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Depletion and Shortages
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Depletion and Shortages The subject area Depletion and Shortages deals with scarcity of natural resources. The scarcity may be a lack of an energy source itself (e.g., wood, oil), or of a material used in the manufacture of an energy source (e.g., silicon for PV power). This section also deals with reactions to actual or anticipated shortages of energy (e.g., various recent efforts to develop alternative energy because of anticipated future shortages of fossil fuels). The issue of energy shortages often has had major effects on history. In World War II, a momentous—and ultimately fateful—strategic decision made by Nazi Germany has been associated with concerns about energy supply. This was the Wehrmacht’s movement to the East in World War II, culminating with the invasion of Russia in June 1941. It was motivated in large part by the desire to gain access to foreign oil fields (as in Romania) in order to compensate for Germany’s own inadequate energy resources. The shortage that likely would be most familiar to the general public is a relatively recent occurrence, namely the socalled energy crisis of 1973–74. Set off by an Arab oil embargo in the wake of the Yom Kippur war, it was marked in the U.S. by a quadrupling of the price of crude oil, gas rationing, a national mandate to reduce speed limits, and long lines of motorists waiting (often in vain) at gas stations with the hope of refueling. This was followed by two similar shortages that also resulted from events in the Middle East, one being the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the other the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Both of these also resulted in a sharp spike in oil prices. However, the original crisis of 1973–74 remains the most significant because for the first time people became aware of the tenuous nature of energy supply and the important, far-reaching effects that a shortage of supply could bring about. In today’s world it is generally accepted that energy supply is both fragile in the short term and finite over the long term. This understanding is reflected in the widespread, and ever-increasing, efforts to lessen dependence on fossil fuels through the use of energy sources that are less susceptible to price shocks and supply constraints; e.g., solar, wind, or geothermal energy.
Handbook of Energy, Volume II. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-417013-1.00041-8 © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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CHRONOLOGY ca. 2000 BC Early example of deforestation The Indus Valley society, one of the leading sites of early civilization, declines and eventually collapses. Cited as a leading cause of this is the large-scale removal of forests. 400s BC Solar energy developed in reaction to wood shortage Spurred in part by wood fuel scarcity, classical Greek architecture develops widespread use of passive solar energy. Socrates states the basic principles of this practice: homes are oriented toward the south, and eaves are added to provide shade for south windows in summer. Entire cities are designed to allow equitable access to winter sunlight. ca. 380 BC Parts of Greece devoid of trees Many parts of Greece are completely bare of trees due to their harvest for fuel, smelting operations, and shipbuilding. The philosopher Plato laments, “The mere skeleton of the land remains.” A tax is then placed on wood for home heating and cooking, and the supply of wood is regulated by public authorities in some localities. mid-100s BC Decline in forest cover occurs in Rome A decline in forest cover occurs in the environs of Rome because of demand for wood for industrial fuel, home and ship construction, central heating, and lavish baths. 1230 Importing of Scandinavian timber to England The first importing of Scandinavian timber is recorded in England. This indicates that wood as a domestic fuel supply was already experiencing shortages, due to demand for heating and building and also for industrial uses such as iron-working, brewing, dyeing, and glassmaking. early 1300s Wood shortages in England Serious wood shortages begin to be reported in England and elsewhere in Western Europe. These will become gradually more acute over the next 300 years, as forest are cleared for fuel and timber. 1560 Swedish Baltic Empire exploits wood shortages elsewhere The Swedish Baltic Empire dominates Northern Europe from this time until 1721, based in part on its rise as a producer and exporter of metals, while England’s and mid-Europe’s metal production declines due to a drop in charcoal production caused by deforestation and wood scarcity. 1615 Wood prohibited for glassmaking in England A royal proclamation in Britain prohibits the use of wood for glassmaking. Wood is in high demand for the crucial shipbuilding industry, so glassmaking furnaces are changed to burn coal instead. 1630 England’s depletion of wood supply England experiences a widespread shortage of firewood, especially in areas with ironworks since large amounts of fuel are required for smelting iron. This depletion of the wood supply leads to a shift to coal as the chief energy source for smelting and other industrial purposes. As a result, England becomes the first country to develop a full-scale coal industry. 1784 Franklin urges the substitution of coal for wood Benjamin Franklin notes that the substitution of coal for wood as a fuel has helped to preserve England’s remaining forests, and he urges France and Germany to do the same.
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1798 Malthus on population and resources Thomas Robert Malthus publishes An Essay on the Principle of Population, arguing that poverty and famine are inevitable because the world’s population is bound to grow at a faster rate than the food supply. This leads to many subsequent analyses of the relationship between population and available resources, in particular Darwin’s ideas about natural selection. 1850s Whaling industry in steep decline The New England whaling industry is in steep decline because of massive depletion of whale stocks and the rise of petroleum and other fuels that are used in place of whale oil. 1860 Research on solar energy to replace coal Concerned about France’s dependence on coal, solar pioneer Auguste Mouchot begins research on the direct conversion of the Sun’s energy into mechanical power. He goes on to develop a solar-powered steam engine. 1865 Jevons warns Britain about coal dependence The British economist W. Stanley Jevons publishes The Coal Question, in which he argues that coal is essential for the industry of Britain and that this resource will one day be exhausted, causing the collapse of British society. The prediction proves wrong because Jevons did not foresee improvements in mining technology and the use of oil as a substitute for coal. 1865 Jevons’ paradox formulated W. Stanley Jevons formulates Jevons’ paradox, a concept now employed by modern scholars. It states that increased efficiency in the use of a natural resource, such as coal, will actually result in greater consumption, not less. This is because improvement in efficiency will lead to higher demand; e.g., U.S. gas consumption increased after fuel-efficient cars were introduced in the 1970s. 1874 Jules Verne foresees coal depletion Jules Verne publishes The Mysterious Island, set during the U.S. Civil War. The book’s main characters speculate on how the depletion of coal will affect the future. Cyrus Harding, one of the characters, asserts his belief that one day hydrogen and oxygen, which together form water, will be used either alone or together as an inexhaustible source of heat and light. 1900 Variety of fuels for U.S. automobiles At the dawn of the automotive era, the widespread availability of ethyl alcohol and concerns about access to oil reserves influence manufacturers to produce engine designs that can be adapted to both fuels. Henry’s Ford’s first vehicles are designed to run on multiple fuels, including alcohol. 1918 U.S. production of anthracite coal peaks U.S. production of anthracite coal peaks at 100 million tons per year. Located primarily in the state of Pennsylvania, anthracite is a relatively clean burning form of coal that enjoys extensive use in home heating. By 2000 production drops to about 4 million tons, due largely to the depletion of the resource base. 1918 Depletion allowance for fossil fuels A U.S. Revenue Act restores the depletion allowance for minerals and fossil fuels, reducing taxes for owners of such resources to compensate for the exhaustion of an irreplaceable capital asset. Critics argue
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that the allowance is a huge subsidy because these resources are valuable enough to justify high levels of investment without tax incentives. 1920 USGS estimates domestic oil supply David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates the amount of total oil remaining in the United States at 6.7 billion barrels. This estimate includes both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered; White concedes that it might well be in error by as much as 25%. 1921 Russian oil production drops due to revolution Russian oil production and exports drop sharply as a result of the Russian revolution in 1917, and the nationalization of the oil fields by the Communists in 1920. Production strengthens by the mid-1920s due to an infusion of foreign investment from the West. 1922 Twenty years of oil reserves predicted The U.S. Geological Survey predicts that the United States only has a sufficient domestic oil supply to last 20 years. The report stimulates research into how engines can be made more efficient, including research into antiknock additives such as ethyl alcohol and lead. 1923 Early call for renewable hydrogen British-born biologist John Burdon Sanderson Haldane, foreseeing the exhaustion of coal for power generation in Britain, proposes a network of hydrogen-generating windmills. This is one of the earliest known proposals for a renewable energy system. 1926 Six remaining years of oil predicted The Federal Oil Conservation Board of the United States estimates that the nation has only enough oil to last for another six years. 1931 Theory of optimal depletion of resources Harold Hotelling of the United States describes the economic theory of the optimal depletion of nonrenewable resources, which is still the dominant paradigm today in economics. 1941 Nazi Germany seeks Soviet oil Nazi Germany surprisingly invades the Soviet Union, after having formed a nonaggression pact with the Soviets just two years earlier. The primary military objective of this operation is to capture the valuable Caucasus oil fields, since Germany’s own supply is relatively meager and dependent on synthetic oil. 1941 Japan concludes that it will run out of oil Having been denied access to oil supplies from the United States and the Dutch East Indies, the Japanese government concludes that if existing conditions continue they will run out of oil within a short time. This is cited by historians as an important motivation for Japan’s decision to launch a surprise attack on the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7th, and to invade the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia) on Dec. 17th. 1942 Biogas as substitute fuel in WWII During World War II, fuel-starved Germans build anaerobic digesters to generate biogas as the power source for farm machinery. The gas is compressed at 3,000 psi and charged into pressurized steel “Äúbottles” that contain the equivalent of 10 gallons of gasoline.
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1945 End of wartime gasoline rationing The end of gasoline rationing in the United States is announced after the surrender of Japan. This measure had been in place since 1942. In Britain, fuel rationing will not end until 1950. 1947 Passive solar popular in energy-scarce United States Passive solar buildings in the United States are in such demand as a result of scarce energy during World War II that the Libbey–Owens– Ford Glass Company publishes a book entitled Your Solar House, profiling the nation’s leading solar architects.
Gas rationing Gasoline rationing during World War II made this gas station a busy stop, since it was the last place where motorists could fill up before entering a gas-rationed area. Most U.S. drivers got an ‘A’ ration sticker for a limited amount of gas (4 gallons per week; later 3). Those whose driving was necessary for their occupation got more, but only people whose work was considered essential to the war effort (and politicians) were entitled to an unlimited amount. (Ann Rosener/U.S. Office of War Information)
1954 Regulated gas prices established The U.S. Supreme Court rules that interstate natural gas producers are subject to regulation by the Federal Power Commission. An era of regulated gas prices is established, based on the cost of providing gas rather than its market value. This keeps prices low, encouraging demand, but it discourages exploration and thus contributes to shortages in the 1970s.
1956 Hubbert predicts oil peak around 1970 U.S. geologist Marion King Hubbert predicts that oil production in the lower 48 states will peak around 1970, a forecast that proves to be accurate. Hubbert’s work becomes a lightning rod for debate about oil supplies for decades to come.
1973 OAPEC nations cut oil production Members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) meet in Kuwait as the Yom Kippur War goes on. They reach agreement on a coordinated policy of cuts in oil production coupled with price increases. 1973 Oil embargo against the United States The Arab oil-producing states impose a complete embargo on oil shipments to the United States in retaliation for American support of Israel in the Yom Kippur War. The embargo will later be extended to the Netherlands. Japan and other nations in Europe will also be hard hit by the combination of price increases and production cuts. 1973 Gasoline rationed in the United States President Nixon announces standby gasoline rationing in light of the Arab oil embargo. New provisions include a ban on Sunday sale of gasoline. Various states also impose forms of rationing; e.g., sale of gas to motorists on alternate days depending on a car’s license number.
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1973 First major energy crisis in United States The first major energy crisis in the United States occurs as a result of the Arab oil embargo. By the following year the price of crude oil will be four times its level of 1972. The oil embargo will be lifted in March of 1974, but the United States and other Western nations will continue to feel its effects for years to come. 1973 Watt-Miser introduced In response to the energy crisis of the time, Edward E. Hammer, an American engineer with General Electric, develops a standard-shaped 40-watt fluorescent lamp, called the F-40 Watt-Miser. It is regarded as the first energy-efficient linear fluorescent lamp. 1974 55 mph speed limit in United States U.S. President Richard Nixon announces a series of measures to cope with fuel shortages, such as a national 55-mph speed limit and year-round daylight saving time. Oil embargo Much lighter than usual traffic on a major U.S. interstate highway in December, 1973. This was the result of a national ban on the sale of gasoline on Sunday because of a fuel shortage resulting from the Arab embargo on oil shipments to the U.S. Various European countries such as Britain, Germany, and Italy, also affected by the embargo, did not allow any Sunday driving at all. (Environmental Protection Agency)
1974 England enacts reduced speed limits As a response to the oil crisis, England reduces speed limits on dual carriageways, which are limited to 60 mph (96 kph), and on all other roads to 50 mph (80 kph). 1974 Massive truckers strike A group known as the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association of America stages a massive nationwide strike protesting spiraling cost of fuel, fuel shortages, and reduced speed limits. Violence erupts when an estimated 5,000 members within Pennsylvania participate in the 10-day trucking shutdown and attempt to halt truckers not participating in the strike.
1974 Oil embargo lifted The Arab oil embargo is lifted. During the embargo, OPEC members earned more than $100 billion because of the increase in the price of crude oil. 1974 IEA addresses issue of fuel shortages The International Energy Agency is created, a forum for 26 member countries who are committed to taking joint measures to meet oil supply emergencies. IEA collects and publishes a wide array of energy and environmental data and research reports. 1975 EPCA enacted As a result of the oil crisis of 1973–74, the U.S. Congress enacts the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA). EPCA sets minimum fuel economy standards for cars and light trucks, and also establishes the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, an emergency oil store intended to counteract a severe supply interruption.
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1978 Natural Gas Policy Act passed Shortages of natural gas prompt the U.S. Congress to pass the Natural Gas Policy Act, which effectively ends decades of natural gas price controls by the federal government. The goal of the legislation is to deregulate natural gas prices over time, to encourage exploration, and to reduce the price differentials between interstate and intrastate markets. 1979 Energy riots in United States In the wake of the Iranian revolution and consequent gasoline shortage, a convoy of independent truckers converge on the Five Points intersection in Levittown, Pennsylvania (which contains four gasoline stations) to publicize their nationwide strike. Scores of enthusiastic local citizens line the streets to cheer on the convoy. When one trucker is taken to the ground and beaten by police, the protest turns violent. Several thousand protestors torch cars, destroy gas pumps, and pelt police with rocks and bottles. The police fight back intensely; many protesters are struck by clubs or bitten by police attack dogs. 1979 Renewable energy demonstrations At the Appropriate Community Technology demonstration on Washington D.C. mall, hundreds of emerging renewable energy businesses—solar manufacturers, alcohol fuels producers, windmill companies, and other alternative energy groups—demonstrate new ideas and proposed solutions to the energy crisis of the time. 1979 Carter gives his “malaise” speech In a time of rising energy prices and fuel shortages, President Jimmy Carter gives a speech in which he speaks of a crisis in the American spirit. He calls for import quotas, a tax on oil profits, development of synthetic fuels, and individual energy conservation. Now known as the “malaise” speech, it is poorly received by the public and contributes to Carter’s loss in the next election. 1979 Iran revolution causes oil price spike Oil prices rise sharply following the revolution in Iran, largely because of fears that overall supplies from the Persian Gulf will be disrupted. By 1981 they will reach an all-time high of $36.47 per barrel or nearly triple the price prior to the revolt. Once again political events of the Middle East cause an energy crisis in the United States. 1983–1986 OPEC production cut by more than half Faced with reduced demand for its oil and increased oil production from nonmember nations, OPEC oil production is cut by more than one-half; a “free-for-all” situation prevails with a rapid rise in Saudi Arabia’s production, culminating in an oil price collapse in July, 1986 with Arab Light selling at less than $8 per barrel. 1987 Montreal Protocol signed The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is signed, requiring industrialized countries to reduce their consumption of chemicals harming the ozone layer. Requirements are then strengthened through later amendments (1990–99). 1990 Iraq invades Kuwait Kuwait is invaded by Iraqi forces; six days later, Saddam Hussein declares the country to be a province of Iraq. Crude oil prices rise to above $30 a barrel amid great uncertainty in world markets. The UN then embargoes the export of oil from Iraq in response to the invasion. 1990s Russia experiences long slide in oil production Russia, after having become the world’s largest oil producer in the late 1980s, experiences a decade-long slide in production. The causes are resource depletion, poor management, reduced maintenance, and
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curtailed exploration, all of which are exacerbated by the economic crisis following the collapse of the Soviet Union. 1993–1994 Oil imports exceed domestic oil production U.S. oil imports exceed domestic oil production for the first time; import dependence will continue to grow in the coming years. early 2000s Silicon shortages Rapid expansion of photovoltaic power installation creates surging demand for silicon wafers and the polysilicon raw material feedstock. This raises concern about possible short run supply constraints. PHOTON International (a PV industry publication) sponsors Solar Silicon Conferences in Munich to discuss silicon supply and demand issues. Supply concerns ease by 2009 due to increased production and less demand due to the global recession and reduced subsidies in many nations. 2001 Rolling blackouts in California Millions of people in California experience a new energy phenomenon known as a “rolling blackout.” This is a planned series of temporary, controlled power outages intended to prevent heavy demand from disabling the state’s electrical grid. Californians are faced with a combination of increased energy prices and reduced, uncertain supply. 2002 General strike in Venezuela A general strike occurs in Venezuela against President Hugo Chavez. Oil production and exports drop to nearly zero, sending a shudder through world oil markets and helping oil prices to rise sharply. 2002–2003 Oil prices increase by 50% Oil prices increase by 50% between November and March due to strikes in the Venezuelan oil sector, a shortage of home heating oil in a cold winter, and fears of what a U.S.-Iraq war will do to oil production and prices. Oil prices drop sharply in the opening days of the war when Iraq does not sabotage production facilities at home or in Kuwait. 2005 Oil price reaches $70 Oil prices rise above $70 per barrel, the highest front month price since the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) began trading contracts in 1983, as Hurricane Katrina comes ashore off the Gulf of Mexico and shuts down oil platforms and refineries. The Gulf of Mexico is home to a quarter of U.S. oil and gas production. 2011 Drop in China hydropower output China’s hydroelectric generation drops by almost a quarter compared with 2010 due to a major shrinkage in river flow. Some experts blame it on climate change, and warn of more future droughts in areas traditionally blessed with water.
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WORD CLOUDS Jevons Coal Question
In 1865 British economist W. Stanley Jevons publishes The Coal Question; An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coal Mines. Jevons argues that coal is essential for the industry of Britain and that this resource will one day be exhausted, resulting in the collapse of British supremacy over global affairs. Jevons covers a range of issues that remain central to modern debates about sustainability, including limits to growth, overpopulation, overshoot (consumption exceeding carrying capacity), diminishing returns, taxation of energy resources, and renewable energy alternatives. Jevons' prediction proves wrong, because he fails to foresee improvements in mining technology, the use of oil as a substitute for coal, and the expansion of international trade in energy.
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Campbell and Laherre
The End of Cheap Oil, by British petroleum geologist Colin J. Campbell and petroleum engineer Jean H. Laherrère, was published in Scientific American, March 1998. This publication helps launch the “peak oil” issue in scientific literature and the popular press. Campbell and Laherrère argue that world oil production will begin to decline in the near future, and that technological changes and economic incentives will do little to change that. Campbell will go on to found the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas in 2000, a network of scientists whose goal is to attempt to determine the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world’s production of oil and gas.
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Depletion and Shortages The subject area Depletion and Shortages deals with scarcity of natural resources. The scarcity may be a lack of an energy source itself (e.g., wood, oil), or of a material used in the manufacture of an energy source (e.g., silicon for PV power). This section also deals with reactions to actual or anticipated shortages of energy (e.g., various recent efforts to develop alternative energy because of anticipated future shortages of fossil fuels). The issue of energy shortages often has had major effects on history. In World War II, a momentous—and ultimately fateful—strategic decision made by Nazi Germany has been associated with concerns about energy supply. This was the Wehrmacht’s movement to the East in World War II, culminating with the invasion of Russia in June 1941. It was motivated in large part by the desire to gain access to foreign oil fields (as in Romania) in order to compensate for Germany’s own inadequate energy resources. The shortage that likely would be most familiar to the general public is a relatively recent occurrence, namely the socalled energy crisis of 1973–74. Set off by an Arab oil embargo in the wake of the Yom Kippur war, it was marked in the U.S. by a quadrupling of the price of crude oil, gas rationing, a national mandate to reduce speed limits, and long lines of motorists waiting (often in vain) at gas stations with the hope of refueling. This was followed by two similar shortages that also resulted from events in the Middle East, one being the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the other the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Both of these also resulted in a sharp spike in oil prices. However, the original crisis of 1973–74 remains the most significant because for the first time people became aware of the tenuous nature of energy supply and the important, far-reaching effects that a shortage of supply could bring about. In today’s world it is generally accepted that energy supply is both fragile in the short term and finite over the long term. This understanding is reflected in the widespread, and ever-increasing, efforts to lessen dependence on fossil fuels through the use of energy sources that are less susceptible to price shocks and supply constraints; e.g., solar, wind, or geothermal energy.
Handbook of Energy, Volume II. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-417013-1.00041-8 © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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CHRONOLOGY ca. 2000 BC Early example of deforestation The Indus Valley society, one of the leading sites of early civilization, declines and eventually collapses. Cited as a leading cause of this is the large-scale removal of forests. 400s BC Solar energy developed in reaction to wood shortage Spurred in part by wood fuel scarcity, classical Greek architecture develops widespread use of passive solar energy. Socrates states the basic principles of this practice: homes are oriented toward the south, and eaves are added to provide shade for south windows in summer. Entire cities are designed to allow equitable access to winter sunlight. ca. 380 BC Parts of Greece devoid of trees Many parts of Greece are completely bare of trees due to their harvest for fuel, smelting operations, and shipbuilding. The philosopher Plato laments, “The mere skeleton of the land remains.” A tax is then placed on wood for home heating and cooking, and the supply of wood is regulated by public authorities in some localities. mid-100s BC Decline in forest cover occurs in Rome A decline in forest cover occurs in the environs of Rome because of demand for wood for industrial fuel, home and ship construction, central heating, and lavish baths. 1230 Importing of Scandinavian timber to England The first importing of Scandinavian timber is recorded in England. This indicates that wood as a domestic fuel supply was already experiencing shortages, due to demand for heating and building and also for industrial uses such as iron-working, brewing, dyeing, and glassmaking. early 1300s Wood shortages in England Serious wood shortages begin to be reported in England and elsewhere in Western Europe. These will become gradually more acute over the next 300 years, as forest are cleared for fuel and timber. 1560 Swedish Baltic Empire exploits wood shortages elsewhere The Swedish Baltic Empire dominates Northern Europe from this time until 1721, based in part on its rise as a producer and exporter of metals, while England’s and mid-Europe’s metal production declines due to a drop in charcoal production caused by deforestation and wood scarcity. 1615 Wood prohibited for glassmaking in England A royal proclamation in Britain prohibits the use of wood for glassmaking. Wood is in high demand for the crucial shipbuilding industry, so glassmaking furnaces are changed to burn coal instead. 1630 England’s depletion of wood supply England experiences a widespread shortage of firewood, especially in areas with ironworks since large amounts of fuel are required for smelting iron. This depletion of the wood supply leads to a shift to coal as the chief energy source for smelting and other industrial purposes. As a result, England becomes the first country to develop a full-scale coal industry. 1784 Franklin urges the substitution of coal for wood Benjamin Franklin notes that the substitution of coal for wood as a fuel has helped to preserve England’s remaining forests, and he urges France and Germany to do the same.
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1798 Malthus on population and resources Thomas Robert Malthus publishes An Essay on the Principle of Population, arguing that poverty and famine are inevitable because the world’s population is bound to grow at a faster rate than the food supply. This leads to many subsequent analyses of the relationship between population and available resources, in particular Darwin’s ideas about natural selection. 1850s Whaling industry in steep decline The New England whaling industry is in steep decline because of massive depletion of whale stocks and the rise of petroleum and other fuels that are used in place of whale oil. 1860 Research on solar energy to replace coal Concerned about France’s dependence on coal, solar pioneer Auguste Mouchot begins research on the direct conversion of the Sun’s energy into mechanical power. He goes on to develop a solar-powered steam engine. 1865 Jevons warns Britain about coal dependence The British economist W. Stanley Jevons publishes The Coal Question, in which he argues that coal is essential for the industry of Britain and that this resource will one day be exhausted, causing the collapse of British society. The prediction proves wrong because Jevons did not foresee improvements in mining technology and the use of oil as a substitute for coal. 1865 Jevons’ paradox formulated W. Stanley Jevons formulates Jevons’ paradox, a concept now employed by modern scholars. It states that increased efficiency in the use of a natural resource, such as coal, will actually result in greater consumption, not less. This is because improvement in efficiency will lead to higher demand; e.g., U.S. gas consumption increased after fuel-efficient cars were introduced in the 1970s. 1874 Jules Verne foresees coal depletion Jules Verne publishes The Mysterious Island, set during the U.S. Civil War. The book’s main characters speculate on how the depletion of coal will affect the future. Cyrus Harding, one of the characters, asserts his belief that one day hydrogen and oxygen, which together form water, will be used either alone or together as an inexhaustible source of heat and light. 1900 Variety of fuels for U.S. automobiles At the dawn of the automotive era, the widespread availability of ethyl alcohol and concerns about access to oil reserves influence manufacturers to produce engine designs that can be adapted to both fuels. Henry’s Ford’s first vehicles are designed to run on multiple fuels, including alcohol. 1918 U.S. production of anthracite coal peaks U.S. production of anthracite coal peaks at 100 million tons per year. Located primarily in the state of Pennsylvania, anthracite is a relatively clean burning form of coal that enjoys extensive use in home heating. By 2000 production drops to about 4 million tons, due largely to the depletion of the resource base. 1918 Depletion allowance for fossil fuels A U.S. Revenue Act restores the depletion allowance for minerals and fossil fuels, reducing taxes for owners of such resources to compensate for the exhaustion of an irreplaceable capital asset. Critics argue
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that the allowance is a huge subsidy because these resources are valuable enough to justify high levels of investment without tax incentives. 1920 USGS estimates domestic oil supply David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates the amount of total oil remaining in the United States at 6.7 billion barrels. This estimate includes both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered; White concedes that it might well be in error by as much as 25%. 1921 Russian oil production drops due to revolution Russian oil production and exports drop sharply as a result of the Russian revolution in 1917, and the nationalization of the oil fields by the Communists in 1920. Production strengthens by the mid-1920s due to an infusion of foreign investment from the West. 1922 Twenty years of oil reserves predicted The U.S. Geological Survey predicts that the United States only has a sufficient domestic oil supply to last 20 years. The report stimulates research into how engines can be made more efficient, including research into antiknock additives such as ethyl alcohol and lead. 1923 Early call for renewable hydrogen British-born biologist John Burdon Sanderson Haldane, foreseeing the exhaustion of coal for power generation in Britain, proposes a network of hydrogen-generating windmills. This is one of the earliest known proposals for a renewable energy system. 1926 Six remaining years of oil predicted The Federal Oil Conservation Board of the United States estimates that the nation has only enough oil to last for another six years. 1931 Theory of optimal depletion of resources Harold Hotelling of the United States describes the economic theory of the optimal depletion of nonrenewable resources, which is still the dominant paradigm today in economics. 1941 Nazi Germany seeks Soviet oil Nazi Germany surprisingly invades the Soviet Union, after having formed a nonaggression pact with the Soviets just two years earlier. The primary military objective of this operation is to capture the valuable Caucasus oil fields, since Germany’s own supply is relatively meager and dependent on synthetic oil. 1941 Japan concludes that it will run out of oil Having been denied access to oil supplies from the United States and the Dutch East Indies, the Japanese government concludes that if existing conditions continue they will run out of oil within a short time. This is cited by historians as an important motivation for Japan’s decision to launch a surprise attack on the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7th, and to invade the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia) on Dec. 17th. 1942 Biogas as substitute fuel in WWII During World War II, fuel-starved Germans build anaerobic digesters to generate biogas as the power source for farm machinery. The gas is compressed at 3,000 psi and charged into pressurized steel “Äúbottles” that contain the equivalent of 10 gallons of gasoline.
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1945 End of wartime gasoline rationing The end of gasoline rationing in the United States is announced after the surrender of Japan. This measure had been in place since 1942. In Britain, fuel rationing will not end until 1950. 1947 Passive solar popular in energy-scarce United States Passive solar buildings in the United States are in such demand as a result of scarce energy during World War II that the Libbey–Owens– Ford Glass Company publishes a book entitled Your Solar House, profiling the nation’s leading solar architects.
Gas rationing Gasoline rationing during World War II made this gas station a busy stop, since it was the last place where motorists could fill up before entering a gas-rationed area. Most U.S. drivers got an ‘A’ ration sticker for a limited amount of gas (4 gallons per week; later 3). Those whose driving was necessary for their occupation got more, but only people whose work was considered essential to the war effort (and politicians) were entitled to an unlimited amount. (Ann Rosener/U.S. Office of War Information)
1954 Regulated gas prices established The U.S. Supreme Court rules that interstate natural gas producers are subject to regulation by the Federal Power Commission. An era of regulated gas prices is established, based on the cost of providing gas rather than its market value. This keeps prices low, encouraging demand, but it discourages exploration and thus contributes to shortages in the 1970s.
1956 Hubbert predicts oil peak around 1970 U.S. geologist Marion King Hubbert predicts that oil production in the lower 48 states will peak around 1970, a forecast that proves to be accurate. Hubbert’s work becomes a lightning rod for debate about oil supplies for decades to come.
1973 OAPEC nations cut oil production Members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) meet in Kuwait as the Yom Kippur War goes on. They reach agreement on a coordinated policy of cuts in oil production coupled with price increases. 1973 Oil embargo against the United States The Arab oil-producing states impose a complete embargo on oil shipments to the United States in retaliation for American support of Israel in the Yom Kippur War. The embargo will later be extended to the Netherlands. Japan and other nations in Europe will also be hard hit by the combination of price increases and production cuts. 1973 Gasoline rationed in the United States President Nixon announces standby gasoline rationing in light of the Arab oil embargo. New provisions include a ban on Sunday sale of gasoline. Various states also impose forms of rationing; e.g., sale of gas to motorists on alternate days depending on a car’s license number.
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1973 First major energy crisis in United States The first major energy crisis in the United States occurs as a result of the Arab oil embargo. By the following year the price of crude oil will be four times its level of 1972. The oil embargo will be lifted in March of 1974, but the United States and other Western nations will continue to feel its effects for years to come. 1973 Watt-Miser introduced In response to the energy crisis of the time, Edward E. Hammer, an American engineer with General Electric, develops a standard-shaped 40-watt fluorescent lamp, called the F-40 Watt-Miser. It is regarded as the first energy-efficient linear fluorescent lamp. 1974 55 mph speed limit in United States U.S. President Richard Nixon announces a series of measures to cope with fuel shortages, such as a national 55-mph speed limit and year-round daylight saving time. Oil embargo Much lighter than usual traffic on a major U.S. interstate highway in December, 1973. This was the result of a national ban on the sale of gasoline on Sunday because of a fuel shortage resulting from the Arab embargo on oil shipments to the U.S. Various European countries such as Britain, Germany, and Italy, also affected by the embargo, did not allow any Sunday driving at all. (Environmental Protection Agency)
1974 England enacts reduced speed limits As a response to the oil crisis, England reduces speed limits on dual carriageways, which are limited to 60 mph (96 kph), and on all other roads to 50 mph (80 kph). 1974 Massive truckers strike A group known as the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association of America stages a massive nationwide strike protesting spiraling cost of fuel, fuel shortages, and reduced speed limits. Violence erupts when an estimated 5,000 members within Pennsylvania participate in the 10-day trucking shutdown and attempt to halt truckers not participating in the strike.
1974 Oil embargo lifted The Arab oil embargo is lifted. During the embargo, OPEC members earned more than $100 billion because of the increase in the price of crude oil. 1974 IEA addresses issue of fuel shortages The International Energy Agency is created, a forum for 26 member countries who are committed to taking joint measures to meet oil supply emergencies. IEA collects and publishes a wide array of energy and environmental data and research reports. 1975 EPCA enacted As a result of the oil crisis of 1973–74, the U.S. Congress enacts the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA). EPCA sets minimum fuel economy standards for cars and light trucks, and also establishes the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, an emergency oil store intended to counteract a severe supply interruption.
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1978 Natural Gas Policy Act passed Shortages of natural gas prompt the U.S. Congress to pass the Natural Gas Policy Act, which effectively ends decades of natural gas price controls by the federal government. The goal of the legislation is to deregulate natural gas prices over time, to encourage exploration, and to reduce the price differentials between interstate and intrastate markets. 1979 Energy riots in United States In the wake of the Iranian revolution and consequent gasoline shortage, a convoy of independent truckers converge on the Five Points intersection in Levittown, Pennsylvania (which contains four gasoline stations) to publicize their nationwide strike. Scores of enthusiastic local citizens line the streets to cheer on the convoy. When one trucker is taken to the ground and beaten by police, the protest turns violent. Several thousand protestors torch cars, destroy gas pumps, and pelt police with rocks and bottles. The police fight back intensely; many protesters are struck by clubs or bitten by police attack dogs. 1979 Renewable energy demonstrations At the Appropriate Community Technology demonstration on Washington D.C. mall, hundreds of emerging renewable energy businesses—solar manufacturers, alcohol fuels producers, windmill companies, and other alternative energy groups—demonstrate new ideas and proposed solutions to the energy crisis of the time. 1979 Carter gives his “malaise” speech In a time of rising energy prices and fuel shortages, President Jimmy Carter gives a speech in which he speaks of a crisis in the American spirit. He calls for import quotas, a tax on oil profits, development of synthetic fuels, and individual energy conservation. Now known as the “malaise” speech, it is poorly received by the public and contributes to Carter’s loss in the next election. 1979 Iran revolution causes oil price spike Oil prices rise sharply following the revolution in Iran, largely because of fears that overall supplies from the Persian Gulf will be disrupted. By 1981 they will reach an all-time high of $36.47 per barrel or nearly triple the price prior to the revolt. Once again political events of the Middle East cause an energy crisis in the United States. 1983–1986 OPEC production cut by more than half Faced with reduced demand for its oil and increased oil production from nonmember nations, OPEC oil production is cut by more than one-half; a “free-for-all” situation prevails with a rapid rise in Saudi Arabia’s production, culminating in an oil price collapse in July, 1986 with Arab Light selling at less than $8 per barrel. 1987 Montreal Protocol signed The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is signed, requiring industrialized countries to reduce their consumption of chemicals harming the ozone layer. Requirements are then strengthened through later amendments (1990–99). 1990 Iraq invades Kuwait Kuwait is invaded by Iraqi forces; six days later, Saddam Hussein declares the country to be a province of Iraq. Crude oil prices rise to above $30 a barrel amid great uncertainty in world markets. The UN then embargoes the export of oil from Iraq in response to the invasion. 1990s Russia experiences long slide in oil production Russia, after having become the world’s largest oil producer in the late 1980s, experiences a decade-long slide in production. The causes are resource depletion, poor management, reduced maintenance, and
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curtailed exploration, all of which are exacerbated by the economic crisis following the collapse of the Soviet Union. 1993–1994 Oil imports exceed domestic oil production U.S. oil imports exceed domestic oil production for the first time; import dependence will continue to grow in the coming years. early 2000s Silicon shortages Rapid expansion of photovoltaic power installation creates surging demand for silicon wafers and the polysilicon raw material feedstock. This raises concern about possible short run supply constraints. PHOTON International (a PV industry publication) sponsors Solar Silicon Conferences in Munich to discuss silicon supply and demand issues. Supply concerns ease by 2009 due to increased production and less demand due to the global recession and reduced subsidies in many nations. 2001 Rolling blackouts in California Millions of people in California experience a new energy phenomenon known as a “rolling blackout.” This is a planned series of temporary, controlled power outages intended to prevent heavy demand from disabling the state’s electrical grid. Californians are faced with a combination of increased energy prices and reduced, uncertain supply. 2002 General strike in Venezuela A general strike occurs in Venezuela against President Hugo Chavez. Oil production and exports drop to nearly zero, sending a shudder through world oil markets and helping oil prices to rise sharply. 2002–2003 Oil prices increase by 50% Oil prices increase by 50% between November and March due to strikes in the Venezuelan oil sector, a shortage of home heating oil in a cold winter, and fears of what a U.S.-Iraq war will do to oil production and prices. Oil prices drop sharply in the opening days of the war when Iraq does not sabotage production facilities at home or in Kuwait. 2005 Oil price reaches $70 Oil prices rise above $70 per barrel, the highest front month price since the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) began trading contracts in 1983, as Hurricane Katrina comes ashore off the Gulf of Mexico and shuts down oil platforms and refineries. The Gulf of Mexico is home to a quarter of U.S. oil and gas production. 2011 Drop in China hydropower output China’s hydroelectric generation drops by almost a quarter compared with 2010 due to a major shrinkage in river flow. Some experts blame it on climate change, and warn of more future droughts in areas traditionally blessed with water.
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WORD CLOUDS Jevons Coal Question
In 1865 British economist W. Stanley Jevons publishes The Coal Question; An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coal Mines. Jevons argues that coal is essential for the industry of Britain and that this resource will one day be exhausted, resulting in the collapse of British supremacy over global affairs. Jevons covers a range of issues that remain central to modern debates about sustainability, including limits to growth, overpopulation, overshoot (consumption exceeding carrying capacity), diminishing returns, taxation of energy resources, and renewable energy alternatives. Jevons' prediction proves wrong, because he fails to foresee improvements in mining technology, the use of oil as a substitute for coal, and the expansion of international trade in energy.
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Campbell and Laherre
The End of Cheap Oil, by British petroleum geologist Colin J. Campbell and petroleum engineer Jean H. Laherrère, was published in Scientific American, March 1998. This publication helps launch the “peak oil” issue in scientific literature and the popular press. Campbell and Laherrère argue that world oil production will begin to decline in the near future, and that technological changes and economic incentives will do little to change that. Campbell will go on to found the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas in 2000, a network of scientists whose goal is to attempt to determine the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world’s production of oil and gas.