British transport policy

R. M. Mackay, S. D. Probert

198

TABLE 9 Final-user growth rates in energy demand per annum for the period 199Cb2020 Growth rate

Sector

0 to 0 to +0.4 to +0.8 to + 1.3 to +o.s to

Domestic Iron and steel Other industries Service Transport (on the demand side) Overall final user

+0.2% +0.7% + 1.2% + 1.2% +2.2% + 1.4%

TABLE 10 Total final-users’ energy demand coarse projections (in Mtoe year-‘)

UBV CMV LBV

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

154.7 154.7 154.7

168.6 163.8 157.5

181.4 173.4 163.5

192.3 181.6 168.6

206.4 193.0 177.4

222.3 206.3 187.2

265r

65 1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

YEAR

Fig. 14. Total final energy-consumption

approximate predictions for the UK.

area where significant increases are likely to occur: this is in electricity generation.

BRITISH

TRANSPORT

POLICY

The energy-demand side

The total amount of energy used annually in the UK for transport has already overtaken those for the industrial and domestic sectors. Figure 15 shows, quite staggeringly, that most of the huge increase in passenger transport in the UK, since the early 195Os, is due to the use of cars and

Integrated policies for energy and the environment

Fig. 15. Passenger

250 1

QZi

transport

199

by mode within the UK.

ROAD

0

WATER

m

PlPELlNE

kSXl

RAIL

YEAR

Fig. 16. Freight

transport

by mode within the UK.

vans (including lorries). 27 We also see that the mileage travelled by people on buses and coaches has declined, whereas rail transport (despite the Dr Beeching cuts of 1963) has remained approximately constant over the past 45 years. Air transport is the only other mode to show a steady growth, but the number of passenger-kilometres travelled in this sector is quite insignificant by comparison. The slight decline in car travel from 1990 to 1992 was the result of the UK’s economic recession, but all indications are that both car travel and ownership will increase significantly yet again. Figure 16 shows the corresponding trends for freight traffic, with rises in transport by road, water and pipelines, but a decline in transport by rail.

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200

The likely future growth in car travel is of great concern for the energy policy maker for two main reasons. Firstly, the increasing demand for fuel (almost exclusively petrol and diesel fuel) is a problem. For the UK, this will become a serious issue as its Continental Shelf (i.e. UKCS) reserves of crude petroleum are further depleted-not only by users in the UK but potentially in continental Europe as well-and as the unit costs of extraction rise. Secondly, the UK is obliged to reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides. By the end of September 1995, almost a year ahead of the EU directive date for implementation, the UK had implemented more stringent controls on vehicle exhaust emissions than those proposed by the EU. As cars make significant contributions to these pollutants, transport policy will always have to be considered in any plans to reduce the environmental impact that such activities make in the UK. According to the DTI’s predictions26-see Table 11 and Fig. 17-the transport sector’s energy demand is expected to grow by - 1.75( f 0.45)% year-’ for the period 1990 to 2020. Along with greater car ownership, anticipated significant increased air travel is the other contributory factor behind the predicted increases in the transport sector’s energy demand.

British transport-sector

UBV CMV LBV

1990

TABLE 11 energy-demands

(in Mtoe year-‘)

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

52.7 52.7 52.7

59.0 56.8 54.7

65.8 61.2 57.0

73.3 66.8 60.5

83.2 74.5 66.0

94.5 83.5 72.6

1995

2005

2010

2015

YEAR

Fig. 17. Transport-sector

annual energy-consumption

for the UK.

2020

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201

The congested British road network The UK will face frequent gridlocks within the next decade unless the Government invests heavily in the better management of traffic. Even if zero pollution vehicles were in use, there would still be accident problems arising from vehicle congestion in cities. The Automobile Association claims that the UK is now bottom of the European league for road infrastructure investment, while the British Road Federation warns of rapidly rising motoring costs and the prospect of a package of extreme measures to force cars off increasingly congested roads. Such procedures might include: ?? ?? ??

massive increases in vehicle fuel prices; the introduction of road tolls; restricting access to or from certain motorway junctions, such as with the M25 around London.

Fears for the inadequacy of the British road network are so great that the Automobile Association has started a campaign to get more of the huge tax taken by the Inland Review from motorists spent on improving roads. The organisation says that the Treasury takes &7.50 on every &lo worth of petrol bought-yet only &2 of this goes back into road maintenance and construction. It is alleged that more than a third of the national motorway network will need major renewal in less than 4 years, at a time when there are plans for hardly any such road schemes. The result is that motorists are abandoning clogged motorways for arteries through towns and villages that the main roads were originally designed to bypass. Worse still, local authorities are also starved of cash for vital road repairs. Visual defects on roads, such as cracks and potholes, have increased by more than 40%, while areas needing structural maintenance have increased by nearly 115% in the past 10 years. Local authority budgets are far too low and do not account for demographic growth, inflation and increased vehicle weights and numbers. The UK now sits at the bottom of the European league table for transport investment. How different from mainland Europe, where our competitors generally enjoy far better roads and higher standards of public transport. British travellers are forced to accept many roads, trains and buses that are sinking towards Third World standards. Transport policy has to balance the need for new and better roads against protecting the environment and sensible car use. It is now time for taxes paid by drivers over and above general taxation to be used to improve the national transport infrastructure. However, just loading extra tax onto petrol as a

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penalty is both unfair and inefficient. Car use is regarded now as an essential in the daily life of most people and to tax it as though it was a luxury in order to justify expenditure cuts is clearly unacceptable. People are prepared to pay a high price for personal mobility, but simply taxing the car off the road would hurt families in rural areas and companies that need to keep sales representatives on the road. Nottingham City Council is aiming to cut dramatically car use by staff via a new green commuting plan. The Council’s relocation package is being revamped to encourage recruits to live in the city. New staff will receive more cash for relocating, if they move to an area near well served public transport. The Council plans to reduce car commuting by staff by one-third under a scheme launched in April 1996. Managers have been asked to review car allowances to make sure recruits are only offered cars when they are essential for the job. Managers are also examining the selection criteria for new posts. In future, only jobs which actually involve driving will include an ability to drive among the selection criteria. The Council intends to use the money saved to offer subsidised travel cards for public transport to other employees. Congestion costs British businesses billions of pounds sterling each year. City centres are abandoned for soulless out-of-town shopping and business parks (car parking in out-of-town supermarkets should be highly taxed so leading to the provision of funds for improving the environments within towns and cities). The choices available to the non-car-owning members of the population are becoming reduced. It is not traffic that is a city’s life blood, it is the ability to move people (and not just car users) and goods around easily and effectively. Cities need lungs and the space to undertake the activities that are the very reason for their existence. Continuing increases in car traffic will both clog the arteries and stop them breathing. Healthy cities, with a prospering economy and a good quality of life, cannot be achieved by letting car traffic rule. The Government must implement policies to integrate all modes of transport to ensure maximum efficiency and reduce the damage to our health and environment. In recent years the choice of road rather than rail has been made more attractive by the relative fall in motoring costs, attributed mainly to lower bills incurred for servicing and car repairs during the lifetime of the average vehicle-see also Table 12. Many journeys are more difficult to accomplish by rail. For example, the 15 mile run from Stevenage to Luton can be made for 548 return (at 1996 prices) in a minicab. But a rail user would have to take a train southwards from Stevenage to King’s Cross and then catch another north to Luton-a journey which takes half-an-hour longer and the return fare

Integrated policies for energy and the environment

Comparison

TABLE 12 of the costs of road and rail journeys

Journey* Fort William to Aviemore York to Canterbury Manchester to Birmingham Bristol to Bedford Portsmouth to London Hastings to London *Rail price quoted two people.

203

in the UK for 1995

Train average time taken (and cost)

Taxi average time taken (and cost)

7h 4 h 30 1 h 45 3h 1 h 20 1 h 30

2h 6h 1 h 30 min 2h 2h I h 15 min

min min min min

are for 2nd class return

E116.00 E248.00 L66.00 E92.00 E70.20 E62.80

peaks for two people:

E67.50 E213.00 &65.00 585.00 &70.00 650.00

the taxi cost is also for

is El7 more at peak times than for the minicab. It may be that British Rail has adopted the wrong strategy to try to persuade people to use the railway network. During peak times, when British Rail has a captive market, the railways then should be dropping their fares-instead they try to dampen demand by charging relatively high unit prices at these times. The Government has proposed easing the congestion on roads in and around London by widening the M25 motorway. However, it is unlikely, at present, that the foreseeable amounts of road building will reduce road congestion significantly, because road use is a supply-led market. The more roads there are, the more people will use them, all other factors remaining identical. Presently in the UK, 94% of all passenger-kilometres, as well as 89% of inland freight-kilometres, are undertaken by road. The British Road Federation predicts that, by AD 2000, there will be 23.2-24.8 million cars licensed in the UK, thereby raising some &34x lo9 (i.e. if the VAT on vehicles and fuel sales are included) for the Treasury. (The Government is committed to increasing fuel duties by at least 5% per annum above the annual level of inflation.) To bring congestion back to 1950 levels, when each car could luxuriate in 0.15 km on average of road as opposed to 0.018 km of road in 1990-would require an extra 2.9x lo6 km of carriageway to be built, i.e. a road surface area which is -85% the size of Wales! The answer is surely to improve and manage better the existing road network, but not to build even more roads. According to a recent RAC/MORI poll, introducing more motorways was rated only the fifth most attractive solution for easing road congestion. Of the respondents, 88% specified heavy investments in better public transport, 81% said that motorists should be encouraged to share cars and 71% thought that cars should be banned from city centres. There are already more than 24 million vehicles on the UK’s roads, more than 90% of which are private cars. The total number of vehicles could

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double in the next 25 years, 28 although our roads are already very heavily used and congested. The current rate of increase in the number of motor cars in the UK is - 3.9% per annum. Building more roads will only add to the dependence of the UK’s economic infrastructure on car travel. Politicians are aware of the problem of traffic growth (if only because of the required expenditure for road building programmes), but most emphasise the role of ‘the freedom of individual choice’ as a major problem in combatting it. Thus determined political leadership is need to persuade the electorate to reduce significantly their car use. For this to happen, it will be necessary to provide attractive alternatives to individual car use, for example, by improving public transport or reducing the need to travel (through the greater use of information technology as well as by improving the work opportunities, facilities and environments within local communities). Future constraints on the energy policy maker posed by the transport sector, seem to hinge around one fundamental question: will the depletion of oil reserves force the UK to break with its car-using habit and transfer to public transport (e.g. railways and buses) or can a commercially viable alternative power source for the car be developed? Society pays heavy penalties for the use of the motor car+ongestion, road accidents, noise, fumes, human health problems, damage to landscapes, growing drab suburbs, car crime-and yet, we seem addicted to the convenience and freedom, albeit decreasing, made possible by its use. The European Commission has recently produced a position paper29 setting out ideas to improve Europe’s transportation network. This coincided with the launch of a campaign to promote a ‘citizens network’30 of interlinked services. The goal must be the achievement of networks of public passenger systems, which fit together (e.g. with respect to timetables) so that passengers can change physically easily, without long delays, from train to bus or tram to pedal bicycle and vice versa. Long distance and local transport networks should interconnect (in time and location) more easily for the passengers. This should enable those people with cars to reserve them for journeys at a significantly higher cost than by public transport but where flexibility and independence of movement are highly important. Between 1970 and 1995, passenger transport in the now EU’s 15 member states grew at - 3.2% year-‘. During this period, the average distance travelled each day by a European citizen increased from 16.5 km to - 32 km. Average vehicle speeds have however fallen by - 10% during the last 20 years in major EU cities. This slowdown is considered to be related to the fact that 75% of all present journeys are made by car and the resulting congestion on the roads. Since 1970, car ownership in the EU

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205

has increased from 232 to 435 cars per 1000 persons; yet still 40% of European households do not own a car. Launching the citizens’ network campaign, the present EU Transport Commissioner Neil Kinnock said, ‘The car has given us unimagined freedom to travel, but increased road traffic is simultaneously putting a huge strain on the transport system in terms of pollution, accidents and congestion. Greater use of public transport can ease some of those strains’. According to Commissioner Kinnock, bigger juggernauts and higher road taxes are the answer to the traffic congestion that is costing the UK -&30x lo9 year-‘. Increasing the maximum lorry size would lead to fewer journeys, and raising road tax would encourage more people to use public transport. According to Mr Kinnock, ‘Increased size is better than a congested infrastructure and is preferable to the misery of incessant traffic to those who live beside lorry routes’ or the main transport arteries of cities. There needs to be a fairer and more accurate pricing of road use to encourage a shift to the use of public transport. Even though motorists pay a lot, there remains a real deficit between what road users contribute and what they cost society, e.g. through increased pollution. Whether transport in the future continues to be achieved via the car (e.g. battery or hydrogen powered), or whether a large-scale move to public transport (e.g. using electrified trams and trains) is made, the result will almost certainly be a large increase in electricity consumption by the transport sector. The efficiencies9 of both internal-combustion and electric (battery-driven) vehicles are in the region of 15%, i.e. comparing the useful work at the wheels with the primary energy input. In the case of electrical propulsion, much depends on the efficiencies of the power station generation and electricity distribution processes and how quickly they can be improved. Battery vehicles are, however, likely to be disadvantaged for still some time because of already proven internalcombustion technology-a considerable reduction in fuel consumption being likely to be achieved with conventional internal-combustion engines by 2005. According to a UK study by Porter and Fitchie in 1977,9 comparing the total energy requirements in 2025, battery cars are not likely to offer advantages in energy saving over internal-combustion engines, despite their higher cost and lower speeds-see Fig. 18. Nevertheless their in-town use will increase because they will be virtually pollution-free there. The 1995 budget and road investment in the UK

The Government’s wise 1995 budget has been regarded as unwelcome by many of the UK’s road users. In the revised road programme:

206

Fig. 18. Energy requirements

per annum for cars and light vehicles in the UK for 2025, as predicted in 1977.

35 schemes (total value E1314.6~10~) are listed as under construction. Nine schemes (total value E613.2 x 106) are listed for starting in 1995/ 1996 or 1996/1997. 37 schemes (total value &1105x 106) are listed to be DBFO by the end of 1997/1998. 114 schemes (total value &4212x 106) are listed as the main programme, but 42 of these (value El125 x 106) are marked as ‘schemes likely to be put on hold’. 11 schemes (total vaue &2231x 106) are listed as ‘to be reviewed as potential smaller-scale improvements’. Eight schemes (value not given) are reduced in scale and transferred to the network enhancement programme. 104 schemes (value not given) are in the longer-term programme. Many of these are motorway widening projects. Most schemes in this category are effectively withdrawn from the programme by this action. 77 schemes (value not given) are withdrawn from the programme. Many of these had previously been in the longer-term category. The Government has therefore gone, in less than 2 years, from nearly 500 schemes estimated to cost in excess of &20x lo9 to a much reduced future road programme of about 150 schemes with a value of about &6x 109. The Government has announced that further schemes will be DBFO in 1997/1998.

Integrated policies for energy and the environment

207

The 1995 Budget has set spending levels for the 3 year period 1996/1997 to 1998/1999. For the first 2 years, these revise spending plans that had been announced in earlier budgets. The new spending levels for national roads in England and Wales will be f. 1640 x 106, f 1570 x 1O6and El560 x 1O6for 1996/ 1997,1997/ 1998 and 1998/ 1999, respectively. These reductions represent a reduction of &300m on the original plan for 1996/1997 announced in the 1993 budget. It is anticipated that maintenance expenditure will be kept at about &670x lo6 per annum (-&500x lo6 for structural repairs plus &170x lo6 for routine maintenance). A further &60x lo6 is likely to be kept by the Department of Transport for diverse purposes such as road safety education and the funding of the Woolwich ferry. This will leave - &900x lo6 per annum available for expenditure on road improvements. The Department of Transport is seeking to replace reductions in the public-expenditure review with private finance. The Secretary of State announced that under the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) almost &2x lo9 of private finance will be invested in our national road programme. The British Road Federation welcomes the use of private finance for road improvements, but has two reservations. (i) The Government’s original intention was to seek private finance to supplement existing levels of public finance. It is clear that the Government now sees private finance as an eventual replacement for already lost public finance. (ii) Although the DBFO schemes will be funded by private finance, the concessionaires will be reimbursed by the Government over a lengthy period after the road is completed. These payments will be made from the DOT’s road improvement budget and consequently, although initially financed privately, they will, in practice, be paid for with public money. A realistic roads policy for the UK

In the UK, there are over 225 000 miles of roads, of which 14% are motorways or main roadways. This road network is a major asset, which economists have estimated would cost &75x lo9 to build from scratch. The National Road Maintenance Condition Survey of 1994 suggested that more than 8000 miles of major road will require structural repair within the next 4 years. The demand for road maintenance has been growing. Between 1984 and 1994 motor vehicle annual traffic grew from 303 x lo9 vehicle-kilometres to 424x lo9 vehicle-kilometres, i.e. an overall increase of almost 40%. In contrast to this increase in traffic, annual expenditure on road maintenance remained approximately constant in real terms. According to the British Road Federation, road maintenance work, together with other road openings by the utilities, need to be properly coordinated. This is not happening at present and despite what Govern-

208

R. M. Mackay, S. D. Probert

ment Ministers claim, the New Roads and Streetworks Act of 1991 does not ensure coordination. There is also a need to carry out maintenace work with the minimum delay to road users. At present, there is no incentive for statutory undertakers to minimise delays and an appropriate system of fines should be introduced. A strategy to manage our roads better is, therefore, essential. Much congestion is a result of failures in traffic lights and incidents such as accidents and unpredictable events. The speedier recognition and resolution of such incidents and other problems must, therefore, be a high priority. It has been estimated that poor or ambiguous road signs in London alone cost drivers &37x lo6 in lost time. The London Resigning Project aims to resolve this, but will only apply to the Primary Route network (-700 miles)--the responsibility for action on local roads will remain with local authorities. Better signing could help throughout the UK. A good example of the new technology approaches include the introduction of a pilot scheme for a variable speed limits on the M25. This is already successful in helping traffic flows and should be extended to other chronically congested motorways. Ramp metering, whereby access controls at motorway junctions operate during times of peak congestion, has been used on the M6 through Birmingham and could probably be used more widely. Systems detecting hazardous conditions and helping indicate alternative route choice are also worth investigating. Over 600 communities await for long-promised bypasses of which 100 are trunk-road schemes. During the past 2 years (1994-1996), 300 schemes have had their start dates put back and a further 59 withdrawn from the programme. Bypasses in general are: (1) Better for quality of life-the construction of a bypass provides the community, at least initially, with less through traffic, greater safety, and improved amenity. (2) Better for the environment-bypassed towns experience significant environmental benefits. The resulting reduction in the number of heavy goods vehicles passing through towns leads to reduced noise disturbances and improved safety, particularly for pedestrians, and less damage to buildings. (3) Better for Businesses-business communities are likely to gain from bypasses in terms of more predictable times of arrival and reduced journey times and costs. For the individual, bypasses usually vastly reduce the journey-to-and-from-work time. The European market represents a major opportunity for British business, but in several aspects our infrastructure has not adapted to it. Every region of the UK has ports where in many cases access needs to be

Integrated policies for energy and the environment

209

improved. The Channel Tunnel is particularly important, but the highspeed rail link needs to go beyond London. High priority should be given to transport infrastructure improvements that enhance our export drive and help with British competitiveness in European markets. With few exceptions, we do not need to open up new routes for road travel in the UK. But, whilst the length of the core network (i.e. motorways and trunk roads) need not be extended, its quality does need to be improved. There are many examples of mixed standard roads, where some sections are narrow single carriageways and others are dual carriageways. Such roads are particularly dangerous and their improvement should be priority. Many small-scale enhancements should be undertaken to deal with black spots thereby benefitting the whole route. Although motorways represent only 1% of our total road network, they carry - 15% of all traffic and 30% of commercial traffic. The Government has received political criticism over a few big schemes for road widening beyond dual four lanes (i.e. on the M25, M62 and M4). Motorway widening is alleged to be not the solution to the problems on our motorways and it may be inappropriate for dealing with peak-hour congestion. Local authorities are responsible for - 95% of the British road network: their roads carry two-thirds of all traffic. Unfortunately, the resources available to local authorities have not kept pace with the demands placed on their networks. Funding for local transport capital projects is supported by the transport supplementary grant (TSG) and credit approvals. The TSG has fallen from &431x lo6 in 1993/1994 to &236x IO6 in 1995/ 1996. This is the lowest award since 1990/1991 when the TSG only covered major and minor road schemes on routes deemed to be of more than local importance. This represents a real reduction of - 50%. For the 1995/1996 financial year, local authorities submitted bids for &2.3x lo9 of expenditure to improve their road and public transport systems. They received permissions to spend &960x 106, i.e. only 40% of what they requested. More than 60% of the value of the bids was for improving the road network, either for new schemes or major maintenace projects. Local authorites were able to fund only 24 major road schemes in 1995/ 1996. This should be compared with 31 in 1994/1995 and 41 in 1993/1994. In 1996/1997, the figure will fall to just five schemes. The British Road Federation estimates that there are at least another 500 local bypass schemes awaiting funds. Local authorities, therefore, need additional resources to improve their transport systems. The UK has a relatively good road-safety record, but there is still room for improvement. Driver error still remains the primary cause of road accidents. A significant factor in accident reduction is road layout and

210

R. M. Mackay, S. D. Probert

road quality-it is not by chance that motorways are our safest type of road. Equally, skid-resistant surfaces, proper drainage of surface water and improved lighting on our roads can reduce the number and severity of accidents. It is important that road safety, and more generally safety in transport, are not regarded as add-on policies, but as key aspects of everyday transport development. Prospects for more efficient transportation In conjunction with Coventry University and Cosworth Engineering, Dan Merritt believes his petrol engine could double the distance covered for each gallon of petrol consumed and create a cleaner motoring environment. The Merritt Cycle Spark-Ignition system involves a small second piston in the form of antechamber incorporated within the cylinder head, where critical ‘mixing’ of the fuel and air is carried out before it is forced into the combustion chamber for ignition. The small piston is linked by a common overhead camshaft and runs at half the speed of the conventional larger piston’s parallel four (induction, compression, ignition and exhaust) strokes. By separating the fuel mixture and compressed air until the optimal moment before combustion, the process results in a very efficient burning of the fuel mixture and a marked improvement in mechanical efficiency achieved. The fuel has a faster burn rate and releases energy more rapidly. Lower fuel consumption and cleaner exhaust emissions are immensely important, but the fact that conventional engineering could be applied in producing the Merritt engine dispels anxieties about the necessity for exotic materials and technology which require prolonged proving routines. An average small car, moving at 30 mpg over 10000 miles, expels -3.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide. Theoretical estimates predict fuel savings for the Merritt system varying from 30 to 60% of the fuel used by conventional petrol cars, which could achieve a 70 mpg average during stop-start urban use. British researchers at Keele University are also currently building a novel engine. It will be able to achieve 1000 miles per gallon and power a small vehicle weighing less than 100 kg. An engine has been designed in which hundreds of ceramic fuel rods are injected with a mixture of petrol and water vapour heated to 900°C. The inner and outer layers of the rods contain electrodes-a cathode on the outside and an anode on the inside. When air inside the engine is pumped over the outside edge of a rod, it is given a negative electric charge, forcing it to be attracted to the anode inside the rod. This is possible because the ceramic rods feature zirconium oxide molecules that allow ionised oxygen particles to pass through them.

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211

These charged oxygen particles react with the high-temperature petroland-water vapour and release electronic charges which in turn create a potential difference, and thence a supply of electricity to drive the electric motor. However, the 50x 50x 30 cm unit is not yet powerful enough to drive a conventional car and so, at this juncture, would be best used for recharging an electric car’s batteries. The Keele engine means an electric car can now have a limitless range because its batteries can be continually topped up. The test day venue (-July 1997) is expected to be Silverstone. The novel engine could be developed to power a conventional car by the turn of the century. Engineers at Newcastle University have developed an innovative powerstorage device that could lead to a new kind of hybrid petrol driven electric car. Such a vehicle would reduce the UK’s petrol consumption by one-fifth and be able to travel much further between recharges than conventional electric cars. The stored energy could be called on to propel an electric vehicle at times when it requires maximum power. The Newcastle design, features a rotating steel disk, inside a vacuum chamber, that generates and stores electricity as it spins. The device receives power as the vehicle brakes by absorbing kinetic energy that would otherwise be lost as heat. The energy is then stored by the fly-wheel device for later use. The power storage device differs from conventional designs because it is able to power an electric motor directly by storing energy like a battery but without chemicals, rather than wasting energy by turning a driveshaft. The researchers estimate it would bring an efficiency rise of -3O%, so appropriately increasing the range of electric vehicles, which are restricted by the need for regular recharging. Presently -60% of the country’s petrol is consumed during stop/start urban driving. The power storage flywheel is expected to greatly improve upon this situation. The new flywheel would also have beneficial repercussions for the environment as well as help the balance-of-payments deficit. A flying car being developed by US engineers is promised to transform the efficiency of petrol and electric-powered vehicles. The Skycar, a flying vehicle capable of speeds of up to 400 mph, has required the development of a highly efficient engine to provide the power for it to become airborne. The new engine is claimed to be so powerful and environmentally friendly that it may quickly overtake existing electric rivals. The Skycar is based on the Wankel rotary engine invented in 1954. The makers believe it is capable of delivering more than 100 miles per gallon and 160 bhp, namely the same power as the engine of a Porsche 924 sports car. Its high efficiency is made possible, claims Paul Moller of Moller International, an aerospace research company in California, by the creation of a ‘composite coating’ applied to the chamber and the triangular rotary arm that

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conveys the fuel-and-air mix from the compression and ignition stages to the exhaust outlet. The coating doesn’t wear significantly and doesn’t need cooling. Also there is no need to pump oil around, which in current engines can take up 15% of the total power produced. The flying car is scheduled to be approved by America’s Federal Aviation Authority in 1997 and to be available commercially by N 1998. It will be supplied in two-seat and four-seat models and have a top speed of 390 mph, a 30000 ft ceiling and a range of 900 miles. There is little doubt that such radical new thinking is needed. For instance, it is likely that ceramic engines, with their lower rates of heat loss through the casing and higher temperatures in the combustion chamber, will eventually become commonplace. The electrical potential for transportation A wholesale shift to the use of electric vehicles would require a greater output from the electric power generating stations, but a major problem remains in the batteries. Intensive research has so far failed to produce an affordable lightweight battery that can store more than a small fraction of the energy contained in a litre of petrol. All the electric vehicles currently available use banks of tried and tested lead-acid batteries, which are much the same as those used in today’s cars to drive starter motors. A battery breakthrough may come, but in the meantime, the answer is most likely to be a hybrid system. The motor industry’s concept cars, intended to demonstrate future technology, include a combustion engine run in conjunction with an electric drive. The petrol, diesel, or gas-turbine engine can be arranged to charge the batteries in order to extend the electric range, or drive the car directly, or both. The Renault Next has a 750 cc petrol engine driving the front wheels and electric motors driving the car’s rear wheels. In the USA, Chrysler has proposed Intrepid ESX as a four-door saloon for the millennium with a 1.8 1 diesel engine at the back providing the electric current for motors concealed within the rear wheels. Ford’s Synergy 2010 looks even further ahead and anticipates using a flywheel to store energy rather than a battery. The car for the long-term future will probably be electric, but still will be suitable only for relatively short journeys. The all-purpose vehicle of the medium future will probably incorporate a hybrid power unit; it will not be cheap because the hybrid system has two engines and everything that goes with each of them. Electric buses will soon be going on trial in London; it is planned to use new technology to counter the problem of running out of battery power. A leading British power company is assessing an innovative system that

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can recharge batteries on buses in just 15 min. The system uses pylons carrying overhead electric cables that pass a DC current to the bus’s batteries through an extendable arm positioned on its roof. It is the same method used by electric trains, and reminiscent of the trams and trolleybuses that were common in the UK in the 1950s. The difference is that the pylons are required only at the ends of the bus routes. When not charging, the pylons would be turned through 180”, hanging over the pavement, so they would not impede passing tall traffic. The advantage of this scheme is that it avoids both the high capital cost and planning consent required for trams and other electric mass transit systems. The drawback with electric buses, at present, is that they have a daily working life of only a couple of hours-they then need to return to the garage and be charged for several hours, usually overnight. The pylon system will enable an electric bus to do anything a diesel bus can because it only needs a 15 min recharge at the end of each journey. US engineers at Lockheed Idaho Technologies are testing a highspeed form of transport that can move thousands of people directly to their destination at low cost. The CyberTran promises to (i) eliminate the gridlock that intermittently paralyses many American cities, and (ii) reduce the air pollution caused by cars. The CyberTran solution is a hybrid-a cross between the modern light railways, like those that run in London’s Docklands, and the French TGV supertrains. The key to passenger satisfaction is that every journey will be nonstop. The stations will be sited just off the main line so that through vehicles can pass by unimpeded. The CyberTrans wait at the stations in a series of bays. Passengers indicate their destinations when they buy their ticket and the central computer directs them to the right vehicle bay to board a CyberTran going directly to their chosen destination. The CyberTran system comprises hundreds of small vehicles, each 38 ft long and weighing less than 10000 lb, operating on elevated tracks and under computer control. The interiors of the vehicles can be changed, so they can seat 32 people on bench seats for standard-class travel or as few as six people for luxury class. The vehicles are powered by two electric motors providing all-wheel drive and they can draw power from a third rail. They are designed to operate at speeds from 30 to 150 mph and have already completed several safety runs. Work is about to start on the first 30 mile network to link four urban areas in Idaho. Transportation

via canals

Inland waterways were once the main mode of freight transportation within the UK. However, as a consequence of improved rail and road

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networks, waterway annual traffic fell dramatically,31 from a peak of -42x lo6 tonnes in 1898 to 5x lo6 tonnes in 1991; the main reason being its relative slowness. In 1992, the British Waterways Board controlled 3.2x lo3 km of waterways, with only -620 km being maintained as commercial means of transport. An innovative view of Britian’s canal and navigable river system is now needed-such as has already happened within Europe (e.g. Germany’s Rhine-Main-Danube waterway link). The more widespread use of a British inland waterway transportation network would lessen road traffic as well as reduce: transportation costs, because less power is needed per unit weight of freight transported; 0 air pollution. ??

The transference of freight conveyancing from land vehicles to barges would lead to fewer traffic accidents occurring. In 1991, 44% of the total tonnage hauled on British inland waterways travelled upon the rivers Thames and Medway, with 21% and 19% travelling via the river Mersey and Manchester Ship Canal, and the Humber river and its tributaries, respectively. The main types of substances carried were aggregates, cement, coal, oil and refuse. In northwest England, orimulsion fuel is transported from Liverpool to the Ince power station via the Manchester Ship Canal. Waterways deserve to be allowed to play an enhanced part within the UK’s 2050 transportation system, as future sustainable transportation policy will probably discourage the further growth of road transportation of freight. Such waterway transportation is ideally suited to this task, as it is the most energy efficient form available-a factor which will become increasingly important during the next century, as fossil fuels become relatively scarce and, hence, more expensive. In order to achieve the goal of a more sustainable transportation system, a new improved waterway network will be of prime importance in the development of Britain’s inland transport system. Waterway links between centres of population and industry must be strengthened in order to create an integrated solution to our growing freight transportation requirement. Such existing waterway links, connecting cities like Birmingham, Gloucester, York, Leeds and Bradford, should be deepened and widened in order to realise viable economies of scale. One example of the potential use which could be made of an improved waterway network would be that for waste disposal. Refuse would be taken by barge, from a large city, such as Birmingham, and transported via barges, to a waste disposal centre, at or near to say

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Gloucester. Here an aerobic digester plant could process the waste. It could also handle refuse from the larger towns and cities which had access to the waterway system, such as Kidder-minister, Stourport, Worcester and Bristol, which lie alongside the Staffordshire and Worcestershire canal and/or the river Severn, and coastal cities like Cardiff and Swansea. The waste disposal plant, producing soil conditioners via composting and methane gas as by-products, would be able to generate useful heat and power which could then be used by local inhabitants. The barges would use methane as their fuel and so the whole operation could become energy self-sufficient. Muscle power for energy, environmental and human health benefits

In 1949, cyclists accounted for - 37% of all road traffic in the UK; in 1996 they constituted a mere 1%. The reason is obvious-many more people now travel by car, making cycling not only less pleasant but more dangerous. However, from 1994 to 1995, the number of people cycling to work in the UK increased by more than 5% from 718 000 to 823 000. During the same period there was a slight increase in annual on-road pedal-cycle traffic, namely from 4.4x lo9 to 4.5 x lo9 km. The number of fatal road accidents involving cyclists has dropped 3 1% between 1980 and 1990 and then every year until 1995. About 38% of households in the UK now own a bicycle. Measures need to be taken to reduce motor vehicle speeds in urban areas: approximately two-thirds of all recorded road accidents occur there. Around 95% of pedestrian and 90% of pedal-cycle casualties result from urban traffic accidents. The critical factor is the speed of motor vehicles, because a cyclist or pedestrian hit. by a vehicle travelling at more than 30 mph is likely to sustain severe injuries, whereas at speeds under 10 mph casualties are likely to be relatively slight. For this reason, effective measures to reduce the speeds of motor vehicles in built-up areas are essential for protecting the more vulnerable road users, namely cyclists and pedestrians. These means include rigorous police enforcement of existing speed limits and physical changes to road design and layout to slow down motor vehicles in urban areas. Traffic calming measures include road humps and speed restrictions, road narrowing, kerb extensions and mini-roundabouts. Careful consideration should be given to the needs of pedal cyclists when designing these features, for example by providing alternatives to physical obstacles (such as ramps and humps) in the roads. Pedal-cycle networks should be introduced by local authorities to provide safer conditions in urban areas. These facilities may include exclusive pathways such as cycle tracks, shared cycle and pedestrian

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paths, cycle lanes on all-traffic roads including contraflow cycle lanes in one-way (for motorised traffic) streets and shared bus and cycle lanes. Also modifications to existing roads, such as the inclusion of contraflow cycle lanes and cycle exemptions to road closures, should be considered. The interests of pedal cyclists should be given a high priority at every stage of the planning process for roads and transport routes. The Department of Transport’s Regional Cycling Officers need to be fully involved in all trunk-road planning activities, so that the requirements of pedal cyclists are fully considered. In general, cycling needs to be given a higher profile by Government, more staff should be employed at the Department of Transport to produce improved practical guidance for planners and to provide more effective monitoring of accidents involving cyclists. Pedal cyclists should also be made more aware of their responsibilities as road users and of their obligations under the laws of the land. Cycling should be considered as a serious means of transport and, as such, pedal cyclists, like other road users, should be versed in the Highway Code and other statutory traffic requirements. Publicity and education campaigns should be developed to remind cyclists of their responsibilities and the need to comply with the law and the common-sense measures that can be taken to make cycling safer. The Highway Code has been developed to minimise the risks of traffic casualties by all forms of road users; cyclists must comply with the law in an endeavour to protect pedestrians and themselves. A road-worthiness test for pedal cyclists (as well as roller skaters) using public roads needs to be implemented. Local authorities should encourage the greater use of human muscle power for transportation in all towns. One important deterrent to cycling is the lack of secure, dry public cycle parks at convenient central locations, such as shopping centres, rail and bus stations, and public libraries. If available, their existence should be well publicised. Facilities should include cycle stands for short-term parkers and cycle lockers for longer periods of use. User charges should be as low as is practical: local authorities should subsidise these costs in order to encourage cycling in congested urban areas. The provision of adequate facilities for storing cycles on British trains will become increasingly important. With greater harmonisation occurring among European countries, facilities should be available throughout Europe to facilitate transboundary movements of cyclists by train. Integration of pedal cycling with rail travel is a good way of promoting cycling as a healthy leisure and recreational activity; to this end, cycle routes should emanate from all railway stations.

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Pedal cycling should be promoted for both utilitarian and recreational purposes by local authorities, stressing its strong health, economic and environmental advantages. For commuter cycling, it is important to stress the speed advantages of the bicycle through increasingly congested urban areas. However, changing and shower facilities at work will need to be more commonly available. Bicycles could be provided for staff to travel between buildings on large work sites, e.g. hospital campuses. Leisure routes, passing local features of interest, should be developed and publicised by local authorities and tourist boards via maps and leaflets: these pedal-cycle routes should be well marked by signposts. Particular attention should be paid to ensuring they are safe, e.g. without dangerous junctions. Local authorities should also consider following the example of the ‘bicycle stations’ commonly found in the Netherlands: at each station, a range of cycling facilities, including cycle hire, storage and repair services and route information, exist. The main factor discouraging the use of bikes is the danger and discomfort due to adjacent traffic. Publicity and education campaigns should be developed to raise drivers’ awareness of the more vulnerable road users such as cyclists and pedestrians. Such consideration of other road users forms part of good practice in driving, and so should become more emphasised in structured driving tuition (possibly through the wider dissemination of guidance such as the Friends of the Earth Guide to Cycle Friendly Motoring) and become a specific feature of the driving test itself. Such awareness would include the need for cars to use indicators for the benefit of cyclists as well as other cars and the need to avoid common faults, such as drivers turning left without making due allowance for cyclists continuing along the road, or cars emerging from a side road into the path of oncoming cyclists. Pedal cycling should be promoted actively as an environmentally friendly means of transport and an effective means of improving public health. Regular cycling, like other types of exercise, improves the health of individuals by increasing physical strength and endurance and leads to lower blood pressure and lower weight. On a population basis, regular exercise such as pedal cycling is associated with lower rates of mortality, especially from coronary heart disease. Pedal cycling also has positive advantages in improving or protecting the environment. It is an energy efficient form of transport, which does not have the potential to pollute in the way that motor cycles can do. For these reasons, pedal cycling should be promoted as a desirable means of transport. The Department of Transport and local authorities should favour pedal cyclists and pedestrians in planning transport routes and amenities and considering forms of traffic restraint. Other initiatives should be encouraged locally, in the form

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of special events such as the car-free day in Nottingham and the provision of facilities such as cycle parks. Local authorities should make special efforts in their provision for cyclists. Sustrans, a charity dedicated to sustainable transport, has been quietly building traffic-free paths-more than 300 miles all over the UK during the 15 years since 1980. In 1995, the Millennium Fund awarded g42.5~ lo6 of National Lottery money to Sustrans to help create a further 2000 miles of cycle routes by AD 2000. This will be the start of a planned 5000 mile National Cycle Network, covering the whole of the UK by 2005. The implications for the countryside of the National Cycle Network will be significant. This dedicated national cycle route will become extremely popular. In continental Europe, there are networks of urban pedal cycleways, traffic lights are staggered to allow pedal cyclists to get away first, parks are landscaped to accommodate cyclists and public buildings have safe lock-up racks. The cost of encouraging more pedal cycling is small and anything that reduces the use of cars should qualify not only for millennium money (as was granted for the national cycle network), but Government funding also. Cyclists should not try to reclaim the streets, but in part, accept the limitations that cars impose. However, pedal cyclists should lobby for safe, separate and imaginative provision of cycleways. With all factors considered, per kilometre travelled per MJ of energy employed, on average we travel distances in the ratio 1:15:40 by car, by walking and via a pedal cycle. Thus it appears logical that we should favour the use of the pedal cycle. Transportation

and the privatisation of the railways

By the beginning of the twentieth century, the railways had begun to lose out to trams and roads in popularity; they were hit further by the recession of the 1920s and 1930s. In 1923, there were within the UK over 100 private railway companies, which the Government grouped geographically into, the Great Western Railway (GWR), the London, Midland and Scottish Railway (LMS), the London and North Eastern Railway (LNER) and the Southern Railway (SR). The Labour Party came to power in 1945 and opted for nationalisation of the railways in 1948. In 1963, a Conservative Government, following the outcome of the Beeching Report, implemented savage cuts and about half the British rail network was closed. Figure 19 shows how Government investment in the UK’s railways has varied. The recent annual financial investment cutbacks to make the railways look more profitable, prior to privatisation, are evident.

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FINANCIAL

219

YEAR

Fig. 19. The annual financial investments in the UK’s railways.

Privatisation of the railways has been a major goal of recent Conservative Governments. A White Paper, published in July 1992, led to the formal associated legislation, namely the 1993 Railways Act. In April 1994, British Rail was broken into more than 80 separate organisations. A new body, Railtrack, took over control of the infrastructure (track and signalling), while its three main passenger businesses-the profitable InterCity, Regional Railways and Network SouthEast-were split up into 25 train operating companies. These are now (1996) in the process of being transferred to the private sector as individual ‘franchises’, a system which gives operators the right to take over the running of services on specified lines, but only for predetermined time periods. By 1996, several ‘trade sales’ had already been completed, largely of freight and subsidiary businesses” However, this privatisation has been fraught with difficulties and is currently running behind schedule. With privatisation, the advantages of having a unified, integrated railway may possibly disappear. Benefits such as being able to buy a single ticket that takes you from one end of the country to another and even timetable and telephone enquiry services may deteriorate. Also trains are no longer being held at stations for connecting services of a different company. In addition, if a private company has only a 7 year franchise, it may not have the incentive to invest in new trains with a life of 15-20 years. New electrification will require coordinated investment by Railtrack with the operators and a guaranteed long-term Government subsidy-all of which look unlikely for most routes. The cost of running the railways is

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therefore likely to be higher than in the last 2 years prior to privatisation (see Fig. 19), so resulting in increased commuter costs, and hence fewer fare-paying passengers, with consequently more travelling by road. Thus the prospect of higher fares is a significant concern. There are also worries about the amount of money spent on the sale process. The sell-off has attracted bus and coach companies, such as Stagecoach and National Express, the shipping organisation Sea Containers, and others. Groups of management teams, headed by existing British Rail managers, are also interested in buying parts of the business and making large quick profits. The Government has already sold more than 32 rail businesses, with an aggregate sale price of over &2x 109; further businesses with an aggregate of some &3x lo9 are on the market (in June 1996) and that is without counting Railtrack, which was floated in May 1996. The British Government has given &1.4x lo9 to a private consortium, including Richard Branson’s Virgin Group, to subsidise the building of the Channel Tunnel rail link from London to the coast. The long-delayed 68 mile link is scheduled to be built by 2003, a decade after the French had completed their high-speed line from the tunnel to Paris. The &3x lo9 UK link will allow Eurostar trains to reach their top speed of 186 mph on both sides of the Channel. Currently they cannot exceed 70 mph in England because of the dilapidated state of the line. As well as a cash subsidy, the consortium-namely London and Continental Railways-will be given a 999 year concession to run the loss-making Eurostar service and a portfolio of assets, including St Pancras and Waterloo stations, 120 derelict acres north of St Pancras and land along the route of the link.

Fig. 20. Comparison

of European railway investments.

6 a

2

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PASSENGER-KILOMETRES TRAVELLEO VIA ALL MODES OF TRANSPORT

PASSENGER-KILONETRES TRAVELLED VIA CARS AND VANS x lW%

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TOTAL PASSENCIER -KILOMETRES

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TOTAL PASSENGER-KILOMETRES TUTAL PASSENGER-KILOMETRES

TRAVELLEO VIA BUSES AND COACHES TRAVELLEO VIA ALL NODES OF TRANSPORT

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x’oo%

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The link will reduce the journey time from London to Paris by 40 min to about 2 h 15 min. International stations will be built at Stratford in east London and Ebbsfleet, near the M25 Dartford bridge. A connection from the link to the East and West Coast main lines will allow for direct services from the Midlands, the North and Scotland to Paris and Brussels. The Birmingham to Paris journey will take about 3 h 30 min. Sir Derek Hornby, the chairman of London and Continental Railways, has promised highly competitive prices on Eurostar trains from the 1st April 1996 when the group takes over. The lowest return prices to Paris and Brussels will drop to as little as &40. Rail privatisation has already taken place in Argentina, Chile and New Zealand. It is now underway not only in the UK, but also in Germany, Italy, Japan and the Netherlands and is currently being considered by several developing countries. Sweden is the only other country to have opted to sell off its rail network in the same way as the UK, i.e. by separating track from the running of services, but Sweden has no plans to privatise its track authority. It is clear from Fig. 20 that the UK was near the bottom of the rail investment league in 1993, despite that year being the UK’s peak investment year (see Fig. 19) for rail. British rail investment is pathetically low.

z

4r

x x

YEAR

Fig. 25. Motor-cycle

transport in the UK. Unfortunately motor-cyclists for themselves a poor image within society.

have often created

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YEAR

Fig. 26. Air passenger transport

in the UK. The total distance so travelled during each specified year is indicated.

Figures 21-26 indicate the relative popularities of various modes of passenger transport in the UK. For example, Fig. 21 shows the decline in rail passenger-kilometres travelled compared with other forms of passenger transport; Fig. 22 the rise in popularity of the motor vehicle; Fig. 23 the decline in public transport via buses and coaches; Fig. 24 the pedal bicycle’s steady but low popularity since 1969-it will probably increase because of the growing number of dedicated cycle ways; Fig. 25, the fluctuations in motor cycle popularity; and Fig. 26 the rise in the vogue for air travel within the UK.

ELECTRICITY

GENERATION

The demand for electricity in the UK has grown since 1965-see Fig. 27: it is expected that this trend will continue-see Table 13 and Fig. 28. Figure 27 also shows the rise in electricity net imports from France (i.e. since 1985). The UK could also (eventually) be importing geothermal generated electricity from Iceland via an undersea link. The International Energy Agency estimates3* that the annual amount of electricity generated in the UK will increase to 373.3 TWh by 2005. The