Changes in spatial and temporal patterns of development in Iran

POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY QUARTERLY . Vol . 7 . No 4 . October 1988 . 323-337

Changes in spatial and temporal patterns of development in Iran MOHAMMAD KAMIAR

Center for Urban Affairs, Michigan State University, Fast Lansing, MI 48824, USA

This study examines changes in spatial patterns of development focusing on regional inequalities at three different scales of analysis, i .e., provincial, township, and inter-urban, between 1966 and 1976 in Iran . In order to evaluate degrees of spatial disparity and their changes through time and space, variables of employment in manufacturing, government employment, literacy, population with a university degree, and housing units with electricity were used . The results indicate that there was some reduction in the levels of disparities recorded within urban and rural areas from 1966 to 1976 . However, when urban and rural areas are compared, the spatial gap between them increased . The spatial gap of development between these two sectors in some cases almost tripled during this period . ABSTRACT .

Spatial variation in economic development exists at all levels of geographical analysis and is a common characteristic of the development process in all countries, regardless of their political and economic systems . Economic activity takes place in space and the way in which space is manipulated can be advantageous for some people in some places and disadvantageous in others . As a consequence of initial local opportunities, available resources, division of labor, and deliberate planning for development, economic activities usually are concentrated and specialized in very few places, thus producing regional disparities . The purpose of this study is to examine changes in spatial patterns of development, with special reference to regional disparity, at three different scales of analysis, i .e . provincial (Ostan), township (Shahrestan), and city (Shahr), between 1966 and 1976 in Iran . Data utilized in this study are gathered from the Iranian censuses taken during this time period . In order to assess changes in disparity through time and over space, measures of employment in manufacturing, government employment, literacy rates, population with university degree, and housing units with electricity were used . Development has been treated as a historical process that `encompasses . . . the entire economic and social life of a nation' (Amin, 1973 : 2) . Some scholars define development in terms of reduction in poverty, unemployment and inequality, including regional inequality (Seers, 1972, 1973) . For others, development summarizes a `profound change in the economic arrangements' (Dadzie, 1980 : 59) . The essence of development is the 'improvement through time of the economic `well-being' (Lentnek, 1980 : 82) . For some geo0260-9827/88/04 0323-15 503 .00 © 1988 Bunerworth & Co (Publishers) Ltd

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graphers, development must 'involve some degree of spatial adjustment' (Gilbert, 1974 : 12) . Development has also been seen as a socio-spatial process synonymous with 'spatial reorganization' (Mabogunje . 1981 : 68) . It is also believed that 'as development gradually spreads . the decrease in spatial inequalities paves the way for a balanced regional structure' (Hall, 1984 : 48) . The level of development has also been measured by wealth of a nation that may be' intimately related to vital issues such as health, longevity, and range of choices and comforts available to people' (Ginsburg, Osborn and Blank, 1986 : 1) . The present study refers to development as improvement in material well-being and reduction in social and spatial gaps through time . Some of the previous literature has been concerned with the question of convergence, a greater degree of spatial equality, and divergence, widening spatial inequality (Kuznets . 1955 : Myrdal, 1957 : Hirschman . 1958; Williamson, 1965 ; Koropeckyj . 1972 ; Stohr and Taylor, 1981) . Hirschman believes that government actions such as progressive taxation and subsidies will solve the problem of regional disparity . Myrdal, on the other hand, concludes that the gap between regions will increase through time . His view is based on the elitist nature of governments in the less developed countries and circular and cumulative mechanisms that widen inequalities between the rich and poor regions . Most available literature agrees that during the process of development, spatial structure and spatial competition are not neutral . Development planning in the advantaged region will be marked by corresponding worsening conditions in other regions (Slater, 1975 ; Coates et al ., 1977 ; Bigsten, 1980 ; Mabogunje, 1981 ; Smith, 1982 ; Gradus, 1983) . Empirical studies on changes in spatial patterns of disparity for the more developed countries show more convergence than divergence . Eample of such studies are for the United States (Cumberland, 1973 : Semple, 1977) . Great Britain (Cameron . 1974), and Japan (Mera, 1977) . In Italy, regional inequality increased through time (Sundquist, 1975) . Among 12 underdeveloped countries, empirically studied, convergence was only recorded for China (Stohr and Taylor, 1981) . A Peruvian case study showed some improvements in both urban and rural areas, but when these two were compared, the development gap between them had increased (Hilhorst and Sterkenburg, 1981) . Economic and political developments in Iran Several reasons are given for the urban-based Iranian revolution of 1979 . The reasons range from external to internal factors and from cultural, economic and political reasons to the growing expectations of the people . Some authors argue that the revolution was due to increased inequalities in Iran (Parvin and Zamani, 1979 ; Kazemi, 1980 ; Walton, 1980 ; Katouzian, 1981 ; Keddie, 1981 ; Petras and Morley, 1981 ; Limbert, 1987) . Clark (1981 : 287) believes that `inability . . . to improve . . . the poorer quarters of the cities' was a major factor behind the revolution . Some scholars argue that `uneven development' was one of the causes of the revolution (Abrahamian, 1982 ; Halliday, 1983 ; Momayezi, 1986) . The Shah himself has blamed the international oil cartels for his downfall (Pahlavi, 1980) . The Shah usually demanded higher prices for the Iranian oil . This petro-dollar was badly needed to buy military technology and carry out national development plans . The five development plans implemented by the Shah's government were heavily dependent on the oil revenues . Therefore, any change in the amount of the oil income had a direct effect on planning procedures . For example, the first plan (1948-1955) was crippled by a major loss of oil income during the nationalization processes of the oil industry . The tenfold increase of the oil income during the fifth plan (1973-1977), contributing more than 80 percent of the national budget . was much greater than the country's absorptive capacity .



MOHA, I .MAD KASIIAR

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Two Iranian planners, who worked for the Shah's government, believe that the oil revenue created inflation in the country which in turn destroyed the Shah's regime (Razavi and Vakil, 198 5) . They argue (,p . 96) that 'The overconfident Shah of the post-1973 period launched the overspending spree with his dream of a Great Civilization . . . set in motion an inflation that was to topple his regime' . On the other hand, only twice in Iranian history, in 1953 and 1979, did oil production reach zero . This was one of the important factors resulting in the downfall of the government of Dr . Mossadeq and the Shah's regime . Political implications of the role of State (Johnston, 1982, 1983) are related to the allocation of the public resources employing specific s trategies . i n the Iranian case being biased towards industrial activities and upper classes in the larger urban centers . Political economy of planning thus becomes 'an alternative way in which the interests of dominant classes can be safeguarded or promoted' (Taylor, 1985 : 203) . Instead of social harmony, unwise application of planning may result in social disharmony . The Iranian case portrays this type of unwanted and unpredicted results . Some scholars argue that spatial integration is nothing more than diffusing political power and allocating public resources . Gradus (1983 : 399) believes that 'spatial policies that seek to alter socioeconomic distribution without altering the basic political structure are doomed to failure' . The ruling elites in many oil-producing countries are mainly committed to modernization, industrialization, and some public services . These political elites, however, are not committed to encourage political participation and dispersion . Momayezi (1986 : 81) concludes that `if the Iranian political institutions had been able to develop in tune with the social changes taking place, then the final magnitude of violence would probably have been significantly less' . Amirahmadi (1987 : 501) writes that 'extreme regional inequality characterizes Iran' . He argues (p . 525) that the 1979 Iranian revolution did not alleviate this type of spatial inequality and that without `a genuinely democratic/federative' government representing autonomous provinces regional inequality will not be cured in Iran . The recent Iranian history of political economy can be summarized by examining the global aspects of oil production and imposition of westernization ideology on the country . Modernization and westernization programs were applied to Iran since the late 1920s . These plans, of course, were not enacted in a political vacuum . They were oriented toward specific social groups and geographical locations . These plans changed Iranian society, but also created a gap among different social groups living in different parts of the country . The present research documents changes in the levels of regional inequality . The growing gap, especially between urban and rural areas, has many political implications for the future of planning strategies in Iran and many other developing countries . The availability of the oil revenues, spatial development planning, and internal migration are recognized as important factors effecting levels of regional inequalities in Iran . While encouraging further research on the topic, this paper's modest claim is that the widening spatial gap must be seen as one of many reasons behind the Iranian revolution .

Methods In order to study changes in the patterns of regional disparity between 1966 and 1976, data on five socio-economic variables were gathered at province (Ostan), township (Shahrestan), and city (Shahr) scales . In this study all 23 provinces, the 23 townships that have a provincial capital city within their boundaries, and all 23 capital cities of the provinces will be treated as areal units of investigation (see Figures 1 and 2).

326

Changing patterns

FIGURE

of

development in ban

1 . Iran : administrative provinces (Ostans) .

The provincial scale of analysis provides an overall picture of development in Iran . This level, however, is too broad and many local variations are masked by averaging the measures of development . To cope with this, data for Ostans are divided into two different categories, urban and rural . In Iran, any locality with a population of 5 000 is officially classified as urban- A further examination of township and city data provides a better insight into the regional inequalities that may have been overlooked by focusing on the Ostans . Accordingly, for each variable and each time period, five scales of analysis are examined (Figure 3) . Data on the five variables related to employment, education, and housing facilities were extracted from the Iranian National Census of Population and Housing, 1966 and 1976 . The latest census in Iran was carried out on schedule in November 1976 . However, the late 1970s corresponded with the time of political unrest and strikes . Thus, the results of this census were not available until the early 1980s . The present study is one of the very few utilizing the latest Iranian census . The five variables utilized in this study are highly related to socio-economic well-being and regional development (see Table 1) . Housing units with electricity are used to illustrate some of the arguments on inequality . The reason is that the sources of power in Iran are not ubiquitous compared to many developed nations . Consequently, it is very expensive to equip the housing units with electricity, a situation that reflects differences in income levels . This variable is also a more reliable measure of development, because the census reporters must see if a housing unit is supplied with electricity or not . The variables used in this study allow an examination of the convergence-divergence question- The changes in the levels of spatial inequality are direct consequences of the forces imposing the changes . The selection of the variables, i .e . type of employment . educational achievement and living conditions, are based on theories of polarization, center-periphery, and dependency . In a market economy, once development is planned for a favored location, an expansion of regional differences can be anticipated through a cumulative causation



MGHAMMAo KAMIAR

FIGURE 2 .

327

Iran: provincial capitals (Shahrs) and townships (Shahrestans) .

mechanism . Urban-industrial development leads to an expansion of employment opportunity, promotion of health and education conditions . improvement of housing facilities, and advancement of the means of transportation . These, in turn, enhance the chances of further development, specialization, and concentration . Inflows of the resources from rural periphery to urban centers are additional factors for increased rates of polarization which results in exploitation of the periphery and its dependency on the centers . The Lorenz curve and its associated Gini index (Darden and Tabachneck, 1980) were employed to show whether any of the selected variables are concentrated in few places at different scales and time periods . The Lorenz curve provides a quick visual means of describing space . It can be used to measure diversification in which a given distribution differs from a hypothetical even distribution shown by the diagonal . From this curve, concentration of phenomena can be calculated . The value of the Gini index measures the level of concentration which is directly related to the number of the areal units and is inverse to the size of the units . The Gini value is the percentage of area covered by the curve to the total area under the diagonal, which ranges from 0-100 . Zero indicates no variation while 100 shows the variable is concentrated in only one place . Thus, the greater the value, the more concentrated is the variable . Although the time span used in this study may seem to be short to see significant changes in the levels of spatial inequality, this period covers a very important and crucial portion of Iran's development history . Even during this ten-year period significant changes in spatial inequality can be identified since this time span covers the fourth and fifth development plans that were considered to be at least partially successful by international observers . The rate of resource exploitation, for example, in reference to the production of oil, reached its highest level of over 6 .0 million barrels a day . The price of oil also reached its highest level . Thus, the 1966-1976 period may have been a significant episode in the contemporary history of the country in relation to changes in the levels of development .



328

Changing patterns of development to Iran 19'6

1966

Ostars [provinces)

Shahrestans (to . 's I, Ps I

I Shahrs

FIGURE

3 . Scales of analysis and time periods .

Changes in spatial patterns of disparity The Gini indices of the five variables for different scales of analysis in 1966 and 1976 are shown in Table 1 . It is immediately obvious that spatial inequality exists at all three scales of analysis and in both time periods . Also, spatial disparity was more acute in rural areas than in urban areas . At the provincial level, in the rural areas, housing units with electricity had the largest Gini coefficient of 36 .66 in 1966 . At the township level, in the rural areas, the same variable had the largest coefficient of 43 .47 in 1976 . At the city level, most Gini coefficients are smaller showing that the capital cities were similar in terms of development attainment . Thus, the problem of regional disparity can be clearly recognized when one examines the spatial gap between urban and rural areas . Comparing the Gini coefficients through time shows that regional disparity within urban and rural areas in Iran generally has decreased . Actually, 19 out of the 25 Gini values decreased in 1976 compared with those of 1966 . Although convergence is recorded for more than 75 percent of the cases, this does not mean that regional disparity in Iran disappeared altogether between 1966 and 1976 . In some cases in 1976 nearly half of the area under the diagonal was covered by the Lorenz curve . Some of the increases in the value of the Gini coefficient are very small . For example, the Gini coefficient of housing units with electricity at rural township level increased from 43 .20 in 1966 to 43 .47 in 1976 . Two of the variables, employed in manufacturing and employed by government, sometimes did not follow the general trend of decreasing spatial disparity . The Gini coefficient of the first variable increased only at the provincial and urban township levels . It can be an indication of the concentration of this kind of economic activity in fewer places in 1976 . The Gini coefficient of the second variable also increased, only in rural areas . This means that government employment was available to smaller numbers in rural areas in the later period . To verify this finding, the percentages of the coefficient of variation of the five variables at all scales of analysis in 1966 and 1976 were also computed . The coefficients of variation show that in 1976 all of the selected variables were more evenly distributed in contrast to 1966 . This confirms that spatial inequality was smaller at the later date and the variables related to development were more equally distributed . The above analysis, however, should be carefully interpreted in that urban areas are



329

MOHAMMAO KAsII .R TABLE 1 .

Gini coefficients for different scales of analysis, 1966 and 1976

Variables

Employed in manufacturing Employed by government Literate population University degree Electricity

Variables

Urban 1966

Provinces Urban 1976 Rural 1966

15 .53 13 .33 16.72 32 .14 11 .70

21 .90 9 .21 9 .52 24 .94 4 .15

Urban 1966

Employed in manufacturing Employed by government Literate population University degree Electricity

17 .02 12 .11 9 .83 28 .94 8 .68

Variables

1966 21 .93 11 .54 7 .91 24 .89 6 .08

32 .64 15 .72 19 .03 24 .01 36 .66

Townships Urban 1976 Rural 1966

17 .77 11 .61 6 .35 25 .12 3 .95

45 .56 28 .01 16 .60 37 .58 43 .20

Rural 1976

34 .64 16 .72 13 .94 21 .32 34 .79

Rural 1976

'.4 .76 33 .21 14 .67 33 .62 43 .47

Cities

Employed in manufacturing Employed by government Literate population University degree Electricity

2976 17 .40 9 .40 4 .71 19 .12 3 .40

Source : Kamiar, 1985 : 75 . compared with urban areas and rural areas with rural areas . In other words, this comparison is not between urban and rural areas . Table 2 contains the ratios that derived from dividing the Gini coefficients computed for 1966 and 1976, shown in the first two columns under province and township . In this case a ratio of unity indicates no change, a ratio of more than one can be regarded as a measure of convergence, and a ratio of less than one as an indication of divergence between 1966 and 1974 . Convergence occurred more frequently than divergence with both urban and rural areas and, more importantly, higher rates of convergence are recorded for the urban areas which in turn has led to a wider gap between the two sectors . The ratios, shown in the last two columns of Table 2, are calculated by dividing the Gini coefficients of the rural areas by those of urban areas in 1966 and 1976 . These ratios can be used as measures of the spatial gap between the two sectors . When a ratio is vent' close to unity, the two sectors were not very different in terms of regional disparity, and the higher ratio the wider the spatial gap. At township level, the spatial gap between urban and rural areas as measured by the percentage of population with university degree, stayed the same between the two time periods . At both scales of analysis, however, the percentage of population employed in manufacturing decreased . The remaining ratios show that at both scales of analysis the magnitude of the regional gap between urban and rural areas has widened . In one case, at the provincial level, for the variable representing housing units with electricity, this spatial gap was almost tripled from 3 .13 to 8 .38 between 1966 and 1976 . The indices of dissimilarity of the five variables for urban and rural areas at provincial and township levels of analysis in 1966 and 1976 were also calculated . A comparison of these indices for the two time periods shows that all but two increased. This confirms that the two sectors were less similar in 1976 . Thus, it can be inferred that the spatial gap between urban and rural areas has widened .



Changing patterns of development in Iran

330 TABLE 2 .

Ratios between the Gini values through time and over space Provinces

Variables

Employed in manufacturing Employed by government Literate population University degree Electricity

Variables

Employed in manufacturing Employed by government Literate population University degree Electricity

Urban

Rural

Rural/Urban

Rural/Urban

1966/1976 0 .71 1 .45 1 .76 1 .29 2 .81

1966/1976 0 .94 0 .94 1 .36 1 .12 t .04

1966 2 .18 1 .18 1 .14 0 .75 3 .13

1976 1 .58 1 .82 1 .46 .85 0 8 .38

Urban

Rural

1966/1976 0 .96 1 .04 1 .55 1 .15 2 .19

2966/1976 1 .02 0 .84 1 .13 1 .12 0 .99

Townships Rural/Urban

1966 2 .68 2 .31 1 .69 1 .30 4 .98

Rural/Urban

1976 2 .52 2 .86 2 .31 L34 11 .00

Source : Kamiar, 1985 : 105-106 .

In computing measures of convergence-divergence and spatial gap, the population employed in manufacturing always was different from the rest of the variables . This deviation can be explained by looking at the classification of economic activities and the nature of industrialization in Iran . For example, carpet-weaving that is labor-intensive and found in both urban and rural areas is considered to be a major industrial activity . Industrialization especially in urban areas, has recently been mostly machine and capital-intensive . Indeed, urban areas may have lost their dominant role in manufacturing compared to rural areas . Figures 4-8 comprise maps and Lorenz curves of the percentage of housing units with electricity in urban and rural areas at the provincial level during 1966 and 1976, and are used to illustrate changes in spatial patterns of development . These maps and curves can be used for cross-comparison purposes . For example, Figures 4, 5, 6 and 7 may be compared, and also the Lorenz curves in Figure 8. These figures show that although spatial disparity within urban and rural areas decreased, the gap between the two has increased . This study indicates that the variation of the measures of inequality within areas having the same characteristics, either urban areas (1966 urban-1976 urban) or rural areas (1966 rural-1976 rural), is narrowing . But when unique areas are compared with other totally separate areas, i .e . urban v . rural areas, the spatial gap is widening . Therefore, a convergence of spatial patterns of disparity `within' the sub-units from 1966 to 1976 has been accompanied by a divergence `between' them . Conclusion This study has examined changes in spatial patterns of development in Iran with special reference to variations in regional inequality through time and over space . To observe the changes in spatial disparity, employment, education and a measure of material well-being, were analyzed at the province, township and city scales between 1966 and 1976 . The Gini index, coefficient of variation, and index of dissimarility of these variables were calculated and compared at those scales of analysis and time periods .

NlOf-L .\1 .NAD KAA1cAR

FIGURE 4 .

Housing units with electricity, typical urban Ostan 1966 .

FIGURE 5 .

Housing units with electricity, typical rural Ostan 1966 .

331



Changing patterns of development to Iran

332

FIGURE 6 . Housing units with electricity, typical urban Ostan 1976 .

9-12 >

6-9

FIGURE 7 . Housing units with electricity, typical rural Ostan 1976 .



MOHA .MMAD KAMIAa

333

The results show that there have been some improvements in the levels of equality, especially for the measures of education and well-being, within both urban and rural areas . However . when urban and rural sectors are compared, spatial inequality between the two has increased . The gap between urban and rural areas as measured by the ratio of their indices of inequality in some cases even tripled between 1966 and 1976 . The lack of data on income distribution has been an obstacle in the empirical study of changes in the levels of social and spatial disparities . In some of the Iranian case studies, household consumption expenditures were used as a substitute for income (Mehran . 1975 ; Pesaran and Gahvary, 1978) . The second study deals with changes of expenditure through time . Using data from different sources, different sample sizes and different time periods, the authors found no trace of convergence . Their finding, which is similar to the present study, shows that 'the urban-rural consumption ratio has increased from 2 .1 in 1960 to 8 .1 in 1972' (p . 238) . An important common characteristic of development in Asia, Africa, and Latin America has been prolonged . stubborn, and continually widening disparities which are most severe in the rural areas . In Peru, the standard of living improved in the urban areas, especially for those on the Costa, and in the rural areas from 1968 to 1975 . At the same time, a relative decrease in the ratio of product per capita in the rural areas, mostly in the Sierra, was reported (Hilhorst and Sterkenburg, 1981 : 449) . `This means in fact that in over-all terms the economic position of the population in the Sierra underwent a relative decline' . This conclusion is similar to the present study's findings . The present study's contrasting conclusions, convergence within urban and rural areas and divergence between them, can be justified by examining three factors, namely : availability of petro-dollars, decentralized planning and internal migration . Iran is different from most of the lesser developed countries because of its oil revenues . Huge amounts of the oil revenues have been returned to western countries for purchasing technology and military equipment . Yet, a small proportion of the total oil revenues finally could trickle down and be spent for the betterment of society . Since the Shah's government had money at its disposal, it encouraged education, and provided some health services and basic needs (Lieberman, 1979) . At least on the surface, these efforts inflated, statisticallyspeaking, educational attainment . Many small and big dams were built to provide electricity to urban centers and to some rural areas . The government became the biggest employer in the country and those that were employed by the government were under obligation to move to the places they were assigned . The Iranian planning strategy was characterized by a superimposition of the orders from above with the direct intervention of the Shah (Mehner, 1978 : 178 ; Limbert, 1987 : 96) . Planning in Iran also became increasingly urban and industry oriented, capital intensive, dominated by high technology and large projects . It was sponsored by the oil revenues . Except for the land reform program that made the rural situation worse, this sector was totally ignored . In early 1970, some growth centers were selected which were based on the existing provincial capitals and other major cities . The main purpose was to attract investment away from Tehran, mobilize resources in their local settings, and develop a secondary urban system (Appalraju and Safier, 1976) . Migration can influence levels of regional disparity (Brown and Lawson, 1985 ; Simon, 1986) . According to Portes (1978 : 43) migration is 'a process by which human populations take advantage of economic opportunities distributed differentially across space' . Based on Zelinsky's (1971) mobility transition, Iran's conditions were similar to those countries in their second phase or a transitional society with a massive movement of population from the periphery to the core areas . In Mabogunje's (1970) systems approach to rural-urban



Changing patter

a a 2

vetopment rn Iran

0

20 Gini Index =

a

50

09

80

Percentage with electricity

Percentage with electricity

Cirri Index = 4-7 Se 1 1 I I 1

20

40

60

80

Percentage with electricity

100

C

Cirri Index = 74,741 0 20 40 60 so 100 Percentage with electricity

Lorenz curves for housing units with electricity : (a) urban Ostan 1966 ; (b) rural Ostan 1966; (c) urban Ostan 1976 ; (d) rural Ostan 1976 . FIGURE S .

migration, government policies such as land reform can be a major element involved in pushing people out of the countryside . Ahmad (1981) believes that the army of urban demonstrations during the Iranian revolution was composed mainly of rural destitutes . Thus, migration as a process may work as an equalizing force in changing patterns of regional disparity . Rural areas have been discriminated against and exploited through land ownership and unfair terms of trade . It is not surprising that the needs of the urban population have been met before those of the rural population . The major reasons given here-such as the trickle down of the oil revenues, spatial development planning, and internal migration-are twoway processes . They not only produce convergence, they can widen the gap between regions . The upper classes in urban areas benefited more from petro-dollars, development planning and immigration . This study's finding on spatial inequality through time provides further reference to a greater and stronger convergence within the urban than rural sector which in turn produced a divergence between them . Along the lines of this study's findings, one may use the same procedures for different countries . A study of spatial disparity could be carried out for Iran for the 1986 census period which will provide comparative data on the changes in spatial imbalances . Socioeconomic disparities can also be translated into a core-periphery or urban-rural antagonism . This is beoming important in a multi-ethnic country like Iran, where the emergence of a powerful central government is coupled with consciousness of the population in the rural periphery .

IMOHA .MIMAD KA .NIIAR

335

Acknowledgements

I

would like to thank Professors Gary Manson, Joe Darden, Marvel Lang and Chongo

Mundende for their advice, support and interest .

I

would also like to thank Professor John

O'Loughlin and three anonymous referees for their comments on previous versions of this paper .

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