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Delphi research method: An experimental trial in Indonesia
Introduction
Delphi Research Method: An Experimental Trial in Indonesia Colin H. C. Bacon Department of Business Studies, University of Edinburgh Colin H. C. Bacon has been Resident Consultant for the Scottish Business School in Indonesia for the past three and a half years, working with a group of universities on staff development and faculty development in the fields of economics, business studies and accountancy. After graduating in PPE from Oxford in 1953, he worked for nine years in the oil industry in East Africa and Britain, before moving into Management Consultancy and post-experience management training. From being Assistant Director of Studies at the College of Marketing (Institute of Marketing), he moved to full-time consultancy with P-E Consulting Group and later Scientific Control Systems Ltd, a subsidiary of BP, working in South-East Asia, East Africa, Ireland and Europe. Since early 1974 he has been primarily concerned with industrial and economic d~velopment in South-East Asia. The introduction o f any new -- and frequently sophisticated technique o f management or economics in a developing country requires a cautious approach, not least because the educational and cultural divide between the developed and the develophzg worm sometimes renders such innovation inappropriate or conflictual with established practice. A t Airlangga University in East Java, the trial use o f the Delphi Research Method in several faculties was surprisingly successful. The author describes how the trial succeeded and attempts to explahz why it did from the cultural and philosophical points o f view, concluding favourably on the future o f this technique in hzdonesia.
Airlangga University in East Java faces problems that are common to most universities, particularly in developing countries, in seeking to raise academic standards, impro,r staff/student performance, allocate scarce resources and tailor curricula more closely to the needs of society. The process of bringing about innovation and improvement is, however, itself a fundamental issue and is of course one that concerns not jugt the university environment, but all aspects of economic activity from central Government downwards. An important part of this process involves the reconciliation of what is usually a wide variety of expert and lay opinions, of those having vested interests with those claiming impartiality, and of those who give prominence to facts discovered empirically with those who, in contrast, attach greater weight to ethical, moral and philosophical issues. A university is in many ways a microcosm of the economic order and since in Indonesia file state university system is part and parcel of the Government bureaucracy, it is a reasonable assumption that the way decisions are reached there does not differ radicaily from the mode of the bureaucracy at large. The idea of using the Delphi research m e t h o d at Airlangga was partly based on the need to clarify issues to pave the way for more effective decision-making and partly to test the acceptability of the technique itself. On both counts the Delphi exercises, conducted over a period of three months, proved remarkably successful. A considerable n u m b e r of topics, problems and aspects of problems were examined, codified and reduced to a limited and manageable number of basic issues, which were then allocated priority-rated action programmes. The technique i n nearly all cases was received with enthusiasm and was fully endorsed by the participants in terms of validity and relevance. There was a third benefit, confined to the monitoring team, in that this experience provided further insight into Indonesian decision-making behaviour. It also gave J
84
an opportunity to test the hypothesis that such behavioural patterns are capable of receiving structural mad m e t h o d improvement, ~vithout detraction from the fundamental cultural traits upon which they are based. It should of course be borne in mind that the Delphimethod is not a decision-making process p e r se -resulting in executive action and feedback -- but is an analytical aid to reaching decisions for the executive authority to consider.
tional process of reaching decisions is at variance with Western practice, in that it is the code of conduct or behaviour of those involved in decision-making that is considered of supreme importance, rather than any salient facts that may be discovered or presented.
Decision-making: the East/West Contrast
Of course the impact of Western thought and teaching, especially during the last thirty years, has produced significant changes. Those Indonesians possessing a Western education or those working with foreign experts and advisors, particularly in the scientific, engineering and medical fields, have of necessity as well as persuasion adopted Western decision-making practice.
To Westerners, Indonesian decisionmaking often appears bewildering. Decisions 'emerge' eventually after lengthy discussions that include opinionseeking, reaching consensus agreement This paper describes the background and obtaining prior approval in principle to this experimental trial, the nature of from those in authority. There is, too, the exercise and the results in general a confusing circuitry about the entire terms. Observance of confidentiality pre- process and a concealment of authority. cludes revelation of detailed, subject Foreigners are often critical of this state matter. In the attempt to explain why of affairs; some take a more pragmatic the exercise succeeded as it did, con- view, pointing out that differences in clusions are drawn concerning the culture, tradition and outlook merely technique's wider application in obscure but do not alter the fundamental Indonesia. process of reaching decisions typical in Western domocracies.
In the Western world the decisionmaking process assumes many forms, ranging on the one hand from tile authoritarian to the democratic and on the other from simple to complex quantitative analysis. The one feature that can be observed as characteristic of contemporary Western practice, however, is the emphasis on the interpretation of fact rather than the assessment of opinion (frequently unsupported by fact).
In many fields of endeavour, however, and noticeably in the social and hehavioural sciences, traditional Indonesian practice persists, as it does away from the centres of power.
The history of Western philosophy Many commentators have concluded and particularly, in this context, the that it is both inappropriate and culturally influence of Aristotle and later Locke, undesirable to impose Western politicolaid the foundations for this approach. economic philosophy and practice, withIn more recent times the rapid developan a p r i o r i justification out establishing ment of science and technology has on tile grounds of economic progress spawned the development of the 'sciena n d / o r ensuring compatibility with the tific method', with its even greater emphasis on the gathering, interpreta- traditional way of life. tion and manipulation of data for Seen in this context, therefore, it is an decision-making, accompanied by, as a exciting and reassuring event to discover corollary, a diminution of the importance a mode of Western practice or technique of the decision-maker's subjective role. that does seem totally compatible with, By way of contrast, in/parts--of the gud-is-a'elevant to, the needs and culture Orient, especially in Indort'~ia; the tradi- of a country such as Indonesia.
85
The Delphi Research Method The Delphi m e t h o d is a teclmique for marshalling a multitude of facts and/or opinions pertaining to some task, projected event or problem area; it seeks to identify the real issues, exposes the extent and nature of differences of opinion or interpretation, provides a structured forum for reconciling conflicting views as far as possible, and through the medium of anonymous polling produces a consensus view, after several rounds. The logical and most desirable outcome of a Delphi exercise is the production of action programmes geared to specific objectives. The Delphi m e t h o d has been well expounded by Linstone and Turoff 1, whose b o o k provided much of the guidance for this trial. During its comparatively short history outside the field of defence studies the Delphi m e t h o d has been mainly applied to prognosis of one form or another over the past fifteen years. The forecasting role is wetl known, particularly in the field of technology. Delphi has been employed to deal xvith situations where, given certain facts, a prediction is sought or given a certain event the probable outcome is assessed.
reconcile a multitude of needs with resource constraints as well as taking into account a wide variety of opinions both expert and lay.) In these examples the emphasis is on data inputs and on reconciling such with perhaps political and general economic considerations. Causal relationships are either largely known or can be determined. In contrast with this range of applications, there is the 'policy' form of Delphi which is diagnostic rather than prognostic in nature. The distinction is well expounded by Murray Turoff 2. In seeking solutions, the causes of the problem or situation are of critical importance. Unlike the prognostic kind, the causes are either in dispute or are unknown. Typically, a simple 'policy' Delphi would be concerned with strategic options, each dependent on a 'discovered' causal relationship. For example: Given a declining market for Product A Which policy is appropriate? 1 Withdraw product, 2 Redesign product, 3 Promote product, 4 Reduce price, etc.
Emphasis on causes can be more significant, where solutions are themselves Given A, B, C, D, economic indica- less controversial or open to doubt once tors causes are known or agreed. This was the T h e n . . . what is the predicted rate case with the modified kind of 'policy' of i n f a t i o n in year n ? Delphi that was used in this trial in its conventional, that is non-computerized, form, Given a nuclear attack on the USA T h e n . . . which of various possible outcomes is probable? Design of the Delphi Trial
For example:
or
Also under the heading of prognosis The trial used groups of academics the m e t h o d is employed in a more deter- and adminsitrators organized on a faculty ministic role, to arrive at, perhaps, a basis and was aimed at discovering the complex calculation. main causes of the problem of less than satisfactory faculty/student performance. For example: Having done so, the ultimate aim of the Given the problem of relief of an trial was to suggest action programmes economically depressed a r e a . . . geared to specific goals. The choice of a How much money is required to faculty base rather than a cross-faculty achieve certain objectives? (This one rested partly on the assumption that example verges on a cost]benefit the problems would differ significantly exercise, whereby Delphi is used to between faculties. In fact a high degree 86
of commonality emerged. Another reason, perhaps more important, was to test the acceptability of the technique in both 'exact' science-based and 'nonexact' social science faculties. There were three particular dangers or pitfalls to which the trials could be prone: first, the design/monitor team comprised two foreigners, Dr Don Floumoy, visiting Fulbright Professor from Ohio University, who was the prime instigator, and the writer, a fact which might inhibit free discussion. Secondly, there was tim linguistic problem; it is not easy to translate into Bahasa Indonesian fine shades of meaning and the English competence of file participants varied from very good to mediocre. Thirdly, the time constraints and discipline inherent in the technique could lead to 'steam-rollering' and thereby distortion of results. Consequently, the design brief of the exercise aimed at building in safeguards to overcome these potential difficulties. Four Delphi exercises were conducted in the faculties of Economics, Law, Medicine and Pharmacy. The participating groups varied from twelve to fifteen people and in the Faculty of Economics, for example, comprised: the Dean and two Assistant Deans, a part-time Professor with extensive external experience and interests, two full-time Heads of Departments, two full-time Senior Lecturers, one part-time Senior Lecturer with broad business and consulting experience and three Junior Lecturers. The group in this case represented administrative and academic staff, all three Departments, senior and junior staff, full- and part-time staff and those with a good understanding of the Governm e n t and business environment. Each exercise was divided into four rounds as opposed to the five usually found in a 'policy' Delphi, involving polling, analysis and feedback after each round. Considerable time for evaluation, discussion and voting on marginal issues and definitions was built into the procedure. The reduction in rounds was achieved by pre-formulating the more obvious issues, seeding the list with an initial range of options and clarifying
in advance both underlying assumptions and a number of terminological def'mitions. In particular it was necessary to define carefully a 1 - 4 rating scale applied in the first round to relative 'importance' and later to 'urgency', 'desirability', and 'feasibility' (level of confidence was omitted). About sixty issues were initially considered in random order. Five main groups of issues emerged, concerned with:
0
communications and management Scholarship and professional development Curriculum Working conditions and physical facilities Student affairs
By the end of the exercise, twelve main issues had been identified and twelve action programmes geared to specific goals had been produced, in the case of the Economics Faculty, which was fairly typical of all the trials. The flow charts (Rounds 1 - 4 ) illustrate the procedure for each round. Each round occupied the group for one day and each trial exercise was run over a period of around three weeks. There was therefore adequate time for individuals to carry out their own research between rounds. The amount of time dearly depends upon the relative importance and complexity of file subject. In the case of this trial a slightly longer time would have been desirable. The feedback after the first three rounds provided by the monitoring team included a statistical analysis, which permitted the participants to check for themselves the accuracy of the findings, as well as giving them information on marginal issues and the range of the ratings. This is an important feature of the exercise, since it adds greatly to confidence in the technique.
Results and Findings In all cases at lease sixty issues and problems associated with faculty/student 87
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performance were reduced and redefined through anonymous consensus agreement down to around twleve main issues, which were converted into action programmes. Each action programme comprised a definition of the problem, the primary causes of the problem, the specific goal, the proposed action steps, the persons responsible and the resources needed. The conducting of this limited trial of the Delphi method revealed the following conclusions: 1 The method itself proved to be both acceptable and workable amongst the paticipants, evidenced by favourable feedback both during and after the exercises. 2 There is a close relationship between the Delphi method and the natural process of enquiry that is customary in Indonesia. The group dynamic particularly appealed. 3 The method produced a dramatic clarification of a wide range of issues, with a measurable increase in understanding by those involved. Accordingly there was an educational effect of some significance. 4 The difficulties that did occur were primarily of a linguistic nature rather than conceptual. 5 The exercise covered a substantial number of aspects of the central issue and achieved a logical and welldiscussed summary in a short space of time. The method proved to be a significant accelerator to the process of reaching decisions. 6 There was a noticeable increase in confidence in the method as the exercise progressed and a degree of scepticism at the start concerning the anonymity of individual responses was soon dispelled. 7 The technique minimized any tendency towards slavish following by junior participants of the most senior member of the group. Changes of opinion followed persuasive argument and anonymous voting and there was evidence, known only to the monitors, of the views of senior staff sometimes being overruled.
Overall, the exercises revealed that this kind of Delphi method technique did not conflict with established practice. Reasons for this will now be advanced. The principal characteristic of the 'policy' Delphi is considered to be Hegelistic, deriving agreement out of conflict. Opposing views are analysed in such a way as to produce a consensus agreement based on persuasion or compromise. This trial was less openly conflictual than would have been the case in a Western university, where academics are noted for their assertiveness. In Indonesia the traditional culture of the country, particularly in Java, has tended to minimize forceful debate where people of differing status or authority meet together. This can be attributed to the priyayi etiquette: Clifford Geertz 3 writes; 'The polishing of interpersonal behaviour into smooth d e c o r u m . . , provides the official with a set of rigidly formal ways of doing things, w h i r l conceals his real feelings from others'. Differences of opinion tend to be inferred rather than openly stated and deference to the leader is felt to be very important. Debate is often protracted as delegates seek to phrase differences that are courteous and mild in manner rather than assertive. Delphi certainly does provide plenty of scope for debate, but it is the anonymity of the polling that is the key factor. This question of conflict goes further than etiquette as Theodore M. Smith writes 4 : ' . . . interpersonal conflict, a condition abhorrent to most Indonesians and particularly so to the Javanese. Part of this abhorrence stems from strongly felt mystical fears of retribution; part of it emanates from a desire not to offend anyone. Added to this, there is the perceived (and very often real) danger of bureaucratic retribution'. The anonymity factor and the submersion of the individual within a group in Delphi seems to reduce this cultural inhibition. The entire concept of group problemsolving is fully compatible with Indonesian cultural behaviour. The group discussion, committee, seminar and workshop are to many Westerners overplayed, but it needs to be appreciated J
90
that these are the modem successors to the traditional rnusyakarah or group discussion. Rather than reduce the number of meetings, perhaps it is wiser to try to make them more effective. To this end Delphi has a very useful role to play. It is' the anonymous polling feature that particularly distinguishes Delphi and which compels people to make individual judgements. At the start there was clearly doubt about anonymity and, with it, some hesitation on the part of some to commit themselves. However, once the merchanics of the exercise became better understood, confidence grew and the hushed whispers and uncertain looks ceased. The feedback feature of Delphi, giving participants the chance to revise or modify their thinking in the next round, is also consistent with Indonesian group behaviour. By this means, together with ratings, a consensus is reached and that is something which is deeply rooted in Indonesian culture (mufakat), to the extent that a failure to reach a consensus wonld be found disturbing. The critics of Delphi argue that it falsely pushes people towards consensus and that there is scope for manipulation, producing distortion of the tree majority feeling. Feedback permits people to fall in line with the majority view whether for feelings of duty or genuine change of mind. This is where the monitoring team have a special responsibility to ensure that minority views are properly made known and discussed. It is partly a 'face-saving' exercise that is required of the monitors, if the exponents of a minority view are identified -- if only b y inference. There was some evidence that what started as a minority view later became a majority view after discussion and reconsideration. The risk of distortion appeared to be only marginal and, in any event, would be infinitely less than would occur at an ordinary meeting involving any decisionreaching. The discipline and time constraints implicit in the Delphi method are seemingly at variance with conventional
bureaucratic practice. However, given a structural framework requiring such a group modus operandi, these proved acceptable. It is mainly when individuals perceive no real need or pressure for speed or decisiveness that time assumes little consequence and inertia creeps in. The group dynamic is powerful and once the ground roles have been clearly set, then the group becomes self-motivated to achieve its declared objective within the limitations imposed. The maintenance of cohesion of the group is of paramount importance to Indonesians and this is perhaps a reflection of the historical function of bureaucracy which, as Theodore Smith points out, was not productivity or change but the maintenance of unity through stability. The Delphi method can it seems bridge the gap between the need for producing change and the maintenance of this stability through consensus agreement. The trial clearly demonstrated that the underlying philosophy of Delphi was consistent with Indonesian custom and practice.
The Future of Delphi in Indonesia It is recognized that this was a restricted trial involving only one kind of Delphi method. However, on the basis of this limited evidence it would certainly seem very desirable to test file method more widely and in different forms in Indonesia. The prognostic kind of Delphi, handling a mass of empirical data, is likely to meet with difficulty in Indonesiabecause of file current widespread mistrust of statistical data and the reluctance of decision-makers to form judgements based largely on this kind of evidence. Modified forms, synthesizing theoretical analysis with empirical data and scientific data wiflI ethical values - more in line with the philosophy of Kant or Singer rather than Locke - - w o u l d seem more appropriate to Indonesian thinking and practice.
91
The lack of computing facilities and networks in Indonesia rules out at the moment the 'conference' or computerized Delphi, except in a handful of locations. However, if and when such facilities expand, then the anonymous computer terminal could give a significant boost to the acceptance of this technique.
experience communication blocks between file local and foreign directorate, because neither side is properly attuned to the way of thinking of others. It seems likely that Delphi could be used successfully to help bridge this gap, to the benefit of both parties.
The university environment of this trial will hopefully stimulate thinking With regard to applications, there are about the potential use of the Delphi many complex problems which are method of enquiry in Indonesia. From currently proving extremely difficult to a modest start perhaps it will eventually solve. Difficulties in harnessing and make a significant contribution to the synthesizing expert opinion are a con- improvement of decision-making in this tributory factor and this is where the country. Delphi method could prove an invaluable aid. Small business development policy, transmigration, demographic issues and R e f e r e n c e s the establishment of economic develop1 Linstone, Harold and Turoff, Murray ment priorities are matters that come (editors), The Delphi Method: Techimmediately to mind, which might prove niques and Applications, Addisonamenable to this teclmique. Wesley Publishing Co., 1975. In industry and business, the technique 2 Turoff, Murray, 'The design of a could prove most helpful to corporate policy Delphi', Technological Foreplanning and in particular to such matters casting and Social Change, 1970, 2 (2). as market strategy, technological fore- 3 Geertz, Clifford, The Religion of Java, casting and personnel development Free Press of Glencoe, London, 1960, policy. The paucity of published statistics Chapter 17. in Indonesia presents difficulties to 4 Smith, Theodore M., 'Stimulating perlarge companies and this is something for formance in the Indonesian bureauwhich Delphi can help compensate by cracy: gaps in the administrator's tool harnessing a wide range of opinion or kit, Economic Development and advice. Multinational companies often Cultural Change, July 1975, 23 (4).
92
Delphi Research Method: An Experimental Trial in Indonesia Colin H. C. Bacon Department of Business Studies, University of Edinburgh Colin H. C. Bacon has been Resident Consultant for the Scottish Business School in Indonesia for the past three and a half years, working with a group of universities on staff development and faculty development in the fields of economics, business studies and accountancy. After graduating in PPE from Oxford in 1953, he worked for nine years in the oil industry in East Africa and Britain, before moving into Management Consultancy and post-experience management training. From being Assistant Director of Studies at the College of Marketing (Institute of Marketing), he moved to full-time consultancy with P-E Consulting Group and later Scientific Control Systems Ltd, a subsidiary of BP, working in South-East Asia, East Africa, Ireland and Europe. Since early 1974 he has been primarily concerned with industrial and economic d~velopment in South-East Asia. The introduction o f any new -- and frequently sophisticated technique o f management or economics in a developing country requires a cautious approach, not least because the educational and cultural divide between the developed and the develophzg worm sometimes renders such innovation inappropriate or conflictual with established practice. A t Airlangga University in East Java, the trial use o f the Delphi Research Method in several faculties was surprisingly successful. The author describes how the trial succeeded and attempts to explahz why it did from the cultural and philosophical points o f view, concluding favourably on the future o f this technique in hzdonesia.
Airlangga University in East Java faces problems that are common to most universities, particularly in developing countries, in seeking to raise academic standards, impro,r staff/student performance, allocate scarce resources and tailor curricula more closely to the needs of society. The process of bringing about innovation and improvement is, however, itself a fundamental issue and is of course one that concerns not jugt the university environment, but all aspects of economic activity from central Government downwards. An important part of this process involves the reconciliation of what is usually a wide variety of expert and lay opinions, of those having vested interests with those claiming impartiality, and of those who give prominence to facts discovered empirically with those who, in contrast, attach greater weight to ethical, moral and philosophical issues. A university is in many ways a microcosm of the economic order and since in Indonesia file state university system is part and parcel of the Government bureaucracy, it is a reasonable assumption that the way decisions are reached there does not differ radicaily from the mode of the bureaucracy at large. The idea of using the Delphi research m e t h o d at Airlangga was partly based on the need to clarify issues to pave the way for more effective decision-making and partly to test the acceptability of the technique itself. On both counts the Delphi exercises, conducted over a period of three months, proved remarkably successful. A considerable n u m b e r of topics, problems and aspects of problems were examined, codified and reduced to a limited and manageable number of basic issues, which were then allocated priority-rated action programmes. The technique i n nearly all cases was received with enthusiasm and was fully endorsed by the participants in terms of validity and relevance. There was a third benefit, confined to the monitoring team, in that this experience provided further insight into Indonesian decision-making behaviour. It also gave J
84
an opportunity to test the hypothesis that such behavioural patterns are capable of receiving structural mad m e t h o d improvement, ~vithout detraction from the fundamental cultural traits upon which they are based. It should of course be borne in mind that the Delphimethod is not a decision-making process p e r se -resulting in executive action and feedback -- but is an analytical aid to reaching decisions for the executive authority to consider.
tional process of reaching decisions is at variance with Western practice, in that it is the code of conduct or behaviour of those involved in decision-making that is considered of supreme importance, rather than any salient facts that may be discovered or presented.
Decision-making: the East/West Contrast
Of course the impact of Western thought and teaching, especially during the last thirty years, has produced significant changes. Those Indonesians possessing a Western education or those working with foreign experts and advisors, particularly in the scientific, engineering and medical fields, have of necessity as well as persuasion adopted Western decision-making practice.
To Westerners, Indonesian decisionmaking often appears bewildering. Decisions 'emerge' eventually after lengthy discussions that include opinionseeking, reaching consensus agreement This paper describes the background and obtaining prior approval in principle to this experimental trial, the nature of from those in authority. There is, too, the exercise and the results in general a confusing circuitry about the entire terms. Observance of confidentiality pre- process and a concealment of authority. cludes revelation of detailed, subject Foreigners are often critical of this state matter. In the attempt to explain why of affairs; some take a more pragmatic the exercise succeeded as it did, con- view, pointing out that differences in clusions are drawn concerning the culture, tradition and outlook merely technique's wider application in obscure but do not alter the fundamental Indonesia. process of reaching decisions typical in Western domocracies.
In the Western world the decisionmaking process assumes many forms, ranging on the one hand from tile authoritarian to the democratic and on the other from simple to complex quantitative analysis. The one feature that can be observed as characteristic of contemporary Western practice, however, is the emphasis on the interpretation of fact rather than the assessment of opinion (frequently unsupported by fact).
In many fields of endeavour, however, and noticeably in the social and hehavioural sciences, traditional Indonesian practice persists, as it does away from the centres of power.
The history of Western philosophy Many commentators have concluded and particularly, in this context, the that it is both inappropriate and culturally influence of Aristotle and later Locke, undesirable to impose Western politicolaid the foundations for this approach. economic philosophy and practice, withIn more recent times the rapid developan a p r i o r i justification out establishing ment of science and technology has on tile grounds of economic progress spawned the development of the 'sciena n d / o r ensuring compatibility with the tific method', with its even greater emphasis on the gathering, interpreta- traditional way of life. tion and manipulation of data for Seen in this context, therefore, it is an decision-making, accompanied by, as a exciting and reassuring event to discover corollary, a diminution of the importance a mode of Western practice or technique of the decision-maker's subjective role. that does seem totally compatible with, By way of contrast, in/parts--of the gud-is-a'elevant to, the needs and culture Orient, especially in Indort'~ia; the tradi- of a country such as Indonesia.
85
The Delphi Research Method The Delphi m e t h o d is a teclmique for marshalling a multitude of facts and/or opinions pertaining to some task, projected event or problem area; it seeks to identify the real issues, exposes the extent and nature of differences of opinion or interpretation, provides a structured forum for reconciling conflicting views as far as possible, and through the medium of anonymous polling produces a consensus view, after several rounds. The logical and most desirable outcome of a Delphi exercise is the production of action programmes geared to specific objectives. The Delphi m e t h o d has been well expounded by Linstone and Turoff 1, whose b o o k provided much of the guidance for this trial. During its comparatively short history outside the field of defence studies the Delphi m e t h o d has been mainly applied to prognosis of one form or another over the past fifteen years. The forecasting role is wetl known, particularly in the field of technology. Delphi has been employed to deal xvith situations where, given certain facts, a prediction is sought or given a certain event the probable outcome is assessed.
reconcile a multitude of needs with resource constraints as well as taking into account a wide variety of opinions both expert and lay.) In these examples the emphasis is on data inputs and on reconciling such with perhaps political and general economic considerations. Causal relationships are either largely known or can be determined. In contrast with this range of applications, there is the 'policy' form of Delphi which is diagnostic rather than prognostic in nature. The distinction is well expounded by Murray Turoff 2. In seeking solutions, the causes of the problem or situation are of critical importance. Unlike the prognostic kind, the causes are either in dispute or are unknown. Typically, a simple 'policy' Delphi would be concerned with strategic options, each dependent on a 'discovered' causal relationship. For example: Given a declining market for Product A Which policy is appropriate? 1 Withdraw product, 2 Redesign product, 3 Promote product, 4 Reduce price, etc.
Emphasis on causes can be more significant, where solutions are themselves Given A, B, C, D, economic indica- less controversial or open to doubt once tors causes are known or agreed. This was the T h e n . . . what is the predicted rate case with the modified kind of 'policy' of i n f a t i o n in year n ? Delphi that was used in this trial in its conventional, that is non-computerized, form, Given a nuclear attack on the USA T h e n . . . which of various possible outcomes is probable? Design of the Delphi Trial
For example:
or
Also under the heading of prognosis The trial used groups of academics the m e t h o d is employed in a more deter- and adminsitrators organized on a faculty ministic role, to arrive at, perhaps, a basis and was aimed at discovering the complex calculation. main causes of the problem of less than satisfactory faculty/student performance. For example: Having done so, the ultimate aim of the Given the problem of relief of an trial was to suggest action programmes economically depressed a r e a . . . geared to specific goals. The choice of a How much money is required to faculty base rather than a cross-faculty achieve certain objectives? (This one rested partly on the assumption that example verges on a cost]benefit the problems would differ significantly exercise, whereby Delphi is used to between faculties. In fact a high degree 86
of commonality emerged. Another reason, perhaps more important, was to test the acceptability of the technique in both 'exact' science-based and 'nonexact' social science faculties. There were three particular dangers or pitfalls to which the trials could be prone: first, the design/monitor team comprised two foreigners, Dr Don Floumoy, visiting Fulbright Professor from Ohio University, who was the prime instigator, and the writer, a fact which might inhibit free discussion. Secondly, there was tim linguistic problem; it is not easy to translate into Bahasa Indonesian fine shades of meaning and the English competence of file participants varied from very good to mediocre. Thirdly, the time constraints and discipline inherent in the technique could lead to 'steam-rollering' and thereby distortion of results. Consequently, the design brief of the exercise aimed at building in safeguards to overcome these potential difficulties. Four Delphi exercises were conducted in the faculties of Economics, Law, Medicine and Pharmacy. The participating groups varied from twelve to fifteen people and in the Faculty of Economics, for example, comprised: the Dean and two Assistant Deans, a part-time Professor with extensive external experience and interests, two full-time Heads of Departments, two full-time Senior Lecturers, one part-time Senior Lecturer with broad business and consulting experience and three Junior Lecturers. The group in this case represented administrative and academic staff, all three Departments, senior and junior staff, full- and part-time staff and those with a good understanding of the Governm e n t and business environment. Each exercise was divided into four rounds as opposed to the five usually found in a 'policy' Delphi, involving polling, analysis and feedback after each round. Considerable time for evaluation, discussion and voting on marginal issues and definitions was built into the procedure. The reduction in rounds was achieved by pre-formulating the more obvious issues, seeding the list with an initial range of options and clarifying
in advance both underlying assumptions and a number of terminological def'mitions. In particular it was necessary to define carefully a 1 - 4 rating scale applied in the first round to relative 'importance' and later to 'urgency', 'desirability', and 'feasibility' (level of confidence was omitted). About sixty issues were initially considered in random order. Five main groups of issues emerged, concerned with:
0
communications and management Scholarship and professional development Curriculum Working conditions and physical facilities Student affairs
By the end of the exercise, twelve main issues had been identified and twelve action programmes geared to specific goals had been produced, in the case of the Economics Faculty, which was fairly typical of all the trials. The flow charts (Rounds 1 - 4 ) illustrate the procedure for each round. Each round occupied the group for one day and each trial exercise was run over a period of around three weeks. There was therefore adequate time for individuals to carry out their own research between rounds. The amount of time dearly depends upon the relative importance and complexity of file subject. In the case of this trial a slightly longer time would have been desirable. The feedback after the first three rounds provided by the monitoring team included a statistical analysis, which permitted the participants to check for themselves the accuracy of the findings, as well as giving them information on marginal issues and the range of the ratings. This is an important feature of the exercise, since it adds greatly to confidence in the technique.
Results and Findings In all cases at lease sixty issues and problems associated with faculty/student 87
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t
/
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E
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performance were reduced and redefined through anonymous consensus agreement down to around twleve main issues, which were converted into action programmes. Each action programme comprised a definition of the problem, the primary causes of the problem, the specific goal, the proposed action steps, the persons responsible and the resources needed. The conducting of this limited trial of the Delphi method revealed the following conclusions: 1 The method itself proved to be both acceptable and workable amongst the paticipants, evidenced by favourable feedback both during and after the exercises. 2 There is a close relationship between the Delphi method and the natural process of enquiry that is customary in Indonesia. The group dynamic particularly appealed. 3 The method produced a dramatic clarification of a wide range of issues, with a measurable increase in understanding by those involved. Accordingly there was an educational effect of some significance. 4 The difficulties that did occur were primarily of a linguistic nature rather than conceptual. 5 The exercise covered a substantial number of aspects of the central issue and achieved a logical and welldiscussed summary in a short space of time. The method proved to be a significant accelerator to the process of reaching decisions. 6 There was a noticeable increase in confidence in the method as the exercise progressed and a degree of scepticism at the start concerning the anonymity of individual responses was soon dispelled. 7 The technique minimized any tendency towards slavish following by junior participants of the most senior member of the group. Changes of opinion followed persuasive argument and anonymous voting and there was evidence, known only to the monitors, of the views of senior staff sometimes being overruled.
Overall, the exercises revealed that this kind of Delphi method technique did not conflict with established practice. Reasons for this will now be advanced. The principal characteristic of the 'policy' Delphi is considered to be Hegelistic, deriving agreement out of conflict. Opposing views are analysed in such a way as to produce a consensus agreement based on persuasion or compromise. This trial was less openly conflictual than would have been the case in a Western university, where academics are noted for their assertiveness. In Indonesia the traditional culture of the country, particularly in Java, has tended to minimize forceful debate where people of differing status or authority meet together. This can be attributed to the priyayi etiquette: Clifford Geertz 3 writes; 'The polishing of interpersonal behaviour into smooth d e c o r u m . . , provides the official with a set of rigidly formal ways of doing things, w h i r l conceals his real feelings from others'. Differences of opinion tend to be inferred rather than openly stated and deference to the leader is felt to be very important. Debate is often protracted as delegates seek to phrase differences that are courteous and mild in manner rather than assertive. Delphi certainly does provide plenty of scope for debate, but it is the anonymity of the polling that is the key factor. This question of conflict goes further than etiquette as Theodore M. Smith writes 4 : ' . . . interpersonal conflict, a condition abhorrent to most Indonesians and particularly so to the Javanese. Part of this abhorrence stems from strongly felt mystical fears of retribution; part of it emanates from a desire not to offend anyone. Added to this, there is the perceived (and very often real) danger of bureaucratic retribution'. The anonymity factor and the submersion of the individual within a group in Delphi seems to reduce this cultural inhibition. The entire concept of group problemsolving is fully compatible with Indonesian cultural behaviour. The group discussion, committee, seminar and workshop are to many Westerners overplayed, but it needs to be appreciated J
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that these are the modem successors to the traditional rnusyakarah or group discussion. Rather than reduce the number of meetings, perhaps it is wiser to try to make them more effective. To this end Delphi has a very useful role to play. It is' the anonymous polling feature that particularly distinguishes Delphi and which compels people to make individual judgements. At the start there was clearly doubt about anonymity and, with it, some hesitation on the part of some to commit themselves. However, once the merchanics of the exercise became better understood, confidence grew and the hushed whispers and uncertain looks ceased. The feedback feature of Delphi, giving participants the chance to revise or modify their thinking in the next round, is also consistent with Indonesian group behaviour. By this means, together with ratings, a consensus is reached and that is something which is deeply rooted in Indonesian culture (mufakat), to the extent that a failure to reach a consensus wonld be found disturbing. The critics of Delphi argue that it falsely pushes people towards consensus and that there is scope for manipulation, producing distortion of the tree majority feeling. Feedback permits people to fall in line with the majority view whether for feelings of duty or genuine change of mind. This is where the monitoring team have a special responsibility to ensure that minority views are properly made known and discussed. It is partly a 'face-saving' exercise that is required of the monitors, if the exponents of a minority view are identified -- if only b y inference. There was some evidence that what started as a minority view later became a majority view after discussion and reconsideration. The risk of distortion appeared to be only marginal and, in any event, would be infinitely less than would occur at an ordinary meeting involving any decisionreaching. The discipline and time constraints implicit in the Delphi method are seemingly at variance with conventional
bureaucratic practice. However, given a structural framework requiring such a group modus operandi, these proved acceptable. It is mainly when individuals perceive no real need or pressure for speed or decisiveness that time assumes little consequence and inertia creeps in. The group dynamic is powerful and once the ground roles have been clearly set, then the group becomes self-motivated to achieve its declared objective within the limitations imposed. The maintenance of cohesion of the group is of paramount importance to Indonesians and this is perhaps a reflection of the historical function of bureaucracy which, as Theodore Smith points out, was not productivity or change but the maintenance of unity through stability. The Delphi method can it seems bridge the gap between the need for producing change and the maintenance of this stability through consensus agreement. The trial clearly demonstrated that the underlying philosophy of Delphi was consistent with Indonesian custom and practice.
The Future of Delphi in Indonesia It is recognized that this was a restricted trial involving only one kind of Delphi method. However, on the basis of this limited evidence it would certainly seem very desirable to test file method more widely and in different forms in Indonesia. The prognostic kind of Delphi, handling a mass of empirical data, is likely to meet with difficulty in Indonesiabecause of file current widespread mistrust of statistical data and the reluctance of decision-makers to form judgements based largely on this kind of evidence. Modified forms, synthesizing theoretical analysis with empirical data and scientific data wiflI ethical values - more in line with the philosophy of Kant or Singer rather than Locke - - w o u l d seem more appropriate to Indonesian thinking and practice.
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The lack of computing facilities and networks in Indonesia rules out at the moment the 'conference' or computerized Delphi, except in a handful of locations. However, if and when such facilities expand, then the anonymous computer terminal could give a significant boost to the acceptance of this technique.
experience communication blocks between file local and foreign directorate, because neither side is properly attuned to the way of thinking of others. It seems likely that Delphi could be used successfully to help bridge this gap, to the benefit of both parties.
The university environment of this trial will hopefully stimulate thinking With regard to applications, there are about the potential use of the Delphi many complex problems which are method of enquiry in Indonesia. From currently proving extremely difficult to a modest start perhaps it will eventually solve. Difficulties in harnessing and make a significant contribution to the synthesizing expert opinion are a con- improvement of decision-making in this tributory factor and this is where the country. Delphi method could prove an invaluable aid. Small business development policy, transmigration, demographic issues and R e f e r e n c e s the establishment of economic develop1 Linstone, Harold and Turoff, Murray ment priorities are matters that come (editors), The Delphi Method: Techimmediately to mind, which might prove niques and Applications, Addisonamenable to this teclmique. Wesley Publishing Co., 1975. In industry and business, the technique 2 Turoff, Murray, 'The design of a could prove most helpful to corporate policy Delphi', Technological Foreplanning and in particular to such matters casting and Social Change, 1970, 2 (2). as market strategy, technological fore- 3 Geertz, Clifford, The Religion of Java, casting and personnel development Free Press of Glencoe, London, 1960, policy. The paucity of published statistics Chapter 17. in Indonesia presents difficulties to 4 Smith, Theodore M., 'Stimulating perlarge companies and this is something for formance in the Indonesian bureauwhich Delphi can help compensate by cracy: gaps in the administrator's tool harnessing a wide range of opinion or kit, Economic Development and advice. Multinational companies often Cultural Change, July 1975, 23 (4).
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