- Email: [email protected]
CAM for developing nations
CAM for Developing Nations Bolek Brunak, Hughes Aircraft Company, El Segundo, California
markets where economic large scale mass or volume production could be applied. Unfortunately, developing countries are increasingly at a disadvantage from the viewpoint of economic growth and industrial diversification because of their small internal markets. There is not enough demand to justify the use of volume production technology. Manufacturers seeking to diversify and to produce new goods usually find that local production is economically not justifiable, because of the prohibitive cost of tooling needed for a given product in relation to the modest production volume. Lack of manufacturing diversification due to modest demand for products, typically means lack of jobs and a widening of the gap which separates the industrialized from the developing countries. While the industrialized nations are already reaching out to conquer space in a world of rising expectations, the less developed countries still seem chained to lack of opportunity, hopeless poverty, even starvation and social unrest, which is increasingly affecting the industrialized countries. If the status quo is maintained, the new countries warn--as they did at the Third World Forum in Mexico City in 1975--that"the poor have the ability to disrupt the life styles of the rich". ~ With the recent oil and strategic mineral crises, heavy borrowing by developing countries, threatening financial collapse, growing international terrorism and increasing danger of irreversible alienation of Third World countries may illustrate such warnings coming true.
Abstract Application of high technology in developing countries with the objective of accelerated industrial growth and diversification is the subject of this paper. The use of numerical control and of flexible CAM systems is envisioned to produce a growing variety of new products in small batches and thereby overcome the bottleneck problem of small markets plaguing developing countries. Products produced in industrialized countries could be duplicated instantaneously at any plant around the globe by the use of computerized data transmission. With such an innovative system, countless new jobs would be generated in developing countries and local demand for affordable new products could be satisfied. For licensors (manufacturers of products) as well as for builders of computerized manufacturing and communication systems, along with related services and products in industrialized countries, this system would create sizable new markets. A feasibility study of a pilot plant in a developing country (Mexico) using such a system is proposed with cooperation of private and government sponsored research. After gaining experience with successful operation of a pilot plant, such a flexible system could be adapted for transfer to other developing countries.
Keywords: Manufacturing System, Technology Transfer, Developing Countries, Third World, Job Creation. So far, abundance and wealth have been created mainly in countries with considerable
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handling shorter production runs caused by variations of what were formerly standard items and of frequently changing models and products, to systems which approach virtually random real-time manufacturing. The pace of CAM development is brisk. New designs and concepts appear with increasing frequency. Besides, computer automated manufacturing processes are proliferating from machining to welding, stamping, forging, painting, cutting, etc. There seems to be no limit to the spread of manufacturing automation, including the use of robots in small shops.
The global need for the creation of new jobs seems overwhelming. It has been estimated by the International Labour Office (ILO) that this quarter century will see the need for more than a billion new jobs in the developing world, where job creating development is proceeding all too slowly. 2 Frustration with the slowness of job creation has lead to an alliance of OPEC and Third World countries demanding massive transfer of technology and threatening industrialized nations with the use of oil as a weapon if their demands are not met. 3 It appears that diversification still holds the key to job creation in developing countries with their quest to narrow the gap which separates them from the industrialized nations. However, only recently developing evidence suggests that diversification of manufacturing and related services could provide the necessary jobs, by taking a system approach to overcoming the problem of small internal markets where there is not enough room for conventional volume production methods.
Systems for Small Shops Of special interest for the prevalently small industries in developing countries should be the attention given to the automation needs of small shops in industrially advanced countries. There is a heightening awareness of the fact that over 75% of all production in the United States, for example, is being produced in small lots, mainly by small and medium-size shops. Less than 25% of all products are mass produced. 4 Since this fact is of national importance, an entirely new approach is emerging to increase the productivity of small shops. The magnitude of this task requires the cooperation of most branches of the manufacturing industry and of government. In the search for generic technology for small shops, the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce, for example, is developing minimachining cells or modules. The idea is to produce modules that are sufficiently standardized and sufficiently inexpensive so they can be used by small shops in many different configurations. According to reports, the intention is to extend unmanned, flexible manufacturing techniques to a wider part mix, short runs, and many different products. 5,6 From Japan, it is reported that Japanese industrialists' production policy is to be able to make many different products in small quantities and to continue with the installation of flexible manufacturing systems at a faster pace. 7
New Directions Possible new directions for economic growth exist that could produce a world economy far more responsive to basic human needs that the one we have today. A variety of new technologies--all of which are relatively nonresource depletive and energy efficient--have emerged in recent years. If judiciously applied in the developing countries, they could bring about a major breakthrough in the fight to relieve the severe poverty suffered by almost one billion human beings. Examples of such new technologies are numerical control (NC) and computer automation. Leaving the age of mass production behind, it is now possible to economically produce in small lot sizes, even one part at a time through the use of NC. More recently, new flexible CAM systems are used to economically produce an increasing variety of products in small batches. This is what is needed in developing countries to overcome the bottleneck of restricted industrialization due to small markets and to diversify local production. There is a growing variety of emerging CAM designs including systems tailored to customer needs. These systems range from relatively simple manufacturing cells to complex, sizable multimachine manufacturing systems and systems for
Potential of CAM The continuing development of CAM systems
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should lead to a global proliferation of such systems since their flexibility enables nearly limitless application, including use by the industrially disadvantaged countries. Such systems should help manufacturing plants serving relatively small segments of the world market to offer new products and greater diversity of models. Using programmable machine tool modules, it is possible to program a product at one location and by tape copies or by new satellite communication systems, duplicate the product at any plant in the world without the need for great numbers of highly skilled operators. The potential advantages of the emerging systems for manufacturing industries in developing countries seem obvious. In addition to producing economically in small lots, such systems will have the flexibility necessary for economic low volume production of an increasing variety of articles under fluctuating market conditions, such as usually exist in developing countries. The computer controlled machining is also relatively free from human interference and error, which results in products of extraordinary uniformity and interchangeability. In developing countries where skilled labor is scarce, this is of special importance. Additional savings in money and time may be realized by obtaining the manufacturing process plan for an already existing product from a licensor (parent manufacturer) in an industrially advanced country instead of making an effort to develop an equivalent product for the local market. With such a system, it is possible to program a product at one location and with the help of advanced telecommunications, duplicate this product nearly instantaneously at any plant around the globe. This means that from the myriad of products produced under NC in the United States or any other industrialized country, an appropriate selection to be reproduced under license would be made in a developing country. A flexible CAM system in a developing country would produce a batch of parts for one product, then switch without delay to m/~king parts for another product, etc. The finished parts would then be assembled into complete products in specialized assembly shops to be marketed later. In developing countries, the implementation of such a system would generate industrialization at levels thus far available only to the industrialized countries, and thereby overcome the limitations of
traditional industrialization approaches. It would enable existing industries to diversify and expand their product lines as well as give birth to new industries. The resulting creation of new jobs will satisfy urgent needs which, in turn, would result in nationally more stable conditions, would curb the flight of professionals and workers, and lead to the gradual elimination of economic backwardness. In addition to increasing the purchasing power of the people, locally produced articles would save the country's badly needed foreign currency, now hardly available for the importation of such goods. This would also make more affordable, import duty free new products available to the local consumer. On an international level, such a system would lead to multiplying new trading opportunities with industrialized countries. For builders of manufacturing systems and of satellite communication systems, and for related products and services, it would create growing new markets. In addition parent manufacturers (licensors) of products to be produced under license in developing countries, would have the opportunity to create new export markets for their products without the large capital outlays that would be required for direct investment in overseas operations, s
Integration Needs Elaborate preparations for production of an article and means for implementing it would be an integral part of such a manufacturing system. The decision of which product to select for production will entail a search for a licensor, market analysis, technical evaluation, negotiations of contracts, gathering of information pertaining to manufacturing processes, equipment and "know-how", materials needed, etc. To accomplish these diverse tasks spread over a wide geographical area in timely, efficient manner, would require the use of new information technology. More recent developments in telecommunications, apparently, would make the above outlined manufacturing system not only possible but practical on a global scale. Computers, communication satellites and an array of new data transmission technologies now make teleconferencing and instant data transactions a reality. The new information systems have the potential of linking manufacturing plants in developing countries with licensors and
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8. 9. 10. 11.
Servicing. Administration. Purchasing and procurement. Sales and distribution. Unlike industrialized countries where the above enumerated jobs are rapidly becoming automated by manufacturing systems, robotics, and computer automation in general, most of these jobs should continue to be performed manually in developing countries so long as low labor rates prevail. The use of costly automation methods would then be economically unattractive. There should be an abundance of such jobs at these low labor rates. However, with an expanding economy and as the general level of income and labor rates increase, these jobs will probably be displaced by the decreasing cost of computer automation. There would also be more jobs generated by suppliers and other firms serving the plant which is producing the new products. Furthermore, there should be a snowballing effect with job creation as rising levels of employment and income lead to an increasing demand for products, which means more jobs. Undoubtedly, there would also be an indirect impact on job generation as a result of the technology transfer, rising educational and skill levels, followed by realization of new opportunities generated by the rapidly advancing technology. Finally, similarities between the proposed system and other successful job creating manufacturing operations may be found in the many existing (assembly) plants established by foreign companies in developing countries such as in the Mexican border zone. In those plants, the noted activities are generating jobs for the local population who also benefit by learning new skills through the transfer of technology. The dexterity of the local worker as well as special privileges for the manufacturer make it possible to produce quality products for export at competitive manufacturing costs. Usually, s u c h manufacturing operations are promoted by governments of developing nations since these operations meet the country's industrialization objectives by providing labor intensive jobs. It is the innovative combination of diversifying, partial, gradual, flexible automation in conjunction with proven, job creating, labor intensive manufacturing processes which seem to make the proposed system attractive for developing countries.
sources of "know-how" in industrialized countries in an effective, affordable manner. Distance would no longer be a disadvantage. Through electronics, a dozen people in widely separated locations would really be working side by side within such an integrated manufacturing and communication system. Product selection would be achieved via teleconferencing; the implementation of production would be accomplished through computerized retrieval of manufacturing process data from data bases; training of manufacturing and maintenance crews would be done by the use of audiovisual means; and flow of manufacturing program data to the computer controlled machine tools and other production equipment, as well as most administrative functions, would be achieved automatically and with a minimum of human interference and error. Traditionally, there was little justification for the use of capital intensive automation in the low labor rate environment of developing countries. Adaptation of the emerging flexible CAM systems, however, would open new horizons for diversification and job creation which otherwise was not achievable. High utilization rates and uptime of a properly tailored system should be obtainable by producing an appreciable variety of products in appropriate quantities.
Job Creation The purpose of the flexible CAM system is to overcome the bottleneck problem of small markets. However, flexible CAM is only part of the total manufacturing systems and, as such, will need the attention of only relatively few highly skilled engineers, technicians and operators. The majority of 9 new jobs will be generated by traditionally more labor intensive manufacturing processes requiring only widely available skills, such as: I. Nonautomatic machining and forming operations. 2. Joining (welding, brazing, bonding, soldering, etc.). 3. Finishing (painting, plating, etc.). 4. Assembly. 5. Quality control and testing. 6. Materials and parts handling and preparation (receiving, shipping, etc.). 7. Maintenance.
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of choice, but one of survival. Growing numbers of small manufacturers are seeking foreign customers for products ranging from toasters to computerized lathes. ~2 Such firms probably would be well served with the described system. There are calls for increasing coproduction or production sharing of modern goods between industrialized and developing countries instead of the advanced nations attempting to just sell (export) these goods to people who have barely enough to exist and who cannot afford to buy them. Large transnational corporations successfully use such production sharing methods as industrial complementation and temporary tool leasing, allocating component production among several countries. There is little doubt that it may be worthwhile for smaller companies to follow such examples. In spite of being plagued by high unemployment and troublesome trade deficits that seem to resist internal solutions, both developing and developed nations are pursuing foreign investment with unprecedented fervor. 13This seems to indicate a favorable climate for implementing production sharing projects as described. In Japan, it is believed that simultaneous promotion of information and industrial technologies, using proper means and methods, will not only greatly promote the industrialization of developing countries but will contribute toward the creation of a new international order, involving advanced countries. 14 There already exists an example of an integrated manufacturing and communication system, using telecommunications and computer automation on an intercontinental scale, including developing countries. It is Ford Motor Company's Computer Engineering Center which is playing a prominent role in Ford's global production plans. ~5
Availability of System Elements The marketing of teleconferencing has begun. There are public visual conferencing services available in Australia, Canada, Great Britain, Japan and the United States. The promises of teleconferencing have found expression in concepts such as the "global village", a vision of a world in which electronic media create a sense of community and commonality among all people of the world, a vision of instant connectedness and of diminished cultural barriers and fighting, and a world where Third World nations share a more equal footing with advanced countries. 9 The cost of satellite communications is decreasing through the introduction of leasing. This point can be an important advantage for developing nations. 10 Furthermore, communication services are being tailored to user's needs, possibly even to the needs of the described system. The use of computers in conjunction with telecommunications is proliferating. Service companies which are supplying computer programming to shops are making extensive use of data transmission techniques via telephone to run NC machine tools. Similar services could be used within the proposed manufacturing system for transmission of manufacturing data to plants in developing countries by use of telephone or affordable satellite communications and ground stations. The cost of computers has decreased to a level where microcomputers are being sold by the thousands. Computers are already used by small businesses and shops for an increasing variety of tasks including computer numerical control (CNC), production and inventory control, and computer communications and networking. At the more exotic end of the application spectrum, computers are used by large machine tool builders for simulations to design and engineer complex, flexible machining systems and help customers with cost justification. 1~It seems reasonable to expect that computer simulation will make it possible to tailor flexible CAM systems to the most diverse and changing market requirements of developing countries.
Concluding Remarks Considering the variety of already existing elements as well as new technology emerging at an increasing rate of development, the time seems ripe for initiating a feasibility study of a pilot flexible CAM system for a developing country. Such a pilot plant could be conceived as a contract machine shop (job shop) operation and as a service organization designed to provide new kinds of manufacturing services to the existing industry. It would produce a variety of parts selected via telecommunications. Its
International Development Trends In the United States, many small firms are just now learning that global trade no longer is a matter
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in the absence of comprehensive reorientation, education and job training plans. The greatest difficulties, perhaps, will arise in fostering awareness, involvement and commitment to prevent whole segments of the population from being 'left out' of the ongoing global transformation, both in industrialized and less developed countries. Nevertheless, because of the overwhelming need for the creation of new jobs and because of the opportunities generated by the emerging technologies, all these obstacles m a y be overcome in time. It is hoped that the advanced nations will be able to realize and share these new opportunities with the developing nations to m u t u a l benefit in a world in need of peaceful coexistence.
C A M system would run on programs leased from parent m a n u f a c t u r e r s in industrially advanced countries. F r o m the pilot plant, the parts or components would be delivered to product specialized assembly shops (which could be either part of the pilot operation, independently existing, or new businesses) where they would be finished, assembled, and marketed. A feasibility study of the pilot plant would give universities, professional organizations, private enterprises and governments an opportunity for cooperation for mutual benefit. As successful experience is gained with the pilot plant operation, plans for expansion could be made and implemented. Similar plants could be established in other developing countries. The Mexican border zone adjacent to southern California's industry centers, for example, seems an advantageous location for such a pilot plant. Mexico is a developing c o u n t r y with a great need for creating new jobs for her people. In the zone bordering the United States, the Mexican government has established special conditions to attract new foreign industries. The short distance between the two areas would minimize the initial problem of travel, and movement of equipment and material. The necessity of integrating complex activities and diverse entities in a novel way and on an international scale will create difficulties. There will be c o m m u n i c a t i o n problems due to language differences, values and perceptions, and due to restrictions of the free flow of information. G o v e r n m e n t regulations and growing restlessness in the Third World countries will create obstacles. A shortage will be felt of professionals needed to solve complex problems which require a broad perspective and a change in the way manufacturing is planned and executed. In industrialized countries, product and job obsolescence due to rapid change, u n e m p l o y m e n t , job displacement, and resistance to " e x p o r t " of jobs will probably continue to be a challenge, especially
References !. J. van der Tak, C. Haub and E. Murphy,"A New Look at the Population Problem",The Futurist, VolumeXIV, No. 2, 1980,p. 42. 2. R. W. Tucker,"The Inequalityof Nations", The Futurist, Volume XII, No. 6, 1979,-p.399. 3. Jean-Jaques Servan-Schreiber, The World Challenge, Simonand Schuster, New York, 1981,p. 13. 4. P. O. Geier,Jr., "Attackingthe ProductivityProblem",Manufacturing Engineering and Management, January 1973,p. 26. 5. StevenAshley,"Unmanned,FlexibleMachiningfor SmallShops", American Metal Market and Metalworking News, Volume89, No. 75, April 20, 1981,pp. 10, 16. 6. Steven Ashley,"AdvancedMachiningSystemfor Small Shops", American Metal Market and Metalworking News, Volume90, No. 40, March I, 1982,pp. II, 13, 16. 7. Mutsuko Mukukami,"Factory Automation Key As Fair Sets Record", American Metal Market and Metalworking News, Volume 90, No. 222, November 15, 1982,pp. I I, 12. 8. "Licensingis the Middle Route", International Commerce, U.S. Department of Commerce,December23, 1968. 9. R. Johansen, J. Vallee and K. Spangler, "Electronic Meetings: Utopian Dreamsand ComplexRealities",The Futurist, October 1978, p. 313. 10. A. D. Wheelon,"'Centuryof the Satellite",Design News, June 9, 1980, p. I 1. I1. J. Thornton, "Use of Computer Simulation is Expanding", American MetalMarket and Metalworking News, Volume88, No. I 1I, June 9, 1980,pp. 10, 16. 12. CynthiaJabs, "Small U.S. ManufacturersLookingAbroad for Sales",American Metal Market and Metalworking News, Volume90, No. 26, February8, 1982,pp. 5, 24. 13. Niles Howard and Henriette Sender, "The World Woos U.S. Business",Dun's Business Month, Volume120,No. 5, November1982, p. 39. 14. YonejiMasuda, The In.formation Society, (in Japanese), Institute for the InformationSociety,Tokyo, 1980, p. 120.Translated by the World FutureSociety,Bethesda,Maryland,1981. 15. A. Wrigley,"ComputerCenter Plays Key Role in Ford Plans", American Metal Market and Metahvorking News, Volume88, No. 37, February25, 1980,p. 13.
Author Biography Bolek Brunak received his Dipl. lng. degree (the equivalent of a Masters in Mechanical Engineering) from the Technical College in Vienna, Austria in 1948. Presently, he is working in the Production Engineering
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Department of the Electro-optical Division of Hughes Aircraft Company i n El Segundo, California. In addition, he is a consulting engineer holding a California registration. Prior to establishing his residency in the U.S. in 1962, Mr. Brunak was a cofounder, partner, and technical director of F A C T O M E T Ltd., a leading national metal manufacturing company in Chile where he was an honorary representative of-the Viennese Trade Fair, and a member of the Board of the Austrian Society of Chile.
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markets where economic large scale mass or volume production could be applied. Unfortunately, developing countries are increasingly at a disadvantage from the viewpoint of economic growth and industrial diversification because of their small internal markets. There is not enough demand to justify the use of volume production technology. Manufacturers seeking to diversify and to produce new goods usually find that local production is economically not justifiable, because of the prohibitive cost of tooling needed for a given product in relation to the modest production volume. Lack of manufacturing diversification due to modest demand for products, typically means lack of jobs and a widening of the gap which separates the industrialized from the developing countries. While the industrialized nations are already reaching out to conquer space in a world of rising expectations, the less developed countries still seem chained to lack of opportunity, hopeless poverty, even starvation and social unrest, which is increasingly affecting the industrialized countries. If the status quo is maintained, the new countries warn--as they did at the Third World Forum in Mexico City in 1975--that"the poor have the ability to disrupt the life styles of the rich". ~ With the recent oil and strategic mineral crises, heavy borrowing by developing countries, threatening financial collapse, growing international terrorism and increasing danger of irreversible alienation of Third World countries may illustrate such warnings coming true.
Abstract Application of high technology in developing countries with the objective of accelerated industrial growth and diversification is the subject of this paper. The use of numerical control and of flexible CAM systems is envisioned to produce a growing variety of new products in small batches and thereby overcome the bottleneck problem of small markets plaguing developing countries. Products produced in industrialized countries could be duplicated instantaneously at any plant around the globe by the use of computerized data transmission. With such an innovative system, countless new jobs would be generated in developing countries and local demand for affordable new products could be satisfied. For licensors (manufacturers of products) as well as for builders of computerized manufacturing and communication systems, along with related services and products in industrialized countries, this system would create sizable new markets. A feasibility study of a pilot plant in a developing country (Mexico) using such a system is proposed with cooperation of private and government sponsored research. After gaining experience with successful operation of a pilot plant, such a flexible system could be adapted for transfer to other developing countries.
Keywords: Manufacturing System, Technology Transfer, Developing Countries, Third World, Job Creation. So far, abundance and wealth have been created mainly in countries with considerable
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Journal of Manufacturhlg S)'stems Volume 2, No. I
handling shorter production runs caused by variations of what were formerly standard items and of frequently changing models and products, to systems which approach virtually random real-time manufacturing. The pace of CAM development is brisk. New designs and concepts appear with increasing frequency. Besides, computer automated manufacturing processes are proliferating from machining to welding, stamping, forging, painting, cutting, etc. There seems to be no limit to the spread of manufacturing automation, including the use of robots in small shops.
The global need for the creation of new jobs seems overwhelming. It has been estimated by the International Labour Office (ILO) that this quarter century will see the need for more than a billion new jobs in the developing world, where job creating development is proceeding all too slowly. 2 Frustration with the slowness of job creation has lead to an alliance of OPEC and Third World countries demanding massive transfer of technology and threatening industrialized nations with the use of oil as a weapon if their demands are not met. 3 It appears that diversification still holds the key to job creation in developing countries with their quest to narrow the gap which separates them from the industrialized nations. However, only recently developing evidence suggests that diversification of manufacturing and related services could provide the necessary jobs, by taking a system approach to overcoming the problem of small internal markets where there is not enough room for conventional volume production methods.
Systems for Small Shops Of special interest for the prevalently small industries in developing countries should be the attention given to the automation needs of small shops in industrially advanced countries. There is a heightening awareness of the fact that over 75% of all production in the United States, for example, is being produced in small lots, mainly by small and medium-size shops. Less than 25% of all products are mass produced. 4 Since this fact is of national importance, an entirely new approach is emerging to increase the productivity of small shops. The magnitude of this task requires the cooperation of most branches of the manufacturing industry and of government. In the search for generic technology for small shops, the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce, for example, is developing minimachining cells or modules. The idea is to produce modules that are sufficiently standardized and sufficiently inexpensive so they can be used by small shops in many different configurations. According to reports, the intention is to extend unmanned, flexible manufacturing techniques to a wider part mix, short runs, and many different products. 5,6 From Japan, it is reported that Japanese industrialists' production policy is to be able to make many different products in small quantities and to continue with the installation of flexible manufacturing systems at a faster pace. 7
New Directions Possible new directions for economic growth exist that could produce a world economy far more responsive to basic human needs that the one we have today. A variety of new technologies--all of which are relatively nonresource depletive and energy efficient--have emerged in recent years. If judiciously applied in the developing countries, they could bring about a major breakthrough in the fight to relieve the severe poverty suffered by almost one billion human beings. Examples of such new technologies are numerical control (NC) and computer automation. Leaving the age of mass production behind, it is now possible to economically produce in small lot sizes, even one part at a time through the use of NC. More recently, new flexible CAM systems are used to economically produce an increasing variety of products in small batches. This is what is needed in developing countries to overcome the bottleneck of restricted industrialization due to small markets and to diversify local production. There is a growing variety of emerging CAM designs including systems tailored to customer needs. These systems range from relatively simple manufacturing cells to complex, sizable multimachine manufacturing systems and systems for
Potential of CAM The continuing development of CAM systems
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Journal of 3tanufacturing S)'stems Volume 2, No. !
should lead to a global proliferation of such systems since their flexibility enables nearly limitless application, including use by the industrially disadvantaged countries. Such systems should help manufacturing plants serving relatively small segments of the world market to offer new products and greater diversity of models. Using programmable machine tool modules, it is possible to program a product at one location and by tape copies or by new satellite communication systems, duplicate the product at any plant in the world without the need for great numbers of highly skilled operators. The potential advantages of the emerging systems for manufacturing industries in developing countries seem obvious. In addition to producing economically in small lots, such systems will have the flexibility necessary for economic low volume production of an increasing variety of articles under fluctuating market conditions, such as usually exist in developing countries. The computer controlled machining is also relatively free from human interference and error, which results in products of extraordinary uniformity and interchangeability. In developing countries where skilled labor is scarce, this is of special importance. Additional savings in money and time may be realized by obtaining the manufacturing process plan for an already existing product from a licensor (parent manufacturer) in an industrially advanced country instead of making an effort to develop an equivalent product for the local market. With such a system, it is possible to program a product at one location and with the help of advanced telecommunications, duplicate this product nearly instantaneously at any plant around the globe. This means that from the myriad of products produced under NC in the United States or any other industrialized country, an appropriate selection to be reproduced under license would be made in a developing country. A flexible CAM system in a developing country would produce a batch of parts for one product, then switch without delay to m/~king parts for another product, etc. The finished parts would then be assembled into complete products in specialized assembly shops to be marketed later. In developing countries, the implementation of such a system would generate industrialization at levels thus far available only to the industrialized countries, and thereby overcome the limitations of
traditional industrialization approaches. It would enable existing industries to diversify and expand their product lines as well as give birth to new industries. The resulting creation of new jobs will satisfy urgent needs which, in turn, would result in nationally more stable conditions, would curb the flight of professionals and workers, and lead to the gradual elimination of economic backwardness. In addition to increasing the purchasing power of the people, locally produced articles would save the country's badly needed foreign currency, now hardly available for the importation of such goods. This would also make more affordable, import duty free new products available to the local consumer. On an international level, such a system would lead to multiplying new trading opportunities with industrialized countries. For builders of manufacturing systems and of satellite communication systems, and for related products and services, it would create growing new markets. In addition parent manufacturers (licensors) of products to be produced under license in developing countries, would have the opportunity to create new export markets for their products without the large capital outlays that would be required for direct investment in overseas operations, s
Integration Needs Elaborate preparations for production of an article and means for implementing it would be an integral part of such a manufacturing system. The decision of which product to select for production will entail a search for a licensor, market analysis, technical evaluation, negotiations of contracts, gathering of information pertaining to manufacturing processes, equipment and "know-how", materials needed, etc. To accomplish these diverse tasks spread over a wide geographical area in timely, efficient manner, would require the use of new information technology. More recent developments in telecommunications, apparently, would make the above outlined manufacturing system not only possible but practical on a global scale. Computers, communication satellites and an array of new data transmission technologies now make teleconferencing and instant data transactions a reality. The new information systems have the potential of linking manufacturing plants in developing countries with licensors and
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8. 9. 10. 11.
Servicing. Administration. Purchasing and procurement. Sales and distribution. Unlike industrialized countries where the above enumerated jobs are rapidly becoming automated by manufacturing systems, robotics, and computer automation in general, most of these jobs should continue to be performed manually in developing countries so long as low labor rates prevail. The use of costly automation methods would then be economically unattractive. There should be an abundance of such jobs at these low labor rates. However, with an expanding economy and as the general level of income and labor rates increase, these jobs will probably be displaced by the decreasing cost of computer automation. There would also be more jobs generated by suppliers and other firms serving the plant which is producing the new products. Furthermore, there should be a snowballing effect with job creation as rising levels of employment and income lead to an increasing demand for products, which means more jobs. Undoubtedly, there would also be an indirect impact on job generation as a result of the technology transfer, rising educational and skill levels, followed by realization of new opportunities generated by the rapidly advancing technology. Finally, similarities between the proposed system and other successful job creating manufacturing operations may be found in the many existing (assembly) plants established by foreign companies in developing countries such as in the Mexican border zone. In those plants, the noted activities are generating jobs for the local population who also benefit by learning new skills through the transfer of technology. The dexterity of the local worker as well as special privileges for the manufacturer make it possible to produce quality products for export at competitive manufacturing costs. Usually, s u c h manufacturing operations are promoted by governments of developing nations since these operations meet the country's industrialization objectives by providing labor intensive jobs. It is the innovative combination of diversifying, partial, gradual, flexible automation in conjunction with proven, job creating, labor intensive manufacturing processes which seem to make the proposed system attractive for developing countries.
sources of "know-how" in industrialized countries in an effective, affordable manner. Distance would no longer be a disadvantage. Through electronics, a dozen people in widely separated locations would really be working side by side within such an integrated manufacturing and communication system. Product selection would be achieved via teleconferencing; the implementation of production would be accomplished through computerized retrieval of manufacturing process data from data bases; training of manufacturing and maintenance crews would be done by the use of audiovisual means; and flow of manufacturing program data to the computer controlled machine tools and other production equipment, as well as most administrative functions, would be achieved automatically and with a minimum of human interference and error. Traditionally, there was little justification for the use of capital intensive automation in the low labor rate environment of developing countries. Adaptation of the emerging flexible CAM systems, however, would open new horizons for diversification and job creation which otherwise was not achievable. High utilization rates and uptime of a properly tailored system should be obtainable by producing an appreciable variety of products in appropriate quantities.
Job Creation The purpose of the flexible CAM system is to overcome the bottleneck problem of small markets. However, flexible CAM is only part of the total manufacturing systems and, as such, will need the attention of only relatively few highly skilled engineers, technicians and operators. The majority of 9 new jobs will be generated by traditionally more labor intensive manufacturing processes requiring only widely available skills, such as: I. Nonautomatic machining and forming operations. 2. Joining (welding, brazing, bonding, soldering, etc.). 3. Finishing (painting, plating, etc.). 4. Assembly. 5. Quality control and testing. 6. Materials and parts handling and preparation (receiving, shipping, etc.). 7. Maintenance.
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of choice, but one of survival. Growing numbers of small manufacturers are seeking foreign customers for products ranging from toasters to computerized lathes. ~2 Such firms probably would be well served with the described system. There are calls for increasing coproduction or production sharing of modern goods between industrialized and developing countries instead of the advanced nations attempting to just sell (export) these goods to people who have barely enough to exist and who cannot afford to buy them. Large transnational corporations successfully use such production sharing methods as industrial complementation and temporary tool leasing, allocating component production among several countries. There is little doubt that it may be worthwhile for smaller companies to follow such examples. In spite of being plagued by high unemployment and troublesome trade deficits that seem to resist internal solutions, both developing and developed nations are pursuing foreign investment with unprecedented fervor. 13This seems to indicate a favorable climate for implementing production sharing projects as described. In Japan, it is believed that simultaneous promotion of information and industrial technologies, using proper means and methods, will not only greatly promote the industrialization of developing countries but will contribute toward the creation of a new international order, involving advanced countries. 14 There already exists an example of an integrated manufacturing and communication system, using telecommunications and computer automation on an intercontinental scale, including developing countries. It is Ford Motor Company's Computer Engineering Center which is playing a prominent role in Ford's global production plans. ~5
Availability of System Elements The marketing of teleconferencing has begun. There are public visual conferencing services available in Australia, Canada, Great Britain, Japan and the United States. The promises of teleconferencing have found expression in concepts such as the "global village", a vision of a world in which electronic media create a sense of community and commonality among all people of the world, a vision of instant connectedness and of diminished cultural barriers and fighting, and a world where Third World nations share a more equal footing with advanced countries. 9 The cost of satellite communications is decreasing through the introduction of leasing. This point can be an important advantage for developing nations. 10 Furthermore, communication services are being tailored to user's needs, possibly even to the needs of the described system. The use of computers in conjunction with telecommunications is proliferating. Service companies which are supplying computer programming to shops are making extensive use of data transmission techniques via telephone to run NC machine tools. Similar services could be used within the proposed manufacturing system for transmission of manufacturing data to plants in developing countries by use of telephone or affordable satellite communications and ground stations. The cost of computers has decreased to a level where microcomputers are being sold by the thousands. Computers are already used by small businesses and shops for an increasing variety of tasks including computer numerical control (CNC), production and inventory control, and computer communications and networking. At the more exotic end of the application spectrum, computers are used by large machine tool builders for simulations to design and engineer complex, flexible machining systems and help customers with cost justification. 1~It seems reasonable to expect that computer simulation will make it possible to tailor flexible CAM systems to the most diverse and changing market requirements of developing countries.
Concluding Remarks Considering the variety of already existing elements as well as new technology emerging at an increasing rate of development, the time seems ripe for initiating a feasibility study of a pilot flexible CAM system for a developing country. Such a pilot plant could be conceived as a contract machine shop (job shop) operation and as a service organization designed to provide new kinds of manufacturing services to the existing industry. It would produce a variety of parts selected via telecommunications. Its
International Development Trends In the United States, many small firms are just now learning that global trade no longer is a matter
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in the absence of comprehensive reorientation, education and job training plans. The greatest difficulties, perhaps, will arise in fostering awareness, involvement and commitment to prevent whole segments of the population from being 'left out' of the ongoing global transformation, both in industrialized and less developed countries. Nevertheless, because of the overwhelming need for the creation of new jobs and because of the opportunities generated by the emerging technologies, all these obstacles m a y be overcome in time. It is hoped that the advanced nations will be able to realize and share these new opportunities with the developing nations to m u t u a l benefit in a world in need of peaceful coexistence.
C A M system would run on programs leased from parent m a n u f a c t u r e r s in industrially advanced countries. F r o m the pilot plant, the parts or components would be delivered to product specialized assembly shops (which could be either part of the pilot operation, independently existing, or new businesses) where they would be finished, assembled, and marketed. A feasibility study of the pilot plant would give universities, professional organizations, private enterprises and governments an opportunity for cooperation for mutual benefit. As successful experience is gained with the pilot plant operation, plans for expansion could be made and implemented. Similar plants could be established in other developing countries. The Mexican border zone adjacent to southern California's industry centers, for example, seems an advantageous location for such a pilot plant. Mexico is a developing c o u n t r y with a great need for creating new jobs for her people. In the zone bordering the United States, the Mexican government has established special conditions to attract new foreign industries. The short distance between the two areas would minimize the initial problem of travel, and movement of equipment and material. The necessity of integrating complex activities and diverse entities in a novel way and on an international scale will create difficulties. There will be c o m m u n i c a t i o n problems due to language differences, values and perceptions, and due to restrictions of the free flow of information. G o v e r n m e n t regulations and growing restlessness in the Third World countries will create obstacles. A shortage will be felt of professionals needed to solve complex problems which require a broad perspective and a change in the way manufacturing is planned and executed. In industrialized countries, product and job obsolescence due to rapid change, u n e m p l o y m e n t , job displacement, and resistance to " e x p o r t " of jobs will probably continue to be a challenge, especially
References !. J. van der Tak, C. Haub and E. Murphy,"A New Look at the Population Problem",The Futurist, VolumeXIV, No. 2, 1980,p. 42. 2. R. W. Tucker,"The Inequalityof Nations", The Futurist, Volume XII, No. 6, 1979,-p.399. 3. Jean-Jaques Servan-Schreiber, The World Challenge, Simonand Schuster, New York, 1981,p. 13. 4. P. O. Geier,Jr., "Attackingthe ProductivityProblem",Manufacturing Engineering and Management, January 1973,p. 26. 5. StevenAshley,"Unmanned,FlexibleMachiningfor SmallShops", American Metal Market and Metalworking News, Volume89, No. 75, April 20, 1981,pp. 10, 16. 6. Steven Ashley,"AdvancedMachiningSystemfor Small Shops", American Metal Market and Metalworking News, Volume90, No. 40, March I, 1982,pp. II, 13, 16. 7. Mutsuko Mukukami,"Factory Automation Key As Fair Sets Record", American Metal Market and Metalworking News, Volume 90, No. 222, November 15, 1982,pp. I I, 12. 8. "Licensingis the Middle Route", International Commerce, U.S. Department of Commerce,December23, 1968. 9. R. Johansen, J. Vallee and K. Spangler, "Electronic Meetings: Utopian Dreamsand ComplexRealities",The Futurist, October 1978, p. 313. 10. A. D. Wheelon,"'Centuryof the Satellite",Design News, June 9, 1980, p. I 1. I1. J. Thornton, "Use of Computer Simulation is Expanding", American MetalMarket and Metalworking News, Volume88, No. I 1I, June 9, 1980,pp. 10, 16. 12. CynthiaJabs, "Small U.S. ManufacturersLookingAbroad for Sales",American Metal Market and Metalworking News, Volume90, No. 26, February8, 1982,pp. 5, 24. 13. Niles Howard and Henriette Sender, "The World Woos U.S. Business",Dun's Business Month, Volume120,No. 5, November1982, p. 39. 14. YonejiMasuda, The In.formation Society, (in Japanese), Institute for the InformationSociety,Tokyo, 1980, p. 120.Translated by the World FutureSociety,Bethesda,Maryland,1981. 15. A. Wrigley,"ComputerCenter Plays Key Role in Ford Plans", American Metal Market and Metahvorking News, Volume88, No. 37, February25, 1980,p. 13.
Author Biography Bolek Brunak received his Dipl. lng. degree (the equivalent of a Masters in Mechanical Engineering) from the Technical College in Vienna, Austria in 1948. Presently, he is working in the Production Engineering
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Department of the Electro-optical Division of Hughes Aircraft Company i n El Segundo, California. In addition, he is a consulting engineer holding a California registration. Prior to establishing his residency in the U.S. in 1962, Mr. Brunak was a cofounder, partner, and technical director of F A C T O M E T Ltd., a leading national metal manufacturing company in Chile where he was an honorary representative of-the Viennese Trade Fair, and a member of the Board of the Austrian Society of Chile.
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