- Email: [email protected]
Carbon dioxide emission and mitigation in East Asia and Thailand
Letters
highway construction, maintenance and management, accounting for 0.5% of the gross social product, while expenditures on highways in the U.S., United Kingdom and West Germany accounted for over 2% of their GNP. Increasing investment in the construction of highways and improving the condition of road surfaces will not only bring about energy savings, but also help to meet the demand for the development of the national economy and relax the pressures on the current traffic transportation.
signals, streams of vehicles and freight, traffic regulation and so on, the percentages of working trucks and actual load to truck capacity can be increased by an estimated 10% from the present levels. 7. Conclusion Due to the limitation of oil resources in China, a shortage of liquid fuels will exist for a long time. Therefore, it is extremely important to strengthen oil conservation in transportation. Increasing production of large trucks and promoting the popularization of medium-size diesel trucks and large diesel buses will lead to a positive effect on oil conservation. The popularization of large and medium-size diesel vehicles would yield positive national benefits, and is both technically and economically feasible. However, as it concerns the vehicle industry, oil-refining industry, transport enterprises and a large number of vehicle users, it will not be easy to coordinate relationships among the different departments and users. Therefore, it not only needs well-formulated policies and regulations, but also requires support with respect to national planning, taxation, bank credits and other policies.
6. Enhancing the management of highway transportation In China, management of highway transportation is backward, and the transportation market is imperfect. The percentage of working trucks of specialized transportation agencies is below 60% in China, while it is 70--90% in developed countries. The actual load to truck capacity ratio is about 65% in China, while it is 70--80% in the United Kingdom and the U.S. The average distance covered by vehicles in China is 156 km/day, compared to 230--470 km/day in the United Kingdom and the U.S. One cause of low transport efficiency in China is the small share of vehicles that belong to specialized transport agencies. In 1991, the share was only 5.2%. The fuel intensities of other vehicles were 30% higher than those of specialized transport agency vehicles. To develop a market-oriented economy, it is imperative to increase the number of private vehicles and the number of vehicles in sectors such as mining, steel, and grain. However, priority should be given to supporting the leading large and medium-size specialized transport enterprises, to improve the transport services, and to increase the efficiency of transportation. By strengthening traffic management and modernizing administration in highway transportation services, improving information service networks, and consolidating automatic control and computer management over traffic
Acknowledgments This work was supported by the Climate Change Division of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
References China National Auto Industry Corporation (CNAIC), 1991. Yearbook of China’s Auto Industry, Jilin Sci. & Tech. Publishing House. Hu Zhang-guo, 1993. ‘‘Evaluation on energy conservation in China’s highway transportation’’, ADB-assisted Project report. Liu Jing-hui, 1993. ‘‘Techno-economic analysis on replacement of gasoline with diesel in motor-vehicles’’, ADB-assisted Project report. Note 1. This article is drawn from a longer report of the same title (Report #LBID--2066) by the authors and S. Meyers, J. Sathaye, and S. Zhang of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. It was edited by S. Meyers.
Carbon dioxide emission and mitigation in East Asia and Thailand
per capita at 7.64 tonnes while the value for China was only 0.76 tonnes. However, if carbon dioxide emission per unit nominal GDP in the same year is considered, the USA emitted only 0.39 tonnes per thousand US$ (k$) while the highest value of 1.2 was recorded by Thailand [Khunumongkol, 1993] and Japan had the lowest value of 0.16. Lastly, by comparing carbon dioxide emission in tonnes per square kilometre, Japan exhibited the highest value of 712 while the Australian value of 10 was the lowest and the Thai emission per km2 was 167 tonnes. It should be noted that in 1990, the global average value of carbon dioxide emission was 1.60 t/capita and the EC (now EU) average value in the same year was 2.4 t/capita. The corresponding value for Thailand was then lower than the world and EC average values. 1.2. Carbon dioxide emission in Thailand During the period 1995-2000, the annual economic growth rate of Thailand is forecast at 7.5% and as a result, the consumption of fossil fuels is expected to increase from 40.0 to 65.9 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe)
Prida Wibulswas International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, Rangsit, Patumthani 12121, Thailand 1. Carbon dioxide emission 1.1. Global emission in 1990 Carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, is mainly generated by utilization of fossil fuels. In 1990, net carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in the USA, China, Japan, Thailand and Australia amounted to 1400, 760, 263, 85 and 80 million tonnes (Mt) respectively [OECD, 1991; Akihiro, 1992; TDRI, 1993]. As shown in Table 1, the USA generated the highest carbon dioxide emission Energy for Sustainable Development
l
Volume II No. 3
l
September 1995
55
Letters
Table 1. Net carbon dioxide emission from fossil fuels in 1990.
1993
1995
2000
Fossil fuel consumption (Mtoe)
40.0
46.6
65.9
Carbon dioxide emission (Mt)
135
165
240
Emission/capita (t)
2.31
2.75
3.76
during the same period [NEA, 1991]. Carbon dioxide emission from fossil fuels is estimated to grow from the actual value of 135 Mt in 1993 to 165 and 240 Mt in the years 1995 and 2000 respectively [Vinitnantrat et al., 1994]. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita, in 1993 and 1995 as shown in Table 2, would exceed the world and EC average values in 1990 respectively. By the year 2000, carbon dioxide emission per unit nominal GDP in Thailand will still be higher than that of USA in 1990. However, it is now generally accepted that the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) GDP reflects the value of personal income better than the nominal GDP. If the emission is based upon PPP GDP, the emission index for Thailand in the year 1993 would be reduced by a factor of about 2 and become lower than that of USA in 1990. The emission per unit PPP GDP seems to be fairer to developing countries than the emission per unit nominal GDP. In December 1994, the Government of Thailand ratified the UN Framework Convention on Global Climate Change. The analysis in Table 2 implies that Thailand has to be more serious about the mitigation of greenhouse gas emission, especially that of carbon dioxide.
Emission/nom. GDP (t/k$)
1.21
1.15
0.65
2. Energy conservation
Emission/PPP GDP (t/k$)
0.41
0.40
0.38
Emission/area (t/km2)
965
324
472
Australia China Japan USA Thailand Total emission (Mt)
80
760
263
1400
85
Emission/capita (t)
4.68
0.76
3.04
7.64
1.51
Emission/nom. GDP (t/k$)
0.28
1.10
0.16
0.39
1.20
10
80
712
151
167
Emission/area (t/km2)
Table 2. Growth of carbon dioxide emission from fossil fuels in Thailand.
2.1. Conservation of fossil fuels Oil, natural gas and coal have been the main sources of energy for Thailand and the East Asian region in general. Power generation has also relied heavily on these fossil fuels as primary energy sources. Table 3 compares contributions, in percentages, of the fossil fuels to total energy supplies and to power generating capacities in Korea [Sook, 1993], Philippines [Labanan-Garcia, 1994], Taiwan [Young et al., 1993], and Thailand [DEDP, 1993; EGAT, 1993] in 1992. It has been generally agreed that energy conservation is at present the best measure for carbon dioxide emission mitigation as it also helps reduce the cost of energy to the economy. In 1992, Thailand enacted the Energy Conservation Promotion Law and consequently an annual fund of 60 M$ (million US dollars) was earmarked by the government in 1993 to promote energy conservation. For many countries, including those given in Table 3, another benefit of energy conservation is the saving of foreign exchange used to import fossil fuels. 2.2. Demand side management (DSM) For electricity conservation and CO2 emission mitigation, DSM is a very effective measure. Several countries in the region have already developed ambitious DSM plans. From Table 3 it emerges that fossil fuels contribute more to the power generating capacity in Thailand than they do in other countries. The total installed power generating capacity in 1995 is about 15,000 MWe. Since 1991, the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand has been implementing a DSM plan with an initial fund of 190 M$ to reduce its power generating capacity and electrical energy [EGAT, 1992] as shown in Table 4. If the DSM plan reaches its target in the year 2006, the total power generating capacity would be re-
Table 3. Percentage contributions of fossil fuels to total energy supply and to power generating capacity in 1992.
Total energy supply
Power generating capacity
Korea
86
58
Philippines
NA
59
Taiwan
83
33
Thailand
67
73
NA = Not available
Table 4. Reductions under DSM plans for Thailand and Indonesia. 1995
1997
2000
2001
2006
Power generating capacity (MW e)
--
311
--
1,641 3,526
Electrical energy (GWh)
--
1,826
--
3,846 9,670
Power generating capacity (MW e)
103
161
408
--
--
Electrical energy (GWh)
613
949
2,476
--
--
Thailand
Indonesia, Java-Bali system
56
Energy for Sustainable Development
l
Volume II No. 3
l
September 1995
Letters
Table 5. Biomass supply and gross CO2 emission
duced from 25,371 to 21,845 MWe and the annual growth in power demand should be reduced from 1,200 MWe to about 800 MWe. A DSM plan for the residential sector of Indonesia [Marbun, 1994], as shown in Table 4, is rather impressive. By the year 2000, 408 MWe of generating capacity or 2,476 GWh of electrical energy would be saved in the Java-Bali system alone. Amounts of CO2 emission mitigation by DSM can be quite substantial. A study shows that a DSM plan proposed for Korea [Kim, 1993] would reduce CO2 emissions by 121 and 158 Mt in the years 2000 and 2010 respectively. 2.3. Efficiency in transport sector In most countries in the region, proportions of fuels consumed by the transport sector are quite large in comparison to those for other economic sectors. In 1992, the Thai transport sector accounted for 57.4% of the total demand for petroleum products in the country. As a result, the contribution to carbon dioxide emission from the transport sector is highly significant. For example, the transport sector in Australia and Indonesia contributed 23 and 26% respectively to the energy-use CO2 emission in 1990 while the world average contribution was 19% in the same year [BTCE, 1994]. Taiwan and Thailand contributed 18% in 1992 [Young, 1993] and 30% in 1991 [Khunumongkol, 1993] respectively. In 1995, the transport sector in Korea is predicted to contribute 19% to the total CO2 emission from energy use. The condition of traffic in Bangkok is now considered the worst in the world. More than 500 M$ worth of fuels is wasted annually as a result of the traffic congestion in Bangkok in addition to unnecessary CO2 emission. A study on an electrified mass transit project under construction which will cover a total distance of 20 km in Bangkok indicates that 78 million passenger car trips would be avoided in the year 2006 [Wangwacharakul, 1993] and this would result in a reduction of CO2 emission by 0.56 Mt from one mass transit project alone.
in Thailand in 1993.
Supply
Fuelwood
CO2 emission (Mt)
40.1
0,530
77.9
1.7
0.395
2.5
Bagasse
11.7
0.225
9.7
Total
52.9
--
90.1
Paddy husk
duction. However, these biomass resources have a very high moisture content. Better conversion technologies are still required to enhance their utilization. As these crops and sugar-cane are replanted annually, their net CO2 emissions can be assumed to be zero. The net CO2 emission from fuelwood utilization is more complicated to assess as trees are partly planted for fuel and other industrial uses and Thailand still loses more than 200,000 ha of forests annually. 2.2. Dendrothermal power systems The plantation of fast-growing trees such as acacia and eucalyptus for wood-fired power generation has received a great deal of interest in several countries in the region. The Philippines has installed five dendrothermal power systems with a total capacity of about 17 MWe with acacia chosen for free plantation [Ner, 1988]. The systems have faced some management and technical difficulties and the dendrothermal programme in the Philippines has at present no expansion plan. A Thai feasibility study [Wibulswas, 1990] indicated that a 25 MWe dendrothermal power system fired with Eucalyptus camaldulensis would generate electricity at a cost of about US¢ 5.1 per kWh. A project proposed by the Department of Energy Development recommended 83 dendrothermal power systems to generate 2,000 MWe [NEA, 1987]. The project would involve very large plantation areas for eucalyptus of about 600,000 ha. Another feasibility study for dendrothermal power systems in New Zealand was based upon Pinus radiata as fuel [Sims, 1994]. It was reported that a 10 MWe system would be more cost-effective than a 3 MWe system and the cost of electricity generation would vary from 4.5 to 6.5 NZ¢/kWh.
2. Biomass 2.1. Supply and CO 2 emission In most Asian developing countries, biomass accounts for large proportions of energy supplies. For example, 40% and 33% of the total energy supplies in Indonesia [Saragih et al., 1991] and Thailand [DEDP, 1993] came from biomass in 1990. Fuelwood has the largest share in supplies among various kinds of biomass. In 1993, fuelwood, paddy husk and bagasse accounted for 25.9, 1.0 and 3.3% of the total energy supply to Thailand [DEDP, 1993]. Bagasse and paddy husk generate about 800 MW of power for sugar and rice mills in Thailand [Wibulswas, 1995]. The gross CO2 emission from biomass utilization as shown in Table 5 was 90.1 Mt to which fuelwood alone contributed 77.9 Mt [Wibulswas, 1995]. Agricultural wastes in Thailand, including sugar-cane trash, straw, cassava and mung-bean stalks, yield about 50 Mt per annum and thus have potential for energy proEnergy for Sustainable Development
Carbon fraction
(Mt)
3. Other options for greenhouse gas mitigation 3.1. Hydro energy resources The contribution of hydro energy resources to meeting energy requirements is rather small for most countries in this region. In Malaysia and Thailand, hydro energy resources contributed only 6.9% in 1989 [Arif, 1991] and 1.5% in 1993 [DEDP, 1993] respectively. The development of large hydro energy resources has often been hampered by environmental issues and lack of public acceptance. However, as hydro energy resources are clean and renewable, their utilization should still be considered l
Volume II No. 3
l
September 1995
57
Letters
a good option to mitigate CO2 emissions. Regional co-operation is facilitating the development of hydro energy resources exists in the South-East Asian peninsula. The installed hydro power capacity in Laos is 194 MWe. As its peak load is only 60 MWe, the rest is exported to Thailand [Poshyananda, 1994]. The Laotian government has accorded permission to at least four projects promoted by private investors to generate 1,560 MWe from hydro energy resources, most of which will be exported to Thailand. It is also feasible to further develop 3,000 MWe in Laos for export. Several hydro energy sites on the border rivers of Thailand have the potential to be jointly developed between Thailand and neighbouring countries [Poshyananda, 1994]. On the Burmese border, the Salween river has a potential of 6,000 MWe. On the Laotian and Cambodian borders, the Mekong river has potential of at least 3,000 MWe. In addition, the combined hydro-power potential of the Mekong river inside Laos and Cambodia is greater than 10,000 MWe . The Mekong River Commission has been recently formed by Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam to initially develop about 13,000 MW of power. 3.2. Natural gas In general, no sulphur dioxide is generated from the combustion of natural gas. Lignite, which is used for power generation in several countries, normally contains high amounts of moisture, ash and sulphur. Sulphur dioxide emission has had a detrimental impact on health and the environment. For example, in October 1992, sulphur dioxide emission from a large lignite-fired power complex in the north of Thailand caused respiratory illness in more than 500 people in one day [Wibulswas et al., 1993]. Damage to crops and livestock were also reported. In comparison to coal-fired or oil-fired power plants, combined-cycle plants which run on natural gas generate electricity with about 50% less CO2 emission. By 1998, the production of natural gas in Thailand at 40 M m3 per day [PAT, 1994] will not be sufficient to satisfy the demand for power generation. The quantity of natural gas imported from Myanmar and from a joint development area with Malaysia will go up to 24 M m3 per day by 2002. Joint development programmes on natural gas production with Cambodia and Vietnam are being discussed. The import of liquefied natural gas from the Middle East is also being considered. 3.3. Nuclear power As the population of Asia grows rapidly, increases in power demand cause ever more widespread use of fossil fuels, particularly coal and lignite. The impact on environment of emissions such as SOx, NOx and CO2 is becoming more serious. The long-term accumulation of CO2 is creating concerns about global warming. In Asia, Japan and Korea have had long experience in the harnessing of nuclear power. Japan operates 46 nuclear power stations and has nine power stations under construction [JAPC, 1994]. Korea operates nine nuclear power stations and is designing an indigenous nuclear power plant herself. Vietnam is considering nuclear power as an option after the year 2015 to ensure security of 58
Energy for Sustainable Development
power supply [Tu, 1993] and plans to co-operate with Korea on nuclear power development. Even with very large reserves of oil, natural gas and coal, Indonesia still has a long-term plan to generate 12,600 MWe by nuclear power in the year 2019 [Ahimsa, 1995]. Australia probably has the largest uranium reserves in the world. As the transport sector is responsible for a large contribution to carbon dioxide emission, the use of electric cars and implemantation of electrified mass transit systems in major cities like Bangkok would considerably reduce carbon dioxide and other air pollutants if electricity is generated by nuclear energy. With the expertise and experience in nuclear power generation of several countries and the availability of uranium in the region, nuclear power seems to be a sensible option for mitigation of CO2 and other air pollutants for the immediate decades ahead, until the technologies of the alternative non-polluting and renewable energy resources have been sufficiently developed and implemented. The main barriers to the practical use of nuclear power are public acceptance and radioactive waste management. 4. Conclusions As economic growth and population in the region continuously increase, the demand for fossil fuels is also increasing and consequently CO2 mitigation to reduce global warming seems more urgent. A mix of suitable indices for greenhouse gas emission such as emission per capita, emission per unit of PPP GDP, etc., should be thoroughly discussed for worldwide acceptance. At present, energy conservation is the most effective and economical measure for greenhouse gas emission mitigation. Thailand and several countries in the region have already implemented demand-side management to reduce greenhouse gas emission from electricity generation and to avoid the capital investment on new power stations. The availability of large natural gas reserves in the region offers a medium-term solution for greenhouse gas emission mitigation as combined-cycle power plants fired by natural gas produce much less CO2 emission than those fired by oil or coal. Indigenous natural gas in Thailand has been used mainly for electricity generation by combined-cycle power plants. Moreover, Thailand will soon import natural gas from her neighbours to supplement indigenous resources. Better utilization of renewable energy sources such as biomass and hydro energy should be a good non-fossil fuel option. Agricultural wastes and fast-growing trees have been increasingly utilized as biomass fuels in Thailand. Research and development efforts on renewable energy resources should be strongly and continuously promoted at national and regional levels. Large-scale hydro power development in the South-East Asian peninsula has further expansion potential and should be soon realized through the Mekong River Commission. As a long-term policy, nuclear power seems to be a logical non-fossil fuel option for electricity generation in Thailand. With expertise, experience and uranium rel
Volume II No. 3
l
September 1995
Letters
National Energy Administration, 1991. Trend of energy utilization in economic sectors of Thailand: 1991-2001, Ministry of Science, Technology and Energy, Bangkok. Ner, J., 1988. ‘‘Dendro-thermal power plants’’, Proc. of ASEAN Workshop on Thermal Conversion of Biomass, pp. 210-217, Head Yai. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 1991. ‘‘Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks’’, OECD Experts Meeting, Paris. Petroleum Authority of Thailand, 1994. ‘‘PTT plan for 1995-1999’’, Report for Board of Directors, Bangkok. Poshyananda, S., 1994. ‘‘Transnational power development’’, Proc. of Techno Indochina, pp. 266-275, UN Conference Centre, Bangkok. Saragih, J., and Herwanto, S., 1991. ‘‘New and renewable sources of energy in Indonesia’’, Proc. of Asia Energy ’91, ESCAP, Bangkok. Sims, R.E.H., 1994, ‘‘The feasibility of wood-fired power plant’’, Proc. of 5th ASEAN Conference on Energy Technology, Vol. I, pp. 252-263, ASEAN SCNCER, Bangkok. Sook, H., 1993. ‘‘Electric power development and environmental considerations’’, Proc. of 5th International Energy Conference, Energex ’93, Vol. VI, pp. 218-225, Seoul. Thailand Development Research Institute, 1993. ‘‘Preparation of a national strategy on global climate change: Thailand’’, Final report to the Government of Thailand, Bangkok. Tu, N.D., 1995. ‘‘Perspectives of Vietnam electric power development’’, 28th JAIF Annual Conference, Tokyo. Vinitnantrat, S., Asvapisit, S., Wangwath, R., and Wibulswas, P., 1994. ‘‘Carbon dioxide emission from combustion of fuels in Thailand’’, Proc. of 5th ASEAN Conference on Energy Technology, Vol. II, pp. 177-182, ASEAN SCNCER, Bangkok. Wangwacharakul, V., 1993. ‘‘Reducing CO2 emission in Thailand’’, Quarterly Environment Journal, Thailand Environment Institute, Vol. I(1), Bangkok. Wibulswas, P., and Towprayoon, S., 1993. ‘‘Sulphur dioxide emission from power stations and oil refineries in Thailand’’, Proc. of Conference on Regional Environment and Climate Change in East Asia, pp. 275-277, Taipei. Wibulswas, P., 1995. ‘‘Solid fuels and related problems in Thailand’’, J. of Royal Institute of Thailand, Vol. 19, Bangkok. Wibulswas, P., Srichai, S., and Tanticharoen, M., 1990. ‘‘Feasibility of dendro-thermal power systems’’, Proc. of Workshop on Decentralized Power Production, pp. 103109, AIT, Bangkok. Young, R.T., Huang, J.I., and Chu, Y.H., 1993. ‘‘Energy-related carbon dioxide emission inventory of Taiwan’’, Proc. of International Conference on Regional Environment and Climate Change in East Asia, pp. 402-407, Taipei.
sources in developed countries in the region, harnessing of nuclear power in developing countries should be possible and highly effective for greenhouse gas mitigation in the future. References Ahimsa, D., 1995, ‘‘National energy policy, prospect of nuclear power and nuclear strategy in Indonesia’’, 28th JAIF Annual Conference, Tokyo. Akihiro, A., 1992. Global warming and economic growth-modeling in Japan, Center for Global Environmental Studies, Environmental Agency of Japan, pp. 86-87. Arif, J.M., 1992. ‘‘Development of renewable energy resources in Malaysia’’, Proc. of Asia Energy ’92, ESCAP, Bangkok. Bureau of Transport and Communication Economics, 1994. Australia Transport Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra. Department of Energy Development and Promotion, 1993. Thailand Energy Situation, Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment, Bangkok. Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, 1993. EGAT Power Development Plan, Nontburi. Japan Atomic Power Company, 1994. ‘‘Steady development of nuclear power generation’’, pp. 7-8, Tokai. Khunumongkol, P., 1993. ‘‘Energy consumption in Thailand and greenhouse gas emissions’’, Quarterly Environment Journal, Vol. 1(1), pp. 11-20, Thailand Environmental Institute, Bangkok. Kim, J.D., 1993. ‘‘The cost-effectiveness of DSM options in abating CO2 emission in Korea’’, Proc. of 5th International Energy Conference, Energex ’93, Vol. VI, pp. 96-103, Seoul. Labanan-Garcia, L.G., 1994. ‘‘The power development program of the national power corporation’’, Proc. of 5th ASEAN Conference on Energy Technology, Vol. I, p. 28, ASEAN SCNCER, Bangkok. Narbun, B., 1994. ‘‘Potential programmes of demand-side management in the residential sector in Indonesia’’, Proc. of 5th ASEAN Conference on Energy Technology, Vol. I, pp. 34-43, ASEAN SCNCER, Bangkok. National Energy Administration, 1987. ‘‘Dendro-thermal power plants planned: Thailand’’, RERIC News, Vol. 10(4), p. 5, AlT, Bangkok.
Readers’ reactions welcomed Energy for Sustainable Development would appreciate correspondence from readers regarding the contents of the journal and related subjects. The aim of the journal is to achieve the widest possible dissemination of information pertaining to renewable sources of energy, energy efficiency, the shaping of energy policy, and energy devices, with a focus on solving the energy problems of developing countries. Readers who would like to contribute to this dissemination effort by making brief comments on material that appears in the journal, or by drawing other readers’ and the editors’ attention to interesting work and developments in the field of energy would be aiding the work of dissemination. Please send your commentative or informative letters to: ‘‘Correspondence’’ c/o the Associate Editor Energy for Sustainable Development 25/5, Borebank Road Benson Town Bangalore-560 046 India Fax: +91 80 554 8426 e-mail: [email protected] Energy for Sustainable Development
l
Volume II No. 3
l
September 1995
59
highway construction, maintenance and management, accounting for 0.5% of the gross social product, while expenditures on highways in the U.S., United Kingdom and West Germany accounted for over 2% of their GNP. Increasing investment in the construction of highways and improving the condition of road surfaces will not only bring about energy savings, but also help to meet the demand for the development of the national economy and relax the pressures on the current traffic transportation.
signals, streams of vehicles and freight, traffic regulation and so on, the percentages of working trucks and actual load to truck capacity can be increased by an estimated 10% from the present levels. 7. Conclusion Due to the limitation of oil resources in China, a shortage of liquid fuels will exist for a long time. Therefore, it is extremely important to strengthen oil conservation in transportation. Increasing production of large trucks and promoting the popularization of medium-size diesel trucks and large diesel buses will lead to a positive effect on oil conservation. The popularization of large and medium-size diesel vehicles would yield positive national benefits, and is both technically and economically feasible. However, as it concerns the vehicle industry, oil-refining industry, transport enterprises and a large number of vehicle users, it will not be easy to coordinate relationships among the different departments and users. Therefore, it not only needs well-formulated policies and regulations, but also requires support with respect to national planning, taxation, bank credits and other policies.
6. Enhancing the management of highway transportation In China, management of highway transportation is backward, and the transportation market is imperfect. The percentage of working trucks of specialized transportation agencies is below 60% in China, while it is 70--90% in developed countries. The actual load to truck capacity ratio is about 65% in China, while it is 70--80% in the United Kingdom and the U.S. The average distance covered by vehicles in China is 156 km/day, compared to 230--470 km/day in the United Kingdom and the U.S. One cause of low transport efficiency in China is the small share of vehicles that belong to specialized transport agencies. In 1991, the share was only 5.2%. The fuel intensities of other vehicles were 30% higher than those of specialized transport agency vehicles. To develop a market-oriented economy, it is imperative to increase the number of private vehicles and the number of vehicles in sectors such as mining, steel, and grain. However, priority should be given to supporting the leading large and medium-size specialized transport enterprises, to improve the transport services, and to increase the efficiency of transportation. By strengthening traffic management and modernizing administration in highway transportation services, improving information service networks, and consolidating automatic control and computer management over traffic
Acknowledgments This work was supported by the Climate Change Division of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
References China National Auto Industry Corporation (CNAIC), 1991. Yearbook of China’s Auto Industry, Jilin Sci. & Tech. Publishing House. Hu Zhang-guo, 1993. ‘‘Evaluation on energy conservation in China’s highway transportation’’, ADB-assisted Project report. Liu Jing-hui, 1993. ‘‘Techno-economic analysis on replacement of gasoline with diesel in motor-vehicles’’, ADB-assisted Project report. Note 1. This article is drawn from a longer report of the same title (Report #LBID--2066) by the authors and S. Meyers, J. Sathaye, and S. Zhang of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. It was edited by S. Meyers.
Carbon dioxide emission and mitigation in East Asia and Thailand
per capita at 7.64 tonnes while the value for China was only 0.76 tonnes. However, if carbon dioxide emission per unit nominal GDP in the same year is considered, the USA emitted only 0.39 tonnes per thousand US$ (k$) while the highest value of 1.2 was recorded by Thailand [Khunumongkol, 1993] and Japan had the lowest value of 0.16. Lastly, by comparing carbon dioxide emission in tonnes per square kilometre, Japan exhibited the highest value of 712 while the Australian value of 10 was the lowest and the Thai emission per km2 was 167 tonnes. It should be noted that in 1990, the global average value of carbon dioxide emission was 1.60 t/capita and the EC (now EU) average value in the same year was 2.4 t/capita. The corresponding value for Thailand was then lower than the world and EC average values. 1.2. Carbon dioxide emission in Thailand During the period 1995-2000, the annual economic growth rate of Thailand is forecast at 7.5% and as a result, the consumption of fossil fuels is expected to increase from 40.0 to 65.9 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe)
Prida Wibulswas International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, Rangsit, Patumthani 12121, Thailand 1. Carbon dioxide emission 1.1. Global emission in 1990 Carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, is mainly generated by utilization of fossil fuels. In 1990, net carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in the USA, China, Japan, Thailand and Australia amounted to 1400, 760, 263, 85 and 80 million tonnes (Mt) respectively [OECD, 1991; Akihiro, 1992; TDRI, 1993]. As shown in Table 1, the USA generated the highest carbon dioxide emission Energy for Sustainable Development
l
Volume II No. 3
l
September 1995
55
Letters
Table 1. Net carbon dioxide emission from fossil fuels in 1990.
1993
1995
2000
Fossil fuel consumption (Mtoe)
40.0
46.6
65.9
Carbon dioxide emission (Mt)
135
165
240
Emission/capita (t)
2.31
2.75
3.76
during the same period [NEA, 1991]. Carbon dioxide emission from fossil fuels is estimated to grow from the actual value of 135 Mt in 1993 to 165 and 240 Mt in the years 1995 and 2000 respectively [Vinitnantrat et al., 1994]. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita, in 1993 and 1995 as shown in Table 2, would exceed the world and EC average values in 1990 respectively. By the year 2000, carbon dioxide emission per unit nominal GDP in Thailand will still be higher than that of USA in 1990. However, it is now generally accepted that the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) GDP reflects the value of personal income better than the nominal GDP. If the emission is based upon PPP GDP, the emission index for Thailand in the year 1993 would be reduced by a factor of about 2 and become lower than that of USA in 1990. The emission per unit PPP GDP seems to be fairer to developing countries than the emission per unit nominal GDP. In December 1994, the Government of Thailand ratified the UN Framework Convention on Global Climate Change. The analysis in Table 2 implies that Thailand has to be more serious about the mitigation of greenhouse gas emission, especially that of carbon dioxide.
Emission/nom. GDP (t/k$)
1.21
1.15
0.65
2. Energy conservation
Emission/PPP GDP (t/k$)
0.41
0.40
0.38
Emission/area (t/km2)
965
324
472
Australia China Japan USA Thailand Total emission (Mt)
80
760
263
1400
85
Emission/capita (t)
4.68
0.76
3.04
7.64
1.51
Emission/nom. GDP (t/k$)
0.28
1.10
0.16
0.39
1.20
10
80
712
151
167
Emission/area (t/km2)
Table 2. Growth of carbon dioxide emission from fossil fuels in Thailand.
2.1. Conservation of fossil fuels Oil, natural gas and coal have been the main sources of energy for Thailand and the East Asian region in general. Power generation has also relied heavily on these fossil fuels as primary energy sources. Table 3 compares contributions, in percentages, of the fossil fuels to total energy supplies and to power generating capacities in Korea [Sook, 1993], Philippines [Labanan-Garcia, 1994], Taiwan [Young et al., 1993], and Thailand [DEDP, 1993; EGAT, 1993] in 1992. It has been generally agreed that energy conservation is at present the best measure for carbon dioxide emission mitigation as it also helps reduce the cost of energy to the economy. In 1992, Thailand enacted the Energy Conservation Promotion Law and consequently an annual fund of 60 M$ (million US dollars) was earmarked by the government in 1993 to promote energy conservation. For many countries, including those given in Table 3, another benefit of energy conservation is the saving of foreign exchange used to import fossil fuels. 2.2. Demand side management (DSM) For electricity conservation and CO2 emission mitigation, DSM is a very effective measure. Several countries in the region have already developed ambitious DSM plans. From Table 3 it emerges that fossil fuels contribute more to the power generating capacity in Thailand than they do in other countries. The total installed power generating capacity in 1995 is about 15,000 MWe. Since 1991, the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand has been implementing a DSM plan with an initial fund of 190 M$ to reduce its power generating capacity and electrical energy [EGAT, 1992] as shown in Table 4. If the DSM plan reaches its target in the year 2006, the total power generating capacity would be re-
Table 3. Percentage contributions of fossil fuels to total energy supply and to power generating capacity in 1992.
Total energy supply
Power generating capacity
Korea
86
58
Philippines
NA
59
Taiwan
83
33
Thailand
67
73
NA = Not available
Table 4. Reductions under DSM plans for Thailand and Indonesia. 1995
1997
2000
2001
2006
Power generating capacity (MW e)
--
311
--
1,641 3,526
Electrical energy (GWh)
--
1,826
--
3,846 9,670
Power generating capacity (MW e)
103
161
408
--
--
Electrical energy (GWh)
613
949
2,476
--
--
Thailand
Indonesia, Java-Bali system
56
Energy for Sustainable Development
l
Volume II No. 3
l
September 1995
Letters
Table 5. Biomass supply and gross CO2 emission
duced from 25,371 to 21,845 MWe and the annual growth in power demand should be reduced from 1,200 MWe to about 800 MWe. A DSM plan for the residential sector of Indonesia [Marbun, 1994], as shown in Table 4, is rather impressive. By the year 2000, 408 MWe of generating capacity or 2,476 GWh of electrical energy would be saved in the Java-Bali system alone. Amounts of CO2 emission mitigation by DSM can be quite substantial. A study shows that a DSM plan proposed for Korea [Kim, 1993] would reduce CO2 emissions by 121 and 158 Mt in the years 2000 and 2010 respectively. 2.3. Efficiency in transport sector In most countries in the region, proportions of fuels consumed by the transport sector are quite large in comparison to those for other economic sectors. In 1992, the Thai transport sector accounted for 57.4% of the total demand for petroleum products in the country. As a result, the contribution to carbon dioxide emission from the transport sector is highly significant. For example, the transport sector in Australia and Indonesia contributed 23 and 26% respectively to the energy-use CO2 emission in 1990 while the world average contribution was 19% in the same year [BTCE, 1994]. Taiwan and Thailand contributed 18% in 1992 [Young, 1993] and 30% in 1991 [Khunumongkol, 1993] respectively. In 1995, the transport sector in Korea is predicted to contribute 19% to the total CO2 emission from energy use. The condition of traffic in Bangkok is now considered the worst in the world. More than 500 M$ worth of fuels is wasted annually as a result of the traffic congestion in Bangkok in addition to unnecessary CO2 emission. A study on an electrified mass transit project under construction which will cover a total distance of 20 km in Bangkok indicates that 78 million passenger car trips would be avoided in the year 2006 [Wangwacharakul, 1993] and this would result in a reduction of CO2 emission by 0.56 Mt from one mass transit project alone.
in Thailand in 1993.
Supply
Fuelwood
CO2 emission (Mt)
40.1
0,530
77.9
1.7
0.395
2.5
Bagasse
11.7
0.225
9.7
Total
52.9
--
90.1
Paddy husk
duction. However, these biomass resources have a very high moisture content. Better conversion technologies are still required to enhance their utilization. As these crops and sugar-cane are replanted annually, their net CO2 emissions can be assumed to be zero. The net CO2 emission from fuelwood utilization is more complicated to assess as trees are partly planted for fuel and other industrial uses and Thailand still loses more than 200,000 ha of forests annually. 2.2. Dendrothermal power systems The plantation of fast-growing trees such as acacia and eucalyptus for wood-fired power generation has received a great deal of interest in several countries in the region. The Philippines has installed five dendrothermal power systems with a total capacity of about 17 MWe with acacia chosen for free plantation [Ner, 1988]. The systems have faced some management and technical difficulties and the dendrothermal programme in the Philippines has at present no expansion plan. A Thai feasibility study [Wibulswas, 1990] indicated that a 25 MWe dendrothermal power system fired with Eucalyptus camaldulensis would generate electricity at a cost of about US¢ 5.1 per kWh. A project proposed by the Department of Energy Development recommended 83 dendrothermal power systems to generate 2,000 MWe [NEA, 1987]. The project would involve very large plantation areas for eucalyptus of about 600,000 ha. Another feasibility study for dendrothermal power systems in New Zealand was based upon Pinus radiata as fuel [Sims, 1994]. It was reported that a 10 MWe system would be more cost-effective than a 3 MWe system and the cost of electricity generation would vary from 4.5 to 6.5 NZ¢/kWh.
2. Biomass 2.1. Supply and CO 2 emission In most Asian developing countries, biomass accounts for large proportions of energy supplies. For example, 40% and 33% of the total energy supplies in Indonesia [Saragih et al., 1991] and Thailand [DEDP, 1993] came from biomass in 1990. Fuelwood has the largest share in supplies among various kinds of biomass. In 1993, fuelwood, paddy husk and bagasse accounted for 25.9, 1.0 and 3.3% of the total energy supply to Thailand [DEDP, 1993]. Bagasse and paddy husk generate about 800 MW of power for sugar and rice mills in Thailand [Wibulswas, 1995]. The gross CO2 emission from biomass utilization as shown in Table 5 was 90.1 Mt to which fuelwood alone contributed 77.9 Mt [Wibulswas, 1995]. Agricultural wastes in Thailand, including sugar-cane trash, straw, cassava and mung-bean stalks, yield about 50 Mt per annum and thus have potential for energy proEnergy for Sustainable Development
Carbon fraction
(Mt)
3. Other options for greenhouse gas mitigation 3.1. Hydro energy resources The contribution of hydro energy resources to meeting energy requirements is rather small for most countries in this region. In Malaysia and Thailand, hydro energy resources contributed only 6.9% in 1989 [Arif, 1991] and 1.5% in 1993 [DEDP, 1993] respectively. The development of large hydro energy resources has often been hampered by environmental issues and lack of public acceptance. However, as hydro energy resources are clean and renewable, their utilization should still be considered l
Volume II No. 3
l
September 1995
57
Letters
a good option to mitigate CO2 emissions. Regional co-operation is facilitating the development of hydro energy resources exists in the South-East Asian peninsula. The installed hydro power capacity in Laos is 194 MWe. As its peak load is only 60 MWe, the rest is exported to Thailand [Poshyananda, 1994]. The Laotian government has accorded permission to at least four projects promoted by private investors to generate 1,560 MWe from hydro energy resources, most of which will be exported to Thailand. It is also feasible to further develop 3,000 MWe in Laos for export. Several hydro energy sites on the border rivers of Thailand have the potential to be jointly developed between Thailand and neighbouring countries [Poshyananda, 1994]. On the Burmese border, the Salween river has a potential of 6,000 MWe. On the Laotian and Cambodian borders, the Mekong river has potential of at least 3,000 MWe. In addition, the combined hydro-power potential of the Mekong river inside Laos and Cambodia is greater than 10,000 MWe . The Mekong River Commission has been recently formed by Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam to initially develop about 13,000 MW of power. 3.2. Natural gas In general, no sulphur dioxide is generated from the combustion of natural gas. Lignite, which is used for power generation in several countries, normally contains high amounts of moisture, ash and sulphur. Sulphur dioxide emission has had a detrimental impact on health and the environment. For example, in October 1992, sulphur dioxide emission from a large lignite-fired power complex in the north of Thailand caused respiratory illness in more than 500 people in one day [Wibulswas et al., 1993]. Damage to crops and livestock were also reported. In comparison to coal-fired or oil-fired power plants, combined-cycle plants which run on natural gas generate electricity with about 50% less CO2 emission. By 1998, the production of natural gas in Thailand at 40 M m3 per day [PAT, 1994] will not be sufficient to satisfy the demand for power generation. The quantity of natural gas imported from Myanmar and from a joint development area with Malaysia will go up to 24 M m3 per day by 2002. Joint development programmes on natural gas production with Cambodia and Vietnam are being discussed. The import of liquefied natural gas from the Middle East is also being considered. 3.3. Nuclear power As the population of Asia grows rapidly, increases in power demand cause ever more widespread use of fossil fuels, particularly coal and lignite. The impact on environment of emissions such as SOx, NOx and CO2 is becoming more serious. The long-term accumulation of CO2 is creating concerns about global warming. In Asia, Japan and Korea have had long experience in the harnessing of nuclear power. Japan operates 46 nuclear power stations and has nine power stations under construction [JAPC, 1994]. Korea operates nine nuclear power stations and is designing an indigenous nuclear power plant herself. Vietnam is considering nuclear power as an option after the year 2015 to ensure security of 58
Energy for Sustainable Development
power supply [Tu, 1993] and plans to co-operate with Korea on nuclear power development. Even with very large reserves of oil, natural gas and coal, Indonesia still has a long-term plan to generate 12,600 MWe by nuclear power in the year 2019 [Ahimsa, 1995]. Australia probably has the largest uranium reserves in the world. As the transport sector is responsible for a large contribution to carbon dioxide emission, the use of electric cars and implemantation of electrified mass transit systems in major cities like Bangkok would considerably reduce carbon dioxide and other air pollutants if electricity is generated by nuclear energy. With the expertise and experience in nuclear power generation of several countries and the availability of uranium in the region, nuclear power seems to be a sensible option for mitigation of CO2 and other air pollutants for the immediate decades ahead, until the technologies of the alternative non-polluting and renewable energy resources have been sufficiently developed and implemented. The main barriers to the practical use of nuclear power are public acceptance and radioactive waste management. 4. Conclusions As economic growth and population in the region continuously increase, the demand for fossil fuels is also increasing and consequently CO2 mitigation to reduce global warming seems more urgent. A mix of suitable indices for greenhouse gas emission such as emission per capita, emission per unit of PPP GDP, etc., should be thoroughly discussed for worldwide acceptance. At present, energy conservation is the most effective and economical measure for greenhouse gas emission mitigation. Thailand and several countries in the region have already implemented demand-side management to reduce greenhouse gas emission from electricity generation and to avoid the capital investment on new power stations. The availability of large natural gas reserves in the region offers a medium-term solution for greenhouse gas emission mitigation as combined-cycle power plants fired by natural gas produce much less CO2 emission than those fired by oil or coal. Indigenous natural gas in Thailand has been used mainly for electricity generation by combined-cycle power plants. Moreover, Thailand will soon import natural gas from her neighbours to supplement indigenous resources. Better utilization of renewable energy sources such as biomass and hydro energy should be a good non-fossil fuel option. Agricultural wastes and fast-growing trees have been increasingly utilized as biomass fuels in Thailand. Research and development efforts on renewable energy resources should be strongly and continuously promoted at national and regional levels. Large-scale hydro power development in the South-East Asian peninsula has further expansion potential and should be soon realized through the Mekong River Commission. As a long-term policy, nuclear power seems to be a logical non-fossil fuel option for electricity generation in Thailand. With expertise, experience and uranium rel
Volume II No. 3
l
September 1995
Letters
National Energy Administration, 1991. Trend of energy utilization in economic sectors of Thailand: 1991-2001, Ministry of Science, Technology and Energy, Bangkok. Ner, J., 1988. ‘‘Dendro-thermal power plants’’, Proc. of ASEAN Workshop on Thermal Conversion of Biomass, pp. 210-217, Head Yai. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 1991. ‘‘Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks’’, OECD Experts Meeting, Paris. Petroleum Authority of Thailand, 1994. ‘‘PTT plan for 1995-1999’’, Report for Board of Directors, Bangkok. Poshyananda, S., 1994. ‘‘Transnational power development’’, Proc. of Techno Indochina, pp. 266-275, UN Conference Centre, Bangkok. Saragih, J., and Herwanto, S., 1991. ‘‘New and renewable sources of energy in Indonesia’’, Proc. of Asia Energy ’91, ESCAP, Bangkok. Sims, R.E.H., 1994, ‘‘The feasibility of wood-fired power plant’’, Proc. of 5th ASEAN Conference on Energy Technology, Vol. I, pp. 252-263, ASEAN SCNCER, Bangkok. Sook, H., 1993. ‘‘Electric power development and environmental considerations’’, Proc. of 5th International Energy Conference, Energex ’93, Vol. VI, pp. 218-225, Seoul. Thailand Development Research Institute, 1993. ‘‘Preparation of a national strategy on global climate change: Thailand’’, Final report to the Government of Thailand, Bangkok. Tu, N.D., 1995. ‘‘Perspectives of Vietnam electric power development’’, 28th JAIF Annual Conference, Tokyo. Vinitnantrat, S., Asvapisit, S., Wangwath, R., and Wibulswas, P., 1994. ‘‘Carbon dioxide emission from combustion of fuels in Thailand’’, Proc. of 5th ASEAN Conference on Energy Technology, Vol. II, pp. 177-182, ASEAN SCNCER, Bangkok. Wangwacharakul, V., 1993. ‘‘Reducing CO2 emission in Thailand’’, Quarterly Environment Journal, Thailand Environment Institute, Vol. I(1), Bangkok. Wibulswas, P., and Towprayoon, S., 1993. ‘‘Sulphur dioxide emission from power stations and oil refineries in Thailand’’, Proc. of Conference on Regional Environment and Climate Change in East Asia, pp. 275-277, Taipei. Wibulswas, P., 1995. ‘‘Solid fuels and related problems in Thailand’’, J. of Royal Institute of Thailand, Vol. 19, Bangkok. Wibulswas, P., Srichai, S., and Tanticharoen, M., 1990. ‘‘Feasibility of dendro-thermal power systems’’, Proc. of Workshop on Decentralized Power Production, pp. 103109, AIT, Bangkok. Young, R.T., Huang, J.I., and Chu, Y.H., 1993. ‘‘Energy-related carbon dioxide emission inventory of Taiwan’’, Proc. of International Conference on Regional Environment and Climate Change in East Asia, pp. 402-407, Taipei.
sources in developed countries in the region, harnessing of nuclear power in developing countries should be possible and highly effective for greenhouse gas mitigation in the future. References Ahimsa, D., 1995, ‘‘National energy policy, prospect of nuclear power and nuclear strategy in Indonesia’’, 28th JAIF Annual Conference, Tokyo. Akihiro, A., 1992. Global warming and economic growth-modeling in Japan, Center for Global Environmental Studies, Environmental Agency of Japan, pp. 86-87. Arif, J.M., 1992. ‘‘Development of renewable energy resources in Malaysia’’, Proc. of Asia Energy ’92, ESCAP, Bangkok. Bureau of Transport and Communication Economics, 1994. Australia Transport Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra. Department of Energy Development and Promotion, 1993. Thailand Energy Situation, Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment, Bangkok. Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, 1993. EGAT Power Development Plan, Nontburi. Japan Atomic Power Company, 1994. ‘‘Steady development of nuclear power generation’’, pp. 7-8, Tokai. Khunumongkol, P., 1993. ‘‘Energy consumption in Thailand and greenhouse gas emissions’’, Quarterly Environment Journal, Vol. 1(1), pp. 11-20, Thailand Environmental Institute, Bangkok. Kim, J.D., 1993. ‘‘The cost-effectiveness of DSM options in abating CO2 emission in Korea’’, Proc. of 5th International Energy Conference, Energex ’93, Vol. VI, pp. 96-103, Seoul. Labanan-Garcia, L.G., 1994. ‘‘The power development program of the national power corporation’’, Proc. of 5th ASEAN Conference on Energy Technology, Vol. I, p. 28, ASEAN SCNCER, Bangkok. Narbun, B., 1994. ‘‘Potential programmes of demand-side management in the residential sector in Indonesia’’, Proc. of 5th ASEAN Conference on Energy Technology, Vol. I, pp. 34-43, ASEAN SCNCER, Bangkok. National Energy Administration, 1987. ‘‘Dendro-thermal power plants planned: Thailand’’, RERIC News, Vol. 10(4), p. 5, AlT, Bangkok.
Readers’ reactions welcomed Energy for Sustainable Development would appreciate correspondence from readers regarding the contents of the journal and related subjects. The aim of the journal is to achieve the widest possible dissemination of information pertaining to renewable sources of energy, energy efficiency, the shaping of energy policy, and energy devices, with a focus on solving the energy problems of developing countries. Readers who would like to contribute to this dissemination effort by making brief comments on material that appears in the journal, or by drawing other readers’ and the editors’ attention to interesting work and developments in the field of energy would be aiding the work of dissemination. Please send your commentative or informative letters to: ‘‘Correspondence’’ c/o the Associate Editor Energy for Sustainable Development 25/5, Borebank Road Benson Town Bangalore-560 046 India Fax: +91 80 554 8426 e-mail: [email protected] Energy for Sustainable Development
l
Volume II No. 3
l
September 1995
59