Deltaic coasts under climate-related catastrophic events – Insights from the Save River delta, Mozambique

Ocean & Coastal Management 116 (2015) 331e340

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Deltaic coasts under climate-related catastrophic events e Insights from the Save River delta, Mozambique
lia Macamo c, Lars-Ove Westerberg a, d, Elídio A. Massuanganhe a, b, *, Ce ~o Bandeira c, Alberto Mavume e, Eunice Ribeiro c Saloma a

Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, S-10691, Stockholm, Sweden Department of Geology, Faculty of Sciences, Eduardo Mondlane University, CP. 257, Maputo, Mozambique Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, Eduardo Mondlane University, CP. 257, Maputo, Mozambique d Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, S-10691, Stockholm, Sweden e Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, Eduardo Mondlane University, CP. 257, Maputo, Mozambique b c

a r t i c l e i n f o

a b s t r a c t

Article history: Received 24 November 2014 Received in revised form 10 July 2015 Accepted 15 August 2015 Available online 29 August 2015

The deltaic coast of the Save River is characterized by mangrove wetland, one of the most important coastal ecosystems in Mozambique. This ecosystem provides direct services to the neighbouring communities and contributes to the productivity of the marine ecosystem. This region has, however, been hit by recurrent catastrophic events that have caused negative impacts on the ecosystem and in people's lives, posing challenges for its management. In this article we use this area as a case study to structure and propose an interactive and integrated approach for coastal zone management under recurrent climate-related catastrophic events. Our results show a need for systematic interaction between the decision makers (at the different levels) and the communities to set up adaptive measures for climaterelated events. Also, we noticed that the presence of the neighbouring communities is a factor to capitalize on the adaptation activities by maximizing their participation as active actors in the process. Therefore, we conclude that a continuous process of adaptation and preparedness to climate-related catastrophic events (focused on both social and ecological systems) constitutes a leverage variable to be used for sustainable management of the coastal zones. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Climate change Adaptation Coastal management Cyclones Sustainability

1. Introduction The deltaic coast of Save River is characterized by mangrove forest growing in the wetland delta of one of the larger rivers in southern Africa. This mangrove ecosystem is rich in biodiversity and a cradle for several species of plants and animals, thus representing one of the most important coastal ecosystems in Mozambique. The wood from mangrove trees is locally used for boat and house building, production of domestic utensils (such as fish traps), traditional ceremonies and for firewood. Fishery along the mangrove channels occupies more than half of the neighboring population and contributes substantially to the food security of the residents (Menomussanga and Matavel, 2011). In the upper deltaic area, the soil is highly productive and attracts people to concentrate

* Corresponding author. Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, S-10691, Stockholm, Sweden. E-mail address: [email protected] (E.A. Massuanganhe). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.08.008 0964-5691/© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

in these areas. At the global scale, the mangrove ecosystem is increasingly recognized for its role as a carbon sink (Breithaupt et al., 2012; Donato et al., 2011; Hopkinson et al., 2012; Kathiresan, 2011). As part of the global carbon cycle, mangrove ecosystems can sequester considerable amounts of carbon per unit area (Donato et al., 2011; Eong, 1993) by a process that involves incorporation of CO2 into mangrove trees via photosynthesis and subsequent transfer to the soil (Kristensen et al., 2008; Suratman, 2008). This process contributes greatly to the reduction of CO2 in the atmosphere, and plays an important role to counterbalance the increasing trend of greenhouse gas emissions (Post et al., 1990). In addition, organic matter, brought by rivers and tides, is trapped in the mangrove wetlands (Kristensen et al., 2008) resulting in thick layers of organic rich sediments, often considered as carbon pools that can counteract the scenarios of an increasing greenhouse effect. Mangrove wetlands and other coastal ecosystems represent a hope for balancing the carbon cycle (Nellemann et al., 2009), but there are challenges to overcome. Coastal ecosystems are subjected

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to anthropogenic and natural pressure with negative results. During the last half century mangrove wetland areas have declined by approximately one third and there are estimations of an ongoing mangrove loss of more than 2% per year (Alongi, 2002; Craft et al., 2009; Valiela et al., 2001). Studies also show that many mangrove wetlands have been replaced by shrimp farms over the last few decades (Pattanaik and Narendra Prasad, 2011; Polidoro et al., 2010; Rahman et al., 2013; Tong et al., 2004), while others have been impacted by climate-related events (Paling et al., 2008; Woodroffe and Grime, 1999), such as tropical cyclones and storms as summarized by Jimenez et al. (1985). Measures to mitigate the degradation of coastal ecosystems are being implemented in many coastal areas. However, an increasing intensity of climate-related catastrophic events, coupled with human pressure, is a limitation for the effectiveness of such implementations (Adger, 1999; Nicholls and Klein, 2005). Moreover, other regions (also the area of concern in this paper) still lack comprehensive assessment on their environmental sensitivity and on the recent modifications associated with high magnitude weather events. Therefore, in this study we show how a system analysis approach can help to identify leverage variables to support management decisions in deltaic coasts under climate-related catastrophic events. This methodology has been successfully used

ttir, 2003; to discuss complex problems (Haraldsson and Olafsd o Hjorth and Bagheri, 2006; Roberts, 2007), but its application as a decision tool in coastal management is still fledgling. Specifically this study aims to: (1) review and summarize the ongoing climaterelated catastrophic events in deltaic coasts, particularly in the Save River delta; (2) structure the interaction between climate-related

catastrophic events and socio-ecological system; (3) identify the leverage variables in the system and discuss their relevance in an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) perspective. 2. The Save River deltaic coast The deltaic coast of Save River is located in southeastern Mozambique (Fig. 1). The coast is rich in biodiversity, largely represented by the mangrove forest that extends along the coast for approximately 100 km. The mangrove in the study area is unevenly distributed owing to local environmental conditions. The mangrove flourishes between the two main distributary channels of the delta (Macau Channel and Matasse Channel) and along tidal channels of the tidal flat. These channels are partially supplied by groundwater seepage and the whole wetland area is under influence of semidiurnal and macro-tidal conditions (in reference to the nearest tide gage in the City of Beira). Within the mangrove area, thick layers of organic-rich sediments form the substratum, often sheltered from the open sea by beach ridges and coastal dunes. In the clay layers there is an abundant and diversified benthic fauna that enriches the ecosystem. On the upper deltaic plain, two rural villages are located, Nova Mambone and Machanga, headquarters of Govuro and Machanga districts, respectively. The villages represent the densely populated areas in the study area. In 2002 the total population of the two villages was estimated to approximately 46,000 inhabitants, i.e. approximately half of the total population in the two districts; 86,300 inhabitants (INE, 1999). The districts are located on both sides of Save River, and occupy an area of approximately 9000 km2.

Fig. 1. (A) Geographic location of the study area and (B) Spot image from 13th April 2011 with the typical false color combination showing the physiographic aspect of Save River delta. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

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Land use in both districts consists of small-scale subsistence agriculture, which is dependent on the climatic and weather conditions. Different crops are cultivated, with an emphasis on cassava and maize for household and commercial purposes. Agriculture is commonly practiced along the floodplain, mainly during the wet season (OctobereApril) when water availability is sufficient for cultivation (Menomussanga and Matavel, 2011). Another important activity in the study area is the fishery along the mangrove channels and in the open sea. Most of the villagers engage in this activity, but at varying scale and using different methods. Some villagers use small boats for fishing and transport from campsites to the village; others use traps along the channels. Fishing is regulated by the fishery administration. There are, for instance, seasonal restrictions regarding the use of nets. Beside fishery, villagers also collect timber from the mangrove area, for domestic use, for building and for firewood. 3. Methodology We undertook regular field visits to Govuro and Machanga districts between January 2011 and June 2015 in what was the first multidisciplinary research expeditions to the deltaic coast of Save River. During the visits we focused on the dynamics of the natural landscape under current climate-related conditions, and correlated with the possible causal processes and impacts on people's lives. This assessment was undertaken under the premise that some of the changes could be related to natural processes exacerbated by extreme events. Additional assessment included the socioeconomic aspects of the study area and data integration.

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resources; (3) the use of these natural resources and (4) the contribution of these resources to the livelihood of the community. For fishermen and warehouse owners, the questionnaire included practical aspects related to the profitability of their activities and possible constraints. All the information from the interviews were qualitatively analyzed and summarized in a table. We also organized a focus group meeting in Nova Mambone, aiming to discuss recurrent climate-related extreme events affecting this area, the way that the villagers cope with the environmental changes and natural disasters, and local perception of the problem. The participants were local leaders, administration representatives, fishery sector representatives, members of the ~o de Jovens e Youth Association of Govuro (AJOAGO e Associaça Amigos de Govuro), and a multidisciplinary team of researchers (Table 1). Prior to the discussion, we brainstormed on aspects of living in sensitive ecosystem and under climate-related catastrophic events. This constituted an important baseline to understand how the communities generally view the problem and what practical adaptation and mitigation measures they take. Also, we were interested in learning from the participants the role of the decision makers in the process, and to explore how decision makers and villagers share the responsibility for management of the coast under critical environmental conditions. During the discussion we fragmented the topic and explored the causal links between key variables of the theme. In this process we made the most of the participants' points of view according to their experience and role in the village. The experts from the multidisciplinary team shared their research experiences on the function of mangrove ecosystems and their carrying capacity. These examples were discussed and compared with the reality of the case study also under debate.

3.1. Interviews and focus group discussions We carried out a semi-structured open interview with 17 key informants and respondents in the village of Nova Mambone. Among the interviewees were traditional leaders, administration representatives, fish traders, fishermen, invertebrate collectors, boat and net owners, and certain influential people in the community. The questionnaire for the interviewed groups was designed with regard to the background level, knowledge and responsibility of each group. Traditional leaders and administration representatives for example, are valuable sources of information related to the long term management principles implemented in the villages. Therefore, the questionnaire for this group included questions relating to: (1) population numbers; (2) main sources of renewable

3.2. Literature review and data compilation The literature review focused first on climate-related impacts (Field, 1995; Nicholls et al., 2007), then to the coastal ecosystems (e.g. Paling et al., 2008; Pannier, 1979; Swiadek, 1997), and lastly on already ongoing climate-related catastrophic events in coastal zones (Adger et al., 2005b). We explored examples of coastal areas that have experienced such events and documented some of the successful examples of adaptation measures, such as those summarized in IPCC reports (e.g. Lavell et al., 2012) and other studies from tropical areas (e.g. Brouwer et al., 2007; Lighthill et al., 1994; Walsh et al., 2012). We also compared examples of impacted coasts

Table 1 Detailed list of participants of the focus group meeting held on 25 January 2011 in Nova Mambone.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 16

Participants

Affiliation

Mr. Ninger Chidoco Muguio Mr. Armando Matique Mr. Ernesto Denguele Mr. Joaquim Mandina
sio Antonio Mr. Gerva
Mucote Mr. Jose
nica Maguiguana Ms. Vero Mr. Mauricio Albino Mr. Albino Vasco Chidala ~o Bandeira Dr. Saloma Ms. Eunice Ribeiro Mr. Elídio Massuanganhe Ms. Veronica Dove Dr. Jared Bosire Dr. Jacob Ochievo Dr. James Kairo Mr. Charles Magori

Traditional Leader of Jenga (Govuro) Traditional Leader of Matique (Govuro) Fishermen Association of Nova Mambone Fishermen Association of Nova Mambone Maritime Administration (Nova Mambone) AJOAGO AJOAGO INGC Fishery Technician Department of Biological Sciences at Eduardo Mondlane University e Maputo Department of Biological Sciences, Eduardo Mondlane University e Maputo Department Geology, Eduardo Mondlane University e Maputo Department Physics, Eduardo Mondlane University e Maputo Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI), Mombasa Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI), Mombasa Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI), Mombasa Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI), Mombasa

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with our case study, reviewing reports from governmental institutions (e.g. INGC, 2009; Menomussanga and Matavel, 2011) and publications related to the severer cyclones and floods that have affected south-central Mozambique (e.g. Jury and Lucio, 2004; Reason and Keibel, 2004). We compiled the data of the cyclones that affected the SouthWest Indian Ocean (SWIO) region between 1952 and 2015. The raw data of each cyclone were downloaded from Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for the South-West Indian Ocean (http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0). The data consisted of a table containing the geographical position and intensity of each cyclone in 6-h intervals, among other parameters. With these data we generated the path of each cyclone, tying the recorded cyclone position points. The paths were smoothed using Bezier Interpolation, and a buffer zone of 25 km on each side of the lines was created. The data were processed in GIS and the paths of the cyclones were overlapped on a digital elevation based map. Among the cyclones that affected this region we visualized and presented the ones that made landfall and crossed the Districts of Govuro or Machanga. 3.3. System analysis For integration of the gathered data, we applied a “system analysis approach” to structure and understand the complex interactions between variables operating in the coastal zone. This approach has been applied in different studies to design sustainable solutions to complex problems (Hjorth and Bagheri, 2006; Prusty et al., 2014). Hence, we structured the problem in a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). As the first step to build the CLD we used the top view approach to identify the pattern and the behavior of the problem. On the other hand we listed all the variables (e.g. cyclones, mangrove, livelihood, erosion, agriculture and population density) in Vensim PLE software platform. The long list of variables was systematically simplified by grouping the most similar ones and excluding the less relevant ones. We established causal links between variables using arrows signed with plus (þ) to show interdependence in the same direction, or minus () to show interdependence in the opposite direction. These links were based on the preliminary results from the interviews, the focus group meeting, and the literature review. After completing the causaleffect links, we identified loops that show feedbacks of the interdependence. 4. Climate-related events and their impacts on deltaic coasts Climate-related extreme events have been reviewed and exemplified in many studies discussing climate change (e.g. Easterling, 2000; Solomon et al., 2007). Lavell et al. (2012) summarized the climate-related extreme events and their impacts on the physical environment. Projections of how the coastal ecosystems will respond to climate-related events are given by Nicholls et al. (2007) but examples of ongoing effects are restricted to extreme sea-level rise, cyclones and floods (Paling et al., 2008; Walsh et al., 2012) which are straightforwardly monitored and measured using remote sensing and field observations. Adger et al. (2005b) observed that two-thirds of the coastal hazards occurring worldwide are related to high magnitude climate-related events. This highlights the urgency of prioritizing the high magnitude climate-related events that are already taking place. Tropical cyclones and storms are the most common climaterelated events that affect the society, given their increasing destructiveness (Emanuel, 2005). Strong winds are largely responsible for causing damage and rapid modification of the landscape. During the cyclone landfall, part of the energy is

dissipated (Tuleya et al., 1984), often resulting in landscape degradation (Gilman et al., 2008; Paling et al., 2008) and casualties. One of the deadliest cyclones ever registered is the Cyclone Nargis which made a landfall in Myanmar in 2008 over the Ayeyarwady River Delta, causing more than 130,000 fatalities and severe destruction (Fritz et al., 2009; Webster, 2008). There are many other examples of cyclones impacting the coastal areas of Indian Ocean, mainly in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa, coasts located along the route of tropical cyclones (Mavume et al., 2009; Reason and Keibel, 2004; Vitart et al., 2003). For Eastern Africa, there are indications of an intensification of storm magnitude. Mavume et al. (2009) observed an increasing frequency of high-magnitude cyclones during the period between 1980 and 2007, whereas there was an opposite trend for the less intense tropical storms. Floods are common processes along deltaic coasts. In fact, delta evolution is associated with high-magnitude fluvial processes bringing sediments to the sea. Today, deltas are highly populated (Seto, 2011) and these natural fluvial processes often affect deltadwelling societies. When high-precipitation events, causing rivers to flood, occur simultaneously with storm surges from the sea, the impacts on river outlets, e.g. deltas, may be particularly severe. The Mississippi Delta and river deltas in southern Asia (e.g. the GangesBrahmaputra Delta) are examples where floods are often associated with both high precipitation in the catchment and cyclones (Brouwer et al., 2007; Falcini et al., 2012). For coastal areas, erosion has been seen as one of the effects of climate-related extreme events such as sea-level rise and storms (Feagin et al., 2005; Hopley, 1974; Leatherman et al., 2000). The erosion rate induced by sea-level rise per se is lower than that of normal processes occurring along shores (Leatherman et al., 2000). Hence, the shoreline retreat associated with climate change is more related to an increase in storm frequency or intensity, than to sealevel rise. The eroded sediments are redistributed by waves, currents and wind, shaping new geomorphologic features. In vegetated areas within the mangrove wetlands, the sediments are trapped by vegetation (D'Alpaos et al., 2007) contributing to vertical sedimentation (Janssen-Stelder et al., 2002). Erosion and sedimentation should be analyzed alongside the relative sea-level rise and sediment compaction in an interactive way (Reed, 1990). 4.1. Climate-related extreme events in the study area 4.1.1. Tropical cyclones and storms The coast of Mozambique is in the track of tropical cyclones and storms (e.g. Goni et al., 2010; Mavume et al., 2009; Roy and Kovord
anyi, 2012). During the last decade, the deltaic coast of Save River has been hit by recurring tropical cyclones and storms affecting the mangrove forest and impacting negatively on the people's life. From 2000 to the present, at least three major cyclones made a landfall directly in this area (Cyclone Eline in 2000, Cyclone Japhet in 2003 and Cyclone Favio in 2007) and in addition tropical storms were registered with considerable frequency. The tropical cyclones and storms were registered mainly during the cyclone season between October and May (Klinman and Reason, 2008; Roy
nyi, 2012). and Kovorda The Cyclone Eline was the most devastating one, not only for Govuro and Machanga districts but for the whole Southern Africa, bringing very strong winds (over 180 km/h), associated with intense rainfall (Reason and Keibel, 2004). Eline made a landfall crossing the districts of Govuro and Machanga on 22 February 2000. Three years later, the Cyclone Japhet formed over southwestern Madagascar, and developed along the Mozambique Channel (Kadomura, 2005; Mavume et al., 2009), making a landfall on 2 March with winds of 160 km/h. On 22 February 2007, the Cyclone Favio, crossed the coastal districts of central and south-

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Fig. 2. (A) Map showing the three major cyclones (Eline-2000, Japhet-2003 and Favio-2007) hitting the Govuro-Machanga districts. (B) Photo showing mangrove defoliated by cyclone (Photo by the author).

central Mozambique (Vilanculos, Govuro and Machanga) with wind speeds of approximately 200 km/h (Klinman and Reason, 2008) (Fig. 2). The strong winds that characterize the cyclones have created damage in different sectors of the coastal area. Mangrove mortality in large areas recorded the physical impact from the recurrent cyclones and storms and the defoliation is more pronounced near the open sea, where cyclones start dissipating their energy. The trees facing the open sea do not show trends of regeneration, either because they were recently impacted or because of their exposure to the high salinity and frequent wave activity as shown in Fig. 2 B. Mangrove can regenerate after a cyclone disturbance (Paling et al., 2008; Swiadek, 1997) but often with a delay depending on the multiple ways that cyclone impacts on the landscape. In other sites, where the primary hydrological conditions did not change, defoliated mangrove shows signs of regeneration. Although part of the energy is dissipated on the mangrove forest, the communities living in coastal zones are affected by the effects of winds that often remain strong enough to destroy infrastructure and crops. Hospitals, schools, public infrastructure and houses are often damaged, and houses for residents are particularly vulnerable since they are built by local material which is not robust enough to face the impacts of high wind speeds. According to the World Bank (2000) 11,253 people were affected by the tropical cyclone Eline and associated flooding in the districts of Govuro and Machanga districts. 4.1.2. Rainfall and floods During the wet season, the Save River delta experiences increasing water level and discharge as a response to the rainfall in the catchment. As a result the water overtops the levees, and inundates the lower areas (floodplain and alluvial terrace) including the two villages. For this type of floods, the Machanga village is the first to be affected given its physiographic setting characterized by topographically low levees. In the records of the recent flooding events, the 2000 flood was the most devastating one (INGC, 2009) and the event coincided with the landfall of the cyclone Eline which

contributed significantly to the total rainfall registered during this period (Reason and Keibel, 2004). Moreover, the cyclone induced a storm surge which constituted one of the main reasons for the fatalities in the communities living shoreward. This type of floods was only confirmed for the Cyclone Eline. One of our interviewees (Mr. Amadeu Simango) reported the death of twelve of his neighbors. Freshwater exchange contributes positively to mangrove growth by reducing the salinity and bringing nutrients into the mangrove habitat (Field, 1995; Jimenez et al., 1985; Snedaker, 1995). In the study area, flourishing mangrove, observed in well drained areas between Macau channel and Matasse channel, can be related to the favorable water exchange. However, during the most severe floods, the water remained for days and weeks and possibly contributed to mangrove dieback. Some studies have shown that the mangrove dieback in stagnated water is partly associated with the decrease in oxygen (Burchett et al., 1984; Skelton and Allaway, 1996). Along the river (upstream), there are gages for water flow and water level, which are used to collect regular data for monitoring purpose. These data, in combination with meteorological data, are used to predict floods and to enable an early warning for the communities. During the flooding events, the population of both villages is affected. Houses are inundated by water, and crops and cattle are submersed. During the February 2000 flood, the road to the main village was blocked, causing logistic problems to rescue affected people. Indirect effects of the flooding events include the degradation of sanitary conditions with an ensuing spreading of diseases such as cholera, which are often reported in this area during and after floods. 4.1.3. Erosion and sedimentation Erosion can be understood as a normal process of earth dynamics responsible for shaping the landscape, but it becomes a problem when it occurs at a high rate and when it interferes with socio-economic and ecological interests. In the study area, the meandering pattern of the river causes erosion in cut banks and accretion in point bars. As a result, terrestrial vegetation and

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Fig. 3. (A) Fluvial erosion in a cut bank of the main channel of Save River threatening the residential area of Nova Mambone; (B) Coastal erosion in the coastal dune along the shoreline (photos by the author).

mangrove trees are progressively removed from the banks, mainly during high-energy flooding events. Along with this process, however, finer sediments (silt and clay) are accreted laterally in point bars creating favorable conditions for mangrove growth and expansion. One of the critical areas for erosion is the residential area in Nova Mambone (Fig. 3A). In this sector, houses, local roads, and important cultural sites are progressively affected as the cut bank is retreating. The coastal dunes that shelter the mangrove areas from the open sea show evidence of erosion (Fig. 3B) associated with the wave activities and northward longshore drift. Coastal erosion is accelerated during storm surges with high-energy waves. As coastal dunes protect the wetland area from the open sea swells, the coastal erosion threatens the mangrove ecosystem in the study area. In some sectors, there are evidences of dune overtopping by sea water with consequent dune sand redistributed to the mangrove wetland, hence contributing negatively to the mangrove habitat. The redistributed sediments not only affect the mangrove trees, but also the benthic fauna that lives in the muddy substratum. This benthic fauna is, in turn, crucial for mangrove development as part of the ecosystem. 4.1.4. Sea-level rise Downscaled data for the coast of Mozambique (INGC, 2009) indicate that sea-level will rise approximately 45 cm until 2100, a scenario mainly attributed to thermal expansion of sea water. For the deltaic coast of Save River, the trend in relative sea-level is unknown owing to the lack of instrumental records. However, the history of Nova Mambone village reflects the relative sea-level rise during the last century; Nova Mambone (i.e. New Mambone) was resettled from Velha Mambone (i.e. Old Mambone), an abandoned village located closer to the shoreline. In addition, villagers report of episodic spring tide flooding in previously not inundated areas. Assessing the impact of sea-level rise in the socio-economic

system is complex. Direct effects are exemplified by villagers reporting salinity problems in arable areas that are frequently flooded by sea water. To this is added the gradual saline intrusion that can affect the groundwater. Partly these problems can be balanced with the possible rainfall increase. Indirect effects may be more long-term shifts in ecological properties, that will lead to a gradual landward shift of both the farming system and the mangrove forest (Semeniuk, 1994). 4.2. Socio-ecological implications in the study area The results of the interviews show the dependence of the local communities on the mangrove ecosystem. The responses provided by the interviewees to the questionnaire are similar and consistent. All the traditional leaders and the administrative representatives were unanimous on the relevance of mangrove as the main source of subsistence for the communities. In Table 2 we summarize the key questions and the common answers from the interviewees. Some of the interviewees pointed out seasonal depletion of life conditions due to climate-related catastrophic events. Most of the villagers are aware of the climate-related catastrophic events but their dependence on the mangrove forest keep attracting them to live by the mangrove forest. Mr Amadeu Simango, proud to be the first motorboat navigator in the delta channels, and one of the survivors of the catastrophic events in the study area, when asked about why not deciding to live in an area safe from cyclones and floods, responded: “Who will take care of my fishnets and boat? I continue living here because I save time to get to the mangrove channels and to the sea and this is my way of living … Sometimes we observe the day and we can predict when a bad weather is coming and we can avoid the worst”. The District Coordinator of INGC in Govuro, Mr. Albino Chidala, described the rescue process during the calamity “I am the INGC Coordinator of Govuro, but the institution also assists the Machanga District …

Table 2 Summary of the questionnaire and answers from the interviewees. Interviewed group

Summary of the questionnaire

Traditional leaders and Administrative representatives

What are the potential renewable resources in Nova Mambone and how are they being used?

Fish warehouse owner Fishermen

Summary of answers

The main potential renewable resources are mangrove and sea products (fish, crabs, timber, and firewood), farm products and livestock. These products constitute the main income for the villagers, and are both used for domestic consumption and provided for sale. What products are you selling and when are they We sell in average, between 2 and 3 tons of dried fish per day. We buy and sell fish available or not? Is the business profitable? throughout the year but the business is less profitable between October and February. What products do you extract from mangrove We collect fish, prawns and also timber for domestic use. Fishing is the main source of and how does that benefit to you? income to sustain our families.

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There are no administrative boundaries when we come to floods and calamity … I remember once, that was on 31st December 2008 when the river increased its level … Machanga Village was the first to be affected. I lead the process of rescuing the affected people using a boat. We could see pots and plates with food floating in the water … That was very sad”. Both quoted responses agree with other results from the interviews and from the focus group discussions, particularly the attractiveness of the mangrove and the mitigation and adaptation options to climate-related catastrophic events. 5. Adaptation and preparedness in coastal zones Within the context of climate change, adaptation and preparedness are terms used with reference to a number of actions taken to minimize and anticipate the impacts of climate change, with the aim to reduce the vulnerability of the socio-ecological systems (Adger et al., 2005a; Adger, 2010; Lavell et al., 2012; Young, 2010). In a general view the adaptation is naturally taken at different levels as part of the survival strategy. However, what makes the adaptation exceptional in this context is its role to respond to the intricate environmental stressors and to the complexity of the socio-ecological systems which vary from place to place. Adaptation and preparedness complement each other in the sense that preparedness is a strategy for applying the adaptive measures with consideration of the expected events (Lavell et al., 2012), in that way preparing a community to face the events. There are differences between the adaptation measures applied in developed coastal areas and in rural coastal areas. In developed areas, measures often include hard engineering to protect the coast (Fatori
c and Chelleri, 2012; Wardekker et al., 2010; Young et al., 2014), while adaptation measures in less developed areas involve cheaper soft engineering (Muir et al., 2014). However, in both cases, the participation of concerned communities is important and may determine the success of the measure. Among the adaptation and preparedness options, migration is one that is under debate (Perch-Nielsen et al., 2008; McLachlan et al., 2007; McLeman and Smit, 2006). McLeman and Smit (2006) review and discuss evidences of climate change-triggered migration registered all over the world during the last century. During the most recent decades, migration is possibly more complex than earlier, because of the increasing population living in ecologically sensitive areas such as the deltaic coasts and in areas prone to climate-related events. 5.1. Adaptation in the study area In Govuro and Machanga districts, the existing adaptive and preparedness measures were formally designed in 2000 when Cyclone Eline affected this region. The INGC (National Institute for Disaster Management), headed the process to rescue people affected by the double calamities of floods and cyclones, accommodating them in safe places (in tents and schools) located on higher ground. Immediately after Eline, two areas (one located 30 km from Nova Mambone and one located 18 km from Machanga village) were identified for the permanent resettlement of the affected villagers. However, although the new areas were considered safe from the climate-related extreme events, the resettled population returned to their previous residences against the will of the authorities. A similar behavior by farmers affected by floods at Limpopo River, southern Mozambique, was observed by Patt and Schroter (2008). In both cases the population argued for better livelihood from fishery in the vicinity of mangrove and from agriculture in the cyclone-affected and flood-prone floodplain. After the return of residents to areas at risk, new ideas emerged,

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in line with the community participation approach, to prevent and adapt to future catastrophic events. A community radio was established to sensitize people about environmental issues and extreme weather events. Aspects regarding the conservation of the ecosystem, including the importance of mangrove to provide ecosystem services and to prevent cyclone impacts, are comprehensively explained using practical and local examples. The earlier warning system was established by the INGC, and the announcements of the warning are made using colored signs; yellow, orange and red reflecting the increasing magnitude of an expected event. By announcing the coming catastrophic events, the communities are recommended to collect their goods and move away from the risky areas. Crops located on areas at risk, can be collected early before the coming of the flood or cyclone. Fishermen and other people frequenting the mangrove areas should abandon this area during the period of awareness. Some of the residents, owning houses in the resettlement area, move temporarily during the warning period depending on the magnitude of the expected event. Motivated by threats and the outcomes from the adaptation and preparedness measures, the involvement of the community in the process is quite evident. The disaster brought about by Cyclone Eline in 2000 and subsequent events is well-remembered by the communities, and are references for awareness that have strongly contributed to the perception of the problem. Moreover, the disasters have contributed to what Paton (2001) called “collective community behavior”, enabling a collaboration to cope with the disaster. Assisted by the INGC and other stakeholders, the community draws strategies for mitigating hazards by using, for example, bells and drums to announce and warn about the approach of a potentially disastrous event, making the message accessible to all residents, also those who do not have radio receivers. Local knowledge and beliefs are important aspects to be integrated in the process of adaptation, even if there is no agreement with the natural science or processes. Part of the most threatening environmental aspects are also interpreted and solved locally. A curious aspect to highlight here is that villagers claim to have stopped ongoing erosion in one of the cut banks of the river just beside the Nova Mambone village through a traditional ceremony. Today the affected area is being accreted by sediments, and even if there is a coincidence with natural processes, the proudness felt by local leaders and the community members should be respected. Respecting the communities' beliefs is not only a way to show consideration for the cultural attraction of the villages but also a way of strengthening the collective responsibility for the environment. Long term successful adaptation involves the integration of ecological and socio economic systems in decision-making (Adger et al., 2005a). In order to maintain sustainability there is a need to consider the carrying capacity of the ecological system. The saving of the mangrove ecosystem in Govuro and Machanga districts represents one of the most valuable long term adaptation measures carried out by the communities. Residents continue to use mangrove wood for building their houses and boats, and they are encouraged to collect dead mangrove for firewood. The communities see the mangrove as a bio-shield that protected them against the cyclones by reducing the impacts of cyclones as explained in the local media and regular meetings in the communities. Another very important aspect for long term adaptation and preparedness is proper prediction of the threatening events and their effects. Although villagers have experienced natural catastrophes, there is still a need to improve the short- and long-term predictions of the environmental changes at the global and local level in order to keep the villagers updated for what to expect.

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6. Deltaic systems viewed as holistic system Based on the examples described above we propose a CLD to describe the typical interaction between the ecological and social systems under climate-related events in deltaic coasts (Fig. 4). In the CLD, the cyclones, floods and sea-level rise represent the common ongoing climate-related events in deltaic coasts. These events affect directly the people's lives (people affected) and the deltaic landscape (landscape degradation). This interdependence is evident from our results in the study area and from other examples reviewed in this article (e.g. Michener et al., 1997; Webster, 2008; Yusof et al., 1991). The central variable for the ecological system in deltaic coast is the mangrove ecosystem that promotes the fishing for local consumption, and both contribute to the welfare. One of the consequences of climate-related catastrophic events is the depletion in fishing as a result of landscape degradation, including the mangrove ecosystem. The perception of these links by the communities raises awareness and motivates the adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce the vulnerability of the landscape and the mangrove ecosystem closing in this way two balancing loops that drive part of the system. In the social system the cyclones, floods and sea-level rise affect directly the communities causing death and loss. Before, during and after the events there is an awareness from the communities and decision makers to cope with the event. The awareness is the variable motivating mitigation and adaptation measures. In many examples, the mitigation and adaptation measures result positively in a reduction of people affected and deaths and losses (Adger et al., 2005b; Lavell et al., 2012; Nicholls and Lowe, 2004), thus closing one of the balancing loops that drive the social system. The presence of population in deltaic coast areas (population density) will lead to more stress on the landscape, since the population will compete to extract the resources for their subsistence. The landscape degradation will affect the mangrove ecosystem and then welfare which will decisively close a loop controlling the

population density. This loop may find many practical examples when cumulatively the communities realize that the livelihood in certain areas is not sustainable and then migrate to other areas. On the other hand, the high population density causes high probability of people affected that may cause deaths. The mitigation and adaptation measures undertaken by the communities and decision makers aim to prevent severe effects on both people and the mangrove ecosystem. For example, in some regions the communities participate in programs of mangrove replanting that in some circumstances enable rapid recuperation of mangrove ecosystem after disturbance (Barbier, 2008; Datta et al., 2012; Kamali and Hashim, 2011). Therefore, we find the mitigation and adaptation measures as a tangible leverage variable in the system as it can control two loops; one in the ecological system and another one in the social system. This variable is represented by the number of initiatives taken at different levels by many coastal societies. In most of the examples, the mitigation and adaptation consist of continuous activities even during periods between climate-related severe events. 7. Summary and conclusions In this study we have summarized the interaction of the social and ecological systems in deltaic coasts influenced by climaterelated catastrophic events. Cyclones and floods are recurrent events on deltaic coasts and they cause negative impacts to the coastal ecosystems and communities. The mangrove ecosystems that often characterize deltaic wetlands are particularly sensitive to these events, mainly in scenarios of recurrent cyclones and floods given the chain of related processes. Evidences of such processes are recorded on the deltaic landscapes with defoliation of mangrove trees, and erosion and sedimentation within the mangrove habitat. The human influence in this environment plays a critical role. On the one hand, humans act as an additional stressor to the ecosystem, mainly in densely populated areas where the pressure on the landscape is visible. On the other hand, communities play important role as actors in the adaptation and mitigation processes, thus reducing the vulnerability of both the coastal ecosystem and the communities themselves. As evidenced in our conceptual model the mitigation and adaptation measures is a leverage variable that plays a role to balance a socio-ecological system under stress. Therefore, we argue that the strengthening of the communities as actors designing adaptation measures is one of the best ways of dealing with the environmental changes under scenarios of climate-related catastrophic events. The use of local knowledge and its integration into the structured adaptation and preparedness methods in the study area constitute major lessons to be learned and adopted to other deltaic coasts under climate-related catastrophic events. The local communities showed commitment to the long term sustainable management of the natural resources motivated by the carrying capacity of the coastal ecosystem that they rely on for their subsistence. Moreover, the communities evidenced that the migration to safe place may be the last choice as an adaptation measure to cope with the climate-related catastrophic events. Adapting gradually to the changing scenarios and considering the natural ecosystem appear to be the more sustainable strategy. Acknowledgments

Fig. 4. Causal loop diagram showing the interaction between climate-related catastrophic events and the social and environmental components of the deltaic coast.

This research was supported by Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association (WIOMSA), under the project “Resilience and adaptation of Mangrove in the WIO region to the impacts of climate change” at the Department of Biological Sciences, Eduardo

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Mondlane University (Mozambique) and Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (Kenya). The research was also supported by Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) under the cooperation program between Eduardo Mondlane University and Stockholm University (SIDA Decision No. 2011-002102). Acknowledgements are extensive to the local residents and authorities of Nova Mambone, especially to those who accepted to be interviewed. We thank the AJOAGO for the collaboration and fruitful discussions in this research. References Adger, N.,W., Arnell, N.W., Tompkins, E.L., 2005a. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Glob. Environ. Change 15, 77e86. Adger, W.N., 1999. Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam. World Dev. 27, 249e269. Adger, W.N., 2010. Social Capital, Collective Action, and Adaptation to Climate Change. Der klimawandel. Springer, pp. 327e345. Adger, W.N., Hughes, T.P., Folke, C., Carpenter, S.R., Rockstrom, J., 2005b. Socialecological resilience to coastal disasters. Science 309, 1036e1039. Alongi, D.M., 2002. Present state and future of the world's mangrove forests. Environ. Conserv. 29, 331e349. Barbier, E.B., 2008. In the wake of tsunami: lessons learned from the household decision to replant mangroves in Thailand. Resour. Energy Econ. 30, 229e249. Breithaupt, J.L., Smoak, J.M., Smith, T.J., Sanders, C.J., Hoare, A., 2012. Organic carbon burial rates in mangrove sediments: strengthening the global budget. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 26. Brouwer, R., Akter, S., Brander, L., Haque, E., 2007. Socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk: a case study of climate change and flooding in Bangladesh. Risk Anal. 27, 313e326. Burchett, M.D., Field, C.D., Pulkownik, A., 1984. Salinity, growth and root respiration in the grey mangrove, Avicennia marina. Physiol. Plant. 60, 113e118. Craft, C., Clough, J., Ehman, J., Joye, S., Park, R., Pennings, S., Guo, H., Machmuller, M., 2009. Forecasting the effects of accelerated sea-level rise on tidal marsh ecosystem services. Front. Ecol. Environ. 7, 73e78. D'Alpaos, A., Lanzoni, S., Marani, M., Rinaldo, A., 2007. Landscape evolution in tidal embayments: modeling the interplay of erosion, sedimentation, and vegetation dynamics. J. Geophys. Res. 112, F01008. Datta, D., Chattopadhyay, R.N., Guha, P., 2012. Community based mangrove management: a review on status and sustainability. J. Environ. Manage. 107, 84e95. Donato, D.C., Kauffman, J.B., Murdiyarso, D., Kurnianto, S., Stidham, M., Kanninen, M., 2011. Mangroves among the most carbon-rich forests in the tropics. Nat. Geosci. 4, 293e297. Easterling, D.R., 2000. Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289, 2068e2074. Emanuel, K., 2005. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436, 686e688. Eong, O.J., 1993. Mangroves - a carbon source and sink. Chemosphere 27, 1097e1107. Falcini, F., Khan, N.S., Macelloni, L., Horton, B.P., Lutken, C.B., McKee, K.L., Santoleri, R., Colella, S., Li, C., Volpe, G., D/'Emidio, M., Salusti, A., Jerolmack, D.J., 2012. Linking the historic 2011 Mississippi river flood to coastal wetland sedimentation. Nat. Geosci. 5, 803e807. Fatori
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