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Behaviour in uncertainty and its social implications
J. PsychosomaticRes., 1966, Vol. 9, pp. 403 to 407. PergamonPress Ltd. Printedin Northern Ireland
BOOK REVIEWS
JOHN COHEN: Behaviour in Uncertainty and its Social Implications. George Allen & Unwin, London
(1964). pp. 207.30s. IT IS a truism that life is full of risk and uncertainty, that we have to make decisions every day which have varying probabilities of success or failure. For the most part, we do not know, and cannot know, the objective values of these probabilities, but act at the behest of subjective probabilities which have no firmer foundation than personal beliefs and expectations. In this book, Cohen reports on some experiments performed by him in which the subjects had to declare their preferences for a course of action in situations which offered the same obiective probabilities of success, but had such different psychological appeal that they brought into play individually varying degrees of subjective probabilities. in such situations, it seemed that most people were motivated more by desires to avoid failure than by hopes of achieving success. Objective probabilities were, however, not without influence, even if they could be only crudely evaluated. When objective probabilities of success were very low, as in lotteries, premium bonds, sweepstakes, football pools and many other forms of gambling, they were subjectively inflated by hopeful longings for luck. When objective probabilities of success were very high, as in the chance of safely walking across a main road, they were subjectively turned into near-certainties, although the likelihood of succeeding is no more than 1 in 8000 in Britain. To come to decisions in the face of bewildering uncertainties is a daily occurrence, and yet it is so complex a process that it has defied all attempts at evaluating it in quantitative detail. As a poor second best, Cohen presents to us a simplified model of "subjectively expected utility which seems to decide our decisions. This is how it works in Coben's own words: "The individual, before acting, has somehow to reckon with the range of possible outcomes, to each of which he crudely or otherwise assigns a subjective value of utility. He then presumably has to assign a psychological probability to each of these utilities." Cohen would probably agree with the judgment that the subjectively expected utility of this model of subjectively expected utility is not very high. But this does not detract from the value of the book. Cohen, like the gamblers in whom he is interested, obviously prefers the pleasures of travelling hopefully, though uncertainly, to the satisfaction, certainty and finality of having arrived. As a travel guide through the lands of uncertainty this book can be highly recommended. It is full of information on such diverse topics as gambling with life on the road (with or without the added handicap of alcohol), in sport, attempted suicide and suicide pacts; the inability to gamble which hampers the obsessional neurotic in making a decision; and the many methods of divination invented by men throughout the centuries -in the vain hope of reducing the uncertainties of the future. F. KRAUPL TAYLOR
HARRY A. TEITELBAUM: Psychosomatic Neurology. Grune and Stratton, New York and London (1964). pp. 414. $13.75. THE "newer theoretical neurology" forms the basis from which the author considers personality organization and the problems of psychosomatic disease. Founded in principles of modern theoretical physics, this leads on to a bold but rather forbidding attempt to build a system of psychopathology. For the clinician, however, the value of the book rests not on such complex issues, but on the extraordinarily detailed references to the literature dealing with the psychiatric implications of common neurological syndromes. This is scrupulously reported along with examples from the author's own clinical practice, though the totally uncritical acceptance of some segments of the psychoanalytical literature is surprising. W. A. LISHMAN 403
BOOK REVIEWS
JOHN COHEN: Behaviour in Uncertainty and its Social Implications. George Allen & Unwin, London
(1964). pp. 207.30s. IT IS a truism that life is full of risk and uncertainty, that we have to make decisions every day which have varying probabilities of success or failure. For the most part, we do not know, and cannot know, the objective values of these probabilities, but act at the behest of subjective probabilities which have no firmer foundation than personal beliefs and expectations. In this book, Cohen reports on some experiments performed by him in which the subjects had to declare their preferences for a course of action in situations which offered the same obiective probabilities of success, but had such different psychological appeal that they brought into play individually varying degrees of subjective probabilities. in such situations, it seemed that most people were motivated more by desires to avoid failure than by hopes of achieving success. Objective probabilities were, however, not without influence, even if they could be only crudely evaluated. When objective probabilities of success were very low, as in lotteries, premium bonds, sweepstakes, football pools and many other forms of gambling, they were subjectively inflated by hopeful longings for luck. When objective probabilities of success were very high, as in the chance of safely walking across a main road, they were subjectively turned into near-certainties, although the likelihood of succeeding is no more than 1 in 8000 in Britain. To come to decisions in the face of bewildering uncertainties is a daily occurrence, and yet it is so complex a process that it has defied all attempts at evaluating it in quantitative detail. As a poor second best, Cohen presents to us a simplified model of "subjectively expected utility which seems to decide our decisions. This is how it works in Coben's own words: "The individual, before acting, has somehow to reckon with the range of possible outcomes, to each of which he crudely or otherwise assigns a subjective value of utility. He then presumably has to assign a psychological probability to each of these utilities." Cohen would probably agree with the judgment that the subjectively expected utility of this model of subjectively expected utility is not very high. But this does not detract from the value of the book. Cohen, like the gamblers in whom he is interested, obviously prefers the pleasures of travelling hopefully, though uncertainly, to the satisfaction, certainty and finality of having arrived. As a travel guide through the lands of uncertainty this book can be highly recommended. It is full of information on such diverse topics as gambling with life on the road (with or without the added handicap of alcohol), in sport, attempted suicide and suicide pacts; the inability to gamble which hampers the obsessional neurotic in making a decision; and the many methods of divination invented by men throughout the centuries -in the vain hope of reducing the uncertainties of the future. F. KRAUPL TAYLOR
HARRY A. TEITELBAUM: Psychosomatic Neurology. Grune and Stratton, New York and London (1964). pp. 414. $13.75. THE "newer theoretical neurology" forms the basis from which the author considers personality organization and the problems of psychosomatic disease. Founded in principles of modern theoretical physics, this leads on to a bold but rather forbidding attempt to build a system of psychopathology. For the clinician, however, the value of the book rests not on such complex issues, but on the extraordinarily detailed references to the literature dealing with the psychiatric implications of common neurological syndromes. This is scrupulously reported along with examples from the author's own clinical practice, though the totally uncritical acceptance of some segments of the psychoanalytical literature is surprising. W. A. LISHMAN 403