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A formula for crime LOS ANGELES police are getting tip-offs from unlikely informants: mathematicians. Using crime data from southern California, Jeffrey Brantingham of the University of California, Los Angeles, and his colleagues set out to calculate how the movements of criminals and victims create opportunities for crime, and how police can reduce it. They came up with a pair of equations that could explain how local crime hotspots form – which turned out to be similar to those that describe molecular reactions and diffusion. The equations suggested that there are two kinds of hotspot. The first, called “supercritical”, arises when small spikes in crime pass a certain threshold and create a local
crime wave. The second, “subcritical”, happens when a particular factor – the presence of a drug den, for instance – causes a large spike in crime. The equations also indicated that rigorous policing could completely eliminate the subcritical hotspots, but would simply displace the supercritical variety (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/ pnas.0910921107). The approach “presents a novel hypothesis of how hotspots form”, says John Eck, a criminologist at the University of Cincinnati, Ohio. Brantingham hopes eventually to be able to predict where subcritical hotspots are forming, so police can step in to nip problems in the bud. His team is already collaborating with Los Angeles police.
–Catching a crime wave–
No to homeopathy POLITICIANS and scientists may not always see eye to eye, but in homeopathy they have found something to agree on. In the UK, a parliamentary committee has concluded that homeopathic remedies work no better than placebos and should not be paid for by the taxpayer. The UK National Health Service funds homeopathic hospitals, some homeopathic prescriptions and allows doctors to refer patients to homeopaths. The Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency licenses homeopathic remedies, even though they are made from solutions diluted so much that it is extremely unlikely that any active component is left.
“There is no reliable record of how much the National Health Service spends on homeopathy” Now the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee, which examined the scientific evidence behind these policies, says that it found no 6 | NewScientist | 27 February 2010
evidence that homeopathic remedies work beyond a placebo effect. It concludes that current policy gives the incorrect impression that the evidence for such remedies is as strong as for conventional medicines and is inconsistent with a policy of informed patient choice. The report says that there is no reliable record of how much the NHS spends on homeopathy. Mike O’Brien, the minister responsible for the NHS, told the committee that the service spends £150,000 a year on remedies; the UK Society of Homeopaths puts the figure at £4 million. The UK-based Prince’s Foundation for Integrated Health, which backs complementary medicine, acknowledges that homeopathy is “scientifically implausible”, but says: “For patients suffering from long term disease, where no scientific, evidence based medicine can offer effective treatment, it does not matter how it works.” The UK government is not obliged to implement the committee’s recommendations, but must respond to its report.
Coal climate USUALLY when US states strike out at the federal government’s track record on environment issues it is to highlight its lack of action. Not so for Utah. In a resolution passed earlier this month, the state’s House of Representatives called on the US government to suspend efforts to cut industrial emissions until an investigation into climate science has been completed. The original text of the resolution mentioned “the climate data
conspiracy”, a reference to the fallout from the leaked emails from the UK’s Climatic Research Unit. The resolution states that the messages reveal a “well organized” effort to “manipulate” global temperature data. It may be worries about the local economy, rather than a concern for data integrity, that prompted the Utah resolution. The state generates over 95 per cent of its electricity from coalfired power stations, and would face higher energy costs if carbon emissions were regulated.
Drug laws hurt cancer patients OVERZEALOUS regulation of opioids is having a painful knock-on effect on eastern Europeans with cancer. Opioid-type drugs are potent painkillers. The World Health Organization lists two of them, codeine and morphine, as “essential medicines” that ought to be available worldwide. Nathan Cherny of Shaare Zedek Medical Center in Jerusalem, Israel, and colleagues asked cancer pain specialists, including doctors, from 40 European countries plus
Israel, to review access to opioids in their countries. They found that tens of thousands of cancer patients in several former Soviet bloc countries can’t easily get them because of laws aimed at preventing black markets in these drugs (Annals of Oncology, DOI: 10.1093/annonc/mdp581). In Ukraine, for example, patients are only allowed a day’s supply of medicine at a time, while in Georgia they must get a stamp from a police station to obtain opioids.