Economic determinants of academic failure and school desertion in the Guatemala highlands

Economrcs of Education Review, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 59-70,1993. Prmtedin Great Britain.

0272-7757/93 $6.00 + 0.00 @ 1993 Pergamon Press Ltd

Economic Determinants of Academic Failure and School Desertion in the Guatemala Highlands MANUEL J. CARVAJAL, F. KAY MORRIS and LILLIAN M. DAVENPORT Department

of Economics,

Florida International University, 33199, U.S.A.

University Park Campus, Miami, FL

Guatemala’s four major indigenous (i.e. ethnic) groups provide the setting for a model explaining elementary schooling discontinuity in terms of economic characteristics that might affect

Abstract -

availability and quality of teaching facilities, perceptions of curriculum relevance, expectations of longterm gains and enhancement of employment alternatives through formal education, and children’s opportunity cost. Least-squares coefficients and elasticities are estimated separately for academic failure and school abandonment for each indigenous group. The levels of statistical significance show that the model explains academic failure better than it explains school desertion. These levels differ among groups for the seven variables in the model, thus implying that a national indigenous policy that fails to incorporate in its structure features unique to each group may be inadequate.

its obvious consumer benefits, economists often treat individual schooling as a rational investment proposition subject to institutional availability, income and, occasionally, time constraints (Behrman and Wolfe, 1987; Cain, 1977; Chernichovsky, 1985; Jamison and Lockheed, 1987; Kodde and Ritzen, 1988; Levy, 1985; Rosenzweig and Evenson, 1977; Wolfe and Behrman, 1984). Aggregate schooling is determined by the interaction of supply and demand considerations. School supply factors include locational differentials of, and accessibility to, teachers and teaching facilities, relevance of curricula and, in the case of the Guatemala highlands, ethnic/language diversity. The supply function embodying these considerations is upward-sloping because of increasing marginal costs - in rural areas, for example, where population is, by definition, dispersed, the cost per student within an effective radius of influence is higher than in an urban milieu, where population is more concentrated (Khan, 1987); similarly, the cost of supplying teachers who speak autochthonous languages and materials suitable to fulfilling the needs of specific ethnic groups is higher than training and curriculum-development costs in Spanish (Balderston, 1984). NOTWITHSTANDING

Demand for schooling is shaped partly by expectations of long-term gains in income and enhanced employment opportunities. Since most parents exercise direct control over their children during elementary education years, parents’ perceptions and aspirations, in turn influenced by their own schooling attainment, are most important; they will demand formal education for their offspring to the extent that they believe their children will be better off by attending school. Also contributing to the configuration of the demand function are both direct and indirect costs of schooling. Direct costs refer to out-of-pocket expense requirements which compete with other desired goods and services for the scarce financial resources of the family. Indirect or opportunity costs, perhaps more important in magnitude than out-of-pocket expenditures (Carnoy, 1967), deal with forgone economic contributions to the household, either in the form of cash labor or working at home, because of attending school and related activities. In rural areas of the Third World, where children become agents of production at a very early age (Cain, 1977; Levy, 1985), opportunity cost considerations are especially relevant. Of course, assessing schooling for a country or region must transcend mere formulations of func-

[Manuscript received 25 July 1990; revision accepted for publication 26 March 1992.1 59

60

Economics of Education Review

tional relationships, whether supply or demand. It involves the far more intricate task of analysing affinity between a complex set of institutions which form the educational system, on the one hand and, on the other, an even more complex structure called society, with all its values, preferences and cultural segmentation. These two bodies, the educational system and society, are not static but constantly evolving, influencing each other and changing the ways in which people absorb new ideas and adapt to new and often unforeseen conditions. This study explores, from an economic perspective, the adequacy (or lack thereof) of the elementary school system in the rural, indigenous highlands of Guatemala. It focuses separately on academic failure and school abandonment, the two basic indicators of unsuccessful performance, in testing and estimating the impact of a set of determining variables. Besides its concentration on the relatively unresearched Guatemala highlands, the study differs from similar efforts in at least four basic aspects. First, it measures performance using flow or dynamic (i.e. annual failure and drop-out rates) rather than stock or static (i.e. years of schooling) indicators, which removes the unwanted effect of unidentified variables through time. Second, it differentiates between failure and desertion, thus increasing precision in recognizing the true operating mechanisms of the determining variables. Third, it estimates elasticities or measures of responsiveness of failure and desertion to changes in each of the determining variables. Finally, it allows for ethnic diversity by disaggregating the analysis for the four major indigenous groups Cakchiquel, K’ekchi, Mam and Quiche. The basic hypothesis with respect to this fourth feature is that the nature and/or magnitude of the effect on failure/ abandonment of the determining variables may not be the same for all four groups; in other words, diverse ethnic groups may react differently to identical stimuli, implying that policies which respond to the needs of one type of community may not be suitable for other community types. IMPORTANCE

OF ETHNICITY

Ethnicity in Guatemala plays a crucial role in the determination of economic and social relations. The dichotomy between Hispanics or Hispanicized, Spanish-speaking ladinos and Mayan-speaking Indians pervades virtually every facet of life. As

specific instances, consider that politics take place in cities, where ladinos concentrate, while Indians live primarily in the countryside; ladinos exhibit geographical mobility and are interested in escalating the socioeconomic ladder as a sign of progress, while Indians tend to view striving and competition as unnecessary, practice endogamy and adhere to traditional values; and, most significantly, Indians are viewed by ladinos as primitive, inferior beings who need civilizing (Nyrop, 1984; Stephen and Wearne, 1984). Throughout four centuries progress and national unity have meant continuous, albeit mostly unsuccessful, attempts to assimilate Indians into the dominant Hispanic culture, and they very much remain objects of government policies rather than participants in the decision-making process. After losing bloody battles first with the Spanish conquistadores, and subsequently with creole armies, the Maya retreated into passive resistance and sought refuge in isolated communities protected geographically by rugged, mountainous terrain. Living in these communities hostility to outsiders has emerged as a natural response to their patent disadvantage in dealing with the larger society. As a safeguard against integrative national political and economic forces, each community has maintained its own identity through style of dress, crafts and language. The ethnic picture is further complicated by the fact that around 30 distinctly different Mayan languages are spoken in the highlands by anywhere from 45% to 70% of the country’s total population (England, 1983; Suarez, 1983). Language diversity is a sign of much deeper cultural differences which are likely to encompass supply of school facilities as well as demand for formal education. Of the 30 ethnic groups, four - Cakchiquel, K’ekchi, Mam and Quiche - are considered as major, together comprising more than three-quarters of the indigenous population. Their geographical distribution is presented in Map 1. Although in principle elementary schooling is compulsory in Guatemala, in practice less than half of rural (i.e. Indian) children actually attend school (Balderston, 1984). Several explanations have been suggested, including demand for their labor at home (i.e. with the milpa, weaving or caring for younger children) or as wage earners in nearby farms; school schedules incompatible with work activities; absenteeism and harsh treatment by poor-quality teachers

61

Academic Failure and School Desertion

Mexico

Guatemala

City

Scale

(km) I 100

El

Pociflc

Solvodor

ocean

q

Cakchlquel

Map 1. Major

q

ethnic

Kekchi

regions

and/or their inability to speak the autochthonous language; lack of interest in ladino, urban-oriented curricula perceived as symbols ~of centuries of oppression; and altogether lack of schools and teaching facilities. Whatever the reason(s), differentials are notable: Literacy among Indians (18%) is less than half the level among ladinos (37%) (World Bank, 1978). Within the indigenous segment there are sizeable differences, too. For example, Nyrop (1984) reports that the literacy rate of the Quiche (30%) is three times higher than it is for the K’ekchi, thus supporting the basic hypothesis that disparities in the nature and correlates of schooling discontinuity require specific policies for specific communities.

DATA BASE

The data used in this study emerge from a marriage between 1986 elementary school regis-

q

Mam

q

of the Guatemala

Ouiche

highlands.

tration records for 297 highland communities served by the Programa National de Educacih Bilingiie (PRONEBI) and an extensive 1986 socioeconomic survey, developed by a University of New Mexico team, which includes the same communities - 55 Cakchiquel, 92 K’ekchi, 59 Mam and 91 Quiche. The data base is rather homogeneous insofar as in each site there is an accessible rural school staffed by more than one teacher, containing facilities through at least fourth grade, and where some component of bilingual Spanish-Mayan education is provided. A word of caution is warranted at this early stage. Neither the University of New Mexico survey nor school registration records were developed for the purposes of this paper. Consequently, conceptualization of some of the original variables is far from ideal for the approach used here. For example, the variables are categorical, much more applicable to sociological/anthropological research than for studying economic determinants and ethnic differentials in the demand for schooling.

62

Economics of Education Review

In spite of this obvious shortcoming, the data have been used as an empirical base because of their uniformity and uniqueness. (The alternatives would have been either to develop more suitable indicators by means of an extensive survey in the Guatemalan highlands, an economically unreasonable proposition from an academic perspective, or do nothing.) Thus, utilization of the data base in this study reflects an implicit preference for estimating the impact of socioeconomic forces on schooling discontinuity, albeit somewhat crudely, rather than remain altogether ignorant for fear of criticism of flaws in methodology. For each site, 19860985 academic failure and school desertion rates, as well as their combined schooling discontinuity rate, are calculated from registration records. The academic failure rate refers to the percentage of students not promoted to the next grade, that is, required by the school to repeat or retake a grade, while the school desertion rate reflects the decision, on the part of the children and/or their parents, not to attend school anymore for a number of possible reasons, including a perceived threat of imminent failure and a very high opportunity cost. The sum of the academic failure and school desertion rates, called here the combined school discontinuity rate, measures the inadequacy of the elementary school system of the Guatemalan indigenous highlands in promoting its students to the next higher, available grade, because of either student inability to demonstrate required progress or his/her ultimate withdrawal from the system. The average academic failure, school desertion and combined schooling discontinuity rates by ethnic group, along with their respective standard deviations, are presented in Table 1. The data show Table 1. Estimated means registration

Number of observations Schooling discontinuity A~~~~~?~i?tre Sc!!ZTILZZLn (percentage)

and standard deviations by ethnic group of selected variables derived from records in PRONEBI schools and F values of a one-way ANOVA model

rate

rate

Ethnic K’ekchi

Quiche

92 46.0 0;:;)

59 30.4

91 30.9 (9.8) 21.4

(;.;)

i;.;)

(;;;)

(;I;)

(7:7)

(10:7)

(4.9)

(7.4)

55 30.5

g.;)

Z)

(1987)

Estadistica

F

ratio

s4.9* 22.5* 28.1*

rate

*F ratio is statistically significant at the 99% level. Source: Programa National de Education Bilingtie PRONEBI: 1986. Guatemala.

1986 student

group Mam

Cakchiquel

Variable

that aggregate schooling discontinuity is virtually identical for the Cakchiquel, Mam and Quiche groups, while the K’ekchi exhibit a substantially higher rate, of the order 50% higher. A closer examination reveals, however, concealed variations behind the apparent homogeneity of the first three groups. On average, Mam villages experience a higher rate of academic failure, but a lower school drop-out rate, than do Cakchiquel and Quiche communities. The results of a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) model using the four ethnic groups as treatments (see F values in Table 1) indicate statistically significant differences in both failure and desertion rates among the K’ekchi, Mam and CakchiquellQuichC; no significant differences are detected between Cakchiquel and Quiche sites. Some interesting differences also exist in the distribution by ethnic group of other variables postulated to influence failure and drop-out rates (see Table 2). One of these variables is the number of dwellings in the community, measured along a l8 scale as follows: 1 for less than 25 dwellings; 2 for 25-50 dwellings; 3 for 51-100 dwellings; 4 for lOl150 dwellings; 5 for 151-200 dwellings; 6 for 201300 dwellings; 7 for 301-500 dwellings; and 8 for more than 500 dwellings. (This index should not be interpreted as a linear progression of village size; it merely reflects positive variations in the number of inhabitants.) Village size has been used in similar studies as a proxy for availability and quality of teaching facilities (Campbell and Abbot, 1976; Chernichovsky, 1985); these studies report that children of larger villages experience lower failure and desertion rates relative to children of smaller villages because their schools are better equipped with teachers at various

de la Evaluation

Final de 10s Alumnos

de1

Academic Failure and School Desertion

63

Table 2. Estimated means and standard deviations by ethnic group of selected variables postulated to influence academic failure and school drop-out rates, and F values of a one-way ANOVA model

Variable Number of observations Village size Bilingualism Accessibility Distance Child participation Nearby farms Migration

Cakchiquel 55 4.31 (1.83) 1.96 (0.79) 5.22 (1.73) 2.13 (1.19) 0.67 (1.01) 3.67 (1.13) 0.65 (0.96)

Ethnic group K’ekchi Mam 92 4.03 W;) (0.83) 3.59 (1.93) 3.04 (1.05) 0.82 (1.14) 4.75 (0.75) 0.86 (1.15)

59 3.63 (;:;;)

Quiche 91 4.35 (1.69) 2.49 (0.73) 4.18 (2;;)

F ratio

1.s.d.

2.32

0.203

19.22*

0.079

30.84*

0.186

9.69*

0.130

66.37*

0.112

54.36%

0.107

59.87*

0.114

(1.44)

*F ratio is statrstically significant at the 99% level.

levels and materials that facilitate learning. Furthermore, task differentiation and specialization of labor, which provide the ideological foundation for the existing Western-oriented curriculum and influence perception of benefits derived from formal education, are more likely to become evident in larger than in smaller villages. Although the F ratio of a one-way ANOVA test using ethnic groups as treatments lacks statistical significance at the 95% probability level, a least significant difference (1.s.d.) comparison of means shows that, on average, Quiche and Cakchiquel villages are virtually identical in size but significantly larger than K’ekchi or Mam, the latter two also being significantly different from each other, all at the 95% probability level. In other words, village size, on the one hand, and failure/desertion rates, on the other hand, seem to vary inversely with each other in an inter-ethnic group comparison. Another variable which persumably affects elementary schooling discontinuity in a community is the level of Spanish-Mayan bilingualism, that is, the ability to understand and communicate in Spanish. This is measured along a 1-4 scale, assigning a value of 1 to primarily Mayan monolingual villages; a value of 2 to villages in which some Spanish is spoken; a value of 3 to moderately bilingual communities; and a value of 4 to communities where Spanish is commonly spoken along with the Indian language. More bilingualism is construed in this study as indicative of not only

ability to understand the curriculum but also appreciate better the long-term benefits of formal education. Therefore, a higher index of bilingualism is expected to be associated with less academic failure and school abandonment. This expectation generally conforms to reality as the lowest levels of bilingualism and highest schooling discontinuity rates are recorded for the K’ekchi, while the Quiche experience the highest bilingualism index and the lowest academic failure rates. The bilingualism index means for the four ethnic groups are significantly different from one another at the 95% probability level. A third variable whose effect on schooling is explored in this paper is ease of accessibility to the community during the dry season (i.e. summer months). A scale of 1-6 is used, with a value of 1 denoting on-foot accessibility only; 2 showing accessibility on horseback; 3 on a motorcycle; 4 in a double transmission vehicle; 5 in a regular car; and 6 indicating accessibility by truck. (This scale could be construed as implying that villages with accessibility by truck are twice as accessible as those that can be approached only in a motorcycle, or three times as accessible as those that can be reached only on horseback; its intent, however, is far less ambitious, as it merely seeks to approximate an index which records various levels of intensity for this variable.) More accessibility is interpreted as reflective of an environment characterized by attitudinal modernity compatible with more schooling, and so it is antici-

64

Economics of Education Reliew

pated to exert a negative effect on both failure and desertion. An inter-ethnic comparison of this indicator shows Cakchiquel villages with the greatest accessibility, followed, in order, by the Quiche and the K’ekchi; on average, Mam sites are the least accessible. Although there is no clear inter-ethnic association trend between schooling discontinuity and land accessibility, the accessibility differences among all four types of communities are statistically significant. The distance between a community and a central location such as the county seat, which, like accessibility, also is a measure of relative isolation, may serve to explore the influence of contact with the outside world on decisions to seek outsidevillage employment and other opportunities for which more formal education is a decisive advantage. Distance is measured in this study using discrete values ranging from 0 to 5: a value of 0 is assigned if the community is located in the county seat; 1 if it is up to 5 km away from the county seat; 2 if it is more than 5 but not more than 10 km from the county seat; 3 if the distance from the county seat is more than 10 but not more than 20 km; 4 if the village is more than 20 but not more than 40 km from the county seat; and 5 if the distance from the county seat is more than 40 km. (The same limitations of the village size variable apply here.) The mean distance scores are significantly different for all four ethnic groups, the K’ekchi and Quiche exhibiting substantially more isolation than the Cakchiquel and Mam. The latter two groups of communities also record, on average, fewer dropouts than the Quiche and especially the K’ekchi, thus lending support to the contention that greater contact with the larger society acts as a deterrent to abandoning school. The other three variables whose effects on schooling discontinuity are probed here measure various aspects of children’s opportunity cost. The time spent in school and related activities commands a price if students could be alternatively working for cash wages or doing useful work at home. The preponderantly rural nature of the four types of communities increases this shadow price (Stephen and Wearne, 1984). The first of the opportunity cost proxies sizes up the degree of child participation in agriculture using five levels: a value of 0 indicates no participation whatsoever; 1 little participation; 2 some participation; 3 moderate participation; and 4 shows

frequent participation. Inter-ethnic disparities, statistically significant for all four groups, are considerable, as Mam children labor in agriculture twice as often as do Quiche children and roughly four times more often than do their Cakchiquel and K’ekchi counterparts. These disparities, however, do not accord with the schooling discontinuity differentials discussed earlier. For example, in spite of the much higher child participation rate in agricultural activities relative to the other three groups, the Mam experience the lowest drop-out rates, whereas the K’ekchi register much greater incidences of both academic failure and school abandonment, even when their children reportedly seldom work in the fields. Another proxy for children’s foregone contribution to household income because of school attendance is the number of nearby farms which pay cash income for labor, presumably including children’s labor. According to Levy (1985), land size and accessibility to cash-wage income are complementary to child labor; insofar as labor and schooling compete for a finite stock of time, the existence of such farms is expected to exert a positive influence on academic failure and school desertion. The empirical evidence seems to support this expectation, as the K’ekchi, with their very high discontinuity rates, also show the greatest concentration of neighboring cash-wage farms; similarly, the Quiche, with the fewest worker-hiring farms, record, on average, the lowest level of academic failure. The scale for the number of nearby farms has a maximum value of five. The last of the opportunity cost variables analysed in this study pertains to seasonal migration. In Guatemala it is not uncommon for men from the highlands to travel to coastal areas, sometimes accompanied by members of their families, and work during planting and harvesting in large land holdings for cash income (England, 1983). To the extent that children participate in such travel, either as workers or companions, seasonal migration is hypothesized to exert different demands in the form of schooling discontinuity and contribute to higher failure and desertion rates. Seasonality is measured along a O-4 integer scale: a value of 0 represents less than 10% of the population going away to work in the coastal areas; 1 shows lo-25%; 2 indicates 26 50%; 3 denotes 51-70%; and 4 stands for more than 70%. The evidence points to quite a bit more population movement by the Mam and Quiche than by the Cakchiquel and K’ekchi, all four mean values

Academic Failure and Schooi Desertion

being significantly different from one another. While these differentials do not vary systematically with either failure or drop-out incidence, the scores for migration are very similar to the values recorded for child participation in agriculture.

65

and

EMPIRICAL MODEL OF SCHOOLING DISCONTINUITY A, is the

The main question this paper addresses is the degree to which academic failure and school abandonment, the two major expressions of unsuccessful performance in the Guatemalan elementary school system in the predominantly indigenous populated highlands, respond to economic characteristics that might effect availability and quality of teaching facilities, perceptions of curriculum relevance, expectations of long-term income gains and enhancement of employment alternatives through formal education, and children’s opportunity cost. The paper also seeks to ascertain whether the effect on academic failure and school abandonment of these characteristics is homogeneous among the four major indigenous groups Cakchiquel, K’ekchi, Mam and Quiche or significant diversity exists that warrants unique policies for each group. This section presents and discusses least-squares estimates of two empirical models of schooling discontinuity - one probing academic failure, the other exploring school desertion - using data from 297 communities served by PRONEBI with bilingual Spanish-Mayan schools. Of the 297 observations, 55 are Cakchiquel, 92 are K’ekchi, 59 are Mam and 91 are Quiche. Within the limitations of available Guatemalan data, the empirical models tested here interpret academic failure rates and school drop-out rates as linear/quadratic functions of seven independent variables, which are discussed in the previous section: village size, degree of bilingualism, ease of accessibility during the dry season, distance to the county seat, child participation in ag~culture, presence of nearby farms which pay cash income for labor, and incidence of seasonal migration. That is,

1985-1986 academic failure rate (i.e. percentage of students not promoted to the next grade) of elementary school students in the jth community of the ith ethnic group; D,, is the 1985-1986 school desertion rate (i.e. percentage of students not returning the following year) of elementary school students in the jth community of the ith ethnic group; SJ, is a variable measuring, along a l-8 discrete scale, the number of dwellings in the jth community of the ith ethnic group; B, is a variable measuring, along a l-4 discrete scale, the degree of bilingualism in the jth community of the ith ethnic group; Cil is a variable measuring, along a 1-6 discrete scale, the accessibility by land during the dry season to the jth community of the ith ethnic group ; Tl, is a variable measuring, along a O-5 discrete scale, the distance between the jth community of the ith ethnic group and its county seat; P,, is a variable measuring, along a O-4 discrete scaIe, participation in agriculture of children living in the jth community of the ith ethnic group; iV[, is the number (maximum of 5) of large farms hiring workers’ for cash wages near-the jth community of the ith ethnic group; is a variable measuring, along a O-4 discrete scale, the percentage of the jth community in the ith ethnic group migrating seasonally to work in coastal area plantations; and V>jare normally, independently distributed stochastic disturbance terms of the academic failure and school desertion equations, respectively; Tl,, . . . , 77t and S,,, . . . , ST, are the leastsquares coefficients of the linear and quadratic terms, respectively, for the ith ethnic group in the academic failure equation; . . . , qr and rrlr, . . . , 9~7,are the least-squares coefficients of the linear and quadratic terms,

66

Economics of Educatiott Reriew

respectively, for the ith ethnic group in the school desertion equation; and where i = 1 for the Cakchiquel, i = 2 for the K’ekchi, i = 3 for the Mam and i = 4 for the Quichk; and j= 1,. . . , j,, where il = 55, jZ = 92, j3 = 59 and j4 = 91. It is assumed that all independent variables in the model are predetermined, i.e. the values of the village size, bilingualism, isolation and opportunity cost variables depend upon neither academic failure nor school drop-out rates. Empirical estimates for the least-squares coefficients and their standard errors are reported in Table 3 for the academic failure equation and in Table 4 for the school abandonment equation. In addition, failure and abandonment elasticities for each independent variTable 3. Estimated

values

of least-squares coefficients, ethnic group, using academic

able, computed at the mean values, are shown in Tables 5 and 6, respectively. Judging by the statistical significance of the coefficients, village size seems to influence both academic failure and drop-out rates among the K’ekchi and QuichC and school desertion among the Cakchiquel. The nature of the influence, however, is contrary to what has been anticipated; that is, mostly positive instead of negative elasticities. It appears that in K’ekchi and QuichC communities greater size is conducive to more grade repetition and drop-outs, perhaps by virtue of teachers demanding more from their students or because of a broader spectrum of activities competing for children’s time. Both the levels of statistical significance and the elasticity values of the K’ekchi and

standard errors (in parentheses), and levels of significance failure rate as the dependent variable

by

Ethnic group Independent Village

Term

variable

size

Cakchiquel -~ 1.55

Linear

w&) Quadratic Linear

Bilingualism

Quadratic Linear

Accessibility

Quadratic Linear

Distance

Quadratic Linear

Child participation

Quadratic Nearby

Linear

farms

Quadratic Linear

Migration

Quadratic F RZ

*Statistically tstatistically $ Statistically BStatistically

significant significant significant significant

at at at at

the the the the

80% 90% 95% 99%

probability probability probability probability

(0.23) -4.86* (3.26) 1.51? (0.80) 6.01$ (3.01) -0.969 (0.43) 9.019 (2.24) -1.17§ (0.40) 1.35 (1.52) -0.29’ (0.20) -0.66 (1.48) 0.14 (0.12) 2.07t (1.23) -0.19* (0.12) 52.39 0.88 level. level. level. level.

K’ekchi

Mam

10.106 (3.07) -1.136 (0.32) -2.23

1.77 (2.13) -0.20 w:)

(;.;:’ (1:52) 4.00* (2.21) -0.5s*

(8.91) -2.66” (1.81) 0.51 (5.05) -0.07

(;:J;)

W;2)

(4.39) -0.58 (0.83) 2.55$ (1.20) -1.16 (1.15) 1.85§ (0.65) -0.036 (0.01) -0.52

(6.72) -0.89

(;.;;) (0: 13) 85.04 0.87

($ (6.69) -1.23 (1.20) 5.65% (3.94) -0.78* (0.60) -3.57* @&) (0.21) 26.39 0.79

Quiche 3.90t (2.32) -0.41t (0.23) 9.79$ (4.12) -1.96$ (;:;;) (2.57) -0.40 (0.37) 0.32 (3.05) 0.11 (0.56) 0.45 (1.78) -0.33 (0.44) -0.73 w;) (0.21) -0.34 (i:$) (0.08) 47.68 0.79

Academic Failure and School Desertion Table 4. Estimated

Independent Village

values

of least-squares coefficients, standard errors (in parentheses), and levels of significance ethnic group, using school desertion rate as the dependent variable

variable

Term

size

Linear

Cakchiquel -6.51* (;.~;)

Quadratic Bilingualism

Linear Quadratic Linear

Accessibility

Quadratic Distance

Linear Quadratic

Child participation

(0:46) 11.33t (6.59) -2.67t (1.62) 4.05* (3.09) -0.60 (0.88) -2.95 (4.53) 0.42 (Y:$

Linear Quadratic

Nearby

farms

Linear

(3.08) -0.41 (0.41) 1.66 (;.~;)

Quadratic Migration

Linear Quadratic

(0:24) 1.88 (2.49) -0.18 (8.~3

F R2 *Statistically t Statistically j: Statistically § Statistically

0:39 significant significant significant significant

67

at at at at

the the the the

80% 90% 95% 99%

probability probability .probability probability

Ethnic K’ekchf 7.07t (3.69) -0.55* w;)

group Mam -0.23 (i.;;) (;:;:)

(7.51) -1.07*

(4: 10) -0.17

$8;)

(0.84) -5.90$ (2.32) 1.02s (0.43) 0.11

(2:66) -0.16 (;:;t$ (5.27) -1.48* (1.00) -2.70 (5.05) 0.61 (1.38) -1.71% (0.78) 0.03$ (0.01) -1.04 (1.78) 0.08 (0.16) 18.36 0.55

by

(:.;z) ($if’

Quiche 3.56* (2.31) -0.32* (0.23) 0.86 (4.11) -0.21$ (0.09) -0.85 w;) (0.37) 1.01 (3.04) -0.04 (0.56) -1.05

(3:08) -0.24 (0.55) 3.33* (1.81) -0.53*

(i.i:’

(;.:;i

(0.21) 0.10 (0.86) -0.03 (0.08) 10.70 0.42

(1:21) -0.19$

(&) (A:;;)

level. level. level. level.

Quiche suggest that the effect of village size on school desertion is more important than its effect on academic failure. The bilingualism variable acts as expected in most cases where it is statistically significant in either its linear or quadratic component. The only instances lacking significance are the K’ekchi for academic failure and the Mam for school desertion. As with relevant village size coefficients, the signs of the Cakchiquel elasticities are opposite to K’ekchi and Quiche. In general, elasticity values are low, implying a rather modest influence of bilingualism, as measured in this study, on schooling discontinuity. The accessibility elasticities derived from statistically significant coefficients (Cakchiquel and K’ekchi for academic failure and Cakchiquel and

Mam for school abandonment) are all negative, which lends support to the hypothesis that better accessibility acts as a proxy for attitudinal modernity and contributes to reducing the incidence of schooling discontinuity. Of particular interest are the relatively high elasticity values of the Cakchiquel, indicating that this variable may be quite important in determining demand for formal education in their communities. The overall elasticity picture suggests that accessibility affects school desertion more than it affects academic failure. The relevant impact of distance on both dependent variables is limited to the Cakchiquel for academic failure (with positive elasticity) and the K’ekchi for school abandonment (with negative elasticity). Proximity to a central location was

Economics of Education Review

68

Table 5. Academic failure elasticities derived from coefficients estimated in Table 3

Ethnic group Independent

variable

Village size Bilingualism Accessibility Distance Child participation Nearby farms Migration *Elasticities

derived

Table 6. School

Independent

K’ekchi

0.42 0.10* -0.98* 0.40* 0.03* 0.06 0.06* from statistically

Mam

0.14* -0.10 -0.02* -0.18* 0.02” 0.25* -0.01 significant

0.05 -0.18* 0.02 0.01 0.25* 0.03* -0.29*

variable

derived

Ethnic K’ekchi

Cakchiquel

-0.33* 0.19* -1.25* -0.27 0.27* 1.26 0.12 from statistically

hypothesized to measure the degree to which contact with the outside world influences people to seek outside-village employment and other opportunities. The paucity of statistically significant coefficients is consistent with the self-imposed isolation of indigenous communities, which responds to cultural factors more than to geographical phenomena (i.e. physical detachment), and has led to enormous language and ethnic diversity among the Guatemala Maya (English, 1983; Nyrop, 1984; Stephen and Wearne, 1984; Suarez, 1983). In other words, it appears that cultural emphasis on maintaining a separate and distinct identity by each community and its people inhibits permanent out-migration and amalgamation to a greater extent than does distance among communities or to a central location such as the county seat. According to the distribution of statistically significant least-squares coefficients, the proxy for influences child participation in agriculture academic failure rates of the Cakchiquel, K’ekchi and Mam, and abandonment rate of the Cakchiquel, all with relatively low, positive elasticities. These results conform to expectations - children who

0.07* o.oo* -0.15 0.11 -0.04 -0.03 -0.01

in Table

4

group

0.64* -0.07* -0.13 -0.27* -0.08 -0.40* -0.05 significant

Quiche

coefficient(s).

desertion elasticities derived from coefficients estimated

Village size Bilingualism Accessibility Distance Child participation Nearby farms Migration *Elasticities

Cakchiquel

Mam

Quiche

-0.09 0.88 -0.40* 0.59 0.02 -0.18* 0.22*

0.31’ -0.05* 0.02 0.23 -0.14 0.25 0.00

coefficient(s).

customarily work in the primary sector seem to perform less satisfactorily in the classroom, and consequently fail exams and other measures of performance more frequently than their nonworking counterpart, probably as a result of engaging, on a part-time basis, in work-related activities (Balderston, 1984) instead of studying, preparing for class, and so forth; at least among the Cakchiquel, they also tend to abandon school altogether and either pursue full-time jobs or help around the home, contributing to household income. K’ekchi and Mam villages exhibit relevant coefficients for the proxy measuring nearby farms hiring labor for cash wages. The positive values of their elasticities for academic failure support the contention that children who may be employed part-time devote less effort to formal education, and thus fail in school more often, relative to their nonworking peers. It is interesting to observe, however, that elasticities for school desertion are negative, which implies that the presence of more farm employers tends to keep children in school longer, perhaps by virtue of offering them a part-time employment alternative that enable them to contribute to house-

Academic Failure and School Desertion

hold income and stay in school. The K’ekchi seem to be more nearby-farm elastic than the Mam, and school abandonment is more sensitive to this variable than is academic failure. The final factor influencing schooling discontinuity considered here pertains to seasonal migration. The empirical evidence shows that the Cakchiquel and Mam record relevant coefficients for academic failure; only the Mam explain school desertion significantly. (It will be recalled that the Mam migrate to coastal areas in search of seasonal employment to a much greater extent than do the other ethnic groups.) The direction of the effect is mixed insofar as both negative and positive elasticities appear and the paucity of relevant coefficients regarding this variable makes it difficult to formulate a meaningful generalization. CONCLUSION Any comprehensive and intellectually stimulating approach to the study of the underlying causes of schooling discontinuity in the Third World must inevitably recognize and deal with numerous littlepedagogic, understood relationships among economic, sociological, anthropological and political variables. Methodological advance must be deliberate and reflective, with constant reference to the full reality of a particular cultural context as well as to the search for theoretical elegance and rigor. The task is hampered by a severe shortage of accurate data of the sort required for useful research on the problem, and consequently the use of this data base, which was originally designed for other purposes. Furthermore, to the extent that schooling discontinuity might be determined simultaneously with child labor and with migration decisions within a broader economic model of household behavior, estimates may be contaminated by simultaneity bias. Additional research is needed in the future regarding correct identification of the variables relevant to household behavior in the Guatemalan highlands. Thus, results at this time should be regarded as preliminary. Despite its many shortcomings, the economic approach to schooling discontinuity determinants employed in this study broadly corroborates the view that the performance of the elementary school system in the Guatemala highlands is systematically affected by village size, which might reflect differences in availability and quality of teaching facilities;

69

level of bilingualism, which might account for diversity in perceptions of curriculum relevance; village accessibility to and from the outside world, a likely proxy for measuring expectations of long-term income gains and enhancement of employment through formal education; and alternatives children’s opportunity cost. The F statistics are highly significant in all instances and the coefficients of multiple determination (R2) indicate that a major portion of the variation in both dependent variables has been successfully explained by the determining proxies under investigation. Although only a few more least-squares coefficients turn out to be significantly different from zero in the academic failure relative to the school desertion equation (of the 56 coefficients for the four ethnic groups in each equation, 25 are significant at the 80% level or better in estimating academic failure, while 21 are significant in estimating school abandonment), a comparison of F statistics and R2 values suggests that the seven variables considered here interpret academic failure rates better than school drop-out rates in all four major indigenous groups. Yet the most important conclusion pertains to the inter-ethnic heterogeneity of empirical findings. Inter-group variations in levels of statistical significance suggest that the four sets of indigenous communities respond differently to identical stimuli. For example, the K’ekchi, with the greatest incidence of academic failure and abandonment of the highlands, exhibit virtually as high (or higher) F and R2 values for both sets of equations as (than) any other group. The Cakchiquel elasticities and statistics seem to respond better to academic failure than to dropping-out, while the opposite appears to be the case for the Mam. With respect to the performance of each individual variable, village size and degree of bilingualism show the greatest concentration of statistically significant least-squares coefficients for both sets of equations; at the other extreme, distance to the county seat records the poorest. The three opportunity cost proxies perform better explaining academic failure than explaining school desertion; they work best for the Mam, moderately for the Cakchiquel and K’ekchi, and not at all for the Quiche. A theoretical framework such as the one developed here can be a valuable tool in providing policymakers with insights into the nature, scope and elements of a pedagogically and economically

70

Economics of Education Review

rational policy directed toward curtailing failure and abandonment. The amount of schooling received by today’s children is likely to shape and constrain their individual options, as well as those of their societies, thus conditioning development patterns, in decades ahead. Whatever elementary education policies are ultimately formulated and implemented in the Guatemala highlands, they must incorporate into their structure features which are unique to each ethnic group. Schooling presumably makes people more receptive to innovation, promotes division of labor, encourages mobility and leads the way to increasingly advantageous input combinations, all of which are eagerly pursued in a Western setting but not necessarily welcome in highly traditional societies almost cantankerous to the outside world, with an all-pervasive sense of magic and the

supernatural, where concern over environmental harmony precludes most common forms of technological development, and where land cultivation is perceived as the ultimate means of communicating with God. Making formal education compatible with these views may be the most formidable challenge facing Guatemala planners in the 21st century. Acknowledgements - This paper was concluded while the senior author was on summer assignment with the International Summer School Program at the University of Cambridge. Support by the University Library, the Alfred Marshall Economics Library, and other research facilities in Cambridge is acknowledged with gratitude. The authors wish to express their appreciation to Drs Michael Richards and Patrick Scott for providing the survey data and helping toward understanding some features of the intricate world of the Guatemala Highlands.

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