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Cuba after the cold war
BULLETIN
OF LATIN AMERICAN
RESEARCH
reducing the gap between welfare need and welfare provision. The social movements of the 1980s resulted in a proliferation of self-help organisations and NGOs (see the chapter on Brazil by Anthony Hall), for example working in self-help housing (see the interesting chapter by Alan Gilbert) and local health programmes. Abel and Lewis suggest that in some sense these can be interpreted as ‘triumphs of popular action’. They speculate as to whether, through the informal sector, Latin America has found an indigenous route to eradicate mass poverty and meet basic human needs. It is not yet clear, however, whether this growth of the informal sector represents ‘a genuine democratic enfranchisement of the marginals’, regarding state provision. The scenario of previously excluded groups obtaining a permanent stake in the political and social order through welfare provision may be resisted by entrenched conservative interests. The need for welfare provision is increasing at the same time as governments are adopting a minimalist stance towards its provision in line with the rolling back of the state. This collection is very timely. It will be of great interest and use to a wide multidisciplinary audience. Caroline Thomas Universityof Southampton
Mesa-Lago, Camelo (ed.) (1993), Cuba After the Cold War, University of Pittsburgh Press (Pittsburgh). ix + 383 pp. $49.95 hbk, $19.95 pbk. Cardoso, Eliana and Helwege, AM (1992), Cuba after Communism, The MIT Press (Cambridge, Massachussets). xiii + 148 pp. El 5.95 hbk. Cuba-watching has turned into the art of prediction. Since the collapse of Soviet communism, the questions being asked about Cuba are no longer even whether the Castro regime can survive but when and how it will fall. Such is the atmosphere of impending doom surrounding academic discussion of Cuba that it takes a bold publisher to bring out any book on options for change in Cuba (how many theses and books on the future of the Soviet Union were being written or printed in December 1991?). Two such .books are Carmelo Mesa-Lago’s edited collection of essays, and Eliana Cardoso’s and Amr Helwege’s short volume, both examining scenarios and proposing pathways for political and economic change in Cuba. The first, the progeny of a well-established school of Cuba-watchers-the Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Pittsburgh-is the result of an ambitious 2-year multi-disciplinary research project involving mainly US economists and political scientists which culminated in two international conferences in 1992. The volume is an uneven collection of essays whose basic rationale is that the experience of transition from communism to capitalism in Eastern Europe can serve as a template for Cuba, despite acknowledged differences. The chapters that attempt to draw or imply these analogies, however, are the weakest in the volume. The premise that institutional superstructures-the party, state, command economy-are the key factors in defining a regime or delineating historical change is not entirely convincing. Indeed, I suspect that historians in the future are more likely to view the Cuban regime as part of a Latin American tradition of authoritarian, charismatic populism and antiimperialism, rather than as a variant of Eastern European socialism. Much more useful are the contributions of two of the best-known US experts on Cuba, Jorge Dominguez and Cannel0 Mesa-Lago. The latter’s contributions form the backbone of the volume and provide a densely packed and well-documented analysis of the state of the Cuban economy and its prospects. Needless to say, none of the
BOOK REVIEWS
221
contributors hold out any hope for the continuation of the regime. But their scenarios and strategies for change are drawn up in somewhat of a vacuum because they concentrate on economic and institutional structures and largely ignore cultural and social factors. Another notable absence in their analysis is the effect of the relentless embargo of Cuba by the United States. This is by no means the sole cause of the Castro regime’s problems, as its propagandists would have us believe, but to describe the US crusade against Cuba merely ‘as a scapegoat to hide their [the Cuban leaders1 own mistakes and force popular loyalty to the Revolution and to Castro’ (p. 356) is disingenuous. At least Cardoso and Helwege’s book acknowledges that the US policy towards the Castro regime has been, in their words, ‘an abomination’ (p. 111). Their slim volume is a passionate appeal from the heart of liberal America for a peaceful transition to capitalism in Cuba which would preserve the core of the regime’s social infrastructure. It is an appeal also to pragmatism on both sides, arguing that unless immediate and drastic measures are taken to set Cuba on the capitalist road, the social benefits brought by the Revolution will be lost and the United States, for its part, will have another Haiti in its backyard. While their account of the history of the regime is full of simplifications (for example, that it ‘drove out its own entrepreneurs, intellectuals, and best-trained professionals’, p. x), it is difficult to escape their conclusion that there is little future in the regime’s present strategies for coping with the economic crisis, or indeed, that the regime has much future at all. But their idea that by going down the social-democratic road Cuba can combine the best of both worlds, social justice and economic regeneration, is nothing short of utopian. Predicting the future of Cuba is a dangerous exercise. According to its numerous detractors, the regime has been on the point of collapse for several years. Castro and his revolution have always been unpredictable. Perhaps there is only one thing we can be sure of and that is that the manner of Castro’s eventual demise, however and whenever it occurs, will take us all by surprise. Sebastian Balfour Goldsmiths’ College, University of London
Graham, Carol (1992), Peru’s APIA: Parties, Politics and the Elusive Quest for Democracy, Lyme Rienner Publishers (Boulder & London). ix + 267 pp. f 28.95 hbk. This interesting and informed book examines the Alan Garcia administration that (mis)govemed Peru between 1985 and 1990, attempting to relate the Peruvian experience at this time to the literature on ‘democratic consolidation’ emanating from United States political science. To this end, the author provides a historical summary of the origins and ideological evolution of APRA from 1924 to the coup headed by General Velasco in October 1968, laying the usual emphasis on how a radical early phase mellowed into conservative middle age during the latter half of the 1950s. This transformation helped overcome the longstanding military veto (a legacy of the 1932 Trujillo uprising and other attempts at rebellion), so allowing APRA to play a pivotal role in the transition to elected government that occurred between 1978 and 1980. While much of this material has been published elsewhere, Graham’s account has the advantage of providing a full and fair appraisal of a theme overlooked in most of the existing literature: the ideological and generational crisis created within APRA’s ranks by Velasco’s reformist policies, as well as the increasingly bitter political
OF LATIN AMERICAN
RESEARCH
reducing the gap between welfare need and welfare provision. The social movements of the 1980s resulted in a proliferation of self-help organisations and NGOs (see the chapter on Brazil by Anthony Hall), for example working in self-help housing (see the interesting chapter by Alan Gilbert) and local health programmes. Abel and Lewis suggest that in some sense these can be interpreted as ‘triumphs of popular action’. They speculate as to whether, through the informal sector, Latin America has found an indigenous route to eradicate mass poverty and meet basic human needs. It is not yet clear, however, whether this growth of the informal sector represents ‘a genuine democratic enfranchisement of the marginals’, regarding state provision. The scenario of previously excluded groups obtaining a permanent stake in the political and social order through welfare provision may be resisted by entrenched conservative interests. The need for welfare provision is increasing at the same time as governments are adopting a minimalist stance towards its provision in line with the rolling back of the state. This collection is very timely. It will be of great interest and use to a wide multidisciplinary audience. Caroline Thomas Universityof Southampton
Mesa-Lago, Camelo (ed.) (1993), Cuba After the Cold War, University of Pittsburgh Press (Pittsburgh). ix + 383 pp. $49.95 hbk, $19.95 pbk. Cardoso, Eliana and Helwege, AM (1992), Cuba after Communism, The MIT Press (Cambridge, Massachussets). xiii + 148 pp. El 5.95 hbk. Cuba-watching has turned into the art of prediction. Since the collapse of Soviet communism, the questions being asked about Cuba are no longer even whether the Castro regime can survive but when and how it will fall. Such is the atmosphere of impending doom surrounding academic discussion of Cuba that it takes a bold publisher to bring out any book on options for change in Cuba (how many theses and books on the future of the Soviet Union were being written or printed in December 1991?). Two such .books are Carmelo Mesa-Lago’s edited collection of essays, and Eliana Cardoso’s and Amr Helwege’s short volume, both examining scenarios and proposing pathways for political and economic change in Cuba. The first, the progeny of a well-established school of Cuba-watchers-the Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Pittsburgh-is the result of an ambitious 2-year multi-disciplinary research project involving mainly US economists and political scientists which culminated in two international conferences in 1992. The volume is an uneven collection of essays whose basic rationale is that the experience of transition from communism to capitalism in Eastern Europe can serve as a template for Cuba, despite acknowledged differences. The chapters that attempt to draw or imply these analogies, however, are the weakest in the volume. The premise that institutional superstructures-the party, state, command economy-are the key factors in defining a regime or delineating historical change is not entirely convincing. Indeed, I suspect that historians in the future are more likely to view the Cuban regime as part of a Latin American tradition of authoritarian, charismatic populism and antiimperialism, rather than as a variant of Eastern European socialism. Much more useful are the contributions of two of the best-known US experts on Cuba, Jorge Dominguez and Cannel0 Mesa-Lago. The latter’s contributions form the backbone of the volume and provide a densely packed and well-documented analysis of the state of the Cuban economy and its prospects. Needless to say, none of the
BOOK REVIEWS
221
contributors hold out any hope for the continuation of the regime. But their scenarios and strategies for change are drawn up in somewhat of a vacuum because they concentrate on economic and institutional structures and largely ignore cultural and social factors. Another notable absence in their analysis is the effect of the relentless embargo of Cuba by the United States. This is by no means the sole cause of the Castro regime’s problems, as its propagandists would have us believe, but to describe the US crusade against Cuba merely ‘as a scapegoat to hide their [the Cuban leaders1 own mistakes and force popular loyalty to the Revolution and to Castro’ (p. 356) is disingenuous. At least Cardoso and Helwege’s book acknowledges that the US policy towards the Castro regime has been, in their words, ‘an abomination’ (p. 111). Their slim volume is a passionate appeal from the heart of liberal America for a peaceful transition to capitalism in Cuba which would preserve the core of the regime’s social infrastructure. It is an appeal also to pragmatism on both sides, arguing that unless immediate and drastic measures are taken to set Cuba on the capitalist road, the social benefits brought by the Revolution will be lost and the United States, for its part, will have another Haiti in its backyard. While their account of the history of the regime is full of simplifications (for example, that it ‘drove out its own entrepreneurs, intellectuals, and best-trained professionals’, p. x), it is difficult to escape their conclusion that there is little future in the regime’s present strategies for coping with the economic crisis, or indeed, that the regime has much future at all. But their idea that by going down the social-democratic road Cuba can combine the best of both worlds, social justice and economic regeneration, is nothing short of utopian. Predicting the future of Cuba is a dangerous exercise. According to its numerous detractors, the regime has been on the point of collapse for several years. Castro and his revolution have always been unpredictable. Perhaps there is only one thing we can be sure of and that is that the manner of Castro’s eventual demise, however and whenever it occurs, will take us all by surprise. Sebastian Balfour Goldsmiths’ College, University of London
Graham, Carol (1992), Peru’s APIA: Parties, Politics and the Elusive Quest for Democracy, Lyme Rienner Publishers (Boulder & London). ix + 267 pp. f 28.95 hbk. This interesting and informed book examines the Alan Garcia administration that (mis)govemed Peru between 1985 and 1990, attempting to relate the Peruvian experience at this time to the literature on ‘democratic consolidation’ emanating from United States political science. To this end, the author provides a historical summary of the origins and ideological evolution of APRA from 1924 to the coup headed by General Velasco in October 1968, laying the usual emphasis on how a radical early phase mellowed into conservative middle age during the latter half of the 1950s. This transformation helped overcome the longstanding military veto (a legacy of the 1932 Trujillo uprising and other attempts at rebellion), so allowing APRA to play a pivotal role in the transition to elected government that occurred between 1978 and 1980. While much of this material has been published elsewhere, Graham’s account has the advantage of providing a full and fair appraisal of a theme overlooked in most of the existing literature: the ideological and generational crisis created within APRA’s ranks by Velasco’s reformist policies, as well as the increasingly bitter political