Demand Forecasting Techniques vis-à-vis Demand Forecast for Lead

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 11 (2015) 418 – 424

*OREDO&KDOOHQJHV3ROLF\)UDPHZRUN 6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQWIRU0LQLQJRI 0LQHUDODQG)RVVLO(QHUJ\5HVRXUFHV*&3) 

'HPDQG)RUHFDVWLQJ7HFKQLTXHVYLVjYLV'HPDQG)RUHFDVW IRU/HDG 6.6KDUPD *.6KDUPD Indian Bureau of Mines, Nagpur, 440001, India

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© 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license ‹7KH$XWKRUV3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU%9 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). 3HHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIRUJDQL]LQJFRPPLWWHHRIWKH*OREDO&KDOOHQJHV3ROLF\)UDPHZRUN  Peer-review under responsibility of organizing committee of the Global Challenges, Policy Framework & 6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQWIRU0LQLQJRI0LQHUDODQG)RVVLO(QHUJ\5HVRXUFHV Sustainable Development for Mining of Mineral and Fossil Energy Resources. Keywords: 'RPHVWLFGHPDQGIRUHFDVW/HDG0HWDO

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

 1HFHVVLW\IRUGHPDQGIRUHFDVWLQJLQPLQHUDOVHFWRU 7KHVWDLQOHVVVWHHOZKLFKLVIRXQGLQNLWFKHQLQWKHIRUPRIXWHQVLOVFRPSULVHVRIFKURPLWHDQGLURQ D /HDG DFLG EDWWHU\ ZKLFK LV IRXQG LQ DOPRVW HYHU\ YHKLFOH  LQYHUWHUV FRPSULVHV RI OHDG PHWDO /LNHZLVHWKHUHDUHVRPDQ\SURGXFWVZKLFKZHDUHXVLQJLQRXUGD\WRGD\OLIHFRQWDLQVPLQHUDOVZKLFK KDYHEHHQPLQHGDQGSURFHVVHG

1878-5220 © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of organizing committee of the Global Challenges, Policy Framework & Sustainable Development for Mining of Mineral and Fossil Energy Resources. doi:10.1016/j.proeps.2015.06.041

S.K. Sharma & G.K. Sharma / Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 11 (2015) 418 – 424

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ased on time series data - statistical method )RXUVWDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVKDYHEHHQDGRSWHGQDPHO\L $ULWKPHWLF$YHUDJLQJLL 0RYLQJ$YHUDJH LLL 7UHQG$QDO\VLVDQGLY &RPSRXQGHG$QQXDO*URZWK5DWH&$*5 WRHVWLPDWHWKHIXWXUH GHPDQG 3.1.1. Arithmetic mean of growth rate ,QWKLVPHWKRGWKH\HDURQ\HDUJURZWKLQDSSDUHQWFRQVXPSWLRQRUUHSRUWHGFRQVXPSWLRQRI FRPPRGLW\DUHILUVWFDOFXODWHGIURPEDVH\HDUWRFXUUHQW\HDUDQGVXEVHTXHQWO\WKHVLPSOHDULWKPHWLF DYHUDJHRIWKHVHDUHFDOFXODWHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHRYHUDOOJURZWKUDWH ૚

$ULWKPHWLFPHDQ ࢔ ሺ࢞૚ ൅ ࢞૛ ൅ ǥ ǥ ǥ ǥ ǥ ൅ ࢞૜ ሻ





 

 :KHUHQ ILQDO\HDU±EDVH\HDU  [L DQQXDOFRQVXPSWLRQFKDQJHV*URZWK)DOO FRPSDUHGZLWKWKHSUHYLRXV\HDU  

3.1.2. Moving average &DOFXODWLQJWKHDYHUDJHJURZWKUDWHE\WKLVPHWKRGLVVOLJKWO\PRUHVRSKLVWLFDWHGDVWKHYDULDWLRQV LQ\HDURQ\HDUFRQVXPSWLRQRIFRPPRGLW\GXHWRXQIRUHVHHQFLUFXPVWDQFHVDUHQXOOLILHG7KHPRYLQJ DYHUDJHLVFDOFXODWHGE\VHULHVRIDYHUDJHVRIGLIIHUHQWVXEVHWVRIWKHIXOOGDWDVHWRUVLPSO\E\IRUPLQJ RYHUODSSLQJ EORFNV RI WZR RU PRUH FRQVHFXWLYH \HDUV DQG WKHQ WKH DYHUDJH DQQXDO JURZWK UDWH RI PRYLQJDYHUDJHLVFRPSXWHG,WLVDOVRFDOOHGDPRYLQJPHDQ00 RUUROOLQJPHDQ50 

419

420

S.K. Sharma & G.K. Sharma / Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 11 (2015) 418 – 424

3.1.3. Trend analysis 7KHEDVLFWHQGHQF\RIWKHFRQVXPSWLRQLVWRJURZRUGHFOLQHE\WKH\HDUZKLFKLVXVXDOO\UHIHUUHGWR DV ³VHFXODU PRYHPHQW´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ompounded annual growth rate (CAGR) &RPSRXQG DQQXDO JURZWK UDWH&$*5  LV D VSHFLILF WHUP IRU WKHJHRPHWULF SURJUHVVLRQUDWLR WKDW SURYLGHVDFRQVWDQWJURZWKUDWHRYHUWKHWLPHSHULRG&$*5GDPSHQVWKHHIIHFWRIYRODWLOLW\RISHULRGLF FKDQJHV WKDW FDQ UHQGHU DULWKPHWLF PHDQV LUUHOHYDQW,W LV SDUWLFXODUO\ XVHIXOWR FRPSDUH JURZWKUDWHV IURPGLIIHUHQWGDWDVHWVVXFKDVFRQVXPSWLRQJURZWKRIFRPPRGLW\   &$*5 >^&)&,`A^Q `@   :KHUH&) &RQVXPSWLRQRIILQDO\HDU  &, &RQVXPSWLRQRIEDVH\HDU  Q &XUUHQW\HDU±EDVH\HDU 3.2. Based on end-use industry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ased on econometric model ,QWKLVDSSURDFKWKHPRGHOVRIWKHYDULDEOHVSUHSDUHGIRURWKHUSXUSRVHVDUHPDGHXVHRILQGLUHFWO\ UHODWLQJ WKHP WR PLQHUDO FRQVXPSWLRQ ,Q FDVH RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLS RI WKH FRQVXPSWLRQ ZLWK D PDFURHFRQRPLFYDULDEOHWKHHTXDWLRQLVDOLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQWDNLQJRQHYDULDEOHDWDWLPHDQGLWFRQWDLQV D GLVWXUEDQFH WHUP ³(7´ ZKLFK DFFRXQWV IRU LQIOXHQFH RI DOO RWKHU YDULDEOH ,Q FDVH RI HFRQRPHWULF PRGHOLQJWKH LGHD LV WRXVH D PXOWLSOHUHJUHVVLRQHTXDWLRQ LQYROYLQJ DV PDQ\ HFRQRPLF YDULDEOHV DV SRVVLEOHVRWKDWWKHGLVWXUEDQFHWHUPWHQGVWREHH[WUHPHO\LQVLJQLILFDQW 1RZOHWXVVXSSRVHWKHUHDUHILYHYDULDEOHVZKLFKFRQFXUUHQWO\LQIOXHQFHWKHGHPDQGRIWKHPLQHUDO '7 DWDSDUWLFXODUSRLQWRIWLPH³7´DQGWKHVHYDULDEOHVDUHDVIROORZV   '7 $$87$97$:7$;7(7   :KHUH87 ,QFRPHRIFRQVXPHUV   97 3ULFHRIWKHPLQHUDO   :7 3ULFHRIWKHUHODWHGFRPPRGLW\   ;7 *URVVQDWLRQDOSURGXFW 3.4. Contingency forecast 7KLVLVDOVRNQRZQDVMXGJPHQWDOPHWKRGRIDQDO\VLV$OOWKHPHWKRGVRIGHPDQGIRUHFDVWLQJDUH HVVHQWLDOO\ EDVHG RQ WKH SDVW WUHQGV 7KH FRQWLQJHQF\ IRUHFDVWEHFRPH XVHIXO IRU SURYLGLQJ URRP IRU VRPHXQH[SHFWHGGHYHORSPHQWVZKLFKDUHWRWDOO\XQUHODWHGWRWKHSDVWWUHQGVDQGZKLFKPD\FDXVHWKH

S.K. Sharma & G.K. Sharma / Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 11 (2015) 418 – 424

IXWXUHGHPDQGWRGHYLDWHIURPDQRWKHUZLVHH[SHFWHGWUHQGV6XFKDFRQWLQJHQF\PD\EHHQJHQGHUHG E\IDFWRUVOLNHVXGGHQWHFKQRORJLFDOEUHDNWKURXJKVVXEVWLWXWLRQVFKDQJHLQJRYHUQPHQWSROLFLHVHWF ,QWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\WKHIXWXUHGHPDQGDVSURMHFWHGRQWKHEDVLVRIDERYHPHQWLRQHGPHWKRGVDUH WDNHQDVWKHVWDUWLQJSRLQWVDQGWKHQH[SHUWVRSLQLRQERUQRXWRIWKHLULQWXLWLYHMXGJPHQWLVSRROHGWR PDNHDQDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKWKHIXWXUHGHPDQGVDUHOLNHO\WRGHYLDWHIURPWKDWRIVWDUWLQJ SRLQW 3.5. Intensity of used methods 7KHUDWLRRIFRQVXPSWLRQWRDPDMRURIQDWLRQDOLQFRPHVXFKDV*URVV1DWLRQDO3URGXFW*13 RU *URVV'RPHVWLF3URGXFW*'3 LVGHILQHGDV³,QWHQVLW\RI8VH,8 ´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emand forecast based on CAGR of apparent consumption and GDP growth 7KHDSSDUHQWFRQVXPSWLRQRIOHDGLVJURZLQJDW&$*5EDVHGRQJURZWKIURPWR   DQG LV XWLOLVHG IRU SURMHFWLQJ IXWXUH GHPDQG EH\RQG  WR  7KH DSSDUHQW FRQVXPSWLRQRIOHDGGXULQJKDVEHHQHVWLPDWHGDWWKRXVDQGWRQQHVZKLFKLVFRQVLGHUHG DVDEDVH\HDUIRUWKHSURMHFWLRQRIWKHGHPDQG 7KH 3ODQQLQJ &RPPLVVLRQ KDV DQQRXQFHG DQ DYHUDJH *'3 JURZWK WDUJHW RI  IRU WKH 7ZHOIWK )LYH
 




$W&$*5

*'3*URZWK#



























4.2. Based on time series data on demand/apparent consumption- Statistical method 4.2.1. Arithmetic averaging of growth rate  ,QWKLVPHWKRGWKHJURZWKUDWHZRUNHGRXWWREH$FFRUGLQJO\WKHIXWXUHGHPDQGRI OHDG ZRUNHG RXW WR EH  WKRXVDQG WRQQHV  WKRXVDQG WRQQHV DQG  WKRXVDQG WRQQHV IRU WKH \HDUVDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\ 4.2.2. Moving average 7KH DYHUDJH DQQXDO JURZWK UDWH FDOFXODWHG E\ WKLV PHWKRG ZRUNV RXW WR EH  DQG WKH IXWXUH GHPDQGRIOHDGZRUNVRXWWREHWKRXVDQGWRQQHVWKRXVDQGWRQQHVDQGWKRXVDQGWRQQHV E\DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\

421

422

S.K. Sharma & G.K. Sharma / Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 11 (2015) 418 – 424

4.2.3. Trend analysis 7KH PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHO WKDW LV RSWLPDOO\ ILW IRU WKH DSSDUHQW FRQVXPSWLRQ LQ VWUDLJKW OLQH LV GHSLFWHGIURPWKHHTXDWLRQDVIROORZV  < ;:KHUH< WKHRUGLQDWHRUFRPSXWHGDQQXDOFRQVXPSWLRQRIWUHQG; WLPHLQ\HDU %DVHG RQ WUHQG DQDO\VLV RI FRQVXPSWLRQ RU UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV WKH IXWXUH GHPDQG RI OHDG LV HVWLPDWHGDWWKRXVDQGWRQQHVWKRXVDQGWRQQHVDQGWKRXVDQGWRQQHVIRUWKH\HDUV DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\ 4.3. Demand forecast on the basis of ratio of production of storage batteries and production of vehicles 4.3.1. Present demand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uture demand  7KH HVWLPDWLRQ RI FRQVXPSWLRQ RI OHDG LQ WKH EDWWHULHV LQ VHJPHQWHG YHKLFOHV LV PDGH E\ FRQVLGHULQJJURZWKRIFRQFHUQHGFODVVRIYHKLFOHVDQGWKHVDPHLVJLYHQLQ7DEOH     7DEOH3URMHFWHG/HDG&RQVXPSWLRQLQYDULRXV&ODVVHVRI9HKLFOHV,QWRQQHV  +(00#NJ &RPPHUFLDO9HKLFOH 3DVVHQJHU9HKLFOHV #NJ #NJ
7KUHH:KHHOHUV #NJ

7ZR:KHHOHUV# NJ

4W\RI/HDG

4W\RI/HDG

4W\RI/HDG

4W\RI/HDG

4W\RI/HDG

















































 7KHWRWDOGHPDQGRIOHDGIRUEDWWHU\LQGXVWU\LVFDOFXODWHGE\DGGLQJWKHGHPDQGIRUHDFKVHJPHQW RI YHKLFOHV IRU SDUWLFXODU \HDU  7KH IXWXUH GHPDQG RI OHDG E\  LV IRUHFDVWHG DW DERXW  WKRXVDQGWRQQHVZKLFKZLOOFOLPEWRDOHYHORIWKRXVDQGWRQQHVLQDQGWKRXVDQG WRQQHVLQUHVSHFWLYHO\LQFOXGLQJRWKHULQGXVWULHVDOVR

423

S.K. Sharma & G.K. Sharma / Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 11 (2015) 418 – 424

&RPSDULVRQRIIXWXUHGHPDQGIRUHFDVWVIRUOHDG ,WLVVHHQIURPWKHSUHFHGLQJSDUDJUDSKVWKDWWKHUHLVDGLIIHUHQFHLQWKHGHPDQGIRUHFDVWPDGHRQ WKH EDVLV RI &$*5 RI DSSDUHQW FRQVXPSWLRQ *'3 JURZWK UDWH RI  WKH UDWLR RI SURGXFWLRQ RI EDWWHULHV  SURGXFWLRQ RI YHKLFOHV DQG VWDWLVWLFDO PHWKRGV QDPHO\ $ULWKPHWLF $YHUDJH 0RYLQJ $YHUDJHDQG7UHQG/LQH$QDO\VLV7KHGHPDQGIRUHFDVWPDGHE\DOOWKHDERYHPHWKRGVLVJLYHQEHORZ LQ7DEOH 7DEOH&RPSDUDWLYH6WDWHPHQWRI7RWDO)XWXUH'HPDQGRI/HDG,QWKRXVDQGWRQQHV  6U1R 0HWKRGV 























































'HPDQG%DVHGRQ&$*5RI$SSDUHQW&RQVXPSWLRQ#



'HPDQGEDVHGRQ*'3*URZWK5DWH#



'HPDQGEDVHGRQ*'3JURZWKUDWH#DVSHUWKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\)XQG



'HPDQGEDVHGRQ$ULWKPHWLF$YHUDJH0HWKRG





'HPDQGEDVHGRQ0RYLQJ$YHUDJH0HWKRG





'HPDQGEDVHGRQ7UHQG/LQH0HWKRG





'HPDQG %DVHG RQ WKH %DVLV RI 5DWLR RI /HDG $FLG %DWWHU\ 3URGXFWLRQDQG3URGXFWLRQRI9HKLFOHV



'HPDQGHVWLPDWHGDVSHUDSSDUHQWFRQVXPSWLRQ

7LPHVHULHVGDWDRIGHPDQGDSSDUHQWFRQVXPSWLRQ±6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRG

'HPDQG%DVHGRQ3URGXFWLRQRI/$%V 

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

6HHOH\:0XGG(FRQRPLFVRIWKHPLQHUDOLQGXVWU\$PHULFDQ,QVWLWXWHRI0LQLQJ0HWDOOXUJLFDO 3HWUROHXP(QJLQHHUV ,QF1HZ\RUN ..&KDWWHUMHH$Q,QWURGXFWLRQWR0LQHUDO(FRQRPLFV:LOOH\(DVWHUQ/WG 0DUNHW6XUYH\RQ/HDG =LQF-XQH,QGLDQ%XUHDXRI0LQHV -3&-RLQW3ODQW&RPPLWWHH %XOOHWLQ +=/$QQXDO5HSRUWWR ,QGLDQ0LQHUDO
        :HEVLWHV  KWWSVFULSWVSURGXFWLRQWUHQGDVS[6RFLHW\RI,QGLDQ$XWRPRELOHPDQXIDFWXUHUV

424

    

S.K. Sharma & G.K. Sharma / Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 11 (2015) 418 – 424

KWWSZZZK]OLQGLDFRP+LQGXVWDQ=LQF/LPLWHG KWWSZZZLO]VJRUJ,QWHUQDWLRQDO/HDG =LQF6WXG\*URXS KWWSEDWWHU\FRXQFLORUJ"SDJH OHDGBDFLGBEDWWHULHV KWWSZZZLO]GDFRP,QGLD/HDG =LQF'HYHORSPHQW$VVRFLDWLRQ KWWSVWHHOJRYLQ

 Note: The analytical views/ comments expressed in the paper are solely of the Authors and not related to Indian Bureau of Mines