Behavioral science and energy conservation: Conceptualizations, strategies, outcomes, energy policy applications

Journal of Economic North-Holland

Psychology

203

3 (1983) 203-229

BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE AND ENERGY CONCEPTUALIZATIONS, STRATEGIES, ENERGY POLICY APPLICATIONS * Richard

CONSERVATION: OUTCOMES,

A. WINETT

Virginia Polyfechnic

Institute

and Srate University,

USA

Peter ESTER Free University, Amsterdam, Received

September

The Netherlandr

26, 1982; accepted

April 22, 1983

While economic, physical design, and legal disciplines have been the dominant approaches in energy conservation policies, each perspective has limitations with regard to effectively being able to modify energy-related behaviors of consumers. A behavioral science approach which integrates knowledge bases from a number of disciplines and levels of analysis has had relatively little input into energy policy, even though conceptually and technically the approach is well developed, and has recently demonstrated its applicability to energy policy through many field experiments. These studies, which have used combinations of antecedent and consequence strategies, are critically reviewed with regard to energy savings attributable to these strategies and the potential for large-scale applicability. Based on this review, a sophisticated, media-based approach, developed from a detailed marketing plan, is described as the foundation of a basic program. However, such a program would be experimental in nature and contain subparts to carefully evaluate other strategies (e.g., diffusion, feedback). Thus, the behavioral sciences, while by no means offering a panacea, can make important contributions to energy policy when working in concert with other disciplines.

Overview The purpose of this paper is to show the importance and potential benefits of integrating current behavioral science conceptualizations, * This paper was presented as an invited address at the International Conference on Consumer Behavior and Energy Policy, Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands, September, 1982. Research reported by the first author from 1979 to present was supported by research grant NSF-DAR7910256. Reprint requests may be sent to either Richard Winett, Psychology Dept., Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA; or Peter Ester, Insiitute for Environmental Studies, Free University, P.O. Box 7161, 1007 MC Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

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methodologies, and specific strategies into mainstream energy conservation policies and programs. In the first part of this paper, we will briefly note some of the limitations of economic, physical design, and legal approaches to energy conservation, limitations that suggest the need for an alternative, or at least a complimentary, approach that seriously considers behavioral science input. In the second part of the paper, we will delineate the behavioral science approach, by noting particular methodologies, procedures, and study outcomes. Building on this perspective and data-base, we will then describe direct applications to energy conservation policy and programs, and end with a recommended framework and strategies for a large-scale conservation effort.

Limitations

of traditional approaches

Clearly, economics has been a dominant discipline in energy conservation (Samuelson 1980). Pricing strategies have been the major means of controlling demand and consumer responsiveness to price when investigated at an aggregate or individual level is apparent (Winkler and Winett 1982). The limitations of a purely economic approach to energy conservation include these points: (1) For political and economic reasons, energy prices rarely reflect the true replacement costs of energy; e.g., even with deregulation, U.S. prices are artifically low. (2) Often for political reasons, prices are kept regulated, e.g., the inability to completely deregulate natural gas prices in the U.S. (3) Market forces and concomitant behavior often respond to short-term benefits and outcomes, rather than to less immediate and longer-term societal outcomes (Heilbroner and Thurow 1982). In psychology, we have a good analogy to this situation. It is known from countless experiments that immediate reinforcers most often dominate future reinforcers, even if the latter are in many ways more desirable or valuable. (4) A purely marketplace ,approach often has inequities and inefficiencies (Joerges 1979; Winett 1981). Poorer people may unduly suffer, and pricing policies may not promote as much conservation as expected. Data exist concerning the second point. For example, in very recent studies in the U.S., we found that fairly typical middle-class consumers were uninformed and, indeed, misinformed about some specific simple (e.g., thermostat setbacks), but very effective, low-cost/no-cost conservation strategies (Winett et al. 1983d). In addition, there is some evidence for

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adaptation (conservation, followed by a return to prior habits) to rising prices (Geller et al. 1982). These points are not made to dismiss the importance of market forces. Rather, the conclusion is that pricing strategies are a necessary, but not sufficient, approach to energy conservation policy (Darley and Beniger 198 1). Another traditional approach to resource management is physical design. Here the goal is through either initial design or retrofitting to substantially reduce energy use. Excellent examples include manufacturing automobiles that will deliver 60 MPG and the development of affordable passive solar, home retrofits (Anderson and Wells 1981). Here, too, there are limitations including: (1) The time involved in replacing a nation’s automobile fleet, housing stock, and other buildings can be very long. Indeed, under today’s economic circumstances, this time is increasing. (2) A solely physical design approach can mean that many existing problems of the original system will not be curtailed (unless it is replaced by another system). For example, the greater use of fuel efficient cars in the U.S. will help save fuel, but do little to diminish commuting and land use problems, or air pollution. (3) Attention only to physical design ignores the importance of human behavior. For example, it is a well-established fact that consumer life-style is probably the major determinant of energy use in U.S. homes, and a major factor in European homes. Studies have consistently shown that energy use during peak heating and cooling seasons can differ by several-fold in identical U.S. homes occupied by (demographically) similar people (Socolow 1978; Winett and Geller 1981). State of the art retrofitting procedures can reduce energy consumption, but the proportional difference in use apparently remains quite constant (Socolow 1978). In addition, it is important to note that the mere availability of energy conserving technology does not mean that energy will be conserved. Technologies have to be widely adopted to impact on a country’s energy demand, a point which again stresses that attention be directed to behavioral factors (Darley and Beniger 198 1). The importance of human behaviors in energy conservation is wellknown in behavioral science, but this position has hardly made its way into policy. Further, there is some emerging data that suggests a “compensation” effect following retrofitting. That is, it may be the case that SOme consumers after receiving retrofits increase (or at least main-

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tam) consumption (e.g., raise the thermostat), believing that their energy problems were solved by the retrofits (Buttram and Geller 1981). This intriguing and important point needs more research attention. Once again, we have to conclude that a physical design approach is obviously necessary, but alone, is not sufficient. The last traditional approach to energy conservation is the use of laws, regulations, and standards. This approach by itself is extremely important, but again has some limitations. An example of a strength is the use of mandated standards in the U.S. for fuel-efficient cars. These standards, rather than market forces, are seen by some as the major reason for the transition away from gas-guzzlers (Ross and Williams 198 1). Limitations of this approach include: (1) The inability to enforce certain laws. For example, in the U.S. compliance with the 55 MPH speed limit has declined since failure to comply is rarely enforced. (2) Some energy consuming behaviors are difficult, if not impossible, to regulate. For example, there are physical regulations for building standards, but much energy use in the home, as noted, has to do with individual behavior. Personal behavior in the home is difficult and, in most instances, undesirable to regulate and control. (3) The limited empirical backing for some regulations that are put into effect, thus, sometimes making the processes and outcomes associated with the regulations unanticipated. For example, rationing of gasoline has at times resulted in hoarding of the fuel. (4) Rigorous regulation may lead to reactance effects. For example, overregulation, or the perception of such a process, has led in the U.S. to a backlash against apparently (or perceived) unnecessary regulation. That is, at least for the foreseeable future less “government control” seems to be the theme. Thus, again, one traditional approach is not sufficient. Clearly, a combination of economic, design, and legal approaches is needed, but we further argue that a behavioral science approach must be added and integrated into this mix.

The behavioral science approach Under the term “the behavioral science approach”, we are incorporating conceptualizations and strategies from behavioral psychology (Craighead et al. 1981), social learning theory (Bandura 1977), social and ecological psychology (Wicker 1979), organizational (Frederiksen

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1982), environmental (Bell et al. 1978), and community psychology (Rappaport 1977), consumer behavior and economic psychology (Williams 1982), behavioral economics (Kagel and Winkler 1972) and, to some extent, communications (Maccoby and Alexander 1980), diffusion theory (Rogers and Kincaid 1981), marketing (Rosenberg 1977), and sociology (Kunkel 1975). Thus, we are not presenting a monolithic approach, but more of an evolving, integrative “metaparadigm” of human behavior that has incorporated aspects from a number of other paradigms and disciplines (Ester 1979; Winett 1981). Let us examine some important aspects of this paradigm in terms of the contributions from each of the disciplines or approaches we noted. The central role of consequences, reinforcement, in modifying and maintaining behaviors comes from behavioral (“Skinnerian”) psychology (Cone and Hayes 1980). Energy use behaviors can be modified by the systematic arrangement of reinforcers. Reinforcers need not always be material (e.g., money, price changes, rebates) but can also take immaterial forms (e.g., praise and feedback). The criticality of the parameters of latency, duration, and intensity of reinforcers has been examined in countless studies (Wilson and O’Leary 1980); suffice it to say at this point, that the immediacy of reinforcement must be considered in energy conservation programs. Behavioral psychology to a somewhat lesser extent has also been concerned with the role of antecedents in modifying behavior. Antecedents can include instructions, specific prompts, “modeling”, and various setting event strategies (Cone and Hayes 1980). Antecedent strategies are considered to be weaker than consequence strategies; the difference between antecedent and consequence strategies and the relative effectiveness of each strategy will be discussed more fully later. Social learning theory is currently the dominant position in U.S. psychology (Bandura 1977). In many ways, this approach has been a reaction against some of the limitations of behavioral psychology. While concerned with antecedent and consequence conditions, social learning theory focuses on cognitive and affective processes, downplayed, and even sometimes ignored, in behavioral psychology. Thus, a person’s beliefs, attitudes, values, norms, and perceptions are seen as greatly determining behavior; however, the process is seen as reciprocal. Modified behaviors also usually modify beliefs, attitudes, and perceptions, which, in term, can modify other behaviors. From a “ true” social and ecological psychological perspective (Sara-

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son 198 l), we not only gain theory and procedures for changing attitudes and beliefs, but more of a sense of the transactions between environment and behaviors. Here we are concerned with how the form and structure of our organizations, institutions, communities, and customs influence behavior (Catalan0 1979). Clearly, organizational, environmental, and community psychology also provide a knowledge base and intervention strategies. Of particular interest to us are controlled investigations of planned change at this more macro-level and the effects on behavior (Bronfenbrenner 1979), and, in particular, on energy-use behaviors (Hirst 1982). Behavioral economics can be seen as a hybrid of psychology and economics (Kagel and Winkler 1972). There, are important similarities in psychological and economic perspectives, e.g., the role of incentives and reinforcements, and some recent attempts to further integrate these disciplines, e.g., viewing the reinforcement process as choice behavior under constraint (Rachlin et al. 1980). There are also some important differences. For example, as we will show, economic models have often assumed perfectly knowledgeable consumers, or consumers knowledgeable within some boundaries (Simon 1979). Information has been considered an important aspect of consumer behavior, but the form, modality, and frequency of information flows has not often been studied in economics (Winett and Kagel 1982). However, this has been studied in psychology, albeit, not particularly with regard to real-life economic choice behaviors (e.g., Tversky and Kahneman 198 I). Thus, a behavioral economics perspective is concerned with the role of incentives (price) and information flows in modifying energy behaviors. From communications and diffusion theory, and sociology comes not only studies of the role of media (Rice and Paisley 1981), but also more recent interest in the use of focused personal contact, and naturally existing or created social networks in disseminating information and innovations (Darley and Beniger 198 1; Granavetter 1973; Liu and Duff 1972; Rogers and Kincaid 198 1; Rogers and Shoemaker 1971). Recent communications theory adds more of a systemic aspect to conceptualizations of human behavior and intriguing and potentially cost-effective approaches to intervention (Ester and Winett 1982). Marketing generally does not represent unique theory or application. Rather, we see marketing, particularly social marketing, as an overall approach to large-scale behavior change (Rosenberg 1977): Important marketing strategies that need to be incorporated into any program

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include studies of consumer behaviors, needs assessment, market segmentation approaches, selection of communication modalities, and information feedback systems. Consumer behavior is another overarching, interdisciplinary field that integrates work from psychology, communications, economics, marketing, and law (Williams 1982). Indeed, there are some excellent recent examples of projects in consumer research that have incorporated concepts and strategies from different disciplines into field experiments, with the results being highly relevant to energy policy (e.g., Anderson and Claxton 1982). Thus, the paradigm we have been describing is seen as dynamic and evolving, not fixed. The behavioral scientist, thus, has a range of concepts to use separately and in combination to approach problems in energy conservation, with an overall marketing and consumer behavior perspective serving an integrative function. Rather than just being theory, all the concepts we have noted have a firm grounding in empirical research, i.e., they have been shown to be a viable foundation for the development of intervation strategies. While in many instances, empirical support is found in laboratory studies or studies with animals, we will focus here on direct evaluation of these concepts and strategies in field research. Experimental

field evaluation research

An integral component of the behavioral science approach to energy conservation has been the use of field evaluation research. Indeed, most of the studies have followed a true experimental model including random assignment of households, units, etc., and the testing of independent conditions, and the clear delineation of the target, dependent measures (i.e., electricity use, gasoline consumption, etc.). This research approach can be contrasted to other methods which have tended to dominate the field, i.e., survey research, case studies, and econometric modeling. Clearly, the advantage of experimental research is the ability to attribute causality to events or conditions, a difficulty of less controlled and correlational research. Further, when done in the field with representative consumers, it is possible to generalize and have reasonable estimates of the effects of different procedures with the entire population. Thus, from a policy point of view, experimental research has many advantages (Fairweather and Tomatzky 1977).

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Experimental field research methods are not without their problems. They are often difficult and expensive to conduct and require a commitment of time and patience to answer a question. However, some of these problems are alleviated when in the best tradition of experimentation, a systematic replication strategy is followed. In this approach, relatively small-scale studies are done in a logical sequence, i.e., a stream of research, with each study replicating a prior one, and technique development is a product of the sequence, not the mere size of one study. This last part is extremely important. For example, in residential energy conservation research, much was learned from initial, pilot studies with only a few households (Hayes and Cone 1977), because other small-scale studies followed. It is extremely difficult to mount a controlled study with thousands of participants, however, intuitively appealing that approach may be. For example, in the U.S., one field experimental study in the health area has received over $13 million in support (Newhouse et al. 198 1). While the study has many participants and a number of sites, one aspect of this approach limits generality. The study was done at one point in time. Smaller-scale studies done in sequence (i.e., the output for one study being the input for another one) can replicate procedures across a range of person, environmental and temporal conditions, as well as continuing to modify the interventions based on data feedback. In sum, a behavioral science approach will integrate conceptualization and empirical findings from a number of perspectives. This perspective will be generally used to construct programs and policies which will be first field tested in experimental field studies.

Basic procedures In this section, we will describe particular procedures that are derived from the paradigm we have outlined. We will describe each procedure in relative isolation, yet later, the use of procedures in combination will be recommended. Regardless of the perspective from which a procedure has been derived, we can classify procedures as antecedent or consequence strategies. Antecedent procedures are generally stimuli, events, or conditions that precede a targeted behavior with the objective of modifying that

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behavior in the desired direction. Elsewhere (Ester and Winett 1982), we have discussed in detail that antecedent strategies are not as well-developed as consequence strategies. We partly explained this state of affairs as based on the preconceived belief that these strategies are only marginally effective. Therefore, often minimal effort seemed to be placed on their development. It is our contention that antecedent strategies can be made to be more effective. A primary antecedent strategy involves simple information given in the form of booklets, brochures, and the like. A common conclusion when this type of strategy has been evaluated is that it does not modify behavior when used alone (Ester 1979; Geller et al. 1982). This does not imply that the targeted audience knew the information prior to the information, or has attended to the information, much less learned the information. The best conclusion from studies using booklets and brochures is that this type of modality rarely influences behavior, though it obviously is one of the most popular strategies used in energy conservation programs. Other modalities seem more effective. Information about appropriate behaviors can also be delivered by use of different modeling formats (Bandura 1977). By modeling, we mean the demonstration and explanation of targeted behaviors, practices, and rules. A prime way to use modeling is by in oivo interventions. Here, in addition to demonstrations, a model can instruct and guide behavior change (i.e., “participation modeling”). This is an extremely effective strategy. For example, imagine a home energy auditor who instructs, demonstrates, and guides residential consumers in simple low-cost, no-cost retrofits and behavior changes. The disadvantage of in viva modeling is the cost in combination with its more limited scope of applicability. Therefore, symbolic modeling, using videotape programs and the like seems to be a more cost-effective direction. While the relative magnitude of effect from symbolic modeling is clearly less than participant modeling (Bandura 1977), the potential involved in reaching vast audiences with television makes this a strategy in need of further work. Except in smaller experiments (Winett et al. 1983a), or in large but relatively diffuse campaigns (Rice and Paisley 1981), the television media has apparently been infrequently used to promote energy conservation. That is, the full tools of social marketing have not been a part of public policy. We can foresee a range of studies that take advantage of new dimensions in T.V. (Wolf and Latane 1981). For

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example, the rapid development of cable systems will allow for “narrow casting”, developing programs for very specific market segments. Interactive modalities in cable systems can also allow an element of immediate feedback to producer and viewer that can probably make this approach more effective. Despite these future capabilities, we are very aware that in the behavioral sciences there is a strong belief that media alone will not change behavior (Wallack 1981). The media sets an agenda, informs, may change attitudes, but will have limited effects on behavior. This prevailing belief is interestingly in contrast to the concerns and data that, indeed, do show the influence of’ T.V. media on behavior. The documented effects of TV. violence in promoting aggressive behavior in children and the real concern about advertisement of junk food clearly suggest that T.V. media does influence behauior, but under certain conditions (Lau et al. 1980; Rushton 1979). Clearly, there are some major differences in the various, unsuccessful health and safety media campaigns, public announcements, and the “successful” portrayal and transmission of aggressive behavior and poor eating habits (Wallack 1981). Communication parameters of T.V. media that need to be considered in terms of behavior influence include dose (i.e., number and intensity of exposure), duration, specificity of content, and context (Lau et al. 1980). For example, public service announcements given at 11 P.M. or 6 A.M. assure a minimal dose level. By duration, we mean length of a campaign, with a longer campaign potentially increasing dosage and possibility helping to maintain new behaviors. By specificity of content, we mean the degree to which specific behaviors or practices are demonstrated and advocated. For example, the depiction of preferred thermostat settings and setbacks appear to have much more influence on viewer’s behavior than a general discussion of the need to conserve energy (Winett et al. 1982~). in which particular practices are By context, we mean the “ground” depicted. For example, a colorful “ upbeat” 30-second spot probably will hold an audience’s attention much better than a gloomy 60-second public service announcement. Specific aspects of modeling, investigated in behavioral research (Bandura 1977), also must be considered. For example, the probability of actual performance by viewers of behaviors modeled on T.V. is increased if the specified model’s behavior is reinforced. Other important factors include model and viewer similarity, the gradual display

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of competence and mastery by the model, the presentation of the targeted behaviors in a number of situations, and offering the viewer a plan to approach the tasks or problems at hand. Thus, there are important points from communications and social learning theory that must be integrated when developing media where the goal is behavior change. At this point, the magnitude of effectiveness of some of the different parameters we identified is largely conjecture. Note, however, that in instances where antisocial and nonhealthy behaviors have been learned from the media, dosage and duration are extremely high; the practices are diverse, yet specific (e.g., a particular aggressive action; eating a certain sugary cereal); models are reinforced and can easily be identified with, and the context is usually not only interesting, but captivating (Lau et al. 1980). Thus, the production quality of media that has influenced behavior is probably high, while many behavioral science media efforts were probably of poor production quality (Maccoby and Alexander 1980), and not attendant to certain parameters. We have taken a considerable amount of time to discuss modeling because we feel that technological change in the next few years will make the T.V. media (e.g., on a community level) a potentially very cost-effective vehicle for positive behavior influence. We, therefore, recommend that considerable experimentation be done with this modality and other complimentary antecedent strategies. In this respect, cross cultural research could generate important findings. The use of prompts is another important antecedent strategy. While prompts can take many forms (Geller et al. 1982), most basically, we mean by prompts any cue, sign, or message, that precedes a behavior and is designed to modify that behavior in the desired direction. Frequently, prompts are used that research has shown to be almost completely ineffective. For example, the written, general prompt on soft drink bottles in the U.S., “Dispose of Properly” is the type of prompt that research suggests does not modify behavior, Geller et al. have identified parameters that are related to more effective prompting interventions: (1) Specificity - The specific desired behavior should be clearly indicated. (2) Proximity - The prompt needs to be delivered in close proximity to when the opportunity exists to perform the behavior.

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(3) Convenience - The desired behavior must be convenient and not in opposition to strong, counterdemanding contingencies. (4) Nondemanding - Prompts apparently are more effective when the language used is polite and nondemanding. (5) Obtrusive - While not being impolite or demanding, the prompt needs to be differentiatable enough from the environment that it is easily perceived. Note again, that often public service or health-related prompts do not match all, or most, of these important parameters. For purposes of an example, let us imagine a lo-second T.V. announcement at 11 P.M. that depicts a lovely rural scene and then with a voice over says, “To preserve our environment, we must conserve energy”. This prompt lacks specificity, and it is unclear what behavior is called for; also, the language is demanding and the scene may not be obstrusive. A more ideally designed prompt taking the parameters and prior discussion of modeling into account, may also be shown at 11 P.M., but depict a thermostat, and say, “Now that you’re almost ready to go to bed, please turn your thermostat back to 55”. You’ll save about 15% on your bill by doing this setback regularly”. Of course, a person would be shown setting the thermostat back. Note that this prompt fits all the criteria for effectiveness noted previously; incidentally, this prompt would also be only 10 seconds long. We will now conclude our discussion of antecedent strategies by briefly describing a number of other procedures that are usually considered parts of other consequence strategies or are complex strategies. Goal setting, commitment, and creating cohesion are important procedures to be included in conservation programs. The behavioral and social psychological literature indicates that behavior change programs are more successful when participants choose or are given hard, but reachable goals (e.g., reduce home energy use by 20%; Becker 1978), and when participants make a commitment, preferably public, to adhere to a program or set of procedures (e.g., sign a statement indicating willingness to follow a plan; Winett et al. 1982a). In the absence of goals and commitments, programs have been found in some instances to be ineffective (Becker 1978). “Cohesiveness” can entail the development of involvement and support between participants in a program. Although social psychological literature emphasizes the importance of cohesion (Goldstein et al. 1966), few energy conservation

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studies have exploited this variable (Warren and Clifford 1975) and one attempt to build some limited support between participants in a residential energy conservation study, did not substantially increase effectiveness (Winett et al. 1982b). The use or development of social networks follows from the notion of cohesion, with networks representing more established and longer lasting communication and interaction patterns. Various diffusion of information and innovation models have posited a critical role for social networks (Darley and Beneger 1981; Granovetter 1973; Rogers and Kincaid 198 1; Rogers and Shoemaker 1971), and there is some evidence for the role of networks as a vehicle for change in resource management behaviors (Darley 1978; Warren and Clifford 1975). The most intriguing aspect of the use of social networks is the potential of a multiplier function, a possibility that is especially true for communitybased projects. For example, if one influential member of a social network can be shown how to save a considerable amount of energy in the home with minimal cost and minimal loss of comfort or convenience, there is a good possibility that other network members will be positively influenced. Besides attention to influential network members (Rogers and Kincaid 1981), it is important that innovations clearly show their advantage, are compatible with current norms, are fairly simple, and are triable (Rogers and Shoemaker 1971). Note, however, that the planned use of social networks for energy conservation is relatively untested (Darley and Beniger 1981). In addition, the use of social networks entails a range of antecedent (e.g., demonstrations of a technique) and consequence (e.g., positive verbal feedback from a friend) strategies. Placing “networks” under antecedent strategies is a matter of convenience and not conceptual clarity.

Consequence

strategies

Most of the earlier work on energy conservation investigated the effectiveness of consequence strategies (Winett and Neale 1979). While studies in the residential sector have primarily used rebates and feedback, work in transportation management indicates a range of procedures, e.g., reduced fares, free transit after boarding public transportation, different schedules of reinforcement (see Geller et al. 1982). Ingenuity in the design of consequence strategies entails attention to

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basic reinforcement principles, as well as as a concern for cost-effectiveness and embedding procedures in currently existing systems. Rebate strategies are used extensively to promote the sale of products (e.g., cars) and can be conceptualized within reinforcement and economic paradigms (Winkler and Winett 1982). Residential field studon reduced ies evaluating rebates, i.e., money receivable contingent consumption, have generally shown good responsiveness to rebates (e.g., 15% reductions in demand); however, when evaluated from a cost-effectiveness and economic perspective, the potential of rebates is less certain. It is also conceivable that rebates can have unintentional, negative effects. For example, rebates for home energy conservation may be added to the family budget and used for more driving. Rebates can be seen as price changes, and the rebates used in several studies have amounted to price changes that are very large (50%250%). From both a theoretical and practical standpoint (Geller et al. 1982; Winkler and Winett 1982), there has been a call for studies of rebates that represent more realistic price changes. Basically, the money spent on rebates by a utility or the government must yield a predictable savings in use to forstall or eliminate the need for capital expenditures, such as spending for increasing generating capacity. This is true for strategies to reduce overall demand or to change patterns of consumption through time-of-day pricing mechanisms. Within this context, it may be difficult to operate. Rebates may be too minimal to induce responsiveness and increased capital expenditures may be needed later (Winkler and Winett 1982). In addition, other antecedent and consequence procedures that are independently effective may be needed to make rebate strategies more optimal. Finally, data suggest some adaptation response over time to price changes (Geller et al. 1982). Clearly, consumers are responsive at least in the shortrun to price changes and behavioral science strategies generally need a supportive economic context to be effective (Winkler and Winett 1982). This discussion, however, suggests that rebates and other pricing strategies cannot be the only basis for energy conservation policy. Feedback, another consequence strategy, has been extensively studied. Feedback can also be conceptualized as an example of an “information where the consumer is receiving specific and frequent technology”, goal-relevant information. Many studies have shown that frequent (at least several times per week) feedback on energy consumption can reduce use by about 15% and up to 30% during seasonal peak-use

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periods (Seligman and Darley 1977; Winett et al. 1979). Specific information on energy use (e.g. kWh) for a limited period (one or two days), an indication of an increase or decrease from a prior period (using also weather-correction procedures), and the relationship of that use to a reduction goal, have been provided by written feedback. It has also been suggested that this kind of feedback is effective because it almost all consumers are unaware of their also fills a “knowledge-gap”; immediate and relative energy consumption, at least in the residential sector (Geller et al. 1982). Further, most billing procedures militate against effective feedback, i.e., unclear use figures, no comparison and weather-corrected use figures, too long a delay, and too infrequent delivery. Unless taken over by local or consumer groups, the provision of frequent, written feedback is, however, largely not practical. This is especially true in situations, like in the Netherlands, where most houses have interior energy meters. The feedback studies have been important in showing the elasticity of consumer demand, in studying some basic feedback parameters (Becker 1978) and issues in energy use (e.g., comfort; Winett et al. 1982c), but the practicality problem has only been approached in several ways. Studies have attempted to assess the effectiveness of feedback given much less frequently (DeBoer and Ester 1982; Cone and Hayes 1980); through self-monitoring by consumers (Winett et al. 1979), and by mechanical feedback devices (McClelland and Cook 1980). The most general conclusion from these efforts is that these types of feedback may be much less effective than the original approach using frequent, written feedback. The potential seems to exist, however, to make these new procedures more effective. For example, consumers can be trained to be better energy data monitors; feedback devices can incorporate important feedback parameters (such as goals) in their hardware and software, and perhaps, also be directly connected to thermostat and other high energy use applicances (Geller et al. 1982). Feedback may also be given through the media to individuals and even to whole communities with some apparent effectiveness (Rothstein 1980). While it seems apparent that feedback can become less expensive and more effective, two points seem clear: (1) if antecedent strategies can yield less, but more broader-based (mass aggregate) savings, then antecedent strategies seem the ones to pursue given cost-effectiveness considerations; (2) more minimal feedback strategies may be combined

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with antecedent strategies to yield more optimal outcomes. These points will be discussed later in more detail. However, the discussion of feedback as a special informational strategy leads us to summarize our points here within the notion of an “informational technology”. Appropriate use of the media (e.g., modeling), prompts and feedback represent the rudiments of a basic information technology, a combination of principles from psychology, communications theory, and marketing (Ester and Winett 1982). Unlike the relatively nonspecific distribution of information in brochures, booklets, and the like which seems ineffective in terms of behavior influence, this emerging information technology has informational and behavior change aspects. As we have emphasized, however, the technology is relatively specific in terms of the terms of the attention that must be addressed to media (dose, duration, modality, modeling, etc.) and psychological parameters (model reinforced, goals, frequency etc.). Given the proliferation of cable systems, interactive modalities, and other computer-based feedback systems, work in this area has only touched the proverbial “tip of the iceberg”.

Developing policies and programs with behavioral science input: guidelines and strategies In this section, we will take much of the work and perspectives we have emphasized in earlier sections, and note some guidelines and strategies for large-scale energy conservation programs. Before proceeding, we must issue some notes of caution. Major aspects of our recommended approach have not been previously tried on a very large-scale (e.g., T.V. media). One exception is a large media-based U.S. effort on promoting low-cost, no-cost strategies that seemed promising, although lacking an acceptable evaluation methodology (see Geller et al. 1982). However, small-scale research has shown the effectiveness of a number of strategies and the next logical step is a sophisticated large-scale effort, e.g., community programs. Other components such as those based on social diffusion are extremely intriguing, but have received very limited experimentation. Given this point of development, we suggest an evaluation strategy where the entire set of programmatic strategies can be compared to comparison communities or regions, but also where particular, relatively untried approaches can receive more intensive study. In

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the latter case, this means more focused investigation of a smaller number of participants or units using multiple, repeated measures. Examples of this approach in other fields are available in the literature (Maccoby and Alexander 1980). By way of illustration, we will use a program targeted to the residential sector. However, the approach and strategies should be sufficiently flexible so that they can be adapted to other sectors (Winett and Geller 1982). It should be quite clear, however, that the approach we are advocating is far from a panacea and its success very much is related to contextual factors. Policies, programs, procedures, and human behavior do not operate in a vacuum. For example, attempting to mount a large energy conservation program now in the U.S. would mean rowing against the political, economic, and social-psychological tide. The effort seems doomed to failure. However, important strides can be made when the context is relatively “neutral”. Here a program is likely to have modest success, but perhaps signal the viability of a particular policy or approach. For example, acceptance of, and savings, accrued, from van-pooling programs even in the face of stable gasoline prices, may convince industries to go ahead with such programs and government to pass tax incentive mechanisms to enhance and expedite the process (see Geller et al. 1982: ch. 1, for a detailed discussion of this point). The initial mounting of a large-scale program revolves some important social marketing procedures. We suggest these preliminary steps as a minimum (for more detail, see Rice and Paisley 1981): (1) A delineation of the most significant energy consuming practices. For example, in U.S. homes, almost 80% of energy use involves only three functions - space heating, space cooling, and heating of hot water. In the Netherlands, 70% of energy consumption is used for space heating. Other functions are secondary, at least from a policy and practical point of view. The failure to assess critical functions can lead to misdirected programs. (2) Assessment of technical contexts. A careful analysis should be made of the technical energy context in which consumers are living (e.g., type of heating installation, degree of insulation). This also is seen as a crucial step. For example, it would make little sense to emphasize consumer modification of thermostat settings, if most residential units allow very limited control of heating and cooling by consumers. This

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type of assessment can be referred to as a “technical diagnosis”. (3) An assessment of attitudes, beliefs, information, values, and current behaviors concerning the practices in different population segments. Using our focus, simple telephone and written surveys and some more intensive interviews should be able to assess cognitive, affective, and behavioral dimensions of the practices. For example, in recent studies, it was found that entirely incorrect information existed in the target population concerning information on conservation strategies; not surprisingly then, some incorrect behaviors were frequently enacted. Further, some incorrect beliefs concerning the apparent end of the energy problem; incorrect beliefs and feelings toward temperature levels that were adequate for human comfort, and incorrect information on the cost of conservation were found (Winett et al. 1982b, 1983a). Some beliefs, attitudes, cognitions, etc. may predominate in certain population segme-nts or be held across the population. In any case, an effective attitude and behavior change strategy must start from where the target populations are situated. (4) Analyses are needed by population segments. Continuing the theme of detailed assessments includes the use of market segmentation strategies. Here, we are finding out the beliefs, attitudes, values, and behaviors of particular segments of the population, or what can be referred to as “ social diagnosis”. Clearly, in a media-based effort, we are also very interested in ascertaining facts on viewing habits, media attended to, etc. This information has been obtained before by most advertising firms. Mismatches between market segments and messages, information, and products usually lead to failure. (5) Pretesting material. While the prior points emphasize an understanding of the target audience, and the designing of interventions to fit that audience, media and other programs need to be pretested in formative research. Showing of materials and a program to sample audiences similar to the target audience, and some focused small group sessions, can provide valuable feedback so that programs and materials can be appropriately modified (Rosenberg 1977). Here again, there seems to be a major discrepancy between behavioral science efforts and for example, the efforts of network T.V. in the U.S. Behavioral science programs and materials simply did not usually go through a careful pretesting period. However, extensive pretesting at production and prior to release of materials is extremely important to assure quality and appropriate audience response.

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(6) Analyses of higher level influences limiting change. A behavioral approach emphasizing the focus on target behaviors is important, but not without its limitations (Winkler and Winett 1982). Often psychological approaches do not examine higher-order constraints on behavior change, however apparent those constraints may be (Sarason 1981). To take a simple case in point, it makes little sense to emphasize in a campaign the wide-range of temperatures in which comfort is assured and the need for thermostat changes in settings (e.g., U.S. office buildings) with central heating and cooling, no individual thermostat, and windows that will not open. It also does not make sense to try to promote use of public transportation or bicycles where parking for automobiles is free and abundant (Geller et al. 1982). We have already noted the limitations imposed by prevailing political, economic, and social beliefs and positions, but some higher-order constraints may be more subtle and less obvious than the pervasive or very proximal examples we have given. Several examples are provided by work in transportation management (Geller et al. 1982). Many transportation route maps world-wide have been found to be incomprehensible to even college-educated people. Newcomers induced to try public transportation by various approaches may be reduced to confusion on their first and critical entries into a system. In the U.S., use of public transportation is still associated with lower-class status, thus, undermining transportation management programs. Efforts to change this image by use of luxury buses for the wealthy which would then be emulated by others, has been recommended. This approach has some basis in the diffusion theory literature (Rogers and Shoemaker 197 l), although equity and political considerations suggest it will not be tried as a means to promote public transportation. Contemporary U.S. cities have evolved (notice we did not say planned) in such a way as to generally militate against public transportation (Catalan0 1979). Distant suburbs, home to many who work in the cities, mean long commute times and make certain transportation modalities (bicycles, mopeds) unacceptable (Winett et al. 1982b). Thus, effective approaches must analyze the system or context in which target behaviors occur. Based on these analyses, changes in the system itself may be recommended (e.g., better transportation maps, incentives for some businesses to locate in the suburbs) or appropriate intersections between system constraints and target behaviors recog-

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nized or developed (e.g., large free parking lots in suburban areas right next to public transportation). (7) Substitution strategies. A major emphasis in behavior modification is the decreasing of an inappropriate behavior and increasing of an appropriate one (Kazdin 1975). An application of this principle to energy conservation involves substituting low energy use appliances and practices for high use ones while more or less maintaining the intended function. For example, many U.S. consumers are unaware that their major goal should be the “purchase of comfort” and not the use of certain appliances or the expenditure of a certain amount of money. Residential consumers often spend a lot of money in the U.S. for space cooling, a practice which for at least many parts of the country is not even necessary (Rothchild 1981; Winett et al. 1982~). Summer comfort does not necessarily mean the use of central air conditioning or large window units. In a recent summer project, it was possible to reduce electricity used for cooling by as much as 45% but with no loss in comfort. This was done by persuading consumers to follow the simple substitution strategies of closing down their homes in the morning (e.g., close all windows, shades, etc.), only using the central air conditioning set at 78” when home and 80” or more when gone (and only on very hot days), and making extensive use of very inexpensive window fans ($20). Following these strategies, consumers not only showed dramatic savings, but further, highly accurate devices (hygrothermographs) indicated that temperatures in the homes prior to the use of strategies (77”F), and during their use (78”), did not differ (Winett et al. 1982~). The summer results have been replicated (Winett et al. 1982a), and a similar approach (use of small space heaters with central thermostat turned to 55°F; use of passive solar, etc.) was successful in the winter (Winett et al. 1983b). Thus, analysis of alternative low energy use practices that can substitute for high energy use ones is essential. However, we must add one word of caution. At least in the U.S., low energy use appliances and behaviors tend to be devalued. Because of this situation, they must be marketed in ways to overcome this initial value, then become seen as desirable and “ trendy”. The successful marketing of overhead fans, a good comfort preserver and energy saver, fits this marketing strategy. (Rohles 1981). (8) Reciprocal reinforcement. Programs which have the best chance of

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survival are those where multiple and concerned parties are rewarded for their efforts. Early on in his career in transportation management, Everett developed a reciprocal reinforcement system that is now being used in a number of U.S. cities (detailed in Geller et al. 1982). In these systems, riders of public transportation receive passes on boarding vehicles that provide for a subsequent free ride, discounts on goods in various stores, and other incentive conditions. The cost of these programs is not a burden of the public sector, but is paid for by the private sector. Supplying free passes and discount tickets on merchandise is good advertising and helps increase volume in stores and other establishments. More frequent use by customers of public transportation also reduces the problem of limited available parking in the center of cities (but, only if the riders formerly used cars), a barrier that needs to be crossed to increase customer volume. Thus, this system can be self-sustaining in that consumers through free passes and discounts and possibly lower taxes; the private sector through free advertising and more customers, and the public sector by some removal from transportation management, all benefit at the same time. Other reciprocal reinforcement systems can be developed for other energy problems. For example, in the U.S., some utilities have not advocated conservation because of realistic fears of dwindling revenue from decreased demand and the inability to raise prices. Allowing utilities within some reasonable regulations to go into the conservation business under some conditions (minimal capital available for increasing generating capacity) can be beneficial to utilities and consumers (Stobaugh and Yergin 1979). (9) Equity considerations. Presumably energy conservation programs can also have some higher social and economic goals, such as the development of problem solutions that create more equity in the society. For example, programs that emphasize very expensive retrofits will not help the middle-class, let alone the poor, in reducing their expenditures for energy. The best approach given equity considerations is to emphasize a low-cost, no-cost approach (Rothchild 1981; Winett et al. 1982a). These simple strategies focus on the major users of energy and require often no, or only very minimal, expenditures to implement. The strategies are adaptable to almost any residential situation, and are surprisingly effective. It also makes much sense to emphasize the “basics” prior to instituting more expensive and elaborate procedures, procedures that are some times not as effective as first believed I- . . .. . .a_.\

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approach

The prior section noted a number of critical points that must be addressed prior to mounting a large-scale program. They include social marketing techniques as well as some specific strategies, a concern for equity, and a realistic appraisal of contextual constraints. In this section, we will outline basic aspects of a recommended aproach with the assumption that the prior points have been carefully considered and executed. Also consistent with our prior points, we recommend that any large-scale endeavor be viewed as a experimental in nature. This means that there must be a large commitment to evaluation of the entire program and intensive evaluation of relatively new techniques or programs. The entire enterprise should be considered as an opportunity for close collaboration between the behavioral sciences, government, and the private sector, although our recommendations clearly entail public sector leadership. The close collaboration can help set precedents for other endeavors in other problem areas (e.g., health promotion; Maccoby and Alexander 1980), and be a prime vehicle for meshing basic and applied research with policy and program development. Because of the potential cost-effectiveness question entailed in reaching millions of people, and given the relative specificity of a number of conservation practices, we recommend that the T.V. media be a major foundation of the program. The T.V. media would be supplemented by other media that can repeat and expand upon points made on T.V. We would recommend prime-time T.V. shows that demonstrate the simple, targeted energy saving procedures. Production quality should be high and interesting and show people making (“modeling”) actual changes in their homes with, of course, highly positive outcomes. The shows should be “regionalized” to reflect local customs, dialect, housing, and energy systems. We also recommend that T.V. “spots” be used after the programs and for an extended period to continue to demonstrate specific procedures. Where appropriate, these spots should appear on T.V (and radio) at times proximal to the required behavior (e.g., night set-backs shown later in the evening), thus serving as prompts. The effectiveness of this basic approach can probably be enhanced by the addition of more interactive media elements. For example, a number of shows can have time for viewer audience call-ins. Over time, typical consumers who have successfully implemented strategies can be shown in program segments. Notice that such an approach has elements

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of information, prompting, modeling, and diffusion. In addition, cadres of specially trained energy technicians can make home visits after the T.V. shows to further explain, demonstrate and reinforce efforts. And, finally, as discussed later, large scale feedback may be added to this effort. As a necessary disclaimer, let us again note that this approach is experimental. The U.S. studies have shown the effectiveness of one, short T.V. program viewed in groups, in homes but with special viewing equipment, and over a home cable system (Winett et al. 1982c, 1983a, 1983b). But, to the best of our knowledge, media programs on the scale we are suggesting have not been tried in the field of energy conservation. Returning to the question of the specific content of programs, based on marketing surveys such as we have suggested and an analysis of the most cost-beneficial strategies, a key decision will have to be made concerning whether or not complex retrofitting will be depicted and advocated. If so, then the media should direct consumers to potential outlets for retrofit materials and contractors. Some type of incentive should also be offered for consumers procuring retrofits. Incentives can include special discounts on materials and labor with some capital rebated back to companies in the firm of tax deductions, or similar systems that are consumer-based. The principle of reciprocal reinforcement comes into play here. Special loan program for retrofitting also may be set up for consumers, an approach that has been successful in the U.S. when actively promoted and implemented by utilities (Hirst 1982). If the program does not go beyond low-cost, no-cost strategies, then this incentive structure need not be included. From this basic approach, we recommend a number of smaller-scale experiments on particularily promising approaches; one experiment can involve feedback. In this case, self-monitoring can be tried on a large-scale, with the media providing self-monitoring instructions and day-to-day weather correction systems. Entire communities can also be given daily feedback on their overall community use. (A detailed scenario for such an effort is provided in Geller et al. 1982.) Other elements noted, i.e., interactive media and personal contact, should also be evaluated. A second major experiment can follow the guidelines of Darley and Beniger (1981) and investigate an optimal diffusion approach. This would be particularly needed if the program also emphasizes more expensive and/or elaborate retrofits. The basic idea in this approach

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would be to have all the practices and retrofits demonstrated and made in “model homes”. These would be ordinary, not special homes, and be situated in diverse and many neighborhoods. The practices and retrofits would have been demonstrated and performed by technician-level “house doctors”. Friends, relatives, and neighbors would be urged to visit these model homes which would remain occupied by the original residents and where they could interact with the residents and house doctor. This should provide an excellent and persuasive face-to-face experience that can promote extensive changes in the homes of those who visit the model homes. The exact measures and experimental designs are beyond the scope of this paper. A detailed discussion of these points are found in Geller et al. (1982: ch. 2) and other sources (e.g., Fairweather and Tornatzky 1977). At the very least, the experiment should tell us how much energy the interventions saved, and at what cost, and how much the additional procedures saved and at what cost. These basic cost-benefit measures can be supplemented by analyses of strategies followed, consumer reactions to facets of the program, and parts of the program to be modified and repeated. Additionally, the evaluation should not just narrowly focus on behavioral outcomes, but also include attention to community and ecosystem effects (see Wallack 1981). The program developers and private and public funding sources should also see the approach as potentially applicable to other problems (e.g., public health), and keep this as an important reason for undertaking this large-scale and expensive endeavor.

Conclusion We obviously feel that the behavioral sciences have much to offer in terms of conceptualization and strategy development for energy conservation policy. We are, though, aware that however promising this approach may seem, it simply, with few exceptions, has not been tried on a large scale (Hirst 1982). Further, we do not offer a prescription and hardly a panacea, but only a set of principles, guidelines, and procedures that must be adapted to particular circumstances. In addition, just as we discussed- the limitations of solely relying on economic, legal, and regulatory or design approaches to energy conservation, neglecting the power of price, standards and regulations, or

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architectural innovation would be a mistake. A behavioral science approach merely adds to, and does not replace, other traditional approaches to energy conservation. Indeed, there are some existing comprehensive plans that have tried to integrate the different disciplines for community-based efforts, and which have received some trials in areas of resource management (Geller et al. 1982). At this point in time, what seems most exciting to us are the possibilities of field testing at least facets of this overall plan. Hopefully, through these endeavors, cross cultural collaboration will develop between behavioral scientists from different countries and be of mutual benefit in furthering scientific research and promoting energy conservation.

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