Beyond economic and value wars: Mythic images of future cities

Futures 43 (2011) 662–672

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Beyond economic and value wars: Mythic images of future cities Cynthia Frewen Wuellner University of Houston, Frewen Architects Inc. PO Box 48-0947, Kansas City, MO 64114-0947, USA

A R T I C L E I N F O

A B S T R A C T

Article history: Available online 24 May 2011

Images of the future are essential to a society’s survival. According to Polak [1], images of the future reflect and foreshadow society’s future; as images go, so goes society. As a visual medium, cities in particular depend on robust images of the future. I submit that our ability to develop useful images of future cities depends on our visual literacy in understanding architectural images. This study explores alternative futures illustrated with future fantasies as an experiment in connecting images, archetypal myths, and alternative futures. Using two variables (strength of the economy and shifts in social values), four scenarios are proposed: Frontier Freedoms, Urban Fortress, Eco-Survival, and Utopian Hopes. Scenarios of future cities depicted by architectural imagery and linked to worldviews and archetypal myths broaden public discourse beyond economics and technology to address qualitative contextual factors such as identity, community, sacredness, and nature. ß 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introducing images of urban futures Cities cannot survive without future images. Before we build, we imagine. Furthermore, according to Fred Polak, societies depend upon robust, forceful images of the future. ‘‘The rise and fall of images of the future precedes or accompanies the rise and fall of cultures’’ [1]. In 1961, he stated the future looked bleak, stripped of both utopian and eschatological images by modern society. For the next forty years, urban development proved him largely correct, as highways, strip commercial centers, and bland suburbs dominated new construction [3]. Yet signs of hope are emerging. During the past two decades, Modernism and its mechanistic metaphors released their strangulating grip while cultural imagination moved into a new age of opportunity and purpose. Now we sit at the edge of a precipice, poised to create cities which will either build communal spirit and ecological balance or create greater suffering and alienation from each other and nature. Cities embody our collective identities and represent powerful ways of knowing ourselves and shaping our futures. Yet in imagining possible urban futures, both experts and citizens lack the tools and processes for useful dialogue beyond economics, technologies, and functional needs, into the realm meaning, beliefs, and quality of life. Through alternative future scenarios and images, we can explore the affect of economic and social values cycles. In the first section, I argue that useful images of future cities employ mythic foundations and resonate with particular social belief systems. Furthermore, based on Polak’s theory of images, a society’s future can be seen in the vitality of these images. Second, I review the methodology of causal layered analysis (CLA), and the role of myths and images in imagining future cities and urban development [4]. Third, I outline six major form givers for cities and architectural images. Using two critical uncertainties as factors (economic strength and social value cycles), four alternative future scenarios are illustrated with architectural fantasy projects and their archetypal roots are traced historically. In this way, myth-based images ground alternative futures in cultural narratives that reflect particular worldviews. My purpose is twofold: (a) to explore connections between values, myths, and imagery; and

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(b) to demonstrate one way to use architectural images to more clearly imagine possible futures scenarios. I concentrate on worldviews, values, myths, and images that represent the two lower levels of CLA while the litany and social systems levels are woven into the factors and narratives. Finally, I consider benefits, limitations, and possible additional directions for exploring future urban scenarios using images and myths. As communication technologies saturate societies with visual media and cities grow in size and complexity, distinctive images play an increasingly significant role in shaping built form and enabling discourse on alternative futures. Images reflect and constitute who we are and our aspirations for the future. Because technological innovations enable virtually any architectural shape and since jobs are increasingly divorced from location, urban viability depends upon a city’s persuasive portrayal of the attractiveness of its identity to potential residents and businesses [5]. Therefore, as global competition ignites, choices and dialogue about future images gain urgency in terms of civic marketing strategies, sustainable development, use of planetary resources, and healthy lifestyles. Understanding and employing a critical analysis of future images broadens dialogue and decision making about urban development beyond economic considerations and transforms the discourse about possible futures. 2. Images, archetypal myths, and future cities 2.1. Why we need images of future cities With over half of the world’s population living in cities for the first time, the twenty-first century could rightfully be called the urban century [6]. Cities hold a significant key to the future in terms of social, economic, and political domains. However due to globalization, many lament that places are becoming progressively similar, even predicting the end of culture, in other words, a post-cultural world [7]. Fear of planetary collapse and rapid transformations may prove to be compelling inspirations for images of the future and may have also revived old myths and beliefs systems [8]. Few experts deny the profound challenges humankind faces on political, economic, social, cultural, and environmental fronts. Societies create cities based on their belief systems and furthermore, thriving societies have clear images of their way forward while societies without future images decline. As Polak states, ‘‘As long as a society’s image is positive and flourishing, the flower of culture is in full bloom. Once the image begins to decay and lose its vitality, however, the culture does not long survive’’ [1]. In his study on societal collapse, geographer Jared Diamond concurs. The environmental destruction of Easter Island and subsequent social failure was based on the inhabitants’ political, social, and religious beliefs and practices, represented by massive carved stone statues, the Moai, that served symbolic, spiritual, and functional purposes. When the islanders lost faith in the future, they toppled these iconic monuments in anger and disillusionment. What had been symbols of hope became targets of hopelessness, similar to the destruction of Stalin statues when the Communist regime collapsed [9]. While impoverished images of the future cannot directly cause social collapse, a lack of progressive images signifies weak foresight and may in fact be an early indicator of failing societies. In contrast, societies with viable images of the future thrive. European development in the Middle Ages centered on the spirituality of the culture and the cities flourished. Similarly, utopian images emerged in the Industrial era and the Age of Enlightenment, a time of great expansionism and prosperity [10]. The Garden City movement and Modern architecture are physical realizations of idealized utopian thoughts [11]. Polak effectively explained three thousand years of future images but from his close view of the twentieth century, he struggled to see beyond Modernity. In his opinion, future images depend on our ability to see transformation, a dual ‘‘Otherness’’ between today and tomorrow. However, in his view of modern thinking, existentialism, rationalism, and science created a ‘‘moment-ridden man,’’ where only present time existed so the future had no transformational images and consequently, no future existed [12]. While Polak’s comments can be justified because he was writing at the end of the Modern movement whose visual peak had passed, he also built a case for the significant role of images in seeing the future. Without robust images of the future, he could, and in fact did, accurately foresee the end of the Modern era. In his essay on images of future cities, I. F. Clarke paralleled Polak’s view both of the critical nature of images and the shift from utopian to dystopian narratives during the 20th century [13]. Images ‘‘serve as implants in the imagination. They help the mind to envisage and to contemplate all kinds of conceivable futures for humankind’’ [14]. He applauded extreme fantasies for their ability to stretch our ideas of the future, for example, an Earth Observation Station a thousand miles from Earth. Regarding the decline of positive images during the late Industrial Era, Clarke wholeheartedly agreed with Polak. In 1888, Edward Bellamy’s Looking Backward, among the last utopian books, spoke of better worlds to come. After World War I, several influential works instead considered the terror to come, most famously in Fritz Lang’s 1927 film Metropolis that featured a despotic industrial city. Extending the dystopic era of futures images to the 1980s, decline and post-Apocalyptic survival represent humankind’s divorce from the environment and fight with machines. I argue that in the past decade, numerous images have taken a positive turn towards sustainability and machines as partners, while others continue dystopic alternatives. In other words, in the post-Industrial Era, ambivalence rules. Yet, contrary to Polak’s fears, new images of the future abound. Based on the premise that myths underpin society’s values, I submit that only those images with mythic relevancy to a particular society resonate with people and effectively supply society with viable shapes of things to come. This study aims to explore the mythic roots of architectural images in order to use these cultural threads in to illustrate, identify, or generate futures scenarios. Due to rapid urbanization, cities and societies desperately need useful, inspiring images of possible futures.

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The vitality of metropolitan regions will be based on their ability to retain and attract residents by drawing on and representing diverse interests. For New York, Shanghai, Lagos, and Mumbai to grow not only in terms of enormous population but also as livable, sustainable communities, they need to represent diverse populations and generate a sense of identity, community, sacredness, and nature. Great cities depend on compelling images of the future grounded in living myths. 2.2. Seeing mythic origins in images of urban futures Contemporary cities and buildings always begin as ideas that are translated to images for consideration and dialogue prior to construction. To imagine the future, we necessarily travel through a series of concepts until we find those that resonate with our sense of viable futures. According to Polak, ‘‘The visual image may have the most direct impact on the general population, particularly if it stimulates its active participation in the imaging process’’ [15]. Images function by representing and shaping our identities and by inspiring hopes and dreams of possible futures. By serving both symbolic and constitutive functions, architectural images become not only a conduit for expressing a range of futures but also a means for understanding who we are and who we might become. Many studies of cities focus on observable data and quantitative analysis and fail to consider belief systems, ideologies, and values. To access multiple ways of knowing, Inayatullah [16] developed causal layered analysis (CLA). This method employs four vertical levels in a comprehensive framework: litanies/descriptions, systems/social causes, discourses/ worldviews, and myths/metaphors/images. ‘‘The utility of causal layered analysis is that it can categorize the many different perceptions of realities while remaining sensitive to horizontal and vertical spaces’’ [17]. Although myths and metaphors supply the foundation for thought and behavior, they are rarely examined. Instead, they remain unexposed as subconscious knowledge, buried under descriptions, social systems, and assumptions about reality, truth, and values. A causal layered approach enables analysis of empirical, interpretive, and implicit elements of urban futures. In this essay, I focus on worldviews and values apparent in archetypal myths and architectural images (levels three and four, respectively) and weave litanies and social causations (levels one and two, respectively) into the overview of variables and scenarios. Cultural myths underpin our belief systems and connect us to the cosmos or broadly held beliefs and values. Furthermore, myths supply us with social norms, our reasons for behaving certain ways, and are woven into narratives and assumptions that we believe are true, frequently stated as ‘‘it just is’’ [18]. Archetypes are first models which serve as commonly used patterns [19]. In terms of cities, archetypal myths refer to a collection or pattern based on an original model form that functions as a belief system. Archetypal myths in western cities include the shining city on the hill, Gaia or the ecologically green city, the City Beautiful Movement that is founded on a belief that architectural order can create social and moral order, and techno cities such as Fritz Lang’s film Metropolis. Each society, era, ideology, and geographic region develops a sense of its mythic self, including reuse and adjustments to existing mythic narratives to accommodate new situations thus renewing social vitality. For example, a particularly compelling image in America is Small Town U.S.A., mythologized as an ideal way of a life. Drawing on this myth, the New Urbanist movement has transformed thousands of new developments with the purpose of regaining walkable, intimate, mixed use neighborhoods [20]. Recognizing how functional needs and technological advances are envisioned and shaped through mythic images allows us to consider cultural values, meaning, and potential trajectory of future scenarios and the built environment. Myths take decades or generations to change so their influence is traceable both historically and into alternative futures; thus their longevity and stability make them advantageous for futures research [21]. In addition, images of future cities expand creative possibilities and articulate visions. Architectural images are among the most powerful ways to depict future scenarios because we gain a sense of what it might be like to experience and become part of future places, but not without risk, because the images may misrepresent the ideas. For example, a so-called high tech future can appear as a Jetsons cartoon image or as a Star Wars movie. A viewer may relate to one and not to the other, even though they both promote similar ideologies, i.e., a future where people live divorced from current cities and landscapes in artificial worlds rife with advanced technological gadgetry. Therefore, in these scenarios, I present images as types within a range of archetypal myths to illustrate and extend possible futures through visual dramatizations. In sum, recognizing the connectedness of ideologies and variables that frame scenarios in terms of threads or clusters of similar ideas allows us to explore the influence of belief systems on cities as patterns of mythic images. 3. Using images and myths in future city scenarios 3.1. Form givers for future cities The critical variables that drive the design and planning of cities are urbanization, sustainability, technology, security, economy, and cultural values. While some of these factors appear to be on coherent, upwards trajectories others are less certain and tend to be cyclical. For each, I briefly review major trends and systemic forces that shape future images and development patterns in cities as well as some opposing or counter-images. 3.1.1. Urbanization All major cities project anticipated demographic shifts and create elaborate scenarios of potential growth patterns. Developing countries will house the majority of fast growing mega-cities whose new residents will be primarily poor and

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living in slums. In contrast, developed countries anticipate modest growth or even shrinking cities and therefore seek to improve quality and revitalize existing districts and infrastructure [22]. Prosperous high growth cities tend to see their future as new development with technological innovation in transportation to build property values. Only in recent decades have urban rehabilitation and rejuvenation piqued future visions. Primarily, positive images of future cities are expressed as order, harmony, community, and pristine environments while dystopic urban images depict impending collapse with blight, poverty, waste, and alienation. 3.1.2. Sustainability The energy crisis and America’s ‘‘addiction to oil’’ is largely a function of the built environment and lifestyles [23]. Environmentally sustainable solutions involve compact settlement patterns, multi-modal transportation, conservation, alternative energy sources, and reduced waste, pollutions and carbon emissions. Images of future sustainable cities are depicted as green cities, Gaia, or Ecocities and emphasize communal values of collective sharing [24]. Opposing images illustrate Apocalyptic disasters from natural or artificial means such as floods, fires, drought and ensuing military or civil conflicts. 3.1.3. Technology Urban technological innovation includes transportation, communication systems, augmented realities, virtual worlds, and any form of ubiquitous or smart computing. Modernist future images of high tech cities were epitomized by gleaming towers and spaceship shapes and have been realized in futuristic architecture such as the Chemosphere residence by John Lautner in Los Angeles, Buckminster Fuller’s Dymaxion House, and Epcot’s Spaceship Earth geodesic sphere at Disney World. Contrary to the visions of large-scale Industrial Era projects such as highway systems and skyscrapers, much technology is becoming smaller and less visible. Technological advances in future cities may be less immediately apparent such as integrated computerization and nano-technological enhancements. Therefore, technologically driven future images are frequently represented as cyber-cities or rhizomatic cities in response to virtuality and miniaturization while extending visions of mega-structures and techno-cities that appalled Polak at the end of the Modern era. In contrast, recent movements towards calm, slow, compact cities represent an opposing view [25]. 3.1.4. Security With the rising threat of terrorism, fortified buildings, gated communities, and electronic surveillance are increasing. Natural disasters, such as intensified tsunamis, forest fires, and Katrina-like flooding have city planners rethinking infrastructure with elevated roads, reinforced barriers, and possible abandonment of at-risk areas. Security concerns are manifested in cities by segregation and fortification. Images of high security futures include Jeremy Bentham’s octagonal Panopticon with a central point of surveillance, walled and fortified buildings or districts, gothic or castle imagery with battlements, turrets, and minimal openings, and remote, concealed structures. Reverse responses are depicted as open, accessible, communal images. 3.1.5. Economic cycles Jane Jacobs proposed that cities are ‘‘primary economic organs’’ that gain strength through growth and using local goods and services in lieu of imports [26]. Greater use of local resources is in fact a central premise of sustainability and a form of urban self-reliance. As a complementary trend, polycentric regions link several cities into networked economies to compete globally which simultaneously increase the urban complexity in terms of built form, economic functions, and cultural representation [27]. Notably, cultural values influence allocations of economic resources; for instance, socio-economic class inequalities in Dubai and Sao Paulo result in slums segregated from elite walled districts. In contrast, vibrant public spaces and integrated transit systems in Curitiba, Brazil and Portland, Oregon reflects strong community values. Future images of prosperous cities feature wealth, growth, clean industries, and vigorous lifestyles while masking blight and poverty. Similar to cities with decreased population or reverse-urbanization, future images of cities in economic decline depict suffering from decay and crime. 3.1.6. Cultural values Value systems such as religious, political, and cultural beliefs are represented in the built form of cities. In the Middle Ages, European cities expressed their spirituality with plans and architecture that glorified religious doctrine [28]. Industrial cities used zoning to segregate uses and classes into specialized districts and gridded street patterns that aptly suggest machine metaphors. These images illustrate a scientific monism of Modernism which Polak decried as dehumanizing and sterile. All types of values are expressed in architecture and urban form. For example, public power is evident in monumental civic structures, military power in ceremonial statues and memorials, and corporate power in skyscrapers and corporate campuses. Open plazas, town squares, walkable boulevards and intimate neighborhoods signify shared community values while gated districts, mansions, and secured districts value exclusivity. 3.2. Critical uncertainties of economic cycles and cultural values Of these six factors, economic strength and cultural values exercise more uncertainty on future cities in part because they tend to fluctuate cyclically. Consequently, futures scenarios need to accommodate a range or spectrum of conditions for each

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to anticipate the ebb and flow dynamics. In comparison to these two factors, urbanization, sustainability, technology, and security factors by and large indicate advancing or upwards trends for the next few decades and their urban manifestations are deeply influenced by the variables of economics and values. For example, a long economic downturn with conservative values might be accompanied by a heightened concern for security while a liberal perspective might focus on resource management and social concerns. Furthermore, if in the process of massive urbanization we fail to embrace sustainable, secure practices, future alternatives will be restricted to survival issues. In support of my thesis, Michael Shermer finds economic and political forces are the primary factors that could prevent civilization from effectively harnessing the energy resources of the planet as required for continued advancement [29]. In terms of CLA, economic issues represent the systems/ social cause level and prevailing values represent the worldview level. Because of the relatively quick cycle patterns of these two factors, any of the combinations may be experienced within a two-decade timeframe, and therefore signify viable scenarios for consideration. The history of urban economic cycles can be visually identified by growth spurts in a city, somewhat like growth rings on a tree. During periods of prosperity, new commercial and residential projects expand and during times of financial recession, new construction slows considerably. Notably, public projects and infrastructure do not necessarily reflect these cycles because public funding is stabilized by various public financial mechanisms. Economic cycles determine if a city adds new jobs that mandate additional commercial construction and neighborhoods to accommodate increased population or suffers from malignant blight and at times depopulation. In fact, economic cycles affect socio-economic classes differently, for example, growth may be widespread and class-blind or may privilege certain groups such as the case of the wealth gap, which is then reflected in construction patterns. The city is a visual map of economic conditions over time. How those resources are distributed depends on the influence of values and belief systems. Similarly, values change with each generation, some say via cycles while others see more progressive or spiral developmental trends [30]. In a thirteen year study of American cultural values, Ray and Anderson [31] identified three subcultures which they named Traditionals, Moderns, and Integrals. Traditionals tend to be conventional, conservative, and authoritative. Moderns reflect secular, measured, scientifically oriented values. Integrals embrace nature, spiritual growth, and community. To translate these values to architecture, traditional design refers to classical forms or historically recognizable features, such as the Paris Opera House or the United States Capitol building. ‘‘Traditionalism is a culture of memory.’’ Traditionals represent ‘‘the old story,’’ which look backward as opposed to forward. They favor separation of ideas, people, and functions into definitive typologies or districts, conventional or classical design that links to historic images, economic interests over social investment, and private ownership rights over public or community rights [32]. Modern or international design uses abstract geometry and avoids historic references as a critique on neo-classical or traditional design, typified by the former World Trade Center towers in New York (Fig. 1). The machine-like appearance of Modern design perhaps personifies the nihilistic imagery Polak refuted. In contrast, Integrals are ‘‘bridging an old way of life and a new one’’ [33]. They prefer diversity, multi-culturalism, connections to nature, experimental design, public cooperation, and community spaces. Integral architecture may be represented by so-called deconstruction or post-structuralism (although no label has stuck), exemplified by the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao. Frequently rejected by pure Modernists, these images express dynamic forces and defy simple explanations. Although Modern designs continue to be built in terms of strong geometric, unadorned buildings, if Polak, Ray, and Anderson are right, this value system has reached its maturity and therefore offers limited viability for future decades [34]. In [(Fig._1)TD$IG] TRADITIONALS Rural, small town more virtuous than big cities

MODERNS New York skyline, technology, arts rule, experts design

Customary, familiar ways of life, look to past for inspiration

Science & engineering models for truth; production & distribution

INTEGRALS Rebuild neighborhoods & communities; vernacular; experimental Foreign and exotic concepts; cultural/regional newly expressed

Conservative, conventional beliefs Family, church, & community are where you belong

Secular, but nature is sacred

Nature is sacred Ecological sustainability Networks, egalitarian organizations

Restrict immorality, live by rules, separations

What gets measured gets done; organizational hierarchies; ‘Time is money’ Protes tant, not self actualizing beliefs Universal values, morals, & social practices; individual freedoms

Patriarchal, authoritarian, traditional roles

Success, production, efficiency, know-how

Equality, redefine roles

Separate from Otherness, exclusivity

Recognize, study Otherness; experts; civil & women's rights

Embrace Otherness, inclusivity

Individuals, private rights

Pragmatic merits, not idealistic

Society, public rights

Religious conservatives

Spiritual and psychological approaches Personal growth, self actualizing; east meets west

Based on Paul H. Ray & Sherry R. Anderson, The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People Are Changing the World, 2001

Fig. 1. Cultural values.

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this tripartite value system, I suggest the center subculture, currently Moderns, is always the most recent past. The right column is the emergent subculture, open to experimentation and novelty, currently represented by Integrals. Consequently, like Moderns previously, Integrals may soon peak, become the center group, and a new experimental subculture will be identified. The left column represents traditional values, which have a timeless appeal even in the face of, or perhaps most notably during, eras of great change as a reaction against innovation and fear of the unknown. In addition, each column reacts to the other subcultures. Moderns offer rationality and evidence in the face of Traditionals’ cultural beliefs. Integrals think holistically in contrast to Moderns’ scientific boxes. For maximum contrast, I focus on the extremes of Traditional and Integral forms in order to compare reactionary, past-oriented imagery with progressive, future-oriented imagery [35]. As I interpret the two subcultures, Traditionals and Integrals overlap in the arenas of vernacular and historic architecture and in the movement called New Urbanism but their reasons and implementations differ. Traditionals preserve buildings because the architecture is familiar and stabilizing to society and will demolish urban fabric as a part of a ‘‘free market’’ economic philosophy. Integrals preserve because historic preservation is part of the ecology of place; historic structures and districts are valued in their own right and deserve protection. While Traditionals want to mimic or even return to the past and favor additions to structures that replicate old images, Integrals privilege new expressions and additions to historic structures that complement but assert distinct contrasts through use of innovative contemporary images. Similarly, traditional neighborhood design (TND), or new urbanism, falls in the gray area between these two cultural types. While both Traditionals and Integrals embrace the urban planning concepts of walkable communities with village commons and mixed uses in compact districts that is the core of TND, the reasoning and architectural approaches are different. Traditionals seek a return to the past that mimics an idealized Small Town narrative with replications of historic architecture and closed communities. In comparison, Integrals use compact mixed-use districts and transit oriented development (TOD) to invent a new lifestyle that embraces differences and openness in terms of re-interpreted vernacular designs, also called critical regionalism. In these two arenas, historic preservation and New Urbanism, the two types may convey similar interests, however, the narratives, purposes, and architectural manifestations are distinct. In sum, Traditionals imagine historic structures and New Urbanist communities to replicate the past within the realm of a private market, while Integrals preserve cultural heritage and reinterpret the original historic ideas in contemporary or futurized images. Many consider cycles of economic expansion and contraction as a natural part of society [36]. These cycles influence urban growth and development, creating eras of prosperity and decline. However, in both types of economic eras, values influence investments and developmental decisions. Based on the assumptions that urbanization, sustainability, technology, and security will continue their current trajectories, the next section will consider alternative futures scenarios based on the two variables of economic and social value cycles.

4. Mythic images of future cities Based on the critical uncertainties of economic conditions and swings in social values, four alternative scenarios are generated. The scenarios represent possible futures for American cities in the next two decades, illustrated with images from a competition about future architectural design [37]. The economic factor ranges from modest growth to decline as currently experienced in cities of developed countries rather than extremes of boom or collapse, not to discount potential surprises but to explore the possibilities of long-term, distinct patterns. In terms of social values, traditionalism is contrasted with an integral worldview. Within each scenario, archetypal images are traced through history and connected to mid-twenty first century. The scenarios are entitled Frontier Freedoms, Urban Fortress, Eco-Survival, and Utopian Hopes. 4.1. Frontier freedoms (modest economic growth, traditional values) Based on a belief in individual rights and Manifest Destiny, Americans have a sense of progress and domination over the land through know-how and strong work ethic. In Frontier Freedoms, competition, power, and security drive the upper classes while lower and middle classes live essentially in socioeconomic decline, the so-called economic divide. Although moderate growth occurs, wealth is accumulated privately among fewer people. Terrorism remains a major threat so surveillance technology and private security forces guard exclusive districts with barriers separating them from blighted areas. In fact, through demographic inversion, higher economic classes have moved to the core to take advantage of rich cultural attractions and entertainment venues developed through public/private partnerships. Wealthier citizens demolished many first ring suburbs and installed exclusive walled theme districts to feel safe. A diminished middle class continues to build neighborhoods cheaply at the urban perimeter, thus perpetuating sprawl. The roots of Frontier Freedoms come from ancient Rome, which commemorated military battles with triumphal arches and statues on promenade routes and honored gods and prominent citizens with monumental buildings. In the Middle Ages, castles continued the segregation between town folks and the ruling class. During the twentieth and early twenty-first century, iconic skyscrapers were symbols of global power with growth nations vying for world’s tallest building. Frontier Freedoms emphasizes ‘‘kingdom’’ images with buildings sited on open landscape rather than tightly knit blocks (Fig. 2). A pedestrian walkway over the Hudson River expresses an innovative solution for overcoming a natural barrier and building an icon of progress (Fig. 3).

[(Figs._2 and 3)TD$FIG]

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Figs. 2 and 3. To blend east and west influences, a mixed use district for Wuxi, China employs powerful vertical elements (Cordogan, Clark and Associates); Pedestrian bridge connects New York with New Jersey (Eytan Kaufman International).

[(Figs._4 and 5)TD$FIG]

Figs. 4 and 5. Urban Fortress, restoration with hardened perimeter for security (Nate Klinge and Brad Baer, Iowa State University); mobile chapels transported to sites (Coinsure Cawthon Davis).

4.2. Urban fortress (economic decline, traditional values) In Urban Fortress, security threats from increased crime (an offshoot of enormous poverty) and terrorism produce fortified communities and buildings. Historically, cave dwellers and indigenous tribes relied on local resources and fought threats from other groups and nature. In the Middle Ages, walled cities protected townsfolk, which was a strategy repeated in the late twentieth century when the remote retro village of Poundbury, England removed residents from the threat of urban living. Renovation and adaptive reuse projects dominate urban redevelopment. Solid, conventional, hardened imagery controls building design. Compact, traditional neighborhoods built during the New Urbanist movement such as the rebuilt Kentlands in Maryland gated their perimeters, banned cars, and practiced self-sufficiency in food and energy. Prefabricated additions, recycled shipping containers, and demolished building parts append older structures. Existing buildings are hardened by heavy overhangs and barricades attached to the perimeter (Fig. 4). Without adequate resources, many roads are simply abandoned. Furthermore, buildings are shared and transported from one location to another, such as mobile churches (Fig. 5). If economic decline continues, ‘‘Urban Fortress’’ may descend into dystopia. 4.3. Eco-survival (economic decline, integral values) As the American economy fell into long term decline with cycles of stagnation and deflation, environmental self sufficiency previously seen as an ethical commitment became a mandate. House sharing is common and people sense a deep connectedness with each other and the earth. Community cars, bikes, tools, and basic equipment allow people to rarely leave the area. With diffused energy and telecommuting, some groups set up communes in remote locations. However, most people choose to congregate within dense urban footprints in order to enjoy the social aspects of urban culture and benefits of communal bartering. Resources are localized and sharing and reusing materials are mandatory for survival. The mythic roots of Eco-Survival spring from Stonehenge. In the late 1900s, underground dwellings such as Dietikon, Switzerland and eco-structures such Eden Project in Cornwall, England carved the path towards Eco-Survival cities. In 2030, cities are living systems with more energy produced than used. Americans focus on education and wellness, a transformational leap from conspicuous consumption at the turn of the millennium. Spirituality is part of daily life, including pilgrimages to eco-temples (Fig. 6). In construction, new materials are rare, instead opting to trade or re-tool salvaged parts. Creative art from reused objects are commonly seen in yards. Frequently houses are joined with building connectors in order to form shared common spaces and allow a third or fourth family in a townhouse arrangement.

[(Fig._6)TD$IG]

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Fig. 6. Remote chapel of rough stones and found wood (Goody Clancy).

[(Fig._7)TD$IG]

Fig. 7. Utopian Hopes cultural center (A. Gumowksi, K. Van de Riel and S. Mueller).

4.4. Utopian Hopes (modest economic growth, integral values) American visions have always relied on utopian ideals, the shining city on the hill. Athens represents the epitome, the first democracy where the Acropolis and agora (open market and public space for civic gatherings) signified the heart of the community. For Utopian Hopes, education and health abound while poverty, blight, and crime declined. The shared braintrust of the country enables an avalanche of innovation and along with a wave of productive immigrants created an economic rebound from near-catastrophic debts and deficits and an aging population. Universities reversed their downward slide and community-integrated campuses are now vital parts of American prosperity. During the late 20th century and early millennial years, amazing designs of major public venues such as the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao, Spain by Frank Gehry and Beijing National Stadium (Bird’s Nest) by Jacques Herzog and Pierre de Meuron broke conventional molds of modern architectural doctrines. A new age of experimental sustainable designs emerged. New cultural complexes integrate multiple venues in free-flowing forms integrated with the landscape (Fig. 7). Through innovation and ideas, future visions inspire new hope. 5. Discussion and future research directions 5.1. Dissecting the usefulness of urban scenarios, archetypal myths, and images While many of these images of the future address environmental constraints and security that are negative conditions, by and large, these four scenarios represent positive images. In principle, designers assume progress and growth and that optimistic bias is evident in the architectural depictions. Notably, few architectural or urban design images are devised as images of the future; the vast majority is pragmatic project design solutions or elements of city planning projects, which are characteristically images of the present. The most emergent built architectural designs portend the future for other buildings and consequently are forward-focused. Since the purpose of this study is to imagine possible futures rather than study the present, I used architectural images specifically developed as future fantasies free from project constraints, which essentially equate to alternative visual scenarios. In addition, each scenario can be tied to a mythic archetype: Frontier, Fortress, Gaia, and Utopia. Each myth supplies a different foundation and distinct approach for solving situations of economic prosperity or decline that reflect society’s values of Traditional or Integral. Based on decades of scenario research, the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies identified five common archetypes as ‘‘general ‘families’ of scenarios,’’ which are: Business As Usual (or Continued Growth),

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Disciplined Society (or Ideological Exclusionism, related to conservatism, and at extremes, fundamentalism), Environmental Sustainability (Green Politics), Spiritual Transcendence (Age of Aquarius), and High Technological Transformation [38]. The scenarios in this study complement these five archetypes but do not mirror them because of my methodological structure that uses economic and value cycles as variables. At a conceptual level, Business as Usual can be seen as the Frontier myth, Disciplined Society as the Fortress myth, Environmental Sustainability as the Gaia myth, and Spiritual Transcendence as the Utopian myth [39]. While High Technology is assumed in all four scenarios, Modernist imagery most closely relates to this archetype, which is not reflected in these scenarios. Attention to archetypes and archetypal myths results in parallel scenarios despite two different approaches employed, namely, the Hawaii Research Center identified patterns in the outcomes of numerous scenario workshops while I employed issues analysis to generate scenarios. Myth systems and worldviews are not used in this essay to evaluate the validity or legitimacy of these belief systems. Instead, I develop the trajectories of variables with two purposes. First, this study aims to explore links between worldviews and images using CLA and scenario development. By linking images to values and myths, we learn to identify worldviews as manifested in cities, which enables us to be more informed and develops visual-cultural literacy. Second, developing future scenarios for cities supplies us with visions and choices for the future. Thinking critically, each scenario warrants different questions.  Frontier Freedoms (Prosperity/Traditionals): Do strong images of authoritative power represent a place and its citizens? Are Rome, feudal castles, and kingdoms valid or useful ancestral models? What is our relationship with nature? In times of moderate prosperity, how do we wisely invest the additional resources? Is there a range of conservative architectural and urban design character beyond those depicted?  Urban Fortress (Economic decline/Traditionals): How does living in fortressed communities or buildings change our lives? Besides fortification, what other conservative responses are there to security fears? Can conservationism be linked to conservativism to create a preferred future that satisfies environmental and Traditional needs? How is innovation defined in a conservative era of low resources? What is the future of artistic expression in this environment?  Eco-Survival (Economic decline/Integrals): Will a communal lifestyle work in an individualistic society? Are there other reasons for or causes of increased community spirit and conservation besides economic decline and limited resources? In an Integral society, how will spiritual sensibilities be expressed or integrated into the city beyond religious institutions? Do isolated communities generate a new type of provincialism that could lead to biases and fear? How will political and social institutions serve society in Eco-survival?  Utopian Hopes (Prosperity/Integrals): If a prosperous, forward-looking future emerges, will tall and big still be valued in architectural monumentality? How will diversity be represented? Will we conserve and be holistic about resource allocation (an essential characteristic of long-term thinking)? Who will be the outsiders in an Integral society? What is the future of the dark sides of society, such as prisons, frail populations, landfills, blight, and poverty? Will health, government, and education continue to build segregated facilities? If public services are integrated into the community, what are the new visual icons of the city? Finally, while a prevailing paradigm may dominate an era or city, none exist alone. Ray and Anderson found that society is a mix of Traditionals, Moderns, and Integrals. Therefore, how do the three types co-exist? How will they evolve in terms of phasing out, shrinking, expanding, transforming, or developing new types? How do we represent all types in cities, or are some types underrepresented? Recognizing these possible archetypal scenarios in cities and linking values and resource allocation to built form enables us to envision and potentially influence choices about future cities. 5.2. Possible paths of future research This study could lead down several additional paths. To take a critical approach, opposing and marginalized images can also be imagined. The invisible parts of the city such as slums, landfills, and abandoned areas are missing from these images. Currently, problems exist in the images of congested highways, blight, and poverty, and simply as eyesores such as strip shopping centers, parking lots, uninviting streets, cacophonic signage, and bland neighborhoods. Consequently, a montage of the future of urban ugliness would make a useful study. Over half a century ago, Jane Jacobs foresaw the loss of humanity in automobile-oriented planning [40]. Her greatest fears have come to pass. All developed countries have cities that are diminished by the loss of streetlife, diversified districts, and common public spaces. At other extreme of developing countries, rapid growth coupled with poverty resulted in over a billion people living in slums. This problem shows no signs of abating; as three billion people move to cities, most will live in self-constructed slums [41]. Perhaps equally shocking, governments and developers might offer poorly conceived futures such as harsh tenement blocks or endless sprawl, rather than livable, sustainable cities tightly knit with diverse cultures integrated with nature. In other words, to move beyond separation of functions and classes to invent cities that represent whole communities and multiple worldviews, aspirations of high quality, sustainable communities must be inculcated in society so that cities do not merely grow; they make qualitative leaps. These images focus on architecture while urban patterns are implied or described in the scenario texts. Another study could consider the four scenarios of Frontier, Fortress, Gaia, and Utopia at a larger scale of district or metropolitan qualities.

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For instance, are public spaces and parks elite and closed or open and accessible? Are districts shared, tightly woven, and densely packed, or are they removed and isolated? What types of landmarks and barriers orient and constrain people? Furthermore, what is the meaning of each of these choices? Are we building diverse, open, accessible places for innovation and spiritually balanced lives? Or will our future cities be hardened, segregated, and slum-filled dystopias that encourage crime, fear, waste, and segregation? Imagining future cities with archetypal myths situates our ideas in cultural contexts. The factors of economics and values are perhaps blunt instruments, used in order to explore with the possibilities of images and words in future scenarios. Nuanced terms between the extremes might supply a deeper analysis or more compelling futures. Since cities are complex, all four scenarios may be present in a single city. Images cannot be taken literally but part of a dialogic process to encourage understanding and consequences of various choices and trajectories. The method of analyzing images of the future could be reversed, starting with images to identify patterns of values instead of illustrating scenarios developed through issues analysis. Random images could be labeled with corresponding values and then clusters formed to see what images evoked particular value responses. The results could build a framework of possible images for various categories. The method I used emphasizes scenario development and illustration. The reversed method builds a library of images categorized by values. Both methods expand our visual vocabulary and images of the future. While this study employed an abstract notion of cities and architecture, a situated analysis of a city or district would benefit from a reverse methodology because the images would be finite and useful as a visual catalogue of a distinctive place. Linking values to images allows ideas to surface and ideologies to be examined. Otherwise, discussions about future cities tend to be restricted to descriptive and systems language, the causal layers of litany and systems that are primarily quantitative and objective. Furthermore, a causal layered method of scenario development enables planning processes to incorporate imagery into future scenarios. Myth, metaphor, and images expose values and beliefs, the third and fourth causal layers. Thus, the conversation expands to issues of quality and meaning. In other words, why we live the way we do can be considered along with how. 6. Conclusions Considering that urban settlements represent one of humankind’s most amazing achievements, development is left largely to special interests and experts who do not frequently employ futures methodologies. Images of the future supply a powerful tool to envision possible trajectories, expose those ideas for examination, and serve as a way of both developing and knowing possible futures. However, to be able to employ images proficiently, we need to develop practices and analytical vocabulary. Linking myths and imagery of the fourth level of causal layered analysis to economic causes, social values, and belief systems in the second and third levels triggers different ways of knowing. By utilizing these tools and layers, images of the future become not only more vivid but also more deeply considered. In doing so, process, tendencies, choices, and consequences are preferred to definitive goals and targets. We shift from image as a goal to image as a process. Visualization methods facilitate greater understanding and tinkering with possible futures and trigger non-linear responses. As we learn and engage with images, they can spur new ideas and inspirations, in effect, bring a new vibrancy to scenario thinking. Perhaps if Fred Polak revisited his concerns about images of the future he would find that he was right regarding his immediate future, the second half of the twentieth century. After the vitality of the Industrial Age and Modernism peaked mid-century, cities and all types of images suffered decades of impoverished imagination. If city planners and leaders had paid attention, we might have been very afraid of that immediate future. However, if Polak looked further out, perhaps he would see that his clarion call was heard and, after several decades of confusion, people adjusted. As the millennium neared, new forces reignited images of the future. No longer do we envision the mono-future of a sterile techno-city as Polak feared. New inspiration from sustainability, local cultural claims to balance (and hopefully complement as opposed to conflict with) rapid globalization, and renewed aspirations for livable communities motivate searches for identity and purpose. People are exploring a range of amazing ideas that no doubt will be far more surprising than current future fantasies. As we cultivate visualization skills for possible futures, surely our images and imaginations will soar to meet new challenges. The more we understand the influences of trends and values on cities, the more we will be able to articulate scenario images of cities as vital, sustainable futures. References [1] F. Polak, The Image of the Future, Elsevier Scientific Publishing, Amsterdam, 1973 (translated and abridged by E. Boulding, first published in 1961), p. 19. [3] O.E. Byrum, Old Problems in New Times: Urban Strategies for the 1990s, Center for Urban and Regional Affairs, Minneapolis, MN, 1991; P. Calthorpe, W. Fulton, The Regional City: Planning for the End of Sprawl, Island Press, Washington, D.C, 2001; A. Duany, E. Plater-Zyberk, J. Speck, Suburban Nation: The Rise of Sprawl and the Decline of the American Dream, North Point Press, New York, 2000; J.H. Kunstler, The Geography of Nowhere: The Rise and Decline of America’s Man-Made Landscape, Free Press, Glencoe, IL, 1994; A number of books and articles explain current problems of American cities and the urban development process due to the dominance of cars and private development and a lack of environmental sustainability; a few notable examples from the past two decades are noted. [4] S. Inayatullah (Ed.), The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader, Tamkang University Press, Taipei, 2004. [5] S. Sassen, Global Cities, Linked Networks, Routledge, New York, 2002; Cities depend on growth to flourish and increasingly compete global to attract new residents and businesses. [6] United Nations Population Reference Bureau, http://www.prb.org/Articles/2007/UrbanPopToBecomeMajority.aspx.

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[7] C. Clausen, Faded Mosaic: The Emergence of Post-Cultural America, Ivan R. Dee Publisher, Chicago, 2000; To cite one representative example, Clausen claims that ‘‘contemporary United States has neither one big culture nor a number of smaller ones, only a strange mixture of freedom and nostalgia.’’. [8] B. Malinowski, Magic, Science and Religion and Other Essays, Waveland Press, Prospects Heights, IL, 1948. [9] J. Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Penguin, New York, 2005, pp. 99–119. [10] T. Atkin, J. Rykwert, Structure and Meaning in Human Settlements, University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archeology and Anthropology, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 2005. [11] S. Kostov, The City Shaped: Urban Patterns Through History, Bulfinch Press, Boston, MA, 1991. [12] F. Polak, The Image of the Future, Elsevier Scientific Publishing, Amsterdam, 1973 (translated and abridged by E. Boulding, first published in 1961), p. 229. [13] I.F. Clarke, The city: heaven-on-earth or the hell-to-come? Futures 24 (7) (1992) 701–710. [14] I.F. Clarke, The city: heaven-on-earth or the hell-to-come? Futures 24 (7) (1992), p. 709. [15] F. Polak, The Image of the Future, Elsevier Scientific Publishing, Amsterdam, 1973(translated and abridged by E. Boulding, first published in 1961), pp. 2–3. [16] S. Inayatullah, Causal layered analysis: theory, historical context, and case studies; Deconstructing and reconstructing the future: predictive, cultural, and critical epistemologies, in: S. Inayatullah (Ed.), The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader, Tamkang University Press, Taipei, 2004, pp. 1–83. [17] S. Inayatullah, Causal layered analysis: theory, historical context, and case studies; Deconstructing and reconstructing the future: predictive, cultural, and critical epistemologies, in: S. Inayatullah (Ed.), The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader, Tamkang University Press, Taipei, 2004, p. 43. [18] W.G. Doty, Mythography: The Study of Myths and Rituals, second ed., University of Alabama Press, Tuscaloosa, AL, Tuscaloosa, 2000. [19] J. Campbell, The Hero with a Thousand Faces, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1949; M. Eliade, Cosmos and History: The Myth of the Eternal Return, Harper, New York, 1959; C.G. Jung, Memories, Dreams, Reflections, Vintage, New York, 1963; Archetypal myths are based on an idea of collective unconscious. Either we know the myths as learned from culture or intuitively; either way, myths typically are considered assumed fact. [20] J.A. Dutton, New American Urbanism: Re-forming the Suburban Metropolis, Skira Architecture Library, Milano, IT, 2000. [21] S. Inayatullah, Causal layered analysis: theory, historical context, and case studies; Deconstructing and reconstructing the future: predictive, cultural, and critical epistemologies, in: S. Inayatullah (Ed.), The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader, Tamkang University Press, Taipei, 2004, p. 16. [22] The World Watch Institute, State of the World: Our Urban Future, W.W. Norton and Company, New York, 2007; Storm Cunningham, Restoration Economy: The Greatest New Growth Frontier, Berrett-Kohler Publishers, San Francisco, CA, 2002. [23] United States Energy Information Agency Statistics Center, http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=US, In the United States, cities including buildings and transportation are responsible for seventy-five per cent of energy consumption with a baseline projection of a thirty-four percent increase by 2030. [24] R. Register, Ecocities: Rebuilding Cities in Balance with Nature, revised ed., New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, B.C., 2006; P. Daffara, Sustainable city futures, in: S. Inayatullah (Ed.), The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader, Tamkang University Press, Taipei, 2004, pp. 424–438. [25] N. Swift, Slow cities movement offers alternative to global mediocrity, 11 Oct 2004, http://www.citymayors.com/environment/slow_cities.html. [26] J. Jacobs, Economy of Cities, Vintage Books, New York, 1969. [27] P. Hall, K. Pain, The Polycentric Metropolis: Learning from Mega-City Regions in Europe, Earthscan, London, 2006. [28] S. Kostof, The City Shaped: Urban Patterns and Meanings through History, Bulfinch Press, Boston, MA, 1991, pp. 110–111; In the Middle Ages, cities were considered a necessary means to the virtuous life, a path to knowing God, and planned around the church site. ‘‘Founding a town was the royal equivalent of the creation of the world.’’ With the advent of surveying instruments, an abstract grid enabled idealized patterns that formed perfect schemes, a science of town planning that was the hallmark of the Industrial Era. [29] M. Shermer, Toward a Type I Civilization, Los Angeles Times, July 22, 2008, http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-shermer222008jul22,0,5301697.story, Shermer’s comments were based on the Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev’s concept of three types of civilization: Type 1 can harness all of the energy of its home planet; Type 2 can harness all of the energy of its sun; and Type 3 can harvest all of the energy of its solar system. In 1973, Carl Sagan claimed that on a scale of 0.1 to 1.0, civilization at that time was a Type 0.7, which is now updated to a Type 0.72. Shermer determined a set of definitions for each level, where Type 0.7 means ‘‘democracies that divide power over several institutions.. The beginnings of a market economy.’’ To achieve Type 1.0, changes were largely political and economic, such as voting rights for all citizens, all knowledge digitized and accessible, and completely free markets without interference from states or governments. [30] I. Khaldun, The Muqaddimah: Introduction to History, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2004 (abridged, translated by Franz Rosenthal, first published in 1377); P. Sorokin, Social and Cultural Dynamics: A Study of Change in Major Systems of Art, Truth, Ethics, Law and Social Relationships, Porter Sargent Publisher, Boston, MA, 1957 (revised and abridged); W. Strauss, N. Howe, Generations: The History of America’s Future, William Morrow and Company, Inc., New York, 1991, pp. 1584–2069; D. Beck, C. Cowan, Spiral Dynamics: Mastering Values, Leadership and Change, Blackwell Publishing, Malden, MA, 1996. [31] P.H. Ray, S.R. Anderson, The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People are Changing the World, Three Rivers Press, New York, 2001; P.H. Ray, The rise of integral culture, Noetic Sciences Review 37 (Spring) (1996) 4; Ray described Transmodern as Integral culture and also as Cultural Creatives; I use Integral as a more value-neutral term than the other two options [32] P.H. Ray, S.R. Anderson, The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People are Changing the World, Three Rivers Press, New York, 2001, p. 80. [33] P.H. Ray, S.R. Anderson, The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People are Changing the World, Three Rivers Press, New York, 2001, p. 87. [34] Ray, Anderson, 70, Modernism peaked in the 1920s and ended around 1970 (although continues to be practiced in many fields, including design and science), which therefore places these images in the past. [35] J. Haidt, What makes people vote Republican? Edge: The Third Culture, http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/haidt08/haidt08_index.html, Similar to Ray and Anderson’s research, Haidt focuses on liberal and conservative values which closely mirror Integrals and Traditionals, further justifying a bi-focal approach. [36] The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) classifies an economy as being in expansion/growth (normal conditions) or contraction/decline. Expansion is when several pieces of economic data are improving, and contraction is a decline in the same data (http://www.nber.org/cycles/ recessions.html), The Economist, Catch the wave, (February 18, 1999) http://www.economist.com/surveys/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_TRGGNR. [37] The images of future architecture were prepared by various American architects for Future Fantasies, a competition sponsored by the American Institute of Architects in summer 2007, http://www.aia.org/aiarchitect/tw070727.cfm. [38] W. Schultz, Scenario archetypes: a map of basic structures, Infinite Futures, http://www.infinitefutures.com/essays/prez/scenarch/sld001.htm. [39] Comparing archetypal myths to the four scenarios, Business as Usual and Disciplined Society relate to Traditional values; therefore, Frontier Freedoms coincides with Business as Usual and Urban Fortress is similar to the Disciplined Society. Similarly, Spiritual Transcendence relates to Integral values which frame Utopian Hopes and Eco-Survival. Furthermore, while sustainable development is assumed on all four scenarios, ecological bias is specifically an element of Integral values, and consequently built into Utopian Hopes and Eco-Survival scenarios. In addition High Technology is assumed for all four scenarios and flourishes in modest economic prosperity (Frontier Freedoms and Utopian Hopes) while more primitive innovations developed in the two economic decline scenarios. [40] J. Jacobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Random House, New York, 1961. [41] United Nations Human Settlements Programme, The Challenge of Slums: Global Report on Human Settlements, Earthscan Publications Ltd., London, 2003.