- Email: [email protected]
Colloquium on modelling and geotherapy for global change
Conference reports The need for geotherapy Colloquium on Modelling and Geotherapy for Global Claude Bernard, Lyon, France, 14-17 May 1991
Sponsored by the Programme Interdisciplinaire de Recherche ‘Environnement’ (PIREN) of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), this colloquium gathered together representatives of biology, chemistry, engineering, geography, geology, mathematics, paleontology, philosophy and physics. For the first time at an international meeting, geotherapy, or care of the global ecosystem, was on the agenda. It is hoped this colloque can be repeated each year. A general concern expressed by participants was the lack of action to correct the greenhouse drift (build-up of atmospheric trace gases) and other global pollution. Enough studies have been done to show that a grave risk is being taken in not starting geotherapy, although scientists will never be 100% sure of the exact amount and rate of temperature or sea-level rise to expect in a particular region or over the whole globe. The three reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of 1990, while unsatisfactory especially because of their failure to recommend response strategies for climate change, have however made it clear that a scientific consensus exists on the greenhouse threat for the near future. That is, most scientists expect that significant Earth warming may occur in the 21st century. Participants also felt that a longer timescale perspective was needed: although essential, it is not enough to survive the 21st century ~ we have a responsibility to deliver an inhabitable Earth to our descendants in the 22nd century and beyond. Indeed, a perspective of hundreds and thousands, even millions, of years is helpful because we want our species and the biosphere to persist on this scale. In
66
Change,
Universitk
addition, study of the near and remote past reveals previous global environments and their changes and rates of change. Eric Buffetaut (Laboratoire de PalContologie des VertCbrCs, Paris) and Hugues Faure (Laboratoire de GCologie du Quaternaire, Marseilles) said that long-term studies were the only way to understand processes and possibilities for the future: they should be undertaken simultaneously with geotherapy. Functioning of the global Earth system remains inadequately known, in spite of the heroic efforts in the past few decades. Compared to biotechnology, space research or military developments, our science is embryonic.
Dissatisfaction Current use of modelling was criticized by Faure, Tom Goreau (Global Coral Reef Alliance, Chappaqua, NY).’ and Paolo Pirazzoli (Laboratoire de GCographie Physique, Meudon) because it often neglects validation by data from observation and experiment. To generate accurate models, the biogeochemical sources and sinks of climatically active gases must be known at least as well as the combustion sources. People with practical field experience were often dissatisfied with present models: they felt that direct field observations should be fully integrated into the models for better predictions. Atmospheric CO2 dynamic modelling and recent simulations on relative radiative forcing by CO* and other trace gases (CH4, CFC, N20) have promoted criticism of the use of ‘effective COZ’ to simulate the global contribution of these gases to Earth warming. Yves Lenoir (Association Bulle Bleue, Paris) stated that the economic sector, processes of origin,
GLOBAL
and the absorption profile of each gas should be taken into account in analyses and proposals for remedying climate change. Bernard Salvat (Laboratoire de Biologie Marine, UniversitC de Perpignan)’ and Goreau insisted that during the past decade bleaching in coral reefs, a major carbon-fixing ecosystem, has been spreading over tropical oceans at sites of observed elevated water temperatures. The bleaching was newly seen in Tahiti and other places in the Society Islands starting in March 1991; it re-appeared in early May 1991 in the Caribbean for the fourth of the last five years. These researchers say temperature stress is the most likely cause of the phenomenon. They believe research on coral bleaching is being neglected and suggest installing tropical observatories for monitoring. The IPCC group 1 report on sealevel rise was criticized by Pirazzoli as oversimplified. Many points over the globe are subsiding, some are rising, and the global average to be expected for CO2 doubling proposed by IPCC-1 should be re-evaluated. John Pernetta (Environmental and Climate Change Impact Assessment, Norfolk) stated that small archipelagic states are home to a large part of the world’s cultural and linguistic diversity.3 Global change threatens their survival. Although they have contributed little to the greenhouse drift, they may feel the first and eventually the worst impacts. Their forest, mangrove and coral ecosystems already exhibit sufficient sensitivity to rising sea level and temperature to justify remedial action. Correction of the greenhouse drift by reforestation is technically feasible and economically affordable, as shown by several published analyses. A trillion trees on 10 million km’ of land would however be required. Faure, Goreau, Grantham and Salvat agreed to work on a set of recommended concrete measures for controlling the greenhouse drift. Measures foreseen bear on: conserving species and ecosystems, especially forest and coral; curbing pollution from industrial and metropolitan waste dumps and releases; remedying
ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE
March 1992
Conference reports
soil degradation, desertification and land erosion by large-scale restoration of ecosystem productivity; assuring water quality and availability; and new steps in demographic control. Immediate steps could also involve biogas and wind energies as well as solar electricity and solar water heating and cooking. Biogas converts abundant waste materials into methane and fertilizer. George Matthews (Wimbourne Energy Consultancy, Dorset) saw it as having a double advantage, especially in rural areas, over alcohol since it supplies fertilizer and does not take up land needed for food crops. Experiments in Africa have shown, however, that many cultural habits favour the continued use of fossil-fuel energy.
(4
This
(e)
sequences. A global bioethics should be further developed geotherapy tion.
(0
in meetings at all lcvcls these principles.
choice will influence our future biological and cultural evolution: we cannot avoid it without grave con-
to guide and motivate and our cultural cvolu-
A root problem graphic’ canacitv
Richard lJniversit6
is cxccs.sive
growth: is hcinr
to apply
Grantham,
Claude
Bernard,
Viiieurbanne,
France
‘See this issue, pp 5-l 1. ‘See this Issue, pp 12-18.
demo-
Earth‘s carrying esceedcd. With
‘See this issue, pp 1%31 “Unanimously agreed by: C. Bernstein;
E.
Buffetaut; H. pa&e; G Fischer; T. Goreau; R. Grantham: T. Greenland: J. Gnnevald: Y. Lenoir; M. Leroux, E.G. Matthews; J: Pernetta; P. Plrazzoll; V.R. Potter; and B. Salvat.
(s)
The new Wicemists Second
World
II), Rotterdam,
Industry
Conference
the Netherlands,
on Environmental
April
Management
(WICEM
1997
Consensus Finally, participants questioned the capacity and will of society to undertake geotherapy. Jacques Grinevald (Institut Universitaire d’Etudes du DCveloppement, Geneva) observed a general agreement on the urgent need for a new science, one that is pluridisciplinary, to solve the world’s problems. An ethics based on respect for the biosphere implies both a science of the biosphere (ie Global Ecology) and a consciousness of the biosphere, which needs to be developed in all peoples in order to assure our survival and well-being. The colloquium ended with a unanimous consensus4 on the following Declaration, initiated by Van Rensselaer Potter (McArdle Laboratory for Cancer Research, University of Wisconsin Medical School, Madison) and Richard Grantham: Declaration bioethics (a)
(b)
Cc)
for geotherapy
and global
Accelerating environmental degradation threatens the habitabihty of the biosphere. We believe that corrective action is possible and urgent. Our goal is long-term survival in an acceptably maintained global ecosystem. We as human beings need to take full responsibility for our actions by not sacrificing natural resources for short-term gains and by working directly to make the world a better living place.
GLOBAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
During mid-April IYY1, hundreds of companies gathered in the Netherlands to commit themselves to a pledge for a ‘greener’ future. Many of the world’s biggest multinationals were represented, including Shell; BP; Texaco; Mobil; Philips Oil; ICI; Bayer; Dow Chemicals; Volkswagen; Volvo; and Unilever. Japanese firms were conspicuous by their absence. The pledge is intended to be big business’s positive input to this year’s ‘Earth Summit’ ~ the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED, Rio de Janeiro, June 1992). Green themes are increasingly prevalent on the finance and business pages of major newspapers such as the Guardian, lndeperldent,
Financial
Times,
Times,
Washingron
ternational
Herald
Post,
New
York
and the In-
Tribune.
Preparation for the ‘green pledge’ began in 1984, when the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) -which organized the Rotterdam meeting ~ held its first World Industry Conference on Environmental Management (WICEM I) in Versailles, hosted by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Participants at WICEM II were deluged by documents, including a number of salutory progress reports on developments since WICEM I. These were prepared by UNEP’s Paris-based Industry and
CHANGE
March 1992
Environment terviews wide and
Office,
with range
policy
;~nci drew
reprcscnt~ltivcs of
business,
institutions.
on infrom
;I
govcrnmcnt In as much
as
of WICEM I’s good intentiona have not home fruit, proq”cta for WICEM II’s green commandiiients are open to debate. The meeting was held at the slxxtacular ~ but envirolimcnt~llly conscious - World Trade Centre. It W;IS attended by over 700 Chief Executives. managing directors and senior managers from hundreds of conpanies, including doTens from dcveloping countries. The participant> worked together to finalize the agenda for the 1990s :~nd to launch ;I new lb-point ‘Business Charter for Sustainable Development that grew out of previous discussions at the IYYO Bergen Environment Conference.’ The representation of small and medium-sized business was considerable, especially in the form of the International Network for Environmental Management (INEM). a group headed by Dr George Winter of Itamburg, a pioneering green businessman and diamond tool cutter. WICEM II has the backing of UNEP, UNCED, and the European Commission (EC), as well as many business trade associations, like the Confederation of British Industry and the International Council of Chemical many
67
Sponsored by the Programme Interdisciplinaire de Recherche ‘Environnement’ (PIREN) of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), this colloquium gathered together representatives of biology, chemistry, engineering, geography, geology, mathematics, paleontology, philosophy and physics. For the first time at an international meeting, geotherapy, or care of the global ecosystem, was on the agenda. It is hoped this colloque can be repeated each year. A general concern expressed by participants was the lack of action to correct the greenhouse drift (build-up of atmospheric trace gases) and other global pollution. Enough studies have been done to show that a grave risk is being taken in not starting geotherapy, although scientists will never be 100% sure of the exact amount and rate of temperature or sea-level rise to expect in a particular region or over the whole globe. The three reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of 1990, while unsatisfactory especially because of their failure to recommend response strategies for climate change, have however made it clear that a scientific consensus exists on the greenhouse threat for the near future. That is, most scientists expect that significant Earth warming may occur in the 21st century. Participants also felt that a longer timescale perspective was needed: although essential, it is not enough to survive the 21st century ~ we have a responsibility to deliver an inhabitable Earth to our descendants in the 22nd century and beyond. Indeed, a perspective of hundreds and thousands, even millions, of years is helpful because we want our species and the biosphere to persist on this scale. In
66
Change,
Universitk
addition, study of the near and remote past reveals previous global environments and their changes and rates of change. Eric Buffetaut (Laboratoire de PalContologie des VertCbrCs, Paris) and Hugues Faure (Laboratoire de GCologie du Quaternaire, Marseilles) said that long-term studies were the only way to understand processes and possibilities for the future: they should be undertaken simultaneously with geotherapy. Functioning of the global Earth system remains inadequately known, in spite of the heroic efforts in the past few decades. Compared to biotechnology, space research or military developments, our science is embryonic.
Dissatisfaction Current use of modelling was criticized by Faure, Tom Goreau (Global Coral Reef Alliance, Chappaqua, NY).’ and Paolo Pirazzoli (Laboratoire de GCographie Physique, Meudon) because it often neglects validation by data from observation and experiment. To generate accurate models, the biogeochemical sources and sinks of climatically active gases must be known at least as well as the combustion sources. People with practical field experience were often dissatisfied with present models: they felt that direct field observations should be fully integrated into the models for better predictions. Atmospheric CO2 dynamic modelling and recent simulations on relative radiative forcing by CO* and other trace gases (CH4, CFC, N20) have promoted criticism of the use of ‘effective COZ’ to simulate the global contribution of these gases to Earth warming. Yves Lenoir (Association Bulle Bleue, Paris) stated that the economic sector, processes of origin,
GLOBAL
and the absorption profile of each gas should be taken into account in analyses and proposals for remedying climate change. Bernard Salvat (Laboratoire de Biologie Marine, UniversitC de Perpignan)’ and Goreau insisted that during the past decade bleaching in coral reefs, a major carbon-fixing ecosystem, has been spreading over tropical oceans at sites of observed elevated water temperatures. The bleaching was newly seen in Tahiti and other places in the Society Islands starting in March 1991; it re-appeared in early May 1991 in the Caribbean for the fourth of the last five years. These researchers say temperature stress is the most likely cause of the phenomenon. They believe research on coral bleaching is being neglected and suggest installing tropical observatories for monitoring. The IPCC group 1 report on sealevel rise was criticized by Pirazzoli as oversimplified. Many points over the globe are subsiding, some are rising, and the global average to be expected for CO2 doubling proposed by IPCC-1 should be re-evaluated. John Pernetta (Environmental and Climate Change Impact Assessment, Norfolk) stated that small archipelagic states are home to a large part of the world’s cultural and linguistic diversity.3 Global change threatens their survival. Although they have contributed little to the greenhouse drift, they may feel the first and eventually the worst impacts. Their forest, mangrove and coral ecosystems already exhibit sufficient sensitivity to rising sea level and temperature to justify remedial action. Correction of the greenhouse drift by reforestation is technically feasible and economically affordable, as shown by several published analyses. A trillion trees on 10 million km’ of land would however be required. Faure, Goreau, Grantham and Salvat agreed to work on a set of recommended concrete measures for controlling the greenhouse drift. Measures foreseen bear on: conserving species and ecosystems, especially forest and coral; curbing pollution from industrial and metropolitan waste dumps and releases; remedying
ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE
March 1992
Conference reports
soil degradation, desertification and land erosion by large-scale restoration of ecosystem productivity; assuring water quality and availability; and new steps in demographic control. Immediate steps could also involve biogas and wind energies as well as solar electricity and solar water heating and cooking. Biogas converts abundant waste materials into methane and fertilizer. George Matthews (Wimbourne Energy Consultancy, Dorset) saw it as having a double advantage, especially in rural areas, over alcohol since it supplies fertilizer and does not take up land needed for food crops. Experiments in Africa have shown, however, that many cultural habits favour the continued use of fossil-fuel energy.
(4
This
(e)
sequences. A global bioethics should be further developed geotherapy tion.
(0
in meetings at all lcvcls these principles.
choice will influence our future biological and cultural evolution: we cannot avoid it without grave con-
to guide and motivate and our cultural cvolu-
A root problem graphic’ canacitv
Richard lJniversit6
is cxccs.sive
growth: is hcinr
to apply
Grantham,
Claude
Bernard,
Viiieurbanne,
France
‘See this issue, pp 5-l 1. ‘See this Issue, pp 12-18.
demo-
Earth‘s carrying esceedcd. With
‘See this issue, pp 1%31 “Unanimously agreed by: C. Bernstein;
E.
Buffetaut; H. pa&e; G Fischer; T. Goreau; R. Grantham: T. Greenland: J. Gnnevald: Y. Lenoir; M. Leroux, E.G. Matthews; J: Pernetta; P. Plrazzoll; V.R. Potter; and B. Salvat.
(s)
The new Wicemists Second
World
II), Rotterdam,
Industry
Conference
the Netherlands,
on Environmental
April
Management
(WICEM
1997
Consensus Finally, participants questioned the capacity and will of society to undertake geotherapy. Jacques Grinevald (Institut Universitaire d’Etudes du DCveloppement, Geneva) observed a general agreement on the urgent need for a new science, one that is pluridisciplinary, to solve the world’s problems. An ethics based on respect for the biosphere implies both a science of the biosphere (ie Global Ecology) and a consciousness of the biosphere, which needs to be developed in all peoples in order to assure our survival and well-being. The colloquium ended with a unanimous consensus4 on the following Declaration, initiated by Van Rensselaer Potter (McArdle Laboratory for Cancer Research, University of Wisconsin Medical School, Madison) and Richard Grantham: Declaration bioethics (a)
(b)
Cc)
for geotherapy
and global
Accelerating environmental degradation threatens the habitabihty of the biosphere. We believe that corrective action is possible and urgent. Our goal is long-term survival in an acceptably maintained global ecosystem. We as human beings need to take full responsibility for our actions by not sacrificing natural resources for short-term gains and by working directly to make the world a better living place.
GLOBAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
During mid-April IYY1, hundreds of companies gathered in the Netherlands to commit themselves to a pledge for a ‘greener’ future. Many of the world’s biggest multinationals were represented, including Shell; BP; Texaco; Mobil; Philips Oil; ICI; Bayer; Dow Chemicals; Volkswagen; Volvo; and Unilever. Japanese firms were conspicuous by their absence. The pledge is intended to be big business’s positive input to this year’s ‘Earth Summit’ ~ the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED, Rio de Janeiro, June 1992). Green themes are increasingly prevalent on the finance and business pages of major newspapers such as the Guardian, lndeperldent,
Financial
Times,
Times,
Washingron
ternational
Herald
Post,
New
York
and the In-
Tribune.
Preparation for the ‘green pledge’ began in 1984, when the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) -which organized the Rotterdam meeting ~ held its first World Industry Conference on Environmental Management (WICEM I) in Versailles, hosted by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Participants at WICEM II were deluged by documents, including a number of salutory progress reports on developments since WICEM I. These were prepared by UNEP’s Paris-based Industry and
CHANGE
March 1992
Environment terviews wide and
Office,
with range
policy
;~nci drew
reprcscnt~ltivcs of
business,
institutions.
on infrom
;I
govcrnmcnt In as much
as
of WICEM I’s good intentiona have not home fruit, proq”cta for WICEM II’s green commandiiients are open to debate. The meeting was held at the slxxtacular ~ but envirolimcnt~llly conscious - World Trade Centre. It W;IS attended by over 700 Chief Executives. managing directors and senior managers from hundreds of conpanies, including doTens from dcveloping countries. The participant> worked together to finalize the agenda for the 1990s :~nd to launch ;I new lb-point ‘Business Charter for Sustainable Development that grew out of previous discussions at the IYYO Bergen Environment Conference.’ The representation of small and medium-sized business was considerable, especially in the form of the International Network for Environmental Management (INEM). a group headed by Dr George Winter of Itamburg, a pioneering green businessman and diamond tool cutter. WICEM II has the backing of UNEP, UNCED, and the European Commission (EC), as well as many business trade associations, like the Confederation of British Industry and the International Council of Chemical many
67