Consumer time-sharing services

viewpoint tends to confirm the present trend whereby the user company's computer manager is eventually given responsibility for all of the office of the future information systems and devices. However, most of the other viewpoints leave the computer manager in an ambiguous position, and raise some questions about the likely spread of the management information systems (MIS) concept of central information control by the computer chief. (Electronic

Mail and Message Systems, International Resource Development Inc., 30 High Street, Norwalk, CT 06851, USA. Tek (203) 866-6914, Tx: 643452) []

Consumer timesharing services

users over the next year or so. The Source has reached an agreement with Tymshare's computers in off hours; CompuServe has several more of its own computers that could be made available as its consumer business expands. Several other large time-sharing organizations, including General Electric Information Services and Boeing Computer Services, could be possible entrants into the con-

Table 1.

puter users, 10%, or only 100 000 users, will be acessing timesharing services from the home in 1981. The report includes an analysis of the demographics of current and potential users of home time-sharing services, with detailed projections of the expected levels of use of informational, transactional and educational services offered by time-sharing vendors. As CompuServe was recently acquired

Projected home time-sharing market through 1990 Households (X10 °) 1984 1987 1990

Average monthly expenditures, $

1981

10.00 25.00 50.00 75.00 100.00

0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01

0.25 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.03

1.00 0.60 0.30 0.1 5 0.10

3.5 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.2

Number of households (X 106)

0.1

0.58

2.15

5.9

Annual expenditures($X106)

30-35

175-200

700-750

1 5001 750

IRD, USA ( 1 9 8 0 ) It is predicted that there will be as many as 100 000 US subscribers to home time-sharing services by the end of 1981. There are currently two consumer time-sharing services in operation in the USA, with a combined total of about 8 000 users, but several other major companies are expected to enter the market during the next three years. Total revenues generated from these services could exceed $1 O00M/year before the end of the 1980s, and most of these revenues will be derived from the use of computer and communications facilities that otherwise would have been idle during evenings and weekends.

Current contenders Demand for services has recently become so strong that computer facilities have been overloaded (see Table 1). However, both The Source and CompuServe are acquiring more computers, and will be able to deal with the expected tenfold expansion in the number of 22

Table 2.

Reasons for using home time-sharing services E '~'--

0

~

"-

" °- -

~"

o

~

"~

~-

~

._

t-

oo-

~

Reasons Timeliness X Cost effectiveness Availability × Format X

X X X

× X

X

X X

sumer time-sharing services market. Several years are expected to elapse before the US market for consumer time-sharing services is broadened beyond its current user base of computer hobbyists and affluent gadget lovers. However, because the services are nationwide, these categories alone will provide good revenue growth to suppliers through 1985 (Table 2). Of the expected 1M home corn-

×

×

X

X

×

X

X X

X X

×

Social interaction

Group influences Self improvement Entertainment

X

X

X X X

X X X

×

by H&R Block, the tax-preparing services company, an interactive automated tax-preparation service may be offered that could be programmed to minimize the user's taxes, while at the same time alerting the user to the percentage probability of an IRS audit. (Inter-

national Resource Development Inc., 30 High Street, Norwalk, CT 06851, USA. Tel: (203) 866-69/4, Tx: 643452) [] computer communications