Climate change and farm-level adaptation decisions and strategies in drought-prone and groundwater-depleted areas of Bangladesh: an empirical investigation

Ecological Economics 106 (2014) 204–213

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Ecological Economics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

Analysis

Climate change and farm-level adaptation decisions and strategies in drought-prone and groundwater-depleted areas of Bangladesh: an empirical investigation Mohammad Alauddin a,⁎, Md Abdur Rashid Sarker b a b

School of Economics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld. 4072, Australia Department of Economics, Rajshahi University, Rajshahi 6205, Bangladesh

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history: Received 22 September 2013 Received in revised form 16 July 2014 Accepted 31 July 2014 Available online 24 August 2014 JEL classification: O1 Q0 Q2 Q12 Q25

Keywords: Climate change Drought severity Groundwater depletion Adaptation barriers Resource-depleting adaptation Science-driven adaptation Enabling environment

a b s t r a c t Despite recognizing the vulnerability of Bangladesh's agriculture to climate change, the existing literature pays limited attention to a rigorous, quantitative analysis of farm-level data to investigate rice farmers' preferred adaptation strategies, perceived barriers, and policy implications. By employing data from 1800 Bangladeshi farm-households in eight drought-prone and groundwater-depleted districts of three climatic zones and logit models, this study breaks new ground in investigating farm-level adaptation to climate change. Results showed that farmers' perceptions of climatic variability supported macro-level evidence. Science-driven (e.g., drought tolerant rice), environmental resource-depleting (e.g., groundwater), and crop-switching (e.g., non-rice crops) typified preferred farm-level adaptation strategies to alleviate adverse effects of climate change. Drought severity, extent of groundwater depletion, education level, farm-size, access to climate information, and electricity for irrigation, and agricultural subsidies were significant factors underpinning farmers' decision to adapt. Inadequate access to climate information and scientific research outcomes, limited irrigation facility and resource-base represented major adaptation barriers. Strengthening agricultural research and support services including information accessibility, communityfocussed farming education and training for improved crop culture practices, and expanded and efficient surface-water irrigation infrastructure are critically important for creating an effective adaptation process to climate change. Scientific research-driven adaptation measures with stronger support systems appear more sustainable. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction It is now widely recognized that Bangladesh represents one of the most sensitive hotspots for climate change and climate-related extreme events (World Bank, 2013). Increasing temperature and variable rainfall levels along with severe and frequent floods, droughts and cyclones adversely affect agricultural production and place Bangladesh's food security at risk (GoB, 2011). Boro (irrigated) rice would endure the most of any adverse effect of climate change, and limit its ability to recover from aus and aman (rain-fed) rice crop losses due to extreme climate events (Yu et al., 2010, p. 60). Frequent local droughts in northwestern Bangladesh cause greater yield losses relative to flooding and submergence (World Bank, 2013, p.128). On average, droughts affect about 47% of the total area of ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (M. Alauddin), [email protected] (M.A.R. Sarker).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.025 0921-8009/© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bangladesh and 53% of the population (WARPO, 2005). Levels of drought severity, constituting 7.4% at very severe (.58 Mha), 21.7% (1.7 Mha) at severe, and 27.8% (2.18 Mha) at moderately severe of Bangladesh's net cropped area in 2012 (MoA, 2013). Thus, severe to very severe drought-prone areas accounted for 29.1% of the net cultivated area. Despite these serious climate-related difficulties, Bangladesh may be able to develop adaptive responses that could mitigate these effects. Empirical evidence recognizes that adaptation to climate change can potentially reduce its adverse effects, protect the livelihoods of poor farmers and reinforce any potential advantages it may bring (Gandure et al., 2013; Wheeler et al., 2013). This adaptation refers to an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic conditions or risks and can be regarded as a policy option to contain the negative effects of climate change (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2008a). Adaptive responses can be autonomous or planned. Autonomous adaptation refers to actions taken by individual actors, such as farmers or agricultural organizations, while planned

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adaptation includes actions, such as development of climate-specific infrastructure, regulations and incentives implemented by regional, national and international organisations in order to complement, enhance and/or facilitate responses by farmers and organizations (Shaw et al., 2013). Park et al. (2012) classified adaptation strategies into incremental (short-term reactive measures that focus on maintaining the current system) and transformative (purposeful decision-making processes). Agriculture is an important sector of the Bangladesh economy where adaptation to climate change could be usefully applied, in particular to rice production. Despite a declining share in the gross domestic product (GDP), agriculture remains the pillar of the Bangladesh economy. It represents the critical source of income for the majority of the population, and directly employing about half the total labor force (GoB, 2011). Furthermore, rural communities, that represent the vast majority of the population, will continue to depend on agriculture even with structural change in the economy (World Bank, 2013, p.125). Rice accounts for 90% of the total food production in Bangladesh, and occupies nearly four-fifths of the gross cropped area. As a crop, it is sensitive to changing climate and related extreme events, such as floods, droughts, cyclones (MoP, 2011) and groundwater depletion. Bangladesh's water scarcity is primarily economic in nature, largely due to investment in water or a lack of human capacity to satisfy demand for water. However, some northwest Bangladesh districts, such as Chapai Nawabganj, Naogaon, and Rajshahi may be approaching physical water scarcity, due to a lack of sufficient water to meet all demands, including environmental flows (Alauddin and Sharma, 2013). The World Bank (2013, p. 119) reported that on a scale of 0 to 1 (0 – no apparent threat, 1 – extremely threatened), Bangladesh's water security threat was extreme, varying between 0.8 and 1. Taking into consideration the combined effects of climate change, drought and water scarcity in an agriculture-intensive (more appropriately, rice-intensive) country such as Bangladesh (Alauddin and Quiggin, 2008), an investigation of the determinants of adaptation strategies to meet these environmental challenges appears essential. As will be discussed in Section 2, despite recognizing Bangladesh's vulnerability, to date insufficient research has rigorously analyzed farm-level data to investigate rice farmers' adaptation strategies, barriers to adaptation, and policy implications in Bangladesh. This study addresses this limitation with an in-depth analysis of a large farm-household dataset from drought-prone and groundwater-depleted areas in Bangladesh. Farmers' perceptions of the long-term changes in climate variables and extreme weather events are important because farmers first perceive the changes and then, based on their perceptions, they make decisions about adaptation strategies. This study did not consider profit maximisation as a guide to action for managing risk and uncertainty (Alchian, 1950). Instead, it regarded farmers in the low-income countries including Bangladesh as satisficers (Roumasset, 1976). This research advances the existing literature in two important ways. First, it uses farm-level survey data and quantitative analysis (to focus specifically on rice farmers' adaptation to climate change in drought-prone and groundwater-depleted areas of Bangladesh (cf. Ahmed and Chowdhury, 2006; FAO, 2006; Habiba et al., 2013). Second, the present study avoids concentrating only on North Western Bangladesh. Instead, it relies on surveys covering a far wider geographical focus (cf. Sarker et al., 2013). Section 2 reviews the relevant empirical evidence, while Section 3 presents and discusses the methodology. Section 4 presents and discusses the empirical results of the study. Section 5 discusses the conclusions and policy implications of the findings. 2. Review of Literature Apart from research undertaken on Bangladeshi farmers, which is reviewed in Section 2.2, the bulk of the existing research that has investigated farm-level adaptation to climate change has been mostly in African countries (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana,

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Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe), and to a lesser extent in Sri Lanka and Australia. The results from this body of research is examined first.

2.1. Evidence Outside Bangladesh Empirical evidence suggests that the most common farm-level adaptation strategies to climate change are changing crop varieties, irrigation, planting trees, crop and livestock diversification, soil conservation, early and late planting, increasing plant spacing, using clay soil, and adjusting the level and timing of fertilizer application (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2008a; Molua, 2009; Nhemachena and Hassan, 2007). Empirical evidence suggests that the factors that influence farmers' adoption of these adaptation choices fall into three categories, namely, household characteristics, institutional factors, and social capital. (1) Household characteristics include education-level of the household head, gender of the household head, family size, farm size, farming experience, and family wealth (Bryan et al., 2009; Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2008a). (2) Institutional factors encompass access to extension services, climate information and credit, off-farm employment opportunities, and land tenure status (Bryan et al., 2009; Deressa et al., 2009a,b; Gbetibouo, 2009; Hassan and Nhemachena, 2008). (3) Social capital comprises farmer-to-farmer extension and the number of relatives in the neighbourhood (Deressa et al., 2009a,b). While farmers can perceive changes in temperature and rainfall, barriers, such as inadequate information, limited access to credit (Bryan et al., 2009; Deressa et al., 2009a,b), and water shortages (Yesuf et al., 2008) may limit their ability to make effective adjustments to their farming practices to adapt to climate change. Among the household characteristics, the age of the household head has been found to be a significant determinant affecting farmers' adaptation choices, although empirical results are inconsistent. Deressa et al. (2009a,b), Gbetibouo (2009), and Hassan and Nhemachena (2008) found a positive association between the household head's age and the decision to deploy adaptation strategies while, Nyangena (2008) found the opposite. Studies have found that male-led households displayed a greater capacity to adapt than those led by females (Bryan et al., 2009; Deressa et al., 2009a,b), and that large families were more likely to adopt new agricultural ideas due to a higher endowment of labour resources (Deressa et al., 2009a,b, 2011). Furthermore, Deressa et al. (2011), Hassan and Nhemachena (2008) and Maddison (2006) reported a positive association between adaptation and the education level of the household head. Also, Deressa et al. (2009a,b) found that wealthier and higher-income farmers demonstrated a greater propensity for adopting agricultural innovations and took more associated risks. This suggests that higher income levels are likely to significantly increase the likelihood of planting trees, adjusting planting dates, using different crop varieties and using supplementary irrigation as adaptation choices (Deressa et al., 2009a,b, 2011; Gbetibouo, 2009). Most decisions by farmers to adapt to climate change vary directly with livestock ownership since it serves as a store of value (Chambers and Leach, 1989; Deressa et al., 2009a,b). Institutional factors involving access to extension services and access to information on crops and livestock have been found to positively influence farmers' decisions to adapt to climate change and crop diversification (Deressa et al., 2011). Also, research suggests that farmers' adaptation options can vary directly with their access to credit, as greater financial capacity enables farmers to adjust their management practices (Hassan and Nhemachena, 2008).

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2.2. Evidence from Bangladesh

3. Methodology

Most studies that have examined adaptation to climate change in drought-prone areas of Bangladesh have adopted a holistic approach to livelihood adaptation practices on rural communities without a specific focus on rice farming, and have relied on qualitative analysis (Ahmed and Chowdhury, 2006; FAO, 2006; Habiba et al., 2013). Only one study has used quantitative methods, involving multinomial logit model, and focused specifically on rice farming in Bangladesh (Sarker et al., 2013). Ahmed and Chowdhury (2006) focused on livelihood adaptation practices and technologies for climate change and climate-related extreme events in two severe drought-prone areas in the northwest region of Bangladesh, namely, Chapai Nawabganj and Naogaon. They identified small and marginal farmers, wage labourers, traders, small business owners and fishermen as the major vulnerable groups. They found that the main adaptation practices included the excavation of ponds and retention of rainwater in canals, planting of mango trees, the rearing of livestock and poultry at the local level, and deep tubewell irrigation that was encouraged by government policy. FAO (2006) conducted a holistic analysis of the improvement of the adaptive capacity of rural livelihoods in the face of climate variability and change in 12 villages within four upazillas (sub-districts) of the Chapai Nawabganj and Naogaon districts in Bangladesh. Their results showed that aman rice was the crop most affected by drought, with recorded production losses of up to 70%. FAO (2006) identified some major adaptation strategies implemented by farmers, including the excavation of ponds and deep tube-well facilitated irrigation, expansion of mango plantations, the cultivation of short-duration and droughttolerant crop varieties, and homestead gardening. Habiba et al. (2013, p. 250) analyzed qualitative data from field visits in 12 upazillas of two drought-prone districts (Rajshahi and Chapai Nawabganj) and from their results recommended the incorporation of livelihood adaptations in long-term planning, an increase in research and development activity on new crops, the enhancement of information networks, improved access to credit, and the development of an enabling institutional environment. Sarker et al. (2013) used data from two upazillas in the Rajshahi district (Tanore and Godagari) involving 550 rice farm households to examine farm-level adaptation using a multinomial logit model. The study identified factors that determined choice of adaptation strategies. However, the study focussed on two upazillas with similar cropping patterns and environmental conditions, which significantly reduces the generalizability of the results. Although Ahmed and Chowdhury (2006), FAO (2006) and Habiba et al. (2013) provided useful indicators, these studies suffer from two limitations. First, they each addressed general livelihood issues rather than a specific examination of rice farming, which is an important omission as rice is the mainstay of Bangladesh's food sector. Second, with the contribution of rice to the rural economy and its sensitivity to climate change notwithstanding, neither study provided rigorous quantitative analysis of farm-level adaptation to climate change, farmers' likely adaptation strategies to minimize the effect of climate change to rice farming, or of the implications of these adaptations. As the first study of its kind on Bangladeshi rice agriculture, the current research breaks new ground in analyzing farm-level adaptation to climate change by rice farmers from widely dispersed geographical locations. Specifically, this paper has the following research questions:

3.1. Study Area

(a) Do farmers' perceptions of climate change support the macrolevel evidence of a rise in temperature and a greater variability in rainfall? (b) What are the factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt to climate change and assess their marginal impacts? (c) What are the factors underpinning farmers' decisions to adopt specific adaptation measures and quantify their impacts?

A pilot survey preceded the administration of the survey during the 2011–2012 production year for an on-field trial of the survey instrument. The final version followed minor amendments based on the pilot survey. The dataset ended up with 1800 valid observations (excluding missing information) from nine upazillas of eight districts located in three climatic zones of Bangladesh. Table 1 reports the study locations. Fig. 1 illustrates the locations of the study areas. Study areas 1–5 represent very severe drought-prone locations and depleted groundwater tables. Lalpur (5) receives the lowest annual rainfall in Bangladesh, while Gazipur (9) has experienced the most severe decline in groundwater table. The other three areas Damurhuda (7), Ishurdi (6), and Sariakandi (8) represent moderate levels of drought severity and groundwater depletion, but greater cropping diversity. To answer the research questions, the survey sought information on: (a) Farmers' perception about climate change, adaptation strategies and barriers to adaptation; (b) Socio-demographic characteristics (e.g., age, gender, and education level of the household head and household size); (c) Farm characteristics (e.g., farm-size, ownership status); (d) Institutional accessibility to extension services, weather information, credit, subsidy); (e) Infrastructural accessibility (e.g., electricity for irrigation). Farmers were offered the choice of 12 major adaptation strategies from which they were instructed to select one as their main strategy (illustrated in Fig. 2). The strategies were unordered, discrete and mutually exclusive 3.2. Binary Model for Adaptation Decisions Farmers' adaptation decisions (whether to adapt or not) is a binary variable, y, comprising two outcomes coded as 1 if adaptation takes
1 place or 0 with no adaptation. We could then define as y ¼ where 0 1 indicates the positive outcome with probability Pr and 0 indicates the negative outcome with probability (1 − Pr). The odds of observing the positive outcome is: Ω¼

P r ðy ¼ 1Þ P r ðy ¼ 1Þ ¼ P r ðy ¼ 0Þ 1−P r ðy ¼ 1Þ

ð1Þ

The log of the odds is the logit, which is a function of independent variables. Eq. (2) specifies the logit model:  ln

 P r ðy ¼ 1jxÞ ¼ ln ΩðxÞ ¼ β0 þ β1 DD þ β2 GWD þ β3 YS þ β4 FS ð2Þ 1−P r ðy ¼ 1jxÞ þ β5 OL þ β6 ACI þ β7 AS þ β8 AEI

Table 1 Upazillas, districts and sample sizes. Study Upazilla area

District

Climatic Zone

Valid observations

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Chapai Nawabganj Naogaon Rajshahi Rajshahi Natore Pabna Chuadanga Bogra Gazipur

Zone E: Western Zone E: Western Zone E: Western Zone E: Western Zone E: Western Zone D: North-Western Zone D: North-Western Zone D: North-Western Zone G: South-Central

99 111 179 180 202 180 286 223 340

Nachol Porsha Tanore Charghat Lalpur Ishurdi Damurhauda Sariakandi Kapasia

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where DD = drought dummy, GWD = ground water depletion dummy, YS = years of schooling, FS = farm size, OL = ownership of livestock, ACI = access to climate information, AS = access to subsidy, AEI = access to electricity for irrigation. Here for a unit change in xk, we expect the logit to change by βk, ceteris paribus. However, a more meaningful is the marginal effect defined as Eq. (3): Marginal effect; MEs ¼

∂P r ðy ¼ 1jxÞ ∂xk

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4. Results This section proceeds with an analysis of farmers' perceptions about climate change, their adaptation strategies and the barriers they encounter in adapting to climate change in Section 4.1. Section 4.2 presents econometric model selection. Sections 4.3 and 4.4 respectively present and discuss econometric modelling results for adaptation decision and choice of adaptation strategies.

ð3Þ 4.1. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change, Adaptation Strategies and Barriers

3.3. Multinomial Logit Model for Adaptation Strategies The selection of the adaptation strategies choice entails either a multinomial probit (MNP) or a multinomial logit (MNL) model. This study used the MNL model as it provides a more precise estimation than the MNP (Kropko, 2007). Moreover, the computation of MNL model is simpler and parameter estimates are easier to interpret than other models (Cameron and Trivedi, 2009; Long, 1997). The MNL model specifies that: lnΩmjb ðxÞ ¼ ln

P r ðy ¼ mjxÞ ¼ xβmjb ; P r ðy ¼ bjxÞ

for m = 1 to J where b is the reference category. These J equations can be solved to compute the predicted probabilities when all the regressors are case-specific.   exp xβmjb   P r ðy ¼ mjxÞ ¼ X J exp xβ jjb j¼1 where, x s a vector case-specific regressors (as with the binary logit model). The probability of one adaptation strategy occurring relative to the base category is a function of the regressors and an intercept. The MNL model requires the assumption of independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) to hold for unbiased and consistent parameter estimates. The assumption necessitates that the probability of adopting a particular adaptation strategy by a given farm household requires independence from the probability of adopting another. The MNL model can be regarded as simultaneously estimating binary logits for all possible comparisons among the outcomes. With J outcomes, only J-1 binary logits need to be estimated. The 12 main adaptation strategies in the survey instrument were re-coded/grouped into seven broad categories (see Section 4.2): direct seeded rice (D), more irrigation water for boro rice crops (M), supplementary irrigation for aus and aman rice crops (SI), short duration and drought tolerant rice varieties (S), adjusting planting date and others (C), water-saving non-rice crops and horticultural crops (W), and no adaptation (N). These outcomes are unordered and discrete. The proper model is MNL estimated with maximum likelihood estimation method. Eq. (4) specifies the MNL model for the direct seeded rice option (D). ln ΩDjN ðxi Þ ¼ β0;DjN þ β1;DjN DD þ β2;DjN GWD þ β3;DjN YS þ β4;DjN FS þ β5;DjN OL þ β6;DjN ACI þ β7;DjN AS þ β8;DjN AEI

ð4Þ

The five remaining equations for M, SI, S, C, and W were specified accordingly, where the seventh category N (no adaptation) represents the reference category. The parameters of the MNL model are usually not directly interpretable. Instead, marginal effects (MEs) that measure the impact on the probability of observing each of several outcomes rather than the impact on a single conditional mean are more meaningful and interpretable (Cameron and Trivedi, 2009).

The survey revealed that 98.0% and 97.9% of the farmers interviewed perceived an increase in annual and summer temperatures, while 95.2% and 94.9% respectively perceived a decrease in annual and summer rainfall. Less than 1% of participants perceived no change in annual temperature and rainfall. A minority of the respondents perceived that the monsoon and winter temperatures had declined (20.1% and 42.1% respectively). Less than a fifth of the respondents (18.9% and 16.2% respectively) did not perceived any changes in winter temperature. An overwhelming majority (95.9%) of farmers perceived that the severity and frequency of droughts had increased over the preceding two decades. Most farm households (92.0% and 93.3%) respectively perceived a decline in the availability of both groundwater and surfacewater during summer. Almost three-quarters (74.0%) perceived a decrease in the supply of groundwater during winter. About 95.5% of households perceived an increase in the severity of heat waves, with 59.9% of households perceiving a rise in the severity of cold snaps. Farmers believed that temperatures have increased with concurrent decrease in rainfall over the past two decades. These perceptions are consistent with the existing macro-level and other evidence (see e.g., GoB and UNDP, 2009; Nishat and Mukherjee, 2013). In response to the changes in climate variables, farmers in the study areas have undertaken a number of adaptations measures. Fig. 2 illustrates the relative importance of these measures. Four most preferred adaption strategies represented 62.7% of the respondents. Cultivation of short duration rice varieties for boro and aman represented the most preferred adaptation choice (20.1%). Use of more irrigation water for boro rice came a close second (17.4%). The other important adaptation strategies included the use of supplementary irrigation for aus and aman rice crops (14.9%) cultivation of non-rice rabi crops, such as wheat, maize, potato, pulses and oilseeds (11.2%). The two least preferred options were use of water saving technology (AWD) (0.7%) and direct seeded rice (2.6%). A small percentage of households (5.6%) did not adopt any adaptation measures. Fig. 3 illustrates the percentages of participants for the seven perceived barriers to adaptation. Major barriers to adaptation that farmers identified included limited access to information about potential climate change (20.1%), inadequate irrigation facilities (18.7%), a limited knowledge of appropriate adaptation measures (18.0%), inadequate knowledge and information about drought-resistant rice varieties (16.8%) and limited access to credit or funds (14.4%). Limited or lack of land ownership (6.1%) and labour shortage during peak agricultural operations (5.8%) were relatively less important. However, these might signal an emerging pattern militating against adaptation. Despite these perceived barriers to adaptation, farmers in the study area suggested measures to overcome them. Fig. 4 illustrates the relative importance of the suggested remedial measures. The most endorsed remedial measure typified scientific breakthroughs (28.2%) representing a combination of drought tolerant (Measure 1) and short duration rice varieties Measure 5). Easier access to agricultural credit (Measure 3) and adequate and timely agricultural extension service (Measure 4), were almost equally important (13.6% and 13.5% respectively). Three least endorsed remedial measures were dissemination of climate information in advance (Measure 8, 8.2%), targeted

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Fig. 1. Map of Bangladesh showing survey areas (Source: Adapted from http://maps-of-bangladesh.blogshot.com/).

agricultural subsidy (Measure 7, 10.4%) the timely availability of agricultural inputs at affordable prices (Measure 6, 11.4%). One key measure suggested by the farmers was the implementation of the proposed Uttar (north) Rajshahi Irrigation Project for the greater Rajshahi area (Measure 2). This project seeks to use surface water from the two rivers of the Ganges system (the Mahananda and the

Padma) to irrigate 74,800 hectares of land in nine upazillas (X marked in Fig. 1) of the districts of Rajshahi (Godagari, Paba and Tanore), Chapai Nawabganj (Gomostapur, Nachol and Nawabganj) and Naogaon (Manda, Niamatpur and Porsha). Upon full implementation of the project in 2019, cropping intensity in the areas is likely to rise to 228% from the current 192%, resulting in an expected production of an

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Fig. 2. Percentage of farmers' who adopted the main adaptation strategies.

additional 211,000 tonnes of foodgrains (BWDB, n.d.). The main aim of the project is to reduce the ongoing unsustainable dependence on groundwater in favour of surface water irrigation. Thus, it has the potential to save more than 38% of the Barind Tract1 from desertification and protect its ecological balance.

severity (.08). Education level of the household head had the least positive influence in adaptation decision (0004). The severity of decline in groundwater table had a relatively stronger negative effect (−.19), almost twice as strong as the positive effect of livestock ownership.

4.2. Model Selection with Adaptation Choices: Econometric Analysis

4.4. Multinomial Logit Model for Choice of Adaptation Strategies

The initial model with the 12 adaptation strategy choices displayed in Fig. 2 failed to generate statistically significant parameters. This paper re-specified the model by grouping closely related options as follows:

Table 3 presents the results of the MNL model. The remainder of this section discusses the impact of various independent variables (severity of drought, groundwater depletion, education level, farmsize, livestock ownership, climatic information, access to subsidy, electricity for irrigation) on the choice of adaptation strategies.

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Direct-seeded rice (D, Option 11); More irrigation water for boro rice crops (M, Option 2); Supplementary irrigation for aus and aman rice crops (SI, Option 3); Short duration and drought tolerant rice varieties (S, Options 1, 5 and 7); Adjusting planting date and other measures (C, Options 6, 10, 12) Water saving non-rice and horticultural crops (W, Options 4 and 8); No adaptation (Option 9 – reference category).

The use of the MNL model requires that the assumption of IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) be satisfied (Cameron and Trivedi, 2009). The MNL model is not applicable if the alternatives are not distinct and independent (Amemiya, 1981; Long, 1997). The Hausman test for the IIA assumption failed to reject the null hypothesis of independence of irrelevant alternatives at the 5% level. Estimation of robust regression tackled the likely problem of heteroscedasticity. The relevant correlation matrix for the independent variables did not find evidence of multicollinearity. Explanatory variables were verified using likelihood ratio tests.

4.4.1. Severity of Drought This study found that the greater the drought severity, the greater the likelihood was that farmers adopted supplementary irrigation for aus and aman rice, and switched to water saving non-rice and horticultural crops to adapt to climate change. Crop switching was influenced 4.1 times as much as supplementary irrigation for aus and aman rice crops. This finding ha parallel with African countries where crop switching as an adaption strategy is a common practice (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2008b). Drought severity has been most discouraging (− .119) for the use more irrigation for boro rice followed by the use of short-duration and drought-tolerant rice varieties (− .086) and direct seeded rice (−.050) as adaptation strategies.

4.3. Binary Logit Model for Adaptation Decision The farmers' decisions to undertake adaptation strategies is assumed to be a function of climate variables, such as severity of drought, ground water depletion and access to climate information, as well as households' socioeconomic and farm characteristics, such as gender and education of the household heads, total farm size, and access to electricity for irrigation. Table 2 outlines the estimated parameters and marginal effects. The marginal effects suggest that drought severity and severity of depletion in groundwater table are the two climate variables the influenced farm households' decisions to adapt to climate change. The severity of drought was the most positive influential factor (.097) in the farmers' decision to adapt to climate change followed by drought 1 Barind Tract (7770 km2 of mostly old alluvium) is the largest physiographic unit in Bangladesh. It covers most of Dinajpur, Rangpur, Pabna, Rajshahi, Bogra, and Joypurhat districts of north-western Bangladesh.

Fig. 3. Summary of farmers' perceptions about barriers to adaptation.

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Fig. 4. Farmers' suggested remedial measures for overcoming the adaptation barriers.

4.4.2. Groundwater Depletion The present results showed that severity of groundwater table depletion encouraged farmers to adopt the use of direct-seeded rice varieties and more irrigation for boro rice. The influence of this variable was respectively 3.1 and 2.7 times as large as for the direct-seeded rice and changing plantation dates as adaptation strategies. It discouraged water-saving non-rice and horticultural crops (−.319) and supplementary irrigation for aus and aman crops of rice (−.102). Resorting to greater usage of groundwater irrigation to adapt to climate change, however, may not be sustainable in the end. In parts of North-West Bangladesh (particularly in the study area), groundwater aquifers are not fully recharged. Adham et al. (2010, p.437) found that 85% of two upazillas (Tanore, 3 in Fig. 1, and Godagari one of the areas in the command area of the Uttar Rajshahi Irrigation Project) of the Barind Tract had low recharge potential. Adham et al. (2010, p.437) also estimated that only 8.6% of total precipitation percolated to recharge groundwater, with the remainder being lost due to evapotranspiration or surface runoffs. Shah (2009a) and Shamsudduha et al. (2011) documented the adverse impact of agricultural intensification on land and water in parts of South Asia. Alauddin and Sharma (2013, p.217) found a two-way causation between groundwater depth and groundwater usage in districts that represent about half of

Table 2 Adaptation decision: estimated marginal effects. Variables

Decision to adapt to climate change (1 = Yes; 0 = No) Estimated parameters

Severe drought (1 = Yes, 0 = No) Severe ground water depletion (1 = Yes, 0 = No) Education level (years of schooling) Farm size (total land area owned) Ownership of livestock (1 = Yes, 0 = No) Access to climate information (1 = Yes, 0 = No) Access to subsidy (1 = Yes, 0 = No) Access to electricity for irrigation (1 = Yes, 0 = No) Constant Wald χ2 (3) Pseudo R2 AIC BIC Observations *p b .10; **p b .05; ***p b .01.

Marginal effects

0.579⁎⁎⁎ −1.417⁎⁎⁎

.08⁎⁎⁎ −.19⁎⁎⁎

.027⁎ .041 .567⁎⁎⁎ .089 .071 −.138

.004⁎ .006 .097⁎⁎ .013 .011 −.020

1.422⁎⁎⁎ 90.77⁎⁎⁎ .051 1708.27 1763.23 1800

Bangladesh's net cropped area including the survey areas in the present study Putting environmental resource-depleting consequences aside, it is evident that increasing abstraction of groundwater resources could have adverse income distributional consequences. This is because greater frequency of irrigation increases the cost of production that farmers with lower incomes are unlikely to afford. 4.4.3. Education Level Results from this study suggest that the household head's education level resulted in a weakly positive inclination to adopt direct-seeded rice (.002) and short duration and drought tolerant rice varieties (.005). It displayed a weak (− .003) preference against changing plantation date relative to no adaptation. Evidence from Africa where farmers with higher educational level were likely to adapt better to climate change (Deressa et al., 2009a,b) partially supports this finding. 4.4.4. Farm Size In this study, farm size had a statistically significant but numerically small positive impact on the probability of changing plantation dates (.006), and adopting water-saving non-rice and horticultural crops (.012). As large farm households are well resourced, they are more likely to adapt. These positive impacts of farm size on adopting various strategies are consistent with evidence from African studies (Bryan et al., 2009; Gbetibouo, 2009). As adaptation entails costs, larger farms are more likely to adapt earlier than smaller farms. Although farm-size has a positive impact on a number of adaptation strategies, most Bangladeshi farmers (about 70%, BBS, 2010) are small, marginal, and functionally landless (owning ≤ 0.2 ha), and cannot generate enough income to sustain their livelihood. 4.4.5. Ownership of Livestock In the present study, ownership of livestock had a positive impact on farm households' adjustment of planting dates (.036) and switch to water-saving non-rice and horticultural crops (.062). Thus, the latter was influenced 1.7 times as much as the former. This is consistent with the findings of Deressa et al. (2009a,b, 2011) that this variables encouraged adaptation to climate change. 4.4.6. Climate Information The present study found that farm household's access to prior climate information had a statistically significant negative impact on the decision to adopt water-saving non-rice and horticultural crops, and direct-seeded rice varieties. These negative effects could be due to unpredictable weather patterns, or farmers may perceive forecasts to

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211

Table 3 Estimated marginal effects from MNL model. Explanatory variables

Severe drought (1 = Yes, 0 = No) Severe ground water depletion (1 = Yes, 0 = No) Education (Years of schooling) Farm size (Total land area owned) Livestock ownership (1 = Yes, 0 = No) Access to climate information (1 = Yes, 0 = No) Access to subsidy (1 = Yes, 0 = No) Access to electricity for irrigation (1 = Yes, 0 = No)

Dependent variables (Adaptation strategies) Direct-seeded rice

More irrigation water for boro rice

Supplementary irrigation for aus and aman rice

Short duration and drought tolerant rice varieties

−.050*** .032***

−.119*** .099***

.073⁎⁎ −.102***

−.086*** .038

.018 .037⁎⁎

.300*** −.319***

.001 −.005 .011

−.001 −.006 −.010

.005⁎⁎ .004 −.024

−.003⁎⁎ .006*** .036⁎⁎

.001 .012*** .062⁎⁎

−.009

.025

−.007

−.037⁎⁎

−.050*** −.017

.058*** .085***

.002 −.074***

.044*** −.080***

.002⁎ .002 .005 −.028*** .003 .005

.066*** −.044⁎ .046⁎⁎

Changing planting dates and others

Water-saving non-rice and horticultural crops

Note: *p b .10; **p b .05; ***p b .01.

be unreliable. Climate variability encouraged the farmers to opt for more irrigation water for a boro rice crop because the weather is more predictable and reliable during boro season. This positive effect of access to climate information on selecting adaptation strategies is supported by other research (Deressa et al., 2009a,b; Nhemachena and Hassan, 2007). 4.4.7. Access to Subsidy This study found that access to subsidies discouraged households from increased abstraction of groundwater for boro (-.044) and supplementary irrigation for aus and aman rice crops (-.050). On the other hand, access to subsidy showed a positive effect on the adoption of short-duration and drought-tolerant rice varieties (.058) and water saving non-rice and horticultural crops (.044). This contrasts with Kurukulasuriya and Ajwad (2007) who found no evidence that subsidies significantly affected farm profitability for smallholder farming in Sri Lanka. 4.4.8. Access to Electricity Results showed that householders' access to electricity for operating irrigation pumps encouraged increased usage of groundwater irrigation water for boro rice crops (.046) and adoption of short-duration and drought-tolerant rice varieties (.085). The positive effect of access to electricity on adaptation is consistent with the results of Nhemachena and Hassan (2007) for South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe, and with the findings of Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn (2008a) for 11 African countries. The present study also found that householders' access to electricity had discouraged adopting strategies like changing planting dates (−.074) and switching to water-saving non-rice and horticultural crops (-.080). This may have been because it gave them a dependable access to groundwater irrigation for rice cropping. However, the use of electricity and diesel for running irrigation equipment for groundwater generates a carbon footprint. In the absence of recent data, it is difficult to assess the precise magnitude of the carbon footprint from irrigation in Bangladesh. Shah (2009b) found that groundwater pumping with electricity and diesel generates 4–6% of India's total carbon emissions and suggested that deep tube wells run by electricity left a disproportionately larger carbon footprint than any other power-driven irrigation technologies. 5. Conclusions and Policy Implications 5.1. Summary of Conclusions This study examined farmers' perceptions about climate change, and explored the determinants of adaptation decisions and adaptation

strategies in nine locations characterized by very high to moderate levels of drought severity and different degrees of groundwater depletion. Farmers' perceptions appeared consistent with the macro-level evidence of climate change in Bangladesh. The bulk of the farmers in the study areas adapted to climate change with a range of strategies that typified their decisions, faced barriers to adaptation, and suggested measures likely to relax constraints on them. The adaptive responses in the survey areas typified more a process of autonomous (action by farmers) and to a lesser extent planned (drought-resistant rice varieties). In addition, the adaptation strategies in the survey areas were mainly incremental (more irrigation for boro rice) than transformative (mango plantation in place of rice crops). Severity of drought, groundwater depletion, ownership of livestock and education level of the household-head underpinned farmers' decisions to adapt to climate change. Agricultural research-driven adaptation, including short duration varieties for aman and boro rice, drought tolerant rice varieties (4), and changing planting/harvesting dates of rice (5) were perceived as the most important adaptation strategies. Environmental resource-using adaptation such as more irrigation for boro rice (2) and supplementary irrigation for aus and aman rice crops (3) that entailed greater abstraction of groundwater resources were also important. The adaptation process also included switching to non-rice crops that require less water, and replacing rice cropping with mango plantations (6). Information and knowledge-related barriers including inadequate information about and knowledge of potential climate change and its impact, appropriate adaptation measures, and drought-tolerant rice varieties and technology were perceived as the most formidable. Resource constraints, including access to credit, and labour, and infrastructure-related factors e.g., inadequate irrigation facility and uninterrupted access to electricity for irrigation were no less formidable barriers to adaptation. Despite these perceived barriers to adaptation, farmers suggested some measures to overcome them. The most important was agricultural research-related outcomes (drought tolerant and short duration rice varieties); and strengthening support services (extension services, easier access to agricultural inputs, and dependable information of climate related issues). Farmers also advocated easier access to credit and provision for agricultural subsidy. The development of irrigation infrastructures should include the implementation of the proposed Uttar Rajshahi Irrigation project to overcome adaptation barriers. This would be step in the right direction in relieving some pressure on groundwater resources and represent a critically important ingredient of planned adaptation. However, given that the study areas 1–5 might be approaching physical water scarcity, of critical importance is efficient use of water regardless of the source of irrigation (e.g., ground or surface).

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5.2. Policy Implications The findings of this study have several policy implications for creating an enabling environment for adaptation to climate change for the farming community in Bangladesh. These include scientific breakthroughs, the provision of stronger support services for farmers, easier access to relevant information, and wider access to community-based farming education to facilitate more effective agronomic and crop cultural practices. The need for the development of drought-tolerant and shortmaturing varieties in the study area has prompted scientific breakthroughs in rice research. To its credit, the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) has released two drought-tolerant, high-yielding rice varieties – BRRIDhan-56 and BRRIDhan-57 – for the aman season in 2011 (BRRI, 2013, p. 11), although the development of short-maturing varieties is yet to make significant progress. However, a significant increase in investment in agricultural research and development from its current low level is required in order for Bangladesh to adapt and cope with the negative effects of climate change. Assisting farmers to put in place successful strategies to offset the effects of climate change warrants significantly stronger support services such as easier access for farmers to relevant information and improved extension services. Reliable forecasting of adverse climatic events such as droughts can also enhance farmers' preparedness to adapt to climate change. The Bangladesh Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization (SPARSO) could take a lead role in providing these forecasts. Government support in establishing closer linkages between agricultural support services and SAPRSO is also critically important. It would be useful to mention two recent government initiatives that could potentially alleviate the information- related issues. 5.2.1. Union Information and Services Centres (UISCs) The UISCs are newly established one-stop service outlets operating in all 4,501 Union Parishads (UP, lowest tier of local government) throughout the country. With information and communication technology (ICT), these centres are able to bring various types of information related to the government, livelihoods and private services to rural households. Run by local entrepreneurs, hosted by UPs, and supported by the central administration, UISCs can be a source of easier and more cost-effective access to information and services, including opportunities to learn about appropriate fertilizer and pesticide use for crops, access land records, learn English using digital resources, and access banking services. However, the quality of service from these centres depends critically on the quality of internet reception. While Bangladesh has come a long way in improving internet speeds, they remain slow compared with the standards of neighbouring countries. Nevertheless, the provision of these centres represents an institutional innovation that could ameliorate the conditions of rural life and help the rural community cope better with climate change. Realizing the potential of these centers warrants improvements in ICT services, including increased bandwidth, upgrades in the quality of computers and adequate training to service providers. 5.2.2. Union Agricultural Extension Services (UAESs) While union-level extension services have existed for decades, only in the last decade were they strengthened somewhat by reclassifying the officials as Sub Assistant Agricultural Officers (SSAOs). These officials attend to farmers' problems with pesticide and fertilizer use, and provide information about the newly released strains of rice developed by the research system. SSAOs also train farmers on improved crop culture, and agronomic practices, including water-saving methods. However, in reality, the implementation of these services appears to be somewhat different. A focus group discussion with farmers in Damurhuda (7, July 2013) suggested that these services fell short of expectations because of lack of their timely availability. Some farmers expressed reluctance to follow the advice of agricultural officials.

Moreover, they found that there was little coordination between UISCs and UAESs. Targeted assistance, such as subsidies may be more effective in helping low-income farmers. Given that subsidies play a significant role in implementing adaptation strategies, a more streamlined access to agricultural subsidies is required so that small and marginal farmers can receive targeted government subsidies. Moreover, there is a public perception that subsidy money is often misappropriated. For example, a subsidy allocated for small and marginal farmers, farmers with large holdings can manage to usurp it, at least partially by using powerful political connections to distort the system in their favour. This is reminiscent of the Myrdal (1970, pp. 220, 237) observation: …When policy measures have been instituted specifically aimed at ameliorating conditions for the lower-strata, they have either not been implemented or have been distorted so as to favor the notso-poor and to discriminate against the masses… However, in January 2010, the Bangladesh government took an initiative to help farmers open bank accounts, and started crediting subsidies directly to these accounts to minimise the impact of their misuses. Three years on, in 2012, 9.6 million customers had opened such accounts, typifying a burgeoning financial inclusiveness in rural Bangladesh (Bangladesh Bank, 2012, p. 9). Another institutional innovation in the form of a credit program for sharecropping farmers introduced in September 2009 has achieved significant success, with the small and marginal groups of farmers receiving access to formal credit markets, where before these initiatives were introduced, they received little or no financial support (Rahman, 2013). Hence, these two measures have the potential to provide smaller farmers with a financial wherewithal to adapt to climate change. The results of the present study suggested that uninterrupted electricity for running irrigation pumps is likely to be critically important for farmers to improve their adaptation measures, such as encouraging them to use more irrigation water for boro, and supplementary irrigation for aus and aman crops of rice. However, during the boro season, power supplies can sometimes be very unreliable. Given this, the government could use the Rural Electrification Board to provide a continuous electricity supply through the provision of a separate line for irrigation pumps to farmers as a high priority. The present results also showed that the farming community requires more education to enhance agronomic and crop management practices. Therefore, government support for such educational programs that help build awareness and enable farmers to adapt to climate change are likely to be effective. To facilitate these programs, where appropriate, the government could involve the relevant NGOs and international donors in such programs. The feasibility of switching to rabi crops, such as pulses (BARC, 2001) that use less water as an adaptation strategy depends on the financial attractiveness of the crop replacing the staple crop (rice), and on farm-size and financial support, such as subsidies. Hence, it seems that strengthening agricultural research and support systems would provide a more sustainable farm-level adaptation. In contrast to previous studies, the data used in this research came from a large number of observations across a range of districts and climatic zones that are highly representative of the drought-prone and groundwater-depleted areas of Bangladesh. This sample provides a scope to draw valid conclusions about the factors at work in the process of farm-level adaptation to climate change by Bangladeshi rice farmers. Thus, the findings could be relevant to regions with a declining supply of arable land per capita, intense population pressure on land, and high dependence on groundwater for irrigation. While the findings of the present study are substantial and revealing, it should be judged in the light of the caveat that it was based on one crop season from a limited number of areas. Research involving more areas with diversified cropping patterns, and crop seasons warrants

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