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Changing climate
Geoexploration,
23 (1985) 549-553
Elsevier
Publishers
Science
B.V.. Amsterdam
549 -Printed
in The Netherlands
Book Reviews C~u~~~g Climate. Carbon Dioxide Assessment National Research Council, National Academy 1984, pp. 496, U.S.$29.50.
Committee of the U.S. Press, Washington, D.C.,
Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming? Stephen Seidel and Dale Keyes. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1984, 192 pp., U.S.$C;.OO. The carbon dioxide (CO,) concentration of Earth’s atmosphere prior to the inception of the Industrial Revolution is estimated to have been somewhere in the range of 260 to 270 parts per million. Now, however, it stands at about 350 parts per million (ppm), primarily as a result of the largescale burning of fossil fuels, but also significantly enhanced by the clearing of forests associated with the expansion of agriculture. And the recent report of the U.S. National Research Council (NRC), which is one of the subjects of this review, suggests that the CO, content of the atmosphere will reach a nominally doubled value of 600 ppm by the year 2065. This phenomenon has created great concern in some circles, for COz is generally believed to be a “greenhouse gas,” that is, an atmospheric constituent that lets the shop-wavelength solar radiation from the sun pass through to the Earth’s surface with little diminution, but which reduces significantly the loss of long-wavelength thermal radiation from the Earth’s surface to space, with the net result that any increase in its atmospheric concentration leads to a planetary warming. Indeed, the NRC report and the companion report of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) suggest that a 300 to 600 ppm concentration doubling will increase the mean global air ~mperature by 3 2 1.5”C. What is more, they predict that the warming in polar regions will be several times greater, leading to the melting of vast quantities of ice and the flooding of coastal lowlands. In addition, the NRC report claims that rainfall in the primary food-producing regions of middle latitudes will be depressed, and that streamflows will suffer consequent reductions ranging from 40 to 75%. As a result, the EPA report concludes that “agricultural conditions will be significantly altered, environmental and economic systems potentially disrupted, and political institutions stressed.” In considering what to do about this situation, the EPA report looks at various energy policy options. One possibility analyzed is the imposition of a 300% tax on all fossil fuels. Another is a ban on synfuels and shale oil, while yet another is a total ban on coal. The combined effect of all of these measures, however, is to only delay the predicted warming by about two decades. Thus, the authors of the EPA report suggest that we had better start planning now for a considerably warmer future with all of its adverse consequences. 0016-7142/85/$03.30
0 1985 Elsevier Science
Publishers
B.V.
23 (1985) 549-553
Elsevier
Publishers
Science
B.V.. Amsterdam
549 -Printed
in The Netherlands
Book Reviews C~u~~~g Climate. Carbon Dioxide Assessment National Research Council, National Academy 1984, pp. 496, U.S.$29.50.
Committee of the U.S. Press, Washington, D.C.,
Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming? Stephen Seidel and Dale Keyes. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1984, 192 pp., U.S.$C;.OO. The carbon dioxide (CO,) concentration of Earth’s atmosphere prior to the inception of the Industrial Revolution is estimated to have been somewhere in the range of 260 to 270 parts per million. Now, however, it stands at about 350 parts per million (ppm), primarily as a result of the largescale burning of fossil fuels, but also significantly enhanced by the clearing of forests associated with the expansion of agriculture. And the recent report of the U.S. National Research Council (NRC), which is one of the subjects of this review, suggests that the CO, content of the atmosphere will reach a nominally doubled value of 600 ppm by the year 2065. This phenomenon has created great concern in some circles, for COz is generally believed to be a “greenhouse gas,” that is, an atmospheric constituent that lets the shop-wavelength solar radiation from the sun pass through to the Earth’s surface with little diminution, but which reduces significantly the loss of long-wavelength thermal radiation from the Earth’s surface to space, with the net result that any increase in its atmospheric concentration leads to a planetary warming. Indeed, the NRC report and the companion report of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) suggest that a 300 to 600 ppm concentration doubling will increase the mean global air ~mperature by 3 2 1.5”C. What is more, they predict that the warming in polar regions will be several times greater, leading to the melting of vast quantities of ice and the flooding of coastal lowlands. In addition, the NRC report claims that rainfall in the primary food-producing regions of middle latitudes will be depressed, and that streamflows will suffer consequent reductions ranging from 40 to 75%. As a result, the EPA report concludes that “agricultural conditions will be significantly altered, environmental and economic systems potentially disrupted, and political institutions stressed.” In considering what to do about this situation, the EPA report looks at various energy policy options. One possibility analyzed is the imposition of a 300% tax on all fossil fuels. Another is a ban on synfuels and shale oil, while yet another is a total ban on coal. The combined effect of all of these measures, however, is to only delay the predicted warming by about two decades. Thus, the authors of the EPA report suggest that we had better start planning now for a considerably warmer future with all of its adverse consequences. 0016-7142/85/$03.30
0 1985 Elsevier Science
Publishers
B.V.