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Automotive electronics
Market reports Process control equ ipment The USA once dominated the process control market in terms of total sales, total purchases and technology. Recently, US sales have dropped below ½ of the world market and foreign technological advances are beginning to pace US domestic advances. Despite this trend, the industrial process control market for continuous processes looks excellent, according to a market analysis from Creative Strategies International (CSI). Worldwide sales of continuous process control systems will reach nearly $11 000M by 1985, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 10.1%. According to the report, the increasing dominance of non-US companies is due to growth of the world market for process control and to technology and business skills growth of the rest of the world and not to a stagnant or unaggressive US process control industry. Revenues from the sale of digital controllers are expected to see an 11% compound annual growth rate through 1985. This figure, however, obscures the real impact of digital controllers in the market. Shipments of digital controllers will approach 750 000 units in 1980 and CSI forsees growth rates well above 25% in the next five years. This is not reflected in the sales projections because, unlike other process control components, the price of digital controllers is expected to continue to decline. (For further information contact Creative Strategies
International, 4340 Stevens Creek Bird, Suite 275, San Jose, California 95129, USA. Tel: (408) 249-7550)
Microprocessors and microcomputers Worldwide sales of microprocessors and microcomputer products will top $5000M by 1985, reflecting a compound growth rate of 32%. Despite the participation of more than 100 competitors, the industry remains fairly concentrated, with the top four firms accounting for 80% of revenues, according to a market analysis from Creative Strategies International (CSl).
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In its report, CSI has segmented the market four ways: by product type (microprocessor chips, microcomputer chips, microcomputer boards, general-purpose microcomputer nucleus systems and microcomputer development systems); and by end-user industry distribution. The USA is the major consumer of microprocessor-based products, accounting for nearly 60% of the total market, though by 1985, this will decrease to less than 50% through the maturiffg of technological sophistication in other countries. Most of the difference will be made up by the Japanese and Western European markets, which together will show an increase of nearly 35% in the world market. Microcomputer boards will see the largest increase in unit shipments through 1985. M icroprocessor an d microcomputer chips, as well as general-purpose microcomputer nucleus systems, will all grow at rates greater than 30%. Currently, 8-bit devices predominate in all five product types, but over the next five years the highest growth segments will be 16- and 32bit devices. These advanced architectures will grow at the expense of 4-bit MPUs and to some extent the 8-bit versions. The telecommunications equipment market, with its move from analogue to digital technology, represents one of the high growth markets for ICs and is seen as an ideal marketplace for the microprocessor. The Japanese will continue to chip away at the production lead now held by the USA as they begin to take a pacesetting role in new product inovation. However, CSl estimate that US firms still have a 3- to S-year lead in most segments and are beginning to reevaluate their strategies in order to retain this lead. Special attention is given to unit pricing trend analyses and vendor market share analyses for each product segment and the report includes a strategic analysis of innovators and second sourcers as they move between components and systems.
(Creative Strategies International, 4340 Stevens Creek Bird, Suite 275, San Jose, California, USA. Tel: (408) 249- 7550)
Automotive electronics A report from Frost & Sullivan on the European market for nonentertainment automotive electronics forecasts a four-fold increase to $426M by 1985. F&S say that the inroads of electronics will cause rapid structural change at all levels of the European automotive and supply industries. Areas of particularly large growth seen by F&S include electronic ignition and spark advance systems, electronic fuel injection modules and carburetors, digital engine management modules, automatic transmission control and electronic clocks and dashboard displays. They also see a trend towards multiplexed wiring harnesses, especially in power management systems. Stiff fuel consumption, emission and safety regulations in the USA and Japan, which have spurred work on electronic fuel and engine management systems in those countries, have put European OEMs and systems houses at a disadvantage as they have not had the financial incentive to develop such systems for a large volume domestic market. Such companies are also under pressure in the information area (route guidance, displays, trip computers etc.) and European semiconductor firms such as Siemens and AEG-Telefunken are having an impact on the market. F&S's view is that VLSI will further diminish the automotive systems houses' ability to
compete. (Frost & Suflivan Inc., 104 Fulton Street, New York, N Y 10038, USA. Tel: (212)233-1080)
International Resource Development have also produced a report on automotive electronics, but for the US market. They forecast more than $1500M of microprocessors, sensors and other electronic components and systems in US cars by 1985. They predict that the main trend will be away from fuel saving and pollution control to safety subsystems. Wiring harnesses are expected to be replaced by a single multiplexed bus, probably using optical fibres, saving copper and thus cost and weight. However, this is only likely to become viable when suitable LSI multiplexers are manufactured for less than $3 each, according to I RD.
microprocessors and microsystems
Motorola and National Semiconductor are seen to be well placed for strong growth in the market. I RD also believe that there will be major opportunities for manufacturers of electronic test equipment, particularly since higher skill levels will be needed to service the new electronic subsystems and replacement of entire subsystems, costing perhaps $150, may well be required even for small component failures. (International Resource Development Inc., 30 High Street, Norwalk, CT 06851, USA)
Microprofessor Prof. Frank Summer has been appointed to the Barclays Chair of Microprocessor Applications in Industry at the University of Manchester. He was appointed to the Chair of Computer Science there 13 years ago and has, in the last six years, become more and more involved in the industrial and commercial applications of computers, applications increasingly dominated by microprocessors.
AMD's quality standards Advanced Micro Devices has reaffirmed its quality standards and outlined a programme to maintain present standards and, in the near future, increase product quality levels. Responding to reports that Japanese quality standards were unnecessarily high and not cost effective, a company spokesman said that AMD was committed to offering quality second to none and that by the end of the current fiscal year (March 1981) Advanced Micro Devices would guarantee an outgoing quality level equal to or better than any manufacturer in the world: to criticize a strategy employed by foreign competition that was, in fact, AMD's market strategy would be unworthy. As part of their continuing quality assurance, AMD have initiated a company-wide programme of quality
vol 5 no I/an/feb 1981
A prototype teachable robot manipulator is being developed by Remek Automation and British Robotic Systems which is claimed to be far more adaptable than the current range o f pick-and-place machines, yet not as complex or expensive as the latest generation of robots. Although still a test bed project, Remek estimate that when the final version is marketed in early 1981, its price will be under £10 000. The control system is based on the company's 16-bit microprocessor standard control package and the robot works on a programmable point-to-point method which provides over 250 discrete positions. The option o f continuous path operation will be avail able later. Programming is carried out using a manual joystick control with closed circuit TV viewing (CCTV). The control unit can be used remotely on a wander lead. Remek expect to be able to produce a lower cost version
which can be taught without needing CCTV. (The unit shown does not include CCTV).
awareness and involvement that involves the institution of quality circles, a phenomenon well known and widely practised in Japan and increasingly so in the USA.
IBM interest group Information interchange about microcomputer systems equivalent to IBM's 360 or 370 mainframes is the aim of Group/380, a group concerned with all the facets of 360/370 microcomputers, with emphasis on available software. 'Group/380 is a response to recent hardware developments,' according to Mokurai Cherlin, the group's founder. 'A bitslice 370 emulator is available now; Datamation reports that three
major firms have each put the 370 instruction set on a single chip; and original 360 and 370 systems are now selling used at microcomputer prices. The pace of 360/370 microcomputer development is still building, simply because there is more software of all kinds in existence for 360/370 systems than for all general microcomputers combined.' Many Group/380 members will be interested in microsystems using their previous experience with 360/370 mainframes, though the major attraction is the pool of software. Membership requests ($10 a year for individuals, $25 for organizations) and questions about software data submittal or other Group/380 activities can be sent to: Mokurai Cherlin, Group/380, PO Box 1131, Mount Shasta, California 96067, USA.
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International, 4340 Stevens Creek Bird, Suite 275, San Jose, California 95129, USA. Tel: (408) 249-7550)
Microprocessors and microcomputers Worldwide sales of microprocessors and microcomputer products will top $5000M by 1985, reflecting a compound growth rate of 32%. Despite the participation of more than 100 competitors, the industry remains fairly concentrated, with the top four firms accounting for 80% of revenues, according to a market analysis from Creative Strategies International (CSl).
52
In its report, CSI has segmented the market four ways: by product type (microprocessor chips, microcomputer chips, microcomputer boards, general-purpose microcomputer nucleus systems and microcomputer development systems); and by end-user industry distribution. The USA is the major consumer of microprocessor-based products, accounting for nearly 60% of the total market, though by 1985, this will decrease to less than 50% through the maturiffg of technological sophistication in other countries. Most of the difference will be made up by the Japanese and Western European markets, which together will show an increase of nearly 35% in the world market. Microcomputer boards will see the largest increase in unit shipments through 1985. M icroprocessor an d microcomputer chips, as well as general-purpose microcomputer nucleus systems, will all grow at rates greater than 30%. Currently, 8-bit devices predominate in all five product types, but over the next five years the highest growth segments will be 16- and 32bit devices. These advanced architectures will grow at the expense of 4-bit MPUs and to some extent the 8-bit versions. The telecommunications equipment market, with its move from analogue to digital technology, represents one of the high growth markets for ICs and is seen as an ideal marketplace for the microprocessor. The Japanese will continue to chip away at the production lead now held by the USA as they begin to take a pacesetting role in new product inovation. However, CSl estimate that US firms still have a 3- to S-year lead in most segments and are beginning to reevaluate their strategies in order to retain this lead. Special attention is given to unit pricing trend analyses and vendor market share analyses for each product segment and the report includes a strategic analysis of innovators and second sourcers as they move between components and systems.
(Creative Strategies International, 4340 Stevens Creek Bird, Suite 275, San Jose, California, USA. Tel: (408) 249- 7550)
Automotive electronics A report from Frost & Sullivan on the European market for nonentertainment automotive electronics forecasts a four-fold increase to $426M by 1985. F&S say that the inroads of electronics will cause rapid structural change at all levels of the European automotive and supply industries. Areas of particularly large growth seen by F&S include electronic ignition and spark advance systems, electronic fuel injection modules and carburetors, digital engine management modules, automatic transmission control and electronic clocks and dashboard displays. They also see a trend towards multiplexed wiring harnesses, especially in power management systems. Stiff fuel consumption, emission and safety regulations in the USA and Japan, which have spurred work on electronic fuel and engine management systems in those countries, have put European OEMs and systems houses at a disadvantage as they have not had the financial incentive to develop such systems for a large volume domestic market. Such companies are also under pressure in the information area (route guidance, displays, trip computers etc.) and European semiconductor firms such as Siemens and AEG-Telefunken are having an impact on the market. F&S's view is that VLSI will further diminish the automotive systems houses' ability to
compete. (Frost & Suflivan Inc., 104 Fulton Street, New York, N Y 10038, USA. Tel: (212)233-1080)
International Resource Development have also produced a report on automotive electronics, but for the US market. They forecast more than $1500M of microprocessors, sensors and other electronic components and systems in US cars by 1985. They predict that the main trend will be away from fuel saving and pollution control to safety subsystems. Wiring harnesses are expected to be replaced by a single multiplexed bus, probably using optical fibres, saving copper and thus cost and weight. However, this is only likely to become viable when suitable LSI multiplexers are manufactured for less than $3 each, according to I RD.
microprocessors and microsystems
Motorola and National Semiconductor are seen to be well placed for strong growth in the market. I RD also believe that there will be major opportunities for manufacturers of electronic test equipment, particularly since higher skill levels will be needed to service the new electronic subsystems and replacement of entire subsystems, costing perhaps $150, may well be required even for small component failures. (International Resource Development Inc., 30 High Street, Norwalk, CT 06851, USA)
Microprofessor Prof. Frank Summer has been appointed to the Barclays Chair of Microprocessor Applications in Industry at the University of Manchester. He was appointed to the Chair of Computer Science there 13 years ago and has, in the last six years, become more and more involved in the industrial and commercial applications of computers, applications increasingly dominated by microprocessors.
AMD's quality standards Advanced Micro Devices has reaffirmed its quality standards and outlined a programme to maintain present standards and, in the near future, increase product quality levels. Responding to reports that Japanese quality standards were unnecessarily high and not cost effective, a company spokesman said that AMD was committed to offering quality second to none and that by the end of the current fiscal year (March 1981) Advanced Micro Devices would guarantee an outgoing quality level equal to or better than any manufacturer in the world: to criticize a strategy employed by foreign competition that was, in fact, AMD's market strategy would be unworthy. As part of their continuing quality assurance, AMD have initiated a company-wide programme of quality
vol 5 no I/an/feb 1981
A prototype teachable robot manipulator is being developed by Remek Automation and British Robotic Systems which is claimed to be far more adaptable than the current range o f pick-and-place machines, yet not as complex or expensive as the latest generation of robots. Although still a test bed project, Remek estimate that when the final version is marketed in early 1981, its price will be under £10 000. The control system is based on the company's 16-bit microprocessor standard control package and the robot works on a programmable point-to-point method which provides over 250 discrete positions. The option o f continuous path operation will be avail able later. Programming is carried out using a manual joystick control with closed circuit TV viewing (CCTV). The control unit can be used remotely on a wander lead. Remek expect to be able to produce a lower cost version
which can be taught without needing CCTV. (The unit shown does not include CCTV).
awareness and involvement that involves the institution of quality circles, a phenomenon well known and widely practised in Japan and increasingly so in the USA.
IBM interest group Information interchange about microcomputer systems equivalent to IBM's 360 or 370 mainframes is the aim of Group/380, a group concerned with all the facets of 360/370 microcomputers, with emphasis on available software. 'Group/380 is a response to recent hardware developments,' according to Mokurai Cherlin, the group's founder. 'A bitslice 370 emulator is available now; Datamation reports that three
major firms have each put the 370 instruction set on a single chip; and original 360 and 370 systems are now selling used at microcomputer prices. The pace of 360/370 microcomputer development is still building, simply because there is more software of all kinds in existence for 360/370 systems than for all general microcomputers combined.' Many Group/380 members will be interested in microsystems using their previous experience with 360/370 mainframes, though the major attraction is the pool of software. Membership requests ($10 a year for individuals, $25 for organizations) and questions about software data submittal or other Group/380 activities can be sent to: Mokurai Cherlin, Group/380, PO Box 1131, Mount Shasta, California 96067, USA.
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