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Climate on leaders' minds
Pascal Rossignol / Reuters
Upfront
Europe hit by floods... A BARRAGE of heavy rain across France and Germany last week has forced thousands to evacuate their homes and left at least 10 people dead. One region received the equivalent of six weeks of rain in a single day. A weather phenomenon called an “omega block” is behind the deluge. In this case, air currents known as the jet stream have kinked in such a way as to create a large area of low pressure over western Europe. How this fits into the broader trend of a changing climate is unclear. Last week’s flooding event is “not unprecedented but it is unusual”, says a spokesperson at the Centre for Hydrology and Ecology in Wallingford, UK. Warming temperatures can make
the air hold more water – and that in turn could mean a greater chance for floods, says Nigel Arnell at the University of Reading, UK. Yet natural fluctuations obscure the effect that a long-term trend like climate change has on a single event. And there are other factors that might set the stage for more floods – for example, changes in land use. Also, shifting air currents – such as the current omega block – can be affected by things like temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean, ice cover in the Arctic, or air temperature variability in the tropics. “It’s less clear how that’s going to be affected by climate change,” Arnell says. However, he thinks it’s more likely than not that the risk of floods will increase in western Europe over time.
–Paris under water–
...as Oz is battered WHEN garden swimming pools are uprooted and washed into the sea, you know a storm is serious. That’s what happened in Sydney this week after the city was battered for two nights by ferocious winds, torrential rain and waves up to 8 metres high. As New Scientist went to press, four people had been killed, and there was widespread damage, flooding and disruption as the storm headed south, with flooding still set to peak in Tasmania. Luxury properties in Collaroy
“Climate change may mean more such storms near inhabited shorelines in the future – but fewer overall” Beach lost half their backyards – as well as that swimming pool – and the beach itself narrowed by 50 metres. Ian Turner, director of the Water Research Laboratory at the University of New South Wales, says sand levels on the beach dropped by between 2 and 5 metres, with 150 cubic metres 6 | NewScientist | 11 June 2016
washed back into the sea from every metre of the shoreline. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology warned last Friday that the storm would be unusually fierce because of a rare combination of monster waves – called king tides – and the usual seasonal low pressure zones called east coast lows that routinely develop at this time of year. In a commentary posted online, Acacia Pepler, who studies the effect of climate change on east coast lows at the University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre, said that there are usually seven or eight such lows per year. Her modelling studies suggest that the current storms aren’t a result of climate change. If anything, east coast lows will decline overall by 25 to 40 per cent by the end of the century, she says. But they may have a larger impact, becoming more frequent in warmer months, occurring closer to inhabited shorelines, and be boosted further if sea levels continue to rise. “That means more properties are vulnerable to storm surges,” she writes.
Quantum satellite IT’S the next step towards an unhackable global network. In the latest demo, a tiny CubeSat satellite has produced and measured photons that all have the same quantum properties. The test paves the way for satellites that could keep messages secure over longer distances than ever before, between New York and London, for example. Both parties could exchange encrypted messages, with the satellite beaming each
of them photons that they could use to create an uncrackable key. Even the satellite wouldn’t be able to eavesdrop on the messages – unlike current networks, which rely on trust. This test is the second attempt to launch a delicate quantum experiment into space by the team based at the National University of Singapore. But already things are going better than first time round – the equipment was on board an Antares rocket that exploded 6 seconds after launch in 2014.
Climate on leaders’ minds IT WOULD firmly put the Paris climate deal on the road to becoming a reality. In his meeting with US president Barack Obama on Tuesday, India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, was expected to announce that his country would ratify the 2015 Paris agreement to limit global warming. This would clear a key hurdle of needing nations accounting for at least 55 per cent of global carbon emissions to officially join, or ratify, the agreement before it takes effect.
Obama has already said he would use his executive power to get the US to ratify it. But India’s ability to meet its ambitious climate goals depends on US investment in India’s development of clean energy, experts said ahead of the meeting. India’s energy needs are huge: some 240 million people in the country still have no access to electricity. A clean-energy partnership was also on the discussion agenda for Modi and Obama’s meeting.
Upfront
Europe hit by floods... A BARRAGE of heavy rain across France and Germany last week has forced thousands to evacuate their homes and left at least 10 people dead. One region received the equivalent of six weeks of rain in a single day. A weather phenomenon called an “omega block” is behind the deluge. In this case, air currents known as the jet stream have kinked in such a way as to create a large area of low pressure over western Europe. How this fits into the broader trend of a changing climate is unclear. Last week’s flooding event is “not unprecedented but it is unusual”, says a spokesperson at the Centre for Hydrology and Ecology in Wallingford, UK. Warming temperatures can make
the air hold more water – and that in turn could mean a greater chance for floods, says Nigel Arnell at the University of Reading, UK. Yet natural fluctuations obscure the effect that a long-term trend like climate change has on a single event. And there are other factors that might set the stage for more floods – for example, changes in land use. Also, shifting air currents – such as the current omega block – can be affected by things like temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean, ice cover in the Arctic, or air temperature variability in the tropics. “It’s less clear how that’s going to be affected by climate change,” Arnell says. However, he thinks it’s more likely than not that the risk of floods will increase in western Europe over time.
–Paris under water–
...as Oz is battered WHEN garden swimming pools are uprooted and washed into the sea, you know a storm is serious. That’s what happened in Sydney this week after the city was battered for two nights by ferocious winds, torrential rain and waves up to 8 metres high. As New Scientist went to press, four people had been killed, and there was widespread damage, flooding and disruption as the storm headed south, with flooding still set to peak in Tasmania. Luxury properties in Collaroy
“Climate change may mean more such storms near inhabited shorelines in the future – but fewer overall” Beach lost half their backyards – as well as that swimming pool – and the beach itself narrowed by 50 metres. Ian Turner, director of the Water Research Laboratory at the University of New South Wales, says sand levels on the beach dropped by between 2 and 5 metres, with 150 cubic metres 6 | NewScientist | 11 June 2016
washed back into the sea from every metre of the shoreline. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology warned last Friday that the storm would be unusually fierce because of a rare combination of monster waves – called king tides – and the usual seasonal low pressure zones called east coast lows that routinely develop at this time of year. In a commentary posted online, Acacia Pepler, who studies the effect of climate change on east coast lows at the University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre, said that there are usually seven or eight such lows per year. Her modelling studies suggest that the current storms aren’t a result of climate change. If anything, east coast lows will decline overall by 25 to 40 per cent by the end of the century, she says. But they may have a larger impact, becoming more frequent in warmer months, occurring closer to inhabited shorelines, and be boosted further if sea levels continue to rise. “That means more properties are vulnerable to storm surges,” she writes.
Quantum satellite IT’S the next step towards an unhackable global network. In the latest demo, a tiny CubeSat satellite has produced and measured photons that all have the same quantum properties. The test paves the way for satellites that could keep messages secure over longer distances than ever before, between New York and London, for example. Both parties could exchange encrypted messages, with the satellite beaming each
of them photons that they could use to create an uncrackable key. Even the satellite wouldn’t be able to eavesdrop on the messages – unlike current networks, which rely on trust. This test is the second attempt to launch a delicate quantum experiment into space by the team based at the National University of Singapore. But already things are going better than first time round – the equipment was on board an Antares rocket that exploded 6 seconds after launch in 2014.
Climate on leaders’ minds IT WOULD firmly put the Paris climate deal on the road to becoming a reality. In his meeting with US president Barack Obama on Tuesday, India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, was expected to announce that his country would ratify the 2015 Paris agreement to limit global warming. This would clear a key hurdle of needing nations accounting for at least 55 per cent of global carbon emissions to officially join, or ratify, the agreement before it takes effect.
Obama has already said he would use his executive power to get the US to ratify it. But India’s ability to meet its ambitious climate goals depends on US investment in India’s development of clean energy, experts said ahead of the meeting. India’s energy needs are huge: some 240 million people in the country still have no access to electricity. A clean-energy partnership was also on the discussion agenda for Modi and Obama’s meeting.