&DQ&KLQDDQG,QGLD5LVH3HDFHIXOO\"
E\6XPLW*DQJXO\DQG0DQMHHW63DUGHVL 6XPLW*DQJXO\LVD3URIHVVRURI3ROLWLFDO6FLHQFHDW,QGLDQD8QLYHUVLW\%ORRPLQJWRQ+HLV D 6HQLRU )HOORZ DW )RUHLJQ 3ROLF\ 5HVHDUFK ,QVWLWXWH 0DQMHHW 6 3DUGHVL LV D GRFWRUDO FDQGLGDWHLQWKH'HSDUWPHQWRI3ROLWLFDO6FLHQFHDW,QGLDQD8QLYHUVLW\%ORRPLQJWRQ7KH\ ZRXOGOLNHWRDFNQRZOHGJHWKHFULWLFLVPVRI6HDQ/\QQ-RQHV'DQ/LQGOH\DQG:LOOLDP5 7KRPSVRQRQHDUOLHUGUDIWVRIWKLVDUWLFOH
$EVWUDFW7KLVDUWLFOHSURYLGHVDEULHIRYHUYLHZRIWKHWKHRUHWLFDOOLWHUDWXUHRQWKHULVHRI&KLQD
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·VULVHKDVEHHQWKHVXEMHFWRIDZLGH UDQJH RI VWXGLHV IRU DOPRVW D GHFDGH QRZ ,QGLD·V HPHUJHQFH KDV ODUJHO\ EHHQ XQGHUVWDWHG 7KLV LV VXUSULVLQJ EHFDXVH ,QGLD·V RYHUDOO QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF DQG PLOLWDU\FDSDELOLWLHVVHHPWRODJ&KLQD·VRQO\E\DGHFDGH
7
&KLQD·V*'3LQFXUUHQW86GROODUV ZDVWULOOLRQZKLOH,QGLD·VZDVWULOOLRQLQ 6LPLODUO\ WRWDO PLOLWDU\ H[SHQGLWXUH LQ &KLQD LQ FRQVWDQW 86 GROODUV ZDV ELOOLRQ LQ ZKLOH ,QGLD VSHQW WKH VDPH DPRXQW LQ 7KH ILJXUHV IRU *'3 ZHUH REWDLQHG IURP WKH ´:RUOG 'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUV *OREDO'HYHORSPHQW)LQDQFHµGDWDEDVHRIWKH:RUOG%DQN7KLVGDWDLV DYDLODEOH RQOLQH DW KWWSGDWDZRUOGEDQNRUJ DFFHVVHG RQ )HE 7KH ILJXUHV IRU PLOLWDU\ H[SHQGLWXUH ZHUH REWDLQHG IURP ´7KH 6,35, 0LOLWDU\ ([SHQGLWXUH 'DWDEDVHµ RI WKH 6WRFNKROP ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 3HDFH 5HVHDUFK ,QVWLWXWH 7KLV GDWD LV DYDLODEOH RQOLQH DW KWWSPLOH[GDWDVLSULRUJ
©3XEOLVKHGIRUWKH)RUHLJQ3ROLF\5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWHE\(OVHYLHU/WG 2012 Published for the Foreign Policy Research Institute by Elsevier Ltd.
470
doi: 10.1016/j.orbis.2012.05.011
&KLQDDQG,QGLD
0RVW RI WKH VWXGLHV IRFXVLQJ RQ WKH ULVH RI &KLQD DQDO\]H WKH ULYDOU\ EHWZHHQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHVDQG &KLQD :KLOH DWWHQWLRQ RQWKH ULYDOU\ EHWZHHQWKH V\VWHP·VGRPLQDQWSRZHUDQGIRUHPRVWULVLQJSRZHULVLPSRUWDQWWKHLPSOLFDWLRQV RI WKH VLPXOWDQHRXV ULVH RI WZR SRZHUV³&KLQD DQG ,QGLD³LQ WKH VDPH UHJLRQ $VLDUHPDLQVXQGHUVWXGLHGLQWKHH[WDQWOLWHUDWXUH7KLVODFXQDLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHLV WURXEOLQJEHFDXVHWKH´OLNHO\HPHUJHQFHRI&KLQDDQG,QGLD«DVQHZPDMRUJOREDO SRZHUVVLPLODUWRWKHDGYHQWRIDXQLWHG*HUPDQ\LQWKHQLQHWHHQWKFHQWXU\DQGD SRZHUIXO 8QLWHG 6WDWHV LQ WKH WZHQWLHWK FHQWXU\³ZLOO WUDQVIRUP WKH JHRSROLWLFDO ODQGVFDSH ZLWK LPSDFWV SRWHQWLDOO\ DV GUDPDWLF DV WKRVH LQ WKH SUHYLRXV WZR FHQWXULHVµ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·V ULVLQJ JLDQWV EDVHG RQ HFRQRPLF LQWHUGHSHQGHQFH DQG WKH SUHVHQFH RI QXFOHDU ZHDSRQV FDQQRW EH JXDUDQWHHG ZLWK FHUWDLQW\ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO5HODWLRQV7KHRU\DQGWKH5LVHRI&KLQD $FFRUGLQJ WR RIIHQVLYH UHDOLVP &KLQD·V ULVH LV OLNHO\ WR OHDG WR DQ LQWHQVH VHFXULW\ FRPSHWLWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG &KLQD )RU H[DPSOH -RKQ 0HDUVKHLPHU KDV DUJXHG WKDW ´&KLQD FDQQRW ULVH SHDFHIXOO\ DQG LI LW FRQWLQXHV LWV GUDPDWLFHFRQRPLFJURZWKRYHUWKHQH[WIHZGHFDGHVWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG&KLQD DUH OLNHO\ WR HQJDJH LQ DQ LQWHQVH VHFXULW\ FRPSHWLWLRQ ZLWK FRQVLGHUDEOH SRWHQWLDO IRUZDUµ$FFRUGLQJWRWKHVWUXFWXUDOORJLFRIRIIHQVLYHUHDOLVP&KLQDZLOODWWHPSW WRHVWDEOLVKLWVRZQUHJLRQDOKHJHPRQ\LQ(DVW$VLDDVLWHPHUJHVDVDPDMRUSRZHU EHFDXVHUHJLRQDOKHJHPRQ\LVWKHEHVWJXDUDQWHHIRUWKHVHFXULW\RIDQ\VWDWH ,Q WKLVVHQVH &KLQD·V EHKDYLRU LV H[SHFWHGWR EH DQDORJRXV WRWKDW RI WKH 8QLWHG6WDWHVLQWKHQLQHWHHQWKFHQWXU\ZKHQ$PHULFDHPHUJHGQRWRQO\DVDJUHDW SRZHUEXWDOVRDVDUHJLRQDOKHJHPRQLQWKH:HVWHUQ+HPLVSKHUH+RZHYHUWKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV ZKLFK LV WKH RQO\ UHJLRQDO KHJHPRQ LQ WKH FXUUHQW LQWHUQDWLRQDO
DFFHVVHGRQ)HE +RZHYHULWVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDW&KLQD·V*'3DQGPLOLWDU\H[SHQGLWXUH KDVJURZQPXFKIDVWHUWKDQ,QGLD·VRYHUWKHSUHYLRXVGHFDGH ´0DSSLQJ WKH *OREDO )XWXUHµ 5HSRUW RI WKH 1DWLRQDO ,QWHOOLJHQFH &RXQFLO·V 3URMHFW 3LWWVEXUJK *RYHUQPHQW3ULQWLQJ2IILFH S 6HH-RKQ-0HDUVKHLPHU·VGHEDWHZLWK=ELJQLHZ%U]H]LQVNLLQ´7KH&ODVKRIWKH7LWDQVµ)RUHLJQ3ROLF\ DYDLODEOHRQOLQHDW KWWSZZZIRUHLJQSROLF\FRPDUWLFOHVFODVKBRIBWKHBWLWDQV"SDJH IXOODFFHVVHGRQ)HE
Summer 2012 | 471
*$1*8/<$1'3$5'(6,
V\VWHP ZLOO VHHN WR SUHYHQW WKH HPHUJHQFH RI &KLQHVH KHJHPRQ\ LQ (DVW $VLD EHFDXVHDVDSRWHQWLDO(DVW$VLDQKHJHPRQ&KLQDPD\EHWHPSWHGWRH[FOXGHWKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV IURP WKLV UHJLRQ DQG ZLOO SHUKDSV HYHQ FKDOOHQJH $PHULFD·V RZQ VHFXULW\DQGGRPLQDQFH LQWKH:HVWHUQ+HPLVSKHUH %XLOGLQJXSRQWKLVVWUXFWXUDODUJXPHQW$DURQ)ULHGEHUJKDVDUJXHGWKDWLI ´%HLMLQJFRPHVWREHOLHYHWKDWLWFDQGHVWUR\86IRUFHVDQGEDVHVLQWKH:HVWHUQ 3DFLILFLQDILUVWVWULNHXVLQJRQO\FRQYHQWLRQDOZHDSRQVWKHUHLVDFKDQFHWKDWLWZLOO VRPHGD\ WU\ WR GR VRµ +RZHYHU WKH 6LQR$PHULFDQ ULYDOU\ LV HYHQ PRUH GDQJHURXVIRU)ULHGEHUJWKDQIRU0HDUVKHLPHUEHFDXVHWKHQDWXUHRIWKHLUULYDOU\LV QRWPHUHO\URRWHGLQWKHFKDQJLQJVWUXFWXUHRIWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOV\VWHPEXWLVDOVRD IXQFWLRQRIWKHLUGLIIHUHQWGRPHVWLFSROLWLFDOUHJLPHV,Q)ULHGEHUJ·VRSLQLRQXQOHVV &KLQDOLEHUDOL]HVWKHSURVSHFWVIRUDWUDQV3DFLILFSHDFHDUHYHU\GLP+RZHYHU RWKHU VFKRODUV UHPDLQ XQFRQYLQFHG DQG $QGUHZ 1DWKDQ KDV DUJXHG WKDW D GHPRFUDWLF &KLQDPD\ HYHQ EH ´D OLWWOHKDUGHU WR GHDOZLWKµ EHFDXVH LW LV OLNHO\ WR SXUVXH ´WKH VDPH QDWLRQDOVHFXULW\ DJHQGD DV WKH DXWKRULWDULDQ UHJLPHµ EHFDXVH RI QDWLRQDOLVP ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKHVH DUJXPHQWV WKDW IRUHVHH DQ LQWHQVH 86&KLQD ULYDOU\ URRWHG LQ VWUXFWXUDO IDFWRUV DQG SHUKDSV H[DFHUEDWHG E\ WKH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH GRPHVWLF SROLWLFDO UHJLPH W\SHV D ULVLQJ &KLQD PD\ FRPH LQWR FRQIOLFW ZLWK WKH 8QLWHG6WDWHVDVDFRQVHTXHQFHRI$PHULFD·VSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQD UHJLRQDOFRQIOLFWLQ (DVW$VLDLQYROYLQJ&KLQDDQGRQHRILWVQHLJKERUVZKLFKLVDOOLHGZLWKWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHV)RUH[DPSOHDULVLQJ&KLQDPD\FRPHWREORZVZLWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDVD UHVXOW RI D &KLQD7DLZDQ FRQIOLFW LQ WKH 7DLZDQ 6WUDLW 6LPLODUO\ D FRQIOLFW LQ WKH 6RXWK&KLQD6HDLQYROYLQJ&KLQDDQGRQHRUPRUHRI6RXWKHDVW$VLDQVWDWHVRYHU GLVSXWHG LVODQG WHUULWRULHV KDV WKH SRWHQWLDO WR LQYROYH WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV JLYHQ LWV LPSOLFLW DQG H[SOLFLW VHFXULW\ JXDUDQWHHV WR PDQ\ RI WKH VWDWHV LQ WKLV UHJLRQ $ FRQIOLFW LQ WKH 6RXWK &KLQD 6HD PD\ HYHQ EH PRUH GDQJHURXV EHFDXVH WKH UDSLG JURZWKRI&KLQHVHVHDSRZHUPD\EHSHUFHLYHGE\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDVD&KLQHVH GHVLUHIRUWKHFRQWURORIWKHVHDV :KLOH WKHVH VWUXFWXUDO UHJLRQDO DQG GRPHVWLF VRXUFHV RI FRQIOLFW LQ WKH 6LQR$PHULFDQ ULYDOU\ KDYH EHHQ RQH PDMRU DSSURDFK WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH FRQIOLFW G\QDPLFVEHWZHHQDULVLQJ&KLQDDQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVRWKHUVFKRODUVKDYHWXUQHG WRPRUHWUDGLWLRQDOV\VWHPLFWKHRULHVSHUWDLQLQJWRWKHULVHDQGIDOORIJUHDWSRZHUV
$DURQ / )ULHGEHUJ $ &RQWHVW IRU 6XSUHPDF\ &KLQD $PHULFD DQG WKH 6WUXJJOH IRU 0DVWHU\ LQ $VLD 1HZ
472 | Orbis
&KLQDDQG,QGLD
)RU WKHVH VFKRODUV SRZHU WUDQVLWLRQ WKHRU\ KDV HPHUJHG DV D PDMRU WKHRUHWLFDO DSSURDFKWRDQDO\]HWKHLPSOLFDWLRQVRIWKHULVHRI&KLQDIRUWKH86&KLQDULYDOU\ $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH ORJLF RI SRZHU WUDQVLWLRQ WKHRU\ ZDU LV PRVW OLNHO\ ZKHQ D GLVVDWLVILHG ULVLQJ SRZHU EHJLQV WR FDWFK XS ZLWK DQG RYHUWDNHV WKH V\VWHP·V GRPLQDQW SRZHU $V VXFK LW LV ZLGHO\ EHOLHYHG WKDW WKHUH ZLOO EH D KHLJKWHQHG SUREDELOLW\ RI FRQIOLFW DQG ZDU DV &KLQD D GLVVDWLVILHG SRZHU EHJLQV WR FDWFK XS ZLWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVLQWHUPVRILWVPDWHULDOFDSDELOLWLHV+RZHYHUZKLOH´>S@RZHU WUDQVLWLRQ WKHRU\ LV FRUUHFW WR LGHQWLI\ WKH ULVH RI &KLQD DV WKH OHDGLQJ JHRSROLWLFDO HYHQWRIWKHFRPLQJGHFDGHVµLWSODFHV´WRRPXFKHPSKDVLVRQLWVLPSDFWRQWKH JOREDOKLHUDUFK\DQGQRWHQRXJKRQWKH$VLDQUHJLRQDOKLHUDUFK\µ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´UHJLRQDOµYDULDQWRISRZHUWUDQVLWLRQWKHRU\PD\EHDEOHWRVKHGVRPHWKHRUHWLFDO OLJKWRQWKH6LQR,QGLDQULYDOU\LQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKHLUVLPXOWDQHRXVULVH 7KH5LVHRI&KLQDDQGWKH6LQR,QGLDQ5LYDOU\ 7KLV YDULDQW KROGV WKDW WKHUH LV D KLJK SURSHQVLW\ IRU FRQIOLFW EHWZHHQ GRPLQDQWDQGDVSLULQJ´UHJLRQDOµJUHDWSRZHUV7KLVYHUVLRQLVEDVHGRQDQDQDO\VLVRI WKHULVHRIJUHDWSRZHUVRYHUWKHSDVWKDOIPLOOHQQLXP'DYLG5DSNLQDQG:LOOLDP 7KRPSVRQ KDYH KLJKOLJKWHG WKUHH IHDWXUHV VXUURXQGLQJ WKH HPHUJHQFH RI JUHDW SRZHUV)LUVWDOOJUHDWSRZHUVKDYHDULVHQLQWKHFRQWH[WRIH[WHQVLYHZDUIDUHDV WKH\KDYHIHOWLWQHFHVVDU\WRGHPRQVWUDWHWKHLUQHZVWDWXVE\GHIHDWLQJDQRWKHUVWDWH LQ FRPEDW 6HFRQG PRVW JUHDW SRZHUV KDYH HPHUJHG LQ WURXEOHG QHLJKERUKRRGV DQGKDYHGHHPHGLWLPSRUWDQWWRILJKWZLWKORFDODGYHUVDULHVRYHUWHUULWRU\RUWUDGH
7KH SRZHU WUDQVLWLRQ WKHRU\ ZDV GHYHORSHG E\ 2UJDQVNL DQG WKHQ UHILQHG E\ KLP .XJOHU /HPNH
DQGRWKHUVFKRODUV6HH$).2UJDQVNL:RUOG3ROLWLFV1HZ
Summer 2012 | 473
*$1*8/<$1'3$5'(6,
)LQDOO\VRPHJUHDWSRZHUVDOVRDWWHPSWWRHPHUJHDVWKHSUHGRPLQDQWJUHDWSRZHU LQWKHLUKRPHUHJLRQDQGRIWHQUHVRUWWRIRUFHWRHVWDEOLVKWKHPVHOYHVDWWKHDSH[RI WKHUHJLRQDOSRZHUKLHUDUFK\ :KLOH 5DSNLQ DQG 7KRPSVRQ DUH PRUH LQWHUHVWHG LQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH FRQWH[W VXUURXQGLQJ WKH ULVH RI D QHZ JUHDW SRZHU ZH DUH PRUH LQWHUHVWHG LQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJWKHG\QDPLFDFFRPSDQ\LQJWKHVLPXOWDQHRXVULVHRIWZRJUHDWSRZHUV LQWKHVDPHUHJLRQ7REHJLQZLWK$VLDLVKRPHWRRQHH[LVWLQJJUHDWSRZHU&KLQD DQGRQHDVSLULQJJUHDWSRZHU,QGLD 7KHZRUNLQJDVVXPSWLRQKHUHLVWKDWLQWKH SURFHVVRIFKDOOHQJLQJ$PHULFD·VV\VWHPLFOHDGHUVKLSDWWKHJOREDOOHYHO&KLQDWKH H[LVWLQJJUHDWSRZHULQ$VLDZLOODWWHPSWWRHVWDEOLVKLWVHOIDWWKHWRSRIWKH$VLDQ SRZHU KLHUDUFK\ +RZHYHU LQ LWV ELG WR GR VR ZKHWKHU WKURXJK WHUULWRULDO H[SDQVLRQRUWKURXJKWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRILWVUHJLRQDOKHJHPRQ\LQ$VLD&KLQDZLOO FRQIURQW $VLD·V DVSLULQJ JUHDW SRZHU ,QGLD 7KH FODVK RI &KLQD DQG ,QGLD LQ WKLV FRQWH[WPD\OHDGWRDOLPLWHGFRQYHQWLRQDOZDU$JDLQLWLVHPSKDVL]HGWKDWFRQIOLFW EHWZHHQ&KLQDDQG,QGLDLVQRWLQHYLWDEOHDVSHUWKLVPRGLILHG´UHJLRQDOµYDULDQWRI SRZHUWUDQVLWLRQWKHRU\+RZHYHUWKHSRVVLELOLW\RI6LQR,QGLDQFRQIOLFWDQGHYHQ ZDUFDQQRWEHLJQRUHGJLYHQWKHVRXUFHVRIWHQVLRQVLQWKH6LQR,QGLDQFRQIOLFW 6RXUFHVRI&RQIOLFWLQWKH6LQR,QGLDQ5HODWLRQVKLS &KLQDDQG,QGLDKDYHEHHQHQJDJHGLQDSURWUDFWHGULYDOU\IRUSRZHUDQGLQIOXHQFH LQ$VLDVLQFHWKHLUHPHUJHQFHDVPRGHUQVWDWHVLQWKHODWHV$WWKHKHDUWRIWKH 6LQR,QGLDQULYDOU\LVWKHLURYHUODSSLQJVSKHUHVRILQIOXHQFHLQ$VLDWKH+LPDOD\DQ UHJLRQ 6RXWKHDVW $VLD WKH ,QGLDQ 2FHDQ 5HJLRQ DQG SDUWV RI &HQWUDO $VLD ´&KLQHVH DQG ,QGLDQ QDWLRQDOLVWV ERWK SHUFHLYH WKH VDPH DUHDV DV ULJKWIXOO\ IDOOLQJ XQGHUWKHLULQIOXHQFHµDQGWKHUHIRUH´VHHWKHRWKHUFRXQWU\DVDFKDOOHQJHWRWKHLU RZQµ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·VLQYDVLRQRI7LEHW+RZHYHU&KLQDUHIXVHGWRUHFRJQL]HWKHERUGHUWUHDW\ EHWZHHQ%ULWLVK,QGLDDQG7LEHWDIWHUFODLPLQJWKDW7LEHWKDGQRULJKWWRHQWHULQWRD
-RKQ : *DUYHU 3URWUDFWHG &RQWHVW 6LQR,QGLDQ 5LYDOU\ LQ WKH 7ZHQWLHWK &HQWXU\ 6HDWWOH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI :DVKLQJWRQ3UHVV S )RU D VXFFLQFW VXPPDU\ RI WKH 6LQR,QGLDQ ERUGHU GLVSXWH ZLWK IDFWV SHUWDLQLQJ WR FODLPV DQG FRXQWHUFODLPV VHH 6WHYHQ $ +RIIPDQQ ,QGLD DQG WKH &KLQD &ULVLV 'HOKL 2[IRUG 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV SS
474 | Orbis
&KLQDDQG,QGLD
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·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·V SRZHU OXUNLQJ EHKLQG WKH GHYHORSPHQWVLQ7LEHW:KLOHWKHUHLVQRHYLGHQFHRIDQ\,QGLDQDVVLVWDQFHWRWKH UHYROWLQ7LEHW&KLQDEHOLHYHGWKDW,QGLDZDQWHGWRUHVWRUH7LEHWWRLWVSUH VWDWXVDVD´EXIIHUVWDWHµEHWZHHQ&KLQDDQG,QGLDDVWDWHWKDWZRXOGEHXQGHUWKH ,QGLDQ VSKHUH RI LQIOXHQFH &KLQHVH VXVSLFLRQV ZHUH IXUWKHU KHLJKWHQHG EHFDXVH ,QGLDGHPDQGHG&KLQD·VZLWKGUDZDOIURP$NVDL&KLQDQGEDFNHGXSLWVGLSORPDWLF UKHWRULF ZLWK DQ LOOFRQFHLYHG PLOLWDU\ VWUDWHJ\ RI FRPSHOOHQFH NQRZQ DV WKH ´IRUZDUG SROLF\µ LQ ,QGLD ,Q WKH V WKHUH ZHUH RQO\ WKUHH URDGV FRQQHFWLQJ 7LEHWZLWK&KLQDZLWKWKHURDGWKURXJK$NVDL&KLQEHLQJWKHRQO\DOOZHDWKHUURXWH DYDLODEOH$OWKRXJK,QGLDKDGQRSODQVGLSORPDWLFRUPLOLWDU\ WRVHYHU7LEHWIURP &KLQD WKH ERUGHU LVVXH KDG EHFRPH OLQNHG WR WKH VWDWXV RI 7LEHW LQ &KLQHVH SHUFHSWLRQV,QRUGHUWRVHWWOHWKH7LEHWLVVXH&KLQDODXQFKHGDOLPLWHGZDUDJDLQVW ,QGLDLQ2FWREHU1RYHPEHU ,QGLD·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·VLQIOXHQFHLQ $VLDDIWHUWKH6LQR,QGLDQ:DUE\HVWDEOLVKLQJ´DQDOOZHDWKHUIULHQGVKLSµZLWK
-RKQ:*DUYHU´&KLQD·V'HFLVLRQIRU:DUZLWK,QGLDLQµLQ-RKQVWRQDQG5RVV1HZ'LUHFWLRQV
LQWKH6WXG\RI&KLQD·V)RUHLJQ3ROLF\SS
Summer 2012 | 475
*$1*8/<$1'3$5'(6,
3DNLVWDQ ,QGLD·V VXEFRQWLQHQWDO ULYDO &KLQD QRW RQO\ WKUHDWHQHG WR RSHQ D VHFRQGIURQWDJDLQVW,QGLDGXULQJWKHDQG,QGLD3DNLVWDQZDUVEXWDOVR H[WHQGHG FODQGHVWLQH VXSSRUW WR 3DNLVWDQ·V QXFOHDU ZHDSRQV SURJUDP DIWHU ,QGLD·V QXFOHDUWHVW&KLQDKDVODUJHO\XVHGLWVVWUDWHJLFSDUWQHUVKLSZLWK3DNLVWDQDVD ORZFRVWZD\WRXQGHUFXW,QGLD·VLQIOXHQFHLQ$VLDE\NHHSLQJ1HZ'HOKLWLHGXSLQ WKHDIIDLUVRIWKHVXEFRQWLQHQW +RZHYHUZLWKWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIVWUXFWXUDOHFRQRPLFUHIRUPVDIWHUWKH HQG RI WKH &ROG :DU LQ WKH ,QGLDQ HFRQRP\ EHJDQ WR JURZ UDSLGO\ WKXV SURYLGLQJ 1HZ 'HOKL ZLWK WKH UHVRXUFHV WR EUHDN RXW RI LWV 6RXWK $VLDQ VWUDWHJLF ER[5LGLQJRQLWVUDSLGHFRQRPLFJURZWK,QGLDODXQFKHGLWV´ORRNHDVWµSROLF\WR UHDFKRXWWRLWV6RXWKHDVW$VLDQQHLJKERUV,QWKHPHDQZKLOH&KLQDWRRZDVDOVRLQ WKH SURFHVV RI HVWDEOLVKLQJ LWVHOI DV D PDMRU SRZHU LQ WKLV UHJLRQ 7KHLU VLPXOWDQHRXVULVHLQ$VLDKDVOHGWRDQLQWHQVLILFDWLRQRIWKHLUULYDOU\IRUSRZHUDQG LQIOXHQFHLQUHFHQW\HDUV%XWWKHLUXQUHVROYHGERUGHULVVXHDQGWKHSUHVHQFHRIWKH 'DODL/DPDLQ,QGLDDORQJZLWK7LEHW·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
,QIDFWLWKDVHYHQEHHQDUJXHGWKDWDULVLQJ&KLQDZLOOWU\WRUHFUHDWHWKH6LQRFHQWULFLQWHUQDWLRQDO
RUGHULQ(DVW$VLDWKDWKDGGHILQHGWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDORUGHULQWKDWUHJLRQEHIRUHZHVWHUQSHQHWUDWLRQLQ WKHQLQHWHHQWKFHQWXU\6HH'DYLG.DQJ&KLQD5LVLQJ3HDFH3RZHUDQG2UGHULQ(DVW$VLD1HZ
476 | Orbis
&KLQDDQG,QGLD
'HVSLWHEHLQJHQJDJHGLQERUGHUWDONVIRUPRUHWKDQWKUHHGHFDGHVQRZWKH WZRVLGHVKDYHPDGHRQO\PDUJLQDOSURJUHVVWRZDUGWKHUHVROXWLRQRIWKHERXQGDU\ GLVSXWH 7KH RQO\ VXEVWDQWLDO DFKLHYHPHQW RI WKHVH ERUGHU WDONV KDYH EHHQ WZR PLOLWDU\FRQILGHQFHEXLOGLQJPHDVXUHV&%0V ZKLFKZHUHVLJQHGE\WKHWZRVLGHV LQDQG,QVSLWHRIWKLV&KLQDKDVUDLVHGWKHDQWHDORQJWKH6LQR,QGLDQ ERUGHUVLQFHZKHQLWEHJDQUHIHUULQJWRWKH,QGLDQVWDWHRI$UXQDFKDO3UDGHVK VRXWKRIWKH0F0DKRQ/LQH DV´=DQJQDQµRU6RXWK7LEHW ,QIDFW%HLMLQJLVVDLG WR KDYH FDWHJRULFDOO\ WROG 1HZ 'HOKL HDUOLHU WKLV \HDU WKDW WKH 6LQR,QGLDQ ERUGHU LVVXHFDQQRWEHUHVROYHGXQWLOLWUHFHLYHGLWV´VKDUHµRI$UXQDFKDO3UDGHVK 2IFRQVLGHUDEOHLQWHUHVWWR&KLQDLVDVPDOOVOLYHURIWHUULWRU\FDOOHG7DZDQJ LQ $UXQDFKDO 3UDGHVK WR WKH LPPHGLDWH HDVW RI %KXWDQ *LYHQ LWV FRQVLGHUDEOH UHVRXUFH SRWHQWLDO 7DZDQJ FRXOG VXVWDLQ XS WR D WKLUG RI 7LEHW·V HFRQRP\ DFFRUGLQJ WR VRPH HVWLPDWHV 7DZDQJ LV DOVR WKH ELUWK SODFH RI WKH VL[WK 'DODL /DPD DQG&KLQDPD\ZLVKWREROVWHUWKHOHJLWLPDF\RILWVUXOHLQ7LEHW E\LQFRUSRUDWLQJWKLVHWKQLF7LEHWDQUHJLRQZKLFKKDVEHHQDSDUWRI,QGLD0RVW LPSRUWDQWO\D&KLQHVHPLOLWDU\SUHVHQFHLQ7DZDQJVRXWKRIWKH+LPDOD\DVZLOO SURYLGH LW WDFWLFDO RIIHQVLYH DGYDQWDJH DQG SXW WKH VHFXULW\ RI ,QGLD·V HQWLUH QRUWKHDVWHUQUHJLRQHDVWRI%DQJODGHVK DWULVN*LYHQLWVLPSOLFDWLRQVIRULWVORFDO PLOLWDU\EDODQFHDQG,QGLD·VWHUULWRULDOLQWHJULW\LWKDVHYHQEHHQDUJXHGWKDWLI&KLQD VXFFHHGVLQPLOLWDULO\RFFXS\LQJ7DZDQJWKURXJKDOLPLWHGZDULWZRXOG´SXQFWXUH ,QGLD·V DPELWLRQV WR EH &KLQD·V HTXDO RU SHHU FRPSHWLWRU RQFH DQG IRU DOOµ DQG PDNH1HZ'HOKL´PRUHGHIHUHQWLDOLQGHDOLQJµ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
6DXUDEK6KXNOD´&KLQDSOD\VWKHEXOO\RQ$UXQDFKDO%HLMLQJWHOOV'HOKLWRZRUNRXW(DVWHUQ6HFWRU
)RUPXODµ-DQDYDLODEOH RQOLQH DWKWWSZZZGDLO\PDLOFRXNLQGLDKRPHLQGLDQHZVDUWLFOH &KLQDSOD\VEXOO\$UXQDFKDO%HLMLQJWHOOV'HOKLZRUN(DVWHUQVHFWRUIRUPXODKWPO DFFHVVHG RQ)HE 5DQGHHS 5DPHVK ´/DVW YHVWLJH RI ROG 7LEHWDQ FXOWXUH FOLQJV RQ LQ UHPRWH ,QGLDQ VWDWHµ 7KH *XDUGLDQ1RY 0RKDQ0DOLN&KLQDDQG,QGLD*UHDW3RZHU5LYDOV%RXOGHU)LUVW)RUXP3UHVV SS 6DXUDEK6KXNOD´%HOOLJHUHQWRQWKH%RUGHUµ,QGLD7RGD\-DQ 0DOLN &KLQD DQG ,QGLD S DQG (GZDUG :RQJ ´&KLQD DQG ,QGLD 'LVSXWH (QFODYH RQ (GJH RI 7LEHWµ1HZ
Summer 2012 | 477
*$1*8/<$1'3$5'(6,
VHFWLRQVRIWKHERUGHU³VXFKDVWKHERUGHUEHWZHHQWKH,QGLDQVWDWHRI6LNNLPDQG &KLQD³ZKHUHWKHUHZDVQRGLVSXWHUHJDUGLQJWKHIURQWLHUV 7KHWKLUGIDFWRUWKDWUDLVHVWKHSRVVLELOLW\RIDFRQIOLFWEHWZHHQ&KLQDDQG ,QGLD JLYHQ WKHLU GLVSXWHG IURQWLHUV LV WKH PLOLWDUL]DWLRQ RI WKH HQWLUH 6LQR,QGLDQ ERUGHU7KHUHDUHDSSUR[LPDWHO\WKRXVDQG&KLQHVHWURRSVLQWKH&KHQJGX DQG /DQ]KRX PLOLWDU\ UHJLRQV WKDW FDQEH HDVLO\ GHSOR\HG DOO DORQJ7LEHW·V ERUGHUV ZLWK ,QGLD LQ WKH HYHQW RI D PLOLWDU\ FRQWLQJHQF\ 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG ,QGLD KDV DERXWWURRSVLQUHJLRQVDORQJ,QGLD·VERUGHUVZLWK7LEHW,QVSLWHRIWKLV GLIIHUHQFHLWLVEHOLHYHGWKDWWKH6LQR,QGLDQPLOLWDU\EDODQFHGDORQJWKHLUERUGHULV UHODWLYHO\ EDODQFHG EHFDXVH ,QGLD PD\ KDYH D WDFWLFDO HGJH LQ WHUPV RI DLU SRZHU DORQJWKHERUGHU +RZHYHU&KLQD·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·VSUHFLVLRQJXLGHGZHDSRQU\7KHUDSLGPLOLWDUL]DWLRQRI WKH 6LQR,QGLDQ ERUGHU DW D WLPH ZKHQ ERUGHU YLRODWLRQV DUH LQFUHDVLQJ GRHV QRW SRUWHQGDSHDFHIXORXWFRPH)XUWKHUPRUH7LEHW·VSROLWLFDOLQWHJUDWLRQZLWK&KLQD UHPDLQVLQFRPSOHWH*LYHQWKDWWKH'DODL/DPDWKH7LEHWDQJRYHUQPHQWLQH[LOH DQG RYHU D KXQGUHG WKRXVDQG 7LEHWDQ UHIXJHHV OLYH LQ ,QGLD &KLQD PD\ KDYH DQ LQFHQWLYHWRNHHSWKHERUGHULVVXHDOLYHLQRUGHUWR´GHWHUµ,QGLDIURPLQWHUYHQLQJLQ 7LEHW%XWWKLVUHPDLQVDULVN\VWUDWHJ\EHFDXVH&KLQHVHPLVSHUFHSWLRQVUHJDUGLQJ ,QGLD·VLQYROYHPHQWLQ7LEHWSOD\HGDQLPSRUWDQWUROHLQ&KLQD·VGHFLVLRQWRODXQFK DZDUDJDLQVW,QGLDLQDVH[SODLQHGDERYH
&KLQDLVQRZFODLPLQJDVTXDUHNLORPHWHUUHJLRQLQQRUWKZHVWHUQ6LNNLPWKURXJKZKLFKLWZDV EXLOGLQJ D URDG 6HH 3UDQDE 'KDO 6DPDQWD ´&KLQD UDLVHV 6LNNLP ERXQGDU\ GLVSXWH GXULQJ 3UDQDE YLVLWµ,QGLDQ([SUHVV-XQH 2Q PLOLWDU\ GHSOR\PHQWV DORQJ WKH 6LQR,QGLDQ ERUGHU VHH 6ULNDQWK .RQGDSDOOL ´7KH &KLQHVH 0LOLWDU\ (\HV 6RXWK $VLDµ LQ $QGUHZ 6FREHOO DQG /DUU\ 0 :RUW]HOO HGV 6KDSLQJ &KLQD·V 6HFXULW\ (QYLURQPHQW7KH5ROHRIWKH3HRSOH·V/LEHUDWLRQ$UP\&DUOLVOH%DUUDFNV3$6WUDWHJLF6WXGLHV,QVWLWXWH86 $UP\:DU&ROOHJH SS 5DMDW3DQGLW´PRXQWDLQGLYLVLRQVWRFRXQWHU&KLQDµ7KH7LPHVRI,QGLD1RY´7H]SXU &KDEXD WR KRXVH WZR 6XNKRL VTXDGURQV HDFKµ ,%1/LYH $SU DYDLODEOH RQOLQH DW KWWSLEQOLYHLQFRPJHQHUDOQHZVIHHGQHZVWH]SXUFKDEXDWRKRXVHWZRVXNKRLVTXDGURQV HDFKKWPODFFHVVHGRQ)HE 6ULNDQWK.RQGDSDOOL´0LOLWDU\7LHV,QGLDDQG&KLQDWU\WR¶EUHDNWKHLFH·µ5HGLII1HZV'HF DYDLODEOH RQOLQH DW KWWSZZZUHGLIIFRPQHZVFROXPQPLOLWDU\WLHVLQGLDDQGFKLQDWU\WREUHDN WKHLFHKWPDFFHVVHGRQ)HE
478 | Orbis
&KLQDDQG,QGLD
7KH5LVHRI*UHDW3RZHUVLQ7URXEOHG1HLJKERUKRRGV 7KHUH LV DOVR DPSOH VXSSRUW IRU 5DSNLQ DQG 7KRPSVRQ·V VHFRQG SURSRVLWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRZKLFKWKHULVHRIJUHDWSRZHUVLQWURXEOHGQHLJKERUKRRGV UDLVHV WKH SRVVLELOLW\ IRU FRQIOLFW EHWZHHQ WKHP DV WKH\ YLH IRU WUDGH DQG WHUULWRU\ &KLQD DQG ,QGLD·V ULVH LV LQGHHG FUHDWLQJ D QXPEHU RI SRLQWV RI IULFWLRQ LQ WKHLU UHODWLRQVKLSDVWKH\FRPSHWHIRULQIOXHQFHLQ6RXWKDQG6RXWKHDVW$VLDDUHJLRQWKDW LV PLUHG ZLWK VRXUFHV RI LQVWDELOLW\ IURP 3DNLVWDQ DQG .DVKPLULQ WKH ZHVW WR WKH 6RXWK &KLQD 6HD LQ WKH HDVW ´&KLQD·V FRRSHUDWLYH UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK 3DNLVWDQ LV DUJXDEO\ WKH PRVW VWDEOH DQG GXUDEOH HOHPHQW RI &KLQD·V IRUHLJQ UHODWLRQVµ &RQWLQXLQJ LWV ORQJVWDQGLQJ VWUDWHJLF UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK 3DNLVWDQ &KLQD SURYLGHG 3DNLVWDQZLWKFRQVLGHUDEOHGLSORPDWLFDQGPLOLWDU\VXSSRUWGXULQJWKH.DUJLO :DUDVZHOODVGXULQJWKH,QGLD3DNLVWDQPLOLWDU\FULVLVWKDWHPHUJHGLQWKH DIWHUPDWK RI 'HFHPEHU WHUURULVW DWWDFNV RQ WKH ,QGLDQ 3DUOLDPHQW E\ JURXSV EDVHG DQG WUDLQHG LQ 3DNLVWDQ ZLWK DW OHDVW WDFLW RIILFLDO FRPSOLFLW\ *LYHQ WKLV UHODWLRQVKLS WKH ,QGLDQ PLOLWDU\ LV ZRUNLQJ RQ D QHZ PLOLWDU\ GRFWULQH WKDW ZLOO SUHSDUHLWIRUD´WZRIURQWZDUµ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´SURYLVLRQDOµ RQH SHQGLQJ WKH UHVROXWLRQ RI WKH ,QGLD3DNLVWDQ GLVSXWH RYHU .DVKPLU &KLQD KDV HYHU\ VWUDWHJLF LQFHQWLYHWREDFN3DNLVWDQ·VSRVLWLRQ ,QIDFWWKLVWLOWKDVEHHQSDOSDEO\YLVLEOHLQ&KLQD·V.DVKPLUSROLF\RYHUWKH SDVW GHFDGH RU VR )RU H[DPSOH &KLQD KDV UDLVHG WKH VWDNHV RYHU WKH VWDWXV RI .DVKPLUE\EHJLQQLQJWRTXHVWLRQWKHOHQJWKRIWKH6LQR,QGLDQERUGHUDVGLVFXVVHG DERYH)XUWKHUPRUHLQUHFHQW\HDUVZKHQ,QGLDQFLWL]HQVRI.DVKPLULRULJLQKDYH
-RKQ*DUYHU3URWUDFWHG&RQWHVWS(PSKDVLVRULJLQDO
-RKQ:*DUYHU´&KLQD·V.DVKPLU3ROLFLHVµ,QGLD5HYLHZ9ROXPH1XPEHU SS
5DMDW3DQGLW´$UP\UHZRUNVZDUGRFWULQHIRU3DNLVWDQ&KLQDµ7KH7LPHVRI,QGLD'HFDQG
6DQGHHS8QQLWKDQ´7KH&KL3DN7KUHDWµ,QGLD7RGD\2FW 2Q WKH &KLQD3DNLVWDQ ERUGHU DJUHHPHQW VHH 0 7D\ORU )UDYHO 6WURQJ %RUGHUV 6HFXUH 1DWLRQ &RRSHUDWLRQ DQG &RQIOLFW LQ &KLQD·V 7HUULWRULDO 'LVSXWHV 3ULQFHWRQ 3ULQFHWRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV SS
Summer 2012 | 479
*$1*8/<$1'3$5'(6,
DSSOLHGIRU&KLQHVHYLVDV&KLQDKDVQRWEHHQVWDPSLQJWKHLUYLVDVGLUHFWO\RQWKHLU ,QGLDQJRYHUQPHQW LVVXHG SDVVSRUWV ,Q RUGHU WR KLJKOLJKW WKH GLVSXWHG VWDWXV RI .DVKPLU&KLQDKDVEHHQJUDQWLQJWKHPYLVDVRQVHSDUDWHSLHFHVRISDSHUZKLFKDUH WKHQVWDSOHGRQWRWKHLUSDVVSRUWV%XWWURXEOLQJO\IRU,QGLDWKLVWUHDWPHQWKDVQRW EHHQ PHWHG RXW WR 3DNLVWDQLFLWL]HQV KDLOLQJ IURP 3DNLVWDQDGPLQLVWHUHG .DVKPLU ,QIDFWLQDSDUWLFXODUO\WURXEOLQJFDVHIRU1HZ'HOKL&KLQDUHIXVHGDYLVDWRWKH FRPPDQGLQJRIILFHURIWKH,QGLDQ$UP\·V1RUWKHUQ&RPPDQGLQDVKHKDG VHUYHGLQDQRVWHQVLEO\GLVSXWHGUHJLRQ ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR UDLVLQJ WKH GLSORPDWLF DQWH RYHU .DVKPLU LQ UHFHQW \HDUV WKHUH DUH DOVR GLVWXUELQJ VLJQV RI &KLQD·V PLOLWDU\ DFWLYLWLHV LQ 3DNLVWDQFRQWUROOHG .DVKPLU 7KH SUHVHQFH RI VHYHUDO WKRXVDQG WURRSV RI &KLQD·V 3HRSOH·V /LEHUDWLRQ $UP\ 3/$ LQ WKH *LOJLW%DOWLVWDQ UHJLRQ RI 3DNLVWDQL.DVKPLUH ZKHUH WKH\ DUH HQJDJHG LQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUHEXLOGLQJ DFWLYLWLHV KDV OHG RQH SURPLQHQW DQDO\VW WR TXHVWLRQLI3DNLVWDQZDVKDQGLQJRYHUWKH´GHIDFWRFRQWUROµRIWKLVUHJLRQWR&KLQD :KLOHWKHVHWURRSVPD\EHORQJWRWKH3/$·VHQJLQHHULQJFRUSVLQVWHDGRIDUPRUHG RULQIDQWU\FRUSVPHDQWIRUZDUILJKWLQJ WKHLUSUHVHQFHKDVDOVREHHQFRQILUPHGE\ ,QGLDQ VHFXULW\ DJHQFLHV ,Q WKH PLGVW RI DOO WKHVH GLSORPDWLF DQG PLOLWDU\ GHYHORSPHQWVRYHUWKHVWDWXVRI.DVKPLUWKH,QGLDQIRUHLJQPLQLVWHU60.ULVKQD LQIRUPHGWKH&KLQHVH3UHPLHU:HQ-LDEDRWKDW.DVKPLUZDVD´FRUHµ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·VHFRQRPLFJDWHZD\WR6RXWKHDVW$VLD&KLQDKDV LQYHVWHGSROLWLFDOO\HFRQRPLFDOO\DQGVWUDWHJLFDOO\LQ0\DQPDULQRUGHUWRSURYLGH DFFHVVIRULWVODQGORFNHGVRXWKZHVWHUQSURYLQFHVWRWKH,QGLDQ2FHDQ5HJLRQDQGLW KDV HYHQ EHHQ DOOHJHG WKDW ODUJH WUDFWV RI 0\DQPDU DPRXQW WR D YLUWXDO FRORQ\ RI &KLQD*LYHQ&KLQD·VHFRQRPLFSHQHWUDWLRQRI0\DQPDU,QGLDKDVDOVREHJXQWR HQJDJH 0\DQPDU·V PLOLWDU\ MXQWD LQ RUGHU WR SUHYHQW LW IURP IDOOLQJ XQGHU &KLQD·V LQIOXHQFH 0\DQPDU·V FRQVLGHUDEOH HQHUJ\ SRWHQWLDO LV DQRWKHU VRXUFH RI 6LQR ,QGLDQFRPSHWLWLRQLQWKDWUHJLRQ
´&KLQHVH7URRSVLQ3DNLVWDQRFFXSLHG.DVKPLU*HQ9.6LQJKµ7KH(FRQRPLF7LPHV2FW
´.DVKPLUWRXVZKDW7LEHWLVWR&KLQD.ULVKQDµ7KH7LPHVRI,QGLD'HF,QGUDQL%DJFKL
´.HHSRII3R.,QGLDZDUQV&KLQDµ7KH7LPHVRI,QGLD6HSW
+RQJ=KDR´&KLQD·V0\DQPDU 3ROLF\&KDOOHQJHVDQG$GMXVWPHQWVµLQ
&KRXHGV&KLQD·V3ROLFLHVRQLWV%RUGHUODQGVDQGWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO,PSOLFDWLRQV6LQJDSRUH:RUOG6FLHQWLILF SS 5HQDXG(JUHWHDX:RRLQJWKH*HQHUDOV,QGLD·V1HZ%XUPD3ROLF\1HZ'HOKL$XWKRUVSUHVV
480 | Orbis
&KLQDDQG,QGLD
7KH6LQR,QGLDQULYDOU\LQ0\DQPDUKDVDVWURQJQDYDOGLPHQVLRQJLYHQWKH FRQVWDQW EXW XQFRQILUPHG UHSRUWV DERXW &KLQHVH PLOLWDU\ IDFLOLWLHV RQ 0\DQPDU·V LVODQGVLQWKH%D\RI%HQJDODQGWKH$QGDPDQ6HD+RZHYHUDVDUHVXOWRI&KLQD·V UDSLGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHEXLOGLQJDFWLYLWLHVLQ0\DQPDUZKLFKLQFOXGHDLUSRUWVDQGURDGV ,QGLDKDVEHJXQWRXSJUDGHLWV$QGDPDQDQG1LFREDU&RPPDQG,QGLD·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·V WHUULWRULDO ZDWHUV &KLQD HPSKDWLFDOO\ FODLPHG WKDW WKH ,QGLD9LHWQDP RLOH[SORUDWLRQDJUHHPHQWPXVWEHVWRSSHGEHFDXVHWKH6RXWK&KLQD6HD³DUHJLRQ RYHUZKLFK&KLQDFODLPVVRYHUHLJQFRQWURO³FRQVWLWXWHG&KLQD·VFRUHLQWHUHVWV,Q IDFWWKHUHZDVDSSDUHQWO\DGLSORPDWLFLQFLGHQWLQYROYLQJ&KLQHVHDQG,QGLDQQDYDO VKLSV LQ WKH 6RXWK &KLQD 6HD LQ 7KH SRWHQWLDO SRLQWV IRU 6LQR,QGLDQ FRQIOLFW RYHU WHUULWRU\ DQG QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV KDYH JURZQ DORQJ ZLWK WKHLU VLPXOWDQHRXV ULVH DV WKH WZR $VLDQ JLDQWV KDYH EHJXQ HQJDJLQJ WKHLU WURXEOHG QHLJKERUKRRGLQ6RXWKDQG6RXWKHDVW$VLD 5HJLRQDO'RPLQDQFHDQG6LQR,QGLDQ&RQIOLFW )LQDOO\WKHUHLVDPSOHHYLGHQFHWRUHLQIRUFH5DSNLQDQG7KRPSVRQ·VWKLUG DQG ILQDO SURSRVLWLRQ WKDW VRPH JUHDW SRZHUV WU\ WR HPHUJH DV WKH SUHGRPLQDQW SRZHULQWKHLUKRPHUHJLRQ$FFRUGLQJWR0HDUVKHLPHU·VRIIHQVLYHUHDOLVWDUJXPHQW GLVFXVVHGDERYH&KLQDZLOODWWHPSWWRHPHUJHDVDUHJLRQDOKHJHPRQLQ(DVW$VLDDV
´0HNRQJ5LYHUIRXUQDWLRQSDWUROVEHJLQDIWHUDWWDFNVµ%%&1HZV'HFDYDLODEOHRQOLQHDW
KWWSZZZEEFFRXNQHZVZRUOGDVLDDFFHVVHGRQ)HE
&5DMD0RKDQ´,QGLD(\HLQJD1HZ*DWHZD\WR6RXWKHDVW$VLDµ,6$6%ULHI-DQDYDLODEOH
RQOLQH DW KWWSZZZLVDVQXVHGXVJ$WWDFKPHQWV3XEOLVKHU$WWDFKPHQW,6$6B%ULHIBBB(PDLOB ,QGLDB(\HLQJBDB1HZB*DWHZD\BWRB6RXWKHDVWB$VLDBSGIDFFHVVHGRQ)HE ´,QGLD9LHWQDPVLJQSDFWIRURLOH[SORUDWLRQLQ6RXWK&KLQD6HDµ7KH+LQGX2FW´,QGLD 9LHWQDPRLOH[SORUDWLRQGHDOPXVWEHVWRSSHGµ3HRSOH·V'DLO\2FW %HQ %ODQG DQG *LULMD 6KLYDNXPDU ´&KLQD FRQIURQWV ,QGLDQ QDY\ YHVVHOµ )LQDQFLDO 7LPHV $XJ
Summer 2012 | 481
*$1*8/<$1'3$5'(6,
LWHPHUJHVDVDJUHDWSRZHU6LPLODUO\.DQJKDVDUJXHGWKDW&KLQDZLOODWWHPSWWR UHFUHDWHWKH6LQRFHQWULFLQWHUQDWLRQDORUGHULQ(DVW$VLDDVLWHPHUJHVDJUHDWSRZHU :KHWKHUJXLGHGE\VWUXFWXUDOIDFWRUVRUKLVWRU\RUERWK &KLQD·VDWWHPSWWRHPHUJH DVWKHSUHGRPLQDQWSRZHULQ$VLDZLOOEULQJLWLQWRDFRQIOLFWZLWK,QGLDJLYHQWKH WZRSRZHUV·RYHUODSSLQJVSKHUHVRILQIOXHQFHLQ$VLD:KLOH,QGLDKDVDOZD\VEHHQ ZDU\RI&KLQDWKHUHLVJURZLQJHYLGHQFHWKDW,QGLDWRRKDVEHJXQWRZHLJKPRUH KHDYLO\LQ&KLQHVHWKUHDWSHUFHSWLRQV7KH6LQR,QGLDQULYDOU\LVQRZEHLQJSOD\HG RXWLQWKHSDQ$VLDQFRQWH[W ,Q WKLV FRQWH[W &KLQD KDV WDNHQ D QHJDWLYH YLHZ RI ,QGLD·V EXGGLQJ SDUWQHUVKLSZLWK-DSDQ,QUHFHQW\HDUV7RN\RKDVEHHQORRNLQJWRZDUGV,QGLDWR EDODQFH &KLQD·V JURZLQJ SRZHU LQ (DVW $VLD )RU H[DPSOH DV D FRQVHTXHQFH RI -DSDQHVHDQG6LQJDSRUHDQ GLSORPDF\,QGLDZDVLQFOXGHGDVDIXOOPHPEHULQWKH LQDXJXUDO(DVW$VLD6XPPLWLQ-DSDQLVDOVRDLGLQJ,QGLD·VHFRQRPLFULVHE\ VORZO\VKLIWLQJLWVHFRQRPLFLQYHVWPHQWVIURP&KLQDWR,QGLD-DSDQKDVFRPPLWWHG WR ELOOLRQ WR ,QGLD WR ERRVW LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ DQG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH DORQJ WKH VR FDOOHG 'HOKL0XPEDL ,QGXVWULDO &RUULGRU ,QGLD DQG -DSDQ DUH QRW RQO\ HQWHULQJ LQWR D VWURQJ VWUDWHJLF SDUWQHUVKLS EXW DUH DOVR VWHSSLQJ XS WKHLU GHIHQVH FRRSHUDWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ FRPELQHG PLOLWDU\ H[HUFLVHV -XVW EHIRUH HPEDUNLQJ RQ KLV WULS WR ,QGLD ODVW \HDU WKH -DSDQHVH 3ULPH 0LQLVWHU
-RKQ:*DUYHUDQG)HL/LQJ:DQJ´&KLQD·V$QWLHQFLUFOHPHQW6WUXJJOHµ$VLDQ6HFXULW\9ROXPH 1XPEHU SS ´-DSDQ&RPPLWVEQWR,QGLDIRU'HOKL0XPEDL,QGXVWULDO&RUULGRUµ,QGLD7RGD\'HF &5DMD0RKDQ´-DSDQ30OLIWVEDQRQDUPVH[SRUWVµ,QGLDQ([SUHVV'HF /L+RQJPHL´,QGLD·V ¶/RRN(DVW3ROLF\·PHDQV¶/RRNWR(QFLUFOH&KLQD·"µ3HRSOH·V'DLO\2FW 4XRWHGLQ6WHSKHQ.DXIPDQ´&OLQWRQ6D\V,QGLD·V/HDGHUVKLSLV,PSRUWDQWIRU$VLDµ-XO\ DYDLODEOHRQOLQHDW KWWSLLSGLJLWDOXVHPEDVV\JRYVWHQJOLVKDUWLFOHQHKSHWVKWPO D[]]P*8$*DFFHVVHGRQ)HE
482 | Orbis
&KLQDDQG,QGLD
VLWXDWLRQ WKDW ZLOO EH XQIDYRUDEOH WR ,QGLDµ VKRXOG DQ ´DOOLDQFHµ DLPHG DW &KLQD HPHUJHEHWZHHQ,QGLDDQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV 3URVSHFWVIRU3HDFH *LYHQ WKH UDSLGO\ JURZLQJ 6LQR,QGLDQ HFRQRPLF UHODWLRQVKLS LW PD\ EH WHPSWLQJ WR FRQFOXGH WKDW HFRQRPLF IDFWRUV PD\ OLPLW WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI D FRQIOLFW EHWZHHQ&KLQDDQG,QGLD,QGHHGWKHUHLVORQJWUHQGRIDUJXPHQWVLQLQWHUQDWLRQDO UHODWLRQV WKHRU\ DFFRUGLQJ WR ZKLFK HFRQRPLF LQWHUGHSHQGHQFH PLWLJDWHV FRQIOLFW DQGSURPRWHVSHDFH&KLQDKDVQRWRQO\HPHUJHGDV,QGLD·VVLQJOHODUJHVWWUDGLQJ SDUWQHUEXWLWLVZLGHO\H[SHFWHGWKDWWKH6LQR,QGLDQDQQXDOWUDGHZLOOUHDFK ELOOLRQ E\ VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU WKDQ WKH FXUUHQW YROXPH DPRXQWLQJ WR ELOOLRQ+RZHYHUWKLVWUDGLQJUHODWLRQVKLSLVDV\PPHWULFDV,QGLD·VWUDGHGHILFLWZLWK &KLQDLVH[SHFWHGWRUHDFKELOOLRQE\7KLVLVEHFDXVHZKLOH,QGLDLV IRUWKHPRVWSDUWHQJDJHGLQWKHH[SRUWRIUDZPDWHULDOVOLNHLURQRUHDQGFHPHQWWR &KLQD LW KDV EHFRPH KRPH WR D UDQJH RI PDQXIDFWXUHG JRRGV IURP &KLQD )XUWKHUPRUHWKHLQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\DQGSKDUPDFHXWLFDOVVHFWRUVLQ&KLQDDUH QRW IXOO\ RSHQ WR ,QGLDQ FRPSDQLHV 7KLV LV GHHPHG SUREOHPDWLF E\ WKH ,QGLDQ JRYHUQPHQWDVLWPD\KHOSRIIVHWWKHWUDGHLPEDODQFHLQWKHLUUHODWLRQVKLSEHFDXVHRI ,QGLD·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´UHDOSROLWLNW\SHYDULDEOHV³IRULQVWDQFHRQJRLQJWHUULWRULDOGLVSXWHVULYDOU\UHODWLYH FDSDELOLW\ GLVWDQFH³KDYH D PXFK VWURQJ LPSDFW RQ FRQIOLFW HVFDODWLRQµ WKDQ DQDO\VHVEDVHGPHUHO\RQWKHVWUHQJWKRIHFRQRPLFLQWHUGHSHQGHQFHPLJKWVXJJHVW 6LQFHWKH6LQR,QGLDQULYDOU\LVEHVHWZLWKDOORIWKHVHLVVXHVDQRQJRLQJWHUULWRULDO
&KHQJ5XLVKHQJ´7UHQGRI,QGLD·V'LSORPDWLF6WUDWHJ\µ&KLQD,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WXGLHV,VVXH (GZDUG'0DQVILHOG3RZHU7UDGHDQG:DU3ULQFHWRQ3ULQFHWRQ8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
1HHWD/DO´,QGLD·V7UDGH%DODQFH3UREOHPVZLWK&KLQDµ$VLD6HQWLQHO6HSWDYDLODEOHRQOLQH
DW KWWSZZZDVLDVHQWLQHOFRPLQGH[SKS"RSWLRQ FRPBFRQWHQW WDVN YLHZ LG ,WHPLG )HE ´2SHQ &KLQD PDUNHW WR ,QGLDQ ,7 DQG SKDUPD SURGXFWV 0RQWHN 6LQJK $KOXZDOLDµ 7KH (FRQRPLF 7LPHV6HSW 'DOH & &RSHODQG ´(FRQRPLF ,QWHUGHSHQGHQFH DQG :DU $ 7KHRU\ RI 7UDGH ([SHFWDWLRQVµ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6HFXULW\ 9ROXPH 1XPEHU SS 3HWHU /LHEHUPDQ ´7KH RIIHQVHGHIHQVH EDODQFH LQWHUGHSHQGHQFH DQG ZDUµ 6HFXULW\ 6WXGLHV 9ROXPH ,VVXH SS DQG .DWKHULQH%DUELHUL´(FRQRPLF,QWHUGHSHQGHQFH$3DWKWR3HDFHRUD6RXUFHRI,QWHUVWDWH&RQIOLFWµ -RXUQDORI3HDFH5HVHDUFK9ROXPH1XPEHU SS 5DSNLQ DQG7KRPSVRQ´:LOO(FRQRPLF,QWHUGHSHQGHQFH(QFRXUDJH&KLQD·V DQG,QGLD·V3HDFHIXO $VFHQW"µS
Summer 2012 | 483
*$1*8/<$1'3$5'(6,
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
6FRWW'6DJDQDQG.HQQHWK1:DOW]7KH6SUHDGRI1XFOHDU:HDSRQV$'HEDWH::1RUWRQ 2QWKLVGHEDWHLQWKH6RXWK$VLDQFRQWH[WVHH6XPLW*DQJXO\DQG63DXO.DSXU,QGLD3DNLVWDQDQGWKH %RPE'HEDWLQJ1XFOHDU6WDELOLW\LQ6RXWK$VLD1HZ
484 | Orbis
&KLQDDQG,QGLD
XQDQWLFLSDWHG GHYHORSPHQWV RU VRPH RWKHU SROLF\ UHVSRQVHV VXJJHVWHG EHORZ D GLVWLQFW SRVVLELOLW\ RI FRQIOLFW DQG WKHUHIRUH D OLPLWHG ZDU ORRPV RQ WKH KRUL]RQ EHWZHHQWKHVHWZRULVLQJSRZHU rising powers. +RZPLJKW,QGLDDQG&KLQDZDUGRIIDSRVVLEOHFRQIOLFW"6HYHUDOSRVVLEOH SDWKZD\VVXJJHVWWKHPVHOYHV$WRQHOHYHO,QGLDFRXOGVLPSO\FRQFHGHWKHJURXQG WR&KLQDDQGPDNHWKHWHUULWRULDOFRQFHVVLRQVWKDWDUHEHLQJGHPDQGHGLQDGGLWLRQ WR UHFRJQL]LQJ &KLQHVH KHJHPRQ\ LQ $VLD LQFOXGLQJ 6RXWK $VLD 7KLV RSWLRQ WKRXJK LW PD\ VWDYH RII LPPHGLDWH FRQIOLFW PLJKW DFWXDOO\ SURYH GLVDVWURXV LQ WKH PHGLXPWRORQJWHUPDVLWPD\VLPSO\HPEROGHQ&KLQDWRVHHNIXUWKHUFRQFHVVLRQV ,Q DQ\ FDVH ,QGLD·V VHOILPDJH DV D JUHDW SRZHU LQ $VLD PHDQV WKDW 1HZ 'HOKL LV XQOLNHO\ WR JR DKHDG ZLWK WKLV RSWLRQ HVSHFLDOO\ ZKHQ ,QGLD·V RZQ HFRQRP\ LV UDSLGO\JURZLQJDQGWKXVFRQWULEXWLQJWRWKHH[SDQVLRQRILWVPLOLWDU\SRZHU $VHFRQGVWUDWHJ\IRU,QGLDZRXOGEHWRTXLHWO\DOLJQZLWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV ,Q WKH 86 6WDWH 'HSDUWPHQW KDG RSHQO\ DQQRXQFHG LWV LQWHQWLRQ RI D QHZ SDUWQHUVKLS ZLWK ,QGLD ZKHQ LW VWDWHG WKDW LWV JRDO ZDV ´WR KHOS ,QGLD EHFRPH D PDMRUZRUOGSRZHULQWKHWZHQW\ILUVWFHQWXU\µ6LJQLILFDQWO\WKH6WDWH'HSDUWPHQW IXUWKHU DGGHG WKDW WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV IXOO\ XQGHUVWRRG WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV ´LQFOXGLQJ PLOLWDU\LPSOLFDWLRQVRIWKHVWDWHPHQWµ:KLOHVRPH,QGLDQVWUDWHJLVWVKDYHWDNHQ VXFK $PHULFDQ RYHUWXUHV DV VLJQV RI D EXUJHRQLQJ 86,QGLDQ DOOLDQFH LW UHPDLQV XQFOHDULIVXFKDQDOOLDQFH³HVSHFLDOO\RQHWKDWLVGLUHFWHGDW&KLQD³LVLQHLWKHURI WKHLU EHVW LQWHUHVWV ,Q DQ\ FDVH WKH VWURQJ VWUHDN RI ´VWUDWHJLF DXWRQRP\µ WKDW SHUYDGHVPXFKRI,QGLD·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·V FKURQLF SRYHUW\ DQG GRPHVWLF SROLWLFDO OLPLWDWLRQV PD\ PHDQ WKDW VXFK D VWUDWHJ\ RI LQWHUQDO EDODQFLQJ PD\QRWEHHQRXJK$IRXUWKDQGILQDOVWUDWHJ\WKDWPLJKWLQYROYHWKHHOHPHQWVRI WKH ILUVW WKUHH LV LQ DOO OLNHOLKRRG WKH RQH WKDW ,QGLD LV OLNHO\ WR SXUVXH ,W ZLOO SUREDEO\ LQYROYH LQWHUPLWWHQW DQG PLQRU FRQFHVVLRQV WR WKH 35& D JURZLQJ DOLJQPHQW ZLWK -DSDQ WKH ILWIXO H[SDQVLRQ RI QDYDO FRRSHUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG WKH VORZ DQG VWHDG\ H[SDQVLRQ RI LWV RZQ PLOLWDU\ FDSDELOLWLHV ,W PD\ further involve the pursuit of aDmore security dialogue with the IXUWKHU LQYROYHWKH SXUVXLWRI PRUHpurposeful SXUSRVHIXO VHFXULW\ GLDORJ ZLWK WKHstates VWDWHVof RI 6RXWKHDVW $VLD ZKR VKDUH ,QGLD·V DQ[LHWLHV DERXW &KLQD·V ORQJWHUP LQWHQWLRQV
´%DFNJURXQG%ULHILQJE\$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ2IILFLDOVRQ866RXWK$VLD5HODWLRQVµ2IILFHRIWKH 6SRNHVPDQ86'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWH0DUDYDLODEOHRQOLQHDW KWWSPHUOQQGXHGXDUFKLYHSGIDIJKDQLVWDQ6WDWHSGIDFFHVVHGRQ)HE
Summer 2012 | 485