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Conflicting objectives in decisions
432
Books
Indeed the railways played a crucial role. The US single-track system required careful scheduling to achieve growing speeds: the vast scale of operation produced the first organisational hierarchies in US business. These structures became the models for future industrial enterprises. For example, in accounting and book-keeping, the rail companies were the first in 1850 to make the clear distinction between construction (and capital) costs and the operating accounts. Metal
connections
The telegraph accelerated the transformation of distribution, by speeding the integration of widely dispersed activities. “The railroad and the telegraph marched across the continent in
unison.” Add the telephone and it was not surprising that all three communications networks were associated with the same influential names The replacement of owner-managed capitalism by managerial capitalism had little political support among the US electorate, who felt that the concentrated economic power wielded by such enterprises violated basic democratic values. The managers were not required to be accountable for their uses of power. Legislative actions against bigbusiness enterprises were led by merchants and other businessmen who felt their economic interests were threatened. Chandler’s book enjoyably illuminates the pattern of events and forces that shaped, and will continue to shape, society.
Experts make the best judgements Lawrence D. Phillips Conjiicting Objectives in Decisions edited by David E. Bell, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa 442 pages, $17.50, E13.50 (New York and Chichester,
John
Wiley
for IIASA,
1977)
Futures readers are no doubt aware of the great increase in interest in models of decision making with multiple objectives since the publication of Keeney and Raiffa’s important book on this topic in 1976.l The interested reader who is new to the topic should certainly read that book before delving into the book reviewed here, else he or she will be left with the impression that fearful mathematical complexities must first be understood before any applications will be possible. Lawrence D. Phillips is Director of the Decision Analysis Unit, School of Social Sciences, Brunei University, Kingston Lane, Uxbridge UB8 3PH, Middlesex, UK.
At least, that is the impression created by the first section of the book, on methodology. Twelve papers, from a workshop held at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, 20-24 October 1975, make up this section. They cover a variety of topics: models that help the decision maker to select good decision options in the light of the decision maker’s preferences for some consequences rather than others; methods for structuring one’s preferences; problems in the elicitation of preferences; and models for structuring preferences over time. With hindsight, it is easy to see that some of these papers were approaching their subjects from a viewpoint that is less satisfactory than the framework provided by Keeney and Raiffa in 1976. But prepublication manuscripts of that book were obviously not available to all the participants.
FUTURES
October 1979
Books
I found the second part of the book, on applications, easier going and more interesting. Most of these authors used decision analysis in its multiattribute form as the basic model for their problem. An impressive variety of problems is reported: social decision making in adversary groups, capitalinvestment appraisal, evaluation of potential sites for nuclear-power facilities, public planning and decision processes, environmental-pollution control, selection of trajectories for spacecraft and forest-pest management. The reader looking for simple models will not find them here. If nothing else, these papers show that the application of decision analysis
433
is not easy. Careful attention must be given to the structuring of the problem, and elicitation of judgemental inputs requires care and constant checking for consistency. Indeed, one may be left with the impression that these sorts of decision models are best left to the experts to develop. Perhaps this feeling reflects the strongly held belief that where human judgement and decision making are concerned, we are all experts. This book goes some way toward shaking that belief. Reference 1. R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, De&ions with Multiple Objectives (New York, John
Wiley, 1976).
More homework suggested Ernest Braun The Future with Microelectronics Iann Barron and Ray Curnow 243 pages, L7.95 (London, Frances Pinter, 1978) This is obviously an important book on a topical and worrying subject. It is also a most curious book, perhaps because it was originally written as a research report and then hurriedly rushed out for publication. Unfortunately, it totally lacks all references to other work or sources of information and says very little about the methods used in making forecasts. The result is a book which reads as if it were produced by a computer-full of spuriously authoritative statements on matters which are highly speculative and often debatable. The impression of computerisation is enhanced by an uneasy style, marred by not a few signs of hurry. I recommend that the reader should skip the Ernest Braun is head of the Technology Policy Unit at the University of Aston, Gosta Green, Birmingham B4 7ET, UK. With Stuart MacDonald, he wrote Revolution in Miniature (London, Cambridge University Press, 1978).
FUTURES
29
October lB79
introductory summary-things get a lot better. The bulk of the book is concerned with detailed forecasts of technological developments that might be expected in information technology in the short, medium, and long term. By information technology is meant everything to do with the gathering, storage, processing, transmission, and accessing of information The authors regard information as a commodity, similar to energy, and feel that it should and will be treated as such. Although I disagree with some of their more philosophical conclusions, eg the analogy between information and energy rather than entropy, their views on technological developments command attention. They believe that most information will be stored and displayed by microelectronic devices of some kind and that manv of our paper-based activities will eventually disappear. In consequence, they pinpoint technologies that need attention, eg easily readable display devices.
Books
Indeed the railways played a crucial role. The US single-track system required careful scheduling to achieve growing speeds: the vast scale of operation produced the first organisational hierarchies in US business. These structures became the models for future industrial enterprises. For example, in accounting and book-keeping, the rail companies were the first in 1850 to make the clear distinction between construction (and capital) costs and the operating accounts. Metal
connections
The telegraph accelerated the transformation of distribution, by speeding the integration of widely dispersed activities. “The railroad and the telegraph marched across the continent in
unison.” Add the telephone and it was not surprising that all three communications networks were associated with the same influential names The replacement of owner-managed capitalism by managerial capitalism had little political support among the US electorate, who felt that the concentrated economic power wielded by such enterprises violated basic democratic values. The managers were not required to be accountable for their uses of power. Legislative actions against bigbusiness enterprises were led by merchants and other businessmen who felt their economic interests were threatened. Chandler’s book enjoyably illuminates the pattern of events and forces that shaped, and will continue to shape, society.
Experts make the best judgements Lawrence D. Phillips Conjiicting Objectives in Decisions edited by David E. Bell, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa 442 pages, $17.50, E13.50 (New York and Chichester,
John
Wiley
for IIASA,
1977)
Futures readers are no doubt aware of the great increase in interest in models of decision making with multiple objectives since the publication of Keeney and Raiffa’s important book on this topic in 1976.l The interested reader who is new to the topic should certainly read that book before delving into the book reviewed here, else he or she will be left with the impression that fearful mathematical complexities must first be understood before any applications will be possible. Lawrence D. Phillips is Director of the Decision Analysis Unit, School of Social Sciences, Brunei University, Kingston Lane, Uxbridge UB8 3PH, Middlesex, UK.
At least, that is the impression created by the first section of the book, on methodology. Twelve papers, from a workshop held at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, 20-24 October 1975, make up this section. They cover a variety of topics: models that help the decision maker to select good decision options in the light of the decision maker’s preferences for some consequences rather than others; methods for structuring one’s preferences; problems in the elicitation of preferences; and models for structuring preferences over time. With hindsight, it is easy to see that some of these papers were approaching their subjects from a viewpoint that is less satisfactory than the framework provided by Keeney and Raiffa in 1976. But prepublication manuscripts of that book were obviously not available to all the participants.
FUTURES
October 1979
Books
I found the second part of the book, on applications, easier going and more interesting. Most of these authors used decision analysis in its multiattribute form as the basic model for their problem. An impressive variety of problems is reported: social decision making in adversary groups, capitalinvestment appraisal, evaluation of potential sites for nuclear-power facilities, public planning and decision processes, environmental-pollution control, selection of trajectories for spacecraft and forest-pest management. The reader looking for simple models will not find them here. If nothing else, these papers show that the application of decision analysis
433
is not easy. Careful attention must be given to the structuring of the problem, and elicitation of judgemental inputs requires care and constant checking for consistency. Indeed, one may be left with the impression that these sorts of decision models are best left to the experts to develop. Perhaps this feeling reflects the strongly held belief that where human judgement and decision making are concerned, we are all experts. This book goes some way toward shaking that belief. Reference 1. R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, De&ions with Multiple Objectives (New York, John
Wiley, 1976).
More homework suggested Ernest Braun The Future with Microelectronics Iann Barron and Ray Curnow 243 pages, L7.95 (London, Frances Pinter, 1978) This is obviously an important book on a topical and worrying subject. It is also a most curious book, perhaps because it was originally written as a research report and then hurriedly rushed out for publication. Unfortunately, it totally lacks all references to other work or sources of information and says very little about the methods used in making forecasts. The result is a book which reads as if it were produced by a computer-full of spuriously authoritative statements on matters which are highly speculative and often debatable. The impression of computerisation is enhanced by an uneasy style, marred by not a few signs of hurry. I recommend that the reader should skip the Ernest Braun is head of the Technology Policy Unit at the University of Aston, Gosta Green, Birmingham B4 7ET, UK. With Stuart MacDonald, he wrote Revolution in Miniature (London, Cambridge University Press, 1978).
FUTURES
29
October lB79
introductory summary-things get a lot better. The bulk of the book is concerned with detailed forecasts of technological developments that might be expected in information technology in the short, medium, and long term. By information technology is meant everything to do with the gathering, storage, processing, transmission, and accessing of information The authors regard information as a commodity, similar to energy, and feel that it should and will be treated as such. Although I disagree with some of their more philosophical conclusions, eg the analogy between information and energy rather than entropy, their views on technological developments command attention. They believe that most information will be stored and displayed by microelectronic devices of some kind and that manv of our paper-based activities will eventually disappear. In consequence, they pinpoint technologies that need attention, eg easily readable display devices.