISUHGLFWLYHDQG SUHYHQWLYHPDLQWHQDQFHWDVNV x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
Noemí Jimenez-Redondo et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1058 – 1067
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
1065
1066
Noemí Jimenez-Redondo et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1058 – 1067
HJ RQ SRVVHVVLRQ IRU PDLQWHQDQFH ZLWKRXW GLVUXSWLQJ WUDLQ VHUYLFHV LV DOVR DQ LPSRUWDQW LVVXH WR EH FRQVLGHUHGZKHQSODQQLQJWKHPDLQWHQDQFHWDVNVWREHH[HFXWHG7KHUHDUHPDQ\W\SHVRIFODVVLILFDWLRQV IRUPDLQWHQDQFHWDVNVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHW\SHRIDFWLYLW\WKDWQHHGVWREHSHUIRUPHGFRUUHFWLYHSUHYHQWLYH DQG SUHGLFWLYH PDLQWHQDQFH WKH W\SH RI LQWHUYHQWLRQ VFKHGXOHG URXWLQH PDLQWHQDQFH URXWLQH PDLQWHQDQFHE\GLDJQRVWLFUHVXOWVDQGH[WUDRUGLQDU\DQGH[FHSWLRQDOPDLQWHQDQFH RUHYHQDFFRUGLQJWR WKHHOHPHQWREVHUYHGPDLQWHQDQFHRIWKHWUDFNVRUUDLOHTXLSPHQWPDLQWHQDQFHRIWKHRYHUKHDGOLQHRU FDWHQDU\PDLQWHQDQFHRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHVDQGPDLQWHQDQFHRIVHFXULW\V\VWHPV $VDERYHPHQWLRQHGWKH$&(0SURMHFWIRFXVHVH[FOXVLYHO\RQWKHPDLQWHQDQFHRIWKHWUDFNLWVHOIDQG FRYHUVFRUUHFWLYHSUHYHQWLYHDQGSUHGLFWLYHRSHUDWLRQVIRUZKLFKWKHW\SHRILQWHUYHQWLRQGHSHQGVRQWKH FDSDELOLWLHV RI WKH XVHG VHQVRUV 2Q RQH KDQG WKH SUHYHQWLYH DQG FRUUHFWLYH DFWLYLWLHV DUH DGGUHVVHG E\ GHYHORSLQJ RSWLPL]DWLRQ PRGHOV IRU WKH LQWHJUDWHG VFKHGXOLQJ RI ERWK W\SHV RI RSHUDWLRQV 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG SUHGLFWLYH PDLQWHQDQFH ZLOO EH DOVR FRQVLGHUHG E\ PHDQV RI WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SUHGLFWLYH DOJRULWKPVWRHVWLPDWHWUDFNGHIHFWHYROXWLRQ7KH\SURYLGHYDOXDEOHLQIRUPDWLRQLQRUGHUWRGHILQHWKRVH VXEV\VWHPVWKDWVKRXOGEHPDQGDWRU\IRUSUHGLFWLYHPDLQWHQDQFHRUZKLFKRQHVVKRXOGQRWEHLQFOXGHGLQ 7KHPDLQPDLQWHQDQFHWDVNVGHSHQGRQWKHW\SHRIHOHPHQWWREHFRQVLGHUHG0DLQPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNFDQ EH VXPPDUL]HG LQ WDPSLQJ SURILOLQJ UHKDELOLWDWLRQ ZHOGLQJ VXSSO\ JUDYHO VXSSO\ LURQ RUH JULQGLQJ VOHHSHUVUHSODFLQJUHSODFLQJRIWKHFRXSOLQJHOHPHQWVVWUHWFKLQJRIWKHUDLORUWUDFNVUHYHUVLQJ 6\VWHPGHVFULSWLRQ 7KHGHILQLWLRQRIWKHV\VWHPVLVEDVHGRQDSODWIRUPWKDWLQWHJUDWHVDOOWKHGDWDUHJDUGLQJLQIUDVWUXFWXUH FRQGLWLRQ GDWD PHDVXUHG E\ VHQVRUV ORFDWLRQ DQG WHPSRUDO LQIRUPDWLRQ KLVWRULFDO GDWD RU DGGLWLRQDO PHDVXUHPHQWV WRJHWKHUZLWKWRROVIRUHYDOXDWLRQWUDFNFRQGLWLRQDQGSUHGLFWLRQ7KHV\VWHPLVDLPHGDW SURYLGLQJ D YDOXDEOH WRRO WR KHOS LQ WKH GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ SURFHVV 7KHUHIRUH WKH V\VWHP GHDOV ZLWK SURFHVVLQJ DQG DQDO\VLV RI WKH PHDVXUHG RU SUHGLFWHG LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH LQIUDVWUXFWXUH FRQGLWLRQ GHIHFWGHWHFWLRQDQGFRPSDULVRQZLWKKLVWRULFDOGDWDDQGRSWLPL]DWLRQPRGHOVIRUWKHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJRI WKH SUHYHQWLYH DQG FRUUHFWLYH PDLQWHQDQFH RSHUDWLRQV DFFRUGLQJ WR D PDLQWHQDQFH ZDUQLQJ OLVW DPRQJ RWKHUV 0RUHRYHU WKH GHYHORSPHQW DQG XWLOL]DWLRQ RI DGYDQFHG V\VWHPV SOD\ D NH\ UROH IRU DQ RSWLPDO PDQDJHPHQW RI LQIUDVWUXFWXUH VXEV\VWHPV LQFOXGLQJ YLVXDOL]DWLRQ E\ D *,6 WR PDQDJH WKH PRQLWRUHG LQIUDVWUXFWXUHGHWHULRUDWLRQPRGHOOLQJDQGZKROHOLIHDVVHWPDQDJHPHQWSULQFLSOHVWKDWZHUHGHVLJQHGWR VDWLVI\ H[DFWO\ UDLOZD\ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH PDLQWHQDQFH UHTXLUHPHQWV 7R SHUIRUP WKLV RQ WKH RQH KDQG WKH W\SHRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHWREHFRQVLGHUHGRQPDLQWHQDQFHRSHUDWLRQZLOOEHGHFRPSRVHGLQWRVXEV\VWHPVWKDW ZLOOEHWKHPLQLPXPXQLWWRGHDOZLWK2QWKHRWKHUKDQGDGDWDEDVHZLWKJHRJUDSKLFLQIRUPDWLRQZLOOEH GHYHORSHGLQWHJUDWLQJV\VWHPVDQGVXEV\VWHPVUHIHUHQFHGDERYH7KLVGDWDEDVHZLOOUHFHLYHGLQIRUPDWLRQ UHJDUGLQJ WKH VWDWH RI WKH FRPSRQHQWV DQG ZLOO WUDFN WKH H[HFXWLRQ RI SUHYHQWLYH DQG FRUUHFWLYH PDLQWHQDQFH DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH PHDVXUHV SURYLGHG E\ WKH VHQVRUV 7KH V\VWHP ZLOO SURYLGH UHOHYDQW LQIRUPDWLRQDQGVWDWLVWLFVDERXWSHUIRUPDQFHDQGUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHGLIIHUHQWVXEV\VWHPVWKDWZLOOEHXVHWR HYDOXDWHSUHYHQWLYHPDLQWHQDQFHRSHUDWLRQVDXWRPDWLRQRIWDVNVUHSODFHPHQWRUUHGHVLJQRIFRPSRQHQWV HWF $FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV :H DFNQRZOHGJH WKH ILQDQFLDO VXSSRUW IURP WKH (XURSHDQ &RPPXQLW\¶V 6HYHQWK )UDPHZRUN 3URJUDPPHXQGHU*UDQW$JUHHPHQWQR$&(05DLOSURMHFW7KH(&LVQRWOLDEOHIRUWKHXVHWKDW FDQEHPDGHRIWKHLQIRUPDWLRQFRQWDLQHGKHUHLQ
Noemí Jimenez-Redondo et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1058 – 1067
5HIHUHQFHV $JUDZDO*31RQOLQHDUILEHURSWLFV$FDGHPLF3UHVVUG(GLWLRQ $ODKEDEL01<7&KRDQG731HZVRQ6LPXOWDQHRXVWHPSHUDWXUHDQGVWUDLQPHDVXUHPHQWZLWKFRPELQHGVSRQWDQHRXV 5DPDQDQG%ULOORXLQVFDWWHULQJ2SW/HWW %XGDL*5RPPHUW'HNNHUDQG8]D\.D\PDN*HQHWLFDQGPHPHWLFDOJRULWKPVIRUVFKHGXOLQJUDLOZD\PDLQWHQDQFHDFWLYLWLHV 7HFKQLFDOUHSRUW(UDVPXV8QLYHUVLW\5RWWHUGDP(FRQRPHWULF,QVWLWXWH 'DNLQ-3'-3UDWW*:%LEE\-15RVV³'LVWULEXWHGRSWLFDOILEUH5DPDQWHPSHUDWXUHVHQVRUXVLQJDVHPLFRQGXFWRUOLJKW VRXUFHDQGGHWHFWRU´(OHFWURQLFV/HWWHUVYROQRSS (OEDOORXWL$6%HODWWDU1/DDLGL³7KHUPDO1RQ'HVWUXFWLYH&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRIWKH6SKHULFDO'HIHFWVLQWKH5RDGZD\V´,Q 3URFRI(&1'7 )UDQNHQVWHLQ%+HQWVFKHO'6FKXEHUW)3ULGRHKO(³+ROORZ6KDIW,QWHJUDWHG0RQLWRULQJ6\VWHPIRU5DLOURDG:KHHOV´,Q $GYDQFHGVHQVRUWHFKQRORJLHVIRUQRQGHVWUXFWLYHHYDOXDWLRQDQGVWUXFWXUDOKHDOWKPRQLWRULQJ0DUFK6DQ'LHJR &DOLIRUQLD86$%HOOLQJKDP:DVK63,(63,(3URFHHGLQJV6HULHV SS ,QQRWUDFN³,QQRWUDFN&RQFOXGLQJ7HFKQLFDO5HSRUW´ZZZLQQRWUDFNHX /HH&&3:&KLDQJ6&KL³8WLOL]DWLRQRIDGLVSHUVLRQVKLIWHGILEHUIRUVLPXOWDQHRXVPHDVXUHPHQWRIGLVWULEXWHGVWUDLQDQG WHPSHUDWXUHWKURXJK%ULOORXLQIUHTXHQF\VKLIW´,(((3KRWRQ7HFKQRO/HWW9ROSS± 0DUWHOOR6DQG7RWK3.QDSVDFN3UREOHPV$OJRULWKPVDQG&RPSXWHU,PSOHPHQWDWLRQV-RKQ:LOH\ 6RQV 0HDVXUH50V6WUXFWXUDOPRQLWRULQJZLWK)LEHU2SWLF7HFKQRORJ\$FDGHPLF3UHVVVW(GLWLRQ 0HWWDP*5 $GDPV/% +RZWRSUHSDUHDQHOHFWURQLFYHUVLRQRI\RXUDUWLFOH,Q%6-RQHV 5=6PLWK(GV ,QWURGXFWLRQWRWKHHOHFWURQLFDJHSS 1HZ
1067