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Decoupling analysis of economic growth from water use in City: A case study of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou of China
Sustainable Cities and Society 41 (2018) 86–94
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Decoupling analysis of economic growth from water use in City: A case study of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou of China
T
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Qiang Wanga, , Rui Jianga, Rongrong Lia,b a b
School of Economic and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China School of Management & Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Haidian District, Beijing, 100081, China
A R T I C LE I N FO
A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Decoupling model Comparative analysis Water sustainability Urban sustainability
Water scarcity is one of the biggest challenges in urban development in many countries, especially China. Better understanding the decoupling between economic growth and water usage in cities can facilitate and promote economic growth without increasing water usage. This study developed a water resource decoupling model and a water environment decoupling model to quantify the relationship between urban economic growth and water usage. China’s top three megacities (Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou) were studied to provide a case study analysis. The results show the best decoupling status between the urban economic output and water usage is Guangzhou, followed by Shanghai and Beijing. The waste resource decoupling status in industry sector was better than that in agriculture sector. The best decoupling status between the urban economic output and total waste water discharge was also Guangzhou, followed by Shanghai and Beijing.
1. Introduction
2. Literature review
Water is a strategic natural resource and plays an important role in maintaining ecological balance and promoting economic development (Rosegrant et al., 2009). Significant population growth and a driving momentum towards socio-economic development have caused global water use to be largely unsustainable (Nazemi and Madani 2018), especially in urban regions (Kontokosta and Jain 2015). As the world's second-largest economy, China is the most populous country in the world, accounting for 21% of the world's population. However, its water resources make up only 6% of the world's water resources (Gu et al., 2017). China is one of the 13 water-scarce countries in the world and has been facing a growing water scarcity crisis for a long time (Zhao et al., 2017). Water resource shortages and the deterioration of the water environment are the two main problems restricting water resource use in China. These problems are restricting China’s sustainable development. The optimal relationship between the economy and water resources environment is when the economy grows without a growth in water usage and without deteriorating the water environment. This means there is a decoupling between economic growth and the water resources environment. Therefore, research on the coordinated development of urban economic growth and the water resource environment is important to address the contradiction between China’s sustained economic development and the water resources crisis.
Water is one of the most prominent elements on earth and is very important to human life and development (Nazemi and Madani 2018, Wang and Chen 2015). Water is particularly important in urban regions because these regions are the most densely populated areas and the most economically active areas in the world (Nazemi and Madani 2017, Richter et al. 2018, Rojas et al., 2015). Therefore, may scholars have engaged in urban water research (Fraga et al., 2016, House-Peters and Chang 2011, Kingsborough et al., 2016, Noiva et al., 2016, Wilcox et al. 2016, Wang and Li 2016, Wang and Li et al., 2017a). Li et al. (2017) studied the estimated residential total water use and consumptive water use in the state of Nebraska in the United States in 2010; this provided a feasible and effective method for water managers to estimate residential water consumption (Li et al. 2017). Alireza et al. (2017) built a dynamic modeling method to simulate urban water supply dynamics, applying an agent-based modeling framework (Ali, Shafiee and Berglund 2017). S. Alireza et al. (2016) developed a new multiple regression model to predict urban water consumption. This provided a useful tool for policymakers to manage water usage by adjusting water prices and policies (Eslamian, Li and Haghighat 2016). Therefore, this study investigated mainland China’s top 3 developed cities with the greatest economic strength: Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Economic development can’t be separated from water utilization. Rapid economic growth is accompanied by water resource shortages
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Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (Q. Wang).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.05.010 Received 1 February 2018; Received in revised form 5 May 2018; Accepted 7 May 2018 Available online 19 May 2018 2210-6707/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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model has been found to be the best approach to characterize the relationship between economic growth and water use (Gilmont 2015, Wang et al. 2015, Zhang et al. 2016). Therefore, the Tapio decoupling model was used to explore the coordinated development of the water resource environment and urban economic growth in China. For this study, water research was subdivided into water resources and water environment research. Water consumption changes were used to represent changes in water resources; wastewater discharge changes were used to represent the change in the water environment change. Therefore, the water resource decoupling model and the water environment decoupling model were constructed to analyze the relationship between the water resource environment and urban economic growth in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Furthermore, based on the industrial structure and water consumption structure, the decoupling relationship between economic growth and the two major water use sectors: agriculture and industry were studied separately.
and water environment deterioration. Many scholars have explored the relationship between water and the economy, using many approaches. Ke et al. (2016) built a comprehensive multi-objective optimization model and conducted an input-output analysis to study the trade-off between economic growth, water use, and environmental protection in Ordos. The study then proposed effective industrial restructuring programs and water supply plans (Ke et al. 2016). Bao and Chen (2015) proposed a complete decomposition model to investigate driving factors, particularly urbanization, on water consumption and the economy at the provincial-level in China. The results show that urbanization can lead to a water crisis in urban areas or in urban agglomerations (Bao and Chen 2015). Zhao et al. (2017) investigated the relationship between water consumption and economic output in China using province-level panel data. The results show that China’s water use is expected to rise in the next few years and reach the inflection point by 2021 (Zhao et al. 2017). Jaramillo and Nazemi (2017) applied downscaled climate simulations to assess the impact of climate change on water security in Montreal, Canada (Jaramillo and Nazemi 2017). Chao Bao (2015) used a cointegration test and the vector error correction model Granger causality test to analyze the causal relationship between total water consumption, economic output, and urbanization level (Bao and He 2015). Decoupling theory was first proposed by Weizsäcker in 1990 (Weizsäcker 1990). Zhang et al. (2014) studied the decoupling relationship between water consumption and the impact on the water environment from crop production in Heilongjiang using the water footprint method. The results show that the decoupling state between water consumption and crop production was mainly concentrated in strong decoupling; the decoupling state between the water environment and crop production was mainly concentrated in the weak decoupling (Zhang and Yang 2014). Zhu et al. (2013) used a decoupling model to analyze the relationship between water use and the economic output of Yunnan and Guizhou in China. The results show that the decoupling state of both provinces are all highly undesirable; this outcome is due to slow economic growth, and a low efficiency and unreasonable structure of water consumption (Zhu et al. 2013). Dan (2014) constructed a decoupling tense analysis model to analyze economic development and water resources utilization in China from 1953 to 2010 (Dan 2014). This literature review shows that when analyzing the relationship between economic growth and water resources, decoupling theory is widely used. The concept of decoupling reflects the non-synchronous changes between economic growth and environmental damage (Weizsäcker 1990). The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) proposed its own decoupling model, dividing “decoupling” into two types: absolute decoupling and relative decoupling (OECD 2002). Based on the OECD decoupling model, Vehmas expanded the decoupling state from two types to six types, including: strong and weak decoupling; and strong, weak, expansive, and recessive coupling (Vehmas, Kaivo-Oja, & Luukkanen, 2018). In 2005, Tapio introduced decoupling elasticity into the decoupling model, resulting in eight decoupling state categories (weak, strong, weak negative, strong negative, expansive negative and recessive decoupling; expansive and recessive coupling) (Tapio 2005). In the field of resources and the environment, the Tapio decoupling model has been mostly used to explore the decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions (Jiang and Li et al., 2017; Zhang and Da, 2015; Wang et al., 2016; Andreoni and Galmarini, 2012; Li and Jiang, 2017; Lu et al. 2015; Su, Jiang, & Li, 2017; Wang, Jiang, & Li, 2017) many scholars have also used it to study the decoupling relationship between economic growth and the energy consumption (Dong et al. 2016, Kan and Lianju 2017, Chen et al. 2017, Zhang and Da 2015, Niu et al. 2015, Ouyang et al., 2013, Liu et al., 2011, Wang and Li et al., 2017b). In addition, the Tapio decoupling
3. Methodologies and data sources 3.1. Methodologies 3.1.1. The water resource decoupling model Urban economic growth was measured using the percent change in gross domestic product (GDP). The percent change of water consumption represents the water resources (WR). The water resource decoupling model is expressed as follows:
eijr =
ΔWRij / WRij ΔGDPij / GDPij
(1)
In this expression, i = 1,2, 3 denotes Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, respectively; j = 1,2, 3 denotes the whole city, Agriculture sector, and Industry sector, respectively; eijr denotes the decoupling elasticity value of the water consumption and economic growth; WRij denotes the water consumption; GDPij denotes the economic output value; 3.1.2. The water environment decoupling model Urban economic growth is measured using the percent change of GDP. The percent change in wastewater discharge represents the water environment (WE). The water environment decoupling model is expressed as follows:
eie =
ΔWEi/ WEi (2) ΔGDPi/ GDPi
eie denotes the decoupling elasticity value of the waste water and economic growth; WEi denotes the total discharge of waste water; GDPi denotes the economic output value; Using the Tapio decoupling model, eight logical possibilities can be defined according to the decoupling elasticity value. The eight options include strong decoupling, weak decoupling, expansive coupling, expansive negative decoupling, strong negative decoupling, weak negative decoupling, recessive coupling, and recessive decoupling. Table 1 provides the standards for dividing the eight logical possibilities. Table 2 shows the meaning of the decoupling status with respect to water resources and the water environment decoupling model. 3.2. Data source Based on data availability, this study period for this research began in 2005 and ended in 2015. The gross domestic product and gross domestic product indices (previous year = 100) of Beijing and Shanghai were collected from the China Statistical Yearbook (NBS 2017). The water consumption for Beijing and Shanghai were collected from the 87
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wastewater compared to Beijing and Shanghai. Trends associated with Shanghai’s waste water discharge were similar to Guangzhou’s waste water discharge. Beijing had the lowest wastewater discharge, while the total waste water discharge of Beijing increased year by year.
Table 1 Standards for making decoupling judgments. Degree of decoupling
ΔWRij orΔWEi
ΔGDPij orΔGDPi
eijr oreijr
Strong decoupling Weak decoupling Expansive coupling Expansive negative decoupling Strong negative decoupling Weak negative decoupling Recessive coupling Recessive decoupling
<0 ≫0 >0 >0 >0 <0 <0 <0
>0 ≫0 >0 >0 <0 <0 <0 <0
<0 0.8 > ≫ 0 1.2 > > 0.8 > 1.2 <0 0.8 > > 0 1.2 > > 0.8 > 1.2
4.2. Water resource decoupling analysis 4.2.1. Water resource decoupling analysis in Beijing Fig. 4 shows that total water consumption increased year by year, but water consumption in agriculture and industry experienced a downward trend during 2005-2015. This is because, as the capital of China, Beijing’s primary and secondary industries are gradually being replaced by tertiary industries. Table 3 shows the decoupling results between water consumption and the economic output value of the whole city, agriculture, and industry in Beijing. Table 3 shows that the decoupling state of the whole city of Beijing was very satisfactory, characterized by strong decoupling and weak decoupling. Specifically, the decoupling state was strong decoupling during 2005–2006 and 2009–2010, indicating that water consumption decreased as economic output increased. Weak decoupling occurred in the remaining years. This means that while the water consumption and economic output in Beijing all increased, the growth rate of water consumption is slower than the growth in economic output. The decoupling state of industry in Beijing is more satisfactory than that of agriculture in Beijing, characterized by strong decoupling and weak decoupling. Recessive decoupling occurred in Beijing’s industry during 2009–2010 and 2014–2015, indicating that a decreased pace in water consumption was significantly larger than the economic output of Beijing’s industry.
China Statistical Yearbook (NBS 2017). The total waste water discharged in Beijing and Shanghai were collected from the Beijing Statistical Yearbook (BMBS 2017) and Shanghai Statistical Yearbook (SMBS 2017), respectively. The GDP, GDP indices (previous year = 100), and total waste water discharged in Guangzhou came from Guangzhou Statistical Yearbook (GMBS 2017). The water consumption in Guangzhou were collected from the Guangzhou Water Resources Bulletin (WABGM 2017). To eliminate the impact of inflation, the annual GDP data were converted into 2005 constant prices. 4. Results analysis and discussion 4.1. Overall analysis of water resources and the water environment Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are the three cities with the strongest economic strength in mainland China. Fig. 1 shows that the economic output value significantly increased during the study period in these cities. More specifically, Shanghai is the most developed city. The economic output value in Shanghai increased from 789.21 billion yuan in 2005 to 1895.30 billion yuan in 2015, reflecting an average annual rate of increase of 9.16%. The economic output value in Guangzhou increased the fastest, with the highest average annual rate of increase, at 11.78%. This was a significant increase from 515.42 billion yuan in 2005 to 1569.44 billion yuan in 2015. The economic output value in Beijing increased from 463.82 billion yuan in 2005 to 1129.56 billion yuan in 2015, reflecting an average annual rate of increase of 9.31%. This rapid economic growth is inseparable from water resource utilization. Fig. 2 shows that with its highest economic output value, Shanghai’s water consumption was much higher than the other two cities. Shanghai's water consumption throughout the study period showed a downward trend, decreasing from 121.28 × 102 million m3 to 103.80 × 102 million m3 . Guangzhou’s water consumption decreased year by year from 83.61 × 102 million m3 to 66.14 × 102 million m3 . The water consumption in Beijing increased year by year, except 2005–2006, from 34.50 × 102 million m3 to 38.20 × 102 million m3 . This reflects an average annual rate of increase of 1.02%. Wastewater is generated by water use; waste water discharge was used to represent the water environment. Fig. 3 shows that the total waste water discharge from all three cities displayed an upward trend throughout the study period. Guangzhou had the highest discharge of
4.2.2. Water resource decoupling analysis in Shanghai Fig. 4 shows that total water consumption trends were similar to the water consumption by industry. This indicates that the change of industrial water consumption had a higher influence on total water consumption. This further affected the degree of decoupling between economic growth and total water consumption. The decoupling state between economic growth and the total water consumption appear to be largely determined by the decoupling state between industrial economic output and industrial water consumption. Water consumption by agriculture remained in a steady state during 2005–2015, decreasing from 18.46 × 102 million m3 in 2005 to 14.30 × 102 million m3 in 2015. Table 4 shows the decoupling results for water consumption and economic output value with respect to the whole city, and for agriculture and industry in Shanghai. The decoupling state in Shanghai was very satisfactory; the growth rate of water consumption was lower than the growth rate of economic output value throughout the study. Furthermore, the water consumption growth rate was negative, while the growth rate of economic output value was positive during 2005–2006, 2007–2008 and 2013-2015. The decoupling status was strong decoupling during those years. The decoupling status was expansive coupling during 2012-2013. This means that the water consumption and economic output value were all increasing, and the growth rate of economic output value was higher than the growth rate of water
Table 2 The decoupling status meaning of the water resource and environment decoupling model. Decoupling status
meaning
Strong decoupling Weak decoupling Expansive coupling Expansive negative decoupling Strong negative decoupling Weak negative decoupling Recessive coupling Recessive decoupling
Economy increase while water consumption (wastewater discharge) decrease The increase pace of water consumption (wastewater discharge) is obviously smaller than economy The increase pace of water consumption (wastewater discharge) is approximately equal to economy The increase pace of water consumption (wastewater discharge) is obviously bigger than economy Economy decrease while water consumption (wastewater discharge) increase The decrease pace of water consumption (wastewater discharge) is obviously smaller than economy The decrease pace of water consumption (wastewater discharge) is approximately equal to economy The decrease pace of water consumption (wastewater discharge) is obviously bigger than economy
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Fig. 1. GDP trends in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong (unit: billion yuan).
Fig. 2. Water consumption trends in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong (100 million m3).
Fig. 3. Waste water discharge trends in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong (100 million tons). Table 3 The decoupling result of the whole city, agriculture and industry in Beijing. Year
The whole city
Agriculture
Industry
2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
strong decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling
strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling recessive decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling – recessive decoupling
strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling
consumption. Weak decoupling occurred in the remaining years, indicating that the decreased pace in water consumption was significantly larger than economic output. In Shanghai, the decoupling state of industry was more satisfactory
Fig. 4. The tendency of water used in Beijing.
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Table 4 The decoupling result of the whole city, agriculture, and industry in Shanghai. Year
The whole city
Agriculture
Industry
2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
strong decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling expansive coupling strong decoupling strong decoupling
strong decoupling strong decoupling expansive negative decoupling strong negative decoupling weak negative decoupling strong negative decoupling expansive negative decoupling recessive decoupling strong decoupling weak negative decoupling
strong decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling expansive negative decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling expansive negative decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling
Fig. 5. Water use trends in Shanghai.
decoupling during 2012-2013. This means that water consumption by agriculture and economic output value of agriculture both decreased. The decreased pace of water consumption is significantly larger than the economic output of Shanghai’s agriculture. The decoupling state in the remaining years was unsatisfactory, characterized by strong negative decoupling, expansive negative decoupling, and weak negative decoupling during 2007–2012 and 2014-2015. For Shanghai’s industry, the decoupling state was satisfactory except during 2008–2009 and 2012-2013. The satisfactory decoupling states were strong decoupling and weak decoupling; the unsatisfactory decoupling state was expansive negative decoupling. 4.2.3. Water resource decoupling analysis in Guangzhou Fig. 5 shows that total water consumption and the water consumed by agriculture and industry all declined during the study period. Similar to water consumption in Shanghai, Guangzhou’s total water consumption trends were similar to industrial water consumption in Guangzhou. This indicated that the changes in industrial water consumption significantly influenced total water consumption in Guangzhou. As such, to realize the decoupling state in Guangzhou, the first step is to realize the decoupling state in Guangzhou’s industrial sector (Fig. 6). Table 5 shows the decoupling results between water consumption and economic output value for the whole city, and for the agriculture and industry sectors in Guangzhou. The decoupling state in Guangzhou was very satisfactory, characterized by strong decoupling. This means that the economic output value of Guangzhou increased, while water consumption decreased throughout the study period. For Guangzhou’s agriculture, the decoupling state fluctuated throughout the study period, with alternating instances of the satisfactory decoupling state (strong decoupling, weak decoupling) and unsatisfactory decoupling state (expansive negative decoupling, expansive coupling and recessive decoupling). These results suggest there is still a long way to go to realize the complete decoupling of agricultural water consumption in Guangzhou. The decoupling state of Guangzhou’s industry was more satisfactory
Fig. 6. Water use trends in Guangzhou.
Table 5 The decoupling results for the whole city, agriculture, and industry in Guangzhou. Year
The whole city
Agriculture
Industry
2005-2006 2006-2007
strong decoupling strong decoupling
strong decoupling strong decoupling
2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling
recessive decoupling expansive negative decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling expansive coupling weak decoupling strong decoupling
strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling
than agriculture. For Shanghai’s agriculture, the most satisfactory decoupling state was strong decoupling during 2005–2007 and 2013–2014; the second most satisfactory decoupling state was recessive 90
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Fig. 7. The decoupling results for the water environment in Beijing.
Fig. 8. The decoupling results for the water environment in Shanghai.
with the economic growth. Expansive negative decoupling occurred during 2008–2009, which was detrimental to the sustainable development of the Beijing’s water environment. This is because the increased pace of total waste water discharge was significantly larger than the economic output in this decoupling state. Expansive coupling occurred during 2010-2011. This reflects that fact that the increased pace of total waste water discharge is approximately equal to Beijing’s economic output. Similar to the decoupling state of Beijing, Fig. 8 shows that the decoupling relationship between economic output and total waste water discharge in Shanghai was characterized by four kinds of decoupling states: strong, weak and expansive negative decoupling, and expansive coupling. Strong decoupling occurred in 2007–2008, 2010–2011, and 2013–2014; this state was most conducive to the sustainable development of Shanghai’s water environment. Weak decoupling occurred during 2006–2007, 2008–2010, 2012–2013, and 2014-2015. This reflects the second satisfactory decoupling state between economic output and total waste water discharge. Expansive coupling was observed during 2005–2006. This reflects that the increased pace of total waste water discharge is approximately equal to
than the decoupling state associated with agriculture. The decoupling state of Guangzhou’s industry was mainly strong decoupling, which means the economic output value of Guangzhou’s industry increased, while water consumption decreased, during 2005–2012 and 20132015. Weak decoupling occurred during 2012-2013. This means that the economic output value and water consumption of Guangzhou’s industry all increased, while the growth rate of economic output was higher than the water consumption in Guangzhou’s industrial sector. 4.3. Water environment decoupling analysis Figs. 7–9 show the decoupling results for the water environment in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Fig. 7 shows that the decoupling state between the economic output and the total waste water discharge in Beijing was mainly characterized by weak decoupling. This reflects the fact that total waste water discharge has increased with economic growth; however, the growth rate of economic output is higher than the rate of total waste water discharge in Beijing. The most satisfactory decoupling state was strong decoupling during 2009–2010 and 2011–2012. This reflects that the total waste water discharge decreased 91
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Fig. 9. The decoupling results for the water environment in Guangzhou.
sustainable urban economic development and the water crisis in Beijing. First of all, Beijing, as the capital of China, has a worrying environment. Therefore, the government should vigorously develop the tertiary industry and reduce the proportion of the primary industry and the secondary industry. Secondly, in order to achieve the decoupling of water use and economic growth in Beijing, the first step is to decouple water used in agriculture. Finally, vigorously developing sewage treatment process, which can reduce the amount of wastewater discharge and produce economic benefits. In general, a comparative analysis of the decoupling results in three cities shows that rapid economic growth will indeed aggravate water shortages and deterioration of the water environment. This phenomenon is particularly prominent in Shanghai.
Shanghai’s economic output. The unsatisfactory decoupling state, which was detrimental to the sustainable development of Shanghai’s water environment, was expansive negative decoupling in 2011–2012. Fig. 9 shows that the decoupling state of Guangzhou between the economic output and the total waste water discharge was better than Beijing and Shanghai, which exhibited strong decoupling, weak decoupling, and expansive coupling throughout the study period. The most satisfactory decoupling state, which was most conducive to the sustainable development of Guangzhou’s water environment, was strong decoupling during 2006–2007 and 2008–2009. The second best decoupling state was weak decoupling during 2005–2006, 2009–2010, and 2011–2015; this decoupling state reflected that the increased pace of total waste water discharge was smaller than the economic output in Guangzhou. The third satisfactory decoupling state was expansive coupling during 2007–2008 and 2010–2011; this reflected that the increased pace of total waste water discharge and the economic output in Guangzhou were at roughly the same level.
4.4.2. Comparison of our findings with previous studies Zhao et al. explored the relationship between water use and economic growth in China from the provincial level. The results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between water use and economic growth, but water consumption has not reached the inflection point, so it can be concluded that water consumption will increase with economic growth (Zhao et al. 2017). In this paper, according to the analysis of the results, the economic output value and the water consumption of the three cities all ranked in the order: Shanghai > Guangzhou > Beijing. This confirms that "the rapid economic growth cannot be separated from the utilization of water resources" emphasized in the literature review.
4.4. Discussion 4.4.1. Comparison of decoupling of water from economic output in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou Decoupling results show the current status of the relationship between water resources, the water environment and economic growth. The decoupling state between economic output and water consumption by city follows the order: Guangzhou > Shanghai > Beijing; the decoupling state between the economic output and the total waste water discharge by city follows the order: Guangzhou > Shanghai > Beijing. It can conclude that compared with the other two cities, Beijing has the worst decoupling situation, therefore Beijing's water and wastewater discharge should be given priority. Based on the decoupling results of water resources and water environment, Beijing's primary and secondary industries are gradually being replaced by the tertiary industry. As for the water resources decoupling results analysis, Beijing's industrial decoupling status is more ideal than its agricultural decoupling status, and water environment decoupling analysis. As for the water environment decoupling results analysis, the decoupling state was mainly characterized by weak decoupling. These results highlight policy implications for water managers who are charged with solving the contradiction between
4.4.3. Limitation of the proposed model Water resources decoupling model and the water environment decoupling model constructed in this paper provide feasible and effective methods for scholars to quantify the relationship between economy and water usage, and between economy and wastewater discharge. Thus, these two decoupling models can provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable development of urban water resources and economy. However, there is a limitation when using the water resources decoupling model and water environment decoupling model, data on the water consumption and wastewater volume in some cities are difficult to obtain and therefore these two decoupling models cannot be used. 92
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5. Conclusions
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Investigating Low-carbon agriculture: Case study of China’s Henan Province. Sustainability, 9, 2295. Tapio, P. (2005). Towards a theory of decoupling: Degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001. Transport Policy, 12, 137–151. Vehmas, J., Kaivo-Oja, J., & Luukkanen, J. (2018). GLOBAL TRENDS OF LINKING ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. WABGM (2017). Guangzhou Water resources bulletin. Guangzhou: Water Affairs Bureau of Guangzhou Municipality. Wang, Q., & Chen, X. (2015). Energy policies for managing China's carbon emission. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 50, 470–479. Wang, Q., Jiang, X.-t., & Li, R. (2017). Comparative decoupling analysis of energy-related carbon emission from electric output of electricity sector in Shandong Province, China. Energy, 127, 78–88.
This study investigated the coordinated development of water resources and urban economic growth in China. The research focused on the three most developed cities with the strongest economic strength in mainland China: Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Water resource decoupling model and water environment decoupling model were constructed to describe the decoupling relationship between the water resource environment and economic growth in the three cities. The analysis led to the following conclusions: (1) Rapid economic growth is inseparable from water resource utilization. As such, given its highest economic output value, Shanghai's water consumption is significantly higher than Beijing and Guangzhou. Wastewater is generated during water use, and the total wastewater discharge in three cities all trended upward from 2005-2015. This discharge was highest for Guangzhou, followed by Shanghai, and then Beijing. (2) With respect to the water resource decoupling analysis in the three cities, the decoupling state was strongest for Guangzhou (characterized by strong decoupling), followed by Shanghai (characterized by weak and strong decoupling, expansive coupling), and Beijing (characterized by weak and strong decoupling). When considering the agriculture and industry sectors in the three cities, the water resource decoupling state was better for industry than for agriculture. (3) With respect to the water environment decoupling analysis in the three cities, the decoupling state in Beijing was mainly characterized by weak decoupling. The decoupling state in Shanghai included four kinds of decoupling: strong, weak and expansive negative decoupling, and expansive coupling. Compared to Beijing and Shanghai, the decoupling state in Guangzhou was better, with strong decoupling, weak decoupling, and expansive coupling during the study period. Acknowledgements This work is supported by the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation, China (ZR2018MG016), the Initial Founding of Scientific Research for the Introduction of Talents of China University of Petroleum (East China), China (YJ2016002), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China (17CX05015B). Appendix A. Supplementary data Supplementary material related to this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.05.010. References Ali, A. M., Shafiee, M. E., & Berglund, E. Z. (2017). Agent-based modeling to simulate the dynamics of urban water supply: Climate, population growth, and water shortages. Sustainable Cities & Society, 28, 420–434. Andreoni, V., & Galmarini, S. (2012). Decoupling economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions: A decomposition analysis of Italian energy consumption. Energy, 44, 682–691. Bao, C., & Chen, X. (2015). The driving effects of urbanization on economic growth and water use change in China: A provincial-level analysis in 1997–2011. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 25, 530–544. Bao, C., & He, D. (2015). T he causal relationship between urbanization, economic growth and Water use change in Provincial China. Sustainability, 7, 16076–16085. BMBS (2017). Beijing statistics yearbook-2017. Beijing: Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Beijing. Chen, B., Yang, Q., Li, J. S., & Chen, G. Q. (2017). Decoupling analysis on energy consumption, embodied GHG emissions and economic growth — The case study of Macao. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 67, 662–672. Dan, W. (2014). Evaluation and Prospect on the decoupling trend of economic development and Water Resource utilization in China. Journal of Natural Resources. Dong, B., Zhang, M., Mu, H., & Su, X. (2016). Study on decoupling analysis between energy consumption and economic growth in Liaoning Province. Energy Policy, 97,
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environmental impact from crop production based on the water footprint method: A case study for the Heilongjiang land reclamation area, China. Ecological Indicators, 43, 29–35. Zhang, Y. J., & Da, Y. B. (2015). The decomposition of energy-related carbon emission and its decoupling with economic growth in China. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 41, 1255–1266. Zhang, Z., Xue, B., Pang, J., & Chen, X. (2016). The decoupling of Resource consumption and environmental impact from economic growth in China: Spatial pattern and temporal trend. Sustainability, 8, 222. Zhao, X., Fan, X., & Liang, J. (2017). Kuznets type relationship between water use and economic growth in China. Journal of Cleaner Production. Zhu, H., Li, W., Yu, J., Sun, W., & Yao, X. (2013). An analysis of decoupling relationships of Water uses and economic development in the Two provinces of Yunnan and Guizhou during the first Ten years of implementing the Great Western development strategy. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 18, 864–870.
Wang, Q., & Li, R. (2016). Journey to burning half of global coal: Trajectory and drivers of China׳s coal use. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 58, 341–346. Wang, Q., & Li, R. (2017a). Dec line in China’s coal consumption: An evidence of peak coal or a temporary b lip? Energy Policy, 108, 696–701. Wang, Q., & Li, R. (2017b). Research status of shale gas: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 74, 715–720. Wang, Q., Li, R., & Jiang, R. (2016). Decoupling and decomposition analysis of carbon emissions from industry: A case study from China. Sustainability, 8, 1059. Wang, Z., Zhao, L., Mao, G., & Wu, B. (2015). Eco-efficiency trends and decoupling analysis of environmental pressures in Tianjin, China. Sustainability, 7, 15407–15422. Weizsäcker, E. U. V. (1990). Erdpolitik : ökologische Realpolitik an der Schwelle zum Jahrhundert der Umwelt. Wissenschaftliche Buchgesellschaft. Wilcox, J., Nasiri, F., Bell, S., & Rahaman, M. S. (2016). Urban water reuse: A triple bottom line assessment framework and review. Sustainable Cities & Society, 27, 448–456. Zhang, Y., & Yang, Q. (2014). Decoupling agricultural water consumption and
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Decoupling analysis of economic growth from water use in City: A case study of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou of China
T
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Qiang Wanga, , Rui Jianga, Rongrong Lia,b a b
School of Economic and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China School of Management & Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Haidian District, Beijing, 100081, China
A R T I C LE I N FO
A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Decoupling model Comparative analysis Water sustainability Urban sustainability
Water scarcity is one of the biggest challenges in urban development in many countries, especially China. Better understanding the decoupling between economic growth and water usage in cities can facilitate and promote economic growth without increasing water usage. This study developed a water resource decoupling model and a water environment decoupling model to quantify the relationship between urban economic growth and water usage. China’s top three megacities (Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou) were studied to provide a case study analysis. The results show the best decoupling status between the urban economic output and water usage is Guangzhou, followed by Shanghai and Beijing. The waste resource decoupling status in industry sector was better than that in agriculture sector. The best decoupling status between the urban economic output and total waste water discharge was also Guangzhou, followed by Shanghai and Beijing.
1. Introduction
2. Literature review
Water is a strategic natural resource and plays an important role in maintaining ecological balance and promoting economic development (Rosegrant et al., 2009). Significant population growth and a driving momentum towards socio-economic development have caused global water use to be largely unsustainable (Nazemi and Madani 2018), especially in urban regions (Kontokosta and Jain 2015). As the world's second-largest economy, China is the most populous country in the world, accounting for 21% of the world's population. However, its water resources make up only 6% of the world's water resources (Gu et al., 2017). China is one of the 13 water-scarce countries in the world and has been facing a growing water scarcity crisis for a long time (Zhao et al., 2017). Water resource shortages and the deterioration of the water environment are the two main problems restricting water resource use in China. These problems are restricting China’s sustainable development. The optimal relationship between the economy and water resources environment is when the economy grows without a growth in water usage and without deteriorating the water environment. This means there is a decoupling between economic growth and the water resources environment. Therefore, research on the coordinated development of urban economic growth and the water resource environment is important to address the contradiction between China’s sustained economic development and the water resources crisis.
Water is one of the most prominent elements on earth and is very important to human life and development (Nazemi and Madani 2018, Wang and Chen 2015). Water is particularly important in urban regions because these regions are the most densely populated areas and the most economically active areas in the world (Nazemi and Madani 2017, Richter et al. 2018, Rojas et al., 2015). Therefore, may scholars have engaged in urban water research (Fraga et al., 2016, House-Peters and Chang 2011, Kingsborough et al., 2016, Noiva et al., 2016, Wilcox et al. 2016, Wang and Li 2016, Wang and Li et al., 2017a). Li et al. (2017) studied the estimated residential total water use and consumptive water use in the state of Nebraska in the United States in 2010; this provided a feasible and effective method for water managers to estimate residential water consumption (Li et al. 2017). Alireza et al. (2017) built a dynamic modeling method to simulate urban water supply dynamics, applying an agent-based modeling framework (Ali, Shafiee and Berglund 2017). S. Alireza et al. (2016) developed a new multiple regression model to predict urban water consumption. This provided a useful tool for policymakers to manage water usage by adjusting water prices and policies (Eslamian, Li and Haghighat 2016). Therefore, this study investigated mainland China’s top 3 developed cities with the greatest economic strength: Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Economic development can’t be separated from water utilization. Rapid economic growth is accompanied by water resource shortages
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Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (Q. Wang).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.05.010 Received 1 February 2018; Received in revised form 5 May 2018; Accepted 7 May 2018 Available online 19 May 2018 2210-6707/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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model has been found to be the best approach to characterize the relationship between economic growth and water use (Gilmont 2015, Wang et al. 2015, Zhang et al. 2016). Therefore, the Tapio decoupling model was used to explore the coordinated development of the water resource environment and urban economic growth in China. For this study, water research was subdivided into water resources and water environment research. Water consumption changes were used to represent changes in water resources; wastewater discharge changes were used to represent the change in the water environment change. Therefore, the water resource decoupling model and the water environment decoupling model were constructed to analyze the relationship between the water resource environment and urban economic growth in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Furthermore, based on the industrial structure and water consumption structure, the decoupling relationship between economic growth and the two major water use sectors: agriculture and industry were studied separately.
and water environment deterioration. Many scholars have explored the relationship between water and the economy, using many approaches. Ke et al. (2016) built a comprehensive multi-objective optimization model and conducted an input-output analysis to study the trade-off between economic growth, water use, and environmental protection in Ordos. The study then proposed effective industrial restructuring programs and water supply plans (Ke et al. 2016). Bao and Chen (2015) proposed a complete decomposition model to investigate driving factors, particularly urbanization, on water consumption and the economy at the provincial-level in China. The results show that urbanization can lead to a water crisis in urban areas or in urban agglomerations (Bao and Chen 2015). Zhao et al. (2017) investigated the relationship between water consumption and economic output in China using province-level panel data. The results show that China’s water use is expected to rise in the next few years and reach the inflection point by 2021 (Zhao et al. 2017). Jaramillo and Nazemi (2017) applied downscaled climate simulations to assess the impact of climate change on water security in Montreal, Canada (Jaramillo and Nazemi 2017). Chao Bao (2015) used a cointegration test and the vector error correction model Granger causality test to analyze the causal relationship between total water consumption, economic output, and urbanization level (Bao and He 2015). Decoupling theory was first proposed by Weizsäcker in 1990 (Weizsäcker 1990). Zhang et al. (2014) studied the decoupling relationship between water consumption and the impact on the water environment from crop production in Heilongjiang using the water footprint method. The results show that the decoupling state between water consumption and crop production was mainly concentrated in strong decoupling; the decoupling state between the water environment and crop production was mainly concentrated in the weak decoupling (Zhang and Yang 2014). Zhu et al. (2013) used a decoupling model to analyze the relationship between water use and the economic output of Yunnan and Guizhou in China. The results show that the decoupling state of both provinces are all highly undesirable; this outcome is due to slow economic growth, and a low efficiency and unreasonable structure of water consumption (Zhu et al. 2013). Dan (2014) constructed a decoupling tense analysis model to analyze economic development and water resources utilization in China from 1953 to 2010 (Dan 2014). This literature review shows that when analyzing the relationship between economic growth and water resources, decoupling theory is widely used. The concept of decoupling reflects the non-synchronous changes between economic growth and environmental damage (Weizsäcker 1990). The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) proposed its own decoupling model, dividing “decoupling” into two types: absolute decoupling and relative decoupling (OECD 2002). Based on the OECD decoupling model, Vehmas expanded the decoupling state from two types to six types, including: strong and weak decoupling; and strong, weak, expansive, and recessive coupling (Vehmas, Kaivo-Oja, & Luukkanen, 2018). In 2005, Tapio introduced decoupling elasticity into the decoupling model, resulting in eight decoupling state categories (weak, strong, weak negative, strong negative, expansive negative and recessive decoupling; expansive and recessive coupling) (Tapio 2005). In the field of resources and the environment, the Tapio decoupling model has been mostly used to explore the decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions (Jiang and Li et al., 2017; Zhang and Da, 2015; Wang et al., 2016; Andreoni and Galmarini, 2012; Li and Jiang, 2017; Lu et al. 2015; Su, Jiang, & Li, 2017; Wang, Jiang, & Li, 2017) many scholars have also used it to study the decoupling relationship between economic growth and the energy consumption (Dong et al. 2016, Kan and Lianju 2017, Chen et al. 2017, Zhang and Da 2015, Niu et al. 2015, Ouyang et al., 2013, Liu et al., 2011, Wang and Li et al., 2017b). In addition, the Tapio decoupling
3. Methodologies and data sources 3.1. Methodologies 3.1.1. The water resource decoupling model Urban economic growth was measured using the percent change in gross domestic product (GDP). The percent change of water consumption represents the water resources (WR). The water resource decoupling model is expressed as follows:
eijr =
ΔWRij / WRij ΔGDPij / GDPij
(1)
In this expression, i = 1,2, 3 denotes Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, respectively; j = 1,2, 3 denotes the whole city, Agriculture sector, and Industry sector, respectively; eijr denotes the decoupling elasticity value of the water consumption and economic growth; WRij denotes the water consumption; GDPij denotes the economic output value; 3.1.2. The water environment decoupling model Urban economic growth is measured using the percent change of GDP. The percent change in wastewater discharge represents the water environment (WE). The water environment decoupling model is expressed as follows:
eie =
ΔWEi/ WEi (2) ΔGDPi/ GDPi
eie denotes the decoupling elasticity value of the waste water and economic growth; WEi denotes the total discharge of waste water; GDPi denotes the economic output value; Using the Tapio decoupling model, eight logical possibilities can be defined according to the decoupling elasticity value. The eight options include strong decoupling, weak decoupling, expansive coupling, expansive negative decoupling, strong negative decoupling, weak negative decoupling, recessive coupling, and recessive decoupling. Table 1 provides the standards for dividing the eight logical possibilities. Table 2 shows the meaning of the decoupling status with respect to water resources and the water environment decoupling model. 3.2. Data source Based on data availability, this study period for this research began in 2005 and ended in 2015. The gross domestic product and gross domestic product indices (previous year = 100) of Beijing and Shanghai were collected from the China Statistical Yearbook (NBS 2017). The water consumption for Beijing and Shanghai were collected from the 87
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wastewater compared to Beijing and Shanghai. Trends associated with Shanghai’s waste water discharge were similar to Guangzhou’s waste water discharge. Beijing had the lowest wastewater discharge, while the total waste water discharge of Beijing increased year by year.
Table 1 Standards for making decoupling judgments. Degree of decoupling
ΔWRij orΔWEi
ΔGDPij orΔGDPi
eijr oreijr
Strong decoupling Weak decoupling Expansive coupling Expansive negative decoupling Strong negative decoupling Weak negative decoupling Recessive coupling Recessive decoupling
<0 ≫0 >0 >0 >0 <0 <0 <0
>0 ≫0 >0 >0 <0 <0 <0 <0
<0 0.8 > ≫ 0 1.2 > > 0.8 > 1.2 <0 0.8 > > 0 1.2 > > 0.8 > 1.2
4.2. Water resource decoupling analysis 4.2.1. Water resource decoupling analysis in Beijing Fig. 4 shows that total water consumption increased year by year, but water consumption in agriculture and industry experienced a downward trend during 2005-2015. This is because, as the capital of China, Beijing’s primary and secondary industries are gradually being replaced by tertiary industries. Table 3 shows the decoupling results between water consumption and the economic output value of the whole city, agriculture, and industry in Beijing. Table 3 shows that the decoupling state of the whole city of Beijing was very satisfactory, characterized by strong decoupling and weak decoupling. Specifically, the decoupling state was strong decoupling during 2005–2006 and 2009–2010, indicating that water consumption decreased as economic output increased. Weak decoupling occurred in the remaining years. This means that while the water consumption and economic output in Beijing all increased, the growth rate of water consumption is slower than the growth in economic output. The decoupling state of industry in Beijing is more satisfactory than that of agriculture in Beijing, characterized by strong decoupling and weak decoupling. Recessive decoupling occurred in Beijing’s industry during 2009–2010 and 2014–2015, indicating that a decreased pace in water consumption was significantly larger than the economic output of Beijing’s industry.
China Statistical Yearbook (NBS 2017). The total waste water discharged in Beijing and Shanghai were collected from the Beijing Statistical Yearbook (BMBS 2017) and Shanghai Statistical Yearbook (SMBS 2017), respectively. The GDP, GDP indices (previous year = 100), and total waste water discharged in Guangzhou came from Guangzhou Statistical Yearbook (GMBS 2017). The water consumption in Guangzhou were collected from the Guangzhou Water Resources Bulletin (WABGM 2017). To eliminate the impact of inflation, the annual GDP data were converted into 2005 constant prices. 4. Results analysis and discussion 4.1. Overall analysis of water resources and the water environment Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are the three cities with the strongest economic strength in mainland China. Fig. 1 shows that the economic output value significantly increased during the study period in these cities. More specifically, Shanghai is the most developed city. The economic output value in Shanghai increased from 789.21 billion yuan in 2005 to 1895.30 billion yuan in 2015, reflecting an average annual rate of increase of 9.16%. The economic output value in Guangzhou increased the fastest, with the highest average annual rate of increase, at 11.78%. This was a significant increase from 515.42 billion yuan in 2005 to 1569.44 billion yuan in 2015. The economic output value in Beijing increased from 463.82 billion yuan in 2005 to 1129.56 billion yuan in 2015, reflecting an average annual rate of increase of 9.31%. This rapid economic growth is inseparable from water resource utilization. Fig. 2 shows that with its highest economic output value, Shanghai’s water consumption was much higher than the other two cities. Shanghai's water consumption throughout the study period showed a downward trend, decreasing from 121.28 × 102 million m3 to 103.80 × 102 million m3 . Guangzhou’s water consumption decreased year by year from 83.61 × 102 million m3 to 66.14 × 102 million m3 . The water consumption in Beijing increased year by year, except 2005–2006, from 34.50 × 102 million m3 to 38.20 × 102 million m3 . This reflects an average annual rate of increase of 1.02%. Wastewater is generated by water use; waste water discharge was used to represent the water environment. Fig. 3 shows that the total waste water discharge from all three cities displayed an upward trend throughout the study period. Guangzhou had the highest discharge of
4.2.2. Water resource decoupling analysis in Shanghai Fig. 4 shows that total water consumption trends were similar to the water consumption by industry. This indicates that the change of industrial water consumption had a higher influence on total water consumption. This further affected the degree of decoupling between economic growth and total water consumption. The decoupling state between economic growth and the total water consumption appear to be largely determined by the decoupling state between industrial economic output and industrial water consumption. Water consumption by agriculture remained in a steady state during 2005–2015, decreasing from 18.46 × 102 million m3 in 2005 to 14.30 × 102 million m3 in 2015. Table 4 shows the decoupling results for water consumption and economic output value with respect to the whole city, and for agriculture and industry in Shanghai. The decoupling state in Shanghai was very satisfactory; the growth rate of water consumption was lower than the growth rate of economic output value throughout the study. Furthermore, the water consumption growth rate was negative, while the growth rate of economic output value was positive during 2005–2006, 2007–2008 and 2013-2015. The decoupling status was strong decoupling during those years. The decoupling status was expansive coupling during 2012-2013. This means that the water consumption and economic output value were all increasing, and the growth rate of economic output value was higher than the growth rate of water
Table 2 The decoupling status meaning of the water resource and environment decoupling model. Decoupling status
meaning
Strong decoupling Weak decoupling Expansive coupling Expansive negative decoupling Strong negative decoupling Weak negative decoupling Recessive coupling Recessive decoupling
Economy increase while water consumption (wastewater discharge) decrease The increase pace of water consumption (wastewater discharge) is obviously smaller than economy The increase pace of water consumption (wastewater discharge) is approximately equal to economy The increase pace of water consumption (wastewater discharge) is obviously bigger than economy Economy decrease while water consumption (wastewater discharge) increase The decrease pace of water consumption (wastewater discharge) is obviously smaller than economy The decrease pace of water consumption (wastewater discharge) is approximately equal to economy The decrease pace of water consumption (wastewater discharge) is obviously bigger than economy
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Fig. 1. GDP trends in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong (unit: billion yuan).
Fig. 2. Water consumption trends in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong (100 million m3).
Fig. 3. Waste water discharge trends in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong (100 million tons). Table 3 The decoupling result of the whole city, agriculture and industry in Beijing. Year
The whole city
Agriculture
Industry
2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
strong decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling
strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling recessive decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling – recessive decoupling
strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling
consumption. Weak decoupling occurred in the remaining years, indicating that the decreased pace in water consumption was significantly larger than economic output. In Shanghai, the decoupling state of industry was more satisfactory
Fig. 4. The tendency of water used in Beijing.
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Table 4 The decoupling result of the whole city, agriculture, and industry in Shanghai. Year
The whole city
Agriculture
Industry
2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
strong decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling expansive coupling strong decoupling strong decoupling
strong decoupling strong decoupling expansive negative decoupling strong negative decoupling weak negative decoupling strong negative decoupling expansive negative decoupling recessive decoupling strong decoupling weak negative decoupling
strong decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling expansive negative decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling expansive negative decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling
Fig. 5. Water use trends in Shanghai.
decoupling during 2012-2013. This means that water consumption by agriculture and economic output value of agriculture both decreased. The decreased pace of water consumption is significantly larger than the economic output of Shanghai’s agriculture. The decoupling state in the remaining years was unsatisfactory, characterized by strong negative decoupling, expansive negative decoupling, and weak negative decoupling during 2007–2012 and 2014-2015. For Shanghai’s industry, the decoupling state was satisfactory except during 2008–2009 and 2012-2013. The satisfactory decoupling states were strong decoupling and weak decoupling; the unsatisfactory decoupling state was expansive negative decoupling. 4.2.3. Water resource decoupling analysis in Guangzhou Fig. 5 shows that total water consumption and the water consumed by agriculture and industry all declined during the study period. Similar to water consumption in Shanghai, Guangzhou’s total water consumption trends were similar to industrial water consumption in Guangzhou. This indicated that the changes in industrial water consumption significantly influenced total water consumption in Guangzhou. As such, to realize the decoupling state in Guangzhou, the first step is to realize the decoupling state in Guangzhou’s industrial sector (Fig. 6). Table 5 shows the decoupling results between water consumption and economic output value for the whole city, and for the agriculture and industry sectors in Guangzhou. The decoupling state in Guangzhou was very satisfactory, characterized by strong decoupling. This means that the economic output value of Guangzhou increased, while water consumption decreased throughout the study period. For Guangzhou’s agriculture, the decoupling state fluctuated throughout the study period, with alternating instances of the satisfactory decoupling state (strong decoupling, weak decoupling) and unsatisfactory decoupling state (expansive negative decoupling, expansive coupling and recessive decoupling). These results suggest there is still a long way to go to realize the complete decoupling of agricultural water consumption in Guangzhou. The decoupling state of Guangzhou’s industry was more satisfactory
Fig. 6. Water use trends in Guangzhou.
Table 5 The decoupling results for the whole city, agriculture, and industry in Guangzhou. Year
The whole city
Agriculture
Industry
2005-2006 2006-2007
strong decoupling strong decoupling
strong decoupling strong decoupling
2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling
recessive decoupling expansive negative decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling expansive coupling weak decoupling strong decoupling
strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling strong decoupling
than agriculture. For Shanghai’s agriculture, the most satisfactory decoupling state was strong decoupling during 2005–2007 and 2013–2014; the second most satisfactory decoupling state was recessive 90
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Fig. 7. The decoupling results for the water environment in Beijing.
Fig. 8. The decoupling results for the water environment in Shanghai.
with the economic growth. Expansive negative decoupling occurred during 2008–2009, which was detrimental to the sustainable development of the Beijing’s water environment. This is because the increased pace of total waste water discharge was significantly larger than the economic output in this decoupling state. Expansive coupling occurred during 2010-2011. This reflects that fact that the increased pace of total waste water discharge is approximately equal to Beijing’s economic output. Similar to the decoupling state of Beijing, Fig. 8 shows that the decoupling relationship between economic output and total waste water discharge in Shanghai was characterized by four kinds of decoupling states: strong, weak and expansive negative decoupling, and expansive coupling. Strong decoupling occurred in 2007–2008, 2010–2011, and 2013–2014; this state was most conducive to the sustainable development of Shanghai’s water environment. Weak decoupling occurred during 2006–2007, 2008–2010, 2012–2013, and 2014-2015. This reflects the second satisfactory decoupling state between economic output and total waste water discharge. Expansive coupling was observed during 2005–2006. This reflects that the increased pace of total waste water discharge is approximately equal to
than the decoupling state associated with agriculture. The decoupling state of Guangzhou’s industry was mainly strong decoupling, which means the economic output value of Guangzhou’s industry increased, while water consumption decreased, during 2005–2012 and 20132015. Weak decoupling occurred during 2012-2013. This means that the economic output value and water consumption of Guangzhou’s industry all increased, while the growth rate of economic output was higher than the water consumption in Guangzhou’s industrial sector. 4.3. Water environment decoupling analysis Figs. 7–9 show the decoupling results for the water environment in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Fig. 7 shows that the decoupling state between the economic output and the total waste water discharge in Beijing was mainly characterized by weak decoupling. This reflects the fact that total waste water discharge has increased with economic growth; however, the growth rate of economic output is higher than the rate of total waste water discharge in Beijing. The most satisfactory decoupling state was strong decoupling during 2009–2010 and 2011–2012. This reflects that the total waste water discharge decreased 91
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Fig. 9. The decoupling results for the water environment in Guangzhou.
sustainable urban economic development and the water crisis in Beijing. First of all, Beijing, as the capital of China, has a worrying environment. Therefore, the government should vigorously develop the tertiary industry and reduce the proportion of the primary industry and the secondary industry. Secondly, in order to achieve the decoupling of water use and economic growth in Beijing, the first step is to decouple water used in agriculture. Finally, vigorously developing sewage treatment process, which can reduce the amount of wastewater discharge and produce economic benefits. In general, a comparative analysis of the decoupling results in three cities shows that rapid economic growth will indeed aggravate water shortages and deterioration of the water environment. This phenomenon is particularly prominent in Shanghai.
Shanghai’s economic output. The unsatisfactory decoupling state, which was detrimental to the sustainable development of Shanghai’s water environment, was expansive negative decoupling in 2011–2012. Fig. 9 shows that the decoupling state of Guangzhou between the economic output and the total waste water discharge was better than Beijing and Shanghai, which exhibited strong decoupling, weak decoupling, and expansive coupling throughout the study period. The most satisfactory decoupling state, which was most conducive to the sustainable development of Guangzhou’s water environment, was strong decoupling during 2006–2007 and 2008–2009. The second best decoupling state was weak decoupling during 2005–2006, 2009–2010, and 2011–2015; this decoupling state reflected that the increased pace of total waste water discharge was smaller than the economic output in Guangzhou. The third satisfactory decoupling state was expansive coupling during 2007–2008 and 2010–2011; this reflected that the increased pace of total waste water discharge and the economic output in Guangzhou were at roughly the same level.
4.4.2. Comparison of our findings with previous studies Zhao et al. explored the relationship between water use and economic growth in China from the provincial level. The results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between water use and economic growth, but water consumption has not reached the inflection point, so it can be concluded that water consumption will increase with economic growth (Zhao et al. 2017). In this paper, according to the analysis of the results, the economic output value and the water consumption of the three cities all ranked in the order: Shanghai > Guangzhou > Beijing. This confirms that "the rapid economic growth cannot be separated from the utilization of water resources" emphasized in the literature review.
4.4. Discussion 4.4.1. Comparison of decoupling of water from economic output in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou Decoupling results show the current status of the relationship between water resources, the water environment and economic growth. The decoupling state between economic output and water consumption by city follows the order: Guangzhou > Shanghai > Beijing; the decoupling state between the economic output and the total waste water discharge by city follows the order: Guangzhou > Shanghai > Beijing. It can conclude that compared with the other two cities, Beijing has the worst decoupling situation, therefore Beijing's water and wastewater discharge should be given priority. Based on the decoupling results of water resources and water environment, Beijing's primary and secondary industries are gradually being replaced by the tertiary industry. As for the water resources decoupling results analysis, Beijing's industrial decoupling status is more ideal than its agricultural decoupling status, and water environment decoupling analysis. As for the water environment decoupling results analysis, the decoupling state was mainly characterized by weak decoupling. These results highlight policy implications for water managers who are charged with solving the contradiction between
4.4.3. Limitation of the proposed model Water resources decoupling model and the water environment decoupling model constructed in this paper provide feasible and effective methods for scholars to quantify the relationship between economy and water usage, and between economy and wastewater discharge. Thus, these two decoupling models can provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable development of urban water resources and economy. However, there is a limitation when using the water resources decoupling model and water environment decoupling model, data on the water consumption and wastewater volume in some cities are difficult to obtain and therefore these two decoupling models cannot be used. 92
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This study investigated the coordinated development of water resources and urban economic growth in China. The research focused on the three most developed cities with the strongest economic strength in mainland China: Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Water resource decoupling model and water environment decoupling model were constructed to describe the decoupling relationship between the water resource environment and economic growth in the three cities. The analysis led to the following conclusions: (1) Rapid economic growth is inseparable from water resource utilization. As such, given its highest economic output value, Shanghai's water consumption is significantly higher than Beijing and Guangzhou. Wastewater is generated during water use, and the total wastewater discharge in three cities all trended upward from 2005-2015. This discharge was highest for Guangzhou, followed by Shanghai, and then Beijing. (2) With respect to the water resource decoupling analysis in the three cities, the decoupling state was strongest for Guangzhou (characterized by strong decoupling), followed by Shanghai (characterized by weak and strong decoupling, expansive coupling), and Beijing (characterized by weak and strong decoupling). When considering the agriculture and industry sectors in the three cities, the water resource decoupling state was better for industry than for agriculture. (3) With respect to the water environment decoupling analysis in the three cities, the decoupling state in Beijing was mainly characterized by weak decoupling. The decoupling state in Shanghai included four kinds of decoupling: strong, weak and expansive negative decoupling, and expansive coupling. Compared to Beijing and Shanghai, the decoupling state in Guangzhou was better, with strong decoupling, weak decoupling, and expansive coupling during the study period. Acknowledgements This work is supported by the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation, China (ZR2018MG016), the Initial Founding of Scientific Research for the Introduction of Talents of China University of Petroleum (East China), China (YJ2016002), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China (17CX05015B). Appendix A. Supplementary data Supplementary material related to this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.05.010. References Ali, A. M., Shafiee, M. E., & Berglund, E. Z. (2017). Agent-based modeling to simulate the dynamics of urban water supply: Climate, population growth, and water shortages. Sustainable Cities & Society, 28, 420–434. Andreoni, V., & Galmarini, S. (2012). Decoupling economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions: A decomposition analysis of Italian energy consumption. Energy, 44, 682–691. Bao, C., & Chen, X. (2015). The driving effects of urbanization on economic growth and water use change in China: A provincial-level analysis in 1997–2011. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 25, 530–544. Bao, C., & He, D. (2015). T he causal relationship between urbanization, economic growth and Water use change in Provincial China. Sustainability, 7, 16076–16085. BMBS (2017). Beijing statistics yearbook-2017. Beijing: Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Beijing. Chen, B., Yang, Q., Li, J. S., & Chen, G. Q. (2017). Decoupling analysis on energy consumption, embodied GHG emissions and economic growth — The case study of Macao. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 67, 662–672. Dan, W. (2014). Evaluation and Prospect on the decoupling trend of economic development and Water Resource utilization in China. Journal of Natural Resources. Dong, B., Zhang, M., Mu, H., & Su, X. (2016). Study on decoupling analysis between energy consumption and economic growth in Liaoning Province. Energy Policy, 97,
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