Averting catastrophe

order that elements may be identified in their active role in the geosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere. Advances are being made in a difficult field of study; the conference clearly illustrates that a broad-based understanding of the important processes has been established, albeit much still remains to be accomplished in order to quantify the processes. I recommend this book to a wide audience, but especially to those who are interested in understanding the role of elements in biological systems. E.I. Hamilton Plymouth (United Kingdom) Averting Catastrophe, by J.G. Morone and E.J. Woodhead, University of California Press, Berkeley, Los Angeles and London, 1986,215 pp. Price: U.S.$17.95. The ingredients for a catastrophe are an integral part of all natural systems and are also potentially present in many aspects of modern technology. Has man developed a strategy to avert potential catastrophies? This book considers whether or not man has a deliberate process through which risks are identified, monitored, evaluated and then reduced. An examination is made of toxic chemicals, nuclear power, recombinant DNA research, threat to the ozone layer, the Greenhouse threat, all of which have the making of a catastrophe. Each topic is examined in order to identify why a catastrophe has not occurred, for example in the case of chemicals the trial and error approach seems to have worked; for nuclear power the discussion centres upon containment of fission products in the event of a core melt down. Since this book was written the Chernobyl accident (core disruption) has taken place and provides a good example of the importance of human error, which is considered as cause for concern in this book. However, there are limits beyond which the operation of major technologies cannot function if more and more controls are required. Indeed one may argue that the more controls that there are the greater chance of mistakes being made. Recombinant DNA research is considered to have a low risk factor; a worst-case event can be contained, yet there is considerable discussion of the propriety of intervention into the human gene structure. Catastrophies related to the depletion of the ozone layer and the Greenhouse effect require more scientific information than we have at present; there is no case for stopping the present technology in case some serious effect is likely to occur in the future. Indeed the history of man, and his acceptance of technological innovations, reflects the attitude of a step by step appraisal of possible harmful effects, their nature and extent. In identifying systems for averting catastrophies it is suggested that indepth studies can identify problems; each problem requires a different decisionmaking strategy; to abandon the trial and error approach in favour of the analytic approach. The authors suggest a need to create conditions which should lead to a disaster then make adjustments when required by use of the trial and error method. The authors advocate more efficient or effective regula-

272 tion of risk; the U.S.A. is cited as a count ry t h a t has done more t han is realised in averting catastrophies related to the health of man and the safe use of modern technology. After reading this book I find it difficult to identify what are the catastrophies of concern? The authors note t h a t some may already be inbuilt into our way of life, such as those which in t heory could erupt in the future and over which man will have no control, apart from taking what action is seemed to be required at the time. This book does not consider the motivation by man in requiring new and potentially hazardous technologies, neither does it consider t hat global recognition is essential if a technology is to be stopped. Man's record in achieving global decisions is hardly one to inspire confidence. Today man has moved away from what may be described as a n a t u r a l existence and now he relies on technological achievements as part of his cultural progress. Some may argue th at we are surrounded by catastrophies. Can starvation, the use of drugs and AIDS be considered as catastrophies? Apart from those items, over which in theory man has control, the occur r ence of nat ural disasters are most certainly of more concern, for example the effects on food production as a consequence of quite small changes in climate. I have refrained from a discussion of other topics, such as nucl ear war or even conventional wars, as all can be averted, but this does not occur. While I found this book interesting reading it did not convince me t hat any new system exists for averting a catastrophe. Mention is made of altering social values, but globally this is without precedence, especially if quick gains are to be made. E.I. Hamilton

Plymouth (United Kingdom) The Future of the Oceans--A Report to the Club of Rome, by E.M. Borgese, Harvest House Ltd., Montreal, Canada, 1986, 144 pp. Price: (Paperback) $9.95. The questions raised in this book are, will the potential products of the oceans ensure our future survival or will thoughtless exploitation, pollution, and military abuse t h r e a t e n our very existence? Recognition of the potential resources contained within the ocean, such as metals, food and renewable sources of energy, is not new; this book explores how they can be used in the future, t h r o u g h various principles, albeit r a t h e r Utopian in design and implementation. Nevertheless there is nothing wrong with such approaches, and they are to be encouraged even though only a very small part is likely to be translated from t heor y into practice. On the basis t h a t marine ecosystems are less perturbed than those of the terrestrial e nvi r onm e nt they may provide conceptual models for the land. U n f o r t u n a t e l y the great difference between the two systems is t hat the land contains man who has his roots firmly entrenched in the social and cultural