- Email: [email protected]
Ecological Models as Decision Tools in the 21st Century
e c o l o g i c a l m o d e l l i n g 1 9 9 ( 2 0 0 6 ) 217–218
available at www.sciencedirect.com
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodel
Preface
Ecological Models as Decision Tools in the 21st Century Proceedings of a conference organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) in Quebec, Canada, August 22–24, 2004
Ecological modelling uses concepts in mathematics, systems analysis and computer programming to simulate the dynamics of ecosystems. Its evolution as a scientific discipline in recent decades has been closely associated with the pioneer work of Jay W. Forrester in the analysis of the dynamics of systems (e.g., Forrester, 1968) and the increase in the performance of computers. Ecological models have been developed for different types of ecosystems, such as wildlife populations, watersheds, natural or man-made forests, marshes or urban areas. Ecosystems are very complex entities. Investigating ecosystem dynamics requires the organization and assimilation of many details and data. As a consequence, the development of theories and a better understanding of the role of the factors and processes that govern these dynamics must rely on the principles of ecological modelling (Bravo de la Parra and Poggiale, 2005). Even though ecological models are considered as powerful research tools (e.g., Johnsen et al., 2001; Jørgensen, 2001), their use is growing in importance for the management of natural resources (Johnsen et al., 2001; Walters and Martell, 2004) and the prediction of the effects of disturbances, such as global change (e.g., Peng and Apps, 1998; Luckai and Larocque, 2002). Recent examples of models used as decision support tools can be found in Fohrer et al. (2001) for the planning of land use in the hilly midlands of Hesse, Germany, or DeAngelis et al. (2004) for the regional planning of water resources in southwestern Florida, USA. Despite all these achievements, there is an increasing need to better integrate the research component of ecological modelling and the application of different types of ecological models to address increasingly complex issues on the management of natural resources. The theme of this conference was chosen explicitly to provide a forum for presenting recent advances in the development of ecological models that can be used to support the decision-making process in the management of natural resources. This conference brought together modellers
involved in the development of different types of models. All the papers in this special issue dealt with current issues or problems that have implications for the management of different types of natural resources, ranging from animal populations to water quality modelling. There were papers on population dynamics that focused on the description of a cellular automaton model to predict species invasions (Arii and Parrott), the development of an epidemiology model (Pal et al.), the toxicity response in salmon species (Spromberg and Meador) and the use of Mayfield Markov chain formulation to deal with uncertainty in the estimation of nest survival (Etterson and Bennett). The integration of ecosystem modeling in geographic information systems was undertaken for the spatio-temporal analysis of pollution in urban areas ˇ ıcek ˇ et al.) and the prediction of regional haze from wild(Matej´ land fires (McKenzie et al.). Several papers dealt with issues related to freshwater management, including water quality monitoring, phytoplankton growth, sulfur dynamics in vegetated and non-vegetated sediments and nitrate release from ocher pellets (Park et al., Na and Park, Choi et al., Na et al.). Three papers focused on the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. For forest ecosystems, the calibration and validation of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) model for Ontario’s main forest types (Lacerte et al.) and the use of long-term historical data for the calibration of a succession model (Larocque et al.) were described. The potential effects of climate change in terrestrial ecosystems in China were simulated using two scenarios of climate change (Yue et al.).
Acknowledgements We would like to express our gratitude to all the participants at the conference and the authors who spent considerable time in the preparation of manuscripts. The contribution of anonymous reviewers who peer reviewed the manuscripts was greatly appreciated. Sincere thanks are also extended to
218
e c o l o g i c a l m o d e l l i n g 1 9 9 ( 2 0 0 6 ) 217–218
Ms. Barbara Chuun, professional editor at Public Works and Government Services Canada, and Ms. Isabelle Lamarre, professional editor at Natural Resources Canada, for their assistance in the editing of the manuscripts. On behalf of all the authors, we also thank Dr. S.E. Jørgensen, Editor-in-chief of Ecological Modelling, for the support he provided for this special issue in Ecological Modelling.
references
Bravo de la Parra, R., Poggiale, J.-C., 2005. Theoretical ecology and mathematical modelling: problems and methods. Ecol. Model. 188, 1–2. DeAngelis, D.L., Pearlstine, L., Mazzotti, F.J., Barnes, T., Duever, M., Starnes, J., 2004. Spatial decision support systems for landscape ecological evaluations in the southwest Florida feasibility study. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Fact Sheet 2004–3113. Fohrer, N., Eckhardt, K., Haverkamp, S., Grede, H.-G., 2001. Applying the SWAT model as a decision support tool for land use concepts in peripheral regions in Germany. In: Stott, D.E., Mohtar, R.H., Steinhardt, G.C. (Eds.), Sustaining the global farm. 10th International Soil Conservation Organization Meeting held May 24–29, 1999. Purdue University and the USDA-ARS National Soil Laboratory, pp. 994– 999. Forrester, J.W., 1968. Principles of Systems. Wright Allen Press. Johnsen, K., Samuelson, L., Teskey, R., McNulty, S., Fox, T., 2001. Process models as tools in forestry research and management. For. Sci. 47, 2–8. Jørgensen, S.E., 2001. Fundamentals of Ecological Modelling, third ed. Elsevier, Amsterdam. Luckai, N., Larocque, G.R., 2002. Challenges in the application of existing process-based models to predict the effect of climate change on C pools in forest ecosystems. Clim. Change 55, 39–60.
Peng, C.H., Apps, M.J., 1998. Simulating carbon dynamics along the boreal forest transect case study (BFTCS) in central Canada. 2. Sensitivity to climate change. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 12, 393–402. Walters, C.J., Martell, S.J.D., 2004. Fisheries Ecology and Management. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Guy R. Larocque ∗ Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du PE.P.S., P.O. Box 10380, Stn. Sainte-Foy Quebec, QC, G1V 4C7, Canada Dave A. Mauriello PMB 255, 550 M Ritchie Highway, Severna Park, MD 21146, USA Richard A. Park Eco Modelling, Diamondhead, MS 39525, USA Edward J. Rykiel Jr. P.O. Box 1772, Richland, WA 99352, USA ∗ Corresponding
author. Tel.: 418 648 5791; fax: 418 648 5849. E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected] (G.R. Larocque), [email protected] (D.A. Mauriello), [email protected] (R.A. Park), [email protected] (E.J. Rykiel Jr.) 0304-3800/$ – see front matter Crown Copyright © 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.05.006 Published on line 21 July 2006
available at www.sciencedirect.com
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodel
Preface
Ecological Models as Decision Tools in the 21st Century Proceedings of a conference organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) in Quebec, Canada, August 22–24, 2004
Ecological modelling uses concepts in mathematics, systems analysis and computer programming to simulate the dynamics of ecosystems. Its evolution as a scientific discipline in recent decades has been closely associated with the pioneer work of Jay W. Forrester in the analysis of the dynamics of systems (e.g., Forrester, 1968) and the increase in the performance of computers. Ecological models have been developed for different types of ecosystems, such as wildlife populations, watersheds, natural or man-made forests, marshes or urban areas. Ecosystems are very complex entities. Investigating ecosystem dynamics requires the organization and assimilation of many details and data. As a consequence, the development of theories and a better understanding of the role of the factors and processes that govern these dynamics must rely on the principles of ecological modelling (Bravo de la Parra and Poggiale, 2005). Even though ecological models are considered as powerful research tools (e.g., Johnsen et al., 2001; Jørgensen, 2001), their use is growing in importance for the management of natural resources (Johnsen et al., 2001; Walters and Martell, 2004) and the prediction of the effects of disturbances, such as global change (e.g., Peng and Apps, 1998; Luckai and Larocque, 2002). Recent examples of models used as decision support tools can be found in Fohrer et al. (2001) for the planning of land use in the hilly midlands of Hesse, Germany, or DeAngelis et al. (2004) for the regional planning of water resources in southwestern Florida, USA. Despite all these achievements, there is an increasing need to better integrate the research component of ecological modelling and the application of different types of ecological models to address increasingly complex issues on the management of natural resources. The theme of this conference was chosen explicitly to provide a forum for presenting recent advances in the development of ecological models that can be used to support the decision-making process in the management of natural resources. This conference brought together modellers
involved in the development of different types of models. All the papers in this special issue dealt with current issues or problems that have implications for the management of different types of natural resources, ranging from animal populations to water quality modelling. There were papers on population dynamics that focused on the description of a cellular automaton model to predict species invasions (Arii and Parrott), the development of an epidemiology model (Pal et al.), the toxicity response in salmon species (Spromberg and Meador) and the use of Mayfield Markov chain formulation to deal with uncertainty in the estimation of nest survival (Etterson and Bennett). The integration of ecosystem modeling in geographic information systems was undertaken for the spatio-temporal analysis of pollution in urban areas ˇ ıcek ˇ et al.) and the prediction of regional haze from wild(Matej´ land fires (McKenzie et al.). Several papers dealt with issues related to freshwater management, including water quality monitoring, phytoplankton growth, sulfur dynamics in vegetated and non-vegetated sediments and nitrate release from ocher pellets (Park et al., Na and Park, Choi et al., Na et al.). Three papers focused on the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. For forest ecosystems, the calibration and validation of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) model for Ontario’s main forest types (Lacerte et al.) and the use of long-term historical data for the calibration of a succession model (Larocque et al.) were described. The potential effects of climate change in terrestrial ecosystems in China were simulated using two scenarios of climate change (Yue et al.).
Acknowledgements We would like to express our gratitude to all the participants at the conference and the authors who spent considerable time in the preparation of manuscripts. The contribution of anonymous reviewers who peer reviewed the manuscripts was greatly appreciated. Sincere thanks are also extended to
218
e c o l o g i c a l m o d e l l i n g 1 9 9 ( 2 0 0 6 ) 217–218
Ms. Barbara Chuun, professional editor at Public Works and Government Services Canada, and Ms. Isabelle Lamarre, professional editor at Natural Resources Canada, for their assistance in the editing of the manuscripts. On behalf of all the authors, we also thank Dr. S.E. Jørgensen, Editor-in-chief of Ecological Modelling, for the support he provided for this special issue in Ecological Modelling.
references
Bravo de la Parra, R., Poggiale, J.-C., 2005. Theoretical ecology and mathematical modelling: problems and methods. Ecol. Model. 188, 1–2. DeAngelis, D.L., Pearlstine, L., Mazzotti, F.J., Barnes, T., Duever, M., Starnes, J., 2004. Spatial decision support systems for landscape ecological evaluations in the southwest Florida feasibility study. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Fact Sheet 2004–3113. Fohrer, N., Eckhardt, K., Haverkamp, S., Grede, H.-G., 2001. Applying the SWAT model as a decision support tool for land use concepts in peripheral regions in Germany. In: Stott, D.E., Mohtar, R.H., Steinhardt, G.C. (Eds.), Sustaining the global farm. 10th International Soil Conservation Organization Meeting held May 24–29, 1999. Purdue University and the USDA-ARS National Soil Laboratory, pp. 994– 999. Forrester, J.W., 1968. Principles of Systems. Wright Allen Press. Johnsen, K., Samuelson, L., Teskey, R., McNulty, S., Fox, T., 2001. Process models as tools in forestry research and management. For. Sci. 47, 2–8. Jørgensen, S.E., 2001. Fundamentals of Ecological Modelling, third ed. Elsevier, Amsterdam. Luckai, N., Larocque, G.R., 2002. Challenges in the application of existing process-based models to predict the effect of climate change on C pools in forest ecosystems. Clim. Change 55, 39–60.
Peng, C.H., Apps, M.J., 1998. Simulating carbon dynamics along the boreal forest transect case study (BFTCS) in central Canada. 2. Sensitivity to climate change. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 12, 393–402. Walters, C.J., Martell, S.J.D., 2004. Fisheries Ecology and Management. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Guy R. Larocque ∗ Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du PE.P.S., P.O. Box 10380, Stn. Sainte-Foy Quebec, QC, G1V 4C7, Canada Dave A. Mauriello PMB 255, 550 M Ritchie Highway, Severna Park, MD 21146, USA Richard A. Park Eco Modelling, Diamondhead, MS 39525, USA Edward J. Rykiel Jr. P.O. Box 1772, Richland, WA 99352, USA ∗ Corresponding
author. Tel.: 418 648 5791; fax: 418 648 5849. E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected] (G.R. Larocque), [email protected] (D.A. Mauriello), [email protected] (R.A. Park), [email protected] (E.J. Rykiel Jr.) 0304-3800/$ – see front matter Crown Copyright © 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.05.006 Published on line 21 July 2006