Computer-aided project evaluation for chemical process plants

Computer- aided project evaluation for chemical

process plants F E Rodriguez-Miaja and M E Leesley,

A necessary parallel function to any design activity for a chemical process plant is its economic evaluation. Design projects must satisfy the requirements o f such appraisals, so that commercial feasibility o f proposed processes can be maintained. Economic assessments are often repetitive, using different levels o f precision and different information bases. First, a proposed configuration is examined for feasibility, then alternative processes are compared as the process idea develops from its origin towards detailed design and ultimate realization. Throughout the life o f a project, several evaluations are made to provide design engineers with the following requirements: • • • • •

Equipment item and total plant cost estimates Operation cost estimates Manufacturing cost estimates Profitability analyses Sensitivity analyses to both economic and design parameters

This paper describes the use o f a computer program for project evaluations which can be used by process designers and cost engineers to obtain reliable cost estimates for proposed processes.

ECONOMIST is an element of the UT-CONCEPT system I . It was originally conceived at the University of Cambridge, UK and later completely rewritten at the CAD Centre, Cambridge, UK, applying the concepts of engineering economics to satisfy the requirements of the chemical and oil industries. Its industrial use has been widely demonstrated 2, and it was recently purchased for noncommercial purposes by the University of Texas at Austin. During its implementation at The University of Texas, it was found necessary to rewrite major portions of the code because of differences in the hardware systems. This opportunity was taken to alter ECONOMIST to make its input and output more comprehensive to the engineering user. The ECONOMIST system is a set of highly efficient programs operating in conversational mode to achieve direct man-computer communication. It is a userPycorsa, Tiber No 66, Mexico S, DF Mexico. *Department of Chemical Engineering,The University of Texasat Austin, Texas 78712, USA

volume 11 number I january 1979

oriented software system, with sophisticated executive programs and routines that produce consistent evaluations, enabling an improved means of process screening and allowing the design engineer to examine rapidly and easily the economic consequences of any process operation or financial change. The ECONOMIST system comprises the following fully interactive phases: •

• • •

ERONT-END phase INTERFACE phase ECONOMISTONE phase ECONOMIST TWO phase

The organizational structure of the ECONOM IST system is shown in Figure I. FRONT-END

PHASE

FRONT-END is a data-preparation program with which the user can interactively incorporate all necessary process design and utility consumption data into the ECONOMIST system. This phase is accessed when ECONOMIST is used as a standalone program and not when it operates in an integrated mode with process simulators. The data handled in FRONT-END for further phases of ECONOMIST fall into the following categories: •

Process data: process design information used to esti-

mate equipment costs (design pressures, temperatures, heat transfer areas, heat duties, power consumptions, throughputs, vessel diameters and heights, number and efficiency of stages in contact, operations, etc.) • Utility data: utility prices and consumptions used to estimate operating and manufacturing costs (low- and high-pressure steam, cooling and process water, air, gas, electricity, fuel etc.) Either or both types of data may be provided in the FRONTEND phase, depending on the desired extent of the economic evaluation. When the FRONT-END phase is complete, if only process data are present, control is transferred to the ECONOMIST ONE phase. If only utility data are present, control can only be transferred to the ECONOMIST TWO phase. INTERFACE

PHASE

INTERFACE is another data-preparation program that links ECONOMIST to the CONCEPT system for process plant

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simulations ~. it can only be accessed mrough the DIALOG phase off CONCEPT, and cannot be activated if ECONO ~ MIST is to be used as a standa[one system, since oni-, one of the data-preparation programs can be used before transferring control to ECONOMIST ONE or ECONOMIST TWO. The choice is determined by the mode of operation and the degree of integration desired between the two systems. Once a preliminary fiowsheet is ready and a materia', and energy balance for the steady state is available fur a proposed configuration, CONCEPT generates a file containing stream information and design parameters of each unit modei within the simulation. The INTERFACE phase accepts CONCEPT output files as its basic information source and then interactively accepts from ~he user any supplementary information required. The following steps are generally needed: Aliocation of costing subroutines to aJi the units of the process simulation ¢ insertion of equipment items which may piay no pa~t in the urocess simulation, but which cannot be neglected in the costing system (such as storage units and startup equipment) e Elimination of units included only For caiculation purposes in the process simulation, but with no physical existence (such as stream mixers and dividers) e Provision oi: design information which dues not arise in the process simulation (such. as vessel heights and diameters).

ECONOMIST ONE PHASE ECONOMIST ONE is the capitaDcost sstimation phase c.-~ the ECONOMIST system, tt can oniy be accessed if process

(either FRONT-END or I N T E R F A C E ~n ECONOMIST ONE, cost dat_~ :~cessary fl.)r ;~he avaiuation are supplied interactivciv. These d~ta inc!ude cost indexes, material and equipment-typic specifications. the kind of materials hand)ed in ti~,.::pi.~mI (solids, fluids or both), design and offsite facility costs (such as b!owdown, flare a.nd pollution controi svs:ems), currency to bc used and exchange rate between different cqrrencies. Tara! plant costs are caiculated bv applying cert,.in co~'rcct on factors to the sum of purchased equipment costs for every item within battery !imits. Purchased costs (or deiivcred equipment costs) are compiled from commercial pricing data as published in d'~c literature, as a function of design, structure and material of construction speci fications4 . Correcfio~ factors take into ~.ccu.'..~L ~he material and ~.o.:ur costs, field costs (piping, cur,,.; etc, sLeel, instrurnentation~ eJcctrica) wiring, insulz~.t.ton~paint~ ~:tc.) and nstailation costs (material setting ~u~dequipmen~ .:rect[on). Seve:'-a! costing methods are ava~b~bi~:!or capita~-cost ~.~s~mqation, including .~ Method o f over, I/mu/t/p//ers: this method sums the costs of individually parchascd cquipmerd, a~sd applies an ow.'.rall factor to cst]m£:te the tot;~i p~ant :auto The factors range from 3.!0 :c> 4.74, depend;n~ ~ the kind of materials hand!ed m ihe p!ant s and ~.hey do not include provislons f.'~ ~and or onginecrin~ sours ~ .v]etho# oY corre/dtio~ f~(;toi.,:: Lhls method also sum~ the costs of individually deiiverud equipment and .,ppiies an overall multiplier t9 ::-st;mate the total pia~t zest ~ Howevcr, the overa[! mu!':ip'ier o, corre'~ation

which can only be entered if utility data are present, requires additional cost data for the evaluation. These data include information on labour charges, depreciation type, plant life, salvage value and provisions for inflation or cash-flow changes. This phase takes into account two different cost groups: fixed costs (throughput-independent) and variable costs (throughput-dependent). Operating labour (payroll) and supplies, general plant overheads, taxes and insurance are considered as fixed costs. Total utility costs, the cost of process materials (chemicals, catalysts, etc.) and the cost of raw materials are considered as variable costs. Depreciation is not so simple to evaluate, primarily because government legislation dictates the evaluation methods to be used. Since it is obviously investment-related, it can be considered as a fixed cost I°. Once all the data have been organized and operating and manufacturing costs have been estimated, annual cash flows are computed and discounted. The commercial feasibility of a project is measured using economic 'yardsticks' chosen for their advantage in showing the time value of money 11. Thus, present value, net present value and discounted cash flow rate of return of the project are calculated in ECONOMIST

factor is calculated as a function of the average unit cost (the total cost of purchased equipment divided by the number of main plant items) • Method of installation factors: this is not an overall method. Instead, particular multipliers supplied by the user are applied to include the cost of installing individual pieces of equipment (erection, piping, instrumentation, electrical, civil, structural costs, etc.), generally expressed as fractions of purchased equipment costs 7. Installed costs are obtained by applying these individual factors to the base cost of each item of equipment, defined as the price of the unit constructed in carbon steel to operate at normal temperatures and

pressures. ECONOMIST ONE gives the user total control over capital-cost estimation, since any combination of specifications can be analysed and modified, if desired, by overriding any previous set of data 8 . It is especially valuable to be able to update information, such as base year and current year cost indexes, since correctly using these parameters eliminates the need to forecast future costs. The program allows the user to incorporate selfdeveloped equipment costing subroutines easily and confidently, to account for special equipment items not provided in the standard library. Provisions are also made for introducing the known estimated cost of an item not included in the routine library, but for which an independent estimate or quotation is available.

TWO. Design changes can be classified as minor and major changes, according to the following criteria. Minor changes refer to modifications in parameters that affect operating and manufacturing costs, producing a net effect on the economic results of the project. (These parameters include plant capacity, total fixed investment, process material costs and amounts, construction and startup time, sales expenses, labour hourly-rates, number of labour shifts per day, maintenance costs, r~w material costs and amounts, utility costs and

ECONOMIST TWO PHASE ECONOMIST TWO is the project-evaluation phase of the ECONOMIST system, estimating operating and manufacturing costs, and analysing profitability and sensitivity from the process-plant economics model. This phase,

Cooling water

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Figure 2. Process flow diagram for methanol synthesis plant

volume 11 number I january 1979

7

amounts, plant lifetime, salvage value of process equipment, product selling price, corporation tax rate and working capital.) Maior changes refer to modificaNons in process or utility specifications that affect capitai and operating costs, producing a net effect on the total investment and on the economic results of the proiect. (These specifications include materials of construction, type of drivers for mechanical equipment, type of fuel in burners, type of heat-exchanger designations, componea~ arrangements, details of construction, geometry, positior:, description of internals, steam-pressure levels and coolingwater approaches.) The program allows the user to incorporate design changes by manipulating the data used in the simuiation at ail levels. The sensitivity analysis provided in ECONOM ]ST TWO aliows an economical evaluation of minor changes, indicating variations on the rate cf return, present value and net present value due to single modifications in each of the parameters, lr., such a way, selling price and sales-volume profiles can a!so be investigated. However, since major changes modify the capital-cost estimation of the total plant, such design changes have to be incorporated at the ECONOMIST ONE ievei, before economic results are obtained. Provisions for such data manipulations are aiso available.

APPLiCATiON

OF E C O N O I ~ t S T

A study has been conducted ~2 for a methanol piant ~aseJ on gas synthetized by steam-reforming natural gas. The design has been limited to the methanol synthesis loop ant purification, assuming that synthesis gas is availabie from the reforming section of the plant, and that crude methanol from the distillation section is delivered for pipeline transportation. The process flow diagram is shown in Figure 2. The plant processes 3 650 kgmole/h of a feed containing carbon monoxide: carbon dioxide, hydrogen and methane and the product stream is composed of crude methanol of 99 mole % purity, water being the major impurity. The methanol synthesis plant was simulated using CONCEPT for the entire process and ECONOMIST for the economic evaluation. The plug-flow fixed-bed cata!ytic reactor subroutine came from an externa! source, since none of the standard unit modules in CONCEPT's library could be used for simulating the reaction unit. A literature survey was conducted to coliect all the thermodynamic data for methanol, since this component is not included in the standard databank provided with the CONCEPT system. The data input and the results of the economic simulation produced by ECONOMIST are shown in the Appendix. Table ! compares the capital-cost estimation provided by ECONOM IST with pricing information supplied by equipment vendors, obtained from published data 4 and adjusted to the current year (midq 978) using Chemicai Engineering Plant Cost Mdexes9 o

The ECONOMiST system provlaes: : Efficient conversationa[ operation (wkh ah"ect ang;nee: computer communication) that makes it easy to use, robust and flexible

8

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:~ Zas}. an-~ e!ticien~ aa~a inFu~. £fficient and flexib[e data hano i% :fficient ~ata-fHe ha~dhng ~ : a s y incorporation of users' oven cost socre,aNons Liasy recording of aH intermediate and final resuits ~rd decisions. e, Sho,rt Lraining periods, since ~.be ~,ste~i is easy to :earl}

Tm:se re:iuce the expense of economic studies in aes[gn proiects by increasing efficiency and decreasing ~:he time ~nd effort required in such studies. Using :-r, , ~r-~M W-~ :esdts in ~he foi!owing advantages: Production of consisten~ evaiuations that help tasks e,7 process screening qssistance for the process engineer to exam!he quickly ~md easily the econom{c consequences of any process :,~eration or Financial change '-roduction of records containing al~ ~ria~ decisions ~r,d fina! resuits in a concise and ~:::~sy-to~readmanner On .~e other hand, users will normad~, come across few :)itfai;s whi~e using this system. 5one of the most important are as foi~ows: ~ Only standard equipment ~nodu;es are included in Lhe -,'/stem's Hbrary of cost sub;'o~,tines. Time and experi.snce are required to write and ir~corporate FORTRAN ~broutines for speciai items of equipment e .kh data are manipu&ted in Si ,a~its. This requires the ~ser to familiarize himseff with the metric system to :ncorporate data from process simulations with CON:EPT, to evatuate economic res~i>s of process changes, and to incorporate seJfdeveioped cost correlations (even .; ougn r..,,nit-conversior <, ~,-,~* , ~ ~.,,.cv,~..are_ availab!e .~¢,such .o~re[ations are in the Imperial un{~s} ,£xchange rates for foreign currt~~c cs are !imked to .;S Dollars and Pounds Sterling. :Miv]dua[ installation factors at<'., c,rrent-year cos~: :::Jexes -,must be determined by :!-~¢ ~.:suraccording to :is own experience, unless unsophist;cated costing -nethods and base-year cost are ,~sed

x ~ % o u ~ec-alQeQ ~ s i 2

Engineering economics terminology and projectevaluation methods must be familiar in general terms to the user.

APPENDIX. DATA INPUT AND RESULTS PRODUCED BY ECONOMIST • ~e,,,,,

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CONCLUSIONS An economics simulation using ECONOMIST starts with a proposed flowsheet, with material and energy balances, and leads the design engineer step by step through the estimation of total plant costs and manufacturing costs, to the point where decisions can be taken on the profitability and ultimate feasibility of the proposed process. The use of interactive economics evaluation systems, integrated with process-simulation systems such as CONCEPT, has been demonstrated. Such an interactive system is useful when investigating the profitability of a proposed process configuration and its sensitivity to changes in design parameters or cost items. Furthermore, the flexibility of the ECONOMIST system in adopting new features and its accuracy in predicting capital costs, makes it a powerful tool for designing chemical process plants.

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REFERENCES ] Leesley, M E, Buchmann, A P and Mulraney, D D 'An approach to a largely integrated system for computeraided design of chemical process plants' Int. Congress Contribution of computers to the development of chemical engineering and industrial chemistry, Paris (March 1978)

UNIT U T I L I I Y

6 Wilson, G T 'Capital investment for chemical plants' Dr. Chem. Engng Process Techno/. Vol 16 No 10 (1971) p 931 7 Hand, W E 'From flow sheet to cost estimate' Petro/eum Refiner Vol 37 No 9 (1958) p 331 8 Kelen, T F and Hutchison, H P 'Interactive techniques for project evaluation in chemical engineering' Syrup. European Federation of Chemical Engineering Erlangen FDR (1974) 9 Holland, F A, Watson, F A and Wilkinson, J K 'How to estimate capital costs' Chem. Engng Vol 81 No 7 (1974) p 71 10 Chilton, C H 'Process labour requirements' Chem. Engng Vol 58 No 2 (1951) p 151 11 Allen, D H Economic evaluation of projects Institution of Chemical Engineers, London (1972)

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5 Lang, H J series of papers Chem. Engng Vol 54 (October 1947) p 117; Vol 54 (September 1947) p 130 and Vol 55 (June 1948) p 112

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3 Winter, P, Leesley, M E, Hutchison, H P and Bending, M J 'The CONCEPT method of complex plant simulation' Syrup. European Federation of Chemical Engineering Erlangen, FDR (1974) 4 Gutherie, K M 'Capital cost estimating' Chem. Engng Vol 76 No 6 (March 1969) p 114

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12 Rodriguez-Miaja, F E M S Thesis, The University of Texas at Austin (1978)

volume 11 number 1 january 1979

9

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ComputerAided Design/ Manufacture Specialist The Vehicle Instrumentation Division of Smiths Industries is the UK's largest manufacturer of vehicle instrumentation. We supply companies such as Chrysler, Fiat, Ford, Leyland, Renault and Volvo. A Specialist is required to implement the Division's forward plans in the use of CAD, and lead into CAM. This post has been created to help the Division fulfil its commitment to reducing timescales for product design and sample manufacture of Vehicle Instrumentation Assemblies. Applicants should be capable of analysing problems relating to the use of CAD/M and be able to write suitable programmes to provide solutions. They should also have an ability to communicate and train staff in the use of these techniques. Previous experience of work on CAD systems and preferably CAM is desirable. The position carries a competitive salary and the benefits normally associated with a large company. Please write or phone for an application form and Job Specification to: John Mason, Employment Officer,

SMITHS INDUSTRIES LIMITED VEHICLE INSTRUMENTATION DIVISION Cricklewood Works, London NW2. Tel: 01-452 3333 ext: 2651

volume 11 number 1 january 1979

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