Baseball attendance and fan discrimination

BASEBALL

ATTENDANCE Marshall

AND

FAN

DISCRIMINATION

H. M&off1

I. Intmduction

Previous empirical research, however, suggests that racism by fans does exist. Scully [1974] using multiple regression analysis on 57 starting pitchers found, after taking into account the pitcher's team, mix of games pitched, and race of the pitcher, that 1,969 fewer fans attended games pitched by blacks than those pitched by whites during the 1967 Major League baseball season. Scully, however, failed to take into account the influence ofmany economic,demographic and qualityof-the-game factors which have been found to have a significant impact on attendance. Because of these omissions, it is difficult to ascertain exactly what Scully's race variable is truly measuring. The attendance differences that Scully found may be due to fan discrimination or may reflect differences in the omitted factors.

Sports are an integral part of modern American society. The essence of sports is to test the abilities of the participants in an environment unencumbered by external factors where competition and survival of the fittest still prevail. Because of this feature the study of sports is attractive from a researcher's point of view since any inquiry extends beyond the sport. Of particular interest to social scientists engaged in race relations research is the question, "Does racial discrimination exist among baseball fans?" Do baseball fans stay away from games because of the presence of black players? Nearly twenty years ago Blalock Cl9671 presented several theoretical propositions concerning the degree of discrimination against blacks. Two of Blalock's propositions were: (1) to the extent that performance level is relatively independent of skill in interpersonal relations, the lower the degree of discrimination and (2) the lower the degree of purely social interaction on the job, the lower the degree of discrimination. Applying Blalock's proposition to baseball, during a game fans are involved with baseball players at a secondary level. Their contact with the players iS of very short duration, has little interpersonal intensity, and the level is superficial. Thus Blalock's propositions imply that fan discrimination should be absent from professional baseball.

Hill, Madura and Zuber Cl9821 extended Scully's analysis by examining the attendance of every game played during the 1977 baseball season. Controlling for more variables than Scully (location, weekend or night games, special conditions, quality of team and pitcher), they found that a nonwhite home-starting pitcher results in 2,052 less fans attending a game. Curiously, they also found that the race of the visiting team's starting pitcher had no statistically significant impact on attendance. The authors argue that this finding suggests that home fans are indifferent, or lack knowledge, regarding the race of the visiting team's starting pitcher. Thus, one is faced with

149

150

VOLUMENo.1&2

trying to explain why home diced behavior is inconsistent. who the home pitcher is for game and his race, but not pitcher or his race. They against nonwhite pitchers, gainst home-team pitchers, team pitchers.

fans'

prejuThey know a particular the visiting discriminate but only anot visiting

Cosvaon to both studies, is the use of individual game data as the basic unit of observation. The problem with this data base is that most of the independent variables are subject to the cossaon influences of the fluctuations that vary over the season (general interest, fan enthusiasm, time parameters, etc.). As a result, many of the regressors are highly correlated, each one reflecting the cossaon set of secular influences, and therefore, a high degree of multi collfnearity between them is very likely. The consequence is that the estimated coefficients of the model are highly sensitive to the particular observation set and to the specification of the model, and it becomes very difficult to disentangle the relative influences of the various independent variables.* One solution to resolve this problem is to use aggregate team data.

II.

nK!orrtlcal

cansiderrtials

The theoretical work of Becker 119571 suggests that If consumers have tastes for discrimination against blacks, and if PB were the money price of the output produced or sold by blacks, a consumer would act as if the net price was PB (MI). The term d represents the value of the money costs of that transaction a consumer incurs as a result of the dissatisfaction from social contact with

blacks. Thus the effect of a taste for discrimination by an economically dcuninant section ofaccmxnunity (e.g., whites) is a reduction in the consumption of black output by whites. Using Becker's framework, if baseball fans are prejudiced they will consider the race of the players in their decfsfon of whether or not to attend games. Furthermore, if discrimination against blacks is positively correlated with their relative number, then the greater the number of black baseball players on a team the less frequently fans will attend games. Therefore, if baseball fans have discriminatory preferences one would expect to find, in a cross-sectional study of baseball teams, black baseball players having a significantly negative impact on a baseball team's attendance, when other relevant variables are held constant.

III.

mdel

The list of factors influencing the attendance at baseball games has been well established in numerous studies.3 They Include economic variables (price, availability of substitute forms of entertainment, and income); demographic variables (population size and ethnic preferences) and quality variables (degree of competition, league play and stadiun). The basic

estimating

equation

is

ATT = a0 + aIP

+ a8SU8 + aSINC

+ adPOP +

a5PARK70

+ a5NL + a7STD80

+ a8BLACK (1)

SPRING/SUMMER

The dependent variable ATT is the official paid attendance for each of the major league baseball teams in the 1980 season. 4 The variable P is each team's average ticket price per seat, which is equal to the prices of individual seat locations weighted by the fraction of seats at that price;5 SUB is the number of other professional baseball, football and basketball teams that play in each team's local market area; INC is the 1980 per capita income in each team's relevant standard metropolitan statistical area; POP is the 1980 population (in thousands) in each team's relevant SAA; PARK70 is a binary variable equal to one if the team plays in a stadium that was constructed since 1970 and zero otherwise; the variable NL is a duasny variable equal to one if the team is in the National League to test the widespread contention that National League teams have a higher quality of performance and fan loyalty and consequently a higher overall attendance after controlling for everything else; and STD80 is each team's 1980 divisional standing in (first place = 1, second place = 2, etc.). Finally, the variable of interest in this study BLACK is the percentage of black players.6

IV.

lhpirical

Results

If baseball fans discriminate against black players, fans receive less satisfaction from viewing blacks play. Therefore, regardless of who is pitching, if fans are prejudiced they will consider the race of players they must watch during the entire game in their decision on whether to attend a game. It follows that the greater the percentage of black nonPitcher regulars that a baseball team has the less likely fans will attend.7

1986

Accordingly, the variable BLACK in equation 1 was set equal to the percentage of regulars at the nonpitcher positions who are black (BR).8 Equation 1 was estimated using multiple linear regression and the empirical results appear below (absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses, indicate coefficient significant at .Ol level, * at .025 level, l at .05 level):g

ATT = 4,589.240 (3,36)-

- 29883

P - 398762

(. 13)

(2.28)”

208.373 INC + 303.209 (1.82)*

SUB -

POP +

(2.41)*

312791 PARK70 - 67491 NL(1.13) t.251 165067 STD80 - 10287.1 (2.35)-

(1.13)

BR, R2=.66

(2)

Consistent with many other studies on baseball attendance, major sports substitutes, income, and team standings have a significantly negative effect on attendance, while the influence of population size is significantly positive. The estimated coefficients show that an increase of an additional major sports substitute reduces attendance by nearly 399,000 fans; an increase in per capita income of $1,000 reduces attendance by approximately 208,000 fans; each additional place in the standings behind the league leader reduces attendance by approximately 165,000 fans and each additional l,OOO,OOO increase in population increases attendance by about 303,000 fans. Contrary to what many people have specu-

152

VOLUMENo.ldc2

lated, there was no statistically sfgnfficant difference in attendance between National and American League teams in 1980. Furthermore, a relatively new park is found not to statistically sfgnfffcantly enhance attendance. This result is consistent with Nell's [lg74] finding that the novelty of a new stadium wears off steadily. The estimated coefficient of average ticket price is negative but not statistically significantly different from zero'. This finding does not mean that a higher price for seats of a particular quality will not.reduce attendance. Rather it presumably reflects the fact that larger parks have a greater proportion of seats of inferior vfsfbflfty than smaller parks and consequently the average ticket price per seat in larger parks is lower than in smaller parks, and this difference in average ticket price per seat does not effect total attendance. Finally. the variable of interest in the study 8R is negative, but not statfstfcally significantly dffferent from zero. In other words, the empirical results show that fans are indifferent wfth respect to the race of nonpitcher regulars on a team. Thus one cannot conclude that fans discriminate on the basis of the race of starting nonpitcher regulars. In order to test whether baseball fans are prejudiced against black pitchers and stay homa when a black pitches in a game, the variable BP was introduced in equation 1. The variable BP represents the percentage of regular pitchers on a team who are black.lO If such

fans discriminate behavior should

against blacks, manifest itself not

JBE

only for black starting pitchers, but on the possibility of viewing a black pitch anytime during the game. Thus the greater the percentage of black regular pftchers on a team, the greater the lfkelfhood a discriminatory fan will see a black pitch sometime during a game and the more likely discriminatory fans will not attend. The empirical results able BP is introduced appears below (absolute tistics in parentheses): ATT = 3,807.690

when the varfinto equation 1 value of t-sta-

+ 82268.6

(3.18)"

P - 467904

SUB

(2.82)-

(.4I)

- 223.939 INC + 371.034 POP + (1.93)*

(3.28)-

244797 t.89)

PARK70 - 211503 ML t.911

142866

STD80 - 5544.1

(2.1O)t*

1.69)

BP, R2 = .64 (3)

Both the values of the estimated coefficients and their levels of statistical significance are virtually identical to the estimates presented in equation 2. More importantly. the variable BP is negative but not statistically sfgnfffcantly different from zero. This result suggests that fans do not discriminate; they make a decision to attend a baseball game independent of race of a pitcher. it might be argued that the basic assumption in this paper (that if white baseball fans discriminate against black players, total attendance should sfgnfff-

SPRING/SUMMER1986 cantly decrease) is fallacious. It is possible that the presence of black players decreases white attendance but increases black attendance and the net effect is little change in total attendance. To test for this possibility would require a racial breakdown of total attendance which is not available. However, an indirect approach can be used. If white racism exists, then the presence of black fans should reinforce the discriminatory attitudes of white fans, and these discriminatory whites will attend games less frequently. In other words, for each black fan who attends a game, more than one discriminatory white fan who would otherwise have attended will stay home. Total attendance, therefore, should be sensitive to the racial distribution of baseball fans. In order to test the effect of black fans the variable BLACK in equation 1 was set equal to the percentage of blacks residing in each team's standard metropolitan statistical area (PCTBLCPOP). One would expect that the greater the percentage of blacks living in a team's market the greater the proportion of fans attending games who are black.ll The empirical results appear below (absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses):

ATT = 3,804,670 (3.16)230.848

(1.98)* 206929 (.73)

+ 109737 P - 454598 (2.66)**

(-53) INC + 371.663

POP +

(3.27)*** PARK70 - 207821

(.@3)

NL-

SUB i

146615

STO80-10513.8

(2.10)**

(.57)

PCTBLCKPOP, R2 = .64 (4)

Again, the estimated coefficients and their levels of statistical significance are virtually identical to the estimates presented in equation 2 and 3. The percentage of blacks in a team's SMSA is negative, but not statistically significantly different from zero. This result confirms the finding by No11 [1974] that total attendance is not sensitive to the racial distribution of baseball fans. In other words, whites are not more likely to stay away from baseball games the greater the turnout by blacks. Thus the previous findings that fans do not discriminate against black players remains robust.

V. Conclusion Nearly twenty years ago Blalock Cl9671 presented several theoretical propositions concerning the degree of discrimination against blacks. Two of Blalock's propositions were: (1) To the extent that perfonaance level is relatively independent of skill in interpersonal relations, the lower the degree of discrimination and (2) the lower the degree of purely social interaction on the job, the lower the degree of discrimination. Blalock's propositions imply that individuals discriminate little against those with whom they have only limited or indirect contact. Applying Blalock's propositions to during a game fans are inbaseball, volved with baseball players at a secondary level. Their contact with the players is of very short duration, has little interpersonal intensity, and the level is superficial.

VOLUMENo.1&2

154

This study examined whether racial discrimination exists among baseball fans. Empirical results confinn Blalock's two theoretical propositions. Baseball fans were found to be indifferent to the race of pitchers or regulars when making the decision to attend a game. Furthermore, white fans were not found to attend games less frequently the greater the turnout by blacks. Blalock concluded that professional baseball is an occupation which is remarkably free of racial discrimination. The results of this study provide support for Blalock's assertion with respect to the behavior of baseball fans.

%ofessor Marshall H. Hedoff is from the Department of Economics at California State University in Long Beach, California. 2A complete description of multicollinearity, its effects and solutions are available in Halinvaud 119701. various has

5The original this variable

idea for the calculation is from No11 [1974].

6The term black used in this study refers to North American blacks as well as Caribbean, South American and Central American blacks.

7the Encyclopedia [1982] Baseball designates regulars for each team at each position. The two prime considerations for being a regular are (i) most games played at a position and (ii) most fielding chances at a position.

8For American League teams the variable BR was based on the eight nonpitcher positions plus the designated hitter.

NOTES

3A review of the influence attendance Schofield [1983].

of

JBE

factors that been done by

4The data used in this study covers the 24 major league teams located in the United States. Toronto and Montreal were excluded because of the lack of comparable data. The baseball infonaation is from the Baseball Blue Book [19Bll, American League Red Book [19BO], National League Green Book [1980] and the Baseball Encyclopedia 119821. All the other data is from the 1980 Census of Population 119831.

gFor a one-tailed t-test a 2.6 t-statistic indicates a 99 percent likelihood that the true sign of the coefficient is the same as the estimated sign; a 1.75 t-statistic indicates a 95 percent confidence level. For a two-tailed t-test the 95 percent confidence value of the t-statistic is 2.1.

%he Baseball Encyclopedia Cl9821 classifies a pitcher as a regular if he pitched 100 or more innings, or had ten decisions (a win, loss, or save). llThfs assumes that blacks are as interested in baseball as whites. If blacks are less interested in baseball then the argument that the decreases in white attendance is exactly offset by increases in black attendance can be rejected s priori.

JBE

SPRING/SUMMER

REFERENCES

1986

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H.M. Toward a Theory of Minority Group Relations, New York: John Wiley, 1967.

J. Madura and R.A. Zuber. J.R., "The Short Run Demand for Major Atlantic Economic League Baseball," Journal, 1982, pp. 31-35.

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Setting," Business, tution, 1974.

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"Attendance and Government and the Washington: Brookings

9. Noll,

1981.

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Statistical New York:

Red Book, 1980. 8. National

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Bureau of the Census. U.S. Census of Population, 1980, State Reports, Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1983.