Automotive air pollution in developing countries: outlook and control strategies

The Science of the Total Environment, 134 (1993) 325-334 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Amsterdam

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Automotive air pollution in developing countries: outlook and control strategies Asif Faiz a and Jacqueline Aloisi de Larderel b "World Bank, 1818 H Street, N. IF., Washington, DC, USA blndustry and Environment ~fJTee, United Natton,, Environment Programme, Tour Mirabcau, 39-43 Quai Andrd Citroen, Paris, France

ABSTRACT Automotive air pollution will intensify with increasing urbanization and the rapid pace of motorization in developing countries. Without effective measures to control automotive air pollution, 300-460 million city dwellers in developing countries will become exposed to unhealthy and dangerous levels of motor vehicle related air pollution b~, the year 2000. Administratively simple measures that encourage the use of energy efficient and environmentally efficient vehicles, cleaner fuels and better traffic management appear to be the most promising approach to controlling vehicle pollutant emissions in developing countries. These measures should be reinforced by effective regulatory, pricing and taxation policies, sound land use planning and environmentally compatible public transportation systems.

Key words: air pollution; motor vehicles; developtng countries

INTRODUCTION i° . anthropogenic emissions on a global basis, motor vehicles acConsoermg

count for about 14-16% of fossil fuel CO2, 25-30% of N O , 50% of HC, 60% of lead and as much as 60% of CO. In addition, about 28% of global CFC-12 consumption goes for motor vehicle air conditioning. The effect of automotive pollutant emissions is significantly more pronounced on urban air quality, as compared to the emission shares of moor vehicles on a regional or global basis. For example, in city centers road traffic accounts for as much as 90-95% of CO and lead, 60-70%0 of NO~ and HC, and a major share of particulates. On highly congested streets, these shares can rise even further. As motor vehicles emit contaminants in close proximity to the breathing zone of people, they not only pose a greater health risk but are frequently a source of public annoyance and vociferous public complaint. 0048-9697/93/$06.00 © 1993 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. All rights reserved

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A. FAIZ AND J.A. DE LARDEREL

MAGNITUDE OF THE PROBLEM IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Order of magnitude estimates based on vehicle registrations, fuel consumption, esti~ted vehicle-kin of travel (VKT) and currently adopted emission standards suuest the regional distribution of motor vehicle use and pollutant emissions shown in Table 1. The non-OECD countries together account for about 20% of the global automobile population, 35% of trucks and buses and about 25% of the global transport energy consumption. By comparison, the United States alone consumes about 35% of the world's transport energy. The global distribution of pollutant emissions reflects the differen~ in the intensity of transport use between developing and industriali~d countries. There are, however, marked differences among the developing countries. In 1986, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Venezuela col. lectively had almost twice as many automobiles as all the developing countries in East and South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Taiwan with 19 million inhabitants had 37% more automobiles than China with a population of over one billion people. Furthermore, motor vehicles tend to be concentrated in the large metropolitan areas in developing countries. In Mexico for example, over 50% of the country's automobiles are to be found in Mexico City, about one-fourth of the Brazilian vehicle fleet operates in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area and in India nearly a quarter of the nation's vehicle fleet circulates in five cities ~- Bombay, Calcutta, Delhi, Madras and Bangaiore. The figures in Table 1 can easily lead to the conclusion that automotive TABLE I Regional distribution of motor vehicles and pollutant emissions Region

Motor vehicles

Automotive emissions {1985)~

Automobiles Trucks Esti~,,ated CO~ (1986) ~ buses VHT b ~986) {1985) OECD Countr~ 80% Non-OECD Countries Eastern Euro~ c ~, Africa, Asia and i~tin America~ 13%

CO

NO~

HC

66%

8 !%

76%

74%

78%

?'~o

I~/0

~,

8%

1 I%

10%

IIY'/o

24%

!?~,

16%

15%

12%

13°/,,

WKT, vehicle-kin of travel, bTwo~-Jthree~wh~led vehicles not included, ~Includin8 f o r ~ r USSR, former ~ s t Germany (DDR) and Yugoslavia. ~Hon8 Kong, Singapore, Republic of South Africa, Taiwa., Turkey and petroleumproducing ~ u n t ~ s of the Middle East and North Africa am included in this group. Souses: MVMA, 1989; Parson, 1989; Walsh, 1990.

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327

air pollution is mainly a problem of OECD countries, primarily North America, Western Europe and Japan. While air pollutio~ from motor vehicles may not pose a serious threat to human health and welfare in much of the developing world today (except for some highly industrialized regions and megacities), two basic considerations point to a worsening situation over the next decade: • the fast pace of urbanization (almost one-half of the world's population will be living in urban areas by year 2000), the concentration of motor vehicle fleets in major metropolitan areas and the increasing reliance on road transport for freight and passenger transport (Faiz et al., 1990). • the rapid increase in the rate of motorization; between 1988 and 2000 the annual demand for motor vehicles in developing countries is estimated to increase by 220% and in Eastern Europe by 133% compared to 10% in OECD countries (Karmokolias, 1990). Societies dependent on the motor vehicle consume significantly more energy to move people and goods. The average per capita gasoline consumption in the US cities is twice as high as in Australian cities, over four times that in European cities and over ten times more than in the Asian cities of Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong. Intensive land use conversely is correlated with shorter trip lengths and greater dependence on public bus and rail transit systems (Brown and Jacobson, 1987). The increase in vehicle ownership, combined with the growth in VKT and poorly-controlled emissions, could rapidly escalate the shares of non-OECD countries (particularly higher-income developing countries)in global energy consumption and pollutant em|sslon. Furthermore, the automotive pollution problem is likely to be exacerbated by special features of road transport in developing countries such as: ® the large proportion of 2.stroke engined motorcycles and three-wheelers in the vehicle population of many Asian countries and cities. For exarn~ pie, in Taiwan (high income), motorcycles accounted for 76% of the registered motor vehicle fleet in 1988. In India (low income) two and three-wheeled motor vehicles had a 65% share of the national vehicle fleet in 1989; • large fleets of highly.polluting 2-stroke engined automobiles (e.g. Wart° burgs and Trabants) in Eastern European countries; Hungary alone ha~ about 700 000 of these vehicles; ® insufficient urban road space in many Asian and African countries partieularly the ratio of local streets and collectors/distributors to arterials; Bangkok typifies this problem, with slow travel speeds and traffic coni

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A. FAIZ .AND J.A. DIE LAItDEREL

gestion contributing significantly to high concentrations of carbon monoxide and particulate matter; poor fuel quality -- particularly the high lead content of gasoline and the high sulfur content of diesel; high proportion of buses, taxis and trucks in the traffic stream, often mixed with tractors and slow-moving non-motorized vehicles; inadequate vehicular emission controls and poor vehicle maintenance which is further exacerbated by overloading particularly in the case of trucks and buses; higher average age of the vehicle fleet and very low scrappage rates; the average age of the vehicle fl~t in many developing countries is often in excess of 10-15 years, partly because of the more moderate climate,

Available information, albeit fragmented, provides significant evidence of the increasing contribution of motor vehicles to poor air quality in the developing world, In general, there is a worsening of air quality in developing countries compared to an increasingly improving trend in OECD countries (GEMS, 1988). Atmospheric pollutants commonly associated with motor vehicles (CO, NOx, SO. particulate matter and lead) often exceed the WHO Guidelines in many large cities in developing countries such as Mexico City, SaG Paulo and Santiago in Latin America; lbadan and Lagos in Africa; nearly all the megacities in Asia (notably Bangkok, Bombay, Jakarta, Manila and Seoul) and some of the second-order urban centers such as Medan in Indonesia and Kuala Lumpur/Klang Valley in Malaysia; Ankara, Cairo and Tehran in the Middle East; and most of the major urban centers in Eastern Europe, e,g. Belgrade, Budapest, lstanbul and Sarajevo. Mexico City today is by far the most populous and the most polluted metropolis in the world. If unchecked, these trends could lead to severe air pollution problems in many developing countries, comparable to the scale presently observed in Mexico City. With few exceptions, road transport accounts for a major share of pollutant emissions (CO, HC, NO~ and particulates) in urban areas in both developing and industrialized countries (Table 2). The share of transport becomes significantly higher in cities with a sunny, tropical climate (Mexico City, Manila) or cities that have effectively controlled other sources of air pollution, such as emissions from power plants, industry and space heating (e,g. London, Gothenburg). Based on the evidence summarized in Table 2, the magnitude of pollutant emissions in urban areas in developing countries is as severe and often exceeds that in cities of industrialized countries (com. pare Mexico City with Los Angeles; Manila with Osaka; Ankara with Gothenburg), Even the limited evidence presented here points to the growing seriousness of urban air pollution in developing countries and the significant contribution of road transport to the problem.

OUTLOOK AND CONTROL OF AUTOMOTIVEAIR POLLUTION

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TABLE 2 Contribution of road transport to air pollution in selected cities City

Year

Total pollutants from all sources (t X 103/year)

Latin America, Asia and Eastern Europe Mexico City 1987 5027 1989 4356 Santiago 1988 214 Sac Paulo 1977 2629 1981 1987 Beijing 1989 Bombay 1982 Kuala Lumpur 1987 Kuwait 1987 Manila 1987 Seoul 1983 Sarajevo 1983 Ankara 1990

3150 2110 NA 546 435 1260 496 NA NA 690 (est.)

OECD Countries (excluding Turkey) Athens 1976a 394 1990b 722 Gothenburg 1980a 124 London 1978 1200 Los Angeles 1976a 4698~ !985 3461 Munich 1974/5 213 Osaka 1982 !4!

Percent attributable to road transport CO

HC

NOx

SOx

SPM

Total

99 97 81 94 96 94 39 86 97 96 93 15 82 77

89 52 48 72 83 76 75 20 95 76 82 40 35 62

64 74 90 73 89 89 46 44 46 26 73 60 68 44

2 20 13 9 26 59 NA NA I II 12 7 5 3

9 2 6 7 24 22 NA 3 46 3 60 35 23 2

80 76 63 74 86 86 NA 31 79 33 "iI 35 NA 57

97 100 96 97 99 87 82 100

81 79 89 94 61 460 96 17

51 76 70 65 71 59 69 60

6 8 2 5 12 29 12 43

18 !3 50 46 NA 5 56 24

59 90 78 86 NA 63 73 59

' aPercent shares apply to all transport. Motor vehicles account for 75-95 of the transport share. bpercentage shares apply to road transport only, HC is VOC, SPM includes smoke. ~Excluding suspended particulate matter (SPM); estimated at about 600000 tons in 1985. dOnly reactive organic gases (ROG). Sources: Faiz and Carbajo, 1991: Webster, 1991. REGIONAL PRIORITIES

The response to motor vehicle induced air pollution in developing countries has to be differentiated by region and cour~try. In the first instance, attention should focus on Latin America as it has the highest level of urbanization and motorization - - mostly the major urban centers in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile and Venezuela and other cities with environmentally-sensitive locations (e.g. Bogota, Quito, Guatemala City).

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A. FAIZ AND J.A, DE LARDEREL

East Asian cities with high levels of motorization such as Seoul, Bangkok, Manila, Kuala Lumpur. Jakarta also merit priority consideration, with a major effort targeted at diesel-fueled vehicles and two-stroke engined vehicles (motorcycles and three-wheelers). Countermeasures would also be needed in the large urban centers of Eastern Europe and the Middle East (e.g. Ankara. Kuwait, Tehran, Budapest. Belgrade) but such measures should be balanced against other air pollution abatement priorities, for example those related to industry, power generation and space heating. Interventions in the megacities of Asia with low levels of motorization (e.g. Bombay, Calcutta, Beijing, Shanghai. Karachi) may be warranted ~ a u s e of the sheer number of vehicles and people involved, but may have to be balanced against other environmental issues such as water quality, solid waste disposal and indoor air pollution. Apart from a few major cities such as Cairo, Lagos, Ibadan and Nairobi. air pollution from motor vehicles is not likely to be a major environmental problem in much of Africa, except for localized episodes of elevated lead and CO concentrations and increased particulate levels in urban areas, in conjunction with special meteorological conditions such as the Harmattan in the West Africa region. On balance, indoor air pollution from the use of biomass fuels and kerosene may be a more significant issue in Sub-Saharan Africa with a direct bearing on the health of women and children (de Koning, 1988), VEHICLE EMISSION CONTROL STRATEGIES

Without exce~t'v¢ Government intervention, it appears unlikely that the growth in road transportation could be curbed in developing countries. Fiscal and regulatory measures to restrict motor vehicle ownership use often impose a heavy economic burden. A wide range of options are available to combat air pollution from motor vehicles varying from direct mechanical/electronic control of emissions to broader demand and traffic management measures aimed at curbing the use of motor vehicles and ensuring smoother traffic flows. Most of these options have been tried and tested over the past two decades in many developed and some developing countries. International experience in controlling air pollution can serve as an important guide for countries contemplating the implementation of air pollution countermeasures. The reduction and control of emissions from motor vehicle, along with more efficient utilization of motor vehicles, should be the aim of air pollution abatement policies (Faiz and Carbajo, 1991). The introduction of vehicle emission controls, however, imposes significant economic and social costs while the benefits may be amorphous and often unproven and the beneficiaries difficult to identify. The motor vehicle and oil industries may be required to develop or change their products while striving to maintain their competitiveness. In addition, monitoring compli-

OUTLOOK AND CONTROL OF AUTOMOTIVE AIR POLLUTION

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ance with standards may add an extra administrative and financial burden on government resources. In many developing countries, the burden of adjustment for domestic oil refineries or small-scale motor vehicle manufacturing and assembly units may be so large that without Government support they might not be able to al~orb the additional costs or compete with cheaper imports. In any event~ vehicles and fuels become more expensive and maintenance costs may also increase if inspection tests are to be passed. Major urban areas are the primary generators of air pollution and in most developing countries, the problem is confined to megacities or metropolitan areas with unique meteorological or topographic conditions. Hence, an assessment of ambient pollutant concentrations and their distribution in space and time is essential to determine the causes of air quality problems and their local and area-wide characteristics. Such an assessment should be combined with an inventory of pollutant emissions by major sources, even if it is based on approximate estimates and subjective assessments. An emissions inventory serves as a baseline to determine the contribution of motor vehicles to pollutant emissions and for targeting emission control programs. The scope of vehicle emission control programs needs to be differentiated by specific country circumstances with respect to level of motorization, the degree and pace of urbanization and the strength of national and local institutions charged with environmental protection and air quality programs. These characteristics are often closely related with the level of economic development and national income. Emission control programs that lead to tangible economic benefits besides improving air quality are likely to find the greatest receptivity. Emission control strategies for reducing greenhouse and conventional pol. lutants are outlined below for countries at different levels of economic development or stage of motorization. The set of actions prescribed for all developing countries are generally associated with reduced vehicle operation and maintenance costs, improved road safety and reduced energy consumption, besides air quality improvements. The choice of control options, however, will depend on the characteristics of the air pollution problem and specific circumstances of individual developing countries. A. ALL DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

(a) Fuel economy and emission standards for new vehicles whether imported or domestically assembled/manufactured. (b) Fiscal incentives to encourage marketing and use of fuel-efficient vehicles and cleaner fuels (c) Ban on use of CFCs in automotive air.conditioning. (d) Improvements in fuel quality; phase down of lead content of gasoline to 0.! g/litre and sulfur to 0.3% by weight. (e) Crankcase and evaporative emission controls on all new vehicles and

332

(0 (g) (h) (i~ (j)

A. FAIZ A N D J,A,DE LARDEREL

'Stage 1' refuelling controls (i.e. control of HC vapors between delivery tanker and storage tank). Inspection and maintenance programs (at least in major cities) to supplement vehicle safety inspection programs. Traffic m a n a ~ n t programs in major cities. Improvements in public transportation and encouragement of nonmotorized modes. Restrictions on motorized traffic in s~ified urban zones 1-- exclusive p~estfian zone; traffic calming. Where CNO/LPO available, conversion of paratransit vehicles and captive fleets to run on these fuels instead of conventional fuels.

B, MIDDLE-INCOME OR RAPIDLY MOTORIZING DEVELOPINO COUNTRIES-AVERAGE GROWTH IN MOTORIZATION OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS EXCEEDS 5% PER ANNUM (IN ADDITION TO MEASURES UNDER A)

(a) Certification or type approval standards for new vehicles and systematic emissions testing and inspection programs for target vehicles. (b) Non-catalytic exhaust emission controls (e,g. air pump, ignition timing, exhaust gas recirculation). (c) Reformulated/oxygenated fuels to allow further reduction or elimination of lead in fuel. (d) Roadside emission checks (particularly smoke emission from diesel vehicles), (e) Phased substitution of conventional two-stroke by four-stroke engines in new motorcycles and other two to three wheeled vehicles. (f) Engine replacement programs for older non-conforming vehicles, (l) Use of alternative fuels in buses, taxis and other high-mileage vehicles operatir~ in urban areas, (h) Replacement of conventional buses by electric trolley buses and light rail transit in high density corridors, C, UPPER INCOME O R MOTORIZED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES~NUMBER OF PERSONS PER VEHICLE LESS T H A N I0 (IN ADDITION TO O R IN PLACE OF MEASURES U N D E R A A N D B)

(a) Recall and warranty programs for new vehicles and comprehensive emissions testing and inspection programs for all vehicles. (b) Advanced exhaust emission controls in new vehicles (three-way closed-loop converters for vehicles with spark-ignition engines and trap oxidizers for vehicles with diesel compression engines), (c) Unleaded gasoline and low-sulfur diesel (0.05% by weight).

OUTLOOK A N D CONTROL OF AUTOMOTIVE AIR POLLUTION

~33

(d) Advanced centrally-administered vehicle inspection and maintenance programs. (e) Area licensing and electronic pricing schemes. (f) Stage II refuelling controls (i.e. control of HC vapor between fuel pump and the vehicle). (g) Prohibition on use of conventional two-stroke motorcycles. (h) Retrofitting and scrapping programs for older non-conforming vehicles. (i) Advanced area-wide traffic control and management schemes. Policy measures to reduce or limit the growth of vehicle ownership and use are an important adjunct to vehicle emission control programs. Such measures can be divided into three groups: coercive measures such as no-drive days, parking prohibitions, etc.; incentives to use environmentally compatible forms of transportation such as bus and light rail transit and bicycles; and land-use planning to reduce the amount of travel required by establishing commercial and industrial employment sources closer to residential areas. Coercive measures directed toward the general public are usually unpopular (except in situations where ambient pollutant levels have reached unacceptable levels as in Mexico City) and difficult to sustain in the face of the resulting political pressure and evasion. They also have very poor cost effectiveness if the full social costs (in wasted time, inconvenience, etc.) are counted in. Demand management measures are usually taken not only for emission reduction purposes, but to cover a wide field of achievable aims, such as noise reduction, improving traffic safety and quality of life, especially in residential areas and city centers. Land-use planning, so that residential areas are closer to areas of significant employment generation, has some potential for limiting growth in transportation requirements in the long run. This potential is limited, however, by the tendency of workers to change employment, the number of multiworker households, the tendency to choose residence locations based on other criteria and the fact that heavy industry, in particular, is an unattractive neighbor. (USEPA, 1990; Faiz and Carbajo, 1991). In many developing countries environmental pollution abatement responsibilities are generally shared by both the central and local governments. A mechanism for close coordination between different levels of government is necessary when developing and implementing environmental policies. Central government commonly establishes air quality standards and emission limits for new and in.use vehicles while local (municipal) governments exercise control and ensure compliance. Central and local governments also cooperate in traffic management, transport pricing, control of land use and research. Since road transport movements and their impacts on health and

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A. FAIZ AND J.A. DE LARDEREL

well-being are largely concentrated in urban areas, municipal authorities should reinforce national policies by taking proper steps to control the use of vehicles and transport infrastructures (OECD 1988). Strong interagency coordination is viral for the successful implementation of air pollution abatement programs. REFERENCES I L,R. Brown and J,L, Jacobsen, The Future of Urbanization: Facing the Ecological and Economic Constraints;World Watch Paper 77. World Watch Institute. Washington, D,C, 1987. 2 H.W. de Koning, Air Pollution in African Villages and Cities; Report No. WHO/PEPI88.6, WHO, Oeneva. 1988r. 3 A. Pa~, K, Sinha, M.P. Walsh and A. Varma, 1990. Automotive Air Pollution: Issues and Options in Developing Countries. Report WPS 492, Infrastructure and Urban Development Department, The World Bank, August 1990. 4 A, ~iz and J. Carbajo, Automotive Air Pollution Control: Strategic Options for Developing Countries. Infrastructure and Urban Development Department, World Bank, Washington, D.C. 1991. 5 0 l o b a l Environment Monitoring System (GEMS), Assessment of' Urban Air Quality. UNEP, Nairobi and WHO, Geneva. Monitoring and Assessment Research Centre, London, 1988. 6 Y. Karmokolias, Automotive Industry ~- Trends and Prospects for Investment in Developing Countries, IFC Discussion Paper No. 7, World Bank, Washington, DC, 1990. 7 Motor Vehicle Manufacturer's Association (MVMA),Facts and Figures. Washington,

DC, 1989. 80ECD, Transport and Environment, Paris, 1988. 9 E.A. Parson, The Transport Sector and Global Warming. Background Study of eTA Oiobal Warming Report. J.F. Kenned), School of Government, Cambridge, Mass. 1989. I0 USEPA, Volatile Organic Components from On-Reed Vehicles. Sour~s and Control Options. Paper Prepared for the Working Group on Volatile Organic Components, LonB-Remse Tnmsboundary Air Pollution Convention. UNECF (draft). 1990. !1 M.P. Walsh, Motor Vehicles and the Environment- AM. Research Agenda, in Proceedinss of the International Conference on Automotive Industry and the Environ. merit, (~neva, Switzerland, November 1990, 25 pp. 1990. 12 A. Webster, Pa~nal Communication, OEM$ Monitoring and Assessment Research Center, London, 1991.