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Earthquake prediction techniques: their application in Japan
Applied
Geography
(1984),
4, 183-184
Book reviews
Asada, T. (ed.) (1982). Earfhquake prediction fechniques: their applicafion in Japan (translated by M. Ohnuki). Tokyo: University of Tokyo Press, 1982. 317 pp. $17.50 hardback. The Japanese have long been at the forefront of research in earthquake prediction, with a formal national programme nearly 20 years old that predates those in China and the USA. This book presents an insightful summary of Japanese work in the field, including the past and future directions of the Japanese prediction programme. Although some sections are quite technical. overall the book is quite readable by those with only a passing acquaintance with the topic. The translation is excellent, although a few unusual choices of terminology are present. It was first published in Japanese in 1978 and little updating was done for the translated version. The ten authors, whose 12 chapters arc grouped into four parts of three chapters each, are all senior personnel in their disciplines. Their discussions reflect the variance in scientific opinion on the course and potential of earthquake prediction. The first part deals with the repeatability of earthquakes at particular locations. Asada briefly chronicles the history of seismology in Japan. Usami discusses the lOOO-year record of destructive Japanese earthquakes. emphasizing the recurring earthquakes along the offshore subduction zones. Matsuda discusses the contribution of geomorphology to identifying potential locations. periodicity. and sizes of major earthquakes. The second and third parts of the book deal with selected precursors to earthquakes. Longrange precursors and study techniques allow identification of locations and general timing of potential future earthquakes. Takagi discusses micro-earthquake studies, emphasizing their uscfulness in describing earthquake patterns. Yashii reviews the use of changes in the velocity of seismic waves before earthquakes, emphasizing difficulties with using these as prediction tools. Sato reviews results of geodetic surveys in Japan a cornerstone of their prediction programme, as they use strain concentrations as primary indicators of locations of future earthquakes. Selected short-term precursory phenomena are discussed in the next section. Suyehiro argues for the need for continuous strainmeter observations; his paper cites 33 cases of precursory strain changes. Wakita discusses changes in groundwater level and chemistry before and during earthquakes; fully 113 examples arc cited. Finally,
Mizutani presents evidence for electromagnetic anomalies accompanying or preceding earthquakes. The final section discusses the road to actual earthquake prediction in Japan. In contrast to the earlier sections which describe how successful certain techniques have been or can be, this section emphasizes uncertainties in prediction potential and disagreements about approaches. Ishibashi attacks the present Japanese approach to earthquake prediction, arguing for more intensive study of potential earthquake areas. Tokagi similarly argues for a more concerted effort to analyse short-term precursory phenomena. In the final chapter, Usami reviews the Japanese earthquake prediction project, from its 1962 beginnings to future directions. A basic flaw in the Japanese prediction programme emerges in this book: although scientifically the Japanese are at the forefront in many areas, they have made few efforts to evaluate socioeconomic aspects of predictions. It is encouraging that several authors recognize this limitation and even more so that these factors play a central role in the 1978 Special Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act, which now governs much of their prediction programmc. In sum, the book is an excellent summary of Japanese earthquake prediction efforts and is readily accessible to a reader with only limited background in the field. Peter L. K. Knuepfer Deparlment of Geosciences,
University ofArizona
J. A. Shopping centre development Dawson, (Topics in applied geography). London: Longman, 1983. 124 pp. f5.95 paperback. The purpose-built shopping centre is a phenomcnon that has proliferated throughout most of the western economies in recent decades and in some of the Eastern Bloc countries too. It is a development which, in many circumstances. has changed quite fundamentally the spatial structure of the retail environment and contributed to different kinds of shopping behaviour. It therefore lends itself to geographical study and enquiry, particularly from an applied geographical point of view. This book is therefore immediately welcome, although there may be some debate as to how far it constitutes an essay in applied geography. There are two chapters on ‘The growth and spread of
Geography
(1984),
4, 183-184
Book reviews
Asada, T. (ed.) (1982). Earfhquake prediction fechniques: their applicafion in Japan (translated by M. Ohnuki). Tokyo: University of Tokyo Press, 1982. 317 pp. $17.50 hardback. The Japanese have long been at the forefront of research in earthquake prediction, with a formal national programme nearly 20 years old that predates those in China and the USA. This book presents an insightful summary of Japanese work in the field, including the past and future directions of the Japanese prediction programme. Although some sections are quite technical. overall the book is quite readable by those with only a passing acquaintance with the topic. The translation is excellent, although a few unusual choices of terminology are present. It was first published in Japanese in 1978 and little updating was done for the translated version. The ten authors, whose 12 chapters arc grouped into four parts of three chapters each, are all senior personnel in their disciplines. Their discussions reflect the variance in scientific opinion on the course and potential of earthquake prediction. The first part deals with the repeatability of earthquakes at particular locations. Asada briefly chronicles the history of seismology in Japan. Usami discusses the lOOO-year record of destructive Japanese earthquakes. emphasizing the recurring earthquakes along the offshore subduction zones. Matsuda discusses the contribution of geomorphology to identifying potential locations. periodicity. and sizes of major earthquakes. The second and third parts of the book deal with selected precursors to earthquakes. Longrange precursors and study techniques allow identification of locations and general timing of potential future earthquakes. Takagi discusses micro-earthquake studies, emphasizing their uscfulness in describing earthquake patterns. Yashii reviews the use of changes in the velocity of seismic waves before earthquakes, emphasizing difficulties with using these as prediction tools. Sato reviews results of geodetic surveys in Japan a cornerstone of their prediction programme, as they use strain concentrations as primary indicators of locations of future earthquakes. Selected short-term precursory phenomena are discussed in the next section. Suyehiro argues for the need for continuous strainmeter observations; his paper cites 33 cases of precursory strain changes. Wakita discusses changes in groundwater level and chemistry before and during earthquakes; fully 113 examples arc cited. Finally,
Mizutani presents evidence for electromagnetic anomalies accompanying or preceding earthquakes. The final section discusses the road to actual earthquake prediction in Japan. In contrast to the earlier sections which describe how successful certain techniques have been or can be, this section emphasizes uncertainties in prediction potential and disagreements about approaches. Ishibashi attacks the present Japanese approach to earthquake prediction, arguing for more intensive study of potential earthquake areas. Tokagi similarly argues for a more concerted effort to analyse short-term precursory phenomena. In the final chapter, Usami reviews the Japanese earthquake prediction project, from its 1962 beginnings to future directions. A basic flaw in the Japanese prediction programme emerges in this book: although scientifically the Japanese are at the forefront in many areas, they have made few efforts to evaluate socioeconomic aspects of predictions. It is encouraging that several authors recognize this limitation and even more so that these factors play a central role in the 1978 Special Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act, which now governs much of their prediction programmc. In sum, the book is an excellent summary of Japanese earthquake prediction efforts and is readily accessible to a reader with only limited background in the field. Peter L. K. Knuepfer Deparlment of Geosciences,
University ofArizona
J. A. Shopping centre development Dawson, (Topics in applied geography). London: Longman, 1983. 124 pp. f5.95 paperback. The purpose-built shopping centre is a phenomcnon that has proliferated throughout most of the western economies in recent decades and in some of the Eastern Bloc countries too. It is a development which, in many circumstances. has changed quite fundamentally the spatial structure of the retail environment and contributed to different kinds of shopping behaviour. It therefore lends itself to geographical study and enquiry, particularly from an applied geographical point of view. This book is therefore immediately welcome, although there may be some debate as to how far it constitutes an essay in applied geography. There are two chapters on ‘The growth and spread of